Sunday, August 14, 2022

 

WHAT ABOUT ERIC PRINCE?!

Guest Post: “Wagner Group Atrocities – Holding Russia Accountable Under Prosecutor v. Tadic?”  

Today’s guest post is by Army judge advocate LTC Alex Kostin (writing in his personal capacity).  He argues for accountability for the atrocities allegedly committed in Ukraine by the Russian military company, the Wagner Group, and provides a path for doing so. 

What is the Wagner Group?  Last April the BBC reported on its origins and said this:

“British military intelligence says 1,000 mercenaries from the Russian private military company, the Wagner Group, are being deployed to eastern Ukraine. The group has been active over the past eight years in Ukraine, Syria and African countries, and has repeatedly been accused of war crimes and human rights abuses.”

Notably, in the U.S. view merely being a mercenary is not illegal under international law.  The DoD Law of War Manual (¶ 4.21) says:

“The act of being a mercenary is not a crime in customary international law nor in any treaty to which the United States is a Party.Under the customary law of war and the GPW, “mercenaries” receive the rights, duties, and liabilities of combatant status on the same basis as other persons.” 

The U.S. does recognize that there are a “number of treaty provisions [that] are intended to repress mercenary activities” but points out that the “United States has not accepted any such provision because these efforts are not consistent with fundamental principles of the law of war.” (¶ 4.21.1).   

For a variety of technical and other reasons, even those States parties to treaties intended to repress mercenary activities have nevertheless had little success in prosecuting the Group for being mercenaries.

However, the focus of this post is not simply about being a “mercenary,” per se, but rather the commission of war crimes.  On that score the U.S. insists:

“Mercenaries must comply with the law of war and may be tried and punished for violations of the law of war on the same basis as other persons. States that employ mercenaries are responsible for their conduct, including their compliance with the law of war.” (¶ 4.21) 

LTC Kostin concludes that the Group is, de facto, an entity of the Russian state, and it is responsible for the Wagner Group’s actions. 

Importantly, he further contends that the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) case of the Prosecutor v. Tadic provides a useful blueprint as to how a prosecution might be framed, to include holding the Russian state accountable. 

Lots to think about here, so take a look at his argument!

Wagner Group Atrocities – Holding Russia Accountable Under Prosecutor v. Tadic 

by LTC Alex A, Kostin, USAR, JAGC*

February 24, 2022, marked a dark page in the world’s history when Russia launched an unprovoked war against Ukraine. The international community should not let Russia get away with the gross international humanitarian law (IHL) violations committed by its Wagner mercenaries, Russia’s de facto state actors. 

There is clear evidence that Russian state actors, such as the military, have violated IHL, and the recent buzz surrounding the International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor’s opened investigation suggests the international community will not let these abuses go entirely unexcused (though it is relevant to note the ICC is a court of individual criminal responsibility, not state responsibility).

However, the international community must also punish the IHL violations committed by Russia’s de facto state actors, the Wagner mercenaries.  Wagner, while an officially private military contractor, is, I will show below, a paramilitary group under overall Russian state control acting as a de facto unit of the Russian military. 

Were an international tribunal adjudicating such atrocities to apply Tadic’s “overall control” test, it would likely succeed in holding Moscow responsible for the Wagner group’s actions.

In recent years, Wagner has committed gross IHL violations in Ukraine and worldwide. 

Wagner is actively fighting in Ukraine after sending most of its foot soldiers there.  To boost its Ukrainian presence, the group opened its ranks to men with criminal histories, those with unpaid debts sought by Russian law enforcement, and foreigners. While the current war in Ukraine is its latest battlefield, the group participated in Russia’s proxy wars in eastern Ukraine in 2014-15, Libya, and Syria (where it attacked American-backed forces resulting in mass casualties among the mercenaries).

The group maintains an active presence in the Central African Republic (per the 2019 investigation by Novaya Gazeta, Wagner was suspected of murdering Russian journalists who came to investigate its activities there) and other African countries.  Further, Wagner’s atrocities are well documented. In 2017, an Assad army deserter was brutally murdered by Wagner members.  

BBC collected at least two eyewitness’ accounts that Wagner intentionally killed prisoners in Libya in 2019. As of March of 2022, Wagner has been accused of murdering 300 civilians in Mali and scores of civilians in the Central African Republic

Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia was able to avoid accountability for Wagner’s atrocities.

The Russian state has consistently denied any connection to the group, and no authoritative tribunal has made a formal ruling regarding attribution. In September of 2021, Putin’s spokesperson falsely claimed Russian private military companies were providing solely “consultative and security” services.

Putin falsely claimed that private Russian military companies in Syria had nothing to do with the Russian stateThese denials indicate that Russia is aware of the 1986 International Court of Justice decision, Nicaragua v. United States of America (“Nicaragua”).

Nicaragua created an exceptionally high attribution threshold. Under Nicaragua, a paramilitary unit can only be found a de facto state organ when 1) the state paid, financed, and coordinated/supervised the group’s actions, and 2) the state “specifically ‘directed or enforced’ the perpetuation” of IHL violations by the group “with respect to the specific operation in the course of which [IHL] breaches may have been committed.”  Tadic at 40.  In other words, under Nicaragua, the unit’s action could be attributed to the State only if it was completely dependent on the State.

After committing mass IHL violations in Ukraine, it should be harder for Russia to escape attribution

Things changed after Putin’s army executed and tortured Ukrainian civilians en masse in the town of Bucha, leading to the investigations of Russian war crimes.  Further, evidence of Wagner’s atrocities in Ukraine is becoming available – in May of 2022, the Ukrainian state charged Wagner fighters with the brutal murder of a Ukrainian village mayor and her family. The group committed the crime alongside Russian soldiers.

The Tadic attribution test should be used to hold Russia responsible for Wagner’s gross IHL violations.

If an international tribunal for prosecution of Russian war crimes in Ukraine is established to adjudicate, among other things, whether gross IHL violations committed by Wagner should be attributed to Russia, there are several reasons why Tadic should be applied to determine whether Russia should be held responsible. 

Russia is not entitled to escape responsibility for the HL violations committed by its mercenaries.

a) Tadic explains that “states are not allowed on the one hand to act de facto through individuals and on the other to dissociate themselves from such conduct when these individuals breach international law.”  at 48.

Attributing Wagner’s IHL violations is particularly important for this war of aggression.  To avoid application of the Geneva Conventions (GC), Russia refuses to acknowledge that this war is an international armed conflict. The state claims it never invaded Ukraine, but is conducting a “special operation.”   Russia has also made calling the war an invasion a domestic offense punishable by up to 15 years in prison.

The international community should not reward Russia by accepting this blatantly false characterization.  As Prof. Alexander Proelss of the University of Hamburg Faculty of Law explained at the May 2022 Cushing International Law conference (which this author was privileged to attend), “the aggressor is not entitled to ‘downgrade conflict’ and thus escape the requirements of the international humanitarian law.”  

b.) Under Tadic, it is easier to establish state control over an actor when the state attempts to occupy another state.

Tadic holds that a state is in overall control of an organized paramilitary group if it finances and militarily assists such a group and coordinates or helps in the general planning of the group’s military activity. Id. at 56. For the state to be held responsible, it is not necessary for it to issue specific instructions to commit IHL violations.  Id. at 56, 59.  

Where the state controlling the paramilitary group is a geographically adjacent state with territorial ambitions in the area where the conflict is taking place, and it is attempting to achieve its territorial enlargement through armed forces which it formally controls, it may be easier to meet the threshold for establishing control over a paramilitary group.  Id. at 59-60. 

c) The relationship between the Wagner group and the Russian state meets the overall control test.  Under Tadicthe degree of state control needed to attribute a group’s gross IHL violations to a state may vary depending on the factual circumstances of each case. Id. at 47-48. Tadic drew a distinction between an individual (or an unorganized group of individuals) and a paramilitary group. 

The threshold for establishing control over individuals is higher, because it would be necessary to show that the state issued specific instructions to each individual. Id. at 48-49.  Paramilitary groups during war, on the other hand, have a structure, a chain of command, a corresponding set of rules, and outward symbols of authority. 

The individuals in these groups normally do not act on their own but are subject to the authority of the group’s commander.  Id. at 49To hold a state responsible for IHL violations committed by a paramilitary group, it is sufficient to show that the group was under overall control of the state.  Id.  The Tadic distinction is correctly drawn.  When a paramilitary group is equipped, financed and organized by the state, it is reasonable to assume the group’s commanders are controlled by that state.

Its commanders ensure its fighters act per their directions, which they receive from the controlling state.  Consequently, when overall state control is shown, the state is responsible regardless of whether the state directed the specific IHL violations and even in situations when the group performs contrary to the state’s instructions.  Id. at 49-50.

d) Finally, unlike NicaraguaTadic is grounded in international precedent.  Tadic explained that the test proposed by Nicaragua is at variance with the international judicial and State precedent that held States responsible in the circumstances where a lower degree of control that that demanded by the Nicaragua test was exercised.  at 51. 

In support of this argument, Tadic cited multiple decisions which held countries responsible for the actions of paramilitary groups on the basis of overall control, without inquiring whether the countries specifically directed the groups to commit IHL violations. Id. at 51- 56.

To hold Russia accountable for Wagner’s gross IHL violations, a Tadic-based framework should be used.

The prosecution should establish that: a) Wagner is a currently existing Russia-authorized mercenary paramilitary group; b) the mercenaries committing gross IHL violations belong to Wagner; c) Russia financed, supplied, and provided training and/or medical treatment for Wagner; and d) Russia has overall control of Wagner – i.e. that Wagner is operating with Russian military forces with the Russian goal of occupying Ukraine and defeating Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF)). 

a) Wagner is a mercenary group authorized by RussiaContrary to Russia’s boldfaced denials, Wagner exists.  In 2021, the European Union imposed sanctions against some of its commanders. In Syria, its mercenaries attacked US-supported Syrian positions at Deir Ezzor in February of 2018. It fought as a de facto Russian army’s auxiliary unit during the Russia-sponsored war in eastern Ukraine in 2014-2015, Syria, Libya, and other African countries. The best proof  that Wagner’s existence is fully authorized by Russia is, that under Russian law, the group is a criminal organization.  

The Russian Constitution’s Art. 13 prohibits “existence and activities of … public organizations whose goals are …creation of paramilitary units….”  So, Russian law makes recruiting, training and financing mercenaries and serving as a mercenary in combat a felony.  Thus, if the Russian state followed its own law, Wagner would have been banned as a criminal organization with its members serving long felony prison terms. 

Quite the opposite is happening in Russia – Wagner is openly recruiting and training in Russia (see subsection c, below) and is fighting in Ukraine and elsewhere.  Considering the extreme centralization of decision-making in Russia in the hands of its strongman, the only reasonable explanation for Wagner’s thriving in Russia is that the group was created and authorized by the Russian state and Putin personally.

b) Wagner mercenaries are committing gross IHL breaches.  Its members are mercenaries as defined by the GC AP Art. 47(2).  They are recruited to and take part in the armed conflict. They are motivated to do so by the desire for private gain (they were paid around $5000 a month in Libya), are not parties to a conflict, are not members of the Russian armed forces, and have not been sent by a State that is a non-party to the conflict on official duty as members of its armed forces. 

To establish that the mercenaries committing gross IHL breaches in Ukraine belong to Wagner, the prosecution would need to present evidence of the Wagner-identifiable items found on the fighters, their confessions, and the information they post on social networks. 

Combat military medals awarded by Russia (a 2021 investigation showed its commanders were awarded Russia’s most prestigious military awards reserved for military/law enforcement),  paraphernalia such as distinctive dog tags (according to the official UAF’s intelligence directorate channela Wagner dog tag was taken off the body of a mercenary in March of 2022), and identifiable Wagner patches could offer compelling identification of Wagner individuals.

c) Russia finances, trains, and provides army-grade weaponry and medical treatment to Wagner.  To hide Wagner’s connection to the government, candidates apply for civilian jobs through shell companies and are not recruited directly.  However, Wagner members are openly training at the site next to the airborne unit’s base.  Its fighters were also evacuated and treated in Russian military hospitals after fighting in Syria.

It would be difficult to track down Russian state financing of Wagner, as it is financed through a string of shell companies connected to Mr. Prigozhin, a member of Putin’s inner circle.  Information obtained from Wagner’s records, confessions of Wagner’s fighters, and investigation of Prigozhin’s group of companies would likely help prosecutors trace Wagner’s direct financing to Russia.

The prosecution would also need to produce evidence of Wagner’s active participation in combat and use of Russian army-grade modern military equipment/weaponry to set it apart from the military and security contactors Russia claims they are. 

The internationally recognized 2008 Montreux document explains legitimate contractors can provide “armed guarding and protection of persons and objects…; maintenance and operation of weapons systems; prisoner detention; and advice to or training of local forces and security personnel.” 

The Russian-army grade heavy weaponry Wagner is using in combat is by definition not used by contractors.  The documented combat use of such equipment by Wagner operatives indicates it is a de facto Russian military unit. Wagner’s attack at Deir Ezzor using heavy weaponry indicates it is equipped with the weapons available solely to the Russian army. 

The BBC exposé on Wagner’s activities shows it commonly requests and uses such heavy weaponry.  The information BBC obtained indicated Wagner planted several types of Russian-made anti-personnel minesand its supply order included advanced weaponry such as assault rifles, night vision goggles, compact radar systems, T-72 tanks, and 120-mm mortars. 

d) Russia’s occupation of Ukraine’s territory shows it is in overall control of Wagner. The Ukrainian war made proving the second Tadic prong easier.  The Russian army’s occupation in southeastern Ukraine shows that Putin’s goal is annexation of the Donbass region of Ukraine and connecting Crimea to Russia via Donbass. 

To prove that Russia has “overall control”, prosecutors would need to demonstrate that Wagner participated in combat operations along with the Russian forces pursuing joint goals of defeating the UAF and occupying Ukraine’s territory. This would be prima facie evidence that the group and Russia have shared military objectives in Ukraine, and consequently that Russia has overall control of Wagner.

Conclusion

With the mounting evidence of Russia’s atrocities, the need for an international tribunal for prosecution of Russian war crimes became more urgent. Use of Tadic’s “overall control” test by such a tribunal would allow the international community to hold Putin’s regime responsible so it can no longer hide behind the back of its thugs-for-hire.

About the author 

LTC Alex Kostin, USAR, is a reserve judge advocate currently serving in the National Security Law Division, Office of the Judge Advocate General, U.S. Army, as a National Security Law attorney.  On his 5th active duty tour, he previously served an Integrated Disability Evaluation System (IDES) counsel, trial counsel, and as a legal assistance/administrative law attorney, both in the U.S. and overseas.  In the reserves, he served as a CJA for the IO Brigade and the Division, and in other capacities.  As a civilian, he works as a post-conviction attorney representing Washington Department of Corrections in federal and state courts.  He is bilingual (Russian is his native language) and that allowed him to use Russian sources for this post.

Disclaimers:

*The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Army, or any part of the US Government.

The views expressed by guest authors do not necessarily reflect my views or those of the Center on Law, Ethics and National Security, or Duke University.  See also here.

Remember what we like to say on Lawfire®: gather the facts, examine the law, evaluate the arguments – and then decide for yourself!

Climate activists fill golf course holes with cement to protest against water ban exemption

Aug 14, 2022

Climate activists in the south of France have filled golf course holes with cement, protesting against the exemption they receive from water bans as the country faces its most severe drought in history.

Golf greens are exempt from France’s nationwide water restrictions due to a national agreement signed in 2019.


Families appeal for more help on tenth day of Mexican mine rescue

The fate of 10 miners remains unclear as rescuers continue operations at the flooded mine in Coahuila state.

Volunteers drain water from a flooded coal mine in Sabinas, Coahuila state, Mexico where 10 miners remain trapped [Alfredo Lara/AP Photo]

Published On 14 Aug 2022

The families of 10 miners still missing after a flood at a facility in Mexico’s northern Coahuila state have appealed for more help as the rescue operation continued for the tenth day.

In a news conference on Saturday, family members expressed frustration over what they called a slow response from the government after the El Pinabete mine in Sabinas flooded on August 3, trapping the miners inside, according to local media.

KEEP READING

Blast traps Mexico miners

They spoke after an initial attempt by rescue divers on Thursday was scuttled by debris blockages and poor visibility.

“The authorities tell us to wait, that there is a long way to go,” Javier Rodríguez Palomares, the brother of miner Margarito Rodríguez Palomares, said, according to the El Pais newspaper. “What we want is help to get our relatives out, whether from here or abroad.”

Government officials have acknowledged there have been obstacles to the rescue operations, but have denied that the intensity of the response has slowed.
Relatives of miners who were trapped in the flooded coal mine in Sabinas wait for information outside the mine [Elizabeth Monroy/AP Photo]

On Friday, civil defence national coordinator Laura Velazquez said during a news conference that rescuers “have all the conditions” to resume the search, although she said divers had not reached the floor of the 600-metre (1,970 feet) deep shaft and did not know when they would be able to access the area where the miners are feared trapped.

Several hundred emergency personnel, including soldiers and military scuba divers, were taking part in the rescue efforts. A specialist military team had made several more descents of the vertical shafts of mine to remove wood and other debris blocking their way, she said. Rescuers were continuing to pump water from the mine.



There have been no signs of life from the miners since the flooding, which was believed to be caused by an accidental breach of an adjoining chamber that was filled with water. Five miners escaped in the immediate aftermath.

Some volunteers with knowledge of the mine have expressed hope that the workers could have survived in more elevated parts of the underground system that may not have flooded.

Coahuila, Mexico’s main coal-producing region, has seen a series of fatal mining incidents over the years, although there have not been any recorded incidents at the El Pinabete mine, which has only been operational since January.

The worst accident was an explosion in which 65 people were killed at the Pasta de Conchos mine in 2006.

In 2021, seven people died when they were trapped following an explosion in a mine in the Munquiz township.


SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES



A Science Fiction Writer’s Non-Utopian Hope on Climate Change

What will it take for world leaders to get ahead of climate change? Science fiction writer Kim Stanley Robinson gamed out the scenarios, and the message is both frightening and hopeful.



POLITICO illustration / Getty Images / iStock

By JENNI LAIDMAN
08/14/2022 
Jenni Laidman is a freelance writer based in Louisville, Ky.

Evidence that the world is warming is growing harder to ignore: The hottest temperatures ever were recorded in parts of Europe this summer. Wildfires are incinerating parts of the Western United States. Floods in Australia recently forced thousands to flee Sydney. And just last week in my home state of Kentucky, flash flooding washed away hundreds of homes and filled my Facebook feed with pleas like this one — “Please if anyone has seen my cousin and her family. All we know is their house is gone.”

Climate scientists say these events will grow more frequent as atmospheric carbon levels mount, and yet our political system remains sluggish at best, impervious at worst. Despite scientists’ generally optimistic reviews of this month’s Senate climate deal, we remain far behind where we need to be to forestall the dire scenarios that fill most climate science fiction. Whether it’s national governments or international organizations like the United Nations, the political response never seems to match the scale of the threat. And scientists warn that the window is closing for the kind of policy measures that could slow disaster.

What would it take for the international political system to finally prioritize halting climate change? That’s the question that renowned science fiction writer Kim Stanley Robinson tackled in his 2020 novel The Ministry for the Future. Robinson has explored climate science since at least the 1990s, but instead of focusing on technology and discovery, Robinson’s plots reach toward political and policy solutions. In a 2015 New Yorker article, Tim Kreider called Robinson “one of the most important political writers working in America today.”


Rocks and vegetation cover Highway 70 following a landslide in the Dixie Fire zone in October 2021 in Plumas County, Calif. “Every year since I wrote the book,” said Kim Stanley Robinson, the author of The Ministry for the Future, “it's as if attention to the climate change crisis has more than doubled. It's almost exponential.”


Robinson’s book contains plenty of warnings for today’s political leaders and policymakers. In Ministry, ever more extreme climate events coupled with political inaction eventually trigger violence and terrorism. A tiny United Nations agency, dubbed the “Ministry for the Future,” maneuvers adroitly in a desperate bid to get countries and institutions to take steps to save mankind.

I called Robinson to find out what he’s been thinking this summer as he’s watched the world move closer to the kind of climate catastrophes that trigger the plot of Ministry for the Future. Although Robinson recently published his first nonfiction book, The High Sierra: A Love Story, he told me that Ministry for the Future continues to monopolize his time, filling his days with a constant round of addresses, interviews — and in the ultimate fiction meets reality — an appearance at the 26th U.N. Climate Change Conference in 2021. (UN climate conferences are important to Ministry’s plot.)

“This book has transformed my life,” Robinson said. “I’m doing nothing but talking about Ministry for the Future for the last year and a half, almost two years now. It’s also terrifying. It shows to me that people are feeling a desperate need for a story like this. They’re grabbing onto this book like a piece of driftwood, and they’re drowning at the open ocean.”

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Laidman: In your opening chapter, 20 million people die in an Indian heat wave and power failure, with several thousand of them poached to death in a lake as they try to escape the heat. Will it take this kind of climate horror to jolt the world into action?

Robinson: No. When I was at COP 26, Jordanian diplomat Zeid Ra’ad Hussein, who had read Ministry, was talking about the power of stories. He said, “You don’t need to be in a plane crash to know that it would be bad to be in a plane crash.” Every year since I wrote the book — I wrote it maybe three years ago — it’s as if attention to the climate change crisis has more than doubled. It’s almost exponential.

We’re not at the point of solutions, but at every COP meeting the sense that, “Oh my gosh, we are headed into a plane crash” is intensified. We’re not doing enough. We’re not paying the poor countries enough. Rich countries are breaking promises made at earlier COPs. Disillusionment with that process is getting so intense that I fear for the COP process itself. I’ve been comparing it to the League of Nations. The League of Nations was a great idea that failed. And then we got the 1930s and World War II. The 2015 Paris Agreement was an awesome thing, like something that I would write that people would call utopian. But it happened in the real world.

Now, with Russia and the brutal Ukraine war, things are so messed up that the COP process and the Paris Agreement could turn into the League of Nations. I’m frightened for that. It’s not a done deal.

Laidman: We have an incredible capacity, it seems, to ignore the plane crash. You talk about this in the book, the pervasive belief that someone else’s disaster couldn’t happen to us, the idea that, “they must have done something wrong.”

Robinson: Michael Lewis has a great story about that in his book [The Fifth Risk: Undoing Democracy] on the federal government. A town in Oklahoma is destroyed by a tornado, the next town over, people say, “Oh, well that they’re in the tornado track, and we’re not.” So yes, we have that capacity. That brings up a good point, though. When you say that, even if 20 million people died in India, people would say, well that’s India — too many people, bad infrastructure, in the tropics. It’s almost their fault. It’s like school shootings in America. Everybody regrets it. Everybody moves on. Nothing changes.

What will make the difference is the cumulative knowledge of climate change in my own home territory. The effects didn’t kill me, but I can tell it’s going to be bad for my children. It’s as though you’ve got a creeping illness, gangrene. You aren’t dead yet, but you know that you’re sick.

Laidman: You’ve spent so much time studying financial policy in addition to all the technology you talk about with ease. I kept looking things up, sometimes to see if they were inventions, like Javon’s paradox, Mondragon, the Gini coefficient. And they were all real.

Robinson: The only thing an English major is trained to do is to read texts and try to generate some new ones. I’m very used to reading scientific papers and science journalism. That’s my main reading. But it was at least 30 years ago when someone said, “Gee, it’s too bad you don’t know anything about economics.” And I was irritated. Then I thought, well, actually I don’t know anything about economics. So, these last 30 years I have been doing a kind of a self-guided study with a lot of help from economists, in political economy in particular. When you’re talking about economics, you need to always think about the political economy that created it in the first place. Then it’s obvious that capitalism is not natural. It’s not actually adequate to the situation. It creates inequality. It wrecks the biosphere. We need post-capitalism. I began thinking that in the early 1990s. But when you go hunting for what comes after capitalism, you find nothing. It’s incredible.

As a science fiction writer, I’ve been frustrated by the lack of help from theorists to build future societies in my novels. I’ve had to cobble it together from people who have done that work, but they’re often from the past. My retreat to Keynesianism in Ministry isn’t post capitalism, it’s going back to an earlier moment of capitalism where government was still the driving force. To make Ministry look plausible — because we are stuck in the system that we’re in with a gigantic network of laws and practices — I needed something that we’ve already done before that might work.

Laidman: In your book, India not only suffers the greatest catastrophe, it then becomes the model for carbon reform. What made you pick India?

Robinson: I had to ponder that hard when writing it. In some ways, it’s a dodge. Most of the readers of this book are in America or in the English-speaking world, although, it’s getting read in India too, for sure. But what I mean is, if the good things happen in a big country on the other side of the world, you’re more likely to believe them because you don’t know the details of that country as well as your own country. If I were to set it in our own country, at every point you’d be going, well, that wouldn’t happen. That’s impossible. So, on the one hand, it’s a utopian literary dodge to put the change elsewhere so you can believe in it. And that’s not good.



Homeless people sleep in the shade of a bridge on a scorching summer day in New Delhi. In the opening chapter of The Ministry for the Future, 20 million people in India die in a heat wave and power failure, with several thousand of them poached to death in a lake as they try to escape the heat.


But on the other hand, I was also thinking that India is in a terrible position when it comes to getting hammered by these heat waves. It’s likely to happen there, although it could also happen in the American Southeast. I chose India because it’s the biggest democracy. It’s one of every eight people on Earth or even more. It’s a mess like any other democracy, but it has the potential to be a leader. Once I put the disaster there in Chapter 1, I made a promise to myself, to my mental India, that I would stick with India. It wouldn’t just be the place that the disaster happened and then everybody else solved the problem. I had to read a lot and talk to Indian acquaintances — I’ve hardly ever been there — and think about what could happen there, what they’re doing already that is cutting edge. In agriculture and governance, they have some incredible things going on. So, it was a matter of keeping faith with India after inflicting such a horrible imaginary disaster on them.

Laidman: Of course part of making change happen in India was making the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress Party vanish. Right-wing populist movements, including the presidency of Donald Trump, have been a major factor in slowing or reversing political action on climate change.

Robinson: It looked unrealistic when I wrote the book. It was really a shot in the dark. But there was the recent vote in Colombia with [leftist Colombian President Gustavo] Petro and [his running mate Francia] Márquez winning [against a Trump-like opponent]. And then if [former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva] wins in Brazil and there’s an orderly, or at least a successful, transition away from [President Jair] Bolsonaro back to Lula. Then in India, [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi is one of these classic nationalist Trumpish figures. He’s really beating the crap out of all the ethnic groups, except for his Hindu supporters. The BJP could go down. It’s not impossible.

Laidman: And we have had a bit of good news lately, with the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction bill that includes a record $360 billion in new climate spending.

Robinson: I’m really happy to see this new legislation. It’s not everything we need, but that’s OK. There will be more like it to come. For now, it’s very encouraging.

Laidman: I’m curious about the role of terrorism in your story. After the Indian heat wave, there’s a rise in terrorism. There are worldwide assassinations of anyone profiting from carbon emissions. Someone slaughters cattle all over the world. Airplanes crash to Earth in attacks. Even the Ministry for the Future had a black-ops wing. Is terrorism what it will take?

Robinson: No. I’m very nervous about that strand of the book. I did it because I think if we don’t deal with climate change, those things will happen. People are going be angry if their village is destroyed. If their whole family dies and they survive it, they’re going to be so angry that they won’t be worried about justice. They’ll be worried about revenge, and we will see violence increasing. One thing that Ministry does not do that it should have done better is make a strong distinction between sabotage and murder. So, in the book, Children of Kali [a terrorist group named for the Hindu goddess of war and destruction], they’re murdering people. I think there’s no situation in which that’s justified. It always blows back in your face. And the most vicious thugs take over power.

On the other hand, the destruction of property, it shouldn’t even be called terrorism. It’s resistance. It’s like the recent story about people letting the air out of SUV tires in big urban centers with a note on the windshield saying, “Sorry, it isn’t personal. It’s just your car sucks.” Destruction of property is a different issue morally. My novel does not make those distinctions clearly. It’s just as messy as history itself.

What the Ministry’s black wing was doing, I obscured that, as you no doubt noticed. You can’t be sure what they did and what they didn’t do. Every reader is put in the same position as Mary [Murphy, the head of the Ministry for the Future]. What would be justified? What would I authorize doing personally before I got too uncomfortable? The reader is put on the spot.

Laidman: I’m far from the first person to note how optimistic this book is. It’s all about solutions. It’s not always pleasant how your world gets there, but it gets there. Are you really that optimistic?

Robinson: Well, that’s a good question. The basic answer is, yes, if you think of optimism as pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will. It’s very important to contextualize optimism, or else you’d get into what’s cruel optimism, which is, “Everything’s going to be OK, so stop worrying. That’s cruel optimism because it’s not going be OK without immense effort. Optimism of the will means you beat people with the reminder that we could still get to a good outcome, and we’re not doing it. But we could. And since we could, we should. This is the basic optimism-of-the-will argument. The scientists are telling us that if we decarbonize fast and if we even invent some carbon drawdown methods and put them to use, and pay for them, we could dodge the mass extinction event. The window for that is closing.

One thing people respond to in this book is the idea that we could get to a good spot even without a good plan, even with a lot of fighting. Even if it’s a vicious fight, we could still get to a good outcome if the majority has its way. And if the scientists are attended to. And if we pay ourselves to do the right work. So these are big ifs, right? We’re in vicious battle. And part of it is convincing people.

The future is going to be messy, and there will be defeats, and there’s going to be a constant stream of people on social media going, “Oh my God! We’re lost! We’re doomed!” And even saying it before there’s loss, “Oh my gosh, we’re doomed. We’ve lost.” Like we’re in the middle of a giant race and one of the racers just sits on the ground and starts crying and saying, “Woe was me.” It’s not appropriate.

 The race is still on.


People bathe in the river Ganges to cool themselves off as northern Indian continues to reel under intense heat wave in June 2022. Kim Stanley Robinson says he is still optimistic, “if you you think of optimism as pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.”

A book like mine is trying to give people the notion that the race is still on. You’ve got to run like crazy until it’s over, and since it’s never over, you’ve got to run like crazy through the whole rest of the century. Younger readers, they’re going to be alive in the year 2070, which I find amazing because I’m not. So, they’re reading and they’re thinking, this is my whole life. They need a story that tells them that a life of continuous struggle could get them to a better place.

And it’s true, but it’s only provisionally true. It could get to a good place, but only if all these good things happen by us doing them.

The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson review – how to solve the climate crisis


An international taskforce tackles global heating in this chilling yet hopeful vision of how the next few decades might unfold


Blue sky thinking … planes spray sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere
 in The Ministry for the Future. Photograph: AgStock Images, Inc/Alamy

Steven Poole
THE GUARDIAN
Fri 20 Nov 2020

It opens like a slow-motion disaster movie. In the near future, a heatwave of unsurvivable “wet-bulb” temperatures (factoring in humidity) in a small Indian town kills nearly all its inhabitants in a week. The Indian government sends up planes to spray sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere to mimic the dimming effect of major volcanic eruptions. This does not, naturally, meet with unalloyed approval around the world.

A new international climate-crisis body has been “charged with defending all living creatures present and future who cannot speak for themselves”, and is quickly dubbed the Ministry for the Future. It is led by our protagonist, Mary Murphy, former foreign minister of Ireland. Her outfit may or may not also have a black ops wing, but a shadowy terrorist network called the “Children of Kali” has no white ops wing: it uses drone swarms to crash passenger jets and container ships in deadly protest at continuing carbon emissions.

Meanwhile, scientists at the poles are trying to pump water out from under the ice caps to prevent them from sliding into the ocean and raising sea levels catastrophically. Kim Stanley Robinson, who wrote the classic Red Mars trilogy of novels about geoengineering the red planet to be habitable by humans, now offers a story about whether we can geoengineer Earth back into Earth.

Within these pages there is much hard science, of atmospheric and oceanic physics, usually helpfully explained by a passing expert; but also speculative military strategy – the invention of “pebble mob” missiles, which converge on a target speedily from all directions, renders almost all military hardware redundant – plenty of economic history and much comforting detail about the grey civility of Switzerland in winter.

Robinson shows that an ambitious systems novel about global heating must in fact be an ambitious systems novel about modern civilisation too, because everything is so interdependent. Luckily, when he opens one of his discursive interludes with the claim “Taxes are interesting”, he makes good on it within two pages. There is no shortage of sardonic humour here, a cosmopolitan range of sympathies, and a steely, visionary optimism.

Dark comic relief comes from fragmentary dialogues between unnamed speakers. “Have you heard,” one asks, “that the warming of the oceans means that the amount of omega-3 fatty acids in fish and thus available for human consumption may drop by as much as sixty percent? And that these fatty acids are crucial to signal transduction in the brain, so it’s possible that our collective intelligence is now rapidly dropping because of an ocean-warming-caused diminishment in brain power?” The other replies: “That would explain a lot.” Indeed it would.

Poland investigating large fish die-off in river; officials removed


Soldiers and firefighters remove dead fish from the Oder River near Slubice, Poland, on Friday
.
 Photo by Lech Muszynski/EPA-EFE

Aug. 13 (UPI) -- Local Polish officials have called for an investigation into a large fish die-off along the Oder River that flows through the country, Germany and the Czech Republic.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said 150 troops have been placed along the 522-mile stretch of the river to help clean up the tons of fish dying off from what some suspect is caused by chemical waste dumped into the waterway.

Morawiecki said he sacked the head of the Polish Waters Co., Przemysław Daca, and the head of the General Environmental Inspectorate, Michał Mistrzak, because of the disaster.

"It is likely that enormous amounts of chemical waste have been dumped into the river," Morawiecki said, according to Polskie Radio. "The problem is enormous. The wave of pollution runs from Wrocław to Szczecin. Those are hundreds of kilometers of river. The pollution is gigantic."

While authorities are still investigating the source of the spill, local media reported that elevated levels of mercury were detected in German water samples from the region. Scientists are also factoring in climate change in the die-off.

Environmental groups have accused the Polish government of moving too slowly to contain the death of fish, which local fishermen first reported in late July


"An environmental catastrophe is looming," German Environment Minister Steffi Lemke said, according to The Washington Post. "All sides are working flat out to find the reasons for this mass [killing of fish] and minimize potential further damage."

SEE