China activists sound alarm over claims Twitter endangers users

Peiter Zatko’s allegations raise questions about big tech’s responsibility towards users in authoritarian countries.

Twitter whistleblower Peiter Zatko has claimed that the social media giant has endangered users in China [Dado Ruvic/Reuters]

By John Power
Published On 26 Aug 2022

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia – Twitter whistleblower Peiter Zatko’s claims that the social media giant has endangered users in China have raised questions about big tech’s responsibility to protect dissidents from state persecution.

Zatko, Twitter’s former head of security, has alleged that the social media platform became “dependent” on revenue from Chinese entities, making them potentially privy to information that could allow them to identify and glean sensitive information on users in China.

Twitter, like Facebook and Google, is banned in mainland China, where open dissent against the ruling Communist Party carries the risk of severe punishment. Chinese users can only access the platform through an encrypted connection known as a virtual private network (VPN), the use of which is also prohibited.

“Twitter executives knew that accepting Chinese money risked endangering users in China (where employing VPNs or other circumvention technologies to access the platform is prohibited) and elsewhere,” Zatko said in his disclosure, which was filed last month with several US government agencies, including the Department of Justice, and made public this week by The Washington Post and CNN.

“Twitter executives understood this constituted a major ethical ‘compromise.’ Mr. Zatko was told that Twitter was too dependent upon the revenue stream at this point to do anything other than attempt to increase it.”

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Peiter Zatko, Twitter’s former head of security, has accused the social media giant of lax security practices and misleading regulators 

[File: Parker Thompson/Courtesy of Peiter Zatko via AP]

Zatko’s allegations have reverberated among Chinese dissidents and human rights activists, raising calls for Twitter to clarify whether it has put China-based users at risk.

On Wednesday, Renee Xia, director of Washington, DC-based Chinese Human Rights Defenders, asked if the tech giant bore responsibility for the prosecution of a number of Chinese Twitter users, including Beijing activist Quan Shixin, who was indicted in 2020 for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble”, a catch-all charge commonly used to punish dissent.

“Is Congress looking into this?” Xia said in a tweet.

Yaqiu Wang, a senior researcher on China at Human Rights Watch, said the allegations were especially concerning given the history of Chinese authorities cracking down on anonymous users of the platform.

“In recent years, the Chinese authorities have cracked down on Chinese Twitter users; many of them used anonymous accounts,” Wang told Al Jazeera.

“It is unclear how authorities were able to identify the persons behind these accounts. Twitter has been a refuge of sorts for those who can’t bear the censorship on China’s social media. It has played an essential role in sustaining the ever-increasingly repressed community of government critics.”

Florian Schneider, a senior lecturer on the politics of modern China at Leiden University Institute for Area Studies in the Netherlands, said the possibility that Twitter may not be secure for Chinese users would have a chilling effect on public discussion, whether or not the allegations turn out to be true.

“Dissidents and their families would be particularly at risk, but casual Twitter users could also be affected,” Schneider told Al Jazeera.

“This includes PRC citizens who work or study abroad, but also users within China who anonymously participate in Twitter discussions through virtual private networks that allow them to ‘jump’ the Great Firewall. Any such users are at risk. The Chinese authorities frequently hold citizens accountable for their social media behaviour, and this has included making examples of casual internet users who post on sensitive subjects.”

‘Inconsistencies and inaccuracies’

Zatko’s disclosure, which also raised concerns about undue foreign influence from Russia, India and Nigeria as well as lax security and noncompliance with regulatory directives, did not specify how Twitter’s practices allegedly risk exposing users’ identities and personal information.

Radim Dragomaca, a spokesperson for Whistle Blower Aid, which is representing Zatko, declined to elaborate on the allegations, citing “legal restrictions that only allow him to make lawful disclosures to the relevant authorities, so anything not already written in the disclosure cannot be added to or even analysed by him for the media”.

“The only way to do that would be if he were called to do so by those legal authorities, and it would be directly to them,” Dragomaca told Al Jazeera.

Twitter did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

In statements to other media, the tech giant has described Zatko’s claims as “riddled with inconsistencies and inaccuracies and lacks important context,” and accused the ex-cybersecurity chief of “opportunistically seeking to inflict harm on Twitter, its customers, and its shareholders”. Twitter has also said that Zatko was fired for poor performance and leadership.

China’s embassy in Washington, DC, did not respond to a request for comment.

Some analysts have suggested the allegations could relate to Twitter’s advertising model.

Zach Edwards, a US-based independent cybersecurity researcher, speculated that users could be at risk through Custom Audiences, a tool that allows advertisers on the platform to review information about their target audiences.

In a series of tweets on Wednesday, Edwards suggested Chinese entities could potentially use the service to identify users if they had access to their email addresses or Android IDs.

When contacted by Al Jazeera, Edwards said he did not have time to comment on short notice, but he stood behind his comments online.

Other cybersecurity experts expressed scepticism that China would want or need to rely on Twitter to target its critics.

Lokman Tsui, a research fellow with the Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto, said Twitter had limited data on its users in China due to the use of VPNs and few commercial incentives to gather data as it is unable to sell ads in the country due to being banned.

“Third, and this is more of a pragmatic reason, the Chinese authorities don’t need to go to Twitter,” Tsui, who previously worked at Twitter but stressed he was speaking in a personal capacity, told Al Jazeera.

“There are other ways, much easier ways for them to find out who is accessing illegal content or whatever. Think of telcos, internet service providers, etc.”

“That’s not to say there’s no risk to doing business with China,” Tsui added. “Of course there is, but this specific claim seems overblown to me.”

US Congressman Bennie Thompson, who chairs the House Committee on Homeland Security, has called on Twitter to answer to the allegations against it

 [File: Joshua Roberts/Reuters]

Clearer details about Twitter’s operations in China could emerge in due course.

Multiple US agencies, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Trade Commission and the Justice Department, are expected to investigate Zatko’s claims.

On Thursday, the chairs of the US House Committee on Homeland Security called on Twitter Chief Executive Parag Agrawal to address the “disturbing” allegations surrounding the social media platform, including the possibility the service has been used to target critics of authoritarian governments.

“If substantiated, the whistleblower allegations demonstrate a pattern of willful disregard for the personal data of Twitter users and the integrity of the platform,” Democratic members Bennie Thompson and Yvette Clarke said in a letter to the company.

Wang, the Human Rights Watch researcher, said Twitter should be more transparent about its operations in China.

“Twitter should make public any Chinese government inquiries or requests concerning user information,” she said.

“Twitter has taken actions against disinformation campaigns that were linked to the Chinese government, but often did so only after it was contacted by disinformation research bodies or victims of the disinformation campaigns. It should be more transparent about such campaigns and take proactive actions to protect China-based users and Chinese-language users.”

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

Fukushima debris removal delayed by another year

The work to remove radioactive debris from the Fukushima plant could 

now start as late as March 2024. PHOTO: REUTERS

TOKYO (AFP) - Work to remove nuclear debris from the devastated Fukushima power station in Japan has been delayed again to ensure the safety of the multi-decade project, according to plant operator Tepco.

Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco) had planned to begin extracting radioactive debris from one of the reactors this year - already later than the original 2021 start date.

But the company said Thursday (Aug 25) it needed an "additional preparation period" of up to 18 months, meaning the work could now start as late as March 2024.

Tepco said in a statement that this was necessary "to improve the safety and ensure the success" of surveying inside the reactors and retrieving the debris.

"The timeframe has been adjusted, so that the work will commence in the latter half of fiscal 2023", which ends March 2024, it said.

Engineers are fine-tuning a robotic arm specially designed for the work, including adjusting its speed and precision, Tepco said.

A deadly tsunami on March 11, 2011 caused a meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in north-eastern Japan, the world's worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl.

Tepco, the government and a coalition of engineering firms are working to decommission the damaged reactors in a project that is estimated to take as long as 40 years.

Robot issue delays fuel removal from Fukushima nuclear plant

CGTN

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Okuma town, Fukushima prefecture, north of Tokyo, February 13, 2021. /AP

The operator of the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant said Thursday it is further postponing the start of the removal of highly radioactive melted fuel from its damaged reactors because of delays in the development of a remote-controlled robotic arm.

Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) had originally planned to begin removing melted fuel from the Unit 2 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi plant last year, 10 years after the disaster triggered by a massive earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011.

That plan was postponed until later this year, and now will be delayed further until about autumn next year because of additional work needed to improve the performance of the robotic arm, TEPCO said.

The giant arm, jointly developed by Veolia Nuclear Solutions of Britain and Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, has been transported to Japan and is being adjusted at a testing facility south of the Fukushima plant.

The delay won't affect the overall decommissioning at the plant, which is expected to take 30 to 40 years, TEPCO said. Experts have said the completion target is too optimistic.

During the accident, an estimated 880 tons (about 72.6 tonnes) of highly radioactive nuclear fuel in the three damaged reactors melted and fell to the bottom of their primary containment vessels, where it hardened, most likely mixed with broken parts of the reactor and the concrete foundation. Its removal is by far the toughest challenge of the decommissioning process.

TEPCO has made progress in assessing the condition of the fuel in the reactors in recent years by sending remote-controlled robots inside the primary containment vessels. But data and images provided by the probes are still partial, and experts say it's too early to imagine when or how the cleanup will end.

The continuing need to cool the fuel remaining in the reactors has resulted in massive amounts of treated but still radioactive used cooling water that is being stored in about 1,000 tanks on the grounds of the plant.

The government has announced a plan to start releasing the stored water into the sea after further treatment and dilution in the spring of 2023, a plan that has been fiercely opposed by local residents, the fishing community and neighboring countries.

Source(s): AP

Eunice Foote, hidden climate science pioneer

BY AMARA HUDDLESTON 

 REVIEWED BY ANNARITA MARIOTTI
PUBLISHED JULY 17, 2019


HIGHLIGHTS

American Eunice Foote was an amateur scientist from the mid-1800s whose experiments foreshadowed the discovery of Earth's greenhouse effect.

 
Her experiments comparing the temperature within cylinders filled with different gases revealed the ability of water vapor and carbonic acid gas (carbon dioxide) to raise temperature.

The studies inspired her to hypothesize that Earth would have been much warmer in the past if its carbon dioxide levels were higher.

 
Foote did not present her own work at an 1856 meeting American Association for the Advancement of Science, relying on a male colleague to read her paper for her.


Born on July 17, 1819, Eunice Newton Foote was an amateur scientist and a women's rights campaigner who was friends with American suffragist Elizabeth Cady Stanton. Foote's experiments with atmospheric gases and her insights about past climate were overlooked for more than a century. Drawing by Carlyn Iverson, NOAA Climate.gov.

Women have been making significant contributions to science for centuries and receiving little to no credit for their work. Rosalind Franklin captured the X-ray images of the DNA molecule that allowed James Watson and Francis Crick to decipher its structure, but she received scant recognition for her role. [Correction, 09/17/19: The article previously stated that Franklin did not share in Watson and Crick's Nobel prize for the discovery. However, Franklin died before the scientists were nominated.)

African-American women at NASA—Katherine Johnson, Dorothy Vaughan, and Mary Jackson (along with the countless other women mathematicians)—helped engineer the spacecraft and solved the equations that guided the launch of astronaut John Glenn into orbit in 1962. But their contributions to America’s space program were barely recognized for half a century until their story became a best-selling book and blockbuster film in 2016.

That kind of recognition isn’t the case for many women scientists who were never given authorship on papers and whose work has been forgotten. One woman who almost fell into that category was American Eunice Newton Foote, an early female climate science pioneer whose name you’ve most likely never heard.

A scan of Foote’s paper "Circumstances affecting the heat of the Sun's rays " from the American Journal of Science (1857).

Foote’s experiments in the 1850s demonstrated the ability of atmospheric water vapor and carbon dioxide to affect solar heating, foreshadowing John Tyndall’s later experiments that described the workings of Earth’s greenhouse effect. Despite her remarkable insight into the influence that higher carbon dioxide levels in the past would have had on Earth’s temperature, Foote went unnoticed in the history of climate science until recently.
“An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature”

Foote’s story takes place about a century before the women mentioned above. Foote was an amateur scientist—known as a natural philosopher in that era—who in the 1850s conducted some of the first experiments exploring the influence of different atmospheric gases on the “heat of the sun’s rays.”

In Foote’s time, geologists were discovering the world’s climate and vegetation had once been radically different. In the periods when coal deposits were forming in swampy seas, geologists concluded that the atmosphere had once had much higher levels of carbon dioxide. Foote correctly speculated that this would have made Earth much warmer. Imagined landscape of a Carboniferous Period swamp from Introduction to Botany (1901), by William Chase Stevens. Image provided by the Internet Archive of Books.

Using glass cylinders, each encasing a mercury thermometer, Foote found that the heating effect of the Sun was greater in moist air than dry air, and that it was highest of all in a cylinder containing carbon dioxide. She wrote, “The receiver containing this gas became itself much heated—very sensibly more so than the other—and on being removed [from the Sun], it was many times as long in cooling.”

Her experimental design wasn’t sophisticated enough to reveal how these atmospheric characteristics were able to influence solar heating. Her experiments didn’t demonstrate that water vapor and greenhouse gases raise Earth’s temperature not by absorbing incoming sunlight, but by absorbing heat radiated by the surface. They nevertheless appear to have led Foote to a remarkable insight about carbon dioxide and Earth’s past climate:


An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature; and if as some suppose, at one period of its history the air had mixed with it a larger proportion than at present, an increased temperature... must have necessarily resulted (Foote, 1856).
The sphere of woman

Her work was presented on August 23, 1856, at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)—not by her, but by a male colleague, the eminent Joseph Henry. Neither Foote’s paper, nor Henry’s presentation of it, were included in the conference proceedings, however.

A short page and a half paper was published in the American Journal of Science and Arts in November 1856, and a summary of her work was published in the 1857 volume of Annual of Scientific Discovery by David A. Wells. Reporting on the annual meeting, Wells wrote:


Prof. Henry then read a paper by Mrs. Eunice Foote, prefacing it with a few words, to the effect that science was of no country and of no sex. The sphere of woman embraces not only the beautiful and the useful, but the true (p.159).

Foote’s work showed that carbon dioxide and water vapor modulated solar heating, and she presented it three years before John Tyndall, whose more sophisticated experiments demonstrated conclusively that Earth’s greenhouse effect comes from water vapor and other gases like carbon dioxide that absorb and emit thermal infrared energy, not visible sunlight. In his publication, Tyndall gave credit to Mathias Pouillet for his work on the passage of solar radiation through the atmosphere, but didn’t mention Foote (Tyndall 1859). Whether he knew of her work or thought it wasn’t relevant isn’t known.
A woman’s right to vote...and do science

Eunice Foote’s place in the scientific community, or lack thereof, weaves into the broader story of women’s rights. Seven years before her paper, Foote was present at the first Woman’s Rights Convention in Seneca Falls, New York, on July 19-20, 1848. This convention is where the Declaration of Sentiments was presented, the document written by Elizabeth Cady Stanton, that demanded equality with men in social status and legal rights, including the right to vote. Eunice Foote’s name is fifth on the list of signatures on the document. (Her husband, Elisha Foote, also signed.)

Copy of the signature page of the Declaration of Sentiments, bearing Eunice Foote’s signature. Image courtesy U.S. Library of Congress.

Science was one of those domains where women were struggling to be heard, and Foote is among the pioneers whose work paved the way toward acceptance. A column in the September 1856 issue of Scientific American, titled “Scientific Ladies—Experiments with Condensed Gases,” began, “Some have not only entertained, but expressed the mean idea, that women do not possess the strength of mind necessary for scientific investigation.” The writer went on to describe Foote’s experiments as evidence to the contrary, concluding:


The columns of the Scientific American have been oftentimes graced with articles on scientific subjects, by ladies, which would do honor to men of the highest scientific reputation; and the experiments of Mrs. Foot afford abundant evidence of the ability of woman to investigate any subject with originality and precision.

Much has changed since the times of Eunice Foote, but there is still work to be done to acknowledge the past contributions of women scientists and to ensure that the efforts of women scientists today and in the future do not go unseen. Annarita Mariotti of NOAA’s Climate Program Office is among those making sure that Foote’s experiments and ideas are folded into the history of climate science.

The journal Nature recently published a letter by Mariotti on the 200th anniversary of Foote’s birth on July 17, helping ensure that her legacy will be preserved in the scientific literature. “I found Foote's story inspiring and very relevant in today's world,” Mariotti explains.

“It is a reminder of the struggle that women have gone through to emerge in science and society. Her story is also a reminder that basic elements of climate science, like the warming potential of carbon dioxide, were already being demonstrated over 150 years ago.”

“We owe Foote a tribute on her 200th birthday anniversary,” Mariotti says, “both as a woman and scientist.”

 
References

Foote, Eunice, 1856. Circumstances affecting the heat of the Sun’s rays: Art. XXXI, The American Journal of Science and Arts, 2nd Series, v. XXII/no. LXVI, November 1856, p. 382-383.https://ia800802.us.archive.org/4/items/mobot31753002152491/mobot31753002152491.pdf

Jackson, Roland. (2019). Eunice Foote, John Tyndall and a question of priority. Notes and Records: The Royal Society Journal of the History of Science, 0(0), 20180066. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsnr.2018.0066

Mariotti, Annarita. 2019. Celebrate a female pioneer. Nature Correspondence, v.571, p.174. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02117-2

Sorenson, R.P., 2011. Eunice Foote’s pioneering research on CO2 and climate warming: Search and Discovery Article # 70092 (2011), 5 p. http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2011/70092sorenson/ndx_sorenson.pdf.

Tyndall, John, 1859. Note on the transmission of heat through gaseous bodies: Proceedings Royal Society of London, v. 10, p. 37-39.

Wells, David A., ed., 1857. Heat of the Sun’s Rays (p. 159–160), in Annual of scientific discovery: or, year-book of facts in science and art, for 1857. Gould and Lincoln, Boston, 406 p.

AUSTRALIA
Former High Court justice Virginia Bell to lead inquiry into Morrison’s secret appointments

By Lisa Visentin
August 26, 2022

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced that former High Court justice Virginia Bell will lead the inquiry into Scott Morrison’s secret appointments to five departments in 2020 and 2021.

She will report her findings by November 25.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he would “find it extraordinary if anyone refused to talk to a former High Court judge”. CREDIT:ALEX ELLINGHAUSEN

Albanese said the terms of reference had been agreed by the cabinet.

“It’s very clear when we received the advice from the solicitor-general, who said, to quote, “the principles of responsible government are fundamentally undermined by the actions of the former government”, that we need to have a quick and appropriate inquiry which is not about the politics but about how this happened, why it happened, who knew about it,” he said.

“We need to have transparency in the process because our system of parliamentary democracy relies upon conventions, relies upon the Westminster system of checks and balances.”

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Prime ministerial staff face calls to explain what they knew about Morrison’s secret ministries

In advice released on Tuesday, Solicitor-General Stephen Donaghue found Morrison had been legally appointed to the industry, science, energy and resources portfolio in 2021, but was highly critical of the lack of transparency and recommended the government fix “deficient” disclosure practices.

Morrison said at the time he would take part in “any genuine process” that attempted to learn the lessons of the coronavirus pandemic.

Albanese said on Friday the inquiry would examine the implications of Morrison’s secret appointments for “the functioning of departments, government business enterprises and statutory bodies, and for accountability and public confidence in our system of government”.

“The terms of reference also require the inquiry to examine and report on practices and processes applying to ministerial appointments, including the public disclosure of these appointments,” he said.

“The inquiry will make recommendations to the government on any changes which could provide greater transparency and accountability to ensure that this can never happen again, and to ensure that we have a system of government in this country that is transparent, where there are checks and balances, and where there is accountability.”

Asked whether the inquiry would have the power to compel Morrison to give evidence, Albanese said he would “find it extraordinary if anyone refused to talk to a former High Court judge”.

“There will be the opportunity for public submissions and Virginia Bell will ask to speak to people who were involved or who had knowledge at the time,” he said.

“We chose not to go down the road of a royal commission. We think this gets the balance right.”

Albanese said members of the public service would be required to give evidence, but added “I don’t think it will require compulsion”.

“But if it was the case that Virginia Bell felt like she was not getting the co-operation that was required, then I’m certain that other measures could be considered.”

Albanese said the reporting date of November 25 was chosen because it preceded a sitting week – the final sitting week of the year – allowing for any legislative changes recommended by Bell to be considered by parliament that week.

Long Covid costs Australia millions of working days

Australia is facing serious labour market constraints after its borders 

were closed to international arrivals. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

SYDNEY (AFP) - Long Covid has already cost the Australian economy three million working days this year, according to a government analysis seen by AFP Friday (Aug 26), significantly worsening the country's acute labour shortages.

The treasury report found that lingering effects of the coronavirus have been keeping some 31,000 Australians away from work every day.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Friday that Australia's "labour market has been absolutely smashed by Covid, and Long Covid increasingly".

"The thousands of workdays the economy is losing to Long Covid is just one part of a complex picture, and gives a sense of what we are all up against," he said.

The treasury analysis defined Long Covid as someone experiencing symptoms four weeks or more after becoming infected.

This mirrors how Long Covid is characterised by the US Centres for Disease Control (CDC), which lists a wide variety of respiratory, heart, digestive and even neurological symptoms.

These include fatigue, heart palpitations, lightheadedness, stomach pain and difficulty concentrating - known as "brain fog".

A comprehensive study published in the Lancet this month found that one in eight people who get Covid-19 develop at least one Long Covid symptom.

The findings of the Australian treasury analysis were in line with this study - with 12 per cent of Covid-related absenteeism attributed to Long Covid.

Australia is facing serious labour market constraints after its borders were closed to international arrivals for nearly two years during the pandemic.

The nation is experiencing the second-worst labour market shortage of any developed country, trailing only Canada, according to the OECD.

This and other issues - including years of stagnant wage growth - will be the subject of a "jobs summit" the new Labor government plans to hold next week.

Mr Chalmers said challenges with skills shortages, wages and flatlining productivity would all be "front and centre at the summit".

Statement in Response to the Supreme Court Decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization

MENLO PARK, Calif.—Statement of Larry Kramer, President of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and former Dean of Stanford Law School, in response to the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

August 25, 2022 by Hewlett Foundation Leave a Comment

The Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization is an unheard of stripping away of fundamental freedoms that have been guaranteed to the American people. This decision by our highest court is out of step with the American public and marks a huge step backward in our country’s history, not only overturning precedent to limit our rights, but putting women and families’ well-being on the line.

The ruling makes it sadly clear that presidents who don’t care about the law can appoint justices who don’t care about the law either, turning the Supreme Court into nothing more than another partisan organ following the whims and preferences of its members. Juxtaposed against yesterday’s likewise appalling decision on gun control, the Court has with blinding swiftness reached a new historical low.

With the Court returning decisions about the legality of abortion to the states, we are stepping into a new era where abortion will be outlawed or severely restricted in half of the country, and extremist lawmakers will feel emboldened to take away other essential health care – such as contraception and fertility treatments – that has enabled women and their partners to pursue their own life aspirations and paved the way for economic prosperity in our communities. The impact of the Court’s decision will be local, falling most heavily on women and households whose access to care will depend on the state in which they live, creating a national map that resembles nothing so much as a patchwork quilt built around unfair inequities.

The Justices have, with the stroke of a pen, undone a half century of precedent and practice, but their decision won’t end the need for abortion care for women, nor change the beliefs and aspirations of the American people. An overwhelming majority of Americans support abortion rights and agree that every woman must have access to the care she needs. It’s time for that majority to take a stand, and work together across divides, to protect what we fundamentally believe, compassionately putting our families’ well-being at the center.

At Hewlett, we are ready to do so. Together with our partners and grantees, we’ll increase our efforts to meet the urgency of this moment, taking the fight to each and every state where the battle must be fought, without losing sight of the future we want for our children – a future of full and equal rights and opportunities.

—

Previously Published on hewlett.org

Ukraine and Russia: A Dangerous Tale of Two Speeches

by Ted Snider Posted onAugust 26, 2022

ANTIWAR.COM

On August 22, in response to the question, "Under what conditions is Russia ready to resort to the use of nuclear weapons," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov cited the "Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence.” He said that Russia "hypothetically" could allow the use of nuclear weapons if there is "aggression using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened." He then translated that policy: "In other words, the use of nuclear weapons by Russia is possible only in response to an attack – for self-defense in emergency circumstances."

The very next day, speaking at the second Crimea Platform, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that “Ukraine is strong enough and powerful enough to see a perspective for Ukrainian Crimea. . . . We need to win the fight against Russian aggression. Therefore, we need to free Crimea from occupation." He added that "We will return Crimea by any means that we consider correct, without consulting with other countries." A day later, in his Independence Day speech, Zelensky again said, "Crimea is Ukraine. And we will return it. Whatever the path may be."

And that’s the problem.

Russia could hypothetically use nuclear weapons if "the very existence of the state is threatened." Zelensky has promised to "free Crimea" from Russia. But, from the Russian perspective – the only one that matters when making the decision about dropping the bomb – Crimea is Russia and threatening to take Crimea is threatening the very existence of the state. The confluence of these two nearly simultaneous statements reveals the danger of the current crisis.

Not only to Putin, but to any Russian leader, as well as to the majority of Russians and Crimeans, Crimea is Russian territory. No Russian leader could agree to surrender Crimea without complete military defeat, meeting Ryabkov’s formulation of threatening the very existence of the state. The view that Crimea is part of the Russian state is held across the Russian political spectrum. Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, says that "Even opposition leader Alexei Navalny has only spoken of the possibility of a new referendum there to confirm the inhabitants’ desire to join Russia."

Zelensky’s words are made more dangerous by U.S. permissiveness. The Biden administration seemed to send a message of approval just days before Zelensky’s speech at the Crimea Platform. The US says that when it provided long range missile systems to Ukraine, it received assurances that they would not be used to strike inside Russian territory. But the US does not recognize Crimea as Russian territory, and on August 17, Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said that "If we are talking today about the de-occupation of temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine where the enemy is, then, correspondingly, we have no such restrictions." A "senior administration official" seemed to confirm that pass. "We don’t select targets, of course, and everything we’ve provided is for self-defense purposes. Any target they choose to pursue on sovereign Ukrainian soil is by definition self defense," the official said, adding that "Crimea is Ukraine."

Whether this confluence of Ukrainian and Russian goals leads to the use of nuclear weapons or to escalation of conventional war, it could likely have been avoided.

When Zelensky was elected in 2019, his platform featured peace with Russia and autonomy for the Donbas through the Minsk Agreement. It did not include reintegrating Crimea. But, unwilling to break from the US, Germany and France, who were signatories to the Agreement, failed to come through on their promise to usher in implementation of the Agreement, and the US refused to put serious pressure on Kiev to fulfill its part of the agreement.

In the time between the collapse of the Minsk Agreement and the beginning of the war, Zelensky remained open to diplomatic solutions regarding the Donbas and Crimea. In December, 2021, Zelensky was still open to the possibility of Crimea remaining within Russia: “I do not rule out a referendum on Donbass in general. It might be about Donbass, it might be about Crimea."

Still by March 8, Zelensky was saying that he is open to discussions on "compromises in Crimea" and that he "is ready to hold a dialogue with Russia on security guarantees, on the future of the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions [and] Crimea." Although he said that "We cannot recognize that Crimea is the territory of Russia," he also said, "But we can discuss with Russia the future of Crimea and Donbas." He added that “Ukraine is ready to hold a dialogue with Russia on . . . the future of the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.” Three weeks later, Zelensky defined his goal as Russia withdrawing to positions they held before the invasion. That would exclude Crimea.

But that hope waned under Western pressure. The West discouraged Zelensky from pursuing solutions on Ukraine’s terms.  State Department spokesperson Ned Price seemed to discourage Zelensky’s openness to diplomacy when he said, “Now we see Moscow suggesting that diplomacy take place at the barrel of a gun or as Moscow’s rockets, mortars, artillery target the Ukrainian people. This is not real diplomacy. Those are not the conditions for real diplomacy.” The State Department also discouraged Ukraine from negotiating the key issue of the war, that Ukraine not join NATO, because “this is a war that is in many ways bigger than Russia, it’s bigger than Ukraine.”

After diplomatic progress was made in Istanbul, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson rushed to Kiev to tell Zelensky that Putin “should be pressured, not negotiated with.” He told Zelensky that, even if Ukraine was ready to sign some agreements with Russia, the West was not." Following the talks in Istanbul, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu complained that “There are countries within NATO who want the war to continue.” The talks seemed to yield promise, "But following the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting, it was the impression that…there are those within the NATO member states that want the war to continue," Cavusoglu said.

Ukraine’s goal of reclaiming Crimea and Russia’s red line for escalating the war or even using nuclear weapons if the existence of the Russian state is threatened are on a dangerous collision course. That course could possibly have been diverted had the US supported Zelensky’s openness to diplomatic solutions.

Ted Snider has a graduate degree in philosophy and writes on analyzing patterns in US foreign policy and history.

Another Missed Opportunity in US-China Relations

by Mel Gurtov Posted onAugust 26, 2022

ANTIWAR.COM

The Washington Post reports that Xi Jinping personally asked President Biden to find a way to put off House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. According to the Post’s account, Biden explained to XI that the independent role of Congress made it impossible for him to stop her, even though US intelligence officials were (correctly) convinced that China would follow through on its warnings and make a forceful response.

China’s ambassador to the US said: "We had warned that if Pelosi made the visit, there would be very serious consequences. China would firmly and forcefully respond. To our regret, the United States chose not to listen." Pelosi’s trip was not written in stone: She said she would not go if Biden explicitly asked her not to.

So Biden had an out, but:

"In the end, Biden never spoke to Pelosi about her trip despite XI’s request . . . In an offhand comment, Biden told reporters shortly before Pelosi’s expected visit that military officials believed the trip was not a good idea."

Now just imagine a different scenario: Biden, concerned about China’s reaction to the visit, says to XI: "I will do my best to persuade her, out of respect for China’s sensitivity regarding Taiwan. But in return for her postponing her trip, I want your assurance that China’s military will stop air naval maneuvers that threaten Taiwan. And let’s plan on holding high-level military-to-military and diplomatic discussions to promote mutual security in the Taiwan Strait area." It was an engagement moment, prompted by the US national interest in competitive coexistence with China.

Would Biden "look weak" if he succeeded in stopping the trip? That’s the usual retort, but Biden could have responded to such a charge by pointing out that Taiwan’s security would not be undermined by the postponement, whereas Pelosi’s trip would force China to make a show of strength. Biden could readily point to the many ways his administration is supporting Taiwan: three recent military aid packages, Biden’s public comments upholding strong ties with Taiwan, and the array of security arrangements, such as the Quad (US-Japan-Australia-India), that are focused on any Chinese threat in the Asia Pacific.

A positive response to XI was an opportunity to put US-PRC relations onto a more positive track at a time when those relations are rapidly deteriorating. At the least, Biden’s proposal would have tested XI’s frequent assertions in support of improved relations.

One Chinese foreign policy expert recently wrote a lengthy defense of China’s Taiwan policy and a sharp critique of how the US is eroding the One China policy. Yet the expert ended not with a warning but with a suggestion that the two countries find common ground:

"On the Taiwan Strait issue, China and the United States need to further negotiate more practical and in-depth cooperation on confidence-building measures and crisis management at the strategic and technical levels, based on the two countries’ current crisis management mechanisms. The existing crisis management mechanisms of China and the United States mainly have three types of institutional arrangements: high-level interaction, dialogue and communication channels, and military rules of behavior.”

The article suggests that there are voices inside the policymaking apparatus in China that are open to dialogue even on Taiwan, the most important of Beijing’s core interests and ordinarily a subject closed to "external interference."

Tensions in the Taiwan Strait will probably cool down in coming weeks. But the Pelosi trip has created new circumstances that do not bode well for moderating Taiwan’s role in US-China relations. More official US visits to Taiwan are in the offing, and in Congress the mood favors bipartisan efforts to upgrade Taiwan’s status.

Meantime, the Chinese military will continue testing Taiwan’s defenses, breaking with previous patterns that had avoided directly challenging Taiwan’s territorial waters and air space. As a Chinese military adviser said the other day, the strategy is to "close the door and beat the dog."

Spiraling confrontations will end in open conflict unless Washington and Beijing seize diminishing opportunities for engagement.

Mel Gurtov, syndicated by PeaceVoice, is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University and blogs at In the Human Interest.

DURING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA

South Korea signs $2.25 billion deal with Russia nuclear company

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

August 26, 2022 

Nuclear power plants, Kori 1, right, and Shin Kori 2 are seen in Ulsan, South Korea, Feb. 5, 2013. (AP Photo)

SEOUL--South Korea landed a 3 trillion won ($2.25 billion) contract with a Russian state-run nuclear energy company to provide components and construct a turbine building for Egypt’s first nuclear power plant, officials said Thursday.

The South Koreans hailed the deal as a triumph for their nuclear power industry, although it made for awkward optics as their American allies push an economic pressure campaign to isolate Russia over its war on Ukraine.

South Korean officials said the United States was consulted in advance about the deal and that the technologies being supplied by Seoul for the project would not clash with international sanctions against Russia.

According to South Korea’s presidential office and trade ministry, the contract between state-run Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power and ASE requires the South Koreans to provide certain materials and equipment and construct the turbine building of the plant being built in Dabaa. The Mediterranean coastal town is located about 130 kilometers northwest of Cairo.

ASE is a subsidiary of Rosatom, a state-owned Russian nuclear conglomerate.

A senior aide of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said the negotiations were slowed by “unexpected variables,” mainly Russia’s war on Ukraine and the U.S.-led sanctions campaign against Moscow over its aggression.

Choi Sang-mok, Yoon’s senior secretary for economic affairs, said South Korea provided an explanation to the United States in advance about its plans to participate in the Dabaa project and that the allies will maintain close consultation as the work proceeds. As part of U.S.-led sanctions against Moscow, South Korea has ended transactions with Russia’s central bank and sovereign wealth funds and banned exports of strategic materials to Russia.

Neither Choi nor officials from South Korea’s trade ministry elaborated on how the crisis in Ukraine and the sanctions on Moscow affected the negotiations between Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power and ASE, which has a contract with Egypt to build four 1,200 megawatt reactors.

Choi stressed that South Korea’s involvement in the project would not clash with international sanctions against Russia.

“Any kind of issue can be met by various uncertainties, but those have all been resolved as of now, and that’s why we were able to finalize the agreement,” he said.

Yoon’s office expressed hope that South Korea’s participation in the Dabaa project would help the country gain a foothold in future nuclear projects across Africa and also improve its chances to export to countries such as the Czech Republic, Poland and Saudi Arabia.

Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power had been engaging in negotiations with ASE as the preferred bidder for the turbine-related project since December, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February.

Go Myong-hyun, a senior analyst at Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said the deal wouldn’t have been possible without an export approval by the United States as the components provided by Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power likely include U.S.-originated technology.

Current sanctions against Moscow also do not include specific restrictions related to nuclear energy and the Biden administration would have no interest in disrupting a crucial project for Egypt, which it sees as a key partner in the region, Go said.

While South Korea’s involvement in the Dabaa project wouldn’t immediately be a problem between the allies if the Americans signed off on it, things could change depending on how Russia’s war on Ukraine goes and whether Washington expands export controls against Moscow, Go said.

Yoon’s office said the participation in the Dabaa project is the country’s biggest export of nuclear power technology since 2009, when a South Korean-led consortium won a $20 billion contract to build nuclear power reactors in the United Arab Emirates.

Yoon, a conservative who took office in May, has pledged to boost South Korean exports of nuclear power technology, which he insists were dented under the policies of his liberal predecessor, Moon Jae-in, who sought to reduce the country’s domestic dependence on nuclear energy.

Yoon in a statement on Facebook said the deal reaffirms South Korea’s “advanced technology and safeness and strong supply chains” in the nuclear power industry. His government has set a goal of exporting 10 nuclear power reactors by 2030.

Vietnam court upholds 9-year prison sentence for journalist

A Vietnamese court has rejected an appeal by prominent journalist and democracy activist Pham Doan Trang, who had been sentenced to nine years in prison on charges of “propaganda against the state,” state media said

ByThe Associated Press

August 25, 2022, 

HANOI, Vietnam -- A Vietnamese court has rejected an appeal by prominent journalist and democracy activist Pham Doan Trang, who had been sentenced to nine years in prison on charges of “propaganda against the state,” state media said.

The Hanoi Supreme Court upheld the sentence that was handed down to the 44-year-old in December, Tuoi Tre newspaper reported. During the court hearing on Thursday, the judge said Trang’s activities “brought danger to the society,” “violated the stability" of the government and that her sentence was justified, the newspaper said.

Trang, who denied the charges, is known for her outspokenness on topics including gender equality, human rights and democracy.

For her activism, Trang was granted the 2022 Secretary of State’s International Women of Courage Award.

“Trang’s continued detention is the latest instance in an alarming pattern of arrests and sentencing of individuals in Vietnam for peacefully expressing their opinions,” said Ned Price, spokesperson for the U.S State Department.

“We call for the Vietnamese government to release Trang and to allow all individuals in Vietnam to exercise their right to freedom of expression, without fear of retaliation, consistent with the human rights provisions in Vietnam’s constitution and Vietnam’s international obligations and commitments,” Price said in a statement.