Tuesday, August 30, 2022

THE NEW COLONIALI$M

Ransomware: Cyber criminals are coming for the Global South

Hackers are targeting governments and public institutions in middle-income and developing countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa. They extort millions — and often find easy targets.

Within just a few weeks, a group of cyber criminals managed to throw Costa Rica into disarray.

In April, hackers took over the computer system of the country's finance ministry, demanding millions in ransom to return access. But authorities refused to pay. In the weeks that followed, the criminals retaliated by crippling the systems of nearly 30 other government agencies.

People across the Central American country felt the consequences: Tax systems froze. Workers were paid late. Goods for export, including perishable items like fruit, were stuck in customs.

By early May, the situation had become so bad that Costa Rica's newly elected president declared a national emergency. It marked the first time a country had taken that step in response to a cyber incident.

Shortly after taking office, Costa Rica's President Rodrigo Chaves declared a national emergency on May 12, 2022

Since then, authorities have managed to restore many of their services. But four months after the first strike, not all the damage caused by the attack has been fixed.

"This is an eye-opening moment for how vulnerable we are to cyber attacks — not just our government or our companies, but our entire society," said Diego Gonzalez, head of the cybersecurity chapter at Costa Rica's Chamber of Information and Communication Technologies.

From Latin America to Africa and South Asia

The case is a stark illustration of what cybersecurity researchers and industry professionals describe as a worrying trend: Cyber criminals are increasingly targeting government agencies and public institutions in mid-income and developing countries in the Global South, they told DW in a series of seven interviews.

This month, hackers brought down the court system of the Argentinian city of Cordoba. Last month, attackers knocked out a flood monitoring system in the Indian state of Goa. Earlier this year, an attack caused outages at the central bank of Zambia.  

In the summer of 2021, a cyber attack on rail and port company Transnet caused chaos at the port of Durban, South Africa's key entry point for goods

"There is no doubt that the number of ransomware victims in the Global South is on the rise," said Anna Chung, a threat intelligence researcher at cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks, pointing to a recent spike in ransomware attacks in Latin America.

Other researchers echoed her warning for regions in Asia and Africa.

Allan Liska, a cyberintelligence analyst at cybersecurity firm Recorded Future, said his company was observing an uptick of attacks across southern Asia, adding that "targets tend to be government agencies and larger organizations."

The same is true for many countries in Africa, said Joey Jansen van Vuuren, head of computer science at Tshwane University of Technology in Johannesburg, South Africa.

"Across Africa, ransomware has become the cybercrime with the biggest impact on governments and businesses," she said.

The tip of the iceberg

Ransomware attacks often follow a similar playbook: First, intruders gain access to a computer network. Inside, they spend weeks or even months snooping around. Once they find data that seems valuable enough that people would pay money to get it back, they encrypt the files and send a ransom note with their demands. 

Victims are left with two options: Refuse and try to restore their systems with backups — or pay and hope that the criminals will keep their word and return the data.








Cases in which victims publicly refuse to pay, like in Costa Rica, tend to make headlines.

But those are only the tip of the iceberg, experts caution. Most cases in which victims end up paying remain unreported, they say — and in some areas of the Global South, that has become common practice.

"Today, organizations often already accept this as a given — they are even making budgetary allocations because they expect that they will likely have to pay a ransom at some point," said Charlette Donalds, a lecturer at the University of the West Indies at Mona in Kingston, Jamaica, and the author of a book on cybercrime in the Global South.   

Many ransomware attacks remain unreported

Across the Caribbean, ransomware attacks are on the rise, Donalds said. Several tax authorities in the region, for instance, have had their systems compromised by attackers, according to the trade organization Caribbean Council.

Her co-author Corlane Barclay added that attackers often find easy targets. "For a long time, governments here thought that because we are small and the threat actors are international, they will focus on more lucrative victims," she said.

That is why many governments and institutions, as they digitized their services, invested little in cybersecurity measures, she added. 

Recorded Future's Allan Liska said that his company observed the same phenomenon across the Global South. He called it one of the reasons criminals zero in on the regions.

"The attackers know that they can find systems that are relatively easy to penetrate," he said.

The canary in the coal mine

So how can countries in the Global South better protect themselves against ransomware attacks?

Researchers agree that governments need to ramp up cybersecurity measures and invest in training a new generation of professionals. Countries with no existing cybersecurity legislation should pass laws to force companies and public institutions to protect their systems from cyberattacks.

Governments should also push for more international cooperation, they added, pointing to a new "counter ransomware initiative" launched by the US government last fall. Seven out of 30 countries included in the initiative are located in the Global South.

And they stressed that governments need to raise awareness of cybersecurity among their populations — because the threat of ransomware is here to stay.

Once again, that was illustrated by events in Costa Rica.

One month after the country declared a national emergency, another group of cybercriminals managed to take over the IT system of Costa Rica's main public health organization. It led to thousands of patients missing medical appointments.

A ransomware attack affected some 1,200 hospitals and clinics across Costa Rica

"That was when people realized that those attacks can affect our families, our children," cybersecurity entrepreneur Diego Gonzalez said. He hopes that this recent experience will prompt political decision-makers to boost long-term investment in cybersecurity.

But he is also convinced that what happened in his home country could soon happen again elsewhere.

"We live in the age of cyber attacks," Gonzalez said, "this is only the beginning."

Edited by: Rina Goldenberg

 

GOOD NEWS

How Africa increased its healthy life expectancy

Most people agree that it's vital to grow old healthily. In Africa, healthy life expectancy has increased by 10 years — more than anywhere else. DW explores the reasons for this and examines how the trend can continue.

Healthy aging is one thing — the blue ink on this 108-year-old South African

 woman's thumb shows that she has voted

The Margaret Kenyatta mother-and-child hospital wing in Nakuru, is Kenya's second-largest maternity ward. It boasts about 250 beds and carries out 20 cesarean sections and 30 natural births every day.

The clinic — opened in 2018 by its namesake, the wife of outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta — is one of many examples of measures by the government to lower high mortality rates and improve health care.

Previously, for every 100,000 live births, there had been more than 350 cases in which mother or child died, according to government figures.

Many expectant mothers have praised the new facility. 

"The treatment was great, and I thank the nurses who took care of me," Janet Ngetich said. The 34-year-old gave birth to her daughter at the clinic three years ago — and was one of the first people to benefit from a new program.

Ngetich said the Linda Mama program allowed expectant mothers without medical insurance to give birth anywhere in Kenya.

Healthy life expectancy increases

In East Africa, the World Health Organization has acknowledged particularly great progress in the area of health care — in addition to better care for mothers and children — which includes the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases.

According to a new WHO report, people on the African continent could expect to live an average of 56 years in good health in 2019, with a general life expectancy of just under 63 years — 10 years longer than at the turn of the millennium.

The WHO has praised a significant improvement in health services coverage since 2000

No other region of the world has experienced such a significant increase in healthy life expectancy — even if Africans can still expect fewer healthy years of life on average than people from other parts of the world.

The average person born in Rwanda in 2000 could expect only 41 healthy years of life. For those born in 2019, it is already 60. 

One of the biggest improvements is that HIV-positive people now often have easy access to antiretroviral drugs and can therefore often lead a symptom-free life. Vaccinations — against measles, for example — and better management of tropical diseases can also contribute to longer life spans.

On the other hand, there are other challenges to keeping people fit and healthy in old age. Globally, the WHO calculated healthy life expectancy in 2019 to be as high as 63.7 years — so Africa remains below average.

Noncommunicable diseases

The older people get, the more frequently noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) occur. These include cancer, diabetes and a variety of cardiovascular diseases.

Prebo Barango, who works on NCDs at the WHO's regional office in Harare, Zimbabwe, told DW that he sees such diseases as the biggest stumbling block to the continued improvement of healthy life expectancy.

"There are many reasons why noncontagious diseases are on the rise," Barango said. "For example, when an unhealthy diet or lack of exercise leads to obesity or other problems. Tobacco and alcohol contribute, as does environmental pollution. All of this is driving the new epidemic of noncommunicable diseases."

Much of Africa remains below the global average when it comes to life expectancy

Barango stressed the value of education and prevention. But health systems must adapt to a growing number of NCD patients and the increasing need for long-term therapies, he said.

"This requires resources," Josephat Nyagero, research director for the Kenya-based NGO Amref, told DW. "Human, financial and so on. Not to mention love."

The COVID-19 factor

The coronavirus pandemic has also played a role. Many experts believe that Africa got off fairly lightly compared to other regions, even taking into account statistical under-reporting of infections. 

But the pandemic is likely to rear its ugly head in upcoming healthy life expectancy surveys. WHO's Prebo Barango said that COVID had reversed some progress made by strengthening health systems in some countries — or at least led to stagnation.

Increased pressure on the health system because of COVID-19 and very strict social distancing measures in some countries often made access to treatment, surgery and medical consultations difficult.

Taking good care of mothers and newborns is key to a high healthy life expectancy

Care structures not affordable for many

In its report, the WHO praised the fact that coverage of health services has improved significantly since 2000. But at the same time, it cautioned that many households still have to spend more than 10% of their budgets on their health. The WHO defines this threshold as "catastrophic."

"Access has improved," Nyagero said. "But the second question is: Is access also affordable? Here, alternatives should be examined, for example, universal health insurance subsidized by the state. That further improves access."

Rwanda, for example, has been offering universal health insurance for years — but that is an exception rather than the rule in Africa.

Roadside advertisements often entice people to eat unhealthy foods

WHO, as well as national health ministries, are also working to bring more treatment options to the countryside, Barango said.

"For rural and poor urban populations, access is limited," he said. "Now, we want to work to ensure that facilities at the district level can steer more treatments."

Barango acknowledged that this would require large investments, but, he said, they would ultimately have a big impact.

Nyagero expects healthy life expectancy to continue growing across Africa. "The gains and improvements can probably be sustained," Nyagero said. "There may be interruptions, but I expect a situation where Africa visibly continues to catch up with the global average."

Janet Ngetich's daughter is now 3 years old and has already received some free vaccinations thanks to Linda Mama.

Waiko Mbogho (Nakuru) contributed reporting to this article.

The French island that's a nudist resort and military zone

On Ile du Levant, a French island in the Mediterranean, two unlikely communities have been living side by side for decades — one without clothing and one in military uniform.

The resort's founders wanted 'a simple, rustic city, where lovers of fresh air and sun would come to the calm of nature'

It's approaching 10:40 a.m., and the ferry headed back to the mainland will soon depart. Passengers gather at the port, waiting to board. "Ah! You've gotten dressed. How strange," a man says to the person next to him. "Yes I know. I waited until the very last moment," the young woman laughs.

Welcome to the Ile du Levant, a small island about 15 kilometers (9 miles) off the French Mediterranean coast where two very different communities have co-existed for more than 70 years.

A tenth of the 10-square-kilometer surface area is home to Heliopolis, a small naturist resort founded in 1932, with around 250 property owners. The remaining 90% is a restricted military zone housing a missile testing center established in 1950.

While walking among relaxed, naked holidaymakers, it's easy to forget the other part of the island. But the path to the beach is flanked on one side by a barbed-wire topped fence; signs reading "Military zone. Do not enter" also provide a clear reminder.

The French sign reads: 'Military Zone. Access forbidden'

According to Guido, 71, when you live on the island — as he does half the year — it's not really something you think about. "We have almost nothing to do with the military," the Swiss retiree says at his holiday home overlooking the sea. Sometimes, Guido concedes, he does hear military exercises, munition being fired. "Always on Tuesdays," he says. "A bit of noise."

Life without clothes

He's more keen to talk about how he and his wife Sylvia "live in freedom without clothes." The couple have been coming to the island since 1990, often with their three children. They bought their house in 2003.

This time they have two grandchildren, aged 11 and 9, in tow. Being naked as a family unit "simply isn't a big deal," Guido says, though some relatives have declined invitations to visit. "Mainly the men," he adds.

Like many naturists, Guido, who was responsible for reactor safety at a nuclear plant in his professional life, stresses that there is nothing sexual about the practice.

Hedonists might be disappointed: Public sex is strictly prohibited on the island. Nudity is the rule on beaches and the hiking trail, and is allowed in certain restaurants and shops, of which there are just a handful. In the port, minimal coverage is required. The island is quiet, with no cars. Electricity only arrived in 1989.

Heading down to the beach in minimal clothing

Delphine and Francois, a French couple sitting at the port, say they came for the peace and natural beauty. For them, naturism is not about exhibitionism. "Actually, it's funny, but when you don't have clothes on, you don't look at each other. You don't look at whether a person is large or small or whatever. Everyone is the same. It's relaxed," Delphine, a 57-year-old dental assistant, says.

Retreat from civilization

Nudism or naturism (advocates generally use the latter) is a movement that first  emerged in Germany partly as a reaction to the industrialization and urbanization of the late 19th century, soon spreading to France and beyond. Early proponents emphasized the health benefits of outdoor exercise, a good (often vegetarian) diet and a return to nature.

BARE FACTS: GERMANY'S NUDISM MOVEMENT 
A 'free body': Germany's nudist culture 
It's a part of German culture, just like techno music and "Spargelzeit," the asparagus season. Even though the practice of Freikörperkultur (FKK), which translates as "free body culture," is dwindling among the younger generations of Germans, you'll still find lots of FKK areas on beaches as well as nude culture enthusiasts in spas — and even parks.   1234567891011

As the movement gained traction in the early 20th century, two brothers — doctors Andre and Gaston Durville — bought a section of the Ile du Levant from a property company and founded, in 1932, Heliopolis as an "international naturist center." 

The rest of the island, long used by the French navy, has been owned by the French state since 1892. All of this is meticulously documented on the island's history blog.

The brothers wanted — according to legal documents belonging to the Heliopolis association — to build "a simple, rustic city, where lovers of fresh air and sun come to the calm of splendid nature, rest from the fatigues of the artificial civilization of cities by spending their holidays simply and healthily." Early photos show the athletic Gaston Durville hard at work at construction.

These days, people come to relax. The island is very popular with the queer community and this year's traditional beauty pageant, Miss Ile, was won by a trans woman for the first time, local newspaper Var-Matin reported.

Civilian life, military life

Life on the other side of the barbed-wire fence is likely quite different. While civilians sun themselves on the beach or take a naked hike in the nature reserve, military officials test marine, submarine and airborne material, or carry out training. 

About 70 testing or training sessions are expected this year alone, a spokesperson for the French Armament General Directorate told DW. However, testing is limited in the busy months of July and August, the source stressed. About 225 personnel reside on the island Monday to Thursday. Italian and German troops also come here to train.

As Guido stressed, interactions are rare, though the military staff does provide emergency medical care if needed.

From Golden Age to renewal

French naturism saw its heyday in the 1960s and 70s, according to the French Naturism Federation (FFN): "The relaxation of social mores, the emancipation of women, and the development of paid annual leave allowed naturism to establish itself as a new philosophy of life… and holidays." 

After the golden age came a period of decline but France remains a major international destination, with 350 naturist centers, according to the FFN. However, the movement struggles with an ageing fan base.

Only 14% of France's naturism enthusiasts (an estimated 2.6 million) are under 40, according to a 2016 survey carried about by campsite chain France 4 Naturisme and cited by the FFN on its website.

But the FFN says that promotional campaigns and increased societal interest in healthy living have helped win over a younger demographic in recent years.

On the day of DW's visit in August, the island was indeed bustling with visitors.

"In the last 10 years, there's been a renewal of clients, younger people," the president of Federation of Naturist Spaces (FEN), Jean-Guy Amat, told broadcaster RTL in July.

The pandemic years also stopped people from travelling abroad, bringing new visitors to naturist camp sites, Amat said.

Among the next generation of naturism fans are the passengers leaving on the 10:40 a.m. ferry, mainly a younger crowd. Those left on the bay cheer and wave the boat away. On the top deck, swimming trunks come off and are waved enthusiastically above heads in what looks like a good omen for the future of the movement.

Edited by: Elizabeth Grenier

DW RECOMMENDS

Scientists find new bird species in untouched outpost of South America

Scientists have identified a new species of bird, named "Subantarctic rayadito", on the isolated Diego Ramirez Islands.

The tiny brown bird weighs around 16 grams and has black and yellow bands along with a large beak

A new bird species has been identified in the southernmost islands of the Americas leaving biologists amazed.

Scientists have identified the Subantarctic rayadito in the Diego Ramirez Islands that lie 100 kilometers from southern Chile's Cape Horn.

The small brown bird weighs around 16 grams (roughly half an ounce) and has black and yellow bands along with a large beak.

The finding, which was reported on Friday in the science journal Nature, highlights the significance of observing some of the most remote places on earth.

The Diego Ramirez Archipelago is not only geographically isolated, it also lacks terrestrial mammalian predators and woody plants, the study said.

The small group of sub antarctic islands have a tundra climate, meaning that tree growth in the archipelago is hindered by bitter temperatures and short growing seasons. 

Surviving in a harsh environment

The discovery comes as a surprise because the bird — found nesting in a place with no woody plants — resembles a rayadito species that inhabits the forests of southern Patagonia and lives in trunk cavities.

"There are no bushes and no woodland species, literally in the middle of the ocean a forest bird has managed to survive," Ricardo Rozzi, an academic from Chile's University of Magallanes and the University of North Texas and director of the Cape Horn International Center for Global Change Studies and Biocultural Conservation (CHIC) told news agency Reuters.

During the course of the research, which spanned six years, scientists captured and measured 13 individuals on the island.

"The Birds from the Diego Ramirez population were significantly heavier and larger (with a longer and wider bill and longer tarsi), but they had a significantly shorter tail," the study said.

With the finding, researchers said the study emphasized "the need to monitor and conserve this still-pristine archipelago devoid of exotic species" brought in from elsewhere, usually by humans, which often then prey on local fauna.

In 2017, the government of Chile announced the creation of the Diego Ramírez Islands-Drake Passage Marine Park, protecting the Diego Ramirez Islands.

The park includes 140,000 square kilometers of Chile’s southern waters, starting in the Cape Horn and extending south to the 200 miles of Chile’s economic zone towards Antarctica.

ECOCIDE

What is the environmental cost of gas flaring?

Russia is believed to have flared large amounts of gas near the Finnish border since July, releasing approximately 9,000 tonnes of CO2 per day. DW looks at the potential climate impact.

Satellite imagery captured a gas flare at the Portovaya plant, Russia

In its recent analysis of activity at the under-construction Portovaya liquid natural gas facility not far from where the Nord Stream 1 pipeline enters the Baltic Sea, Norwegian-based company Rystad Energy said Russia was flaring gas that would ordinarily have been supplied to Europe. Had relations with the West not soured as a result of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Flaring is generally a common practice near oil fields and processing plants across the world, with companies burning off gas that is generated as a byproduct during various processes involved in oil exploration and extraction.  

Firms usually resort to flaring when they lack adequate infrastructure or financial incentives to bring the gas to market, or when it needs to be released for safety reasons to manage changes in pressure during crude oil extraction.  

Huge volumes of gas are currently lost to flaring each year. According to the World Bank, in 2021 approximately 144 billion cubic meters of gas were burned in thousands of flares at oil production sites worldwide — enough to power the whole of sub-Saharan Africa, or almost two-thirds of the European Union's net domestic electricity generation. 

A picture taken from Finland shows natural gas being burned at Russian plant near the border

How does it affect the environment?  

Flaring is seen as environmentally preferable to venting gas directly into the atmosphere. 

"If you have in parts of your grid too much gas, you have to release it and of course for the climate it is better to burn it because you massively reduce the greenhouse gas effect than if you release the natural gas, as it is CH4 [methane]," said Stefan Lechtenböhmer, professor and director of future energy and industry systems at the Wuppertal Institute, a German think-tank.

Compared to the CO2 released from flaring, methane is around 80 times more potent for global warming over a 20-year period.

Despite this, gas flaring is still considered economically unproductive and a critical climate issue. "You have the CO2 emissions, but no use from it: you don't produce electricity, you don't produce heat, you don't drive industry processes etc," Lechtenböhmer said.

Gas wasted in flaring, venting and methane leaks from oil and gas operations led to around 2.7 billion tons of CO2 equivalent emissions in 2021. According to the International Energy Agency, preventing this loss would have the same impact on global temperature rise by 2050 as immediately eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from all the world's cars, trucks and buses.

The top ten countries flaring gas around the world includes US, Iraq and Russia

Potential impact of Russian gas flare 

Zongqiang Luo, senior gas and LNG analyst at Rystad Energy says the sheer volume of gas being burned at the LNG facility in Russia makes it a particularly concerning case.  "A normal, standard procedure will not flare that amount of gas."

Although the exact volume of gas being lost to flaring at Portovaya is difficult to calculate accurately, Rystad estimates it to be around 4.34 million cubic meters per day. That equates to 1.6 billion cubic meters annually, around 0.5% of the EU's annual gas demand needs.

Rystad Energy has described the situation as an "environmental disaster," with around 9,000 tons of CO2 being emitted daily. 

Lechtenböhmer said this daily gas burning was equivalent to roughly 10-12% of the amount of gas currently delivered every day throughNord Stream 1.

"It is an environmental crime of the largest proportion —  it is protracted, it goes on for months, and as we are now learning, it is highly visible," said R. Andreas Kraemer, founder of the Ecological Institute, a non-profit research organization based in Berlin. 

The Russian gas giant Gazprom has slashed flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to just 20% of capacity since mid-July, blaming technical reasons like faulty equipment for the cut.  

Germany rejects this argument and says the reduction in gas supply was a political move in response to Western sanctions against Moscow over the Ukraine war.  

Some argue that after Russia cut supplies to its European customers, it couldn't divert the gas to anywhere else and therefore opted to burn it off.  

Gazprom, which according to Rystad Energy is building the plant where gas is being flared, did not respond to requests for comment. 

Experts are concerned the black carbon could land on Arctic ice, accelerating melting

Black carbon pollution and the Arctic 

Experts such as Kraemer have also expressed concern about the pollution from black carbon —  more commonly known as soot — produced during flaring from the incomplete burning of fuels like natural gas. Black carbon is a powerful contributor to global warming, converting solar radiation into heat and impacting rainfall patterns.

Kraemer regards the northern geographical position of the Portovaya flare as concerning. 

"I think from that location, it [black carbon] will go far," he said, explaining the heat could make it rise to high altitudes where it can be blown across significant distances. "They [black carbon particles] will eventually settle on the ground. And if they settle on snow, then they change the absorption of sunlight by the surface of the snow or ice and that can accelerate Arctic melting.”

Using calculations of the estimated flow rate through the flare, it is likely that this single flare is currently producing more black carbon than the entire country of Finland, said Matthew Johnson, professor and head of the energy and emissions lab at Carleton University in Canada. 

Based on Rystad's analysis, the World Bank said that on a daily basis the individual flare at the Portovaya LNG facility is equivalent to around 6% of the daily flaring estimated for Russia in 2021. Most Russian flaring is driven by oil production in a small number of fields in East Siberia.

By volume the country flaresmore gas than any other globally, topping a list that includes Iraq, Iran, US and Venezuela. 

Nico Bauer, senior scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said Russia's performance to reduce gas flaring is insufficient.

"Russia's government planned to reduce gas flaring from about 12% of associated gas to below 5%, which is the share achieved in countries with advanced gas production industries. However, this has not been achieved."

Edited by: Tamsin Walker 

NASA calls off Artemis I rocket launch to moon

Engine trouble has prompted the US space agency to postpone the debut launch of its next generation rocketship. Its Artemis program aims to eventually fly astronauts back to the moon..

The unmanned Artemis I is designed as a test flight for future Moon exploration, with a view of eventually establishing a permanent settlement

NASA on Monday called off the launch of a rocket in its Artemis I mission due to a temperature issue with one of its engines.

The launch of the 322-foot (98-meter) Space Launch System rocket and its Orion capsule was originally scheduled for 8:33 a.m. (1233 GMT). The uncrewed rocket was to blast off from the Kennedy Space Center in the US state of Florida.

What is the Artemis I mission?

The Orion capsule is designed to orbit the moon to see if it is safe for people in the near future. The goal of the mission is to eventually set up an outpost on the moon as a pitstop for future Mars exploration and later colonization.

Cameras will capture every moment of the trip, which will last 42 days. The Orion capsule is to orbit around the moon, coming within 60 miles (100 kilometers) of the celestial body. It will then fire its engines to get to a distance 40,000 miles away from it, which is a record for a spacecraft designed to carry humans.

One of the main objectives of the mission is to test the capsule's heat shield, which is the largest ever built. During the capsule's return to Earth, the shield will have to withstand a temperature of nearly 2,760 degrees Celsius (5,000 degrees Fahrenheit), which is half as hot as the sun.

'First woman and first person of color'

Women now make up 30% of staff in the control room, compared to just one for the Apollo 11 mission in 1969 that took the first humans to the moon.

NASA has said that "we will see the first woman and first person of color walk on the surface of the moon" once the program is able to launch a crewed rocket. The mission is named after the Greek moon goddess Artemis.

"This mission goes with a lot of hopes and dreams of a lot of people. And we now are the Artemis generation," NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said on Saturday.

Repeated delays

The rocket's fuel tanks began to be filled overnight from Sunday to Monday. Early on Monday, a hydrogen fuel leak emerged, forcing launch controllers to halt the tanking operation.

The tanking process was already running an hour late due to stormy weather. Following the initial delay, NASA said there was an 80% chance of acceptable weather for a lift-off on time.

September 2 and 5 have been scheduled as alternative dates for the launch.

The flight is years overdue, and repeated delays have led to billions in budget overruns.

Around 100,000 to 200,000 spectators were expected to attend the launch on Monday.

sdi/nm (AP, AFP, Reuters)

AUDIOS AND VIDEOS ON THE TOPIC

Fact check: What role does climate change play in extreme weather events?

Attribution scientists are modeling floods, droughts and wildfires in real time to determine how big a part global heating plays in each event. DW takes a closer look.




Torrential rains have turned parts of Pakistan into 'small oceans'

After scorching heat waves withered crops and dried up mighty rivers in the Northern Hemisphere, catastrophic super flooding in Pakistan has so far killed more than a 1,000 people, displacing millions more.

Pakistan's climate change minister, Sherry Rehman, told DW much of the flood area she surveyed from helicopter looked like a "small ocean" because of the relentless rain that followed soaring temperatures earlier in the year and a season of forest fires.

"It is a climate catastrophe, I'm very clear," said Rehman.

That heating the planet by burning fossil fuels is broadly making extreme weather more frequent and intense is well established. Scientists have been sounding the alarm bells on that for years.

But just how big a factor is climate change in deadly flooding like that in Pakistan or in the heat waves that dried up Europe this summer

Establishing a direct causal link between rising global average temperature and a single storm, for instance, is difficult and an evolving science.

"Extreme weather has always existed and will always exist," said Sjoukje Philip, a climate researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). "But climate change might, however, have an impact on the probability or extremity of the extreme weather events."

Determining climate change's contribution is exactly what Philip, who works with an international research team at the World Weather Attribution initiative (WWA), is trying to do by conducting real-time attribution analysis of global weather events as they occur.
Does global warming cause flooding and heat waves?

Weather catastrophes are never down to just one cause. They result from natural factors, as well as human-made ones. For instance, large-scale deforestation and paving over green areas that would usually absorb heavy rainfall with concrete and tarmac can worsen flooding.

Climate change is a human factor too, of course, but is never the sole trigger of a weather catastrophe. Its influence depends on the weather phenomenon in question and is weighted differently for each event, said German climatologist Friederike Otto from Imperial College in London and a founder of the WWA research team.



Climate change plays a big role for some events, said Otto, "but for most others like heavy rainfall or droughts, it is quite often a relatively small factor compared to others."

So while global heating alone cannot cause heavy rain, it can facilitate prime conditions and increase the amount of precipitation.

"A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which can result in heavier rainfall," said Philip. But where and when that falls depends on a variety of factors, she added.

The link between temperature extremes and global heating is much more direct, said Philip. Swings in temperature are not necessarily more extreme but as global average temperatures rise, heat waves have grown hotter and cold spells milder.

Without global heating, recent record temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in the United Kingdom would have been virtually impossible, as would the North American heat wave of 2021, according to WWA analyses. And climate change made deadly early heat waves in India and Pakistan this year 30 times more likely.

"With heat waves climate change is really a game changer," said Friederike Otto.
Does climate change have the same impact everywhere?

Climate change impacts also differ from region to region, said Philip. "So even for similar types of extreme weather, it can still be different for different regions."

Take the Ahr Valley flood in Germany and Belgium in July 2021 compared to flooding in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal in April 2022 as an example. At least 435 people died in the latter flood and thousands were made homeless. In the Ahr Valley, heavy rainfalls triggered flooding that killed more than 220 people.

The heavy rainfall in the Ahr Valley would have been a once in 500-year event around the start of the 20th century. That means we could have reckoned with such an extreme event every 500 years in an area of a similar size between the Alps and the North Sea under global average temperatures seen in the year 1900, according to a WWA analysis.



Flood damage in KwaZulu-Natal. Climate change's influence on extreme weather depends on multiple factors

Global heating made the event 1.2 to 9 times more likely, so in today's climate, we can expect such a flood every 56 to 400 years. At the same time, the rainfall was likely 3 to 19% stronger than it would've been 120 years ago, said the research group.

In KwaZulu-Natal, the researchers found climate change had made torrential rains that washed away entire settlements between 4 and 8% stronger. The probability, meanwhile, had doubled since 1900.

So, the uncertainties in weather attribution vary greatly depending on location. Climate scientists can determine the influence of warming more precisely in bigger regions. The area flooded in South Africa was many times larger than the affected valleys in Belgium and Germany. But it's clear that the influence of global warming on heavy rainfall in South Africa is in all probability smaller than in Central Europe.
Predicting future weather disasters

Potential disasters in the distant future cannot be predicted with existing models — the weather is too chaotic for that. Serious weather forecasts are still only possible a few days in advance.

But what weather attribution models can "calculate very well is the frequency of certain weather patterns," said Otto. And according to WWA findings, as we continue to burn fossil fuels causing global average temperatures to rise, weather patterns that can trigger floods, droughts and other extremes become more likely.

CLIMATE CHANGE: FLOODING, DROUGHT, FIRE AND HEAT WAVES AROUND THE WORLD
Heavy rains devastate communities in Kentucky, USA
Heavy rain has pummeled mountain communities in the US state of Kentucky. Water rushed down hillsides, swallowing towns, washing away homes and trapping hundreds of people. At least 30 people have been killed. US Vice President Kamala Harris said the flooding showed the urgency of crisis and announced $1 billion in grants to help states prepare for weather extremes worsened by climate change.

This article was originally published in German.