Monday, August 01, 2022

UK
‘Reactionary and regressive’: Tory leadership candidates slammed for promising the return of grammar schools
Yesterday


"How anyone can still argue that grammar schools are the magic wand to improve our broken education system beggars belief."



Both candidates in the race to No 10 have pledged their support for the expansion of selective education.

Rishi Sunak’s pledge was made during the Tory leadership hustings in Leeds this week. During the debate the former chancellor was asked if he would support the move to bring back grammar schools and he said “yes.”

“I believe in educational excellence, I believe education is the most powerful way we can transform people’s lives. But I also think there’s lots we can do with the school system as we have it.

“Now what Michael Gove did several years ago was transformative. And Michael took on some vested interests, challenged consensus, brought in some reforms that mean that millions of our children now are better off.

“But that’s a Conservative way to do it. It’s not about throwing more money at the problem, it’s about reforming the system to get better outcomes. And that’s what I would do with education as well,” Sunak added.

Following the debate, Rishi Sunak’s team clarified that he supported opening satellites to existing grammar schools.

Sunak’s rival Liz Truss was not asked the same question in the debate, but she reportedly told the right-wing 1922 committee of Conservative MPs at a husting that she would end the ban on new grammar schools.

The foreign secretary told Conservative Home website that she is a “huge supporter of grammar schools”.

“My two daughters now attend a grammar school, and I want people around the country to have the choice that we have to be able to send our daughters to a grammar school.”

Middle-class privilege


In 1965, amid concerns that the selective school system created middle-class privilege and heightened class division, a Labour government started to phase out grammar schools. In 1998, Tony Blair’s government put an outright ban on new grammar schools being opened in the UK and banned new schools from selecting pupils by their grades under the School Standards and Framework Act.

However, existing grammar schools are still allowed to expand and accommodate more students. There are currently 164 grammar schools in the UK.

In 2016, the then prime minister Theresa May revealed plans to scrap the ban and create a new generation of grammar schools, as well as expanding on existing ones. May argued that grammar schools improve social mobility and, in reintroducing them to Britain, would make the country a “true meritocracy.”

May’s plans met opposition, with Labour saying bringing new grammar schools back to the education system would “entrench inequality.” The then shadow education secretary Angela Rayner labelled the policy “divisive” and that it would “segregate” children.

Like when May announced her intention to bring back grammar schools, the Tory leadership hopefuls’ promises to see their return has been met with opposition.

In response to Sunak’s comments at the Leeds’ hustings, political commentator Patrick O’Flynn tweeted: “Not saying Rishi is in a blind panic as his campaign completely disintegrates, but don’t be surprised if he is offering everyone a free owl by the weekend.”

Another critic of Sunak’s pledge labelled it “reactionary and regressive.”

Reacting to the candidates’ support of an expansion of selective education, Dr Nuala Burgess, chair of Comprehensive Future, which campaigns for a secondary school system with fair admission and to put an end to 11-plus exams, said:

“It seems extraordinary that with a teacher retention crisis and schools desperate for funds, that the only education policy that the Tory leadership candidates can come up with is a push for more grammar schools.

“We firmly believe that outside a tiny minority of mainly elderly, comfortably-off Conservative members who will vote for our next PM, there is no appetite for the increased stress, bitter competition for school places and hot-housing of little children that more 11-plus testing and more grammar schools will inevitably generate.

“Every single piece of available evidence demonstrates conclusively that working class children do worse in areas of the country that have retained grammar schools. How anyone can still argue that grammar schools are the magic wand to improve our broken education system beggars belief. More grammar schools means more secondary moderns – you cannot have one without the other, but this is a point avoided by those who insist on the benefits of a selective education system. They also avoid mentioning that it permits schools to reject 80% of the pupils who apply for a place.”

Comprehensive Future also noted how Sunak would expand grammar schools by using the Selective School Expansion Fund (SSEF). The SSEF funds academy schools and local authority-maintained schools which select by ability to expand, subject to conditions.

“Sunak’s bid to make the expansion of grammar schools more palatable by re-introducing Theresa May’s flawed Selective School Expansion fund suggests he has not done his homework. He and his party should be ashamed of the fund’s failure to meet promises that it would bring many more disadvantaged pupils into grammar schools. The fact is that the £50 million spent in the Fund’s first year led to just 77 additional pupil premium places.

“If our former chancellor really cared about education, he would use his education budget more wisely. He might start by applying his financial acumen to finding ways of restoring teachers’ salaries to 2010 levels and increasing per pupil spending. In this way, every child and young person would benefit, irrespective of the school they attended,” Dr Nuala Burgess continued.

Celia Birchby, former headteacher of a primary school in Macclesfield, told LFF her thoughts on the reintroduction of grammar schools in the UK.

“As a child attending a grammar school in the 1960s, I remember how horrendous the system was, splitting up friends from primary school and stoking division. It’s all about the same-old Tory elitism. But what they don’t understand is that most of us don’t want elitism, we want everyone to be equal.”

Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward

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Hawaii couple alleged to be Russian spies using fake names held without bail

According to the reports, the real names of the couple are Walter Glenn Primose, 66, and Gwynn Darle Morrison, 54. Government prosecutors allege that, in the late 1980s, the couple hurriedly left their home in the state of Texas, telling family members that they were entering the US Federal Witness Protection Program. They are also said to have given some family members permission to take whatever they wanted from their home, before it was foreclosed.

The government claims that the couple then assumed the identities of two infants, Bobby Edward Fort and Julie Lyn Montague, who had died in Texas in 1967 and 1968 respectively. They then used these infants’ birth certificates to obtain social security cards, drivers’ licenses, and even US passports. In 1994, while living in Hawaii under his assumed name, Primrose enlisted in the US Coast Guard, which is the maritime security and law enforcement service branch of the US military. He served there for over 20 years as an avionic electrical technician with a secret level clearance. Following his retirement in 2016, Primrose is said to have worked as a private contractor for the US Department of Defense until his arrest on July 22 of this year.

Now US government prosecutors claim that federal agents found 30-year-old photographs of Primrose and Morrison dressed in uniforms of the KGB, the Soviet Union’s intelligence agency. There are also unconfirmed reports that Primrose lived in Romania during the Cold War. He maintained passports under both of his names, and used them to travel abroad. He reported some of his foreign trips to his employer, but not all, such as for example several trips to Canada, according to court documents. Government prosecutors further claim that invisible ink instruments, coded documents and maps of US military facilities were found in the couple’s home in the town of Kapolei.

Both Primrose and Morrison have denied they are foreign spies, saying they are American-born. They also claim that the photos of them in KGB uniform were part of a prank they played with the help of a friend. But the court denied them bail, despite the fact that neither of them has a criminal record. They have been charged with identity theft, lying on their passport applications and conspiring to commit crimes against the US. It is likely that espionage charges will follow in the coming weeks.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 01 August 2022 | Permalink

War, Climate Change, Energy Costs: How the Wheat Market Has Been Upended

The price has fallen sharply from its peak after one major producer, Russia, invaded another, Ukraine. But that hasn’t ended fears of a global hunger crisis.


A Ukrainian wheat farm. Ukraine and Russia account for roughly a quarter of global wheat exports, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Credit...Diego Ibarra Sanchez for The New York Times

By Joe Rennison
Aug. 1, 2022

The price of wheat has tumbled from its peak after Russia invaded Ukraine, but experts say one of the world’s most widely consumed foods remains in short supply and warn that a global hunger crisis still looms.

Like oil, steel, beef and other commodities integral to the economy, wheat shifts in price and availability in response to a complex set of overlapping factors, such as geopolitics and the weather. While the falling price of wheat offers some respite for countries dependent on importing the crop, it may dissuade farmers from planting more. Nor does the drop in price address pre-existing problems worsened by a war between two of the world’s biggest producers. Energy prices remain high, affecting the cost of running farm equipment and transporting the wheat to market as well as the cost of fertilizer. And hot, dry weather that crimps crop yields is becoming more common.

“The fundamental picture hasn’t really changed,” said Ehsan Khoman, who manages emerging-market and commodities research for Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, a Japanese bank. “There is a potential where food prices could spiral out of control.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused food and fuel prices to soar, as war and sanctions disrupted supplies from two of the world’s major agriculture and energy exporters. The two countries together account for roughly a quarter of global wheat exports, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Oil prices have eased a bit since the start of the war, though it still costs a lot more than it did at the start of the year for Americans to fill their cars with gasoline, for Europeans to heat their homes with natural gas and for just about anyone anywhere to do anything linked to the cost of oil. Wheat prices, though, have fallen to roughly where they began the year.

The price of a widely traded type of wheat that started the year about $7.70 per bushel jumped to $13 in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, according to futures contracts traded in Chicago, a global hub for the commodity. The price mostly stayed in double digits until mid-June, when it began to fall. On Friday, wheat traded at a little more than $8 a bushel.

After the initial shock of the invasion, higher prices dissuaded some countries from buying wheat, lowering demand and weighing on prices. An uptick in supply from winter wheat harvests has also lowered prices in recent weeks.

A deal to free trapped grain provides only partial relief.

A major factor pushing wheat prices down has been the progress of negotiations over the fate of more than 20 million metric tons of grain stuck in Black Sea ports in Ukraine. A little over a week ago, an agreement was reached to open an export corridor to allow some of the grain trapped by the war to move out across the world.

The deal may not hold amid the fighting, and even if it does, experts say it probably won’t be enough to address other issues hanging over the global wheat market.

“This agreement has been bigged up as something that will be a solution to the world’s food shortage, and it is just not,” said Tracey Allen, an agricultural commodities strategist at JPMorgan Chase.

Other, more entrenched factors in the wheat market, from the prices of energy and fertilizer to climate change, could play a bigger role in determining the cost — and availability — of a loaf of bread around the world.

Experts think wheat prices are likely to rise again. Adding further uncertainty is that futures contracts work by allowing buyers and sellers to agree on a price for wheat that will be delivered in the future, typically three months’ time. And a lot can change in three months.

“Prices are going to remain higher, and consumers are going to feel that in the price of products they purchase on supermarket shelves,” Ms. Allen said.

A major factor pushing down wheat prices recently has been negotiations over grain stuck in Ukraine’s ports.
Credit...Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times


Climate change is making wheat harvests less predictable.

Droughts last year meant that even before Russia invaded Ukraine, global food markets were under pressure.

While some regions like Argentina saw bumper crops, and Russia is expected to have a hefty harvest this summer, severe heat and low rainfall affected the amount of wheat that others could grow.

In Canada, temperatures soared to new records. At the end of July 2021, about three-quarters of the country’s agricultural land was classified as abnormally dry. Canada’s wheat production dropped nearly 40 percent from 2020 to 2021, causing its exports to Latin America and the Caribbean to decline by over 3 million tons, according to the U.S.D.A.

The decline in global supply resulting from bad weather had already helped push up prices coming into this year. In January 2020, wheat was about 30 percent cheaper than it is now.

Canadian wheat production is expected to pick up over the next year. The spring crop in the United States, led by North Dakota, is also expected to be robust. But Europe has been suffering from a heat wave, raising concern about a weak yield, while India banned exports of wheat in May because of drought.

Experts warn that fluctuations in the weather are likely to become more pronounced, adding to the uncertainty over global production and the direction of prices in the future.

Energy prices are important to wheat farmers.

Oil prices largely determine the cost of running farm equipment and transporting harvested grain. Natural gas prices are even more important to farmers because nitrogen, used to produce fertilizers like ammonia and urea, is produced from natural gas.

“It’s not just about grain prices — it’s shipping costs and fuel prices and fertilizer prices and so on,” said Luiz Eduardo Peixoto, an economist specializing in emerging markets at BNP Paribas.

Russia, the largest producer of fertilizer in the world, has steadily restricted the flow of natural gas to Europe, not only driving fuel prices higher but also nudging up the cost of nitrogen-based fertilizers. As fertilizer prices have risen, so have wheat prices, ticking up in the past week.

Because Russian fertilizer is so important to the global farm trade, it has avoided international sanctions that have restricted other Russian exports, giving Moscow political leverage over another crucial commodity that the world needs.
Lower prices aren’t necessarily a good thing for wheat producers.

Higher costs for fuel and fertilizer eat into the profit that farmers can make and create a quandary for wheat-producing nations. That is particularly true for Ukraine, where transporting wheat to buyers abroad has become costly because of the war, said Dan Basse, an agricultural economist and president of AgResource, an analytics company.

While high prices hurt countries that import wheat, low prices might dissuade farmers from planting extra this year, especially in Ukraine as they contend with challenges selling their current crop, which could make them unable to afford to grow more.

Egypt and Indonesia depend heavily on Ukrainian wheat, and famine-struck Somalia imports wheat primarily from Ukraine and Russia.

The U.S.D.A. forecasts that the 18.8 million metric tons of wheat that Ukraine exported over the past 12 months will fall to around 10 million in the coming 12 months.

“Farmers can’t afford to plant that next crop,” Mr. Basse said. “We need world wheat prices to rise for farmers to expand planting in the upcoming growing season.”

Yet even if prices rise enough to encourage more planting, that may prove irrelevant when grain storage is overflowing as farmers struggle to move crops around conflict areas.

“It almost doesn’t matter how high prices are,” Ms. Allen of JPMorgan said. “It does not solve the problem of getting wheat off the farms.”

International agencies have issued repeated warnings about how altered trade patterns after the war in Ukraine could keep prices for commodities like wheat higher than usual. But some experts say the warnings are not being heeded.

“The issues affecting food markets have not been solved,” said Mr. Khoman of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. “There is still a shortage.”


Joe Rennison covers financial markets and trading, a beat that ranges from chronicling the vagaries of the stock market to explaining the often-inscrutable trading decisions of Wall Street insiders. @JARennison

A version of this article appears in print on Aug. 1, 2022, Section B, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: What Drives The Price Of Wheat. 
First ship carrying Ukrainian grain since Russia invaded leaves Odesa


 AUGUST 1, 2022 / / CBS/AP

Ankara, Turkey — The first ship carrying Ukrainian grain set off from the port of Odesa on Monday under an internationally brokered deal that's expected to release large stores of Ukrainian crops to foreign markets and ease a growing global hunger crisis.

The Sierra Leone-flagged cargo ship Razoni left Odesa for Lebanon, Turkey's defense ministry said. A statement from the United Nations said the Razoni was carrying over 26,000 tons of corn.

The Sierra Leone-flagged ship Razoni leaves Odesa on August 1, 2022. 
UKRAINIAN NAVAL FORCES VIA REUTERS

The ship is expected to reach Istanbul on Tuesday, where it will be inspected, before being allowed to proceed, the Turkish ministry said.

The corn will head to Lebanon, a tiny Mideast nation in the grips of what the World Bank has described as one of the world's worst financial crises in more than 150 years. A 2020 explosion at its main port in Beirut shattered its capital city and destroyed grain silos there.

"The first grain ship since #RussianAggression has left port. Thanks to the support of all our partner countries & @UN we were able to full implement the Agreement signed in Istanbul," the Reuters news agency quoted Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Alexander Kubrakov as tweeting.

"Today Ukraine, together with partners, is taking another step towards preventing world hunger," Kubrakov said adding it would also help Ukraine.

"Unlocking ports will provide at least $1 billion in foreign exchange revenue to the economy and an opportunity for the agricultural sector to plan for next year," he said.

Agence France-Presse quotes Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba as calling the development a "relief for the world."

"The day of relief for the world, especially for our friends in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa, as the first Ukrainian grain leaves Odesa after months of Russian blockade. Ukraine has always been a reliable partner and will remain one should Russia respect its part of the deal," Kuleba tweeted.

The Kremlin called the departure "very positive."

The Turkish ministry statement said other ships would also depart Ukraine's ports through the safe corridors in line with deals signed in Istanbul on July 22, but didn't provide further details.

Russia and Ukraine signed separate agreements with Turkey and the U.N. clearing the way for Ukraine - one of the world's key breadbaskets - to export 22 million tons of grain and other agricultural goods that have been stuck in Black Sea ports because of Russia's invasion.

The deals also allow Russia to exports grain and fertilizers.

United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said in a statement he "warmly welcomes" the ship's departure.

Founder of Ukraine grain firm killed by Russian shelling as shipments set to resume

Oleksiy Vadaturskyi was the multi-millionaire owner of Nibulon, one of Ukraine's largest agricultural companies

The first ship to export Ukrainian grain under a safe transit deal may depart Monday, Turkish TV reports

Lebanon has seized a ship loaded with barley and wheat flour while it determines whether the cargo may have been stolen from Ukraine


The ship Navi-Star sits full of grain since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began five months ago as it waits to sail from the Odesa Sea Port, in Odesa, Ukraine, Friday, July 29, 2022. (AP Photo/David Goldman)


Bloomberg News reporters
July 31 2022

The multi-millionaire owner of Nibulon, one of Ukraine's largest agricultural companies, died during a Russian attack on the southern city of Mykolaiv on Sunday, according to the region's governor.

Oleksiy Vadaturskyi and his wife Raisa Vadaturska were killed in their home during shelling that hit several targets, including schools, a sports complex and private residences, governor Vitaliy Kim said in a post on Telegram.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed his condolences, calling the deaths "a great loss for Mykolaiv and the whole Ukraine".

Vadaturskyi, 74, founded Nibulon in 1991 with partners from the UK and Hungary, according to the company's website.

Over the decades it expanded into one of the country's largest grain storage and logistics companies, operating in at least eight of Ukraine's 27 regions and employing some 7,000 people. Nibulon developed its own river fleet to transport grain to export terminals.

Named a "Hero of Ukraine", the nation's top civilian honour, in 2007, Vadaturskyi was also awarded the title "Man of the Year" in Mykolaiv for his contributions to Ukraine's agricultural sector.

"His contribution to the development of the agricultural and shipbuilding industry, the development of the region, is invaluable," Kim wrote. Forbes in 2021 ranked Vadaturskyi the 24th wealthiest Ukrainian, with a net worth of $430m.

Born into a farming family in Ukraine's Odesa region, Vadaturskyi started his career as an chemical engineer after graduating from the Odesa Technological Institute. He specialised in bread production and distribution in Mykolaiv before starting Nibulon.

"Oleksiy Vadaturskiy and his company were never afraid of challenges and were guided by love to their neighbourhood," Zelenskiy said in a statement. "They were inspired themselves and inspired the others. They were an example to follow."

Grain shipments to resume


Meanwhile, the first ship to export Ukrainian grain since an agreement was reached for the safe transit of vessels may depart as soon as Monday, Turkey’s Haberturk TV reported, citing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's spokesman Ibrahim Kalin.

More than a week after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal aimed at releasing millions of tonnes of grain through three Black Sea ports, no ships have sailed.

Ukraine said on Friday that it's close to restarting shipments, although the timing was linked to receiving go-ahead from the United Nations, which, along with Turkey, was a signatory to the July 22 agreement. The UN has declined to name a day.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk on Friday, where he watched grain being loaded onto a Turkish vessel.

Ukraine is one of the world's biggest wheat, corn and vegetable-oil suppliers, and crop markets are watching closely for concrete moves toward unlocking Ukraine's ports.

While there's has been incremental progress -- Ukraine's Sea Ports Authority earlier told companies a test boat would sail soon, and a group of insurers set up a programme to cover cargoes of food from Ukraine -- traders and exporters are still waiting for information about how and when vessels will depart, and to where.

Ship owners face a myriad of challenges, including recruiting crews to operate the ships as safety concerns remain. A Russian attack on Odesa's sea port with cruise missiles hours after signing the deal also raised questions about its commitment.

Lebanon seizes grain shipment


Lebanon has seized a ship loaded with barley and wheat flour while it determines whether the cargo may have been stolen from Ukraine, said Public Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat.

The Ukrainian embassy in Beirut said the vessel was loaded at Feodosia in the Russian-occupied peninsula of Crimea, and that the commodities originated from Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Kherson in south-eastern Ukraine.

The embassy accused Russia of stealing more than 500,000 tonnes during its occupation of the three regions. While Russia denies stealing grain, it has publicly touted the resumption of grain shipments from occupied ports.

Grain shipments from Crimea have surged since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, which analysts say indicates Ukrainian grain is being exported. Exports from Crimea are sanctioned by the European Union and the US.

The cargo ship Laodicea arrived at Tripoli in northern Lebanon on July 27, according to ship-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg. It will be held while Lebanon carries out an investigation into the cargo's origin, Oueidat told Bloomberg.

Russia’s war in Ukraine finds echoes in the Balkans














A person walks past a partly vandalized mural depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Belgrade, Serbia, on June 2. (Andrej Isakovic/AFP/Getty Images)

A couple months after launching Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin tried to justify his war by pointing to the Western Balkans. In a meeting with United Nations Secretary General António Guterres, Putin pointed to the legacy of the NATO intervention in the former Yugoslavia in 1999, a bombing campaign that hit targets across what was then combined Serbia and Montenegro in a bid to halt Serbia’s onslaught against ethnic Kosovar Albanians fighting for autonomy. The brief war and subsequent peacekeeping operation led to the emergence of the independent nation of Kosovo.

The Western alliance’s actions then, Putin suggested, were no different than what his forces sought to do now in attempting to guarantee the independence of two pro-Kremlin separatist entities in the eastern Ukrainian region known as Donbas. “Very many states of the West recognized [Kosovo] as an independent state,” Putin told Guterres. “We did the same in respect of the republics of Donbas.”

There are plenty of reasons to scoff at this analogy, not least because Russia still does not recognize Kosovo’s independence and vociferously decried NATO’s war against their Serbian ally. NATO airstrikes led to Serbian civilian casualties, but they also helped stave off further rounds of violent ethnic cleansing in the Balkans and stabilize a crisis that had already seen thousands killed and hundreds of thousands more displaced. Putin’s invasion, meanwhile, is defined by the Kremlin’s genocidal rhetoric as well as garish reports of atrocities carried out by Russian troops. It has led to millions of Ukrainians fleeing their homes.

Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani sees an all-together different parallel. The NATO-enabled victory of Kosovo’s fighters over the regime of then-Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic was part of a broader struggle for human rights, the rule of law and democratic principles. “Twenty-three years ago these values were at stake in Kosovo and beyond,” Osmani told me during a Thursday interview in Washington. “Twenty-three years on, it’s the same — these values are at stake in Ukraine.”

Russia’s campaign in Ukraine doesn’t deserve any patina of international legitimacy. It reflects simply, in Osmani’s view, the “sick, imperial tendencies” of the Russian president.

Putin makes his imperial pretensions clear

Osmani was in Washington this past week along with her country’s prime minister, Albin Kurti. They had meetings with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and inked a landmark investment deal with the Millennium Challenge Corporation, a U.S. government entity, which committed $237 million in funding for Kosovo’s energy infrastructure.

But in her conversation with Today’s WorldView, Osmani also warned of the wider perils facing her region, where Russian influence has historically played an outsize role.

“Putin’s aim is to expand the conflict in other parts of the world,” she said. “Since his aim has constantly been to destabilize Europe, we can expect that one of his targets might be the Western Balkans.”

Just this weekend, tensions flared between Kosovo and Serbia. Ethnic Serbs in northern municipalities in Kosovo blockaded roads and skirmished with detachments of police in response to Kosovo authorities’ decision to require vehicles that enter from Serbia to replace their license plates with Kosovo plates; the reverse is necessary for vehicles from Kosovo entering Serbia.

The bureaucratic dispute belied the far greater tensions simmering beneath. Top officials engaged in a war of words. Kurti accused Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic of instigating the violence. Vucic said the two parties had “never been in a more complex situation than today” but vowed Serbian victory regardless. The small NATO mission in Kosovo felt compelled to issue a statement, saying it was “prepared to intervene if stability is jeopardized.”

Also of immediate concern is the situation in Bosnia, whose complex political arrangement that cobbled together its ethnic Bosniak, Croat and Serb populations is looking wobblier than ever. Analysts believe Milorad Dodik, the leader of the semiautonomous ethnic Serb republic within the Bosnian federation, is pushing for a more clear-cut breakaway that could unleash new turmoil in the region. His efforts find close support in both Moscow and Belgrade.

Serbia is, after all, a historic Russian ally and, in Osmani’s words, “fertile ground” for Putin’s influence operations. While most of Europe’s leaders have pursued hostile measures against the Kremlin, Vucic has not. He refused to join the E.U. sanctions regime on Russia. He inked a lucrative gas deal with Moscow earlier this summer even as the rest of the continent is trying to wean itself off Russian energy exports. And as his own nationalist rule has led to an erosion of Serbian democracy and mounting concerns over press freedom, Vucic has also allowed Russian state propaganda outfits to remain operating in Serbia. They play a significant role in fueling polarization in the region.

Analysts point to a wider malaise. “In place of the vision of joining a peaceful, prosperous Europe, there is a growing sense of stagnation in which each country’s historical grievances and unfinished business fester as perennial features of election campaigns and potential conflict triggers,” noted a recent report from the International Crisis Group. “Leaders fan the flames with divisive rhetoric, trying to divert attention from sluggish economies, low living standards, corruption and nepotism.”

Pro-Putin European leaders reassert their power

Osmani views Vucic’s behavior as that of an autocrat who shouldn’t be appeased. Beyond Serbia’s territorial claims in Kosovo, she points to Belgrade’s hand in the instability provoked in Bosnia as well as the alleged pro-Kremlin effort to foment a coup in Montenegro in 2016 to stop its accession into NATO (The attempt failed and some of its alleged ringleaders have been jailed). Lingering visions of a “greater Serbia” animate Vucic’s movement.

On Sunday, a ruling party member of Serbia’s parliament even tweeted that Serbia may “also be forced to begin the denazification of the Balkans,” invoking the same spurious framing through which Putin justified his invasion of Ukraine. Vucic “looks at our countries as temporary countries and tries to deny our very existence,” Osmani said. It is “the very way Putin looks at Ukraine, Moldova and other countries. It is exactly the same strategy.”

Serbia, unlike Russia, is a candidate for European Union membership and occupies a more complicated position within Europe. But the new geopolitics triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed Vucic into a corner.

“They have chosen their path,” Osmani said. “At this time, the Putin path and the European Union path are two different paths and have never been further apart and you can’t walk on both.

“When you have a neighbor that chooses to be on the wrong side of history at this very difficult time for Europe and beyond, it damages the rest of us as well.”

Kosovo, meanwhile, knows which direction it wants to go, but it has a complicated road ahead. It lacks U.N. recognition; Russia’s Security Council veto remains a fundamental impediment; and a considerable chunk of the international community has yet to acknowledge its status as a sovereign, independent nation — including five countries within the European Union.

Osmani believes that may change in the current environment, with the war in Ukraine also giving a boost to Kosovo’s “Euro-Atlantic integration.” She cited Finland and Sweden’s dramatic accession bids to NATO.

“As we all know, to be safe is to be in NATO,” Osmani said, urging the alliance’s member states to “start accelerated steps … toward welcoming also Kosovo and Bosnia into NATO.

Earlier this year, the European Union also fast-tracked the process to confer candidate status to Ukraine, a mark of the continent’s admiration for the Ukrainian struggle. Some critics in the Western Balkans feared this would only further delay their own nations’ stagnating membership bids.

But Osmani disagrees. “For way too long, we felt and heard the enlargement fatigue within the European Union,” she said. “The openness the European Union has shown toward Ukraine has turned the tide in a way that finally the E.U. sees the enlargement process as a geostrategic process rather than a bureaucratic one.”

And what should that strategic vision be?

“A Europe whole and free and at peace is impossible without the Western Balkans,” Osmani said.

Ishaan Tharoor is a columnist on the foreign desk of The Washington Post, where he authors the Today's WorldView newsletter and column. He previously was a senior editor and correspondent at Time magazine, based first in Hong Kong and later in New York.  Twitter
Brutal murder of Nigerian man in Italy prompts George Floyd comparison
Josephine Mckenna
Aug 01 2022

SCREENGRAB/TWITTER
An attack in which a Nigerian street vendor was wrestled to the ground and killed has been likened to the killing of George Floyd in the US in 2020.

Content warning: This story contains details of violence which some readers may find distressing.

Footage of a Nigerian man being beaten to death in front of onlookers in a small Italian town has prompted protests and claims of worsening racism in the country.

Alika Ogorchukwu, a 39-year-old street vendor, was beaten with his own crutch on a busy street in the coastal town of Civitanova Marche around lunchtime on Friday (local time) after reportedly directing a comment to the female companion of the man who killed him.

The attacker reportedly used his knee to crush Ogorchukwu’s head to the ground, prompting comparisons by one Italian newspaper to the killing of George Floyd by police in the US state of Minneapolis in 2020.

There was widespread anger and dismay on social media after several onlookers filmed the killing but failed to intervene. In the video, which has been widely shared on social media, a voice is heard shouting: “You will kill him like that”.

Police have arrested a 32-year-old Italian man on suspicion of murder.

Ogorchukwu’s wife, Charity Oriachi, said on Sunday that she was struggling to come to terms with her husband’s brutal murder and feels shocked at the failure of witnesses to intervene.


CHIARA GABRIELLI/AP
Charity Oriachi is demanding justice after her husband's murder.

“I just want to say I lived for my husband. I want justice,” Oriachi said from her home, where she was surrounded by friends and supporters.

Oriachi joined dozens of protesters in a street protest in Civitanova on Saturday, where another protest is planned next weekend. Ogorchukwu, the father of an 8-year-old son, was well-known in the town.

Italian politicians across the spectrum have spoken out against the Marche murder but Giorgia Meloni, leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy, and Matteo Salvini, head of the right-wing Northern League, were criticised for taking too long to react to the murder on Saturday.

Salvini used the incident to complain about crime levels and later published figures highlighting a jump in undocumented migrant arrivals. Meloni said there was “no justification for such brutality”.

CHIARA GABRIELLI/AP
A woman places a bouquet of flowers where Ogorchukwu was killed.

Ogorchukwu’s killing has focused fresh attention on the Marche region where Luca Traini, a far-right extremist, shot and wounded six African migrants in Macerata in February 2018, just weeks before previous national elections.

Daniel Amanze, the president of the non-profit Migrant Services Association in Marche, accused the country’s right-wing politicians of promoting a xenophobic climate of racism and hatred that had worsened since the Macerata attack.

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“There is zero tolerance, people can react however they want,” Amanze told The Telegraph. “We are living in fear. Politicians speak about security, but it’s not for all citizens.”

Fabrizio Ciarapica, the newly elected, centre-right mayor of Civitanova, defended his town on Facebook, saying it was a “generous, peaceful and supportive” community and that the council had pledged to provide €15,000 (NZ$24,384) to the victim’s family for funeral expenses and other support.

In a separate incident, a Moroccan man is in a critical condition in hospital after he was stabbed in a bar in the town of Recanati, around 13 miles from Civitanova Marche, on Friday night.

The Telegraph