Sunday, August 07, 2022

UN experts claim Rwandan troops have been fighting alongside M23 rebels in DRC

5 August 2022

Image: Reuters

Democratic Republic of Congo military personnel (FARDC) patrol against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and the National Army for the Liberation of Uganda (NALU) rebels near Beni in North-Kivu province, December 31, 2013.

Are Webb Telescope discoveries a marvel of science, God or both?

Khabarhub
July 28, 2022

This image of a nearby, young, star-forming region called NGC 3324 in the Carina Nebula was released by NASA July 12, 2022. Captured in infrared light by the James Webb Space Telescope, this image reveals for the first time previously invisible areas of solar system/NASA

When images beamed back to Earth by NASA’s largest, most powerful space telescope were released earlier this month, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio shared one of them on Twitter accompanied by a Bible verse: “The heavens declare the glory of God.”

The Webb telescope is orbiting the sun nearly two million kilometers from Earth. The observatory is on a mission to locate the universe’s first galaxies using extremely sensitive infrared cameras. The initial images released to the public provided the first-ever glimpse of ancient galaxies lighting up the sky.

The reaction to Rubio’s post was inundated with remarks like, “You do realize you can only see that due to science?” And, “If only you were scientifically literate enough to understand all of the ways that this image disproves your mythology.”

Reason versus superstition?

The skeptical comments are emblematic of the long-standing, ongoing debate about whether science and religion can be reconciled.

“There are a gazillion religions, each one making a different set of claims about reality, not just about the nature of God, but about history, about miracles, about what happened. And they’re all different, so they can’t all be true,” says Jerry A. Coyne, an evolutionary biologist and professor emeritus at the University of Chicago.

Coyne, who likens religion to superstition, wrote a book called, “Faith Versus Fact: Why Science and Religion are Incompatible.”

“The incompatibility is that both science and religion make statements about what is true in the universe,” Coyne says. “Science has a way of verifying them and religion doesn’t. So, science is based on this sort of science toolkit of empirical reasoning or duplicating experiments, whereas religion is based on faith.”

Coyne says he was raised a secular Jew and became an atheist as a teenager.

“Scientists are, in general, much less religious than the general public. And the more accomplished you get as a scientist, the less religious you become,” he says.

A 1998 survey found that 93% of the members of the National Academy of Sciences, one of the most prestigious scientific organizations in the U.S., don’t believe in God.

“I personally think there’s a couple of reasons for that,” says Kenneth Miller, a devout Roman Catholic and professor of molecular biology, cell biology and biochemistry at Brown University in Rhode Island. “One of them, to be perfectly honest, is the out-and-out hostility that many religious institutions or many religious groups display towards science. And I think that tends to drive people with deep religious faith away from science.”

Mixing science and faith

Some of the world’s foremost scientists have been people of faith, however.

The Big Bang theory, which explains the origins of the universe, was first proposed by a Catholic priest who was also an astronomer and physics professor.

Frances Collins, the former head of the National Institutes of Health who headed the international effort that first mapped the entire human genome, is a one-time atheist who now identifies as an evangelical Christian.

Farouk El-Baz, a professor in the departments of archaeology and electrical and computer engineering at Boston University, says most of his scientific colleagues see no conflict between science and religion. For El-Baz, the son of an Islamic scholar, the marvel of the Webb telescope’s discoveries deepens both.

“Science actually underlines the importance of religion because God told us that He created the Earth and the heavens,” says El-Baz, who is also director of the Center for Remote Sensing at Boston University. “And the heavens, there are supposed to be all kinds of things out there. And scientific investigations have actually proved that, yes, there are all kinds of things out there.”

Evolution, creationism or both

For many, the conflict between science and religion is often rooted in the perceived incongruity between creationism — which suggests that a divine being created Earth and the heavens — and evolution, which holds that living organisms developed over 4.5 billion years.

Miller accepts the theory of evolution and says much of scripture is metaphorical, an explanation of the relationship between Creator and His creation in language that could be understood by people living in a prescientific age.

“[The book of] Genesis, taken literally, is a recent product of certain religious interpretations of scripture,” Miller says. “In particular, it’s an interpretation that became quite influential in the latter part of the 19th century among Christian fundamentalists in the United States. And the reality is that much of scripture is figurative rather than literal.”

Jewish tradition also accepts evolution, according to intellectual historian Hava Tirosh-Samuelson, who suggests that the rise of the religious Christian right in the United States also influenced more observant Jews to harden their position against evolution.

“Medieval Jewish philosophy basically followed the Muslim paradigm,” says Tirosh-Samuelson, a professor of history and director of the Center for Jewish Studies at Arizona State University. “The Muslim theologians and the Muslim scholars showed Jews how you can integrate a monotheistic tradition together with Greek and Hellenistic science … and showed how scientific knowledge is always a tool that enables you to understand the divinely created world better.”

Vision of God

In Miller’s view, the concept of God as a designer who worked out every intricate detail of every single living thing is too narrow a vision of the Creator.

“The God that is revealed by evolution is not a God who has to literally tinker with every little piece of trivia in every living organism, but rather a God who created a universe in a world where the very physical conditions of matter and energy were sufficient to accomplish his ends,” Miller says. “And to me, that conception of God creating this extraordinary process that nature itself allows to come about is a much grander vision than a God who has to concern himself with every little detail.”

El-Baz says some people fear that science will reduce their religiosity, but the reverse is true for him.

“We understood through God’s guidance that humans evolved from other creatures, and evolution is still going on, and there’s absolutely no conflict between what science and religion are informing us,” he says. “It’s very easy to consider that a creator, or a force of creation — God or whatever faith you have — that it’s a force that put all of these things together, that created all of this.”

Tirosh-Samuelson says Judaism is not a literalist tradition but rather favors open ended interpretation, which is in keeping with her reaction to the Webb discoveries.

“The grandeur of the universe. The grandeur of God. The grandeur of the human. And in my view, there’s no contradiction between those three. On the contrary, there’s a lot of complementarity between the three,” she says.

“Jewish culture is really pretty much open to discussion and debate about practically every topic. So, there’s something very much in accord with the scientific spirit of inquiry, questioning, uncertainty, skepticism. That’s exactly the opposite of a position that is about certainty and rigidity and closed-mindedness.”

(By Dora Mekouar/VOA)

NASA identifies the strange object its rover found on Mars

Extraterrestrial debris.

By Mark Kaufman on August 6, 2022

A tangle of debris found on Mars. Credit: NASA

When a spacecraft dramatically parachutes down to a distant world, debris will inevitably litter the landing site.

NASA has documented the diverse debris scattered by the 2021 landing of its high-tech Perseverance rover, including a strange-looking ball of tangled, "spaghetti"-like material, which the space agency believes they've identified.

"It should be noted that discarded debris are common in space missions," NASA scientist Justin Maki wrote in a Mars blog.

SEE ALSO: What NASA actually said about the space rock that hit the Webb telescope

NASA suspects the tangled detritus — which stirred intrigue on the internet — is a piece of netting (called "Dacron netting") that is used in thermal blankets to protect the spacecraft from extreme temperatures and conditions, like when plunging through the Martian atmosphere at some 12,000 mph. Elsewhere, the rover found other scattered remnants of thermal material.

This particular ball of netting looks strange and tangled because it was likely "subjected to strong forces," NASA's Maki concluded, perhaps when a key part of the rover's landing gear crashed nearby, leaving a plume of smoke rising from the Martian desert.

The Perseverance rover spotted this tangled debris in July 2022.

Credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech

The crashed backshell from the Perseverance rover, which

protected the robot as it traveled through space and the Martian

atmosphere. Credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech

The car-sized rover will likely continue to find wind-strewn detritus as it scours the Martian surface for potential hints of past, primitive life on Mars.

Importantly, NASA is watching to ensure any samples the rover collects aren't potentially contaminated by any Earth debris. "Perseverance team members are reviewing images of the debris, checking to see if the material may pose as a potential contamination source for the sample tubes from this area," Maki said. "Although there are no immediate concerns identified by the teams at this time, the teams are documenting the EDL [Entry, Descent, and Landing gear] debris materials as they are identified."

Perseverance is rumbling through the Jezero Crater, a region planetary scientists say once teemed with water, back when large swathes of Mars were blue, not red.

Curiosity marks 10 years on Mars as discoveries continue

written by Anthony Iemole August 6, 2022

After successfully landing on Mars on August 6, 2012 (UTC), Curiosity continues to unlock the secrets of the Red Planet as the vehicle explores Gale Crater. Since landing, the rover has traveled over 17.5 miles (28.1 km) and made multiple scientific discoveries. Curiosity is now in the process of exploring and traversing Mount Sharp, the 5.5-kilometer-high mountain that lies in the center of Gale Crater.

Journey to the Red Planet

Curiosity’s journey began on November 26, 2011, when it was launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket in the 541 configuration. The 541 configuration signifies that the launch vehicle utilized the five-meter-diameter fairing, four solid rocket boosters (SRBs), and a single engine on the Centaur upper stage.

Once it reached an initial parking orbit of 165 × 324 km (103 × 201 miles), the Centaur upper stage fired for one final time to put the vehicle on a course for Mars.

Curiosity’s cruise stage (top) is mated with the conical aeroshell. Notice how one of Curiosity’s wheels is visible peeking out from the bottom of the aeroshell. (Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS)

After deploying from the upper stage, the vehicle spent over eight months coasting through deep space and performed four trajectory correction maneuvers to fine-tune its trajectory as it approached the Red Planet. During this time, the rover was encapsulated inside its aeroshell, attached to the cruise stage. The aeroshell was designed to protect and maneuver the rover as it entered and descended through Mars’ atmosphere, while the cruise stage provided power, communication, and temperature control to the rover while en route to Mars.

As the vehicle approached the Red Planet, it jettisoned its cruise stage around 10 minutes before atmospheric entry.

Upon reaching the atmosphere, the vehicle entered the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) phase of the mission, which the mission team nicknamed “The Seven Minutes of Terror.”

As the vehicle entered the Martian atmosphere, the aeroshell began to fire maneuvering thrusters to keep the vehicle on a correct course toward its landing site. During entry, the heatshield protected the rover from temperatures upwards of 1600°F (871°C) during peak heating.

Once it was safely through atmospheric entry, the vehicle deployed a parachute to slow down further. This parachute was the largest supersonic parachute flown at the time, opening up to a diameter of around 16 meters (51 ft).

After descending under parachute for just under two minutes, the rover separated from the aeroshell and continued its descent using its rocket-powered skycrane. The skycrane acted as the rover’s final descent stage, slowing the vehicle down to enable a soft landing on the surface. The skycrane – while hovering with its engines – then used cables to lower the rover down the final few meters onto the surface to prevent too much debris from getting kicked up by the skycrane’s engines.

Curiosity descending toward Mars under parachute, as pictured by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). While taking this picture, MRO was also receiving telemetry from the descending rover and transmitting it back to Earth. (Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS)

The system was the first of its kind ever used on a mission and was needed due to the vehicle’s immense mass compared to previous rovers. Curiosity masses 899 kilograms (1,982 lb) while previous rovers such as Spirit and Opportunity were much smaller – only 185 kg (408 lb) – and were able to utilize an airbag system to land safely.

Curiosity’s updated twin, Perseverance, also used the skycrane system to land on Mars in February of 2021.

Now safely on the ground, the tether connecting the two craft was severed – allowing the skycrane to fly a safe distance away from the rover and crash as intended. The vehicle spent the next few weeks performing checkouts and drive tests to verify all systems were operating nominally.

10 Years and Still Going

With a decade of exploration under its belt, Curiosity has far surpassed the initial mission requirements, originally intended to last just two years.

This exploration has not come without a cost though, as the rover’s wheels have taken considerable damage after traversing 28 km – much of which has been over rocky terrain. However, Curiosity’s mission team has been able to slow the degradation of the wheels.

Measures are being taken to try to drive on smoother terrain, and the team even made an algorithm to adjust the speed of Curiosity’s wheels depending on the rocks it’s climbing. The mission team now also commands the rover to use its Mars Hand Lens Imager (MAHLI) instrument located on its robotic arm to image the wheels after every 500 meters (1,640 feet) of driving.

An image of one of Curiosity’s wheels, showing the intense degradation after a decade of driving on the Red Planet. (Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS)

Despite the wear and tear on Curiosity’s wheels, the mobile science laboratory continues to drive, including climbing 612 meters (2000 ft) in elevation since landing as the rover continues to ascend Mount Sharp. This elevation change has allowed the science team to investigate younger rocks and rock layers that help shed light on Mars’ watery past.

“We no longer see the lake deposits that we saw for years lower on Mount Sharp,” said Ashwin Vasavada, Curiosity’s project scientist.

This change comes as Curiosity has been driving through a transition zone for the past year, where the rover is now seeing fewer clay minerals and more sulfate.

Curiosity is not only unlocking the secrets of Mars’s past. Throughout its time on Mars, the rover has constantly been taking radiation measurements using its Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) instrument. Measuring the amount of radiation the rover is exposed to is vital in helping scientists figure out the best ways to protect astronauts on future missions to the Red Planet.

One interesting find was back in 2016 when Curiosity was parked near the outcrop “Murray Buttes” from September 9 to 21. While parked near the outcrop, the RAD instrument detected a 4% decrease in overall radiation, with a 7.5% decrease in neutral particle radiation. The reason for the decrease was due to the rover being parked near the outcrop, which in turn blocked some of the radiation from reaching the rover.

A wide field-of-view selfie from Curiosity showing the site around Murray Buttes, which is visible in the background to the left. (Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS)

Such data opens up the possibilities of potentially using Martian regolith to protect habitats from radiation on the surface, or using the surface itself by building habitats in Martian lava tubes.

Curiosity also measured the total organic carbon in Martian rocks for the first time, in a sample taken from “Yellowknife Bay” in 2014. Despite taking place in 2014, the data required years of analysis to understand the full context.

“We found at least 200 to 273 parts per million of organic carbon. This is comparable to or even more than the amount found in rocks in very low-life places on Earth, such as parts of the Atacama Desert in South America, and more than has been detected in Mars meteorites,” said Jennifer Stern of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

Organic carbon is the basis for organic molecules. The presence of these organic molecules does not necessarily indicate life, as they can be formed through natural processes. However, their presence – along with previous evidence of Mars’ habitably in the past – is interesting to many scientists.

Some of the 35 holes Curiosity has drilled in Gale Crater. (Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS)

The rover obtained these materials using its drill located on the robotic arm of the vehicle. Once a rock target is selected, the drill can take a sample up to two inches deep inside of the rock. During the drilling process, the rock is ground up into a powder and is then able to be transferred to the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument.

SAM then heats the sample to about 1,500°F (850°C) and combines it with oxygen to convert the organic carbon into CO2. The rover then measures the amount of CO2 created, which is used to determine exactly how much organic carbon was present in the sample.

During the past decade, Curiosity has returned 3,102 gigabytes of data and drilled 35 samples. This data has yielded 883 scientific papers so far. While the rover is now dealing with wheel wear and less power from its Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG), the robotic vehicle has exceeded expectations and is expected to continue making scientific discoveries for years to come.

(Lead photo: One of the many “selfies” captured by Curiosity during its mission on Mars. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS)

SPACE RACE 2.0

South Korea’s first lunar orbiter on way to the moon

by Park Si-soo — August 5, 2022

a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Aug. 4, carrying South Korea’s first robotic lunar orbiter. Credit: YouTube video still

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea’s first lunar orbiter has begun its voyage toward the moon on a mission critical to the country’s future space projects.

The 678-kilogram spacecraft, named Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) or Danuri in Korean, launched on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station’s Launch Complex 40 at 7:08 p.m. Eastern, Aug. 4.

The Danuri orbiter is carrying six scientific instruments, including a hypersensitive optical camera, ShadowCam, provided by NASA and a “space internet” demonstrator developed by South Korea’s Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute, which will validate an interplanetary internet connection using delay-disruption tolerant networking.

The orbiter was working normally and traveling on a planned trajectory toward the moon, said the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI), which controls the spacecraft. It is expected to enter the moon’s orbit in December before starting a year-long observation mission. If it succeeds, South Korea will become the world’s seventh lunar explorer, after the former Soviet Union, the U.S., China, India, the European Union and Japan.

The Falcon 9’s upper stage deployed its dedicated payload 40 minutes after liftoff. The rocket’s first stage made a pinpoint landing on the SpaceX droneship “Just Read the Instructions” nine minutes after liftoff. It was the sixth touchdown to date for the booster, SpaceX said.

The launch was scheduled for Aug. 2 but was delayed two days to allow time for SpaceX to complete additional work on the Falcon 9 rocket.

The orbiter, developed by KARI, unfurled its two solar panels shortly after the deployment and exchanged first signals with a NASA ground station in Canberra, Australia, about 45 minutes later, according to KARI. It will stay connected to the Earth around the clock through a network of four ground stations — Korea Deep Space Antenna in South Korea; NASA’s Canberra Deep Space Communication Complex in Australia; Madrid Deep Space Communications Complex in Spain; and Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex in the United States.

South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol hailed the successful launch, calling the spacecraft “pathfinder” that will give a boost to South Korea’s economy and scientific prowess. “Danuri has just begun its 130-day journey toward the moon,” Yoon wrote on Facebook. “I look forward to seeing images of the moon and BTS’s ‘Dynamite’ the Danuri will send (to Earth) at the end of the year. Go for it, Danuri!”

Dynamite is Korean pop star BTS’s mega-hit song, and the Korean orbiter will conduct a test of sending a file of its music video to the Earth from the lunar orbit in a “space internet” technology demonstration.

KPLO’s lunar trajectory

The KPLO is set to fly to the moon on a low-energy, fuel-efficient ballistic lunar transfer trajectory, a path being pioneered by NASA’s CAPSTONE cubesat, launched in late June on Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket from New Zealand.

The KPLO is currently on a trajectory that will take it close to the L1 Lagrange point, a gravitationally stable location nearly 1.5 million kilometers from the Earth and four times farther than the moon. Gravitational forces will naturally pull the orbiter back toward the Earth and the moon.

The Korean spacecraft — if everything goes as planned — will be captured in lunar orbit on Dec. 16, according to KARI. A series of propulsive maneuvers with the spacecraft’s thrusters will steer it into a circular, low-altitude orbit about 100 kilometers from the lunar surface by Dec. 31. After a brief period of commissioning and tests, the spacecraft’s yearlong mission is expected to begin in January.

Science objectives

With the six instruments aboard, the orbiter will collect a variety of data orbiting the moon twelve times a day. NASA’s ShadowCam will peer into permanently shadowed craters at the lunar poles in search of large quantities of ice that radar observations suggest is present. To see into the dark shadows and spot hidden ice, ShadowCam has been designed to be several hundred times more light-sensitive than any previous camera to have gone to the moon, according to NASA.

Collected data will be shared with NASA, which aims to send humans to the moon in the coming years under its Artemis program.

A South Korea-developed gamma-ray spectrometer called KGRS will look for any spontaneous gamma ray bursts produced by massive dying stars; a magnetometer called KMAG will track the magnetic field between Earth and the Moon; and a high-resolution camera LUTI will take high-resolution images of the lunar surface, which would be used for South Korea’s lunar landing mission targeted for the early 2030s.

The orbiter is also armed with PolCam, a wide-angle polarimetric camera that will study the bulk properties of the lunar surface material. The space internet test will be conducted by the Disruption Tolerant Network Experiment Payload (DTNPL).

South Korea began developing the KPLO mission in 2016 for a planned launch in 2020, but officials delayed the mission after the spacecraft grew above its original launch weight, and engineers needed more time to revise its design and other details. This project cost 236.7 billion won ($182 million).

Twitter hits back at Elon Musk’s ‘implausible’ case against $44bn deal

5th August 2022
George Iddenden

Twitter has hit back Elon Musk ‘implausible’ case against the $44 billion deal to buy the social media platform.

Musk has been accused of creating a “new set of excuses” to avoid honouring his $44 billion agreement to buy the platform, calling his recently filed objections “implausible and contrary to fact”.

Twitter sued Musk last month to force the deal through, however Musk countersued in order to block the social media company’s efforts.

Musk claimed in his suit that Twitter had breached an agreement by greatly underestimating the proportion of spam and bots on its platform. The billionaire’s own analysis estimated the number of bot or spam accounts to be at least 10% of all users, whereas Twitter’s estimates came in at less than 5% of accounts.

READ MORE: Twitter blames Elon Musk for revenue miss

He also said that the company overstated just how many of its users are monetisable by approximately 65 million.

Musk believes that only about 16 million users were seeing the “majority” of advertising.

Twitter hit back at the claims, calling them “factually inaccurate, legally insufficient, and commercially irrelevant”

“Musk’s counterclaims, based as they are on distortion, misrepresentation, and outright deception, change nothing,” the company said.

Musk has sent a subpoena to both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase asking for details on how they advised Twitter, the Financial Times reported.

This involved requesting any documents detailing financial performance, discussions with the company about the deal and any analysis of its valuation.

THE $40,000 CYBERTRUCK IS OFFICIALLY DEAD

"I THINK THERE'S NO WAY TO HAVE SORT OF ANTICIPATED QUITE THE INFLATION THAT WE'VE SEEN."

TESLA/FUTURISM

Oopsie

Elon Musk has a spot of bad news for his Tesla fanboys: Cybertrucks are going to end up costing more than the $40K price-point they were promised.

"I hate to sort of give a little bit of bad news," Musk told the enthusiastic crowd at Tesla's 2022 shareholder meeting this week after announcing that the long-awaited truck's "specs and pricing will be different" from the $39,900 he promised three years ago.

Ch-ch-changes

Not only will the trucks cost more — and Musk didn't specify the new price — but they might also take another year to ship, per the Tesla CEO.

"A lot has changed" since 2019, Musk said, referencing the year he first announced the Cybertruck and began taking $99 reservations for the motorized trapezoids.

"I think there's no way to have sort of anticipated quite the inflation that we've seen," he continued. "But what I can say is that the Cybertruck will be one helluva product. It's going to be like a damn fine machine."

Musk added that Tesla is purportedly "installing the production equipment, the tooling and all starting in the next couple of months" on its reserved Cybertrucks. We'll believe it when we see it — given that, thus far, everything we've seen and heard about the truck absolutely does not seem like it's ready to roll.

READ MORE: Elon Musk Has Bad News About Tesla's Cybertruck [TheStreet]

More from the Tesla shareholders meeting: Concerned Shareholders Heckled While Addressing Tesla Ethics

Escalating Big Power Contestation on Taiwan: Can It Lead to War?

August 6, 2022
By Gen. Shashi Asthana

Xi Jinping is seeking to hide his humiliation over US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. His premature and unjustifiable warning to the US about the visit caused him embarrassment, and Pelosi’s purposeful visit after the warning not only hyped it, but humiliated him. China is using its Three Warfare Concept which entails public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare along with aggressive military posturing, air violations, firepower power exhibition and some symbolic economic boycott of Taiwan, thus creating heightened tension around Taiwan as a face saving exercise to amuse its domestic constituency. China is attempting to turn it as an opportunity to stoke national sentiments in favour of Xi Jinping on ‘Anti America’ theme highlighting Chinese mutilated version of his heroics to ensure that he doesn’t lose out on his third term in the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) later this year.

The US side has likewise been under similar pressures. Following the announcement of Pelosi’s visit and the contentious debate between President Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, the US found itself in a difficult situation. The USA was unable to cancel the trip in response to Xi’s warning because doing so would have indicated that Joe Biden was caving in to Chinese pressure. This would have been catastrophic for the Biden Administration, which is already struggling to recover from the disaster in Afghanistan and the difficulties brought on by the Russia-Ukraine War. Although the visit was a risky move, it is still unclear whether the US will follow it up by replacing strategic ambiguity with strategic clarity to support Taiwan in any prospective Chinese attack or not.

Can it Lead to War?

With unprecedented military posturing by China, live missile fire East of Taiwan close to its coastline, and US aircraft carrier and maritime forces located not too far, the situation is tense and prone to accidental trigger causing escalation. It does not make any strategic sense for China to invade Taiwan, as it has all the negatives except false bravado, with bright chances of loss of face globally and domestically, in case the operations fail; hence, likely to contend with activities short of war.

Chinese strategist Qiao Liang, a retired PLA Air Force Major General, has warned that taking Taiwan by force is ‘Too Costly’. Chinese redline of “Taiwan going nuclear/declaring independence” has not been crossed as yet, giving no justification for China to cross US red line of ‘Changing status Quo by Force’. Xi Jinping may find it too costly to take such a risk before sealing his third term. The military drills near Taiwan have been conducted by Taiwan and US also in past and the much publicised blockade of Taiwan through military drills, if prolonged may invite similar military drills by US and other democracies in Malacca Strait too, to block Chinese Sea Lines of Communication, beyond the realm of optics of the current Chinese aggressive posture, and it is well aware of this vulnerability.

Taiwanese President Tsai has bravely given bold statements during visit of Speaker Pelosi and earlier to take on Chinese aggression. Taiwan with its national spirit, modern arsenal from US, determined armed forces and US backing is unlikely to give a walkover, although the first onslaught of potential offensive will have to be borne by it, till global response gets activated. Comparisons are being made with Hong Kong, but the major differences is that leadership, hierarchy in Hong Kong and police was manipulated by CCP, whereas the leadership in Taiwan is strong and resolute refusing to give in to Chinese coercion. The need for amphibious assault due to terrain friction makes Chinese misadventure in Taiwan more difficult than Hong Kong.

Chinese amphibious capabilities to capture Taiwan are suspect, more so if US warships like the USS Ronald Reagan are around. China has enough missile arsenals to destroy Taiwan, but such a massive destruction of Han Chinese (95 percent of Taiwanese population is Han), who have relations, investments and inseparable linkages with their relatives in mainland and vice versa will not go well with domestic population of mainland. Over two million Taiwanese live in China, mostly in Coastal areas, and over 20 per cent have married there.

This will also destroy Chinese and Taiwanese economy, which does not suit Chinese leadership struggling to revive its economy marred by trade war, failing BRI and COVID effect. China is top destination for Taiwanese export accounting for approximately 40% of total exports, with Taiwan having overall trade surplus of US$104.7 billion in 2021 with China.

A public opinion poll in Taiwan in 2020 indicated 73 percent people identified themselves as Taiwanese, who were against China, and 77 percent supported democratic movement in Hongkong and this figure has increased in last two years. Getting Taiwanese under its wings will also bring a fresh democratic wave in China, which CCP may not be used to handle. Taiwanese people do not want to sacrifice their democratic freedom and prosperity, which is the main reason for success of President Tsai. The conflict if imposed by China will be deadly and Chinese, who want to win without fighting are not known for their appetite to accept body bags of Han Chinese, for a cause which doesn’t give them economic benefit but takes it away its dream of national rejuvenation, as indicated by General Qiao.

Why Taiwan is a US-China Issue?

PRC may keep claiming Taiwan to be its domestic issue, but it has much greater external dimensions. Diplomatically US may claim to follow ‘One China Policy’ but it treats Taiwan no less than an ally. The Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019, effective from March 26, 2020 is an indication. The Taiwan Relation Act,1973, Taiwan Travel Act signed 2019, and National Defence Authorisation Act signed earlier this year to facilitate sale of state of the art weaponry and joint exercises justify the statement. US will always like to trade and strategically partner with democratic Taiwan outside Beijing’s influence, and not Taiwan under CCP.

In any potential invasion of Taiwan, the spill over of the battle space to Japan is obvious due to geographic proximity, an ally which US is obligated to protect. Chinese initial offensive can be on Taiwan, but US could join forces with its allies in the region to use their sea and air advantages to cut off Beijing’s maritime lifeline in and outside South China Sea. Chinese supply lines outside Nine dash line are still vulnerable to choking, and it will draw out PLA to get into war outside its comfort Zone. Taking Taiwan by force, therefore involves mobilisation of all its combat resources, expecting an escalation from limited war to an all-out war, as the operation amounts to crossing US redline of “No Change in Status Quo of Taiwan”. Economically Chinese heavy reliance on the US dollar is far from over, and such a war over Taiwan would be a massive economic blow to China, that would see capital flooding out, and companies moving of the country, much sooner than it thought.

Way Ahead

If Chinese aggressive posturing, air incursions and military drills announced for four days end as scheduled without escalation, may be that situation may still remain under control, as US and Taiwan have also done military drills in that region earlier. If it escalates into an attempt to unite Taiwan by force, it will certainly up the ante with US, prove China as irresponsible bully, may lead to loss of life of Han Chinese both ways, lead to economic destruction of its one of the largest investors and jeopardise China’s goal of national rejuvenation. Internationally, China may have miscalculated US resolve and Taiwan’s resistance and all may not go their way. If Chinese ambitions grow beyond global tolerance, it has bright chances to bring rest of the world against China. While the visit of Nancy Pelosi may have given a strong message to China, but the US resolve is still under test, because Taiwan can’t be expected to handle Chinese aggression alone, more so if it has been hyped by super power contestation. US therefore must consider starting similar military exercise in Malacca Strait with other navies to remind China of its vulnerable SLOC before it starts blocking Taiwanese shipping.

The aggressive posturing in Taiwan Strait, South and East China Sea will continue, even if the current crisis slows down. PRC’s aim is to pressurise President Tsai Not to declare independence, keep pressure on, hope DPP loses next election and work out favourable arrangements with opposition likely to be favourable to China. Neither China nor US want war, but none wants to give walkover as well, hence this strategic gaming and posturing is on and will continue.

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Gen. Shashi Asthana
The author is a veteran Infantry General with 40 years experience in international fields and UN. A globally acknowledged strategic & military writer/analyst; he is currently the Chief Instructor of USI of India, the oldest Indian Think-tank in India.

Amazon defends stance on trade unions as new Dublin facility opens

Communications Workers Union: 'It is of major concern that the company is anti-trade union'

The Amazon fulfilment centre at Baldonnell Business Park in Dublin was opened this week.

Picture: Sasko Lazarov - RollingNews.ie

FRI, 05 AUG, 2022 -
ALAN HEALY

Amazon opened its first package fulfilment centre in Ireland this week and defended itself against union claims and criticisms of its treatment of workers.

The new warehouse in Baldonnell, Co. Dublin, will create 500 jobs and will allow the company to provide faster delivery times for customers across Ireland, Amazon said.

However, the opening of the facility comes as one of the largest companies in the world faces scrutiny in various countries for its approach to workers joining unions and a walk-out by 800 workers in a dispute over pay at an Amazon warehouse in England this week.

On the commencement of operations in Ireland, the Communications Workers Union (CWU) said Amazon must respect industrial relations mechanisms in Ireland and engage positively with workers who organise into a trade union.

“It is well known that Amazon does not have a positive history globally, in terms of good industrial relations and in its treatment of workers," CWU General Secretary, Seán McDonagh, said. "It is of major concern that the company is anti-trade union."

The CWU, the primary trade union representing workers in the logistics and delivery sectors, said the potential for an operator of Amazon's scale to have a downward influence on pay and conditions in the industry is of particular concern.

"The CWU would wish to talk to Amazon on a range of issues that will benefit their employees and contractors and ensure that the company respects the industrial relations machinery that we have in the state," Mr McDonagh said.

Defending their work practices, Amazon told the Irish Examiner that employees have the choice of whether or not to join a union.

"As a company, we don’t think unions are the best answer for our employees. Every day we empower people to find ways to improve their jobs, and when they do that we want to make those changes — quickly. That type of continuous improvement is harder to do quickly and nimbly with unions in the middle," the company said in a statement.

"We already offer competitive pay, comprehensive benefits and opportunities for career growth, all while working in a modern, safe and engaging work environment."

Amazon unveils first Irish fulfilment centre in Dublin

5th August 2022
Isabel Cameron

Amazon has opened its first Irish warehouse in Dublin, with the site expected to create 500 jobs.

The ecommerce giant confirmed that the fulfilment centre, located at Baldonnell Business Park, opened this week and is the first of its kind in the Republic of Ireland.

The 630,000 square-foot centre will serve customers across the island of Ireland and the rest of Europe, housing millions of products.

READ MORE: Amazon workers protest over 35p pay rise

“We are delighted to have opened the doors of our first fulfilment centre in Dublin this week,” the company said in a statement.

“We are focusing on welcoming our new team and preparing the site in readiness to start delivering to our customers across Ireland.”

Recruitment is underway, with employee wages expected to begin at €13.50 an hour.

The long-promised distribution centre will improve delivery times for Irish Amazon customers and add to the company’s prsence in the country.

Tullow Oil’s past exploration fame sputters out with Guyana flop

The firm is now focusing on assets in West Africa, where the company has increased its stake in its flagship Jubilee field off Ghana.

Rahul Dhir (pictured) took the helm in 2020 following a disastrous year for the company that saw its production outlook slashed, its dividend suspended and its CEO resign.

FRI, 05 AUG, 2022 -

Irish-founded Tullow Oil, which once thrilled shareholders with big-ticket discoveries in Africa, has seen its reputation for frontier finds fizzle out with a final well off Guyana proving a dud.

The Beebei-Potaro well hit water, and has been plugged and abandoned, the company said yesterday. That caps a string of failures for Tullow in the Guyana-Suriname basin, vindicating Chief Executive Officer Rahul Dhir’s decision to shift the firm away from risky exploration and concentrate on producing fields.

Dhir took the helm in 2020 following a disastrous year for the company that saw its production outlook slashed, its dividend suspended and its CEO resign. Tullow’s credibility as a successful explorer had started to crumble as it questioned the commercial viability of discoveries in Guyana, while a key well off neighboring Suriname subsequently also proved to be a duster.

The Beebei-Potaro well in the Kanuku license, drilled to a depth of more than 14,000 feet, had been the firm’s one potentially high-impact well this year.

“It may be likely that it’s the last well of the Guyana-Suriname basin, or even just from a frontier/high-impact nature for Tullow," said Will Hares, a global energy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Exploration has become peripheral in the strategy to lower risk” at the company.

Tullow spokesman George Cazenove confirmed that the firm has fulfilled its well obligations at the Kanuku license, which expires in 2023, and said the company is “working on next steps” with its partners.

Repsol is the operator of the Kanuku permit, with a 37.5% working interest. Tullow also owns 37.5%, with TOQAP - a venture between TotalEnergies and Qatar Petroleum - holding the remainder.

Dhir is now focusing on assets in West Africa, where the company has increased its stake in its flagship Jubilee field off Ghana.

The firm is also hunting for a partner for its Kenya project and working to push through a takeover of Capricorn Energy Plc - a deal that would boost its African resources and open up opportunities for expansion across the continent.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment

Sunday, August 07, 2022

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