Saturday, July 30, 2022

No 'safe space' for 12 key ocean species on North American West Coast

Climate-induced changes endanger future of coastal ecosystems

Peer-Reviewed Publication

MCGILL UNIVERSITY

Sea star 

IMAGE: OCHRE STAR (PISASTER OCHRACEUS) CLUTCHES ONTO TO A ROCK FACE OVER A TIDE POOL. view more 

CREDIT: MIKE MCDERMID

For the generations who grew up watching Finding Nemo, it might not come as a surprise that the North American West Coast has its own version of the underwater ocean highway – the California Current marine ecosystem (CCME). The CCME extends from the southernmost tip of California up through Washington. Seasonal upward currents of cold, nutrient-rich water are the backbone to a larger food web of krill, squid, fish, seabirds and marine mammals. However, climate change and subsequent changes in ocean pH, temperature and oxygen levels are altering the CCME — and not in a good way. 

New research led by McGill University Biology professor  Jennifer Sunday  and Professor Terrie Klinger from the Washington Ocean Acidification Center within EarthLab at the University of Washington warns that climate impacts will significantly affect twelve economically and culturally important species that make their home in the CCME over the next 80 years. The northern part of this region and areas that are closer to shore will have strongest responses within this setting to changing ocean conditions. The region can expect to see substantial loss in canopy-forming kelp, declining survival rates of red urchins, Dungeness crab and razor clams, as well as a loss of aerobic habitat for anchovy and pink shrimp. 

Effects of changing climate are complex

Evaluating the biological effects of several environmental variables at once shows the complexities in climate sensitivity research. For example, while some anticipated environmental changes will boost metabolism and increase consumption and growth, accompanying changes in other variables, or even the same ones, could potentially decrease survival rates. Notably, physiological increases (such as in size, consumption or motility) are not always beneficial, especially when resources – such as food and oxygenated water – are limited.

Of all the climate effects modeled, ocean acidification was associated with the largest decreases in individual biological rates in some species, but the largest increases in others. This result emphasizes the need for continued research and monitoring to provide accurate, actionable information. 

Modelling critical to safeguarding coastal ecosystems and future of fisheries

Investing in predictive models and implementing adaptation strategies will be increasingly critical to safeguard our ecosystems, coastal cultures and livelihoods locally. Similar challenges will face species not addressed in this study, and responses will be complicated by the arrival of invasive species, disease outbreaks and future changes in nutrient supply. 

These species sensitivities will likely have socio-economic consequences felt up and down the West Coast, but they will likely not affect everyone and every place equally.  Since the area is highly productive, supporting fisheries and livelihoods for tens of millions of West Coast residents, being able to predict changes at the population level for a range of species that are likely to be affected should shed light on potential economic impacts and optimal adaptive measures for the future.

“The time to accelerate science-based actions is now,” says Jennifer Sunday, an Assistant Professor in McGill’s Biology Department and the first author on the paper. She echoes the messages from the recent 2022 UN Ocean Conference and the associated WOAC side event. “Integrating scientific information, predictive models and monitoring tools into local and regional decision-making can promote stewardship of marine resources and contribute to human wellbeing as we face inevitable changes in the marine life that sustains us.”

“Biological sensitivities to high-resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem” in Global Change Biology by Jennifer Sunday et al

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Giant sea kelp

CREDIT

Terrie Klinger


Survey finds 1 in 5 Americans fear getting monkeypox, but many know little about it

Most do not know there is a vaccine for monkeypox

Reports and Proceedings

ANNENBERG PUBLIC POLICY CENTER OF THE UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIAp

Worry about contracting monkeypox and Covid-19 

IMAGE: WORRY ABOUT CONTRACTING MONKEYPOX OR COVID-19 OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. ASKED OF 1,580 ADULTS ON THE ANNENBERG PUBLIC POLICY CENTER ASK SURVEY, JULY 12-18, 2022. view more 

CREDIT: ANNENBERG PUBLIC POLICY CENTER

PHILADELPHIA – As Covid-19 cases surge across the United States dominated by a highly transmissible subvariant and worry about Covid persists, some in the public have begun to voice concern about the new health threat of monkeypox, according to a new Annenberg Public Policy Center national survey.

While 1 in 3 Americans worry about getting Covid-19 in the next three months, according to the July survey, nearly 1 in 5 are concerned about contracting monkeypox, a disease endemic in parts of Africa whose spread to 75 countries across the globe led the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a global health emergency on July 23, days after the survey was completed.

The nationally representative panel of 1,580 U.S. adults surveyed by SSRS for the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania from July 12-18, 2022, was the seventh wave of an Annenberg Science Knowledge (ASK) survey whose respondents were first empaneled in April 2021. The margin of sampling error (MOE) is ± 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. See the appendix and methodology for additional information.

The survey answers such questions as: How worried is the public about becoming infected with Covid-19 or monkeypox? Does the public possess basic knowledge about monkeypox? How widespread is misinformation about monkeypox?

Highlights

Conducted amid escalating cases of the coronavirus BA.5 omicron subvariant and the spread of monkeypox cases, the survey found that many people (80%) had seen, read, or heard something about monkeypox in the past month, but many lacked knowledge about the disease:

  • 19% of Americans are worried about getting monkeypox in the next three months.
  • 30% of those surveyed are worried about getting Covid-19 over the next three months.
  • Nearly half (48%) are unsure whether monkeypox is less contagious than Covid.
  • Two-thirds (66%) either are not sure or do not believe there is a vaccine for monkeypox.

“It’s important that the public calibrate its concerns to the reality of the risk of Covid-19 and monkeypox and act appropriately,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center.

Monkeypox concerns

Monkeypox, a rare disease caused by an orthopoxvirus, is a less deadly member of the same family of viruses as smallpox, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The disease, discovered in 1958, is typically characterized by rashes, according to the CDC, and is transmitted person-to-person by direct contact with the infectious rash, scabs, or body fluids, respiratory secretions, touching items that touched the infectious body fluid, by a pregnant person to a fetus through the placenta, or to and from infected animals. (For more information see this Q&A on monkeypox by APPC’s FactCheck.org.)

In the current monkeypox outbreak about 2,900 cases were reported in the United States as of June 22, and more than 16,000 cases have been reported in 75 countries, according to the WHO.

Among the survey findings:

  • Worry about contracting monkeypox: About 1 in 5 of those surveyed (19%) are somewhat (14%) or very worried (5%) about getting monkeypox in the next three months, while 81% are not too (41%) or not at all worried (40%).
    • Women are more worried about contracting monkeypox than men: Though the vast majority of cases to date in the United States are among men who have sex with men, 23% of women worry about contracting monkeypox vs. 15% of men.
  • Covid-19: More Americans (30%) worry about getting Covid in the next three months, with 24% somewhat worried and 6% very worried.
    • Women are also more worried about Covid-19 than men: 33% of women are worried about contracting Covid vs. 27% of men.

Monkeypox knowledge

While many Americans are generally familiar with monkeypox, significant parts of the public lack important information about the disease – and how to protect themselves:

  • Knowing how monkeypox spreads: A large majority (69%) knows that monkeypox usually spreads by close contact with an infected person, though a quarter of those surveyed (26%) are not sure whether that is true or false.
  • Most do not know a monkeypox vaccine exists: In all, 2 in 3 Americans (66%) either are not sure (51%) whether a vaccine for monkeypox exists or do not think it exists at all (15%). One in 3 people (34%) correctly know that a vaccine for monkeypox exists. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has licensed a vaccine for preventing monkeypox infection and a vaccine licensed for smallpox is also available to prevent monkeypox infection, according to the CDC.
  • Which is more contagious: Monkeypox or Covid? More than a third of those surveyed (36%) know that monkeypox is less contagious than Covid-19. But 14% incorrectly say monkeypox is just about as contagious as Covid-19 and nearly half (48%) are unsure. The CDC says monkeypox “is not known to linger in the air and is not transmitted during short periods of shared airspace” but through direct contact with an infected individual or materials that have touched body fluids or sores or through respiratory secretions during “close, face-to-face contact.” An infectious disease expert, Anne Rimoin, told Vox monkeypox is “not as highly transmissible as something like smallpox, or measles, or certainly not Covid.”
  • Monkeypox and the Covid-19 vaccine: Most people (67%) say they think that getting a Covid-19 vaccine does not increase the likelihood of getting monkeypox, though over a quarter of respondents (28%) are not sure. There is no evidence to suggest this is true.
  • Are people who have had Covid-19 at higher risk? A third of people (33%) report that having had Covid-19 does not of itself put one at a higher risk of infection with monkeypox, though nearly two-thirds (63%) are not sure if this is true. There is no evidence to suggest that having had Covid increases the risk of contracting monkeypox.
  • Higher risk for people working with animals? Asked if the CDC advises that people who work with animals are at a higher risk of monkeypox, less than 1 in 10 respondents (9%) say yes. A third (34%) say no, while over half (57%) are not sure. Although the current outbreak involves human-to-human transmission, a 2003 outbreak in domesticated prairie dogs led to 47 U.S. human cases. Monkeypox can infect a range of mammals, including monkeys, anteaters, hedgehogs, prairie dogs, squirrels and shrews. Infected animals can spread the virus to people and it is possible that people who are infected can spread the virus to animals, says the CDC, which lists among higher-risk people who might consider vaccination “laboratory workers who handle culture or animals with orthopoxviruses.”
  • Higher risk for men who have sex with men? When asked whether the CDC advises that men who have sex with men are at a higher risk of infection with monkeypox, a third of those surveyed (33%) said yes. Two-thirds (66%) either said this is false or they did not know. The WHO says cases outside Africa in this outbreak have been mainly among men having sex with men, while cautioning that there is no evidence to suggest it will remain confined within those groups. In a Washington Post interview, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said men who have sex with men are “the community most at risk.”

“The time to reduce susceptibility to misinformation about monkeypox is now,” Jamieson said. “It is critically important that public health professionals offer anxious individuals accurate information about the ways in which this virus is transmitted and infection prevented. Vaccinating those who are at highest risk should be a national priority.”

Monkeypox misinformation and conspiracy theories

“As one would expect, conspiracy theorists have incorporated monkeypox into their pre-existing beliefs that, instead of emerging through natural processes, a spreading virus must have been bioengineered, intentionally released to accomplish a political objective, or is the byproduct of exposure to a pervasive new technology such as 5G,” said Jamieson.

Most Americans reject conspiracy theories alleging that monkeypox was bioengineered in a lab or was intentionally released. However, here, too, the Annenberg ASK survey found that worrisome numbers have either accepted one of four conspiracy theories or are unsure whether they are true or false.

  • Bioengineered in a lab: Over half of those surveyed (54%) reject as false the idea that monkeypox was bioengineered in a lab, though a third (34%) are not sure if that is true or false and 12% say this is probably or definitely true. There is no evidence of this.
    • Of the small minority who believe that monkeypox was bioengineered in a lab, 56% say the lab was in China; 16% say the United States; 15% Russia; 12% some other country.
  • Intentional release (asked of a half-sample, MOE = ± 4.7 percentage points): Over half (56%) said that it was definitely or probably false to state that monkeypox was intentionally released, though 30% were not sure and 14% thought that was probably or definitely true. There is no evidence of this.
  • Released to help Biden (asked of a half-sample, MOE = ± 4.7 percentage points): 71% reject as false the statement that monkeypox was intentionally released by scientists to deflect attention from the failures of the Biden administration. However, 19% said they were not sure whether this is true or false, and 10% said it was probably or definitely true. There is no evidence of this.
  • Caused by exposure to 5G: A large majority (78%) correctly said it is false to assert that monkeypox is caused by exposure to a 5G signal, though 21% were not sure.

See the appendix and methodology for additional information. Read about prior Annenberg Science Knowledge surveys.

The Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) was established in 1993 to educate the public and policy makers about communication’s role in advancing public understanding of political, science, and health issues at the local, state, and federal levels. APPC is the home of FactCheck.org and its SciCheck program, whose Covid-19/Vaccination Project seeks to debunk misinformation about Covid-19 and vaccines, and increase exposure to accurate information.

 Risk of contracting monkeypox 

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From the Annenberg Public Policy Center ASK survey of 1,580 U.S. adults, July 12-18, 2022.

CREDIT

Annenberg Public Policy Center


CAPTION

From the Annenberg Public Policy Center ASK survey of 1,580 US. adults, July 12-18, 2022.

CREDIT

Annenberg Public Policy Center


Study finds important differences in monkeypox symptoms between current and previous outbreaks


Findings should help clinicians spot infections earlier


Peer-Reviewed Publication

BMJ

A study published by The BMJ today identifies important differences in monkeypox symptoms between the current outbreak and previous outbreaks in endemic regions.

The findings are based on 197 confirmed monkeypox cases at an infectious disease centre in London between May and July 2022.

Some of the common symptoms they describe, including rectal pain and penile swelling (oedema), differ from those described in previous outbreaks.

As such, the researchers recommend that clinicians consider monkeypox infection in patients presenting with these symptoms. And they say those with confirmed monkeypox infection with extensive penile lesions or severe rectal pain “should be considered for ongoing review or inpatient management.”

According to government data, as of 18 July 2022, there were 2,137 confirmed cases of monkeypox in the UK. Of these, 2,050 were in England and almost three quarters (73%) were in London.

All 197 participants in this study were men (average age 38 years), of whom 196 identified as gay, bisexual, or other men who have sex with men. 

All patients presented with lesions on their skin or mucosal membranes, most commonly on the genitals or in the perianal area. 

Most (86%) of patients reported systemic illness (affecting the entire body). The most common systemic symptoms were fever (62%), swollen lymph nodes (58%), and muscle aches and pain (32%). 

And in contrast with existing case reports suggesting that systemic symptoms precede skin lesions, 38% of patients developed systemic symptoms after the onset of mucocutaneous lesions, while 14% presented with lesions without systemic features.

A total of 71 patients reported rectal pain, 33 sore throat, and 31 penile oedema, while 27 had oral lesions, 22 had a solitary lesion, and 9 had swollen tonsils.

The authors note that solitary lesions and swollen tonsils were not previously known to be typical features of monkeypox infection, and could be mistaken for other conditions. 

Just over a third (36%) of participants also had HIV infection and 32% of those screened for sexually transmitted infections had a sexually transmitted infection. 

Overall, 20 (10%) of participants were admitted to hospital for the management of symptoms, most commonly rectal pain and penile swelling. However, no deaths were reported and no patients required intensive hospital care.

Only one participant had recently travelled to an endemic region, confirming ongoing transmission within the UK, and only a quarter of patients had known contact with someone with confirmed monkeypox infection, raising the possibility of transmission by people with no or very few symptoms.

The authors acknowledge some limitations, such as the observational nature of the findings, the potential variability of clinical record keeping, and the fact that the data are limited to a single centre.

However, they say these findings confirm the ongoing unprecedented community transmission of monkeypox virus among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men seen in the UK and many other non-endemic countries.

They write: “Understanding these findings will have major implications for contact tracing, public health advice, and ongoing infection control and isolation measures.” 

And they call for continued research to inform infection control and isolation policies and guide the development of new diagnostics, treatments, and preventive measures.

[Ends]

Texas A&M AgriLife develops new bioremediation material to clean up ‘forever chemicals’

Sustainable, cheaper method has potential for commercial applications

Peer-Reviewed Publication

TEXAS A&M AGRILIFE COMMUNICATIONS

 

Written by Helen White, helen.white@ag.tamu.edu

A novel bioremediation technology for cleaning up per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, chemical pollutants that threaten human health and ecosystem sustainability, has been developed by Texas A&M AgriLife researchers. The material has potential for commercial application for disposing of PFAS, also known as “forever chemicals.”

Published July 28 in Nature Communications, the research was a collaboration of Susie Dai, Ph.D., associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Plant Pathology and Microbiology, and Joshua Yuan, Ph.D., chair and professor in Washington University in St. Louis Department of Energy, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, formerly with the Texas A&M Department of Plant Pathology and Microbiology.

grant from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and support from Texas A&M AgriLife funded the work.

Removing PFAS contamination is a challenge

PFAS are used in many applications such as food wrappers and packaging, dental floss, fire-fighting foam, nonstick cookware, textiles and electronics. These days, PFAS are widely distributed in the environment from manufacturing or from products containing the chemicals, said Dai.

But, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, scientific studies show that, at certain levels, some of these chemicals can be harmful to humans and wildlife. Health effects might include:

  • Reproductive effects such as decreased fertility or increased high blood pressure in pregnant women.
  • Developmental effects or delays in children, including low birth weight, accelerated puberty, bone variations or behavioral changes.
  • Increased risk of some cancers, including prostate, kidney and testicular cancers.
  • Reduced ability of the body’s immune system to fight infections, including reduced vaccine response.
  • Interference with the body’s natural hormones.
  • Increased cholesterol levels and/or risk of obesity.

“PFAS do not degrade easily in the environment and are toxic even at trace level concentrations,” said Dai. “They must be removed and destroyed to prevent human exposure and negative impacts on the ecosystem.

“PFAS are so stable because they are composed of a chain of carbon and fluorine atoms linked together, and the carbon-fluorine bond is one of the strongest chemical bonds. They can occur in water at a very low concentration and you have to concentrate them and then destroy them.”

The current way to destroy them is to burn them, an expensive multistep process. Commercial products such as active carbon are used as a clean-up material to adsorb the PFAS compounds. The material is then sent to be incinerated.

Sustainable and low-cost alternative

Dai and Yuan developed a technique of using a plant-derived material to adsorb the PFAS and dispose of them with microbial fungi that literally eat the “forever chemicals.”

“We produced a sustainable plant material that could be used to concentrate the PFAS chemicals,” said Dai.

“The plant’s cell wall material serves as a framework to adsorb the PFAS,” she said. “Then this material and the adsorbed chemical serve as food for a microbial fungus. The fungus eats it, it’s gone, and you don’t have the disposal problem. Basically, the fungus is doing the detoxification process.”

This is a sustainable treatment system with a powerful potential to remove harmful chemicals to protect human health and the ecosystem in a non-toxic, more cost-effective way, said Dai.

Potential commercial applications

The EPA has established a nationwide program to monitor the frequency and levels of PFAS in public water systems and is considering adding PFAS threshold levels to drinking water standards.

“If threshold levels become part of the drinking water standards, municipal water treatment plants must comply with EPA regulations. Manufacturers will need to monitor these chemicals and remove them when required,” said Dai.

The innovative biomass remediation Dai and Yuan have developed could help implement these changes more cost-effectively. The interest in this technology goes beyond drinking water standards.

“We live on a planet where every component interacts,” said Dai. “People are concerned not only about the water but also about local crops produced by using that water to feed the animals that are part of the food supply.”

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An increase in oil prices may lead to a decrease in the development of green energy

The reason is that oil is needed to create clean facilities and infrastructure

Peer-Reviewed Publication

URAL FEDERAL UNIVERSITY

Kazi Sohag 

IMAGE: AS KAZI SOHAG NOTES, THE TRANSITION TO CLEAN ENERGY REQUIRES A LARGE AMOUNT OF MINERALS. view more 

CREDIT: PRESS OFFICE URFU

An increase in oil prices may lead to a reduction in the development of green energy as it is also required in the transition to a carbon-free electricity supply. Precisely, oil is needed for deploying clean energy capacity or infrastructure. This relationship was revealed by an international team of scientists from Russia, Bangladesh and Malaysia using a сross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) method. The scientists obtained the data by analyzing the experience of nine leading mineral-importing countries. These included Russia, Australia, USA, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine. The results of the study are published in the international reputed journal Resources Policy.

"On the one hand, oil can be considered the substitute for mineral driven clean energy. For example, in the form of cheaper fuel for cars than the creation of electric lithium batteries for electric cars. and on the other hand, oil is used for transportation, maintenance of energy-intensive technologies for building equipment necessary for green energy. Making solar panels, for example, requires oil, battery production requires transportation of materials and equipment for extraction of minerals. Therefore, in the process of providing renewable electricity, non-renewable resources also incur serious financial costs," explains Kazi Sohag, Head of the Laboratory for International and Regional Economics, Senior Researcher and Associate Professor at the School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University.

In addition, the magnitude of demand for minerals depends on the countries' installed solar and wind capacity. For example, in producing solar energy the main tool is photovoltaic panels, films created from various fossil metals - copper, tellurium, cadmium, etc. Researchers predict that after 2022 the capacity of solar energy in electricity production will increase by 45% annually. Consequently, the demand for these and other minerals will increase because of the massive use of solar technology in the production process.

" It should be noted that this fact can be useful for Russia as a country - the main exporter of oil and at the same time a major importer of minerals. The Russian Federation imports copper needed for solar energy as well as lithium, chromium, cobalt, and nickel used for electric vehicle batteries. Given the potential growth in demand and rising prices for minerals, now the reallocation of oil revenues could increase the amount of imported metals and accelerate the transition to clean electricity," says Dr. Kazi Sohag.

Economists have calculated that the demand for imports of minerals used in different technologies and sectors of green energy depends on a few variable factors. The price of oil is one of the key. In addition, the demand for minerals depends on the average prices for metals, primarily copper and nickel, as well as on the exchange rate. Thus, fluctuations in prices for mineral resources and an unstable exchange rate limit the volume of imports of minerals.

"At the moment, the volume of consumption and production of renewable energy in Russia is very small, despite the large volume of imports of minerals. To increase the share of green energy in the country, more attention should be paid to the development of intra-regional cohesion to use renewable energy sources, creating solar and wind farms using imported minerals. This strategy will enable Russia to meet its 2030 Sustainable Development Goals," adds Dr. Kazi Sohag.

Reference

Renewable energy sources require more raw materials than traditional ones. For example, a photovoltaic solar power plant contains approximately 5.5 tons of copper per megawatt of electricity generation, while a conventional power plant needs only one ton. In addition to copper, solar panels require other minerals such as indium or tellurium, cadmium, and silver. Lithium is also used in electric vehicles, while cobalt or nickel is used to store energy in car batteries. Thus, the import of minerals has become a priority for those economies that intend to achieve their goal of producing renewable energy in line with the global clean energy agenda. 

Listening to the people results in a more sustainable future energy system

Energy plan for 2050 based on consumer preferences and future demographics of the US population includes 50% more electricity derived from renewable sources than current projections

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KYUSHU UNIVERSITY

Preference-based energy mix 

IMAGE: THIS GRAPHIC SHOWS THE FRACTION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF ELECTRICITY SOURCES IN THE US IN 2050 BASED ON AN ENERGY MIX PLAN THAT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE PREFERENCES AND DEMOGRAPHICS OF VARIOUS RACIAL GROUPS, WITH PROJECTIONS BY THE US ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION BASED ON CURRENT PLANS AND POLICIES FOR COMPARISON (VALUES IN GRAY). DEVELOPED BY A RESEARCH TEAM LED BY KYUSHU UNIVERSITY BASED ON A 2020 SURVEY OF 3,000 PEOPLE IN THE US, THE PREFERENCE-BASED PLAN INCLUDES 50% MORE ENERGY FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES THAN CURRENT PROJECTIONS. ALLOWING SUCH BOTTOM-UP APPROACHES THAT CONSIDER THE PREFERENCES OF THE POPULATION TO INFLUENCE POLICYMAKING COULD HELP TO REALIZE EMISSION AND CLIMATE GOALS IN THE FUTURE. view more 

CREDIT: KYUSHU UNIVERSITY

As policymakers around the world aim to cut carbon emissions and meet climate goals, new research points to a critical group whose opinions could help to shape energy planning for the better: the consumers.

By taking into account the demographics and preferences of US racial groups, clarified through a nationally representative survey of 3,000 US residents, researchers led by Kyushu University created a ‘desirable’ electricity generation mix for 2050 that includes 50% more energy from renewable sources than projections based on current plans and policies.

“In the US, consumers are being given more and more ways to choose their energy provider, so listening to and understanding these voices is crucial,” says Andrew Chapman, associate professor at Kyushu University’s International Institute for Carbon-Neutral Research (I2CNER) and leader of the study.

“In light of this, we set out to develop an energy plan that incorporates the broad range of voices and the rapidly shifting demographics of the US and then compared it with the current top-down plan in which energy goals are set by policymakers.”

To develop their energy plan, the international team of researchers from Kyushu University, Nagasaki University, and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign surveyed 3,000 people in the US in 2020 on their preferences, awareness, priorities, and other opinions regarding energy technologies, policies, and issues.

Considering only future construction projects needed to replace power plants at the end of their life and to meet predicted growth in energy consumption, they allocated roughly 2.4 billion kWh of electricity generating capacity out to the year 2050 based on the preferences of each racial group and the predicted future racial demographics of the country.

The resultant energy mix includes nearly 61% renewable-based electricity compared to 42% envisaged under the projected 2050 energy mix according to the US Energy Information Administration based on current plans and policies.

On the other hand, nuclear power is reduced by over half and coal-based generation by over three quarters in the researchers’ plan compared to the projections. Natural gas is similar in both cases, indicating that consumers are aware of the practical need for a stable energy supply.

“There appears to be strong support for a further emphasis on technologies that will help to achieve emission and climate goals when planning the future energy system, as indicated by a strong desire to move away from fossil and nuclear toward renewables,” notes Chapman.

“Though each racial group prefers different sources in the future energy mix, all groups recognize the need for a stable energy supply, combining natural gas with their preference for renewables, led by solar and wind.”

Differences in regional preferences also emerged. For example, along the west coast, there was significantly higher importance placed on dealing with climate change and realizing an equitable energy system. In the future, such input could be used to shape energy plans that leverage divisions among power grids across the US.

The researchers note that their plan’s allotment of hydroelectric and geothermal generation could be unrealistic because of how long such projects take to plan and implement. Furthermore, respondents consistently indicated a healthy economy as one of their priorities, so balancing costs and employment opportunities must also be considered in energy system design.

“In addition to consumer preferences seeming to support more renewables than current plans, we also found that preferences were linked to awareness, which is likewise strongly linked to education,” comments Chapman. “Thus, energy education is likely to be another important aspect for achieving carbon reduction goals and encouraging participatory energy system design.”

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For more information about this research, see “Cultural and demographic energy system awareness and preference: Implications for future energy system design in the United States,” Andrew Chapman, Yosuke Shigetomi, Shamal Chandra Karmaker, Bidyut Saha, and Caleb Brooks, Energy Economics (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106141

About Kyushu University

Kyushu University is one of Japan’s leading research-oriented institutes of higher education since its founding in 1911. Home to around 19,000 students and 8,000 faculty and staff, Kyushu U's world-class research centers cover a wide range of study areas and research fields, from the humanities and arts to engineering and medical sciences. Its multiple campuses—including the largest in Japan—are located around Fukuoka City, a coastal metropolis on the southwestern Japanese island of Kyushu that is frequently ranked among the world’s most livable cities and historically known as a gateway to Asia. The International Institute for Carbon-Neutral Energy Research (I2CNER) within Kyushu University is focused on developing carbon-reducing energy technologies and energy analysis of the future ‘carbon neutral’ energy system.