India: Dalai Lama's Ladakh visit irks China

The Tibetan spiritual leader arrived in Ladakh, India, on July 15 for a monthlong visit

Given the tense relations between India and China, anything the Dalai Lama says or does in the region gains significance, say experts.

The Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan Buddhist spiritual leader, arrived in India's remote mountainous Ladakh region bordering China last week for a monthlong visit.  

He received a rousing reception, with thousands of people lining up on both sides of the road outside the airport in the cold desert region's town of Leh to welcome him.

"Tibet and Ladakh share rich cultural and religious ties. The people of Ladakh — including Buddhists, Muslims and Christians — have huge respect for His Holiness, the Dalai Lama," Jigmat Paljor, one of Ladakh's leading student and social activists, told DW.

"Buddhists consider him the spiritual head of Buddhism and a living Buddha of compassion. People in Ladakh are overjoyed about his visit," he added.

This is the spiritual leader's first trip outside his base in the northern Indian city of Dharamsala since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

China-India tensions amid border disputes

It's also the first time he has been in Ladakh since New Delhi split the region from disputed Kashmir, scrapping the entire territory's semiautonomous status and taking direct control in 2019.

This is the Dalai Lama's first trip outside his base in northern India since the onset of the pandemic

That move was sharply criticized by Pakistan, as well as China. A year later, Indian and Chinese troops engaged in deadly clashes in Ladakh. They have been locked in a military standoff along their disputed border ever since

The violence — the most serious in decades — has led to a deterioration of China-India relations.

Happymon Jacob, who teaches foreign policy at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, said he wouldn't generally attach much political significance to the visit of the Tibetan spiritual leader. 

"There isn't any great significance that we can attach to the Dalai Lama's Ladakh visit. India has not made such a big issue of Chinese sovereignty as far as Tibet is concerned. In any case, before the onset of the pandemic the Dalai Lama used to visit Ladakh every year," he said.

Nevertheless, he added, "given the difficulties in India-China relations, anything that the Dalai Lama does in that particular region [Ladakh] will be viewed with great significance by the Indians and Chinese."

Chinese troops took over Tibet in 1950 in what Beijing calls a "peaceful liberation." The Dalai Lama fled into exile nine years later following an uprising and has lived in northern India ever since.

Although New Delhi recognizes Tibet as an autonomous region of China, it has several territorial disputes with Beijing elsewhere on its border, which extends 3,500 kilometers (2,200 miles) into the Himalayan region.

Upsetting comments?

Before leaving for Ladakh, the Dalai Lama said: "India and China are most populated countries and neighbors. Sooner or later, you have to solve this problem [border disputes along the Line of Actual Control] through talks and peaceful means."

Pravin Sawhney, one of India's leading defense experts, said the comments would have upset China for three reasons.

"One, they [the Chinese] consider the Dalai Lama as a separatist; two, he is going to a problem area because China does not consider the constitutional changes made by India in the Ladakh region in August 2019 as legitimate; and three, India says the Dalai Lama is a spiritual leader but he made a political-military statement in Jammu," he pointed out.

Though Beijing views the Dalai Lama as a "separatist," he has denied seeking Tibet's independence and says he only advocates substantial autonomy and protection of the region's native Buddhist culture.

Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, said the trip is not viewed positively by Beijing.

"Anything involving the Dalai Lama is political, given how he is perceived by Beijing. The Chinese government objects even if he has brief meetings with Indian officials, and so for him to spend a month in Ladakh — a sensitive region for China — is a move that will certainly not be viewed positively by the Chinese," he said.

'All of us want peace'

How interactions with the Dalai Lama irk Beijing can be seen by how the Chinese government reacted when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to Twitter on July 6, to convey greetings to the spiritual leader on his 87th birthday.

"The Indian side also needs to fully understand the anti-China and separatist nature of the 14th Dalai Lama," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at the time. "It needs to abide by its commitments to China on Tibet-related issues, act and speak with prudence and stop using Tibet-related issues to interfere in China's internal affairs."

India's Foreign Ministry hit back and said: "It has been a consistent policy of our government to treat him as a guest in India and as a respected religious leader who enjoys a large following in India."

India considers Tibet to be part of China, though it hosts Tibetan exiles. Beijing doesn't recognize the Tibetan government-in-exile and hasn't held any dialogue with representatives of the Dalai Lama since 2010.

Ladakh student activist Jigmat Paljor said the Dalai Lama has always been in favor of peace, dialog and reconciliation.

"I endorse his statement that China and India should resolve their border dispute immediately, for we experienced the horrors of warlike situation when the Galwan clashes took place in 2020. All of us want peace."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru

Ticking 'socioeconomic bomb': North Africa's disappearing beaches

The coastline in Maghreb countries is eroding faster than almost anywhere else in the world. But it's not just rising sea levels that are to blame. And the good news is, there are ways to cope.

Beaches are being washed away faster in Tunisia than other Maghreb countries

Over the past 15 years, the fishermen of Ghannouch, a town around 400 kilometers (ca. 250 miles) south of the Tunisian capital, Tunis, say they have seen "radical changes" on the coastline they sail around. 

"The sand is decreasing and the rocks are starting to appear," Sassi Alaya, a local seaman and the head of the fisheries guild in the southern port, told DW. "It is a double problem because the coasts of the state of Gabes are already suffering from environmental pollution due to the chemical factories in the region. It greatly affects the work of small fisheries businesses."

"There are black spots around the coasts now," added Mounir Kcherem, a fisherman from nearby Kerkennah island. "There are huge differences between the coast today and the coast 20 years ago," he said. "Although this phenomenon is still confined to specific places around the island."

The fishing families in southern Tunisia are not the only ones dealing with such changes. A recent study by the World Bankthat looked at the economic consequences of coastal erosion in this area found that countries such as Tunisia, Morocco,Libya and Algeria were losing their beaches faster than almost anywhere else in the world.

Faster than global average

The study concluded that beaches in the Maghreb region eroded at a rate of 15 centimeters per year on average between 1984 and 2016. The global average is about 7 centimeters a year.

It can be hard to work out how much coastline has been lost in a single country because coasts both gain and lose sand, so national averages can be misleading. But it was when World Bank researchers used more detailed data and satellite imagery from the European Space Agency and the National Oceanography Center in the UK, that it became clear just how endangered the Maghreb coastline was in certain areas.

Just over a  third — 38% — of Morocco's beaches are eroding and the country loses between 12 to 14 centimeters a year. Libyan coasts are receding by around 28 centimeters every year. But these are considered comparatively stable compared to Tunisia. There, about a third — 35% — of sandy beaches are also eroding but at the much faster rate of between 50 and 70 centimeters per year.

An estimated 700,000 people are employed by Morocco's fisheries sector

For example, between 2006 and 2019 in Hammamet, a popular tourist town just south of the country's capital Tunis, the beach area halved. That equals a loss of about 24,000 square meters or between 3 and 8 meters every year, experts calculated.

World Bank economists also tried to calculate the value of such losses by working out what lost land and infrastructure on the coast was worth. They found these would be equivalent to about 2.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Tunisia, 0.7% in Libya, 0.4% in Morocco and 0.2% in Algeria. Altogether, this would have been equivalent to around $2.46 billion (€2.42 billion), on the basis of those countries' national income from 2021.

However, as the researchers also noted, "these costs are on the lower side as they do not incorporate other values such as foregone revenues from tourism."

Coastal erosion also has a further knock-on effect: As saltwater encroaches on land, it starts to pollute fresh groundwater, making it saltier. The brackish water can't be used for drinking or agriculture.

Socioeconomic disaster

The potential impact of coastal erosion on sectors like tourism and fishing are like a "socioeconomic bomb" waiting to go off, the writers of an article published by HydroSciences Montpellier, a special laboratory at the University of Montpellier in France that focuses on Mediterranean water resources, said.

"Climate change amplifies other threats and exacerbates underlying vulnerabilities and social risks," Lia Sieghart, the World Bank's practice manager for environment and natural resources for the Middle East and North Africa, told DW. "Marginalized social groups are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. That's why political stabilization and actions on climate change go hand in hand."

The situation in Maghreb countries is also more precarious because of the number of locals living on or near the coast. An estimated 40% of the world's total population lives near the sea.

Around 80% of Libyans live in urban centers, most of which are located on the country's coast

However in Morocco, the percentage of locals living close to the coast is 65% and in Tunisia, it's around 85%. Many of the Maghreb's major cities are located on the coast and in Tunisia, for example, an estimated 90% of the country's economic output happens by the seaside. 

In fact, the increasing urbanization and population pressure at coastlines may well be one of the many reasons for more rapid coastal erosion. Buildings and humans crowd out the natural elements that tend to protect against erosion, such as wetlands, plants and sand dunes.

Rising seas inevitable

Another major reason for the disappearing beaches is obviously rising sea levels. But, as experts told DW, the real reason why Maghreb countries are experiencing some of the worst coastal erosion in the world may actually lie much further inland.

"If there is a difference between the Maghreb and northern Mediterranean countries, then I think it's about the number of dams and the number of rivers," explained Gil Mahe, research director at the Hydrosciences Laboratory in Montpellier, France, who's currently working at the Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer, or INSTM, in Tunisia. Erosion is happening faster here because "there are not a lot of rivers and a lot of dams," Mahe said.

Tunisia has close to 40 dams and is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world

Studies in Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco that investigate the history of sedimentation near where rivers reach the sea, have shown that where there are large dams, not enough sand is arriving on the coast, Mahe explained. The natural geomorphological functioning of a coastline would see sand arrive to bulk up the coastline, then it would be washed out to sea by marine currents.

Pressure on land and at sea

But the Maghreb coastline is under pressure from two elements of climate change. Warmer temperatures are causing sea levels to rise, which encroaches on beaches. It also makes extreme weather events, that can damage the coastline with, for example, floods, huge waves and wind, more frequent.

At the same time, a heating planet also has less rain, which means that local authorities in North Africa are trying to store fresh water wherever they can, in order to provide it to that ever-growing coastal population. This requires more dams. 

Natural buffers against erosion, such as seagrass, are considered the best way to protect coastlines

It sounds like a vicious circle. But Mahe, who is working on various plans to better manage Tunisia's coastline and make it clear to local authorities exactly what is at stake, does have some hope. While a rise in sea levels is now inevitable, he said, there are numerous ways to minmize harmful human impacts and better protect coastlines and to cope with what's coming, until humans and nature "reach a new equilibrium," he argued.

Experts such as Mahe and those at the World Bank recommend what they call "integrated coastal management plans." These can include everything from a higher tax on coastal construction work and real estate, to the renovation of inland dams that allow more sand and sediment to flow toward the coast, to the erection of wind fences on dunes, or replanting plants. 

The World Bank is assisting with some of these plans in the Maghreb, the organization's Sieghart pointed out. "It's true that no country can single-handedly address climate change," she said. But, she added, local reactions are still crucial because "these can help adapt and mitigate climate change impacts."

Edited by: Anne Thomas

Micronesia joins growing Pacific alliance to stop deep-sea mining

The Pacific republic says the potential downside of massive environmental degradation outweighs the positives of extracting minerals from the depths of the ocean.

Micronesian President David Panuelo warned that deep-sea mining could lead

 to the 'systemic collapse' of ecosystems

The scattered islands and atolls of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) are home to fewer than 105,000 people and cover a mere 702 square kilometers (ca. 271 square miles). But the region's territorial waters sprawl across 2.6 million square kilometers of the Pacific Ocean, making it the 14th largest exclusive economic zone in the world. 

The ocean is the lifeblood of these relatively under-developed islands, where the average annual per capita income sits slightly below $4,000 (€3,900), but where successive governments have done what they can to protect their most important resource. So the announcement on July 10 that the FSM was joining the Alliance of Countries for a Deep-Sea Mining Moratorium, unveiled at the United Nations Ocean Conference in Lisbon in late June, was no surprise. 

In a statement issued to DW, FSM President David Panuelo said that mining the depths of the world's oceans for natural resources offers the promise of "significant wealth," but he also cautioned that it could very easily lead to "the systemic collapse of our oceanic ecosystems, resulting in mass starvation and mass environmental destruction."

Environmentalists warn that oceanic ecosystems could collapse

Could create 'abject economic suffering'

That, in turn, would worsen the impacts of climate change and bring about "abject economic suffering to peoples and communities who do not benefit from mining activities but feel their direct impacts," he said.

The alliance was initially set up by the government of Palau, another Pacific island state that stands to be severely impacted by deep-sea mining, in collaboration with the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition and the World Wildlife Fund. It has since also been joined by Fiji and Samoa. 

Signatory nations were provoked into action after Nauru in June 2021 triggered a rule within the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) that requires the regulatory body, the International Seabed Authority (ISA), to approve a plan to exploit seabed resources under the terms of whatever rules are in place within two years of the application. As a result, the ISA could grant permission for exploitation to commence in June of next year. 

The private company that would immediately take advantage of mining permits is Nauru Ocean Research Inc., a subsidiary of Canadian mining startup The Metals Company (TMC). It has long insisted that the deep sea must be mined to obtain minerals such as cobalt, copper, nickel and manganese to meet demand for materials crucial for electric cars and other modern technologies. 

These minerals are available in vast quantities spread across the deepest seabeds of the world in the shape of potato-sized rock concretions known as polymetallic nodules.

Recycling materials as alternative

Environmentalists say that instead of mining the seabed — and potentially causing irreparable damage to marine biodiversity and harming global fisheries — industries should source the metals from the circular economy, meaning recycling it from electronic waste.

To date, the ISA has granted 31 permits for countries and private companies to explore for resources, but not to commercially exploit any that are identified. Duncan Currie, an environmental lawyer who advises the High Seas Alliance, hopes sufficient support can be gathered in the coming months to force the ISA to impose a moratorium on mining. 

The consequences of failing to have a moratorium could be extremely serious, he told DW.

"The 'collector' will dig into the sea floor, we are told, releasing sediment plumes from disturbing the seabed," he said. "These plumes will likely travel considerable distances, possibly hundreds of kilometers, smothering life on and near the sea floor."

After the nodules are brought to the surface, additional sediment will be released back into the ocean, creating additional plumes that experts have suggested will spread over 1,400 kilometers and remain in suspension for as long as a year.

The noise of the operation will affect marine mammals and other sea life hundreds of kilometers away, Currie said, with the permits presently being considered due to last for 30 years but with "almost automatic" 10-year renewals.

'Deeply felt' public opposition

"I think the public opposition to deep-sea mining is widespread, and deeply felt," Currie said. "The challenge is in translating that opposition to the ISA, and the danger is that the mining interests push through their agenda through legal machinations."

"The Law of the Sea Convention was put into place around 40 years ago, in 1982, and was amended at the initiative of developed states in 1994," he pointed out. "Seabed mining is highly legalistic, depending on those two international agreements, regulations and contracts, and once it is started, it will be extremely difficult to stop. It will trigger a one-way race to the bottom of the sea: Once the green light is given through regulations, the damaging new industrial activity will be under way."

Currie said he hopes that the opposition can be galvanized in the same way that international resistance halted plans for mining in the pristine Antarctic wilderness. 

"A moratorium is essential: Without it, history will judge the world harshly,"  FSM leader Panuelo concurred. "Sea-based oil drilling seemed a good enough idea to those seeking wealth that they did it in the Gulf of Mexico, which never positively impacted the Louisiana fishermen who were not consulted on the work and had no agency in the decision to do it," he pointed out. "But they certainly felt the impacts when the Deepwater Horizon spill occurred in 2010."

"It is unlikely we can effectively manage our ocean territory without being aware of the impacts of deep-sea mining, which I believe is an unsustainable solution," he added.

Edited by: Leah Carter 

 

Afghanistan: UN slams killings, torture under Taliban

The security situation in Afghanistan has improved since the Taliban seized power, but this came at a cost, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said in a new report.

The Taliban have rejected claims of rights abuses as baseless

The UN has accused the Taliban of committing hundreds of human rights violations in Afghanistan since taking power  last summer, detailing the abuses in a new report on Wednesday.

"UNAMA is concerned about the impunity with which members of the de facto authorities appear to have carried out human rights violations," said the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan.

The mission said overall the security has improved across the country, but at a cost.

"Our monitoring reveals that despite the improved security situation since 15 August, the people of Afghanistan, in particular women and girls, are deprived of the full enjoyment of their human rights,'' said Markus Potzel, deputy special representative of the secretary-general for Afghanistan.

'Islamic State' affiliate behind deadly attacks

The report said as many as 700 people have been killed and 1,400 wounded since August 2021, when the Taliban claimed the Afghan capital of Kabul.

Most of those casualties were linked to attacks by the Islamic State group's affiliate in the country.

UNAMA, however, also documented 160 allegations of extra judicial killings, 56 incidents of torture and ill treatment and more than 170 arbitrary arrests and detentions against former government officials and security forces.

The Taliban's Ministry of Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice as well as the General Directorate of Intelligence were particularly mentioned in violations.

UNAMA also had 87 reports of violence against women and girls including murder, rape, suicide, forced marriages including child marriage, assault and battery, as well as two cases of honor killings.

In one instance, a couple was publicly stoned to death after being accused of having an affair.

Fiona Frazer, head of the UN's human rights mission in Afghanistan, said "impunity prevails" and warned there might be underreporting of allegations.

Human rights violations also affected 173 journalists and media workers, 163 of which were attributed to Taliban authorities, including 122 arbitrary arrests and 33 instances of threats.

Taliban deny accusations of rights abuses

The Taliban have rejected the report's findings, calling them baseless.

"Arbitrary arrests and extrajudicial killing are not allowed," Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Taliban government, wrote on Twitter.

He added anyone found guilty of such violations will be considered a criminal and dealt with according to Shariah, or Islamic law.

The Taliban said they had began a process of purging their ranks of elements that did not fully follow instructions.

lo/dj (AP, AFP, Reuters)

Turkey rejects blame for deadly Iraq shelling

Iraqi officials have blamed Turkey for an airstrike on the Kurdistan region that killed at least eight tourists. But Turkey has distanced itself from the shelling, saying it was a "terror attack."

Officials said the victims died before reaching a hospital

Artillery shelling on Iraq's autonomous region of Kurdistan killed at least eight civilians and wounded 20 others, local officials said on Wednesday, blaming the attack on Turkey.

The "fierce artillery bombing" hit a tourist resort in Zakho, a city on the border between Iraq's Kurdistan region and Turkey, state TV said.

The Kurdish health minister said children, including a 1-year-old, were among the victims, adding that they all died before reaching a hospital. All the victims were Iraqi tourists from other regions. 

Witnesses spoke of horror as tour groups were vacationing in the area at the time of the attack. 

Iraq points finger at Turkey

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi condemned the harm caused to "the life and security of Iraqi citizens" and reserved Iraq's right to retaliate.

"Turkish forces have perpetrated once more a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty," he said on Twitter.

Al-Kadhimi's office said the Iraqi armed forces were holding an emergency meeting to discuss "the repercussions of the Turkish aggression."

Turkey regularly carries out strikes on the Kurdistan region as part of its long-running crackdown on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Ankara considers a terrorist organization.

Turkey denies involvement

The Turkish Foreign Ministry referred to the airstrike as a "terror attack" and expressed

condolences to Iraq. 

Ankara went on to urge Iraqi officials to avoid making statements influenced by "terrorist organization propaganda," an apparent reference to the PKK. 

The ministry added that Turkey was ready to cooperate in investigating the attack.

An earlier statement from Turkey's Defense Ministry said two Kurdish militants had surrendered to a Turkish security point at the Habur border crossing, about 10 kilometers (16 miles) from Zakho — but made no mention of the shelling. 

UN, US emphasize Iraqi sovereignty

The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq called for a "thorough investigation" and urged "all parties" to cease violations. 

"Civilians are once again suffering the indiscriminate effects of explosive weapons," it said in a statement, adding that it "emphasizes that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Iraq must be respected at all times."

The US State Department also echoed the UN office, saying: "We reaffirm our position that military action in Iraq should respect Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity."

Spokesman John Kirby told reporters that Washington also emphasizes "the importance of ensuring civilians are protected," while refusing to further comment on the matter. 

Turkey's offensive in northern Iraq

Turkey launched a new offensive in northern Iraq in April against the PKK. Ankara justified the operation by saying it was protecting itself against terrorist attacks and it had the right to self-defense.

The EU and the US also list the PKK as a terrorist organization.

The group has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984. The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

The PKK's presence in the region has hampered vital trade relations between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey, while Ankara's military operations have complicated its relations with Baghdad.

Turkey has also extended its crackdown to the broader Kurdish movement in Turkey itself, including the imprisonment of political leaders and the attempted ban of the People's Democratic Party (HDP). 

 

 

 

How can European countries slash their gas consumption?

All eyes are on Nord Stream 1 and whether Putin will keep the gas tap back on. What measures can Russian-gas-dependent countries like Germany and Italy do to cut their consumption? A look to the Netherlands might help.

Critics say Russian President Vladimir Putin has weaponized gas deliveries, 

which many European countries depend on

For millions, it's a moment of truth: Russian gas again began flowing through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline on Thursday, and across Europe, officials will be eying whether deliveries keep up at expected levels.  

Many European countries have already been preparing for the possibility of a complete cut since Russia sharply reduced gas flows in mid-June, and with zero gas flow during a period of annual pipeline maintenance that started on July 11.

Governments are considering a raft of measures to head off a crisis that is feared could touch off a recession. That includes changing consumer behavior, a measure that has not been fully tapped — except perhaps in one country.

Netherlands successfully slashes gas consumption

Since the start of the year, the Netherlands has managed to reduce its gas consumption by about a third.

That's more than twice the reduction seen in neighboring Germany, of about 14% from January through May; and vastly more than the reduction of not even 2% in Italy during the same time.

All three countries, among numerous others in Europe, are heavily dependent on natural gas, including Russian gas, for their energy mix.

Rene Peters, a gas expert with Dutch research organization TRO, boils the Dutch success down to three main factors: an unusually mild winter, bringing coal-fired power plants back online and a large reduction in gas consumption.

Replacing gas with coal energy and the warm winter accounted for perhaps 5% to 10% of the decrease, he explained. "But the biggest impact is the reduction of the use of gas by both households and industry," he said.

The Dutch government launched a large-scale campaign calling on households and companies to reduce their gas consumption back in April.

Under the motto "zet de knop om," or "turn the knob down," citizens were asked to heat their homes less. This was accompanied by additional incentives to insulate homes and commercial buildings better, as well as purchase more energy-efficient equipment.

Reducing gas in energy production, industry, households

In the broader European context, other countries are likely to reach for similar resorts, explained Ben McWilliams, an energy research analyst at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel.

Burning coal instead of gas to generate electricity is, "from an economic perspective, the low-hanging fruit; from a climate perspective, it's obviously difficult and challenging."

A return to coal is painful for many European countries, which have made substantial 

progress on transitions to renewables

For the industrial sector, a reduction in gas translates to curtailment, namely ramping down production. "That's where you see the big economic costs and the potential recession."

Households, which make up the third largest sector for gas use, may see quick gains by turning the thermostat down and undertaking quick-fix insulation.

In terms of immediate action, politicians can "just be completely honest with people," McWilliams said.

"Explain to them already now that particularly in the winter, every molecule of gas a household is able to save, saves jobs and ultimately saves us from a recession."

Public awareness campaigns like the one in the Netherlands have also been launched in Belgium and Germany, for example. Italy is planning one imminently.

Public campaign one crucial piece

"This type of campaign can and should be replicated in Italy," said Francesca Andreolli, a researcher with Rome-based climate change think tank ECCO.

Andreolli noted that people have already been implementing energy-savings actions in response to high prices. She described how a public awareness campaign, like one many countries including Italy ran for mask-wearing and vaccination during theCOVID-19 pandemic, could emphasize economic savings and solidarity.

The Dutch campaign to 'turn the knob down' reduced gas use by perhaps

 one-fifth in the Netherlands

In an analysis of how Italy can reduce its dependency on Russian gas, ECCO described how reducing heating temperatures by 2 degrees Celsius (about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), combined with measures to reduce heat wastage and working from home, could provide potential energy savings of 15% compared to current use.

For the summer, quick energy savings include limiting cooling interior temperatures to 27 degrees Celsius. Although such a policy is already in place for public buildings, ECCO is calling for it to be applied to all buildings, public as well as private.

Longer-term measures include replacing gas boilers with heat pumps and ramping up renewables in the energy mix; the Netherlands has long had such programs underway, which had set the stage for its successful reduction in energy use.

On the public campaign in the Netherlands, Peters pointed out that such efforts are most effective "when they induce a structural behavioral change for long term."

Eliminate harmful subsidies and address energy poverty

Andreolli also pointed out problems with a reduction in VAT, or value-added tax, on gas from 22% to 5%, which the Italian government implemented in October 2021 and then extended through the third quarter of 2022.

"In the end, it's a subsidy for wealthy people who consume more than lower-income households," she said.

Some experts make the criticism that reducing VAT on fuel is a regressive tax that helps 

rich families more than poor

Indeed, there is a shadow side to reduced energy consumption, namely that it unveils energy poverty, added Peters.

"Did people start to suffer from lower temperatures because they couldn't pay for the energy?" he said, pointing to a problematic finding in a TNO study that about 8% of households spent more than a tenth of their income on energy, an indication of energy poverty.

In both the Netherlands and Italy, as well as in other countries, governments have been providing targeted rebates to lower-income households. Such policies are crucial to protecting those particularly vulnerable in the looming energy crisis, experts agree.

Winter is coming

Europe-wide, there seems to be a consensus that measures like ramping coal use back up — or even Germany pushing back its nuclear phaseout, scheduled to be completed this year — are all on the table, despite the pain they cause in reversing progress on the EU's ongoing energy transition.

Ramping up renewable energies like solar and wind is a longer-term solution 

to breaking free from Russian gas

And indeed, perhaps the moment for energy savings has come. On Wednesday, as the EU moved from an "early warning" to "alert" stage on energy, the European Commission released emergency plans to immediately reduce gas demand by 15% in the EU.

The policy proposal, with the self-explanatory title "Save Gas For a Safe Winter," showed that in addition to promoting enhanced usage monitoring, the Commission believes all public buildings should be required to stick to temperature limits for heating and cooling.

Full disruption of Russian gas supply could result in the EU falling short of its 80% target for winter storage of gas, a leaked draft of the paper found, instead landing "as low as 65% to 71%."

Should Putin turn the Nord Stream 1 tap off again, even gas-dependent countries will be fine for now, as they have for the most part managed to secure other sources, including liquid natural gas, to cover present consumption. But not having topped off gas storage reserves presents a major problem for winter.

"I find that we're all too complacent in Europe and we don't really prepare," said McWilliams.

Making some sacrifices in summer could go some distance to preparing for a cold winter in Europe, he added.

"We need to take the situation seriously and do everything we can to reduce gas demand to get ready."