Wednesday, September 14, 2022

New model to help reframe the transition to low-carbon electric power

Peer-Reviewed Publication

PENN STATE

Governments and societies around the world face increasing urgency in responding to climate change by accelerating the transition to a low-carbon energy system but differing views remain on the combination of energy technologies that will best achieve this goal. Identifying technological pathways is complicated by wide uncertainties in economic and technological factors.

Mort Webster and a team of Penn State researchers developed a model to help reframe the energy transition discussions. Their model demonstrates the value of flexible investment strategies and that many pathways are needed to meet the emissions reduction goals outlined in the Paris Agreement.

Webster hopes their findings, published in Environmental Science & Technology, will reverse policy recommendations emerging from research literature calling to adopt narrow assumptions that favor, or limit, certain technologies while advancing highly specific portfolio recommendations. The reason is simple: the future is hard to predict. 

“There's a lot of great analyses and simulations out there, but many say ‘this is the path’ and draw a perfectly predictable line heading straight to the year 2050,” said Webster, professor of energy engineering in Penn State’s College of Earth and Mineral Sciences. “However, two years ago natural gas was $3 a gallon, and this summer it went up to $9 in California. Nobody saw that coming. How can we predict costs or how much fuel we’ll be using in 2049?”

Webster noted that planning models with targeted mandates and specific recommendations are well-intentioned, but the reluctance to grapple with uncertainty limits their practicality. Conversely, Webster sees value in preserving options and even postponing some decisions, which follows a long-established decision science concept known as option value. 

Webster sees advantages in dividing planning models into two separate investment strategies, near-term and long-term, as a more promising way to navigate the challenge of retiring existing electricity-generating capacity for new technologies. The flexibility gained from simply recognizing that we are more certain of near-term conditions, than those decades away, helps avoid the selective approach found in most academic and industrial literature.

The team’s proposal is not without challenges. Many near-term and long-term strategies offer conflicting recommendations due to the vast amounts of capital investment, time and infrastructure some technologies require. For Webster though, that simply highlights the importance of broadening the technology portfolio with a focus on adaptability.

“We don't need to do everything today, that we need to do 30 years from now. Let's do some things now and give ourselves the ability to change our mind depending on how things evolve before we make the rest of the investments,” said Webster.

Webster’s team tested their proposal by simulating their model with 2,000 different scenarios of future conditions to identify the best technology pathways that minimized the average total costs across all futures. Operations and maintenance, new construction, variable fuel and non-fuel costs of generation were calculated as costs. To ensure feasibility, penalties for unmet electricity demand were also included.

The case study compared investment options in energy technologies such as nuclear, natural gas, solar, wind, geothermal, and coal, with and without carbon capture. The analysis showed a small number of portfolio types that included wind, solar, and natural gas with carbon capture worked well for a substantial number of possible futures, while other combinations were uncompetitive in any future. 

The specific result did not surprise the team. The analysis, which accounts for uncertainty, option value, and technology groups that perform well when combined, demonstrated the limited usefulness of statements that a particular technology can or cannot contribute to a low-carbon future or that a commitment should be made to one specific long-term portfolio. The models also signaled near-term policies should focus on investments over the next decade that make progress toward decarbonization commitments without foreclosing options for additional future investments.

Webster, who is a faculty member in the John and Willie Leone Family Department of Energy and Mineral Engineering, said the results follow the collective approach of the department and college.

“In our department, we take a systems-wide approach and are always looking across multiple disciplines and resources,” said Webster. “We are scientists and engineers who work on petroleum, on coal, on solar, or energy storage, but rather than promoting a particular energy source or technology, we see we can all collectively be a part of the solution to this complex challenge.” 

Webster believes reframing the conversation will help decision-makers sidestep scenario-specific plans that often lead to incoherent near-term plans or timid actions.

“If we want to reach a cumulative emissions reduction of 80% by 2050, we must embrace uncertainty and make strategic steps now that are flexible so that we can pivot to whichever way the future takes us,” said Webster.

Investigation examines fossil fuel industry influence at elite American universities

Fossil fuel companies fund academic research on climate change to protect their products; Many students are calling for their universities to cut ties with the fossil fuel industry

Peer-Reviewed Publication

BMJ

An investigation published by The BMJ today takes an in-depth look at how fossil fuel companies pour money into prestigious American universities. 

Investigative journalist Paul Thacker examines how oil and gas companies have funded research to try to weaken messages on climate change, capture academia, and protect their interests, much like tobacco companies did half a century ago.

Today’s report is thought to be the first systematic examination of fossil fuel funding influence across multiple elite campuses.

As one example, Thacker reports how a paper published by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) helped alter American energy policy and kicked off a fracking boom.

One Stanford University student told The BMJ that climate scientists at elite universities have normalised financial relationships with oil and gas companies, and many students are now calling for their universities to cut ties with the fossil fuel industry.

Thacker describes how, at the turn of the century, a fresh crop of research centres to confront global warming began popping up at prestigious American universities including Princeton, Stanford and MIT.

Ironically, he reports that the seeds for these academic centres were planted by fossil fuel companies, echoing a scheme by tobacco companies in the 1950s to counter research showing smoking was harmful by funding university-based scientists.

Indeed, some documents confirm that energy companies had similar goals in mind when they began throwing money at elite American universities.

A handful of years after these documents came to light, British Petroleum and Ford motor company donated a combined $20m to Princeton in 2000 to launch the first major programme at an American university to tackle climate change.

Princeton extended its partnership with ExxonMobil two years ago.

ExxonMobil declined to say how much money it had given Princeton, as did Princeton. However, a Princeton spokesperson told The BMJ that the university has authorised a process to dissociate itself from fossil fuel companies that engage in climate disinformation campaigns.

Meanwhile the movement on campuses against fossil fuel funding is growing.

In March last year, students at Stanford sent the university’s president a letter that highlighted the fossil fuel industry’s decades of deception on climate change and demanded that the university stop accepting research money from energy interests.
 
Hundreds of Stanford students, alumni, faculty, and staff released a separate open letter earlier this year calling on Stanford’s Doerr School of Sustainability - Stanford’s first new school in 70 years - to refuse fossil fuel funds.

Celina Scott-Buechler, a Stanford graduate student who signed the open letter, previously worked on climate change policy for a US senator and witnessed fossil fuel companies highlighting their funding of universities when asking congressional staff to change climate bills and water them down.

And Ben Franta, a Stanford student who is finalising his PhD on the history of climate disinformation, claims that professors began criticising him for raising problems and possibly threatening their funding. As this article was going to press, Oxford University announced that Franta was joining their faculty to establish the Climate Litigation Lab.

“We can look at other examples of industries that have funded research related to their products,” Franta told The BMJ. “Often the reasons are to obtain the trust of scientists, to paint themselves as part of the solution to the broader public, to keep an eye on what research is being done - even to influence what research gets done, what doesn't get done.”

Stanford did not answer questions sent to them by The BMJ and responded with a short statement that it is committed to unbiased research and that the dean of the Doerr School of Sustainability will partner with industry to tackle climate change.

Many of those calling for their universities to cut ties with the fossil fuel industry cite carbon capture technology research as a prime example of the problem as it permits the notion that fossil fuel consumption can continue unabated, because harmful greenhouse gases are sequestered and locked up underground.

Last November, Tufts University professor Neva Goodwin co-published an essay arguing that carbon capture is the latest ploy by the fossil fuel industry to delay action on climate change, while Stanford professor of engineering Mark Jacobson says: “There’s never, under any circumstances, any benefit of using carbon capture equipment.”

Oddly enough, Thacker reports that more than 40 years ago Exxon scientists found that while carbon capture may work technically, it fails economically as the energy required to capture and transport the carbon to underground storage is too expensive.

Yet when asked about its internal documents denigrating carbon capture, a ExxonMobil spokesperson told The BMJ that the company is focused on achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions with investments in carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels.

“Young people don’t want to work in a lab that is funded by oil companies because these young people want to solve climate change,” says Franta. He expects universities to resist efforts to remove fossil fuel funding, but says those that do “are going to see their reputations decline. This is going to be an issue that is not going away.”

[Ends]

Former Alberta chief medical examiner's wrongful dismissal trial concludes with settlement

Jonny Wakefield 

A 2011 file photo of Dr. Anny Sauvageau, who settled her wrongful
 dismissal lawsuit against the Alberta government this month

A high-profile wrongful dismissal lawsuit brought by the first woman to serve as Alberta’s chief medical examiner has been settled out of court.

Dr. Anny Sauvageau was due back in the Court of King’s Bench this Friday for closing arguments in her $7.5 million lawsuit against the Alberta government.

Her lawyer, however, said Wednesday the case settled “about a week ago” and that he could not discuss specifics. The Ministry of Justice and Solicitor General did not respond to inquiries by publication time.

Settlements in civil cases are frequently subject to confidentiality clauses.

Alberta’s chief medical examiner and top forensic pathologist from 2011 to 2014, Sauvageau claimed she was denied a contract renewal because she protested political interference in her office.

Sauvageau alleged ministry staff were influenced by an Alberta Funeral Service Association campaign against new body transport contracts she sought to establish. She also said the government waffled when she tried to obtain assurances regarding her office’s independence when investigating deaths of children in provincial care.

The government argued Sauvageau was a poor manager and combative employee who took an “excessive” view of what her independence entailed.

Sauvageau’s trial began April 1 . Originally scheduled for 38 days, it faced multiple delays, including when Calgary lawyer and former Progressive Conservative justice minister Jonathan Denis sent a letter to Sauvageau’s lawyer accusing her of defaming him.


A 2012 file photo of then-Alberta Justice Minister and Solicitor 
General Jonathan Denis.© Larry Wong

Court of King’s Bench Justice Doreen Sulyma, the judge hearing the Sauvageau case, called the letter an “ act of intimidation ” and found Denis in contempt of court.

Denis later asked the Court of Appeal to stay the contempt finding pending an appeal, arguing Sulyma failed to follow proper procedure in finding him guilty. Court of Appeal Justice Ritu Khullar declined to stay the conviction and also denied a request to expedite the appeal.

Josiah Tweedie, a paralegal with Denis’s Guardian Law Group, said the former minister’s main appeal will be heard Oct. 31, 2022, and that no sanctions for the conviction have been imposed.
“Mr. Denis looks forward to having his appeal heard and adjudicated,” Tweedie said in an email.

Sauvageau’s trial resumed June 21 for closing arguments, during which her lawyer Allan Garber faced a barrage of tough questions from Sulyma.

At one point, the judge referred to a series of issues raised by Sauvageau as “mini outrages” and said the doctor was “ not prepared to resolve any of these matters of contention.”

Garber insisted the government acted in “bad faith” and “if they were expecting someone to just come in, sit at the desk, look good, be a wallflower, then they picked the wrong person.”
ABOLISH THE MONARCHY
More Canadians see monarchy as 'outdated' but political risks block change


:People walk by as a tribute to Queen Elizabeth appears on the 
National Arts Centre, after Queen Elizabeth's passing, in Ottaw

By Steve Scherer

OTTAWA (Reuters) -A growing number of Canadians do not want a foreign monarch to represent them despite deep historical ties to Britain and affection for the queen, but risks that come with constitutional reform mean there is little political will for change.

Britain colonized Canada beginning in the late 1500s, and the country formally remained part of the British empire until 1982. Now it is a member of the Commonwealth of former empire countries that have the British monarch as head of state.

Dozens of Canadian city names, like London and Windsor, reflect the enduring ties. But according to an Angus Reid Institute poll from April, 51% of Canadians do not want the monarchy to continue as its ceremonial figurehead, up from 45% in January 2020. Only 26% of respondents said it should and 24% were unsure.

Further, according to a Leger poll published on Tuesday, some 77% of Canadians said they feel no attachment to the British monarchy.

"Canada is the only G7 country whose head of state is another country's citizen," said Flavio Volpe, president of Canada's Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association.

"I prefer someone from Windsor than from the House of Windsor" to be head of state, said Volpe, referring to the Canadian city across the river from Detroit.

"We should have serious conversations as a country about whether we can find a Canadian to fill a ceremonial post."

The death of Queen Elizabeth last week triggered a huge outpouring of affection in Canada, but most find their relationship with a foreign sovereign awkward. A ceremony was held in Ottawa on Saturday to proclaim the accession of Britain's King Charles.

"The monarchy is outdated and has no relevance in our government. I think it's time we just stood on our own," said John Nielsen, 61, a contractor in Ottawa.

Those from Quebec, the mostly French-speaking province, feel even less kinship with Britain, with 71% in the Angus Reid poll saying they no longer see a need for monarchy, and 87% saying they feel no attachment to the royal family in the Leger poll.

A fifth of Canada's population are newcomers with little connection to Britain, and indigenous peoples tend to harbor little fondness for the colonial power. In one example of their feelings, indigenous activists pulled down a statue of the queen on the grounds of the Manitoba legislature in 2021.

"Besides a whole lot of photo opportunities alongside chiefs in headdresses, the reign of Queen Elizabeth will forever be marked by inaction," Niigaan Sinclair, a professor of Indigenous Studies at the University of Manitoba, said in a column for the Winnipeg Free Press published after her death.

QUEBEC AND TREATIES

Pro-monarchy Canadians and analysts say the constitutional monarchy is a well-functioning democratic system, and more importantly, changing it would be both complex and politically risky.

Quebec, which has sought independence twice in referendums, has never formally approved the constitution, and most of the treaties with indigenous peoples were signed with the Crown, not the Canadian government. These treaties set up reserves, guaranteed hunting and fishing rights, and sometimes included annual payments.

Both issues would be politically thorny if Canada overhauled its constitution.

Constitutional wrangling with Quebec in the past has been political poison, with two attempts to introduce constitutional amendments in the both late 1980s and early 1990s failing, while at the same time energizing the Quebec sovereignty debate.

"The massive constitutional effort of removing the Crown would inevitably invite many other suggestions for constitutional change. Canada went down this road in the 1980s and 1990s and the country nearly collapsed from all the competing demands," said Jonathan Malloy, professor of political science at Ottawa's Carleton University.

At least seven provincial legislatures representing more than 50% of the population, plus parliament, must approve constitutional amendments.

Al Carl, 73, is an Ottawa pensioner who says the monarchy provides stability in a divided political landscape and "differentiates us from the United States". Changing the constitution would be untenable, Carl said.

"How do you do that with the divisiveness of our politics? How would you ever get Quebec to agree to anything?" he said.

'AS LONG AS THE RIVERS FLOW'


Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, when asked about his position regarding the monarchy on Tuesday, said Canada's democracy is healthy and while he is always open to "strengthening" it, "Canadians are almost entirely preoccupied with the big issues we're facing" like climate change and the economy.

Without endorsing the monarchy or closing the door to a debate, Trudeau said his government would focus on the issues important to Canadians.

Malloy said he is personally "uncomfortable" with the constitutional monarchy and "its feudal, colonial, and wildly elitist underpinnings," adding, however, that "it does basically work" and so changing it is "a low political priority".

First Nations National Chief RoseAnne Archibald brushed off concerns about the effect of a constitutional change on treaties, though she did not endorse a constitutional overhaul.

"First Nations will always have a relationship with the Crown no matter what Canada does as a corporation," Archibald told Reuters. "As long as the sun shines, the rivers flow and the grass grows, these covenants remain in effect."

(Reporting by Steve Scherer in Ottawa, additional reporting by Anna Mehler Paperny in Toronto and Allison Lampert in Montreal, editing by Deepa Babington)

Egypt: Renewed crackdown threatens work of last independent news site

Egyptian authorities have Mada Masr in their sights once again after critical reporting. But the editor of the country's last independent news source told DW that they will continue their work.

Mada Masr's journalists (left to right): Rana Mamdouh, Sara Seif Eddin,

 editor-in-chief Lina Attalah and Beesan Kassab in front of Cairo's Appeals 

Prosecution after being released on bail

Following an investigative report about corruption within one of Egypt's largest political parties, the country's last independent news site has come under fire from the judiciary.

"We expected repercussions on this article," Lina Attalah, editor-in-chief of Mada Masr, told DW. "This is never a reason to not publish a story, as long as the evidence is 100% airtight and cross-verified."

The article, published in late August, highlighted "serious financial infractions" by prominent members of the "Nation's Future Party" that "should lead to their departure from the political scene."

The repercussions turned out to be of a different kind, however.

Instead of seeing party members go, Attalah and the three authors of the article were called in for interrogation at Cairo's Appeals Prosecution a week later.

They were accused of slander and defamation of Nation's Future Party members, as well as the publication of false news intended to disturb public peace.

While Attalah was released after paying a bail of 20,000 Egyptian pounds ($1,032), and the other three journalists after paying 5,000 pounds ($258) each, it is still unclear if the prosecution will take their case to court.

"We really hope that the judiciary will drop the charges out of respect for the work of independent journalists," Attalah told DW.

For her, this would be a triumph on behalf of the public interest. "A powerful political party should be treated as a public entity and should be subjected to criticism in this capacity," the award-winning journalist said.


Lina Attalah (center) at Deutsche Welle's Global Media Forum 2018

However, another worrying accusation came up during the interrogation: that Attalah was running Madr Masa without a license.

"I've been submitting requests for licensing since 2018 but have been constantly ignored by the relevant authorities," she said.

And without such a license, the future of Mada Masr is in limbo.

Since the introduction of the  "NGO Law" last year, civil rights organizations and non-governmental organizations are obliged to register with the government and allow insight in their work and funding.

The law also bans collaborations with foreign groups or publishing the results of opinion polls without government approval, and prohibits any action that undermines "national security" or is "political."

 Organizations in violation of this law face fines of up to one million Egyptian pounds.

For the media watchdog Reporters Without Borders, the denial of the license and the interrogation of Mada Masr's journalists "exemplify the significant pressure to which journalists in Egypt have been subjected to, as well as the government's will to muzzle the press in general," the organization's Middle East spokesperson Pauline Adès-Mével told DW.

This view is echoed by the Committee to Protect Journalists, which ranked Egypt as the third-worst jailer of journalists in 2021.

A number of sources estimate that up to 500 media outlets and websites have been closed or banned there over the past decade. 

"Following the ongoing crackdown and silencing of independent journalism over the years, an enormous amount of self-censorship has been produced in the Egyptian press," Timothy E. Kaldas, a Policy Fellow at the Washington-based think tank Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, told DW.

He added that "fear and intimidation is a much more effective and inexpensive mechanism for controlling the press."

Kaldas said that he is not surprised that "people within the regime continually attack Mada Masr, as it is one of the few places where they don't control the narrative and can't force Mada to reproduce the propaganda as most of the Egyptian media does."

Ongoing pressure

Since the launch in 2013, authorities have viewed the online news outlet as a nuisance, even blocking access to the website in May 2017. Since then, Mada Masr has only been accessible via secured virtual private networks (VPN) in Egypt, or through mirrored sites that circumvent the blocking.

In 2019, following a report about the oldest son of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, Mada Masr's headquarters were raided, the team was held for hours, and four journalists were temporarily arrested.

Then in 2020, Attalah was arrested outside Cairo's Tora prison before she could interview the mother of prominent prisoner Alaa Abdel-Fattah.

Prominent Egyptian activist Alaa Abdel-Fattah at court in 2015

Given these hurdles, Kaldas said that Mada Masr's perseverence has been exceptional, citing how the editors have "successfully managed to refuse to succumb to that and have been very courageous in what they're prepared to report and to face the risks that come with that."

For him, a loss of Mada Masr would be "an enormous loss for both Egypt and for the international community to access information about Egypt."

But editor-in-chief Attalah is far from giving in.

"Currently, we are building up our defense strategy in case we are taken to court," she said, adding that she will continue applying for their government license.

Above all, work continues for her and her team. "We report every day on the political situation, the economic crisis and everything else that matters in Egypt. We simply hope that this last crackdown will be just another episode in our battle to survive."

GUNRUNNER U$A
US approves major arms sale to Egypt despite rights concerns


Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi delivers his speech during celebrations marking the 75th anniversary of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) at the UNESCO headquarters in Paris Friday Nov. 12, 2021. The Biden administration on Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2022, approved a massive $2.5 billion arms sale to Egypt despite ongoing concerns over human rights. (Julien de Rosa, Pool Photo via AP)

MATTHEW LEE
January 25, 2022·3 min read

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration on Tuesday approved a massive $2.5 billion arms sale to Egypt despite ongoing concerns over human rights.

The sales were announced just hours after congressional Democrats urged the administration not to release a much smaller package of military assistance that had been put on hold last year pending the Egyptian government meeting certain rights-related conditions.

The State Department said Tuesday's sale was unrelated to $130 million in foreign military financing that was frozen in September and remains in limbo.

But the size of the sale dwarfed the amount of withheld assistance and is likely to draw criticism from lawmakers who are demanding the administration make good on pledges to tie arms transfers to countries meeting minimal human rights standards.

Tuesday’s sale included 12 Super Hercules C-130 transport aircraft and related equipment worth $2.2 billion, and air defense radar systems worth an estimated $355 million.

“This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a major non-NATO ally country that continues to be an important strategic partner in the Middle East,” the State Department said.

“We maintain that our bilateral relationship with Egypt will be stronger, and America’s interests will be better served, through continued U.S. engagement to advance our national security interests, including addressing our human rights concerns,” it said.

Shortly before the sale was announced a group of six House Democrats, including the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, and Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., called on the administration to insist that Egypt meet human rights criteria for military transfers.

“While we recognize and reaffirm important steps Egypt has taken in recent weeks to address such concerns by releasing certain political prisoners and individuals unjustly detained, the Egyptian government must meet the administration’s conditions in full by the communicated deadline,” Meeks and his colleagues said in a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

“If not, we urge you to stand by your word and immediately reprogram withheld funds,” they said.

Meanwhile, Murphy said, “Egypt looks unlikely and unwilling to meet the narrow conditions on the remaining $130 million in military aid by the deadline, while the human rights situation more broadly has only deteriorated over the last few months.”

"If Egypt doesn’t meet the conditions in full, the administration has to stand firm and show the world that our actions live up to our stated commitment to democracy and human rights,” Murphy said.

In September, Blinken announced that the administration would proceed with providing Egypt with $300 million in foreign military financing but would withhold another $130 million until the government “affirmatively addresses specific human-rights related conditions.”

It was not immediately clear if Tuesday's arms sale indicated that Blinken had decided that Egypt has satisfactorily addressed those issues.

Egypt’s government has in recent years waged a wide-scale crackdown on dissent, jailing thousands of people, mainly Islamists but also secular activists who were involved in the 2011 Arab Spring uprising that toppled the country’s longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak.

Egypt imposed a state of emergency in April 2017, following deadly church bombings and attacks on Coptic Christians that killed more than 100 people and wounded scores. It allowed for arrests without warrants, swift prosecution of suspects and the establishment of special courts.

The state of emergency has since been extended several times. However, President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi announced in October, when the last extension expired, that his government will no longer renew it.

Turkey's opposition desperately seeks an electable leader

Ahead of Turkey's 2023 elections, six opposition parties have joined forces to unseat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But the alliance still needs to decide on a leader.

All in the running (from left): CHP head Kemal Kilicdaroglu, mayor of 

Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas, Ankara's mayor

After years of talking about it, Turkey's opposition finally managed to form an alliance at the end of 2021. The name of the alliance, which is made up of six political parties, translates as Table of Six. Such a cooperation would have been unthinkable just a few short years ago.

The goal of the new alliance is to counter the yearslong dominance of the ruling AKP party, headed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The alliance also wants to bring the country back to a parliamentary system rather than the presidential one that has been imposed on it by an increasingly autocratic Erdogan.

It appears that this is something that many Turkish voters may want, too. In a recent survey by Turkish pollster Yoneylem, 65% of all respondents wanted to see the return to a parliamentary system while only around 30% wanted to stick with the presidential system.

In the same survey, some 63% of those who responded said that the AKP was ruling Turkey badly. A further 58% said that under no circumstances would they vote for Erdogan in the next election.

Six Turkish opposition parties have formed the Table of Six alliance

Impressive alliance

So the chances of the AKP being pushed out of office after the June 2023 elections look better than ever — of course, that is if the opposition can maintain its current unity until then.

The six parties who have formed the alliance are: the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), the nationalist Good Party, the conservative Islamist Felicity Party, the Future Party, the Democracy and Progress Party and the Democrat Party, which has been around for decades but hasn't made much impact over the past few years.

The Felicity party was Erdogan's first political home while the Democracy and Progress Party and the Future Party were both founded by former colleagues of his. The Future Party's Ahmet Davutoglu was once Turkey's finance minister and then its foreign minister. Ali Babacan of the Democracy and Progress Party also held several senior ministerial roles. Both were founding members of the AKP with Erdogan until critical of Erdogan's policies, they broke away from the party.

Second-largest opposition party out

As impressive as this alliance of opposition parties is, it is also true that the country's second largest opposition party, the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) was officially excluded.

Involving any Kurdish affiliated political party remains controversial in Turkey. In the past, there have been attempts to outlaw the HDP because of alleged ties to the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party or PKK. The latter has used violence in its fight for Kurdish rights and is classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.

As yet it is unclear which of the senior politicians in the Table of Six alliance will end up leading its campaign efforts.

Not charismatic enough

Three names are thought to be in contention for the job.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, head of the CHP, is considered the favorite and he has signaled that he would be willing to take on the role.

Under his leadership, the CHP achieved historic results in 2019 district elections. A CHP candidate was elected in both of Turkey's two largest cities, Istanbul and Ankara, where Erdogan's AKP had previously held sway for decades.

On the other hand, Kilicdaroglu has never managed to win an election himself and his critics doubt whether he can make a big enough impression on voters, especially when competing with such a strong personality as Erdogan.

This is why another of Kilicdaroglu's CHP colleagues might be a better candidate for the role.

Ekrem Imamoglu is one of the CHP's urban-vote-winning mayors. He's been running Istanbul for the past three years and is well liked by many locals regardless of their political affiliation. In his city of over 15 million people, Imamoglu presents himself as a mayor for all of the city's inhabitants.

One of the main criticisms directed at him, however, is that he seems to often be away on holidays during recent crises or catastrophes — something that hasn't gone down well with the general public.

Ekrem Imamoglu is the mayor of Istanbul, a city of over 15 million

Ankara's Mansur Yavas, the CHP's other winning mayor, is also popular. Since he took office, he has made it his job to tackle corruption and he has also placed much emphasis on environmental protection. His focus on these topics has been appreciated by his constituents.

However Yavas also happens to be a staunch nationalist, which makes him an unpalatable choice for many Kurdish voters, whose ballots play an important role in Turkish elections. That isn't to say that some Kurds wouldn't choose him for strategic reasons, and perhaps also because of a lack of a better options.

The country's most influential Kurdish Kurdish politician, Selahattin Demirtas, formerly co-leader of the HDP, and many of his fellow party members are in jail. A number of Kurdish voters harbor tremendous resentment against the AKP leadership because of this and, one imagines, would perhaps vote strategically just to get them out of power.

Europe has urged Turkey to release jailed HDP politician Selahattin Demirtas

There's another argument that speaks against having one of the two successful CHP mayors head the new opposition alliance. If they did take on the role, they would have to resign from their current mayorships, giving these two cities back to the AKP party. Erdogan's party still has a majority on the city councils there and would certainly choose the next mayors from within their own ranks.

Name recognition

Political scientist Seren Selvin Korkmaz says that for many voters, it is as much about who a politician is as what party or policies they stand for.

"For citizens here, it is all important who the leader is and what their name is," said Korkmaz, director of IstanPol, an independent institute for research and political studies.

"Within our current system, there is only one person who really stands out. So who will have all of these powers in the future? Who is capable of governing? That's what people are asking," she said.

The six opposition parties want to end President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's 20 year rule

No doubt the alliance is also discussing who could lead the opposition bloc. But the name of the alliance's potential leader is only likely to be announced at the beginning of 2023.

Then again, it might not matter too much who represents the Table of Six alliance and runs against Erdogan. Whoever it is probably has a realistic chance of winning the 2023 elections.

Of course, that's assuming the Table of Six alliance only puts up a single candidate and that the fragile alliance holds until the next presidental election.

Gulsen Solaker, DW Turkish's correspondent in Ankara, contributed to this article.

This article was originally published in German.

German economy sounds the alarm over expensive energy, lack of skilled workers

A recession is looming in Germany, and the mood was tense at the Employers' Day in Berlin. Calls for more financial aid are growing louder throughout the country.

'A strong economy — A strong Germany" was the motto of the business

 conference which Chancellor Olaf Scholz also attended

Working in a T-shirt during the German winter? That used to be normal for the mechanics working at the Rosier car dealership in the northern German city of Braunschweig. Their workshop was well heated. 

Sales consultants and other staff at the Mercedes dealership used to even allowed to put fan heaters under their desks in their offices if they weren't warm enough.

But that is a thing of the past. "We can't afford that anymore," said Stefan Becker, who heads the dealership.

Fan heaters are to be banned and instead of 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit), the workshop will probably get no warmer than 15 degrees.

It is a sunny September morning when Becker explains his plans alongside Saskia Esken, co-chair of the ruling center-left Social Democrats (SPD), who is on her way to Lower Saxony, which faces a state election in early October.

"Gas and electricity cost us around €2 million ($2 million) more per year than before," said Becker, as he looks through the workshop's gate to the warm day outside.

The workshop doesn't need heating yet but it's only a matter of time, he said.

SPD chairperson Saskia Esken (l) got to hear a lot of complaints — also from car mechanics

Esken looks serious as she listens to the car dealer. Only when he complains that the photovoltaic system that has just been installed on the roof is no longer financially supported by the state does the politician interrupt him to ask why he has only now started producing his own electricity.

"Because electricity and gas have always been cheap up to now," Becker replies with a shrug.

Wherever the SPD co-leader stops on her tour, there is only one topic: Germany's energy crisis that is turning into an economic crisis.

It's even affecting waste incineration plants. "People are consuming less, which produces less household and bulky waste, and we're feeling it," reports Bernard Kemper, managing director of Energy from Waste (EEW) in Helmstedt, a town in Lower Saxony.

Exporting waste? That was yesterday

The plant produces district heating, with which it supplies many thousands of households in the region. "We have to come up with something so that we can meet our heat value and thus our contracts," said Kemper.

Even though they are worried, the power plant operator and the car dealer are among those who say they will probably manage to get through the winter financially.

In many of Germany's other industries, things look less rosy.

Bernard Kemper's plant produces district heating which it supplies many

 thousands of households in the region

"We have a dramatic economic situation, we are struggling with a rising inflation rate, immense energy prices and severe shortages of raw materials, intermediate products and other goods," warned Rainer Dulger, president of the Confederation of German Employers' Associations (BDA) at the German Employers' Day held on Tuesday in Berlin.

In the business world, the mood is worsening with each passing day. The crisis caused by the coronavirus is still fresh in the memory and now a new recession seems inevitable.

It's a paradoxical situation: Many companies have full order books but because of broken supply chains, there is a shortage of materials from all over the world.

The shortage of skilled labor is greater than ever, and energy prices are becoming unaffordable. Bakers are feeling the effects just as much as steel manufacturers or chemical companies.

If customers don't support the price increases, manufacturers have only one option: To cut back business operations or give up production. But if a company no longer earns money, it faces insolvency.

According to surveys by trade associations, one out of three companies in Germany already believe that their existence is under threat.

Economy Minister Robert Habeck has promised support to German businesses

What will it cost to protect companies?

Production restrictions also have far-reaching consequences for other companies. There is a threat of a domino effect as chemicals and steel are basic materials that are needed everywhere.

The business community is calling for rapid assistance from the state, but with its relief packages, heating cost subsidies, increased child benefits and the 9-euro public transport ticket, the government has so far focused primarily on the population itself.

After fierce protests from businesses, Economy Minister Robert Habeck announced a expanded protection for companies as well, especially for small and medium-sized businesses and skilled trades.

But what will it cost in the event of an emergency? Triple-digit billions, like the bridging measures set up during the coronavirus pandemic? How many employees will be out of work in the winter and have to be kept afloat with short-term allowances? The Economy Ministry is still feverishly calculating the potential costs. Habeck had to concede at the Employers' Day that there was still no agreement in the government on how much money would be available for business aid.

The government's announcements on getting a grip on energy prices also look less concrete. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) promised quick help when it comes to power: Electricity producers that produce renewable energies and nuclear energy, which means they have no additional costs but have still been collecting high prices, are to hand over part of their so-called "windfall profits" to support poorer households and companies.

Habeck believes that a corresponding regulation could take effect from the end of the year and said it should also apply retroactively.

But the German government still doesn't have a quick solution for gas prices.

By the end of 2023, Germany will be completely independent of Russian gas. Thanks to import terminals for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) that are expected to be ready by then, all the gas needed can then be obtained from other countries.

The raw material will then come from Norway, the US and many other countries. Until then, it's a matter of persevering.

"We'll probably get through this winter, and that's good news at this time," said Chancellor Scholz, who doesn't think there will be a gas shortage.


Gernany is seeking to boost renewables

Polite applause for the chancellor

Though that doesn't tackle the high prices. Finding solutions to those is to be the task of an experts' commission that includes scientists, employers, and trade unionists.

But this isn't enough for employers' associations, who rarely applauded the chancellor at the 2022 Employers' Day.

The business community has little understanding for the government's decision not to allow the three nuclear power plants still in operation to continue running beyond the end of the year.

The chancellor did say that care would be taken "to ensure that it is possible for the nuclear power plants in southern Germany to continue running in January and February and March, so that under no circumstances would there be a bottleneck in the German electricity market."

The entrepreneurs would have preferred a clearer commitment.

"What is happening right now is as if you had thrown all the lifeboats overboard on the Titanic, but at the same time, the band is allowed to continue playing in the dining room," said Dulger, the president of the Confederation of German Employers' Associations. "That's not responsible policy."

This article was originally written in German.

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