LACK OF CENTRAL PLANNING

U.S. Solar Bottlenecks Are Causing A Resurgence In Coal

By Haley Zaremba - Sep 03, 2022, 

• Coal has seen a resurgence since the beginning of the pandemic.
• 
  
• The Ukraine war aided in coal’s return as the West scrambled to rid itself from Russian energy.
• 
  
• Solar bottlenecks too are fueling a rise in coal consumption in the United States.

For years, academics and journalists alike have been reporting the terminal decline of coal in the United States. In 2018, Vox reported that while the sector was “flailing about desperately for subsidies, tax breaks, and regulatory loopholes — the kinds of political favors that have kept it afloat for so long — at this point it is merely delaying the inevitable.” But those reports could not have predicted the pandemic, or the Russian war in Ukraine, or the hiccups in renewable energy supply chains that have converged along with high summer temperatures to create the “perfect storm” of energy setbacks that are currently reviving the domestic coal sector.

It’s true that coal is not now, and will likely never again be anywhere close to peak production levels in the United States. In the last 15 years domestic coal production levels have fallen by half as the dirtiest fossil fuel has fallen out of favor with the general public and been economically undercut by the shale revolution. After a flood of cheap natural gas gushed out of the West Texas Permian Basin and saturated the U.S. energy market, followed by a huge decline in costs for solar and wind energy, coal plants began to shut down at a steady clip – until now. 

According to a report this week from the Financial Times, a growing list of U.S. electric utilities are extending the lives of their coal-fired plants past their planned closure dates. Many of them say that delays in solar energy installation are to blame. “Many of the operators are attributing the deferral of plant closures to delays in solar or solar [and battery] storage projects,” Morris Greenberg, an analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told FT. 

For one thing, solar installments have slowed down severely in 2022. This seems to be due to a perfect storm of issues in the solar panel supply chain: difficulties receiving parts, legal issues concerning illegal labor and trade practices in solar manufacturing in Southeast Asia and China, and hotter and longer heat waves attributed to global warming. Meanwhile, in regions of the United States where solar is being produced in large quantities, bottlenecks in the grid aren’t allowing that energy to be transported to meet demand. Instead, it’s languishing on the grid where it was produced and pushing energy prices negative. So even if solar panels were being installed at the same rate of last year, infrastructure failures would still leave utilities between a rock and a hard place.

The extension of coal production is bad news for the country’s – and by extension the world’s – climate pledges. As disappointing as the setback may be, it may not be all that surprising. Just last year at the COP26 global climate conference, the United States neglected to take a strong stance against coal. “The Biden administration arrived this month at international climate talks in Scotland with the intent to prove the United States was again ready to lead the fight against global warming,” Scientific American reported at the time. “But when more than 40 countries signed a pledge to phase out coal in the coming decades, the United States was conspicuously absent.” Economists commented that instead of riling up political adversaries and coal-country constituents, the Biden administration preferred to let the market continue its course.

We are now seeing the consequences of that inaction. The United States, of course, is far from the only country begrudgingly returning to coal. Across the world, an unprecedented energy squeeze is leading governments to source energy from wherever they can get it. Europe and China are seeing a coal renaissance in response to the squeeze, while Japan has done the unthinkable and proposed a return to nuclear energy in a stunning policy reversal. Keeping the heat on this winter has pushed climate concerns to the back burner. 

While the focus on the immediate is understandable, it gives cause for concern for future inevitable energy shocks as the world attempts to embark on a green energy transition in the midst of worsening climatic conditions. If global leaders return to coal every time there is an upset in the energy sector, meeting climate goals will be all but impossible. Instead of focusing merely on ramping up renewable capacity, pairing capacity with better renewable infrastructure and stop-gap measures are needed to make these inevitable hiccups as smooth as possible.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com 

Is The UK Doing Enough To Achieve Its Climate Goals?

By Global Risk Insights - Sep 04, 2022, 

• Temperatures exceeded 40 degrees celsius for the first time in recorded history in the United Kingdom
• 
  
• Despite a 70% reduction in emissions from electricity production and a noticeable uptick in the sale of electric cars, the UK is not living up to other goals.
• 
  
• It has been suggested that the UK’s ambitious net zero targets will only be achievable through drastic changes both to policy direction and to societal attitudes.

Recent unprecedented temperatures experienced within the United Kingdom – recorded as exceeding 40 degrees celsius for the first time – exemplify the increasing likelihood and intensity of severe heatwave events in the region as a result of climate change. This comes not long after the publishing of a new Progress Report by the independent Climate Change Committee (CCC), which highlights major failures in delivery of policy commitments vital to achieving the UK’s climate goals.

Despite a 70% reduction in emissions from electricity production and a noticeable uptick in the sale of electric cars, the UK has largely failed to implement policy on headline goals such as home insulation and agricultural emissions under Boris Johnson’s government.

The Conservative leadership contest saw candidates whittled down in a series of votes among conservative Members of Parliament (MPs). These rounds saw the elimination of the candidates most opposed to net zero targets, Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch. Seemingly more ‘green’ candidates like Tom Tugendhat, who defended emissions targets and acknowledged that climate change is “one of the greatest challenges we face” have also been eliminated. With the Conservative leadership race in its final stage, Conservative party members are left with two choices, former chancellor Rishi Sunak and former foreign secretary, Liz Truss, but what of their commitments to a net-zero UK?

Sunak and Truss on Climate Policy

Reflecting the leadership race more widely, neither Sunak nor Truss have been particularly vocal on climate issues as part of their campaign efforts – perhaps this is linked to the fact that climate action is the bottom priority for Conservative party members with only 4% of Conservative party members ranking net zero as one of their three top priorities for the new leader. They also both have mixed track records on environmental policy.

Sunak recently came out in support of maintaining the UK’s net zero by 2050 target, but has been criticised for blocking green policies required for decarbonisation and watering down environmental policies, such as home insulation policy and green homes grants, while in post as chancellor. Most recently, he was criticised for missing a crucial moment to double down on net zero efforts in the context of an ongoing cost of living crisis within the UK, with campaigners arguing that ending reliance on fossil fuels would protect Brits from future energy and fuel price shocks. His voting record also suggests some level of support for a regressive climate policy, almost always voting against policies to prevent climate change, including voting against a call on the UK government to develop a plan to eliminate a substantial majority of transport emissions by 2030.

Truss, while also aiming to maintain the UK’s 2050 net zero target, has generally voted against policies aimed at preventing climate change and has called for the reconsideration of some climate policies, such as the green levy (part of the household energy bill that funds a mix of social and green programmes such as schemes that support efficiency improvements in homes and businesses) which she aims to suspend or remove. She has also slashed subsidies for solar farms in her role as environment secretary, referring to them both as ‘ugly’ and a ‘blight on the landscape’, as well as opposing the UK’s bid to host the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow under Theresa May’s government.

Risk: UK Reputation as a Leading Net Zero Nation

It has been suggested that the UK’s ambitious net zero targets will only be achievable through drastic changes both to policy direction and to societal attitudes. However, the lukewarm stances and mixed environmental records of the two finalists suggests a high likelihood of continued ambivalent and lacklustre domestic environmental policy with a possibility of backsliding, which will further impede the UK in achieving its emissions target of net zero by 2050.

Continuing to fall behind on net zero policy presents a potential risk for the Conservative government. A weak climate policy may present an opportunity for opposition parties. By modeling climate policy as a greater tenet of their campaign platforms, the opposition could sweep up voters who consider climate change to be a more salient policy issue. This is a realistic possibility, given public opinion polls consistently suggest climate change and net zero policy issues rank far higher in priority among the broader electorate than among conservative party members. It is reasonable to assume that wider public opinion would view a lukewarm climate policy under Sunak or Truss negatively and that further failures to implement the relevant policies vital for achieving the UK’s emissions targets would likely be damaging to the Conservative electoral prospects. This could be especially detrimental to the Conservative party in marginal ‘red wall’ seats, which Labour hope to re-gain, and ‘blue wall’ seats, which face a strong challenge from the Liberal Democrats.

Further, there is a considerable risk to the UK’s image as a ‘leader in climate protection’. Boris Johnson has repeatedly cited the UK’s achievement of becoming the first major economy to adopt net zero by 2050 policy, and the UK has garnered considerable international attention following its hosting of the COP26 climate summit. However, observed failures to adopt the necessary climate legislation to meet its own targets, coupled with a predicted continued sluggishness in implementing climate policy under the leadership of either Sunak or Truss, puts the UK’s reputation as a green economy and global climate leader at considerable risk. This would not only be awkward for the UK, but may also have serious political consequences internationally, as well. Following claims that UK climate policy inspires other countries’ efforts, there is a potential risk for the UK’s projected failure in meeting its own climate targets to set a regrettable example. 

By Global Risk Insights

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Europe’s Energy Crisis Could Force The Large Hadron Collider To Be Idled

By Charles Kennedy - Sep 05, 2022, 

• A combination of factors is feeding into a major energy crisis in Europe at the moment, forcing households to ration their power and industrial companies to shut plants.
• Now, the Large Hadron Collider, the world’s largest and most powerful particle accelerator may have to be idled to ensure grid stability in France and Switzerland.
• The European Organization for Nuclear Research, CERN, will shut down other accelerators first, claiming that it could reduce its power use by 25% without idling the LHC.

The energy crisis in Europe is not only disrupting businesses and household finances, but it’s also hitting at the heart of crucial scientific research and experiments. 

The European Organization for Nuclear Research, CERN, the world’s largest particle physics lab and home of the Large Hadron Collider, could shut down some accelerators and could even idle the LHC to ensure grid stability in the nearby French and Swiss regions amid the severe energy crisis in Europe, Serge Claudet, chair of the CERN energy management panel, told The Wall Street Journal. 

Europe is experiencing an unprecedented energy crisis amid halted Russian gas supply via the Nord Stream pipeline, low nuclear power generation in France, a power crisis in Switzerland, and sky-high gas and power prices.    

Large European industrial companies have already announced plant or production line closures due to soaring gas and energy prices, while governments in Europe are drafting plans to potentially ration gas supply to industries according to their specific priorities.  

The crisis became much worse at the end of last week, when Russian gas giant Gazprom said after three-day maintenance on Friday that Nord Stream would remain shut until “operational defects in the equipment are eliminated”, upping the ante in its gas war against Europe. 

For most governments in Europe, the indefinite suspension of Russian gas flows through the main pipeline to Germany wasn’t a surprise; they had expected such a move from Putin. But this doesn’t make the EU’s task of ensuring lights and heating on this winter any easier. Switzerland and France – whose grids CERN uses to power its supercollider and seven other particle accelerators to study matter and two decelerators to study antimatter – are among the worst hit.   

Switzerland has admitted that the country might have to resort to using oil for electricity generation this winter as Europe is dealing with low levels of Russian natural gas supply, which could be cut even further or cut off altogether.

In France, year-ahead power prices surged to $1,001 (1,000 euro) per megawatt-hour for the first time ever last month. French power prices have now soared tenfold over the past year, as drought and hot weather this summer have added to France’s nuclear power generation problems at the worst possible moment. EDF will restart all its nuclear reactors in the country this winter, French Energy Transition Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher said last week. Currently, more than half of EDF’s reactors are out of operation either because of maintenance or technical issues. 

One of EDF’s largest clients is none other than CERN, which uses 1.3 terawatt hours of electricity annually. That’s enough power to fuel 300,000 UK homes for a year. At peak consumption, usually from May to mid-December, CERN uses about 200 MW, which is about a third of the amount of energy used to feed the nearby city of Geneva in Switzerland. 

May to mid-December is the period of active work at the Large Hadron Collider, the world’s largest and most powerful particle accelerator, which discovered ten years ago the existence of the Higgs boson that gives mass to the elementary particles. The collider was just restarted this July after a three-and-a-half-year hiatus for upgrades. 

However, due to the energy crisis, CERN is now considering how it could idle the world’s most powerful collider. 

“Our concern is really grid stability, because we do all we can to prevent a blackout in our region,” Claudet told the Journal.  

CERN and its power supplier, EDF, are now discussing the possibility of implementing daily warnings for power grid instability at the research complex to determine when it would need to conserve energy and use less electricity, the head of CERN energy management panel told the WSJ. The organization will shut down other accelerators first, before possibly having to resort to a shutdown of the world’s largest particle accelerator, he added. With the shutdown of some of the other accelerators, CERN could thus lower its power use by 25%.  

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

France’s EDF Vows To Restart All Nuclear Reactors By Winter

By Michael Kern - Sep 02, 2022, 

France’s state-held utility giant EDF will restart all its nuclear reactors in the country this winter, potentially alleviating the energy crisis in Europe during peak heating season. 

Currently, more than half of EDF’s reactors are out of operation either because of maintenance or technical issues. 

“EDF has committed to restart all its reactors for this winter,” French Energy Transition Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher said at a news conference on energy security on Friday. 

EDF operates a total of 56 reactors in France, but 32 of them are currently either undergoing maintenance or experiencing technical issues, the minister added.  

Every week starting in October, EDF will restart one reactor, Pannier-Runacher added.  

France has been experiencing outages at its nuclear reactors in recent months, which have slashed power generation from nuclear power plants. France’s nuclear power generation accounts for around 70% of its electricity mix, and when its reactors are fully operational it is a net exporter of electricity to other European countries.

Prolonged maintenance at several nuclear reactors this year, however, has meant less nuclear-generated power supply for both France and its export markets. 

Moreover, drought and hot weather this summer have added to France’s nuclear power generation problems at the worst possible moment. As Europe grapples with low Russian gas supply and the threat of no Russian supply at all, non-Russian energy sources are more important than ever. 

Last week, year-ahead power prices in France surged as much as 13% on Friday alone, to $1,001 (1,000 euro) per megawatt-hour for the first time ever. French power prices have now soared tenfold over the past year. 

Energy prices in Europe were smashing records all last week after Russia’s Gazprom said on August 19 that it would halt all deliveries via Nord Stream to Germany for three days between August 31 and September 2. This announcement raised renewed concerns that supply via the pipeline could be further cut or halted altogether after the three-day unplanned maintenance. Gas supply via Nord Stream is set to resume at 1 a.m. GMT on September 3. 

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com