Saturday, September 17, 2022

Machine learning gives glimpse of how a dog's brain represents what it sees

Results suggest dogs are more attuned to actions rather than to who or what is doing the action

Peer-Reviewed Publication

EMORY UNIVERSITY

Daisy in the scanner 

IMAGE: DAISY TAKES HER PLACE IN THE FMRI SCANNER. HER EARS ARE TAPED TO HOLD IN EAR PLUGS THAT MUFFLE THE NOISE. view more 

CREDIT: EMORY CANINE COGNITIVE NEUROSCIENCE LAB

Scientists have decoded visual images from a dog’s brain, offering a first look at how the canine mind reconstructs what it sees. The Journal of Visualized Experiments published the research done at Emory University. 

The results suggest that dogs are more attuned to actions in their environment rather than to who or what is doing the action.

The researchers recorded the fMRI neural data for two awake, unrestrained dogs as they watched videos in three 30-minute sessions, for a total of 90 minutes. They then used a machine-learning algorithm to analyze the patterns in the neural data.

“We showed that we can monitor the activity in a dog’s brain while it is watching a video and, to at least a limited degree, reconstruct what it is looking at,” says Gregory Berns, Emory professor of psychology and corresponding author of the paper. “The fact that we are able to do that is remarkable.”

The project was inspired by recent advancements in machine learning and fMRI to decode visual stimuli from the human brain, providing new insights into the nature of perception. Beyond humans, the technique has been applied to only a handful of other species, including some primates.

“While our work is based on just two dogs it offers proof of concept that these methods work on canines,” says Erin Phillips, first author of the paper, who did the work as a research specialist in Berns’ Canine Cognitive Neuroscience Lab. “I hope this paper helps pave the way for other researchers to apply these methods on dogs, as well as on other species, so we can get more data and bigger insights into how the minds of different animals work.”

Phillips, a native of Scotland, came to Emory as a Bobby Jones Scholar, an exchange program between Emory and the University of St Andrews. She is currently a graduate student in ecology and evolutionary biology at Princeton University.

Berns and colleagues pioneered training techniques for getting dogs to walk into an fMRI scanner and hold completely still and unrestrained while their neural activity is measured. A decade ago, his team published the first fMRI brain images of a fully awake, unrestrained dog. That opened the door to what Berns calls The Dog Project — a series of experiments exploring the mind of the oldest domesticated species.

Over the years, his lab has published research into how the canine brain processes vision, words, smells and rewards such as receiving praise or food. 

Meanwhile, the technology behind machine-learning computer algorithms kept improving. The technology has allowed scientists to decode some human brain-activity patterns. The technology “reads minds” by detecting within brain-data patterns the different objects or actions that an individual is seeing while watching a video.

“I began to wonder, ‘Can we apply similar techniques to dogs?’” Berns recalls.

The first challenge was to come up with video content that a dog might find interesting enough to watch for an extended period. The Emory research team affixed a video recorder to a gimbal and selfie stick that allowed them to shoot steady footage from a dog’s perspective, at about waist high to a human or a little bit lower. 

They used the device to create a half-hour video of scenes relating to the lives of most dogs. Activities included dogs being petted by people and receiving treats from people. Scenes with dogs also showed them sniffing, playing, eating or walking on a leash. Activity scenes showed cars, bikes or a scooter going by on a road; a cat walking in a house; a deer crossing a path; people sitting; people hugging or kissing; people offering a rubber bone or a ball to the camera; and people eating. 

The video data was segmented by time stamps into various classifiers, including object-based classifiers (such as dog, car, human, cat) and action-based classifiers (such as sniffing, playing or eating).

Only two of the dogs that had been trained for experiments in an fMRI had the focus and temperament to lie perfectly still and watch the 30-minute video without a break, including three sessions for a total of 90 minutes. These two “super star” canines were Daisy, a mixed breed who may be part Boston terrier, and Bhubo, a mixed breed who may be part boxer.

“They didn’t even need treats,” says Phillips, who monitored the animals during the fMRI sessions and watched their eyes tracking on the video. “It was amusing because it’s serious science, and a lot of time and effort went into it, but it came down to these dogs watching videos of other dogs and humans acting kind of silly.”

Two humans also underwent the same experiment, watching the same 30-minute video in three separate sessions, while lying in an fMRI.

The brain data could be mapped onto the video classifiers using time stamps. 

A machine-learning algorithm, a neural net known as Ivis, was applied to the data. A neural net is a method of doing machine learning by having a computer analyze training examples. In this case, the neural net was trained to classify the brain-data content. 

The results for the two human subjects found that the model developed using the neural net showed 99% accuracy in mapping the brain data onto both the object- and action-based classifiers. 

In the case of decoding video content from the dogs, the model did not work for the object classifiers. It was 75% to 88% accurate, however, at decoding the action classifications for the dogs.

The results suggest major differences in how the brains of humans and dogs work.

“We humans are very object oriented,” Berns says. “There are 10 times as many nouns as there are verbs in the English language because we have a particular obsession with naming objects. Dogs appear to be less concerned with who or what they are seeing and more concerned with the action itself.”

Dogs and humans also have major differences in their visual systems, Berns notes. Dogs see only in shades of blue and yellow but have a slightly higher density of vision receptors designed to detect motion.

“It makes perfect sense that dogs’ brains are going to be highly attuned to actions first and foremost,” he says. “Animals have to be very concerned with things happening in their environment to avoid being eaten or to monitor animals they might want to hunt. Action and movement are paramount.”

For Philips, understanding how different animals perceive the world is important to her current field research into how predator reintroduction in Mozambique may impact ecosystems. “Historically, there hasn’t been much overlap in computer science and ecology,” she says. “But machine learning is a growing field that is starting to find broader applications, including in ecology.”

Additional authors of the paper include Daniel Dilks, Emory associate professor of psychology, and Kirsten Gillette, who worked on the project as an Emory undergraduate neuroscience and behavioral biology major. Gilette has since graduated and is now in a postbaccalaureate program at the University of North Carolina. 

Daisy is owned by Rebecca Beasley and Bhubo is owned by Ashwin Sakhardande. The human experiments in the study were supported by a grant from the National Eye Institute.

Bhubo, shown with his owner Ashwin Sakhardande, prepares for his video-watching session in an fMRI scanner. The dog's ears are taped to hold in ear plugs that muffle the noise of the fMRI scanner.

CREDIT

Emory Canine Cognitive Neuroscience Lab.


Clip of video used in project (VIDEO)

BEING A FRUIT FLY IS DEPRESSING

Towards a better understanding of depression

Researchers at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz examine ways of alleviating depressive states using the Drosophila fruit fly as a model

Peer-Reviewed Publication

JOHANNES GUTENBERG UNIVERSITAET MAINZ

drosophila 

IMAGE: EXPOSURE TO SUGAR AND ACTIVATION OF THE REWARD PATHWAY CAN RELIEVE DEPRESSION-LIKE STATES IN THE DROSOPHILA FRUIT FLY. view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO/©: TIM HERMANNS

Human beings and fruit flies have very little in common – at first sight. However, studying these flies it is in fact possible to find out more about human nature, particularly when it comes to depressive disorders. It is on this basis that scientists at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) are attempting to gain a better understanding of depression-like states and thus improve means of treating them. The results were published recently in the renowned journal Current Biology.

Natural substances used in traditional Asian medicine could prove beneficial

"We have been looking at the effects of natural substances used in traditional Asian medicine, such as in Ayurveda, in our Drosophila fly model," explained Professor Roland Strauss of the JGU Institute of Developmental Biology and Neurobiology (IDN). "Some of these could have an anti-depressive potential or prophylactically strengthen resilience to chronic stress, so that a depression-like state might not even develop." The researchers intend, among other things, to demonstrate the efficacy of these substances, to identify their optimal formulations, and to isolate the actual active substances in pure form from the original plant material. In the long run, these might be marketed as drugs. But there is still a long way to go – after all, this is basic research.

"In the Drosophila model we can pinpoint exactly where these substances are active because we are able to analyze the entire signaling chain," Strauss pointed out. "Furthermore, every stage in the signaling pathway can also be proven." The researchers subject the flies to a mild form of recurrent stress, such as irregular phases of vibration of the substrate. This treatment results in the development of a depression-like state (DLS) in the flies, i.e., they move more slowly, do not stop to examine unexpectedly encountered sugar, and – unlike their more relaxed counterparts – are less willing to climb wide gaps. How does their behavior change when the flies receive the various natural substances? The results depend decisively on the preparation of each natural substance – for example, whether it has been extracted with water or alcohol.

Evening rewards can ameliorate depression

The research team has also discovered that if they reward the flies for 30 minutes on the evening of a stressful day, by offering them food with a higher sugar content than usual, or by activating the reward signaling pathway, this can prevent the development of a DLS. But what happens when the flies get a sugar reward? It was already known that the flies have sugar receptors on their tarsi, i.e., the lower part of their legs, and their proboscis, while the end of the signaling pathway at which serotonin is released onto the mushroom body had also been located. The mushroom body is a center for associative learning in flies, equivalent to the human hippocampus.

The researchers' investigations showed that the pathway was considerably more complex than anticipated. Three different neurotransmitter systems have to be activated until the serotonin deficiency at the mushroom body, which is present in flies in a DLS, is compensated for by reward. One of these three systems is the dopaminergic system, which also signals reward in humans. In view of these findings, however, human beings should not assume that it would be a good idea to consume foods with a high sugar content accordingly. Flies perceive sweetness as a reward, whereas humans can achieve the same effect by other and more healthy means.

Boosting resilience by preventing depression

In addition, the researchers decided to look for resilience factors in the fly genome. Just like humans, Drosophila flies have an individual genetic make-up – no two flies are identical in this respect. For this reason, the team intends to find out whether and how the genomes of flies that are able to better cope with stress differ from those that develop a DLS in response to exposure to recurrent mild stress. The hope is that in the future it will be possible to diagnose genetic susceptibility to depression in humans – and then treat this with the natural substances that are also being investigated during the project.

 

Related links:
https://idn.biologie.uni-mainz.de/ – Institute of Developmental Biology and Neurobiology (IDN) at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

Read more:
https://www.uni-mainz.de/presse/aktuell/9199_ENG_HTML.php – press release "Memory research: Fruit flies learn their body size once for an entire lifetime" (21 Aug. 2019) ;
https://www.uni-mainz.de/presse/aktuell/4349_ENG_HTML.php – press release "Short-term memory in fruit flies shows age-related decline" (14 March 2018) ;
https://www.uni-mainz.de/presse/aktuell/562_ENG_HTML.php – press release "A backup copy in the central brain: How fruit flies form orientation memory" (7 March 2017)

Differential impacts of adult trees on offspring and non-offspring recruits in a subtropical forest

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

Recruitment pattern shifts across life stages for offspring of Castanopsis eyrei. 

IMAGE: THE FIGURES ARE THE OBSERVED AND EXPECTED SAPLING RECRUITMENT DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATED FROM THE SEEDLING DISTRIBUTION (A) AND JUVENILE RECRUITMENT DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATED FROM THE SAPLING DISTRIBUTION (B). THESE SHOW THAT THE PEAK RECRUITMENT DISTANCES OF OFFSPRING SHIFT AWAY FROM MOTHER TREES OVER LIFE STAGES, IMPLYING A HIGHER MORTALITY RATE FOR SEEDLINGS RECRUITING NEAR THEIR MOTHER TREES. view more 

CREDIT: ©SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

This study is led by Dr. Keping Ma and Dr. Yu Liang (Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences). An important mechanism promoting species coexistence is conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD), which inhibits conspecific neighbors by accumulating host-specific enemies near adult trees and thus promoting species coexistence by freeing up space for heterospecific species. Natural enemies may be genotype-specific. Whether within-species genetic relatedness between seedlings and adult neighbours regulates the strength of CNDD is one of the keys explaining the mechanism of species coexistence. However, this remains largely unexplored in natural forests due to the difficulty in assessing the parent-offspring relationship between individuals within natural populations.

Recently, a study from Dr. Keping Ma group, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences was conducted in a 24-ha subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest dynamics plot. Totally 3002 individuals of the most dominant tree species Castanopsis eyrei were sampled and 12 microsatellite markers were used to identify the parent-offspring relationship to estimate the effects of adult-seedling genetic relatedness on seedling recruitment.

The results show that 1) peak recruitment distances of offspring shift away from mother trees over life stages. Offspring have significantly lower recruitment efficiencies in the vicinity of mother trees. 2) Recruitment efficiency (proxy of survival probability) of offspring compared with non-offspring near adult trees during the seedling-sapling transition, suggesting genotype-dependent interactions drive tree demographic dynamics. 3) The genetic similarity between individuals of same cohort decreased in late life history stages, indicating genetic-relatedness-dependent tree mortality throughout ontogeny.

Overall, the results indicate that the strength of CNDD and population dynamics depend on both genetic relatedness and spatial distance to conspecific adults, implying genotype-specific natural enemies may be a key driver. Further research on the interaction between genotype-specific enemies and their host plants is essential to fully understand the underlying mechanisms of CNDD.

See the article:

Differential impacts of adult trees on offspring and non-offspring recruits in a subtropical forest

http://engine.scichina.com/doi/10.1007/s11427-021-2148-7


The figures show the recruitment efficiencies (RE, the recruit ratio of early life stage to the later) of offspring and nonoffspring during seedling–sapling (A) and sapling–juvenile (B) transitions along the distance from the focal trees for Castanopsis eyrei. These suggest higher survival chances for offspring when recruit far from their mother trees during seedling–sapling transition.

CREDIT

©Science China Press

Diet could play a role in cognitive function across diverse races and ethnicities

New research in a diverse study population finds that blood metabolites related to sugars were associated with older adults’ global cognitive health

Peer-Reviewed Publication

BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL

Dietary choices and their consequences may certainly influence cognitive function. A new study led by investigators at Brigham and Women's Hospital, a founding member of the Mass General Brigham healthcare system, along with outside collaborators expands on previously published work (focused on Puerto Rican individuals in the U.S.) by including additional races and ethnicities. The team found that certain plasma metabolites—substances created when the body breaks down food—were associated with global cognitive function scores across the diverse set of races and ethnicities. Their results are published in Alzheimer's & Dementia: The Journal of the Alzheimer's Association.

“Our study has huge strengths in expanding the sample size and in adding demographics compared to what previous research has done,” said Tamar Sofer, PhD, and director of the Biostatistics Core Program in Sleep Medicine Epidemiology and a member of the Division of Sleep and Circadian Disorders at the Brigham. “It also illustrates that studies that begin by focusing on minorities can give rise to insights that may be beneficial to other populations. We hope our findings will help people in making specific nutritional choices and in improving their cognitive health.”

Nowadays, researchers can discover biomarkers associated with health changes and diseases by utilizing approaches like metabolomic profiling, which can survey thousands of metabolites within blood samples. An initial study in Boston looking at older adults of Puerto Rican descent found a series of metabolites that were associated with measured cognitive functions. Building off that work, Brigham researchers tested metabolite-cognitive function associations in 2,222 U.S. Hispanic/Latinx adults from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL), and in 1,365 Europeans and 478 African Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) Study. They then applied Mendelian Randomization (MR) analyses to determine causal associations between the metabolites and cognitive function, as well as between a Mediterranean diet and cognitive function.

The team discovered that six metabolites were consistently associated with a lower global cognitive function across all of the studies. Four of them were sugars or derivatives of sugars. Another metabolite, beta-cryptoxanthin, was associated with a higher global cognitive function in the HCHS/SOL and is also strongly correlated with fruit consumption.  

“It is possible that these metabolites are biomarkers of a more direct relationship between diet and cognitive function,” said lead author Einat Granot‐Hershkovitz, PhD, who worked on this study as a postdoctoral fellow in Sofer’s lab at the Brigham.

Diet itself can be an important source of many metabolites, including some with positive or negative associations with cognitive function. In this study, the Mediterranean diet score was associated with higher levels of beta-cryptoxanthin, which was positively associate with cognitive function. The Mediterranean diet was also negatively associated with the levels of other metabolites, which were associated with lower cognitive function. Previous research has also shown that adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with cognitive benefits.

While the study did have limitations like its cross-sectional, observational design which limited conclusions about the potential influence of modifying metabolite levels on cognitive function (causal inference), the researchers attempted to use MR analyses to account for unmeasured confounding and establish some level of causal inference. Their results showed weak causal effects between specific metabolites and global cognitive function. The researchers recommend that future studies assess metabolite associations with cognitive function and work to evaluate whether observed associations indeed indicate that changes in diet – manifesting in changing metabolite levels – can improve cognitive health.

“While the causal effect seen in our study may be weak, repeated research has shown that the Mediterranean diet is associated with better health outcomes, including cognitive health,” said Sofer. “Our study further supports the importance of a healthy diet towards safeguarding cognitive function, consistent across races and ethnicities.”

Disclosures: Co-author Bruce Kristal is the inventor of general metabolomics-related IP that has been licensed to Metabolon via Weill Medical College of Cornell University and for which he receives royalty payments via Weill Medical College of Cornell University. He also consults for and has a small equity interest in the company. Metabolon offers biochemical profiling services and is developing molecular diagnostic assays detecting and monitoring disease. Metabolon has no rights or proprietary access to the research results presented and/or new IP generated under these grants/studies.

Funding: The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos is a collaborative study supported by contracts from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (HHSN268201300001I / N01-HC-65233, HHSN268201300004I / N01-HC-65234, HHSN268201300002I / N01-HC-65235, HHSN268201300003I / N01- HC-65236, HHSN268201300005I / N01-HC-65237). The following Institutes/Centers/Offices have contributed to the HCHS/SOL through a transfer of funds to the NHLBI: National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities, National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders, National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, NIH Institution-Office of Dietary Supplements. Additionally, this work was supported by the National Institute on Aging (R21AG070644, R01AG048642, RF1AG054548, RF1AG061022, and R21AG056952, P30AG062429 and P30AG059299). Support for metabolomics data was provided by the JLH Foundation (Houston, Texas). The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study has been funded in whole or in part with Federal funds from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services under contract numbers (HHSN268201700001I, HHSN268201700002I, HHSN268201700003I, HHSN268201700004I, and HHSN268201700005I).
 

Paper Cited: Granot-Hershkovitz et al. “Plasma metabolites associated with cognitive function across race/ethnicities affirming the importance of healthy nutrition.” Alzheimer’s & Dementia DOI: 10.1002/alz.12786

UBC Okanagan team examines the roots of great wine tourism

Research suggests multi-sensory experiences leave visitors with impressionable aftertaste

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA OKANAGAN CAMPUS

Establishing a sense of place—letting visitors dig right into the soil and smell the earth where the grapes are grown for their wine—is one strategy wineries can use to revive lagging tourism numbers coming out of the pandemic, new research from UBC Okanagan reveals.

Research Associate Darcen Esau and supervisor Dr. Donna Senese, an Associate Professor in Geography in the Irving K. Barber Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, collaborated on new research published recently in the journal Food Quality and Preference.

“It really does come down to ensuring people understand that wine tourism is a multi-sensory experience,” says Esau.

The findings come thanks to research focused on Italy’s renowned Tuscany wine region in 2018.

Finding “slow, small and local” is what wine tourists crave on vacation, and is what makes Tuscany a world leader in wine tourism. It also provides a simple framework others can follow regardless of where in the world they are located.

“We often think of tourism as just being visual, at just looking at the landscape,” Esau says. “It’s about engaging all five of our senses through participation at a working farm and actually getting a little mud under your fingernails, touching the vines, smelling the wine cellar or hearing a tractor drive by.”

The feeling of being part of an agricultural lifestyle can be accomplished through workshops or hands-on activities. It is this participation in agricultural activity that helps vacationing visitors escape, which makes the whole experience feel more authentic and memorable, he explains.

Esau wanted to understand how the sensory experience of wine tourism can create a unique association with a wine destination, providing memorable experiences that are both unique and authentic. Much of that investigating was done during a four-week trip to Castello Sonnino winery in the valleys of Central Italy. Yes, spending a month on a working vacation at a Tuscan winery is part of a class offered at UBCO.

But the winery is also an education centre and provides lessons to the world, Dr. Senese says.

Dr. Senese, who conducts research with UBC’s Wine Research Centre, has led UBC courses in the Chianti wine appellation four times to study the connections between wine, food and tourism in the sustainability of the region’s geography.  

She calls Esau’s findings eye-opening, and further confirmation of what she has held dear for the past 20 years. Respecting place is at the heart of every geographer, like her, and she wants the wine industry to embrace a holistic approach in their thinking.

“It is sensual on all five levels,” she says. “For our students, one of the standouts about visiting a lot of those wineries in Tuscany, and the experiences they have, is the breathtaking passion the people at the wineries have for the product and the place.

“It’s odd to see tears coming to the eyes of students going, ‘Wow. I haven’t had this experience before, and these people are so passionate about what they’re doing.’”

The research comes at an especially important time for a wine industry attempting to recover from a global pandemic. According to a study commissioned by Wine Growers British Columbia and released in mid-August, wine-related tourism in the Okanagan declined to 254,000 visits in 2020 from 1.2 million in 2019.

Dr. Senese is quick to encourage smaller wine regions, such as the Okanagan Valley, to embrace the findings and give their visitors the full sensory experience. After all, many small wineries rely on tourists and local tastings rather than flooding global markets with exported products.

At the same time, the research also applies to all wine regions regardless of their numbers as they seek to drive tourism and subsequent visitation. 

“It really is about downplaying that commercial component and emphasizing the local craftsmanship,” says Esau, “which a large winery can do as well. We see great examples of it throughout the Okanagan.”

 

Global warming doubled the risk for Copenhagen’s historic 2011 cloudburst

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN - FACULTY OF SCIENCE

Cloudburst, Copenhagen, Istedgade 2011-07-02 

IMAGE: CARS STUCK IN FLOODING DURING HISTORIC CLOUDBURST OVER COPENHAGEN, DENMARK ON JULY 2, 2011 view more 

CREDIT: LISA RISAGER FROM DENMARK, CC BY-SA 2.0 <HTTPS://CREATIVECOMMONS.ORG/LICENSES/BY-SA/2.0>, VIA WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

Researchers at the University of Copenhagen, in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), have used detailed weather models to clearly tie increased temperatures to the historic cloudburst over Copenhagen in July of 2011. New method involving counterfactual weather forecasts could link the weather event to global warming for the first time.

It is seven o'clock in the evening on July 2nd, 2011. A cloudburst of historic proportions has just struck north of Copenhagen. On the roof of his car, a taxi driver tries to save himself from the floodwaters as rain and hail plunge into the water and cars floating around him on Lyngbyvej.

On this day, the Danish capital experienced an extreme cloudburst that cost society billions of kroner. At Rigshospitalet, the situation was so dire that the floodwater was centimetres away from destroying the hospital's generators and triggering an evacuation of 1400 patients.

Now, Niels Bohr Institute and DMI researchers have used an unconventional tool to understand 2011’s extreme downpour. Counterfactual history is when you change something about an historical event to analyze the What if? Typically used by historians to understand our past, climate scientists have begun deploying the method in a similar way.

Their experiment demonstrates a clear correlation between the intensity of the cloudburst at the time and the heat in the atmosphere leading up to its occurrence.

"Yes, to put it simply you could say that on a planet one degree warmer, a similar weather situation would have likely prompted the evacuation of Rigshospitalet," says Professor Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen of the Niels Bohr Institute.

Based on historical weather data

By running different weather simulations for the day of the cloudburst based on DMI models, the researchers produced a number of counterfactual weather forecasts. These were divided into five different heat scenarios, each of which allowed the study to show the consequences of atmospheric temperature increases.

For the first time, the researchers were able to show that a century of human-caused increases in temperature doubled the risk of the historic cloudburst and increased its intensity.

The study also demonstrates that with increasing temperatures ahead of us, there will also be an increased risk of similar or even stronger cloudbursts whenever similar weather situations arise in the future.

The model calculations are based on historical weather data and are thereby supported by empirical evidence.

A difficult linkage

Model calculations of Denmark’s future climate, available in DMI's Climate Atlas, clearly show the connection between warming and an increased risk of cloudbursts. But generally, linking specific weather events to climate change remains a scientific challenge.

In the wake of the July 2011 floods, DMI climate scientist Ole Bøssing Christensen explained that the event could not be directly linked to climate change, but that it did align with climate model predictions for the future.

"That was the type of answer we could give a few years back. We simply did not have the tools to say more. This is precisely the challenge that this study sought to address," explains Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen.

According to Rasmus Anker Pedersen, Head of Section at DMI’s Centre for Climate Research, and co-author of the study, the task succeeded.

"The unique aspect of this study is that we can assess the influence of increased global warming on a specific extreme weather event, as opposed to simply comparing the cloudburst with general changes in a warmer climate," he says.

The grid of data points in climate models is not dense enough to work with weather phenomena like cloudbursts, which occur very locally and are the result of a complex set of convergent weather conditions. However, unlike traditional climate models, DMI's weather models are geared to process weather data on a dense and detailed enough scale.

Provides new precision for climate predictions

"If you can operate on the scales that we have been able to here, you capture the processes needed to be able to recreate a specific event in a simulation. It also gives credibility to being able to predict events that have yet to take place," says Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen.

He expects that it will have greater meaning for both everyday citizens and decision-makers when the consequences of climate change become concrete, because they will be able to be linked to known events, such as the 2011 cloudburst. However, the method and use of weather models for climate research also offer perspectives on a global scale.

"While not quite there yet, we expect that there will be enough computing power over the course of the next decade to deploy this type of model on a global scale. This will allow for a whole new level of precision in our climate forecasts. While it will require a lot of processing power, doing so will be relevant. For example, it will help us qualify the preparations needed for climate change adaptation," says Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen.

 

 

Facts: The cloudburst on 2 July 2011, Copenhagen

The most expensive natural catastrophe in Denmark since 1999. Insurance payments amounted to DKK 6.2 billion, divided into approx. 90,000 claims.

In some places, two months worth of precipitation fell in a few hours. In a single day, 135.4 mm fell at Copenhagen’s Botanical Garden. 31 mm fell within ten minutes in the suburb of Ishøj. More than 5,000 lightning strikes were recorded in 3 hours.

The heavy rain and hail caused traffic to come to a standstill in several places in the metropolitan area as roadways became rivers. Several highways were closed for 1-3 days.

Train traffic was disrupted for a week and in some places closed for days, due to everything from flooded stations to lightning strikes on equipment and landslides.

Approximately 10,000 households suffered power outages for up to 12 hours and approximately 50,000 homes lost heating and hot water for up to a week.

 

Facts: What is a cloudburst?

In Denmark, cloudbursts are defined as episodes when more than 15 mm of precipitation falls within a half hour.

Convection is the physical process that causes cloudbursts. Among other things, convection is when lower density, warm air rises.

Warm air, which can be very humid, also draws existing moisture from clouds up to higher altitudes, which creates extreme condensation in the high clouds.

The droplets eventually grow so large that they cannot be held up by the vertical air currents, at which point the clouds suddenly empty their moisture.

 

Facts: How the researchers did it

On the basis of weather information up to and including midnight on 2 July 2011, the researchers simulated the weather around Copenhagen using today's thoroughly tested and accurate DMI weather model.

The scale in these weather models is very accurate. The distance between data points in DMI's model, known as grid size, is about 2.5 km. In comparison, global climate model grid points are no nearer than roughly 50 km apart.

The researchers conducted 13 simulations in a so-called ensemble of forecasts, because weather – and not least thunderstorms – are chaotic events with noise and high unpredictability.

The simulations have been adapted and divided into five heat scenarios: –1 degree (pre-industrial age), 0 (normal in 2011), +1, +2 and +3 degree warmer global temperature.

Smithsonian researchers discover extinct prehistoric reptile that lived among dinosaurs


Discovery sheds light on the tuatara, the last living member of a once-diverse group of reptiles that has almost entirely been supplanted by lizards

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SMITHSONIAN

Artistic interpretation of the new lizard-like reptile Opisthiamimus gregori 

IMAGE: AN ARTISTIC INTERPRETATION OF A NEWLY DISCOVERED EXTINCT SPECIES OF LIZARD-LIKE REPTILE BELONGING TO THE SAME ANCIENT LINEAGE AS NEW ZEALAND’S LIVING TUATARA. THE NEWLY DISCOVERED OPISTHIAMIMUS GREGORI PREYS ON A NOW-EXTINCT WATER BUG (MORRISONNEPA JURASSICA), WHILE IN THE BACKGROUND THE PREDATORY DINOSAUR ALLOSAURUS JIMMADSENI GUARDS ITS NEST. THE SCENE IS THE¬ FLOODPLAIN OF A RIVER IN LATE JURASSIC WYOMING, APPROXIMATELY 150 MILLION YEARS AGO. A TEAM OF SCIENTISTS DESCRIBE THE NEW SPECIES, WHICH ONCE INHABITED JURASSIC NORTH AMERICA ABOUT 150 MILLION YEARS AGO ALONGSIDE DINOSAURS LIKE STEGOSAURUS AND ALLOSAURUS, IN A PAPER PUBLISHED TODAY IN THE JOURNAL OF SYSTEMATIC PALAEONTOLOGY. IN LIFE, THIS PREHISTORIC REPTILE WOULD HAVE BEEN ABOUT 16 CENTIMETERS (ABOUT 6 INCHES) FROM NOSE TO TAIL AND WOULD FIT CURLED UP IN THE PALM OF AN ADULT HUMAN HAND. THE DISCOVERY COMES FROM A HANDFUL OF SPECIMENS INCLUDING AN EXTRAORDINARILY COMPLETE AND WELL-PRESERVED FOSSIL SKELETON EXCAVATED FROM A SITE CENTERED AROUND AN ALLOSAURUS NEST IN NORTHERN WYOMING’S MORRISON FORMATION. view more 

CREDIT: JULIUS CSOTONYI FOR THE SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION

Smithsonian researchers have discovered a new extinct species of lizard-like reptile that belongs to the same ancient lineage as New Zealand’s living tuatara. A team of scientists, including the National Museum of Natural History’s curator of Dinosauria Matthew Carrano and research associate David DeMar Jr. as well as University College London and Natural History Museum, London scientific associate Marc Jones, describe the new species Opisthiamimus gregori, which once inhabited Jurassic North America about 150 million years ago alongside dinosaurs like Stegosaurus and Allosaurus, in a paper published today in the Journal of Systematic Palaeontology. In life, this prehistoric reptile would have been about 16 centimeters (about 6 inches) from nose to tail—and would fit curled up in the palm of an adult human hand—and likely survived on a diet of insects and other invertebrates.

“What’s important about the tuatara is that it represents this enormous evolutionary story that we are lucky enough to catch in what is likely its closing act,” Carrano said. “Even though it looks like a relatively simple lizard, it embodies an entire evolutionary epic going back more than 200 million years.”

The discovery comes from a handful of specimens including an extraordinarily complete and well-preserved fossil skeleton excavated from a site centered around an Allosaurus nest in northern Wyoming’s Morrison Formation. Further study of the find could help reveal why this animal’s ancient order of reptiles were winnowed down from being diverse and numerous in the Jurassic to just New Zealand’s tuatara surviving today.

The tuatara looks a bit like a particularly stout iguana, but the tuatara and its newly discovered relative are in fact not lizards at all. They are actually rhynchocephalians, an order that diverged from lizards at least 230 million years ago, Carrano said.

In their Jurassic heyday, rhynchocephalians were found nearly worldwide, came in sizes large and small, and filled ecological roles ranging from aquatic fish hunters to bulky plant munchers. But for reasons that still are not fully understood, rhynchocephalians all but disappeared as lizards and snakes grew to be the more common and more diverse reptiles across the globe.

This evolutionary chasm between lizards and rhynchocephalians helps explain the tuatara’s odd features such as teeth fused to the jaw bone, a unique chewing motion that slides the lower jaw back and forth like a saw blade, a 100-year-plus lifespan and a tolerance for colder climates.

Following O. gregori’s formal description, Carrano said the fossil has been added to the museum’s collections where it will remain available for future study, perhaps one day helping researchers figure out why the tuatara is all that remains of the rhynchocephalians, while lizards are now found across the globe.

“These animals may have disappeared partly because of competition from lizards but perhaps also due to global shifts in climate and changing habitats,” Carrano said. “It’s fascinating when you have the dominance of one group giving way to another group over evolutionary time, and we still need more evidence to explain exactly what happened, but fossils like this one are how we will put it together.”

The researchers named the new species after museum volunteer Joseph Gregor who spent hundreds of hours meticulously scraping and chiseling the bones from a block of stone that first caught museum fossil preparator Pete Kroehler’s eye back in 2010.

“Pete is one of those people who has a kind of X-ray vision for this sort of thing,” Carrano said. “He noticed two tiny specks of bone on the side of this block and marked it to be brought back with no real idea what was in it. As it turns out, he hit the jackpot.”

The fossil is almost entirely complete, with the exception of the tail and parts of the hind legs. Carrano said that such a complete skeleton is rare for small prehistoric creatures like this because their frail bones were often destroyed either before they fossilized or as they emerge from an eroding rock formation in the present day. As a result, rhynchocephalians are mostly known to paleontologists from small fragments of their jaws and teeth.

After Kroehler, Gregor and others had freed as much of the tiny fossil from the rock as was practical given its fragility, the team, led by DeMar, set about scanning the fossil with high-resolution computerized tomography (CT), a method that uses multiple X-ray images from different angles to create a 3D representation of the specimen. The team used three separate CT scanning facilities, including one housed at the National Museum of Natural History, to capture everything they possibly could about the fossil.

Once the fossil’s bones had been digitally rendered with accuracy smaller than a millimeter, DeMar set about reassembling the digitized bones of the skull, some of which were crushed, out of place or missing on one side, using software to eventually create a nearly complete 3D reconstruction. The reconstructed 3D skull now provides researchers an unprecedented look at this Jurassic-age reptile’s head.

Given Opisthiamimus’s diminutive size, tooth shape and rigid skull, it likely ate insects, said DeMar, adding that prey with harder shells such as beetles or water bugs might have also been on the menu. Broadly speaking, the new species looks quite a bit like a miniaturized version of its only surviving relative (tuataras are about five times longer).

“Such a complete specimen has huge potential for making comparisons with fossils collected in the future and for identifying or reclassifying specimens already sitting in a museum drawer somewhere,” DeMar said. “With the 3D models we have, at some point we could also do studies that use software to look at this critter’s jaw mechanics.”

Funding and support for this research were provided by the Smithsonian and the Australian Research Council.