Sunday, September 18, 2022

MONOPOLY CAPITALI$M

How media and T-Mobile got the better of AT&T and Verizon

With the stock market in a deep funk (and getting funkier by the day) investors are looking for safe places to park their money, like stocks that pay healthy dividends. Which would be telecom stocks, right?

Maybe not.

The truth is that telecom stocks — there are really only three biggies these days; AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and T-Mobile (TMUS) — aren’t what they used to be. Some say that has to do with their disastrous forays into the world of media, but it’s probably more a matter of failed execution and the maturation of the business.

First the media math. Remember that within a two-week period in May of last year, both AT&T and Verizon jettisoned WarnerMedia and Yahoo, their respective content properties, (yes, the latter owns my employer, Yahoo Finance). These moves were made to rid the data-driven, left-brain telcos of frivolous, flowery — never mind costly — media businesses. Getting out of content, the thinking went, would allow the telephone companies’ distribution businesses to run full-out and unfettered, which would presumably be a boon to shareholders.

“My days are a little bit more predictable than they were a couple of years ago,” AT&T CEO John Stankey told Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi this week. “That's one of the reasons why we made the decision to do what we're doing. I didn't think I could do my best work or the broader management team could do their best work if we were trying to fight too many battles on too many different fronts. We are a more focused company today. We're executing each week better than we were the week before, but we still have room to go.”

BURBANK, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 29: John Stankey, President & Chief Operating Officer of AT&T and Chief Executive Officer of WarnerMedia, speaks onstage at HBO Max WarnerMedia Investor Day Presentation at Warner Bros. Studios on October 29, 2019 in Burbank, California. (Photo by Presley Ann/Getty Images for WarnerMedia)
John Stankey speaks onstage at HBO Max WarnerMedia Investor Day Presentation at Warner Bros. Studios on October 29, 2019 in Burbank, California. (Photo by Presley Ann/Getty Images for WarnerMedia)

For sure on that last point.

Since May 15, 2021, roughly when these announcements were made, Verizon’s stock is down 18% and AT&T is down 19%. The S&P is only off 4%. The stocks still underperform the market after factoring in their 6% plus dividend yields.

Perhaps that’s surprising given these companies made game-changing announcements — particularly in the case of AT&T, as its divestment of content was a much bigger move relative to the size of its overall business. It’s also surprising since both AT&T and Verizon stocks sport generous dividend yields, which ideally would bolster the shares during a market downturn.

Did deep-sixing the content businesses help the telcos’ stocks? No, it did not.

Before we get more into that, let’s first consider T-Mobile, once ridiculed (and still loathed) by the Big Two, for its over-the-top former CEO, John Legere, and its garish (yet effective) pink branding. Legere stepped down two years ago, but, guess what, T-Mobile is now ascendent if not triumphant. Barron’s recently pointed out that T-Mobile has a bigger market cap ($177 billion) than Verizon ($173 billion) or AT&T ($119 billion). True, both Verizon and AT&T are more leveraged, so that the overall enterprise value of the two older companies is bigger. But the fact remains that T-Mobile stock has trounced Verizon and AT&T — and the market — over the past five years.

T-Mobile US Inc Chief Executive Officer John Legere arrives at Manhattan Federal Court during the T-Mobile/Sprint federal case in New York, U.S., December12, 2019.  REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
John Legere arrives at Manhattan Federal Court during the T-Mobile/Sprint federal case in New York, U.S., December12, 2019. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

Why is that? In a word, execution. T-Mobile merged with Sprint, priced aggressively to build market share, and most importantly, improved its network.

“TMUS 5g network is probably 18 months ahead of AT&T and Verizon's, if not a little more,” says Keith Snyder, an industry analyst at CFRA. “[AT&T’s and Verizon’s] balance sheets are bad. Those two companies combined have about $300 billion that they need to get off their balance sheet at some point. Meanwhile, they need to spend very heavily on network deployments and new spectrum.”

And another thing: “Verizon's stock price is lower than it was 20 years ago. AT&T's stock price is lower than it was 20 years ago,” says veteran industry analyst Craig Moffett. “Granted, they've paid dividends, but the total return by owning those stocks has been less than what you would have gotten from a corporate bond."

Someone’s made money here, though. As this 2017 McKinsey report points out, internet giants Amazon, Google and Facebook have built up massive businesses on the networks of AT&T and Verizon. The combined market caps of those three tech giants — $3 trillion — is 6.4 times that of the three telcos' $469 billion.

So did AT&T and Verizon blow it by not being able to marry content with distribution? Moffett thinks that’s a red herring.

“I'm not sure ‘the tug and sway between content and distribution’ has ever been a terribly relevant thesis,” Moffett says. “It's one of those things that people like to talk about, but it doesn't really have all that much real-world application. Partially the problem with trying to be vertically integrated is that the law frowns on it. So there's limitations on what you could do. You could theoretically make content exclusive and that sort of thing, but as carriers you generally aren't allowed to do that. So there isn't really any particular strategic logic for being vertically integrated.”

To Moffett it’s more a matter of two companies with declining businesses and bloated balance sheets that will struggle to pay their dividend down the road. AT&T already cut its dividend as part of its divestiture of the media business earlier this year.

As for the companies’ path forward: “They're not going to go bankrupt,” Snyder says. “They're established, their businesses are generating cash. It's just that they need to rethink what they're doing.” Moffett offers a more succinct prognosis: “It's terrible.”

On the other hand, both analysts are sanguine about T-Mobile, which they say will continue to grow at the incumbents’ expense.

Is there any optimism to be had AT&T or Verizon? “The bull case for Verizon or AT&T is that expectations are so low that the stocks have nowhere to go but up,” Moffett says. “And as long as they maintain the dividend, that thesis could perhaps work.” But then he adds: “The problem is, as we've seen so often with these companies, if they can't generate any growth, then the sustainability of the dividend eventually is in doubt.”

For Verizon and AT&T, it’s not a great position to be in. Turns out even big splashy media deals couldn't help them.

BOURGEOIS ECONOMICS

Hot core: Canada may need a recession to cool down inflation

RENT CONTROLS WILL COOL INFLATION

FILE PHOTO: A person shops at the North Mart grocery store in Iqaluit

By Julie Gordon and Fergal Smith

OTTAWA (Reuters) - The underlying pressures driving inflation in Canada are likely to peak in the fourth quarter of this year, economists told Reuters, though most see signs fast rising prices are becoming entrenched and warn a recession may be needed to avoid a spiral.

Canada's inflation data for August will be released on Tuesday, with analysts forecasting the headline rate will edge down to 7.3%, from 7.6% in July and a four-decade high of 8.1% in June.

But all eyes will be on the three core measures of inflation - CPI Common, CPI Median and CPI Trim - which taken together are seen as a better indicator of underlying price pressures. The average of the three hit a record high of 5.3% in July.

Six of eight economists surveyed by Reuters see core inflation peaking in the fourth quarter as underlying domestic and global pressures start to ease, though the path back to the 2% target will not be brisk.

"Rapidly cooling growth, the pullback in housing prices, and less pressure on supply chains will help cap core inflation relatively soon," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

"However, we believe that it will be sticky, and will descend only slowly through 2023," he added.

The broadening of price increases, increased wage settlements, as well as rising consumer and business inflation expectations are signs that inflation is becoming more entrenched in the economy, economists told Reuters. Six of eight said they see signs of entrenchment.

That is an outcome that the Bank of Canada has hoped to avoid, saying it would require more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation back under control.

The central bank has already raised interest rates by 300 basis points in just six months to 3.25% - a 14-year high and the loftiest policy rate among central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies.

Still, economists don't expect any shift to a wage-price spiral to be permanent, particularly if the economy slows down.

"We think aggressive interest rate hikes will be followed by a recession next year ... which would prevent expectations from coming fully unanchored," said Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

Economists at Desjardins Group and Oxford Economics also foresee aggressive rate hikes leading to a recession, though they cast it as a mild downturn.

For its parts, the Bank of Canada says it can slow growth without tanking the economy.

"The bank still sees a path to a soft landing. That's still our objective. We need to cool the economy to get inflation back to target," Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers told reporters earlier this month.

As for headline inflation, the central bank has it returning to 2% in 2024. Most economists agree with that timeframe or think it could happen sooner.

"We think that'll be a 2024 story," said Beata Caranci, chief economist at TD Securities. "But there should be compelling evidence that the data is trending in that direction within the second half of 2023."

(Reporting by Julie Gordon in Ottawa and Fergal Smith in Toronto; Editing by Daniel Wallis)

China Steps Up Robotics Push as Workforce Shrinks

 Jason Douglas, WSJ
 SEPTEMBER 18, 2022


China put in nearly as many robots in its factories final 12 months as the remainder of the world, accelerating a rush to automate and consolidate its manufacturing dominance at the same time as its working-age inhabitants shrinks.

Shipments of business robots to China in 2021 rose 45% in contrast with the earlier 12 months to greater than 243,000, in response to new information seen by The Wall Street Journal from the International Federation of Robotics, a robotics trade commerce group.

China accounted for slightly below half of all installations of industrial quality industrial robots final 12 months, reinforcing the nation’s standing because the No. 1 marketplace for robotic producers worldwide. The IFR information exhibits China put in practically twice as many new robots as did factories all through the Americas and Europe.

Part of the reason for China’s speedy automation is that it’s merely catching up with richer friends. The world’s second-largest financial system lags behind the U.S. and manufacturing powerhouses reminiscent of Japan, Germany and South Korea within the prevalence of robots on manufacturing strains.

The speedy automation additionally displays a rising recognition in China that its factories have to adapt because the nation’s provide of low cost labor dwindles and wages rise.

The United Nations expects India to surpass China because the world’s most-populous nation as quickly as subsequent 12 months. The inhabitants of these in China age 20 to 64—the majority of the workforce—may need already peaked, U.N. projections present, and is anticipated to fall steeply after 2030, as China’s inhabitants ages and birthrates keep low.

By embracing extra robots, China’s factories can plug a widening labor market hole and preserve prices down, making it much less advantageous for Western firms to shift manufacturing to different rising markets or their very own residence nations.

Since China can now not depend on an increasing workforce to drive financial development, automation represents the surest means, in response to many economists, for it to boost the productiveness of the employees it has, which is important if China is to flee the ranks of middle-income nations.

Data from the Conference Board exhibits that output an hour labored in China in 2021 was 1 / 4 of the typical of the Group of Seven superior economies and a fifth of the extent within the U.S. Moreover, China’s productiveness development has slowed lately. After rising at a 9% annual tempo on common between 2000 and 2010, output an hour labored in China grew 7.4% a 12 months within the subsequent decade.

“You can’t wait until you run out of people to start dealing with it,” mentioned Andrew Harris, deputy chief economist at Fathom Consulting in London.

Despite commerce tensions with the U.S. and rising Western anxiousness over a perceived overreliance on Chinese manufactured items, China continues to be the world’s manufacturing facility flooring, accounting for 29% of world manufacturing, in response to U.N. information.



Many youthful staff are shunning manufacturing facility work for more-flexible jobs in China’s increasing providers sector, and the nation’s lengthy growth in inside migration is ending. There have been round 147 million folks employed in China’s manufacturing sector in 2021, in response to estimates from the International Labor Organization, down from a 2012 peak of 169 million. Over the identical interval, services-sector employment rose 32% to an estimated 365 million, in response to the ILO.

In addition to serving to to resolve pressures from these shifts, automation might help Chinese factories focus extra on higher-end manufacturing duties that require extra precision than most people can handle, whereas the robots themselves have gotten cheaper and extra adaptable.

Dobot, a Shenzhen, China-based maker of small robotic arms utilized in trade and schooling, developed a robotic system for a buyer in China that manufactures cordless earphones for

shoppingmode Apple Inc.

The system makes use of robotic arms to put in magnets within the earphone case, a course of that used to contain 4 folks. The human group might full round 650 circumstances in an hour; the robotic arms can handle 800, mentioned Xie Junjie, product director at Dobot.

“Automation is an inevitable trend,” he mentioned.

The IFR information exhibits industrial-robot installations worldwide rose 27% in 2021 from 2020, to 486,800. Growth in shipments in 2020 was little modified in contrast with the earlier 12 months, because the pandemic dented funding.


A Yaskawa robotic arm on a manufacturing line at a toothbrush
 manufacturing facility in China as an worker examines the output.
Photo: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg News

The U.S. and different elements of the Americas added 49,400 robots in 2021, up 27% for the 12 months, and installations in Europe rebounded 15% to 78,000.

While the time period “industrial robot” encompasses a variety of merchandise, the machines have to be programmable, multipurpose gadgets utilized in automated industrial functions so as to be included in IFR’s statistics.

The preliminary information from China exhibits installations by electronics producers rose 30% in 2021 as exporters sought to maintain up with booming Western demand for client items. Other sectors which are vital traders in robotics embody auto makers and producers of plastics, rubber, metals and equipment. Robot installations in China’s automotive sector have been up nearly 90% final 12 months, IFR information exhibits

Though China’s homegrown robotics sector is increasing, most industrial robots put in in China final 12 months have been made abroad, primarily in Japan.

Manabu Okahisa, who runs the China unit of the Japanese robotic maker Yaskawa Electric Corp., mentioned the tempo of China’s robotic adoption displays firms’ willingness to experiment with new know-how.

“It is a manufacturing powerhouse,” he mentioned. “When a new thing comes up, they give it a try promptly.”

Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group Co., a state-owned maker of heavy development equipment reminiscent of loaders, concrete mixers and excavators, started experimenting with large-scale automation as early as 2012, mentioned Liu Hui, supervisor of good manufacturing on the firm’s earthmover equipment enterprise.

An enormous motive for the corporate’s automation drive has been the rising problem of attracting staff, mentioned Zou Yajun, the unit’s manufacturing director.

Making a loader earlier than automation required groups of 11 folks working two 10-hour shifts to type round 10,000 parts. Now, two staff supervising a robotic can do the identical job in a single shift, Mr. Liu mentioned.

The variety of staff on the manufacturing line is down 56% from earlier than automation, whereas day by day total manufacturing capability is 50% larger.

The staff that stay are higher paid as a result of they’re extra expert, Mr. Liu mentioned. In the previous, a welder solely wanted to know the right way to weld.

“Now, they need to know the automation technology and how to operate the intelligent equipment in addition to the welding technology,” he mentioned.

Jay Huang, director of Greater China analysis at Bernstein, mentioned the economics of China’s shifting labor market and bettering robotic know-how imply China is probably going coming into a robot-adoption growth. He tasks that China can have between 3.2 million and 4.2 million industrial robots engaged on manufacturing strains by 2030, up from round a million at present.

China’s pandemic expertise has underlined the benefits of automation, he mentioned, as widespread lockdowns have triggered employees shortages that severely disrupted manufacturing facility output.

“Manufacturers experienced firsthand that if you are not automated, you can’t produce,” mentioned Mr. Huang.

Just because the U.S. and different Western nations have begun questioning their perceived overreliance on China for manufactured items, Beijing below

Xi Jinping has advocated lowering China’s reliance on abroad markets and increasing home firms’ share of world provide chains.

Susanne Bieller, IFR’s normal secretary, mentioned labor-market pressures imply robots will likely be essential to realizing that purpose, too.

“China can’t do that without automating,” she mentioned.


Automation is regarded by many economists because the surest means for China to boost the productiveness of its staff.
Photo: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg News

—Chieko Tsuneoka in Tokyo and Grace Zhu in Beijing contributed to this text.

Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com

Copyright ©2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 

Source: www.wsj.com

Goldman Sachs Faces Fed Scrutiny of Money-Losing Marcus Consumer Unit


(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s six-year foray into consumer banking -- the unit dubbed Marcus -- is the focus of a new review at the Federal Reserve.

Fed officials have been looking into the Wall Street giant’s online-banking platform aimed at retail customers, according to people with knowledge of the matter. For at least several weeks, they’ve been peppering Goldman management with questions and follow-ups in a process that’s still continuing, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential information.

The review goes beyond the central bank’s regular oversight of the firm, and is distinct from its more frequent industrywide looks at business lines of interest. By zeroing in on Marcus, the central bank is taking stock of a division that’s relatively new and growing substantially inside a company without much history dealing with the general public.

While it’s not indicative of any wrongdoing, it is another headache as Chief Executive Officer David Solomon marches ahead with his ambition to expand Goldman -- a merchant of high finance -- in the world of consumers: soaking up deposits, issuing credit cards and, at some point, offering checking accounts to the masses. The examination puts yet more pressure on the bank’s leaders to showcase their command of the business and tighten controls.

Representatives for Goldman Sachs and the Fed declined to comment.

The bank has been signaling recently that it’s taking a more cautious approach toward Marcus’s growth. Behind the scenes, Goldman President John Waldron has assumed a bigger role in overseeing the business in an attempt to bring expenses in line and stanch losses.

At mid-year, the bank’s own internal forecast estimated the business would post a record loss of more than $1.2 billion this year.

The cash burn has gotten all the more painful in recent months as a pandemic-era surge in Wall Street deals subsides, making Marcus a fraught topic among Goldman managers. Investment bankers and traders bracing for job cuts or lower bonuses are competing with a division that was once supposed to break even in 2022, but has instead eaten up more than $4 billion since inception in 2016. That’s not including Goldman’s acquisition of installment-loans provider GreenSky Inc. in a deal initially valued at more than $2.2 billion last year at what turned out to be the peak of the market for fintech ventures.

With business lines such as investment banking, capital markets and asset management cooling off, analysts predict the firm will post a more-than 40% drop in net income this year. The shares have tumbled 15% since 2022 began amid a broader selloff of financial stocks.

The earnings slump has Goldman tightening its belt. The bank’s leaders set aside 31% less for compensation in the first half. And in recent weeks, they have been getting ready to resume an annual culling cycle that was paused during the pandemic, sketching out plans to eliminate several hundred roles.

Waldron’s efforts to put Marcus back on track are being welcomed outside the bank. Credit Suisse Group AG analyst Susan Katzke wrote in a note last month that she was assured by Goldman management that, even as the firm remains committed to such growth initiatives, it’s shifting the emphasis toward wealth management and less on retail banking. The Waldron-led team promised a narrower focus on consumer banking after acknowledging the firm “tried to do too much at once,” according to the report.

Some key executives who helped get the consumer business off the ground are no longer at the company. They include former Chief Financial Officer Stephen Scherr, Harit Talwar, a consumer-banking veteran who was brought on for his retail know-how, and Omer Ismail, who left to run a new banking venture backed by Walmart Inc.

Other authorities have also shown interest in Marcus. Goldman last month disclosed a probe by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau into the company’s credit-card practices, including how the lender resolves incorrect bills and processes refunds. Such investigations have typically resulted in modest fines and operational tweaks that don’t imperil the business.

But for Goldman, it’s an unwelcome intrusion into a marquee partnership with Apple Inc., a major client that trumpeted its partnership with the lender when the two firms expanded into credit cards in 2019.

Facebook stock falls to yet another ignominious level

Emily Bary - Friday


Facebook was a member of the exclusive $1 trillion club a year ago, but it’s fallen a long way since then.



Facebook stock falls to yet another ignominious level© josh edelson/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Now named Meta Platforms Inc. the company saw its market value fall below $400 billion Friday for the first time since Jan. 7, 2019, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Meta’s valuation is 63.5% lower than its Sept. 7, 2021, peak of $1.078 trillion.

Related video: Facebook agrees to settle data privacy lawsuit
Duration 0:56


Meta shares dropped 2.2% Friday, closing the week down 13.5% after registering declines in all five sessions. Friday’s fall brought Meta shares to their lowest close since March 16, 2020, when they finished at $146.01, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Any close below that point would see Meta officially erase all of its pandemic-era stock gains.

Don’t miss: Adobe stock heads for worst week in 20 years as ‘stratospheric’ price for Figma causes doubts

The swift decline in Meta shares in recent months reflects more than just macroeconomic fears. Yes, Meta is exposed to pullbacks in advertiser spending due to a weakening economy, but the company must also contend with TikTok’s rising competitive threat, as well as the lingering impacts of Apple Inc.’s privacy-related changes that affect ad targeting.

Meta is now the 10th most valuable U.S. company by market capitalization, after falling behind Visa Inc. earlier this week. While Meta shares are off 61% over the past 12 months, Visa’s stock has only fallen 14%, and the payments giant’s business has been seen as relatively resilient in the current climate given that overall consumer spending levels remain healthy.


Now Meta risks dropping out of the top-10 entirely: The company finished Friday’s session with a $393.2 billion valuation, while 11th-place Exxon Mobil Corp. ended at $388.5 billion.
(STATE) CAPITALI$M IN CRISIS 

Tycoon Running a Quarter of China’s Copper Trade Is on the Ropes

Alfred Cang and Jack Farchy
Sat, September 17, 2022 



(Bloomberg) -- From a start guarding trains full of metal from thieves on freezing winter nights, He Jinbi built a copper trading house so powerful that it handles one of every four tons imported into China.

A born trader with an infectious sense of humor, the 57-year-old grew Maike Metals International Ltd. through the rough-and-tumble rush for commodities in the early 2000s, to become a key conduit between China’s industrial heartlands and global merchants like Glencore Plc.

Now Maike is suffering a liquidity crisis, and He’s empire is under threat. The ripple effects could be felt across the world: the company handles a million tons a year — a quarter of China’s refined copper imports — making it the largest player in the most important global trade route for the metal, and a major trader on the London Metal Exchange.


With his wide network of contacts giving enviable insight into China’s factories and building sites, He has been a poster child for China’s commodity-fueled boom over two decades — making a fortune from its ravenous demand for raw materials and then plunging it into the red-hot property market.

But this year, Beijing’s restrictive Covid Zero policies have hit both the property market and the copper price hard. After months of rumors, He admitted publicly last month that Maike had asked for help to resolve liquidity issues.

He said the problems are temporary and affected only a small part of his business, but his trading counterparties and creditors are being cautious. Some Chinese domestic traders have suspended new deals, while one of the company’s longest-standing lenders, ICBC Standard Bank Plc, was concerned enough that it moved some copper out of China that had been backing its lending to Maike.

Even if it can secure support from the government and state banks, industry executives say Maike may struggle to maintain its dominant role in the Chinese copper market.

Much as He’s rise was a microcosm of China’s economic boom, his current woes may mark a turning point for commodity markets: the end of an era in which Chinese demand could only go up.

“In some ways Maike’s story is the story of modern China,” said David Lilley, who started dealing with Maike in the 1990s, first as a trader at MG Plc and later as co-founder of trading house and hedge fund Red Kite. “He has skillfully ridden the dynamics of the Chinese economy, but no one was prepared for the Covid lockdowns.”

This account of He’s rise to the pinnacle of China’s commodities industry is based on interviews with business associates, rivals and bankers, many of whom asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the situation.

A spokesperson for Maike declined to comment on this story, but said in response to earlier questions from Bloomberg on Sept. 7: “Our company has been deeply involved in the development of the commodity industry for nearly 30 years. It had maintained a steady development as witnessed by everyone. It will soon resume normal operations and continue to contribute to the development of the industry and the local economy.”

Copper Boom

Born in 1964 in the Chinese province of Shaanxi, He’s first encounter with copper came when he got a job procuring industrial materials for a local firm. As a young man, he was paid to guard cargoes of copper in trains crisscrossing China — which could be a cold job on freezing winter nights.

In 1993, He and several friends established Maike in the western city of Xi’an, known as the capital of China’s first emperor and the location of the iconic Terracotta Army statues. The group took out a loan of 50,000 yuan (about $7,200) to buy and sell mechanical and electrical products. But He’s early encounter with copper had made an impact, and they quickly moved their focus to scrap metal, copper wire and refined copper.

With a personable nature, a broad grin and a light-hearted sense of humor, He was a natural commodity trader whose charisma would help him build a wide network of friends and business contacts.

As China’s economy liberalized, He used his connections to make Maike a middleman between big international traders and China’s burgeoning throng of copper consumers.

In the space of 15 years, China would go from consuming a tenth of the world’s copper supply to 50%, triggering a supercycle of skyrocketing prices for the metal which is used in electrical wires in everything from power cables to air-conditioning units.

Commodities Casino

This was a wild era when, for many, China’s commodity markets were little more than a casino. Groups of traders would team up to bet together, launching ambushes against their opponents on the other side of the market. The bravest players would be nicknamed after the martial art masters of popular novels.

While many traders came and went in these go-go years, He persisted.

“We did a huge amount of business together over twenty years,” said Lilley. “There were times when the Chinese metals trade was a real wild west and he stood out for his honorableness. He would always make good on his word.”

He also had another characteristic essential for a successful commodity trader: an appetite for risk.

His big break came in the early days of the supercycle. In May 2005, China’s metals industry gathered in Shanghai for the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s annual conference. Copper prices had risen sharply, and most of the producers, fabricators and traders in the audience thought they would soon fall. Even China’s mighty State Reserve Bureau had made bearish bets.

They were shocked to hear Barclays analyst Ingrid Sternby predict that copper would hit new highs as Chinese demand exceeded supply. But she was soon proved right, as prices more than doubled in the next 12 months. The SRB’s losses became a national scandal, and most Chinese traders missed the opportunity to cash in on the gains.

He was not among them. Paying close attention to demand from his network of Chinese consumers, he had built up a bullish position and profited handsomely from the global price surge.

It was a pattern he would successfully repeat many times over the years. His preferred strategy involved selling options — on the downside, at the price his Chinese customers were likely to see as a buying opportunity, and on the upside, at a price they were likely to consider too dear.

While he enjoyed some of the trappings of success, people who have known He for many years say he remained down-to-earth even as his net worth swelled to levels that probably made him, at his peak, a dollar billionaire.

In Shanghai, he would regularly have lunch at a restaurant serving cuisine from Xi’an, where he’d eat his favorite steamed cold noodles and fried leek dumplings for 50 yuan ($7).

Financial Flows

The evolution of He’s business mirrored the changes taking place in the Chinese business world. Although he had started simply as a distributor of physical copper, he soon pioneered the growing interconnections between the commodities business and financial markets in China.

As Maike grew to become the country’s top copper importer, He began to utilize the constant flow of metal to raise financing. He could ask for prepayments from his end customers, and also borrow against the increasingly large volumes of copper he was shipping and holding in warehouses. Over the years, the connection between copper and cash became well established, and the ebbs and flows of China’s credit cycle became a key driver of the global market.

He would use money raised from his copper business to speculate on the exchange or, increasingly, invest in China’s booming real estate sector. Starting in around 2011, He built hotels and business centers, and even his own warehouses in Shanghai’s bonded zone.

"In some ways Maike’s story is the story of modern China"

As the state became an ever more dominant force in China’s business world, He turned his focus to investing in his hometown, Xi’an, backing projects under Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.

This year, however, He’s empire started to wobble.

The city of Xi’an faced a month-long lockdown in December and January, and further restrictions in April and July as Covid re-emerged, hurting He’s property investments. His hotels sat almost empty for months, and some commercial tenants simply stopped paying rent.

Maike was one of a number of companies that plunged their fortunes into the property market in the boom years, said Dong Hao, head of the Chaos Ternary Research Institute. “After the sharp turnaround in real estate last year, such companies have encountered various difficulties,” he said.

Nickel Squeeze

The Chinese economy’s wider malaise has also caused the copper price to slump, while at the same time Maike suffered the result of growing caution among banks toward the commodity sector in China. Trust in the industry was hurt by the historic nickel squeeze in March, as well as several scandals involving missing aluminum and copper ores.

In recent weeks, Maike began experiencing difficulties paying for its copper purchases, and several international companies — including BHP Group and Chile’s Codelco — paused sales to Maike and diverted cargoes.

The future is uncertain. He met a group of Chinese banks in late August at a crunch meeting organized by the local Shaanxi government. Maike later said that the banks had agreed to support it, including by offering extensions on existing loans.

But its trading activity has largely ground to a halt as other traders grow increasingly nervous about dealing with the company. And, in the wake of Maike's troubles, some of the biggest banks in the sector are pulling back from financing metals in China more generally.

Within China, He’s woes elicit mixed emotions. Many mourn his situation as tragic for the Chinese commodities industry and emblematic of an economy increasingly dominated by state companies.

Others would be less sad to see the end of a business model that elevated copper to a financial asset and sometimes caused import margins to diverge from physical fundamentals.

“For many years, traders like Maike have been quite important in the importation of copper into China — they’ve bought very consistently to keep the flow of financing going,” said Simon Collins, the former head of metals trading at Trafigura Group and the CEO of digital trading platform TradeCloud. “With the property market like it is, I think the music could be stopping.”

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

The Crown Estate — estimated at over $34B in assets — now belongs to King Charles III. 

But he won't have to pay the UK's 40% inheritance tax. Here's why













Chris Clark

Sun, September 18, 2022 

King Charles III faces a tax benefit most Britons and even many wealthy Americans could only dream of: The head of the British monarchy is exempt from the U.K.’s inheritance tax.

Queen Elizabeth II's death involves a transfer of her personal wealth of roughly $500 million to her first son, Charles. That means he doesn’t have to send roughly $200 million of Queen Elizabeth’s $500 million estate to the tax collector.

But it also involves a change in ownership of the Crown Estate: a portfolio of assets and real estate valued at $34.3 billion. Its holdings include Buckingham Palace and land and properties across the London and the U.K.

To be sure, the Crown Estate is held in trust. That means King Charles III can't sell any of its assets. But the royal family still collects about 15% of the profits from the estate through the "Sovereign Grant." Last year, the Crown Estate earned $311 million.

The tax exemption is among the list of luxuries separating most Britons from the Royal Family in the U.K., where constituents are required to pay a 40% tax on property valued above $377,000.

In the U.S., where such levies are derided as a “death tax,” the burden on estates is anything but a, well, dying breed. Even though most estates in America aren’t large enough to trigger a federal estate tax — an estate must be worth more than $12.06 million to do so — 17 states and the District of Columbia have laws that can tax one’s inheritance or estate, or both.

A $200 million pittance?

Avoiding a 40% tax on $500 million isn’t trivial. But since wealth is often a relative term, the inheritance levy on Charles wouldn’t represent much of a grab in the royal bag.

Queen Elizabeth II was the U.K.’s longest serving monarch, reigning over 14 Commonwealth realms as well as Britain, for seven decades. In that time, the Crown Estate’s fortune of assets and real estate valued together swelled to a massive amount — but nowhere near the fortunes of the world’s wealthiest people.

The Crown’s assets are overshadowed, for example, by the fortunes held by Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates.

Queen Elizabeth inherited about $81 million after her mother died in 2002 — passing down assets ranging from prized horses and jewelry to valued paintings and Fabergé eggs.

Over the years, those assets plus a healthy real estate collection — including Sandringham House in England and Balmoral Castle in Scotland — raised her total net worth to roughly half a billion dollars.

Elizabeth received income through the Sovereign Grant, a taxpayer-funded pool that amounted to nearly $100 million in 2021 and 2022 and is designed to cover official travel and the operating costs of various properties, including Buckingham Palace, the queen’s official residence.

That grant stems from a centuries-old agreement in which King George III surrendered his income from Parliament in order to receive a fixed annual payment for himself and future generations of the royal family. Charles is now set to receive income from the annual grant.

Death and taxes

Though Charles may cheat the “death tax” — taxes appear to be certain. Even for royalty.

The official Royal website reported that the queen volunteered to pay income and capital gains taxes in 1993 — despite not being legally obligated to do so — and has paid local taxes voluntarily.

And according to a “Memorandum of Understanding on Royal Taxation” written in 2013, Charles indicated he would pay taxes voluntarily upon inheriting the throne.

Merit or Inherit: How to Approach Succession in a Family Business

by Josh Baron
September 12, 2022

HBR Staff; LightFieldStudios; FooTToo/Getty Images



Summary. One of the most critical questions facing family businesses is how to treat the next generation. They are clearly different from other employees, as current or potential owners of the company, whose wealth and reputation are on the line. 


“Some people are born on third base and go through life thinking they hit a triple.” This quote, often attributed to NFL football coach Barry Switzer, perfectly captures what many people think about family businesses. Family members are given jobs, promotions, and salaries that they would never have achieved without their name being on the front door. As one non-family executive put it, “He’s the COO of the company — the child of the owner.”

One of the most critical questions facing family businesses is how to treat the next generation. They are clearly different from other employees, as current or potential owners of the company, whose wealth and reputation are on the line. On the flip side, most parents rightfully worry that providing too many unearned advantages undermines not only the next generation’s work ethic, but the soul of the company. In answering this question, families often default to one extreme or another: giving the next generation special treatment that doesn’t hold them accountable to the same standards as other employees (the “inherit model”) or requiring them to earn everything they get (the “merit model”). In my experience, a path that blends elements of both is far more likely to set family members up to succeed.

The Risks of Inherit or Merit

When roles are given rather than earned, it often creates an attitude of entitlement, exemplified well by Cho Hyun-Ah, the daughter of the CEO of Korean Air who, “famously flew into a rage when macadamia nuts were served to her in a bag and not on a plate on a Seoul-bound flight from New York in December 2014.” When family members wield their privilege this way, the impact on the company is destructive. Even more subtle signs of entitlement, such as showing up late to work or taking lengthy vacations to exotic locations, will undermine the corporate culture.

In light of these dangers, the temptation can be to remove the role of inheritance from the company altogether and make family members earn not only their job, but even their ownership in the company. This merit model can seem appealing, but it also brings real risks with it. Pitting family members against each other in a kind of talent horse race can create sides within an organization, potentially even splitting it up, which is what happened when such a sibling rivalry led the Dassler brothers to separate their company, Sportfarbrik Gebrüder Dassler (Geda for short), into two competing companies, Adidas and Puma.

Forcing family members to earn their ownership may make them feel compelled to work for the company even when it’s not a good fit for them. These “golden handcuffs” can have a negative impact both on that individual and, because of their dissatisfaction with being there, the broader company. And when someone does choose to leave, the company’s resources may need to be diverted away from investing for growth and toward funding the buyout of their shares.
Striking the Right Balance

So, at the extreme, neither the inherit nor merit models are viable. A successful family business needs some of both. There are three main actions you can take to find the right balance.

1. Differentiate between compensation and dividends.

This line is often blurred in family businesses. Family members may receive money that both reflects their day-to-day job responsibilities (compensation) as well as their equity stake in the company (dividends). Often this jumbling is driven by tax efficiencies. One family business pays everything out as compensation because their corporate structure results in dividends being taxed twice. A different family business does the opposite, paying very low salaries but high dividends because of the comparatively favorable tax treatment. Another driver of this boundary blurring is the impulse for equality, under the presumption that treating everyone the same is fair. In many cases, family members are given the same amount of money irrespective of their roles, or sometimes even whether or not they actually work in the company.

When the contributions of family members are roughly equal, then there’s no problem. Figure out what is a reasonable amount to pay family members for their jobs and invested capital and distribute that amount in the most tax-efficient way possible. However, this level of symmetry is rarely the case beyond the first or second generation. It’s far more likely that capabilities and passion for the business will be uneven across the family. In such situations, a one-size-fits-all approach will likely result in feelings of resentment (“I’m doing so much more, why should we get the same?”) and entitlement (“We both own 50% of the company, why should she get more?”).

The best way to address these issues is to develop separate systems for calculating what family members receive as compensation and dividends. Compensation should be driven by merit — it should reflect the market value of the role performed. Some families pay slightly above market rates to encourage family members to work in the business; others pay slightly less to discourage them. But the core principle stands. Someone who is serving as CFO is worth more to the company than an entry-level salesperson. Their compensation should reflect this reality.

Another reality is that the owners of a company deserve some return on their investment. If the only way to get a financial benefit from the business is to work there, then you’ve slapped the golden handcuffs on. Instead, develop a dividend policy. That could mean paying a set amount each year, a percentage of equity or profits, or whatever remains after paying the bills and funding necessary reinvestment. Dividends should be based on the “inherit” model — if we are cousins who all were gifted our parents’ equal shareholding, but you are an only child and I have two siblings, you will receive three times more of the dividend pool. Differentiating compensation from dividends is essential to finding the merit/inherit balance.

2. Clarify the decisions that come from management from those that accompany ownership.

In one family business, two siblings had taken over leadership from their father, who founded the company. They made all decisions — everything from operational to strategic — by consensus. The employees had learned a simple rule for making sure there was buy-in on their requests, big or small: “Ask the owners.” This approach worked because they were both heavily involved in all aspects of the business.

As they looked ahead to the next generation, it became clear that a different approach would be needed. Among their seven combined children, three worked in the business and four did not (with no plans to join). Not only did decisions by seven people seem daunting, but how could those who did not work in the company make informed choices about hiring employees or changing prices? At the same time, if those who were working in the company made all the decisions, how was that fair to the four people who combined owned more than half of the equity? Surely, they should have influence in some decisions. But not in a way that ground the company to a halt.

The path out of this dilemma was to distinguish the decisions that come from the merit and inherit models. The siblings created a list of all the decisions they had been making about the company. They then split them into three categories: 1) decisions that should be made by those in management (e.g., hiring a new regional sales manager); 2) decisions that should be made by the owners (e.g., paying out a dividend); and 3) decisions where those in management should make a recommendation, but the owners should approve or reject it (e.g., making an acquisition). Taking the time to develop this “decision-authority matrix” helped position the next generation to find the right balance between merit and inherit.

3. Create a family culture that recognizes the importance of both active involvement and passive shareholding.

There is a tendency to glorify the role of the “wealth creator” in a family business. At one of my seminars, a family CEO raised his hand and asked the question: “If I’m the one creating all the wealth, why should I share it with my two siblings, who are not even working in the company?” It’s an understandable question, to be sure. But the flaw in it became clear to him when he was asked in response: “What would you do if you had to buy out your siblings’ equity in the company?” He said that he would have to take one of three actions: borrow a ton of money from the bank; divert the company’s profits for the foreseeable future to fund buyouts; or take on other equity partners who might be much more demanding than his siblings. Since none of those options was the least bit appealing, he came to the realization that his siblings were bringing something valuable to the table: their willingness to keep their money invested in a business that he ran.

The value of passive shareholding is one of the most underappreciated contributions to a family business. Growing through retained earnings is one of the surest paths to long-term success, especially in comparison to high rates of borrowing or equity partners who will demand an exit to recoup their investment. So long as the demands of the shareholders who don’t work in the business are reasonable and their actions are not too distracting, keeping their money in the company is a tremendous benefit. If those working in the company do a good job of running it and those who are not take the long view and leave most of their money invested, then there should be more than enough to go around. Place value on both of these levers of contribution. The passive shareholders should express their gratitude for the hard work of those working in the company (and reward them financially through market-based compensation). And those working in the company should show respect to their investors in their communication (and be generating good dividends).

The extreme versions of nepotism and meritocracy will lead most family businesses to ruin. Instead, differentiate compensation from dividends, distinguish management from ownership decisions, and place value on the contributions of both active involvement and passive shareholding. By doing so, you will find the right balance between merit and inherit.



More From The Author

Harvard Business Review Family Business Handbook Toolkit
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Harvard Business Review Family Business Handbook: How to Build and Sustain a Successful, Enduring Enterprise
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Read more on Family businesses or related topic Succession planning
JB
Josh Baron is a co-founder and partner of BanyanGlobal Family Business Advisors and a Visiting Lecturer in Executive Education at Harvard Business School. He is a co-author of The Harvard Business Review Family Business Handbook (Harvard Business Review Press, 2021).


https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/mikhail-bakunin-report-of-the-commission-on-the-question-of-inheritance

Mikhail Bakunin Report of the Commission on the Question of Inheritance Adopted by the General Assembly of the Geneva Sections August 28, 1869 L'Egalité,...


https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/bakunin/works/1870/letter-frenchman.htm

His Letters to a Frenchman are among the most important of Bakunin's writings. ... the bottom upward, a war of destruction, a merciless war to the death.

https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/mikhail-bakunin-on-the-question-of-the-right-of-inheritance

Mikhail Bakunin On the Question of the Right of Inheritance in Speeches to the Basle Congress 1871 Translation by Robert M. Cutler. ISBN 13:...


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Jan 26, 2020 ... Bakunin's vision is that wealth taken from the deceased should be invested in education. The logic here is that although parents want to use ...



Tesla ordered to tell laid off workers about lawsuit

Jaclyn Trop 

A U.S. District Court has ordered that Tesla must tell employees about a lawsuit alleging the automaker violated state and federal law by requiring workers to sign separation agreements.

Two former Tesla employees filed the suit in July, alleging that the company required them to sign releases in exchange for less severance than federal and California state law provide. Attorneys asked the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas to prevent the automaker from asking laid-off workers to sign releases in exchange for just one week of severance instead of the eight provided under the law.

More than 500 other employees were let go from Tesla’s Gigafactory 2 in Sparks, Nevada, following CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that a coming economic downturn would force the company to lay off 10% of its salaried workforce. The Court order issued Friday protects workers laid off on or after June 19.

The lawsuit -- filed by two employees laid off in June from Tesla’s Gigafactory 2 in Sparks, Nevada, and another from Tesla’s Palo Alto store -- claims that the company violated Section 1400 of the California Labor Code, as well as the federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act by laying off workers without 60 days of advance notice.

“Plaintiffs allege that the separation agreements executed after this lawsuit was filed are coercive, abusive, and misleading because Tesla fails to inform terminated employees/potential class members about ‘the pending litigation and the rights that they are potentially giving up,’” according to the court order.

Tesla filed a motion in August to dismiss the claims. On Friday, the Court ruled that the company must continue to inform its employees about the suit “until the merits of Plaintiffs’ claims are resolved in federal court or in arbitration proceedings.”

The Court denied the plaintiffs’ request for pay and benefits for the 60-day notification period.

CRIMINAL CRYPTO CAPITALI$M

BitConnect Promoter Gets 38 Months in $2.4 Billion Ponzi Scam

David Voreacos

Fri, September 16, 2022 

(Bloomberg) -- The top North American promoter of the BitConnect cryptocurrency investment platform was sentenced to 38 months in prison for running a $2.4 billion Ponzi scheme that defrauded at least 4,500 people from 95 countries.

Glenn Arcaro, 45, was sentenced Friday in federal court in San Diego, where he pleaded guilty in September 2021. Arcaro admitted he fraudulently marketed BitConnect’s proprietary coin offering and digital currency exchange as a lucrative investment. He touted BitConnect’s phony “Trading Bot” and “Volatility Software” as guaranteed ways to make money on the volatility of cryptocurrency exchange markets.

In reality, BitConnect paid early investors using money received from later investors. BitConnect closed its exchange in January 2018 after getting cease-and-desist letters from state regulators in Texas and North Carolina.

“Fiscal crimes that combine the allure of cryptocurrency with new technology and a savvy marketing strategy are borderless and often begin through a relationship built on trust, hope, and promise,” said FBI Special Agent Gregory Nelsen, who runs the agency’s Cleveland office.

Arcaro, a Los Angeles resident, cooperated with prosecutors, court records show. He agreed to forfeit $24 million.

Bitconnect founder Satish Kumbhani, of Hemal, India, was indicted this year for leading the fraud. But the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which sued him in September 2021, said this year that he “has likely relocated from India to an unknown address in a foreign country.”

The day after BitConnect shut down, one of Kumbhani’s promoters based in South Korea warned that “some people here are talking about committing suicide” and that “lots of [Korean investors] invested everything they have,” according to the indictment. A promoter in Australia also wrote that “we are getting death threats...[and] the coin will be useless!!!!!”

In November, prosecutors said they would sell about $57 million in cryptocurrency seized from Arcaro. A judge later approved an amended order for the sale.

Read more: BitConnect’s Indicted Founder Kumbhani Vanished, SEC Says