It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thursday, July 21, 2022
Lula courts Brazil's farmers ahead of vote, angering environmentalists
Reuters
Ricardo Brito and Lisandra Paraguassu
Publishing date:Jul 21, 2022 •
BRASILIA — Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is luring allies from Brazil’s powerhouse farm sector to his presidential campaign, looking to fracture his rival’s base in a move that risks tensions with his own environmentalist supporters.
Agribusiness made big strides under Lula’s 2003-2010 government, but right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro has made a powerful connection with rural interests, vowing to push Brazil’s farming frontier deeper into the Amazon rainforest.
In contrast, Lula has promised “net zero deforestation” in Brazil within four years, bringing his rhetoric in line with greener thinking in Latin America’s leftist circles.
Still, in the capital Brasilia last week, Lula raised eyebrows by shoring up relationships with traditional farming interests, endorsing a Senate run by lawmaker Neri Geller, vice-president of the congressional farm caucus, and meeting with Senator Carlos Favaro, who also has strong agribusiness ties.
Geller, who was farm minister under Lula’s chosen successor Dilma Rousseff, told Reuters he saw more farm industry allies coming out for him, including Brazil’s “Soy King” Blairo Maggi, another ex-farm minister criticized as an apologist for deforestation.
Despite Lula’s double-digit lead over Bolsonaro ahead of the October election, many big names in agribusiness remain shy about talks with the leftist leader. Several farm industry leaders declined to answer Reuters’ questions about their conversations with the Lula campaign.
After meeting with Lula, Geller and Favaro took heat from a farm lobby group in their home state Mato Grosso, highlighting the hazards of breaking with Bolsonaro in farm country.
Lula also got blowback from the left over the meetings. Green advocates distrust Geller for trying to loosen environmental licensing and Favaro for pushing a bill to buy time for farmers and ranchers accused of invading public lands.
Lula’s former Environment Minister Marina Silva told newspaper Folha de S.Paulo that alliances with lawmakers such as Geller and Favaro would “maintain the country’s status as environmental pariah.”
Another former environment minister, Izabella Teixeira, who has helped to put together Lula’s government program, took a more pragmatic view.
“First you have to win the election, and these are arrangements that make the election viable,” she told Reuters. “Another thing will be politics after the election.” (Reporting by Ricardo Brito and Lisandra Paraguassu Writing by Ana Mano Editing by Brad Haynes and Jane Merriman)
A commission creating new electoral ridings in Alberta is set to travel across the province this fall to hear from Albertans on their proposed redistricting.
Calgarians vote at Sunnyside School in the 2021 federal election last September.
The federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Alberta is planning to host 24 in-person hearings across the province starting in September to hear from residents about concerns or comments they may have in regards to proposed electoral ridings that they released last month . Justice Bruce McDonald, commission chair, said they began looking at the ridings in February and have heard from members of the public throughout their process.
“We’ve been getting lots of comments and requests to make presentations at one or more of the on-site hearings,” said McDonald. “Once we have all these submissions in, we then, in the month of October and November, we’ll consider it all and we’ll make changes to our proposal and then turn it into our report to Parliament.”
The commission has proposed the creation of three new ridings in Alberta to adjust for population growth. One of those new ridings would be Calgary McKnight, which would be in the city’s northeast, while another new riding would be created by grouping together Airdrie and Chestermere. Each of Calgary’s remaining electoral ridings would be adjusted to keep populations close to the benchmark quota of 115,206 residents.
A third new riding, Spruce Grove-Leduc, has been proposed outside of Edmonton while several ridings within the capital would be overhauled or adjusted to ensure each riding remains within the City of Edmonton boundaries.
To get further input on their proposal, McDonald’s three-member commission will travel to northern Alberta first to start consultations in Grande Prairie in Sept. 6. They will then travel to Peace River, Fort McMurray, St. Paul, Lloydminster and Medicine Hat before they hold several sessions in Edmonton. They will continue to travel across Alberta for several weeks, including three hearings in Calgary on Sept. 19 and 20. If there is interest, there will be a virtual hearing in October.
McDonald said after the public consultations are complete, they will submit a report to Parliament before Alberta MPs are given a chance for input before a final edition is submitted, leading the way for new electoral ridings ahead of the next election.
Proposed boundaries of Calgary federal ridings, including the new Calgary McKnight riding. A portion of the proposed Airdrie-Chestermere riding is also shown.
“You’d be surprised how many times you get suggestions about the names,” said McDonald. “Some of these suggestions were very good and they’ll be incorporated. We’re just waiting to hear from more.”
McDonald stressed that the movement of boundaries occurs every 10 years and that it is done without politics involved. The boundaries are adjusted to accommodate for population growth and movement as well as to ensure communities of interest are intact and represented.
He said the commission does not have access to polling data when they make their suggestions and that there is a commission for each province.
Wednesday's letters: Alberta taxpayers shouldn't pay for papal visit
The more I consider the egregious spending behind the papal visit, the more infuriated I end up. Consider the $20 million contributed by the province, for a goodwill tour by a religious figure. Regardless of what religious institution he represents, this should not be taxpayer-funded. If the Catholic Church, and even its Alberta-based congregations, would like to raise money, fine.
Pope Francis recites the Angelus noon prayer from the window of his studio overlooking St.Peter's Square, at the Vatican, Sunday, July 3, 2022.
What message does this send to the population of Alberta when health-care funding is cut, and mental health care is all but unaffordable? The recent NDP freedom of information request revealed record numbers of instances without ambulances available. That we can spend tens of millions of dollars to have the representative of an institution that has covered up child abuse for decades, if not longer, is disgusting. This isn’t even taking into account the cultural genocide committed against the Indigenous peoples of Canada.
This is a complete misspending of public funds, at best, and a complete moral misstep.
Brad Lawson, Edmonton
These are the personal observations of one single Canadian voter — that’s all.
Whether you agree or disagree is fine with me.
A couple of elections ago, the Conservative Party had a new leader, a guy I knew little about, except for the fact that he was from Saskatchewan and had been Speaker of the House of Commons.
It’s a job that takes a reasonable amount of fairness and balance, so I thought I’d follow the guy — Regina MP Andrew Scheer — on Twitter and see what he was about.
Not everybody is a fan of Twitter, but I find that the format is useful as starting point — the limited space per tweet means you can get a glimpse of politicians’ direction and follow up on their policies afterwards.
And, back in 2017, I thought Scheer was electable — his Twitter feed then, and his attendant policies, seemed centre-right enough to garner broad-based support. He was measured. Balanced. Reasonable.
For some reason, I didn’t stop following Scheer on Twitter after he left the Conservative leadership and came close to politically vanishing.
His tweets either dried up or seemed inconsequential enough that I can’t remember a single one … until the latest Conservative leadership campaign, when a different version of Andrew Scheer appeared.
I’m having trouble reconciling the Andrew Scheer whose Twitter feed I’m still following now with the Andrew Scheer who I followed when he was the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
In other words, would the real Andrew Scheer please stand up?
Scheer is only one example of a dramatic swing in style — but he’s the example that occurred to me when his account tweeted out a solid red background with silhouetted black barbed wire and a prison camp tower with the slogan “SOCIALISM: IDEAS SO GOOD THAT THEY HAVE TO BE MANDATORY.”
(I’m not even going to go into the weeds on the peculiarity of a politician — representing a riding in the province that is the home of Canadian socialized medicine — equating access to health care for all to being inmates of a prison camp.)
His Twitter feed now is anchored by a pinned tweet on Internet legislation that says, “I’m not sure how long the government will let this video stay up.” (It’s scaremongering that — spoiler alert — has been untouched by the evil government on Scheer’s Twitter feed for more than a month.)
The tone of his Twitter feed is completely different than it was.
Like I said, these are the views of one Canadian voter, and not even a voter from Scheer’s riding of Regina-Qu’Appelle.
But I would say this — I felt the 2017 edition of Andrew Scheer was electable as a national candidate. The Andrew Scheer of 2022? Not so much. (Obviously, his own riding, where he took 62 per cent of the vote in the 2021 federal election, feels differently.)
There are, of course, a couple of ways to look at this change.
One might be that Scheer, when campaigning to be prime minister, was merely masquerading as a centre-right candidate because that’s what was considered electable, and his views were actually different from his onstage persona.
Another explanation is that that Scheer has a nose for which way the wind is blowing inside his own party and his own province, and is trying on a new set of ideological clothes to better suit what he thinks that audience wants.
Or maybe it’s more baldly political and strategic — maybe Scheer feels that by hitching his wagon to the Pierre Poilievre campaign (Scheer now retweets plenty of Poilievre’s hot takes in addition to being a steadfast Poilievre supporter), he can find a more influential position within the party he used to run.
All three are understandable, I suppose, but each are also unsettling for their own reasons.
Maybe that’s why I tire of so many politicians — of all political stripes — so quickly.
I can’t help but wonder — if Canada had elected Andrew Scheer to be prime minister all those years ago (something that certainly could have happened) which one would we have gotten?
Russell Wangersky is the editor in chief of the Regina Leader-Post and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix. He can be reached at rwangersky@postmedia.com.
MEDICAL MARIJUANA/CBD OIL
Moscow says US must respect Russian law in Griner case
MOSCOW (AP) — The spokesperson for Russia's Foreign Ministry lashed out Thursday at the United States characterizing basketball star Brittney Griner's jailing on drug charges as “wrongful detention,” saying it shows disrespect for Russian law.
Griner has been jailed since she was arrested in mid-February at a Moscow airport after vape canisters containing cannabis oil were found in her luggage. The Phoenix Mercury standout and two-time Olympic gold medalist acknowledged in court this month that she had the canisters, but said she had no intent to break the law.
She faces up to 10 years in prison if convicted. Her trial is scheduled to resume Tuesday.
The State Department in May designated Griner as wrongfully detained, moving her case under the supervision of its special presidential envoy for hostage affairs - effectively, the government’s chief hostage negotiator.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Thursday that the legalization of cannabis for medical and recreational use in parts of the U.S. has no bearing on what happens in Russia.
“If a U.S. citizen was taken in connection with the fact that she was smuggling drugs, and she does not deny this, then this should be commensurate with our Russian, local laws, and not with those adopted in San Francisco, New York and Washington,” Zakharova said.
“You understand, if drugs are legalized in the United States, in a number of states, and this is done for a long time, and now the whole country will become drug-addicted, this does not mean that all other countries are following the same path,” she added.
Russian media have persistently speculated that Griner could be exchanged for prominent Russian arms trader Viktor Bout, who is imprisoned in the United States, and that Paul Whelan, an American imprisoned in Russia for espionage, may also figure in an exchange.
U.S. officials have not commented on the prospects for such a trade. Russian officials have said no exchange could be discussed until the conclusion of the legal proceedings against Griner. It is unclear how long the trial will last, but a court has authorized Griner's detention until Dec. 20.
Rebecca Moon
Thu, July 21, 2022
While exploring a planetarium in China, an 8-year-old boy was outraged to discover that an educational video about the Long March rockets contained numerous inaccuracies.
On Saturday, Yan Hongsen and his father visited a planetarium in Lhasa, Tibet, an autonomous region of China. When approaching an educational film that was being played for visitors, Yan noticed that it contained numerous factual errors.
In a video that has gone viral on Weibo, Yan is seen angrily pointing out that the educational film had misidentified the Long March 3 rocket as the Long March 5.
“What are they showing here! How can they caption this as Long March 5? This is Long March 3!” the boy angrily said.
The video clip has garnered over 4.3 million views and 48,000 likes since being uploaded on Monday.
Yan’s father explained that the 8-year-old has been a space enthusiast since he was 4 years old after watching “the launch of the Venezuelan Remote Sensing Satellite-2 at the Jiuquan satellite launch center.” He often makes cardboard rocket models and purportedly teaches online classes for other space enthusiasts.
“He became interested in space science as a result of the rocket launch. And because of space science, he fell in love with astronomy and military affairs,” Yan’s father told South China Morning Post. “It’s a strength of his that he can study in his spare time, even while eating, going to the bathroom, in the car or on the bus.”
After the video went viral across Chinese social media, the planetarium explained that they had received the feedback and would take the advice “seriously.” They also thanked Yan for his corrections and stated that the mistakes would be revised immediately.
Steve Dent/Engadget
Steve Dent
·Contributing Reporter
Tue, July 19, 2022
The biggest news in the camera industry this month is that Nikon is reportedly halting development of new SLR cameras, marking the end of a 63-year run. From now on, it will focus exclusively on mirrorless Z mount models like the Z6, Z50 and recently-launched Z9 flagship.
This is a seismic industry change, as Nikon has a storied history with SLRs going back to the iconic Nikon F launched in 1959. But it’s not the only company going in this direction: Canon already confirmed that the EOS-1DX Mark III will be its final flagship DSLR, and Sony moved to selling only mirrorless cameras last year.
Until recently, reflex cameras were regarded as a better option than mirrorless for action photography, so what happened? Simply put, mirrorless models improved so dramatically over the past couple of years that they rendered DSLRs moot.
A lot of pro photographers are holding onto their DSLRs, and the main reason is speed. As we explained several years ago in our Upscaled series, reflex cameras have dedicated autofocus sensors under the mirror. They’re extremely fast, so they allow for high burst shooting speeds with accurate focus on each shot. Canon’s 1DX III, for example, can shoot at up to 16 fps with AF and auto exposure enabled.
Many serious shooters still prefer an optical viewfinder, too. They want a subject view they can trust and believe that a physical view via a prism and mirror is superior to an artificial electronic display. The drawback, of course, is that you can’t see the image when you shoot it because the mirror lifts up to block the display.
The last big thing is battery life and handling: Flagship DSLRs have heavy bodies and big grips that make for stable shooting platforms, particularly with the massive telephoto lenses used by sports and wildlife photographers. They’re also covered with dials and buttons for easier handling. And the optical viewfinder obviously doesn’t drain the battery, so DSLRs can shoot many more photos on a charge.
That’s been true even until recently, but the latest mirrorless cameras have allayed most of those concerns. The most important change has been the introduction of stacked sensors. Those have much faster readout speeds that allow for rapid burst shooting and more accurate autofocus. They also produce less rolling shutter in electronic mode, reducing skew in photos and wobble in video.
Canon’s EOS R3 is a great example of that. It’s a bit slower than the 1DX Mark III DSLR in mechanical shutter mode but far faster with the electronic shutter, and delivers more resolution. Sony’s A1 is even more impressive, letting you fire off 50-megapixel RAW frames at 30 frames per second.
Perhaps the most vivid display of stacked sensor power is Nikon’s new flagship Z9. It lets you shoot RAW 46-megapixel images at 20 fps with the electronic shutter and doesn’t even have a mechanical shutter. By comparison, Nikon’s flagship D6 DSLR can handle 14 RAW images per second, but at 21 megapixels, they’re less than half the resolution.
The viewfinder issue is also largely resolved. Not long ago, mirrorless EVFs tended to be laggy, low resolution and choppy, while sharing a problematic issue with DSLRS – the viewfinder would black out when you took the picture. Now, all three of the above models have sharp and fast OLED display switch smooth refresh rates of at least 120Hz and up to 240Hz. And all offer blackout-free shooting in most conditions. All that arguably gives professionals a view superior to an optical viewfinder.
Finally, cameras like Nikon’s Z9 and the Canon R3 are just as substantial as their DSLR counterparts and match them control for control. And if you want a professional camera that isn’t huge, Sony offers small, great-handling cameras like the A1 and A9.
Battery life is still an issue for mirrorless cameras next to DSLRs, though. The Nikon D6 can shoot a colossal 3,580 shots on a charge, while the Z9 is CIPA rated for just 770 – and that’s very high for a mirrorless camera. For the time being, mirrorless will always be at a disadvantage, but the situation is improving.
All told, with those key improvements in stacked sensors, improved EVFs and better handling, mirrorless models can now go toe to toe with DSLR cameras. In nearly every other category, however, they’re actually superior.
Take autofocus. Though DSLRs have fast dedicated phase-detect AF sensors, mirrorless models have many more phase-detect pixels directly on the main sensor. In Canon’s case, every single pixel is used for AF. That allows for quicker and more accurate autofocus, in theory.
With their hybrid phase- and contrast-detect pixels directly on the sensor, modern mirrorless cameras also win on AI smarts. Most can do subject, face and eye detection with humans, birds, animals, cars and more. That’s particularly useful for action photography to track fast moving subjects – an area that has traditionally been dominated by reflex cameras. And with the latest processors and stacked sensors, these features are finally good enough to use in real-world pro shooting.
As mentioned, some of the best mirrorless cameras now eliminate the viewfinder blackout that plagues DSLRs. And the stacked sensors also heavily reduce rolling shutter that can result in wonky, distorted photos. They’re now good enough to allow shooting of fast-moving subjects, with the advantage of being silent if you’re working at a golf tournament, for example.
Perhaps the biggest benefit is video. Photographers in many different areas are being asked to do that on top of photos, whether they do weddings or work for major news and sporting agencies.
DSLRs like Canon’s 5D helped prompt the trend to shooting high-quality video with consumer cameras and recent models like the 1DX III can handle video well. However, by and large, mirrorless models are superior. Nikon’s Z9, the Canon R3 and Sony A1 can stand up to most cinema cameras, making them true double threats. That’s thanks to the incredible video autofocus systems, resolutions up to 8K, RAW video capture, top-notch audio capabilities and more.
On top of all that, most mirrorless cameras (unlike DSLRs) have in-body stabilization so you don’t need to worry about having that feature on the lens. And speaking lenses, those designed for mirrorless cameras tend to be smaller, lighter and optically superior, because the back is closer to the sensor.
Then there’s the issue of price and cost. Mirrorless cameras are less complex than DSLRs, so they tend to be cheaper. Nikon’s Z9, for instance, costs $1,000 less than the D6, and the Canon EOS R3 is $500 cheaper than the 1DX Mark III.
Finally, with the decline of the camera market kicked off by smartphones, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for manufacturers to build both DSLRs and mirrorless cameras. Now, they appear to be concentrating on one technology in the interests of profitability.
Wrap-up
Photographers may feel sad that DSLRs appear to be coming to the end of their road, particularly if they just bought one. Don’t panic yet, though – while Nikon and Canon appear to have stopped designing new DSLRs and lenses, they’ll continue to manufacture and sell existing models.
The key thing driving this is that mirrorless has not just caught up to, but will soon blow past reflex mirror tech. For example, Sony recently unveiled new sensors that can gather double the light of current stacked sensors, paving the way for fast shooting, even in low light. And you can expect much faster image processors, better EVFs and smarter AF systems in the near future.
In other words, future mirrorless tech could make you forget that digital cameras ever had mirrors inside. Then, we may only ever see them in their original glory – with a roll of film inside.
China property: refusing to pay mortgages is a powerful political weapon
Chinese president Xi Jinping tends to get his way. But there is one rare group that even he cannot control. China’s angry homeowners are furious at floundering property developers. Local banks will probably have to foot the bill to keep Xi’s policies intact.
Beijing’s crackdown on its indebted property market was undeterred by a string of developer defaults and nearly a hundred billion dollars of value lost in Chinese property company high-yield bonds. But protests by China’s middle class could unravel the government’s efforts.
The problem for Chinese developers is that protests are accompanied by rapidly spreading boycotts on mortgage payments in nearly 100 cities. The first group of affected homebuyers are the ones who have already paid an estimated Rmb2tn ($296bn) for homes that developers failed to deliver because of financial troubles. Falling property prices mean that anger, and boycotts, could soon spread to homeowners who are paying steep payments for houses whose values have fallen.
Xi is months away from securing a historic third term in office. Addressing social discontent is crucial. Unrest among ordinary homeowners could threaten the foundation of his push for “common prosperity”.
Local banks will therefore be leaned on to fill in the financial gaps. The sector, which is already dealing with a rise in its bad debt balance, will probably have to absorb the losses from boycotted mortgage payments.
However, the country’s roughly 4,000 local banks already have suffered a run on deposits in the past year thanks to the effects of the poor property market. They do not have the resources to deal with such losses.
Historically, the largest local state-owned banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) have bailed out smaller banks, often by buying stakes in the local banks. That may not happen this time. Shares of the largest banks, including ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank, are down this year. They trade at just a third of their book value, less than half that of regional peers such as HSBC.
Local lenders are heavily exposed and need help. Combined, they have an estimated $6.8tn in outstanding real-estate loans. That equates to about a third of the total loans for the largest banks. The trend could mark a bad start to Xi’s third term.
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Molly Smith
Wed, July 20, 2022
US Mortgage Applications Drop to Lowest Level Since Early 2000
(Bloomberg) -- A measure of US mortgage applications to buy or refinance a home fell to the lowest since the turn of the millennium in the latest sign of sluggish housing demand.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s market index dropped in the week ended July 15 to the lowest since February 2000, data released Wednesday showed. The group’s measure of home purchase applications fell for a third week to a more than two-year low.
The housing market has been cooling off as mortgage rates near the highest since 2008 compound affordability challenges. Separate data Wednesday showed existing-home sales fell for a fifth month in June to a two-year low.
US Housing Affordability Is Set to Drop to 2007 Levels This Year, S&P Says
Maria Paula Mijares Torres, Bloomberg News Jul 20, 2022
A "For Sale" outside a house in Hercules, California. , Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- Housing affordability is set to worsen to levels last seen early in the financial crisis as rising mortgage rates compound high prices, according to S&P Global Ratings.
By the end of this year, mortgage payments will make up 28% of income for the typical first-time buyer -- the highest since the first quarter of 2007 -- assuming a 10% down payment, S&P North American Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino said in a report. Mortgages shouldn’t exceed 25% of income to be considered affordable, per guidelines from the National Association of Realtors.
That threshold has already been breached for low- and middle-income buyers and will remain “well above” it through 2025, leaving 60% of US households out of the market, S&P said.
“High home purchase prices don’t necessarily mean that homes have become unaffordable, but after over a decade of relatively benign home purchase conditions, our analysis of housing market conditions shows affordability has worsened in recent years,” the report said.
The housing market is coming off its boil as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates, which has sent mortgage rates up near the highest level since 2008. That’s crowding out buyers who were already struggling with record prices.
For prospective homebuyers, that means signing a contract could be decades away. By the fourth quarter of 2022, it’ll take 11.3 years for a first-time buyer with median income to save for a 10% down payment, and twice as long for 20%, S&P said. Before the pandemic, each took half as long.
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
In Harvard study of Jan. 6 rioters, top motivation is clear: Trump
Researchers at Harvard University who conducted the largest study yet of what motivated Jan. 6 rioters say the data is clear: The most common responses focused on former President Donald Trump and his lies about the election.
The study, which was shared with NBC News ahead of its publication, logged and analyzed the motives of 417 Capitol rioters, all of whom have been charged in relation to Jan. 6. The motives were derived from 469 documents filed to the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, including charging documents and sentencing memoranda.
The researchers from the Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University wrote that the documents make clear that Jan. 6 committee member Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., “was mostly correct in her assessment” that “Trump summoned the mob, assembled the mob and lit the flame of this attack.”
“Far and away, we find that the two most commonly-cited reasons for breaching the US Capitol were a desire to support Trump on January 6th in DC and concerns about election integrity,” the report reads.
The report adds to evidence from thousands of court documents in the more than 840 cases brought forward so far that many of those who stormed the U.S. Capitol and committed violent acts were motivated by their support for Trump and their belief in lies about the 2020 election.
A plurality of rioters cited either their support for Trump (20.6%) or Trump’s false belief that the election had been stolen (also 20.6%) as their primary motivation for their actions that led to charges on Jan. 6.
The third most frequently listed reason defendants gave to law enforcement for entering the Capitol was their belief that they were participating in “revolution, civil war, or secession.”
About the same number of defendants in the study claimed they were at the Capitol to “peacefully protest” (7%) as those who claimed they were there because of a “general interest in violence” (6.2%).
The report, written by Joan Donovan, director of Harvard University’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy, and Kaylee Fagan and Frances Lee, research assistants at Shorenstein, is an analysis of “the largest and most far-reaching publicly available archive of social media posts, private messages, and direct quotes attributed to the members of the mob: their court documents.”
The report includes specific social media posts from rioters in the days before Jan. 6 that pinpoint Trump as a primary cause of mayhem. The Harvard study also notes the most-shared links among the more than 400 Capitol rioters included in the analysis.
The second-most-shared link by defendants was a Dec. 22, 2021, Facebook video posted by then-President Trump, in which he makes baseless accusations of voter fraud for over 14 minutes.
“When we were crafting a research question, we really wanted to answer, ‘What motivated Jan. 6 defendants to go inside the Capitol?’” Donovan said.
The documents were produced by either FBI agents or law enforcement and include both people’s stated motivations for going to the Capitol that day, as well as some of their social media history that the officers believed was relevant to their arrest.
Kelly Meggs, a member of the far-right militant group The Oath Keepers, cited then-President Trump’s tweet on Dec. 18 telling fans to “be there, will be wild!” in a Facebook post the same day.
“Trump said It’s gonna be wild!!!!!!! It’s gonna be wild!!!!!!!” Meggs wrote. “He wants us to make it WILD that’s what he’s saying. He called us all to the Capitol and wants us to make it wild!!! Sir Yes Sir!!!”
Meggs was later charged with seditious conspiracy by the Department of Justice for storming the Capitol on Jan. 6.
Daniel “D.J” Rodriguez, the California Trump supporter who was captured on multiple videos driving a stun gun into the neck of D.C. Metropolitan Police Officer Mike Fanone, admitted to the FBI that he did what was shown on video.
After Rodriguez was arrested by the FBI in late March 2021, he waived his Miranda rights and gave the FBI an in-depth view into how he ended up committing a violent act on an officer. (After he confessed, Rodriguez’s attorneys unsuccessfully attempted to get his confession suppressed from a potential trial. He has entered a not guilty plea in his case, but remains held until trial because of the overwhelming evidence against him.)
“It’s very stupid and ignorant, and I see that it’s a big joke, that we thought that we were going to save this country, we were doing the right thing and stuff,” Rodriguez explained.
Rodriguez said that he’d knocked on doors in support of the Trump campaign, attended numerous rallies, and even attempted to sign up for the Army after Trump became president, walking into a recruitment station while wearing a Trump shirt.
“Trump called us. Trump called us to D.C.,” Rodriguez told the FBI, explaining why he went to D.C. on Jan. 6. “If he’s the commander in chief and the leader of our country, and he’s calling for help — I thought he was calling for help, I thought he was I thought we were doing the right thing.”
The sizable trove of evidence released in connection with Jan. 6 criminal cases illustrates the motivations of Capitol riot defendants in other ways. Recently released police body camera footage, presented as evidence in connection with Jan. 6 case, shows members of the mob chanting “Fight for Trump” inside the Capitol as they try to fight past police officers attempting to remove them from the building after the mob broke through the door on the eastern side of the Capitol.
Additional footage filmed by Capitol rioter Nolan Cooke, recently released following a request from NBC News, shows the mob chanting “Stop the steal” and “We want Trump!” after breaking a police line and chasing overwhelmed cops up the stairs of the Capitol.
Donovan said she hopes her research can help show social media companies and authorities when they need to act before a similar flash point occurs in the future.
“What we’re trying to understand is really the new potent forms of political violence that can come from agitation online, that creates this kind of fervor. And then, once the match is lit by a politician, we have to have appropriate responses by other actors, including not just law enforcement, but journalists and technologists,” Donovan said.
“I do believe that the only way to come at this problem of networked incitement is with a whole of society solution.”