Sunday, September 18, 2022

COVID is still killing hundreds a day, even as society begins to move on

Emily Alpert Reyes, Aida Ylanan
Sun, September 18, 2022

A woman holds the hand of her husband, a COVID patient at Providence Holy Cross Medical Center in Mission Hills. Even with vaccines and treatments available, the disease remains a killer.
 (Francine Orr/Los Angeles Times)

Roshan Kalghatgi was shocked when his 73-year-old mother tested positive for the coronavirus in July, nearly 2½ years into the pandemic.

"I thought it was a fluke," the Redwood City resident said. "I made them do it again."

His mother, Manisha, had eluded the virus at a Pennsylvania assisted living facility as COVID-19 devastated group facilities for the elderly. She had avoided infection again when she flew across the country to join Roshan and his family in San Mateo County, where she would tickle her 4-year-old grandson and faithfully follow his repeated requests to show him her belly button.

She had been vaccinated against COVID and received booster shots as well, Roshan said. By July, COVID wasn't the top threat to Manisha on his mind: His mother had been struggling with kidney disease and Roshan fretted about how to keep her going to dialysis, which she had abandoned even as Roshan agonized about what it would mean for her health.

Manisha was "stubborn about the right things and also stubborn about the wrong things," Roshan said ruefully, remembering how she had raised two children alone after the abrupt death of his father from a heart attack; and how she had moved repeatedly to find the best schools and services for Roshan, who became an engineer, and his sister Reena, who has an intellectual disability.

She died in August. To lose her now, Roshan said, "just seems so strange."

Americans have been urged to learn to live with the coronavirus, but this summer, hundreds were still dying from it each day. The death toll has fallen from the grim peaks of past surges, but has persisted in recent months, averaging more than 400 lives lost a day from June through August, according to data from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.

At that rate, COVID still amounts to one of the biggest causes of death in the U.S., even as public officials herald the availability of vaccines and treatments. The coronavirus "no longer controls our lives," President Biden declared this spring and again this summer. His COVID-19 coordinator has stated that most COVID deaths are now preventable.

Yet in Los Angeles County, more people died of COVID between May and July this year than during the same months last year. The virus claimed the lives of nearly 800 people in L.A. County in those months, compared with nearly 500 a year earlier. Elderly people bore the brunt of that increase, with a death rate that had tripled among people who had reached their 80th birthday.

"There's no question in my mind that ageism has been an enabling aspect of our inadequate response to COVID," said Dr. Michael Wasserman, a geriatrician and chair of the public policy committee for the California Assn. of Long Term Care Medicine.

Across California, roughly half of COVID deaths this summer were among people who had reached age 80 or older, and nearly one-third were between 65 and 79, a Times analysis of state data found.

Men remain more likely to die than women, according to L.A. County data. The toll of the pandemic has also continued to follow longstanding patterns of racial inequality: Black Californians had the highest rates of death from COVID across the state in recent months, a pattern that persisted in most age groups, The Times' analysis found.

But others were not spared, the figures show. Besides the stark toll on the elderly, hundreds of middle-aged and younger people also lost their lives to the virus in California in recent months, including four minors. Experts said that the rampant spread of the Omicron variant has driven up the number of deaths even as many others are surviving infection.

Right now, "the deaths have almost become an afterthought. We're not really acknowledging what's happening," said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. With hundreds still dying each day, "I just refuse to accept this as the norm. What are we doing wrong?"

*

Even last year, as vaccines became available, COVID continued to slash life expectancy in California, researchers found in a study published this summer in the Journal of the American Medical Assn. The worst hit were Black and Latino people in areas with low incomes.

Experts believe the heavier toll for Black and Latino patients has been tied to a host of factors, including crowded housing and face-to-face jobs that put them at higher risk of getting infected in the first place. And then there are longstanding inequities in who suffers from chronic illnesses such as diabetes, which leave people more vulnerable when the virus hits.

In Los Angeles County, the vast majority of people who died from COVID between May and July had at least one comorbidity, and nearly half had three or more, including hypertension, cardiovascular disease, obesity and other conditions. People in poorer neighborhoods have also been dying at higher rates than those in richer areas.

At Pomona Valley Hospital Medical Center, patients who have died of COVID in recent months have mostly been seniors, and "typically they have other comorbid illnesses" such as heart disease, said Dr. Rakesh Sinha, a pulmonary critical care specialist. Some have "long-term hypertension. Many of them have diabetes. And some of them are immunocompromised. They may have had cancer in the past. They could be on immunocompromising medications for rheumatoid arthritis or, at times, on steroids for their chronic illnesses."

As COVID has persisted as a health threat, "it gets harder and harder for COVID to pick off the most vulnerable, because a lot of the most vulnerable have already perished," said Andrew Noymer, associate professor of population health and disease prevention at UC Irvine. But as the virus endures, a new cohort of people are developing hypertension, asthma and other conditions, and "it can get its talons into a new generation."

Some of the hardest hit have not gotten booster shots, Sinha said, and some have not been vaccinated at all against the coronavirus.

Federal data have shown that although vaccinated people have had breakthrough infections, they remain much less likely to die of COVID than unvaccinated people, especially if they had also received booster shots. As of early July, unvaccinated people 50 and older were more than a dozen times more likely to die of COVID than vaccinated people of the same ages who had two or more boosters.

But booster coverage has been spotty, even among the elderly, the bulk of whom got the initial vaccines, according to federal data. And fewer than 6% of immunocompromised people have been protected with Evusheld, a pair of shots that can armor them with antibodies that they do not generate from vaccination, CDC researchers have estimated.

And although their risk is much lower, vaccinated people have nonetheless been among those who have died from COVID. In California, 152 vaccinated people died of COVID in June and early July, out of more than 11 million vaccinated people across the state, according to state data.

"The reality is that, nowadays, it's not just unvaccinated people," said Kristin Urquiza, cofounder of Marked by COVID, a nonprofit that has pushed for public recognition of pandemic deaths. "Especially for people who already have marginalized health and are immunocompromised or disabled."

After his mother tested positive for the coronavirus, Roshan Kalghatgi was unable to see her for a week. "At some point I said, 'Screw it — I'm going in there.'"

He suited up in protective gear to sit at her bedside as she was in hospice care. When she died, he lamented the fact that they had not been able to spend her last days doing things she loved: listening to Hindu devotional music, snacking on idli with chutney or indulging in McDonald's fries, playing with her grandson, or just talking.

"We just couldn't have those last moments," he said. She had been preparing to die, but "her wishes did not include COVID-19," he added.

Many of the high-risk patients that Dr. Thomas Yadegar takes care of "were able to protect themselves, and one way or another they were able to evade this virus — up until the last few months, when it's been impossible because it's so much more contagious and has been so prevalent," said Yadegar, medical director of the intensive care unit at Providence Cedars-Sinai Tarzana Medical Center.

He lamented that other people had become "complacent" and unwilling to take simple steps such as wearing a mask indoors to protect those at highest risk.

"We've sacrificed the lives of our most vulnerable for our own convenience," Yadegar said. "The elderly, the immunocompromised, and the unvaccinated or under-vaccinated — they are the ones that account for the vast majority of deaths due to COVID-19." As hundreds perish daily, "thousands more are left behind, tormented by the loss."

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Days after Paul Alweyn Redd Jr. got COVID, his sister texted him to tell him not to worry about a family errand — to just focus on taking care of himself — and to call back and let her know how he was doing.

"He never did call me back," Alvina Williams said, growing tearful. "And he always called me back."

Redd, 65, had spent decades in prison after being convicted of a murder he said he didn't commit. He had also grappled with cancer and started undergoing chemotherapy while incarcerated. But he had made it through those ordeals — and when he was released, after a judge reduced his conviction to manslaughter, "it was like he had never left," Williams said.

The Oakland resident showed up at every birthday party and family barbecue, crisply dressed in a matching outfit, cracking jokes to make his younger sister laugh. "He always wanted to take care of family," Williams said. "That was his main mission — to come out and take care of those that had taken care of him."

Redd also tried to take care of those he had left behind. His nephew U-Gene Jackson remembered that when he got out of prison, after celebrating with a steak, he quickly started unloading plastic tubs full of paperwork on the kitchen table, trying to decide who he needed to call first.

"He felt like, 'I've got to get these guys out of here,' " Jackson said.

He went to work as a legal assistant, trying to help others still locked up. He logged onto Zoom calls with lawyers and spoke at rallies.

No matter what he was doing, though, Williams said Redd would pick up the phone when she called and tell her he would call her back. Even if he were on stage, she said, "he would answer and say, 'Sis, I'm giving a speech, I'll call you back.' "

But this time, he never called. Redd had told her, when she had initially phoned to ask if he could pick up their sister from the airport, that he wasn't sure if he could make it. "Sis, this COVID ain't no joke," Williams remembers him saying.

She knew he had already been grappling with the cancer that had come back, this time hitting his lungs. Jackson said Redd had been vaccinated and received booster shots, but "I think he was much sicker than what he led us to believe," even before he got COVID.

Osterholm, the University of Minnesota expert, said that for people with other medical vulnerabilities, COVID can be like a lit match thrown into dry brush. "It doesn't cause the high temperatures, or the winds, or the low humidity" that spell disaster, he said. "But nothing happens until you throw that SARS-CoV-2 virus into the mix."

Redd died on June 19 at home at Canticle Farm, a social-justice-oriented community built around a garden in the Fruitvale neighborhood. At his funeral, mourners wore red — his surname and his favorite color — and released doves.

Depression has weighed on Williams in the months since his death. Williams cannot bear to look at his obituary. She cannot bring herself to pick up his book of poems, including one addressed to her, "my pride and joy."

"As a society, we are not really fully processing what it means to lose people in the way we have," said Vickie M. Mays, a UCLA professor in psychology and health policy and management.

When people talk about death, they often think about the individual and their immediate circle, but losing elders can also mean the disappearance of languages or the disruption of communities that relied on them as caregivers, she said. "The loss of one person reverberates out. You're looking at touching many lives."

Jackson said in a family that had been flung apart by distance and tragedy, Redd "was like the glue." Even while he was in prison, he had used letters to introduce Jackson to cousins he never knew he had. Now, "I don't think it'll be the same," Jackson said. "Everybody will kind of go back to their clamshells."

*

Erick Morales, right, and Alejandra Morales Gutiérrez hold a portrait of their mother, Alejandra Gutiérrez, who tested positive in May and died in June. (Christina House/Los Angeles Times)

A Christmas card given to Alejandra by her bosses sits on a shelf in her bedroom. (Christina House/Los Angeles Times)

Erick Morales remembers his mother asking him to translate the English saying off the Christmas card that her bosses had given her. "It was something like, 'They tried to bury us but they didn't know that we were seeds,'" he remembered. "She really liked that. I know it's like a card, but that stuck with her for a really long time."

Alejandra Gutiérrez, 59, had uprooted herself to make a life in a new country, working hard as a housekeeper to provide for her family in Los Angeles. She had lost the father of her children to cancer and become the sole parent to Erick and his sister Alejandra when they were just 5 and 4. Yet she had emerged from her grief with a buoyant faith.

Her daughter Alejandra remembers that she loved to bring people hope, gathering groups of Pentecostal churchgoers in her home to share the word of God. As a mother, "she always met me where I was at," Alejandra Morales-Gutiérrez said. "She never made me feel like I was in the wrong for feeling what I was feeling."

Even when she fell ill, Gutiérrez was generous with her daughter about her frustration and sadness, her daughter remembered. She was diagnosed with ovarian cancer during the first winter that COVID-19 was battering hospitals. Her son and daughter avoided going out much, trying to protect her from the virus as she underwent chemotherapy.

The cancer metastasized to her brain in January. She endured radiation, then surgery on her gall bladder. In late May, her children checked her oxygen levels after seeing her struggle with breathing. Doctors suggested a COVID test, which came back positive. They shuttled her back to one hospital, then headed to another when no bed could be found for her.

She died at home, while in hospice care. In her last days, she could not speak. Morales-Gutiérrez painted her nails and curled up next to her to watch a Spiderman movie. She played worship music that her mother loved. The family gathered around her and prayed and told her that it was OK if she no longer wanted to fight.

After her death in June, her children discovered that she had bought insurance to help cover some burial expenses and picked out her casket ahead of time, trying to make things easier on them. "It just goes to show how caring she was as a mom," Morales-Gutiérrez said.

They had tried hard to protect her too, wearing masks inside the house while she endured chemo and radiation, turning down invitations to go out with friends to avoid COVID. They wonder: Did they somehow infect her anyway? Or did she get it at the hospital? She was vaccinated and had gotten one booster shot, but not a second. Would it have made any difference?

What nags at Dr. Eric Topol are all the things we do not know about the hundreds of people dying daily of COVID across the country. He wonders: "Did they get Paxlovid? Did they get bebtelovimab?" Medications can help fight the virus, but "what if people just didn't get the therapies that they need? How many of these deaths were avoidable?"

After a death, doctors usually hash out whether it was avoidable. Now it's happening hundreds of times a day, "and there's no interest in doing a postmortem of the problem," said Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla.

Instead, the impulse is often to wave it away. When someone loses a loved one to COVID, "often the first thing that's asked of you is either, 'Were they vaccinated?' or 'Did they have a preexisting condition?'" said Urquiza of Marked by COVID. "I think people are asking that because they want to reaffirm their own sense of safety. 'Oh, Kristin's dad died because he had x, y or z — I don't.'"

Morales said that people tend to assume that cancer alone took his mother. When he told a friend that she ultimately died after getting COVID, the friend was surprised.

"'Really? COVID? How did that happen?'" the friend asked Morales. "'People aren't dying of COVID anymore.'"

Times staff writer Sean Greene contributed to this report.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

 Dreaded Side Effect Rears Its Ugly Head in Latest COVID Variant


David Axe
Sun, September 18, 2022

Photo Illustration by Elizabeth Brockway/The Daily Beast/Getty

All over the world, the rates of death and hospitalization from COVID keep dropping. But our successful mitigation of the worst outcomes of the 33-month-old pandemic belie a growing crisis.

More and more people are surviving COVID and staying out of the hospital, but more and more people are also living with long-term symptoms of COVID. Fatigue. Heart problems. Stomach problems. Lung problems. Confusion. Symptoms that can last for months or even a year or more after the infection clears.

As many as 21 percent of Americans who caught the SARS-CoV-2 virus this summer ended up suffering from long COVID starting four weeks after infection, according to a new study from City University of New York.

That’s up from 19 percent in figures the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported in June.

Compare those numbers to the recent rates of death and hospitalization from COVID in the U.S.—three percent and .3 percent, respectively. Long COVID is by far the likeliest serious outcome from any novel-coronavirus infection. And possibly getting likelier.

This Could Be the Only Way to Beat COVID for Good

The CUNY study, which is not yet peer-reviewed, focused on American adults, but the results have implications for the whole world. Globally, long-term symptoms are partially replacing COVID deaths. After all, more COVID survivors means more people at risk of long-term symptoms. And long COVID is cumulative—people get sick and stay sick for a while.

“Despite an increased level of protection against long COVID from vaccination, it may be that the total number of people with long COVID in the U.S. is increasing,” epidemiologist Denis Nash, the CUNY study’s lead author, told The Daily Beast. That is, every day more people catch long COVID than recover from long COVID.

But understanding long COVID, to say nothing of preventing it, isn’t a priority in the global epidemiological establishment. That needs to change, Nash said. “I believe it is long past time to be focusing on long COVID in addition to preventing hospitalizations and deaths.”

In recent weeks, authorities have logged around half a million new COVID cases a day, worldwide. That’s not quite as low as the 400,000 new cases a day health agencies tallied during the biggest dip in case-rates back in February 2021. But it’s close.

What’s really remarkable, however, is how few of those half-a-million-a-day COVID infections are fatal. Lately, just 1,700 people have been dying every day—that’s a fifth as many died daily in February last year, when the number of new infections every day was only slightly greater.

Hospitalizations for serious COVID cases are down, too. Global statistics aren’t available, but in the U.S., COVID hospitalizations dropped from 15,000 a day 19 months ago to just 3,700 a day now.

It’s not hard to explain the decrease in the death and hospitalization rates. Worldwide, around two-thirds of adults are at least partially vaccinated. Billions of people also have antibodies from past infections they survived. Every antibody helps to blunt the absolutely worst outcomes.

But the incidence of long COVID appears to be ticking upward. The high reinfection rate could be one reason. Currently, one in six people catches the virus more than once. Repeated infections come with elevated risk of a whole host of problems that, not coincidentally, match the symptoms of long COVID, a team of scientists at Washington University School of Medicine and the U.S. Veterans Administration's Saint Louis Health Care System concluded in a study this summer. The more reinfections, the more long COVID.

Crunching the numbers from back in July, Nash’s team concluded that 7 percent of all American adults—that’s more than 18 million people—had long COVID at the time. If the same rate applies to the whole world—and there’s no reason to believe it doesn’t—the global caseload for long COVID could’ve exceeded 560 million this summer.

That number is probably a lot higher now, considering the summer spike in infections resulting from BA.5—a million worldwide new cases a day in July.

One thing that surprised Nash and his teammates is that the risk of long COVID isn’t uniform across the population. Young people and women are more likely to catch long COVID, the CUNY team found. Nash said the higher vaccination rate among older adults and seniors could explain the former. But the latter remains a mystery. “Further study of these groups may provide some clues about risk factors,” he said.

Why there’s a sex gap in long COVID risk is just one unanswered question that scientists and health officials could be trying to answer. They could also be working up new vaccine strategies and public-health messaging specifically for long COVID.

But by and large, they’re not doing much to address the risk of long-term symptoms, Nash said. Nearly three years into the COVID pandemic, authorities are still overwhelmingly focused on preventing hospitalizations and deaths—and only preventing hospitalizations and deaths.

“Exclusively focusing on these outcomes could arguably make the long COVID situation worse,” Nash explained, “since there is a substantial amount of long COVID among people that have only had mild or less severe SARS-CoV-2 infections.”

Yet Another Curveball in the COVID Mutation Nightmare

In that sense, long COVID is a silent crisis. One that affects potentially more than half a billion people, but which isn’t a major focus of research or public health policy. “It’s certainly valuable to save lives, but quality of life is very important, too—and that can be lacking in people who have long COVID,” Cindy Prins, a University of Florida epidemiologist, told The Daily Beast.

We’re not powerless to prevent long COVID, of course. The same tools that can prevent hospitalization and death from COVID can also reduce the likelihood of long-term symptoms—all by lowering the chance of any COVID, short or long. Get vaccinated. Keep current on your boosters. Mask up in crowded indoor spaces.

But given the trend in SARS-CoV-2’s evolution, long COVID could become a bigger and bigger problem even among the most careful people—and a problem begging for specific solutions. The virus is still mutating. And every new variant or subvariant has tended to be more contagious than the last, meaning more and more breakthrough infections in the fully-vaccinated and boosted.

If you’re currently up to date on your jabs, the chances of COVID killing you or putting you in the hospital are low. But the chances of it making you sick, potentially for a very long time, are substantial—and apparently getting higher
Your boss is ordering you back to the office even though they have no idea if COVID is really over

Dylan Hollingsworth, Bloomberg via Getty ImagesErin Prater Sun, September 18, 2022
Labor Day marked the end of the total work-from-home era for many U.S. workers, with companies including Apple, Comcast, and Peloton demanding a return to the office after the long holiday weekend.


The unspoken premise behind the edict was that the COVID pandemic as we know it is over—or at least a shadow of what it used to be.

But public health experts say that many Americans—and their bosses—are making rosy assumptions about what the rest of the year will look like that aren’t based in science. The reality is that the virus probably isn’t going away any time soon, and how severe the next COVID wave will be is still a mystery.

“Any modeling done more than three to four weeks ahead is meaningless,” Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), told Fortune. He added that anyone who says otherwise “probably wants to sell you a bridge.”
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“We have so little experience with coronaviruses and how they play out,” he said. “We’re kind of in limbo land right now.”
COVID be damned—bosses want workers back in the office

Last year was filled with failed return to office deadlines.

Several U.S. companies planned for a Labor Day return in 2021, but the Delta variant upended those plans. Early 2022 was the next target, until Omicron upended those plans, too.

More recent announcements about the end of remote work have left out COVID altogether. Apple recently set a Sept. 5 deadline for employees to return to the workplace at least three days a week but provided no COVID-related explanation as to why, such as the virus potentially letting up.

And a memo from Comcast CEO Dave Watson reportedly mentioned the importance of in-person collaboration in innovation, but nothing about COVID beyond a statement that vaccines aren’t required, and a request that employees work from home or take time off when they're sick, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer and other sources.

Although there have been some notable rebellions, it seems that workers with employers hellbent on getting them back into the office are being forced to leave remote work behind—whether or not the virus cooperates.

But bosses could be forgiven for assuming the pandemic is nearly over. The White House and World Health Organization have recently made statements that some experts say are far too optimistic.

Global COVID deaths are at the lowest level they’ve been at since March 2020, prompting World Health Organization head Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus this week to proclaim that the world has “never been in a better position to end the pandemic.”

“We are not there yet,” Ghebreyesus said. “But the end is in sight.”


And earlier this month, the White House seemed to pivot away from a dire forecast it issued in May that projected a fall/winter wave of up to 100 million COVID infections—more than the country’s recorded total so far—and potentially a sizable wave of deaths.

At a Sept. 6 news conference, Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House’s COVID response coordinator said that science has “caught up with the virus,” and that annual COVID boosters—similar to annual flu shots—are likely in the near future.

But other public health experts aren’t so optimistic.


“That could be one scenario,” CIDRAP’s Osterholm said. “Another scenario could be that we in fact see a new variant emerge that’s capable of evading immune protection, that’s more infectious.”

Beyond COVID-19, and the SARS and MERS epidemics of the early 2000s, scientists have very little experience with coronaviruses, he said—and there’s no reason to say one scenario is more likely than the other.

“What we don’t want to do is provide comfort and comforting answers to the public because we think that’s what they want,” he said.
The trouble with projections

In 2020, the idea of forecasting a virus like one forecasts the weather was a novel one. Bad virus “weather” ahead? Wear a mask, just as you might wear a raincoat if a storm was expected.

But there’s a reason forecasts are only issued for the next few days—or in the case of COVID, weeks, experts say.

“We’ve gotten very good at projecting what the pandemic is going to look like three, four, five weeks from now,” Dr. John Swartzberg, a professor at the Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology at the University of California, told Fortune.

“Beyond now—and certainly beyond six weeks from now—the accuracy of predictions drops dramatically,” he added. “You get two to three months out, and it’s almost like flipping a coin.”

The terms forecasting and modeling are often used interchangeably, but they shouldn’t be, according to Dr. Elizabeth Carlton, assistant professor at the Colorado School of Public Health and member of the state's COVID-19 modeling team. COVID forecasts predict conditions in the near term—the next two to four weeks. Projections, however, are more long term, and require scientists to make assumptions.

Thus, any COVID projection more than a few weeks out—like the White House’s dire fall and winter prediction issued this spring—are based on conjecture and entirely uncertain.

A best attempt at a look ahead


Near-term U.S. COVID forecasts in the U.S. are mostly positive.

"Most scenarios indicate that hospitalization rates from COVID-19 infection will be similar to current rates or decline slowly over the next few weeks," the CDC told Fortune earlier this month.

Beyond that, though, other public health agencies are careful to highlight the uncertainty in their projections about what will happen over the next few months.

Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead for COVID-19 response at the World Health Organization, told Fortune this week that “continued” waves of COVID are expected, though she added that providing a more specific picture is currently impossible.

Carlton believes there is reason for hope this holiday season—hope with a “giant asterisk.”

At the individual level, one’s risk of coming down with COVID “is lower than it has been for a while,” she said, especially given new Omicron boosters.

While now is not the time to throw caution to the wind and personal precautions should continue, “I think there is some justification for letting your hair down,” she added.

“This is not the flu—we’ve lost over 200,000 people this year to COVID,” she said. “In bad flu years we lose tens of thousands. But we’re not where we were a few years ago.”

But it’s not the time for public health and disaster preparedness officials to take a breather, Carlton noted.

When it comes to the world’s next COVID wave—and there will be another, experts say—the virus is holding its cards close. Most of the experts Fortune spoke to named subvariants BA.4.6 and BA.2.75 as potential variants of concern worth keeping an eye on this fall and winter. No one variant, however, is currently raising major red flags.

Little is known about the duo of Omicron spawns—including how severe symptoms might be and whether they may be able to evade immunity from even new Omicron boosters. Both show the ability, at least in some locations, to compete with the globally dominant BA.5—though neither so far is making rapid progress.

Because some variants like BA.2.75, also known as Centaurus, are making slow progress in the face of BA.5, they must have some advantages over it when it comes to transmissibility, Osterholm said.

But he adds that a “sense of humility” is what’s most needed as the U.S. faces another COVID winter.

“For all we know, a Pi or Sigma could show up, replacing Omicron,” he said.
An unpredictable virus

The virus wasn’t always so difficult to predict. In the pandemic’s earlier days, a variant that hit the U.K. hard would often have the same effect on the U.S. several weeks later.

But now, the virus is spawning so many subvariants in so many different locations that it’s difficult to pinpoint any one of them in any one region, and predict if and when it’s headed to the U.S., Carlton said.

With BA.5 seemingly dropping to a relatively low plateau of 60,000 newly reported cases per day, it’s easy to interpret the lull in waves as an end to the pandemic, Swarztberg says.

But we’ve come to that conclusion before—incorrectly so—and we keep doing it. It’s what Carlton and other experts call the “fear-fatigue” cycle or the “panic-neglect” cycle, both of which entail a lack of proactive precaution and reactivity that often involves too little action, too late.

Last year, the U.S. was in a good place in late September, October and November, Swarztberg said.

“But then we saw a new variant called Omicron in South Africa,” he said. “Within three weeks, it was here.”

Past epidemic coronaviruses SARS and MERS, while far less transmissible, were far more lethal, with fatality rates ranging from 20%-30%, versus that of COVID-19, which is less than 1%, Osterholm said.

But it’s possible, he contends, that COVID-19 eventually evolves to develop the lethality of SARS and MERS while maintaining its signature transmissibility.

Even if such a scenario never plays out, COVID is currently the fourth leading cause of death in the country—a fact we’ve collectively numbed to, according to Osterholm.

“The same number three years ago would have been a ‘house on fire’ moment,” he said.

“The question is, is that number going to keep dropping gradually, like a soft landing? Stay the same? Potentially go back up again with a climb? We just don’t know.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
PREMATURE PRONOUCEMENT
Biden: ‘The pandemic is over’


Brett Samuels
Sun, September 18, 2022 

President Biden in an interview that aired Sunday declared the coronavirus pandemic is “over,” pointing to the return of large events and the lack of masking and other public health measures in place nationwide.

“The pandemic is over,” Biden told “60 Minutes” from the Detroit auto show last Wednesday, the first one held since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. “We still have a problem with COVID. We’re still doing a lotta work on it. It’s– but the pandemic is over. if you notice, no one’s wearing masks. Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape. And so I think it’s changing. And I think this is a perfect example of it.”

The United States is still recording an average of more than 400 deaths per day from COVID-19, according to New York Times data, and more than 1 million Americans have died from the virus since the pandemic began in early 2020.

Highly contagious variants have spread throughout the globe, making it nearly impossible to fully eradicate COVID-19.

As a result, the Biden administration has focused its messaging on the importance of getting vaccinated and receiving booster shots to increase immunity, as well as the wide availability of of antiviral pills and other forms of treatment for those who contract the virus.

Biden himself contracted COVID-19 in July, but dealt with only mild symptoms, according to his doctor. Officials credited his mild case to being fully vaccinated and taking the antiviral drug Paxlovid.

The U.S. and much of the world has returned to hosting large events over the past year, like the auto show, and done away with requirements that attendees where mask or provide proof of vaccination. The U.S. does require foreign visitors to be fully vaccinated to come to the country by plane.

“I think you’d agree that the impact on the psyche of the American people as a consequence of the pandemic is profound,” Biden said in his interview with Scott Pelley. “Think of how that has changed everything. You know, people’s attitudes about themselves, their families, about the state of the nation, about the state of their communities. And so there’s a lot of uncertainty out there, a great deal of uncertainty. And we lost a million people. A million people to COVID.

“When I got in office, when I got elected, only 2 million people had been vaccinated. I got 220 million– my point is it takes time,” he added. “We were left in a very difficult situation. It’s been a very difficult time. Very difficult.”

45 Kentucky counties are at high COVID community level. See where CDC recommends masks

Jackie Starkey
Sun, September 18, 2022 

The number of counties at a high COVID-19 community level has fallen significantly over the past week, according to the latest update from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

As of Thursday, 45 Kentucky counties are at a high community level — a metric determined by new cases and hospital admissions per 100,000 people (seven-day totals) and the percentage of occupied COVID-19 hospital beds (a seven-day average).

The CDC updates the guidance weekly and recommends individuals mask up when indoors in counties where the community level is high.

Most of Kentucky’s counties at high are in the eastern part of the state, and Fayette and several adjacent counties are also at high.

This map of Kentucky from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows COVID-19 community levels by county as of Sept. 16, 2022. Those in orange are at high, yellow are at medium and green are at low.

Last week, 71 counties were scored high, and the number at medium has increased over the week from 37 to 44. Thirty-one counties are at low as of Sept. 16.

The CDC recommends those who reside in or visit medium counties and are at risk for severe illness also mask up in indoor public places.

Staying up to date on vaccines and testing if symptoms arise are recommended for everyone, regardless of community level.

Looking for a COVID booster, flu shot or monkeypox vaccine? Where to find one in Lexington
COVID-19 in Kentucky

The state reports cases and other coronavirus data weekly on its dashboard. As of the latest report, dated Sept. 12, 9,074 new COVID-19 cases were reported for the week prior, along with 65 new deaths.

More than 1.5 million cases have been confirmed in Kentucky since the onset of the pandemic and the death toll is at 16,822.

“(It’s) still too early to say if we are in a true decline, but it does look promising,” Gov. Andy Beshear noted Thursday during the coronavirus update portion of his weekly press conference.

The state’s positivity rate — the portion of positive tests over the total administered for the period — was 16.29%, down from 18.4% the week prior.

The CDC reports 8,371 new cases for the state in the past week ending Sept. 13, with more than 47,400 tests performed. Cases in Kentucky and across the U.S. are undercounted given the rise in at-home testing.

You tested positive for COVID-19 at home. Now what? KY’s reader questions, answered
COVID-19 in Fayette County

The state’s Sept. 12 report includes 511 new confirmed cases in Lexington, along with one additional death. To date, 660 Fayette County residents have died of COVID-19, according to the local health department.

The CDC puts Lexington’s case rate at 169.27 cases per 100,000 people and the positivity rate at 16.35%.

Rollout continues for the updated COVID-19 booster shot, which now has expanded eligibility for many Americans and others living in the U.S.

The updated formulas, set to target the omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, are now available to all ages 12 and older who have completed their primary series and have not received a shot in the last two months, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The new boosters are available at many area pharmacies and providers, and the Lexington-Fayette County Health Department has two mass clinics scheduled to administer Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna jabs.

The LFCHD’s regular public health clinic will also begin offering the updated boosters Oct. 3.

CDC data indicates 72.2% of Fayette County residents ages 5 and older are fully vaccinated. Statewide, that figure falls to 62.2%. Meanwhile, 38.6% of Lexingtonians ages 50 and older are fully vaccinated through their second booster.

Gov. Beshear noted while the outlook is improving, the state continues to see “dozens” of COVID deaths each week.

“There’s a common thread for almost all the people that we’re losing. They’re either unvaccinated or haven’t gotten all of their boosters,” he said.

Fauci fears ‘anti-vaxxer attitude’ could cause outbreaks of non-COVID diseases



Olafimihan Oshin
Sun, September 18, 2022

Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said in a new interview that the “anti-vaxxer attitude” of some Americans risks causing non-COVID virus outbreaks in the U.S.

“I’m concerned the acceleration of an anti-vaxxer attitude in certain segments of the population . . . might spill over into that kind of a negative attitude towards childhood vaccinations,” Fauci told The Financial Times in an interview published Sunday.

“If you fall back on vaccines against common vaccine-preventable childhood diseases, that’s where you wind up getting avoidable and unnecessary outbreaks,” Fauci added.

Fauci, who announced his pending retirement from government last month, said political division is one factor driving anti-vaccine sentiment, noting how some states have not promoted COVID-19 vaccination and Congress has failed to advance billions of dollars in funding.

The World Health Organization released a report in July showing that vaccination among children declined more during the COVID-19 pandemic than at any time in the past 30 years.

Fauci’s remark comes after New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) declared a state of emergency last week due to the spread of polio through wastewater, spurring the state to ramp up vaccinations against the virus.

The U.S.’s COVID-19 vaccination rate amongst adults is still at 67 percent, according to CDC data, but is well below other countries.

Fauci also said in an interview with Bloomberg Law earlier this month that the U.S. should prepare for a bad flu season.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.
Frugal is the new cool for young Chinese as economy falters




Young Chinese facing uncertain future

Sun, September 18, 2022 
By Albee Zhang and Tony Munroe

BEIJING (Reuters) - Before the pandemic, Doris Fu imagined a different future for herself and her family: new car, bigger apartment, fine dining on weekends and holidays on tropical islands.

Instead, the 39-year old Shanghai marketing consultant is one of many Chinese in their 20s and 30s cutting spending and saving cash where they can, rattled by China's coronavirus lockdowns, high youth unemployment and a faltering property market.

"I no longer have manicures, I don't get my hair done anymore. I have gone to China-made for all my cosmetics," Fu told Reuters.

This new frugality, amplified by social media influencers touting low-cost lifestyles and sharing money-saving tips, is a threat to the world's second-largest economy, which narrowly avoided contraction in the second quarter. Consumer spending accounts for more than half of China's GDP.

"We've been mapping consumer behaviour here for 16 years and in all of that time this is the most concerned that I've seen young consumers," said Benjamin Cavender, managing director of China Market Research Group (CMR).

China's 'zero-COVID' policy – including stringent lockdowns, travel restrictions and mass testing - has taken a heavy toll on the country's economy. The government's crackdown on big technology companies has also had an outsized effect on the young workforce.

Unemployment among people aged 16 to 24 stands at almost 19%, after hitting a record 20% in July, according to government data. Some young people have been forced to take pay cuts, for example in the retail and e-commerce sectors, according to two industry surveys. The average salary in 38 major Chinese cities fell 1% in the first three months of this year, data collated by online recruitment firm Zhilian Zhaopin show.

As a result, some young people prefer to save than splurge.

"I used to go see two movies every month, but I haven't stepped inside a cinema since the pandemic," said Fu, an avid movie fan.

Retail sales in China rose just 2.7% year-on-year in July, recovering to 5.4% in August but still well below the mostly 7%-plus levels during 2019, before the pandemic.

Almost 60% of people are now inclined to save more, rather than consume or invest more, according to the most recent quarterly survey by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank. That figure was 45% three years ago.

Chinese households overall added 10.8 trillion yuan ($1.54 trillion) in new bank savings in the first eight months of the year, up from 6.4 trillion yuan in the same period last year.

That is a problem for China's economic policymakers, who have long relied on increased consumption to bolster growth.

China is the only leading economy that cut interest rates this year, in an effort to spur growth. China's big state-owned banks cut personal deposit rates on Sept. 15, a move designed to discourage saving and boost consumption.

Addressing the rise in people's inclination to save, a PBOC official said in July that when the pandemic eases, the willingness to invest and consume will "stabilize and rise."

The PBOC did not respond to Reuters requests for comment; neither did China's Ministry of Commerce.

'10 YUAN DINNER'


After years of increasingly ardent consumerism fuelled by rising wages, easy credit and online shopping, a move toward frugality brings young people in China closer to their more cautious parents, whose memories of lean years before the economy took off have made them more inclined to save.

"Amid the tough job market and strong downward economic pressure, young people's feelings of insecurity and uncertainty are something they never experienced," said Zhiwu Chen, chair professor of finance at Hong Kong University Business School.

Unlike their parents, some are making a show of their thriftiness online.

A woman in her 20s in the eastern city of Hangzhou, who uses the handle Lajiang, has gained hundreds of thousands of followers posting more than 100 videos on how to make 10 yuan ($1.45) dinners on lifestyle app Xiaohongshu and streaming site Bilibili.

In one minute-long video with nearly 400,000 views, she stir-fries a dish made from a 4-yuan basa fillet, 5 yuan of frozen shrimp, and 2 yuan of vegetables, using a pink chopping board and pink rice cooker.

Social media discussions have sprung up to share money-saving tips, such as the 'Live off 1,600 yuan a month challenge,' in Shanghai, one of China's most expensive cities.

Yang Jun, who said she was deep in credit card debt before the pandemic, started a group called the Low Consumption Research Institute on networking site Douban in 2019. The group has attracted more than 150,000 members. Yang said she is cutting spending and is selling some of her belongings on second-hand sites to raise cash.

"COVID-19 makes people pessimistic," the 28-year-old said. "You can't just be like before, spend all the money you make, and make it back again next month." She said she is now out of debt.

Yang said she has cut out her daily Starbucks coffee. Fu said she switched her makeup powder brand from Givenchy to a Chinese brand called Florasis, which is about 60% cheaper.

French luxury brands leader LVMH, which owns Givenchy, and coffee giant Starbucks Corp both said sales fell sharply in China in the latest quarter.

China has given no signal on when or how it will exit from its zero-COVID policy. And while policymakers have taken various measures in hopes of boosting consumption, from subsidies for car buyers to shopping vouchers, far more money and attention has been directed towards infrastructure as a way of stimulating the economy.

Stability has been the key theme for China's policymakers this year, experts say, as President Xi Jinping gears up for a third leadership term at next month's congress of the ruling Communist Party.

"In the past, when you had economic slowdown, consumers were more likely to feel that government policy is going to fix this problem very quickly," said Cavender at CMR. "I think right now the challenge is when you interview younger consumers they really don't know what the future holds."

Fu, the marketing professional, said she has deferred plans to sell her two small apartments to buy a bigger one in a better school district for her son, and has given up for now on upgrading from her Volkswagen Golf.

"Why do I dare not upgrade my house and my car, even if I have the money?" she said. "Everything is unknown."

(Reporting by Albee Zhang and Tony Munroe; Editing by Bill Rigby)
Everyone is wrong about the future of remote work


COROIMAGE via Getty Images

Steve Mollman
Sat, September 17, 2022 

Bosses and employees are in a tug-of-war over where work will be done. CEOs eager for a return to the office suggest full-blown remote work is coming to an end. Employees insist it’s here to stay despite pandemic fears fading.

Both sides are right. Data released this month suggests the long-predicted return to office (RTO) is indeed starting to happen, after several false starts. But just how far it goes remains to be seen, and few expect a return to pre-pandemic normalcy anytime soon.

“September feels more like the real return to the office that has been touted for two and a half years now,” Peter Greenspan, WeWork’s global head of real estate, told Bloomberg this week. “You've heard, ‘Return to the office, return to the office, now it's after this holiday, now it's after this summer.’" But new data from his firm, he said, suggests a “stronger return to the office than the previous ones.”

In the week after Labor Day, bookings at WeWork’s 700 office locations worldwide rose 20% compared to the weekly average, while keycard swipes internationally rose 70% compared to the same year-ago period.

Offices in New York City, meanwhile, were nearly half full this week, compared to 38% the week before and 34.5% two weeks earlier. That’s according to Kastle Systems, a security firm that tracks keycard swipes in offices across the U.S. It also reports that office occupancy nationwide has remained steady at around 40% of pre-pandemic levels since the spring. That’s hardly back to normal, but the firm is confident those levels will “rise in the months to come,” according to its website.

Return-to-office demands

CEOs, meanwhile, increasingly diss remote work, suggest its days are numbered, and insist workers get back to the office.

Earlier this month, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said his firm would “be taking a harder line as to how we bring our employees back.” Workers were told they needed to come into the office three days a week, with exceptions being rare and needing “formal approval.” Remote work, Fink argued, was one reason for falling labor productivity in the U.S.—and RTO would help bring down the nation’s record inflation.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk now receives detailed weekly reports on absenteeism, according to CNBC, after saying in May that “remote work is no longer acceptable.” Workers unhappy with the change, he added at the time, should “pretend to work somewhere else.”

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, meanwhile, continued his long-running criticism of remote work last month, saying it creates an environment that’s less honest and more prone to procrastination. In April his firm said that about half of employees must return to the office full time, and the remaining 40% can split their time, with three days of in-person work per week the general expectation.

Remote-work believers

Companies are trying to entice workers back to the office with various perks, but there’s little indication that workers will fill offices the way they did before the pandemic—or want to.

This summer the Future Forum Pulse—a survey of over 10,000 knowledge workers across the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Japan, and the U.K.—found that just 20% of them wanted to be in the office full-time, the lowest point in two years of surveying.

“Today’s workplace environment is centered around flexibility,” said Brian Elliott, executive leader of Future Forum. “Employees without it remain at a strong risk of attrition.”

And despite Musk’s “pretend to work” dig, many employees insist they are more (or just as) productive working at home, away from distracting offices. According to a survey released this week by Partnership for New York City, that was the top reason employers gave for why their employees were negative on returning to the office.

A workforce “culture change”

Looming over the RTO battle of wills is the economy. A recession could change the power equation and force more workers back to the office. “Employees will recognize as we go into a recession, or as things get a little tighter, that you have to do what it takes to keep your job and to earn a living,” real estate developer Stephen Ross predicted in June.

Whether that prediction holds true and where the economy goes remain to be seen. But the pandemic might have changed things so profoundly that even a recession might not restore the previous order.

"You have a global event that has fundamentally changed the workforce,” author and futurist Brian David Johnson told Fortune this month. “What we’re grappling with is a culture change.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
HINDUTVA IS MISOGYNY & CASTISM
Lakhimpur: India family shattered by rape and murder of Dalit sisters


BBC, Fri, September 16, 2022 

Days after two sisters were found hanging from a tree in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, a post-mortem has reportedly confirmed that the girls were raped and murdered. The BBC's Geeta Pandey reports from the girls' village in Lakhimpur district where their families are trying to come to terms with their colossal loss.

Torrential rains have lashed the region since Wednesday night, muddying the narrow path to their home in Tamoli Purva village, just over 200km (124 miles) from the state capital Lucknow.

The gloom inside the two-room home perfectly mirrors the grey skies outside.

Here sits the Dalit (formerly known as untouchables) family of two sisters - 17 and 15 - whose lives were brutally cut short, when they were raped and strangled to death in a sugarcane field, not far away from their home.


Their mother, the only witness to her daughters' kidnappings by three men who came on a motorbike on Wednesday afternoon, sits on a rope bed, surrounded by female relatives.

She is inconsolable.

"My daughters are gone. How will I live now?" she asks, tears rolling down her cheeks. "They lived here," she says patting her heart.

A minute later, sorrow gives way to anger. "I want to see all those men hanged, just the way they hanged my daughters," she says.

The victims' bodies were discovered hanging from a tree in a nearby field

Six men have been arrested for the gang rape and murder of the girls. One of them is a neighbour and the remaining five are Muslims from a nearby village.

The murders have shone the spotlight again on the sexual violence faced by India's 80 million Dalit women, a community that is at the bottom of India's deeply discriminatory caste hierarchy.

In the past, authorities in several parts of the country have been accused of not acting fast enough in cases of crimes against Dalits.

Several politicians and NGOs have been visiting the family

This time too the police investigation has roused suspicions and triggered protests by locals and opposition parties.

The state government, led by chief minister Yogi Adityanath, has offered compensation for the family and also promised that the case would be heard in a fast-track court.

Police say the sisters were in relationships with two of the men who murdered the girls because they were putting pressure on them to marry them.

But the claim is strongly contested by the family and relatives. They remember the girls with warmth and affection.

The older had dropped out of school to take care of home and hearth because of their mother's ill health.

"She would cook and clean and do all the chores and look after me," says their mother who had a surgery six months ago.

The younger was the "studious sort" who was studying in the 10th grade in a school in a nearby town.

"She wanted to study a lot," said their father, a day wage labourer who earned 250 rupees ($3.14; £2.75) a day. "I had promised her that I would help her complete high school."

Living in a small village, the sisters had few opportunities, but their family say, that they were talented and nurtured dreams.

The 17-year-old had a talent for stitching clothes. Her older brother says he used to take her to a nearby village over four months as she learnt sewing.

After he started working, first in Himachal Pradesh and then in Delhi, he bought her a sewing machine during the festival of Holi in March.

Their mother shows off her pink blouse. "My daughter made it for me," she says.

The 15-year-old was fond of art, she says, leafing through her youngest daughter's drawing book.

There are few pictures of the sisters. The family say they did not have mobile phones, but they show me one passport size photograph of the 15-year-old.

The younger daughter was a bit of an artist who loved to draw and paint

The girl, pictured against a white background, sports two long pigtails and there's just a hint of a smile.

"She was the ambitious one. She wanted to study and work. She wanted to open a beauty parlour," says an aunt.

Those dreams are now lost forever, says their brother.

The entire neighbourhood is rattled by the murders

"I saw them when I came home during the festival of Rakhi in August," he says, adding that the family celebrated the Hindu festival with much joy and laughter.

"We were all so happy. We never thought that something like this could ever happen in our village. My sisters lived a very protected life, they never went anywhere alone," he says.

"If it can happen to us, it can happen to anyone."
Migrants across Canada call on Ottawa for action on regularization, permanent status

TORONTO — Thousands of migrants and their supporters held rallies across Canadian cities on Sunday to call on Ottawa to extend permanent status to undocumented people.


Migrants across Canada call on Ottawa for action on regularization, permanent status© Provided by The Canadian Press

There were also calls to swiftly implement an inclusive regularization program for undocumented migrants — a longstanding demand that advocates say appears closer than ever to becoming a reality based on recent moves by the federal Liberal government.

Syed Hussan, executive director of the Migrant Workers Alliance for Change, said it's an opportune moment for Ottawa to listen to his group's calls for more access to basic rights for undocumented people in Canada.

"We have a historic opportunity right now to fix a wrong that has been going on for many, many years," he said by phone before heading to a planned afternoon rally in Toronto.

"We want to make sure that parliament does not in any way delay."

Ottawa launched a regularization program during the COVID-19 pandemic for asylum seekers who worked in the health sector. Since then, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has indicated interest in expanding the initiative.

A mandate letter from December 2021 asked Trudeau's immigration and citizenship minister to "build on existing pilot programs to further explore ways of regularizing status for undocumented workers who are contributing to Canadian communities."

Hussan said the program should include all undocumented people and argued it should be a focus for the government as parliament prepares to return next week.

"Prime Minister Trudeau has already indicated that he wants to do the right thing. The question now is, only, will everyone be included," Hussan said.

"We believe that equality is equality, any exclusion is discrimination, so each and every migrant worker or refugee, student and undocumented person should be included."

A spokeswoman for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Minister Sean Fraser said work to deliver on the mandate commitment on regularizing status for undocumented workers is ongoing as the ministry engages with experts and stakeholders.

Aidan Strickland said future policy decisions will be based on lessons learned from recent programs like the one for asylum seekers working in health-care during the pandemic.

“As we emerge from the pandemic, IRCC will continue to explore new avenues to help more foreign nationals already living in Canada to make this their permanent home,” Strickland said in an email.

“While we cannot speculate on future policy decisions, this is an opportunity for us to look at best practices and lessons learned from our previous experiences to ensure the most inclusive and effective public policy.”

Hussan said he expected thousands of people in total attend the rallies and marches planned in 13 cities including Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, Vancouver, Fredericton and St. John's, N.L.

Heavy rain did not deter hundreds of people from gathering in a Toronto park with umbrellas and signs calling on the government to extend "status for all" — a mantra repeated in chants and speeches throughout the afternoon event.

Labour groups and unions were also in attendance waving signs.

Several migrants, including farm and health-care workers, shared their stories before the group marched to rally outside Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland's downtown constituency office.

Nineteen-year-old Merari Borgez, who moved to Toronto from Mexico City as a child, told the crowd about how her family struggled to access health-care and education and were unable to travel and say goodbye to relatives due to their lack of status in Canada.

"Living without status is dehumanizing," she said, calling on politicians to work quickly on extending status to families like hers. "We don't want pity. We want action."

Similar days of national protest have been held on the issue of migrant status, but Hussan said Sunday's events were expected to be larger as momentum for the cause has grown in recent years.

That's partly due to a growing number of undocumented people who are organizing for more rights, he said, as well as a renewed spotlight placed on inequalities they faced in essential jobs during the pandemic.

He said calls for status and regularization would give undocumented working people in Canada rights to advocate for better work, study and living conditions, as well as to access universal health-care.

The measures would also give people more labour mobility and improve work conditions, he said.

Caroline Michael, an undocumented health-care worker in Toronto, also joined the calls for permanent status.

At Sunday's event, she shared challenges she's faced as a refugee looking to remain in Canada. After being denied various applications for status, Michael said regularization is her last option.

She said she has been asked to pay for health-care services and her situation has deeply affected her mental health, but she is not able to take time off from the hospital where she works due to her status.

"This is like (you are) in prison. You're being held captive," she said. She called on parliament to extend permanent status to all migrants, including herself and others who have been working on the frontlines during COVID-19.

"Why should we be treated this way," she told the crowd. "All human beings deserve to be treated rightly. We have the right to live happily in Canada."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2022.

Holly McKenzie-Sutter, The Canadian Press
SURVEILLANCE CAPITALI$M
More Bosses Are Spying on Quiet Quitters. 
It Could Backfire.











Christopher Mims, WSJ
SEPTEMBER 17, 2022

In the battle towards “quiet quitting” and different obstacles to productiveness within the office, corporations are more and more turning to an array of subtle instruments to observe and analyze how staff do their jobs. The sobering information for America’s bosses: These applied sciences can fall wanting their guarantees, and even be counterproductive.

Patchy proof for the effectiveness of office monitoring tech hasn’t stopped it from sweeping by way of U.S. corporations over the previous 2½ years. Since the beginning of the pandemic, one in three medium-to-large U.S. corporations has adopted some form of employee surveillance system, and the overall fraction utilizing such methods is now two in three, says Brian Kropp, vice chairman of HR analysis at Gartner.

While there’s a broad spectrum of how these methods work and what information they collect, a lot of them embrace fixed monitoring of almost every little thing employees do on their gadgets.

That is a tempo of adoption that’s uncommon within the historical past of know-how—even on the steepest a part of the curve of its embrace by Americans, not even the smartphone unfold as rapidly. This technological shift is especially jarring for white collar employees who’ve tended to have better leeway of their work practices than blue-collar employees who must punch time clocks.


In altering the very nature of labor, how it’s perceived by these doing it, and what corporations can anticipate of employees, this shift has the potential to symbolize a profound unbalancing of the ability between worker and employer, say those that examine it and even some throughout the business who create it.

Intra-office surveillance capitalism

By legislation, what information employers can collect on staff is very broad. There is software program that may take a screenshot of a employee’s laptop each 10 minutes, whereas additionally recording what apps and web sites that employee visited, and the way lengthy she stayed. Critics of this type of monitoring have nicknamed these methods “bossware” and deride them as a brand new type of morale-eroding micromanagement, like having your supervisor look over your shoulder at each second of the day.

Gathering this a lot information about what a employee does all day typically requires what are known as “agent-based” methods, through which a chunk of software program is put in on a company-issued machine. Such methods can have full entry to every little thing that occurs on a pc, pill or telephone. (This is, not by the way, how essentially the most subtle types of adware utilized by nation-states seize information from the gadgets of targets.) Examples of this type of software program embrace ActivTrak and Teramind.

“Realistically, the vast majority of customers don’t find the need to enable full monitoring on all users all the time,” says Isaac Kohen, vice chairman of analysis and growth at Teramind. The firm’s software program is designed to mechanically report or flag person conduct if an worker does one thing untoward, equivalent to emailing firm secrets and techniques to a competitor, or spending all day on Facebook. But it’s completely as much as employers methods to use the system, and what guidelines to determine. “Unfortunately, due to the nature of Teramind, the system can be abused if placed in the wrong hands,” he provides.

ActivTrak says on its web site that it has “evolved from an employee monitoring tool to a privacy-conscious, powerful productivity platform.” This means its software program now consists of privateness controls and anonymized, aggregated information, says an organization spokeswoman. Unlike related instruments, ActivTrak doesn’t help keystroke logging, digital camera entry, video recording or e-mail studying or counting, she provides.

Prodoscore’s dashboard can present worker exercise all through the workday, together with when they’re utilizing apps and providers like Gmail and LinkedIn, and when they’re sending messages. From these information and others, the corporate generates a composite rating of the worker’s productiveness.

At the opposite finish of the spectrum are methods which might be extra acquainted to workplace employees, equivalent to Google Workspace and Microsoft 365. These collect information, however intentionally restrict how a lot and what sort. Both enable a senior administrator in a company with applicable privileges to see which purposes inside these methods an worker makes use of, and the way typically, however could obscure the worker’s identification and provide information solely over a interval of weeks, not days or hours. For some providers, extra detailed information, like what number of messages or emails are despatched and when, might be extracted. Notably, nevertheless, these methods aren’t able to the all-encompassing monitoring that agent-based ones do. They can’t observe each keystroke, or take screenshots of a employee’s machine, for instance.

Microsoft has taken pains to make employee-level information and exercise inside its apps troublesome even for IT directors to entry, says an organization spokesman. Microsoft doesn’t consider that exercise is identical factor as productiveness, and organizations must be cautious about monitoring the unsuitable sorts of issues in an effort to assess worker efficiency, he provides.

Companies like Prodoscore take the information frequent enterprise purposes collect and parse it in ways in which the makers of these purposes typically don’t. David Powell, president of Prodoscore, says the road that marks the place “creepy” worker monitoring begins and ends is that this: All of the information Prodoscore makes use of is already gathered by the cloud-based software program suites corporations use, and is obtainable by way of APIs, that are connection factors for software program.

Even with this restricted information, Prodoscore can create for bosses an extremely detailed breakdown of exactly what Prodoscore-connected providers an worker is utilizing, when, and whether or not from the workplace or outdoors it. The firm’s software program may even chart that employee’s productiveness throughout time, digesting all of it right into a single rating, which Mr. Powell compares to a credit score report, however for work. While the service is meant to assist bosses acknowledge distinctive effort in some staff, and to teach others whose productiveness could also be falling beneath their historic common, this degree of knowledge may very well be misused, if a supervisor have been to be overly reliant on it.

“We think of it like a gun,” says Mr. Powell. “It can be used for good or bad.”

Fierce debate about usefulness


For a comparatively sophisticated and probably intrusive know-how to be so heartily embraced by so many firm leaders, you’d suppose there can be overwhelming proof that it delivers on its guarantees. But there is no such thing as a unbiased, peer-reviewed analysis displaying that it does, say Antonio Aloisi and Valerio De Stefano, professors who just lately combed the literature on this topic for his or her guide, “Your Boss Is an Algorithm,” in regards to the rising phenomenon of administration by software program.

“There is definitely no study pointing out that this increases productivity in any meaningful way,” says Dr. Aloisi, who relies in Madrid.

Ben Waber is president of Humanyze, an organization that makes use of information to evaluate organizational well being over lengthy intervals of time, with out permitting managers to trace particular person staff. He says that methods centered on quantifying issues like when a person worker is sitting at their desk, and what number of emails they ship daily, must be considered with excessive skepticism. “There is no research showing that those kinds of things have any correlation with any outcome that employers care about,” provides Mr. Waber.

Adrian Reece, principal information scientist at Prodoscore, says that the tutorial literature on productiveness monitoring instruments is split into two camps. One finds that such instruments enhance accountability at work and will help folks set and observe their progress towards targets. The different camp argues these instruments are ethically doubtful, inequitable, and result in a sense of low private company, which might lower productiveness.

Systems that merely observe whether or not employees are logged in and at their desks, and ding them for not being related, may cause employees elevated stress, in response to various research, says Dr. De Stefano.

For instance, one 2020 survey of two,100 name middle employees throughout seven corporations discovered that extra intensive monitoring of employees—together with recording keystrokes and monitoring on-line exercise—was related to elevated stress, decrease job satisfaction, larger absenteeism, and extra need to give up.

In a 2020 survey of greater than 2,000 of its members, the UK’s Trade Union Council discovered that 56% mentioned the introduction of latest employee monitoring methods had broken belief between employees and employers.

There can be proof, provides Dr. De Stefano, that introducing these methods can encourage customers to recreation the methods themselves, somewhat than doing their precise jobs.
The value of working from residence

In some methods, what’s occurring right here is that corporations are conducting a huge analysis experiment on their staff with out essentially being outfitted to grasp the information their worker-surveillance methods produce. Only about one in three medium-to-large corporations has an analytics and information science workforce able to parsing the form of information these methods spit out, says Mr. Kropp of Gartner.

However staff really feel about elevated monitoring of how they do their work, they could not have a lot alternative about it, as extra corporations make working from residence contingent on worker acceptance of monitoring. One Prodoscore consumer that just lately shifted to distant work specified that staff who wished to do business from home had to make use of Prodoscore, says Mr. Powell. In the primary month, 80% of the corporate’s staff, or 3,200 of them, opted in, he provides.

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Write to Christopher Mims at christopher.mims@wsj.com
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