Friday, September 23, 2022

UK 

‘A budget for the 1%’: government accused of huge tax cut for super-wealthy

Kwasi Kwarteng delivers his mini-budget statement on Friday. 
Photograph: Jessica Taylor/House of Commons/Reuters

The government stands accused of introducing a “simply staggering, huge tax cut for richer households” that will leave “the super-wealthy laughing all the way to the actual bank”, while allowing hundreds of thousands of already-struggling families to fall deeper into poverty.

On Friday, Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, announced a string of tax giveaways and other measures that economists and campaigners claim will hugely benefit the super-rich at the expense of hardworking people.

The measures include:

  • Scrapping the 45p additional tax rate on earnings above £150,000.

  • Axing the cap on bankers’ bonuses.

  • Scrapping the planned rise in corporation tax to 25%.

  • Doubling the stamp duty “holiday” on property purchases to £250,000.

  • Allowing the overseas wealthy to shop duty free anywhere in the UK – not just at airports.

  • Axing the planned rise in national insurance contributions.

  • Tightening the benefits rules to make it harder for part time workers on universal credit.

The combined package of measures announced in the mini-budget means that someone who currently makes £1m will gain £55,220 a year, while someone earning £20,000 will be just £157 better off, according to calculations by the Resolution Foundation.

Torsten Bell, the chief executive of the thinktank, said the policies “amount to a simply staggering, huge tax cut for richer households”.

Bell described the mini-budget as socially divisive, and said almost 45% of the £45bn worth of tax cuts would “go to the richest 5% alone, who will be £8,560 better off”.

“In contrast, just 12% of the gains will go to the poorest half of households, who will be £230 better off on average next year.”

There are 3,519 bankers working in the UK making more than €1m a year (£880,000) according to the European Banking Authority (EBA). That is more than seven times as many as those in Germany, which has the second highest number of €1m-a-year bankers. The EBA figures show 27 UK bankers made more than €10m in 2019 (the latest year available).

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, said: “The super-wealthy laughing all the way to the actual bank. While increasing numbers of the rest are relying on food banks – all thanks to the incompetence and recklessness of this failed UK government.”

Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank, said the abolition of the 45p tax rate on incomes over £150,000 was “a surprise” that “helps roughly highest income 1%.”

Johnson said combined the measures amounted to “the biggest tax cutting event since 1972”.

Alison Garnham, the chief executive of Child Poverty Action Group, described the budget as “a statement for the 1%” and said it was “more bankers’ bonuses than helping hungry kids”.

“Today was a vital opportunity to provide reassurance and support to those who need it the most,” she said. “But instead the government risks a collision with reality, and the 4 million kids currently living in poverty in the UK will be forced to pay the price.”

Frances O’Grady, the general secretary of the TUC, said: “The government was “making it easier for City bankers to help themselves – making it harder for workers to win better pay and conditions”.

Luke Hildyard, the executive director of the High Pay Centre, a thinktank that focuses on excessive pay, said: “By scrapping the bankers’ bonus cap and cutting tax on the richest 1% of the population, the government is doubling down on a failed economic strategy.

“The richest households in the UK already rake in more than the richest in most European countries.”

He said that instead of “bending over backwards for people who are already extremely well off”, the government should concentrate on “re-balancing income and wealth in favour of low- and middle-income earners”.

James Perry, a multimillionaire and founding member of Patriotic Millionaires, a campaign group calling for higher taxes on the very wealthy, described Kwarteng’s mini-budget as “an abdication of responsibility for sound financial management”.

Perry, who made a fortune from a frozen ready meals company, said that instead of scrapping the high rate of tax Kwarteng should have introduced more taxes on the wealthy.

“We have to deal with the phenomenon of extreme wealth, a vast pool of capital held by a very few. Policies like scrapping the bankers’ bonus cap and the top rate of income tax will do the opposite.

“When 70% of the public are saying it’s time to raise taxes on extreme wealth to invest in our country – and millionaire investors like me agree – why would the government not do the right and obvious thing and get on with it?”

Kwarteng scraps top 45% rate of income tax and cuts stamp duty


Chancellor abolishes cap on banker bonuses, cuts basic income tax and national insurance in mini-budget that favours top earners


Kwasi Kwarteng delivers sweeping cuts in latest mini-budget – video highlights

Phillip Inman and Rowena Mason
Fri 23 Sep 2022 

Kwasi Kwarteng has bet the government’s re-election in 2024 on the biggest tax cuts in 50 years after the UK chancellor announced reductions in the top 45% rate of income tax, national insurance and stamp duty worth £45bn.

Facing accusations of a “class war” mini-budget that rewarded the rich more than those on lower incomes, Kwarteng said his efforts to boost growth and energise the economy included helping all households after he brought forward a planned 1p cut in the basic rate of income tax from 2024 to next year.

The top 45p income tax rate on earnings of more than £150,000 a year will be scrapped, leaving the highest rate at 40p. The main income tax changes predominantly apply in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.


Kwasi Kwarteng announces ‘investment zones’ with huge tax cuts for businesses


The Treasury acknowledged after the budget that about 660,000 of the highest earners will benefit from the scrapping of the 45p rate, getting back on average £10,000 a year.

A Treasury spokesperson said the chancellor “disagreed” that it was a budget for the rich or that it was “trickle-down economics”, but the aim was that “growing the economy benefits everyone”.

A rise in national insurance of 1.25% brought in earlier this year will be reversed, saving households £330 a year.

Thresholds for paying stamp duty – which applies in England and Northern Ireland – will be increased, cutting the tax paid on purchasing homes.

The threshold at which first-time buyers begin to pay stamp duty will increase from £300,000 to £425,000, and the maximum value of a property on which first-time buyers’ relief can be claimed will also increase, from £500,000 to £625,000. The chancellor said the cuts would be permanent.

Kwarteng also confirmed that caps on bankers’ bonuses would be scrapped.

Promising a new era of growth, he said: “High taxes reduce incentives to work and they hinder enterprise.”

Against a backdrop of high inflation and forecasts that Britain faces a long recession, the chancellor cancelled a rise in corporation tax from 19% to 25% next year.

“In the context of the global energy crisis it is entirely appropriate for the government to take action,” he said, adding that “fiscal responsibility remains essential” and he would be allowing the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to examine the Treasury’s spending plans before the end of the year. The OBR, which provides independent economic forecasts based on the government’s plan, was blocked from assessing the mini-budget by Kwarteng.

The Treasury, when asked why it could not produce OBR forecasts, claimed it would not be able to publish full forecasts in time. It admitted there were no forecasts for how much the growth plan would boost growth, or when Kwarteng hoped to reach the 2.5% growth target.

He is reviewing his fiscal rules but these will not be set out at this stage. The Treasury continued to insist it was not a budget, so therefore was not accompanied by the traditional distributional impact showing how the measures would affect the rich and the poor.

Labour described the mini-budget as a “menu without prices” that rewarded better-off households while gambling with the public finances.

Conservative backbenchers gave an extremely muted response to Kwarteng, unusually refraining from cheering or banging their seats behind the chancellor. Several Tory MPs told the Guardian they were worried about the political implications of giving tax cuts to the rich, while providing little help for most of the population with the cost of living beyond the 1p cut in income tax.

In contrast, Labour MPs were outraged by the measures and buoyed by the idea that voters would reject the Tories, with one shadow cabinet minister saying they thought it would “go down like a bucket of sick” in the “red wall” constituencies.

Leftwing Labour MPs Richard Burgon and Paula Barker said Kwarteng’s decision to skew tax cuts to the better-off amounted to a campaign of “class war”.

Financial markets were fearful about the extra borrowing needed to fund Kwarteng’s huge tax cuts, sending the pound plunging below $1.11 for the first time since 1985. The government’s borrowing costs jumped after the two-year borrowing rate doubled from last month to 4%.

Benchmark 10-year gilt prices also weakened, pushing up their yield to the highest since 2011.


British retailers welcome planned return of VAT-free shopping for tourists

Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the tax cuts would cost £41bn in 2024 and £45bn in 2026, making the mini-budget the “biggest tax-cutting event since 1972”.
Recalling the Heath government’s attempt in the early 1970s to boost growth with huge tax cuts orchestrated by the then chancellor, Tony Barber, Johnson said: “Barber’s ‘dash for growth’ then ended in disaster. That budget is now known as the worst of modern times. Genuinely, I hope this one works very much better.”

Kwarteng also announced planned rises in beer, wine and spirit duties would be cancelled and said he would cut welfare benefits if unemployed people failed to comply with the requirements to search for a job.

He said it was outrageous that strikes were bringing vital services to a halt. He said he would bring forward legislation making it illegal to hold a strike from taking place until “talks have genuinely broken down”.

A sea change for plastic pollution: New material biodegrades in ocean water

Marine microorganisms found to feast on new polyurethane materials used in sustainable shoes

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SAN DIEGO

Biodegradable shoe in ocean water 

IMAGE: A SUSTAINABLE BLUEVIEW SHOE BIODEGRADES IN OCEAN WATER AFTER 11 WEEKS. view more 

CREDIT: DANIEL ZHEN, ALGENESIS INC.


Plastics, now ubiquitous in the modern world, have become a rising threat to human and environmental health. Around the planet, evidence of plastic pollution stretches from grocery bags in the deep sea to microplastics in our food supplies and even in our blood.

Seeking solutions to counteract the rise in plastic trash, scientists at the University of California San Diego have developed new biodegradable materials that are designed to replace conventionally used plastic. After proving their polyurethane foams biodegrade in land-based composts, an interdisciplinary team of scientists including UC San Diego biologist Stephen Mayfield and chemists Michael Burkart and Robert “Skip” Pomeroy have now shown that the material biodegrades in seawater. The results are published in the journal Science of the Total Environment.

The researchers are working to address a plastic pollution problem now described as a global environmental crisis. In 2010, researchers estimated that 8 billion kilograms of plastic enter the ocean in a single year, with a steep escalation predicted by 2025. Upon entering the ocean, plastic waste disrupts marine ecosystems, migrates to central locations and forms trash gyres such as the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, which covers an area more than 1.6 million square kilometers. These plastics never degrade, but rather break up into ever-smaller particles, eventually becoming microplastics that persist in the environment for centuries.

Working with study coauthor Samantha Clements, a marine biologist and scientific diver at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the UC San Diego researchers conducted a series of tests of their biodegradable polyurethane materials—currently used as foams in the first commercially available biodegradable shoes (sold by a spinoff company called Blueview)—at Scripps’ Ellen Browning Scripps Memorial Pier and Experimental Aquarium. The pier’s location provided scientists the access and a unique opportunity to test materials in the natural nearshore ecosystem, which is the exact environment where rogue plastics are most likely to end up.

The team found that an assortment of marine organisms colonizes on the polyurethane foam and biodegrades the material back to their starting chemicals, which are consumed as nutrients by these microorganisms, in the ocean environment. Data from the study suggest that the microorganisms, a mix of bacteria and fungi, live throughout the natural marine environment.

“Improper disposal of plastic in the ocean breaks down into microplastics and has become an enormous environmental problem,” said Mayfield, a professor in the School of Biological Sciences and director of the California Center for Algae Biotechnology. “We’ve shown that it’s absolutely possible to make high performance plastic products that also can degrade in the ocean. Plastics should not be going into the ocean in the first place, but if they do, this material becomes food for microorganisms and not plastic trash and microplastics that harm aquatic life.”

Shoes, including flip-flops, the world’s most popular shoe, make up a large percentage of plastic waste that ends up in the world’s oceans and landfills. To fully test and analyze their polyurethane materials, developed at UC San Diego over the last eight years, the study joined experts in biology, polymer and synthetic chemistry and marine science. Foam samples were exposed to tidal and wave dynamics and tracked for molecular and physical changes using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy. The results showed that the material started to degraded in as little as four weeks.  The researchers then identified microorganisms from six marine sites around San Diego that are capable of breaking down and consuming the polyurethane material.

“No single discipline can address these universal environmental problems but we’ve developed an integrated solution that works on land—and now we know also biodegrades in the ocean,” said Mayfield. “I was surprised to see just how many organisms colonize on these foams in the ocean. It becomes something like a microbial reef.”

The full list of coauthors of the paper are: Natasha Gunawan, Marissa Tessman, Daniel Zhen, Lindsey Johnson, Payton Evans, Samantha Clements, Robert Pomeroy, Michael Burkart, Ryan Simkovsky and Stephen Mayfield. A U. S. Department of Energy grant (DE-SC0019986) to Algenesis Inc. supported the research.

Competing interest note: Burkart, Mayfield and Pomeroy are founders of and hold equity interests in Algenesis Inc., a company that could benefit from this research. Also, Gunawan, Tessman, Zhen, Johnson and Simkovsky are employees and shareholders of Algenesis.

The researchers studied polyurethane foams submerged at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Pier.

CREDIT

Samantha Clements, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego

A sustainable Blueview shoe is shown biodegrading in seawater after being submerged for 12 weeks.

CREDIT

Daniel Zhen, Algenesis Inc.

Disclaimer: AAAS and Eurek

Anthropogenic air pollution more significant than desert dust

In the Middle East, more than 90 percent of the fine aerosol particles that are detrimental to health and the climate originate from human-made sources

Peer-Reviewed Publication

MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR CHEMISTRY

In 2017, an international team headed by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry travelled around the Arabian Peninsula on a research vessel in a spectacular expedition. Various measuring instruments were kept on board to sample aerosol particles and trace gases such as ozone and nitric oxides. The researchers also discovered that the Suez Canal, the northern Red Sea and especially the Arabian Gulf are regional hotspots for ozone; the exceptionally strong concentration of ozone in these areas indicates that the harmful gas is also a problem in other densely populated regions of the Arabian Peninsula. Furthermore, the scientists found that concentrations of nitrogen oxides were significantly higher than the WHO guidelines.

"There are relatively few measurements from the region around the Arabian Peninsula and in the Middle East in general. That is why this research campaign is so important," says Sergey Osipov, an atmospheric physicist at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) in Saudi Arabia. “We used the data in atmospheric chemistry models in order to draw conclusions about general air quality and health consequences.”

Air pollution in the Middle East leads to high mortality rates

"The thresholds for particulate matter are constantly exceeded in the region, which is home to 400 million people," says Jos Lelieveld, director at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and project leader. “While the measurements have been performed several years ago, looking into the data more closely with new atmospheric modeling tools surprisingly showed that the health hazardous fraction of the pollution particles is almost exclusively human-made”. In addition to numerous researchers from Mainz, scientists from Kuwait, the Cyprus Institute, as well as from Saudi Arabia, France and the USA were also involved in the project. "The extreme air pollution results in an annual excess mortality rate of 745 people per 100,000. It has similar significance to other leading health risk factors, such as high cholesterol and tobacco smoking, and is also comparable to the mortality rate of COVID-19," adds the atmospheric scientist, who is also a professor at the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia. Given that anthropogenic air pollution is a key factor in climate change in the Middle East as well, measures to reduce emissions are all the more important, he said.

Study findings suggest association between exposure to air pollution -- particularly in the first 5 years of life -- and alterations in brain structure

Experts have assessed, for the first time, children’s exposure to air pollution from conception to 8.5 years of age on a monthly basis

Peer-Reviewed Publication

BARCELONA INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL HEALTH (ISGLOBAL)

A study published in the journal Environmental Pollution has found an association, in children aged 9‑12, between exposure to air pollutants in the womb and during the first 8.5 years of life and alterations in white matter structural connectivity in the brain. The greater the child’s exposure before age 5, the greater the brain structure alteration observed in preadolescence.The study was led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), a research centre supported by the ”la Caixa” Foundation.
 
Tracts or bundles of cerebral white matter ensure structural connectivity by interconnecting the different areas of the brain. Connectivity can be measured by studying the microstructure of this white matter, a marker of typical brain development. Abnormal white matter microstructure has been associated with psychiatric disorders (e.g., depressive symptoms, anxiety and autism spectrum disorders).
 
In addition to the association between air pollution and white matter microstructure, the study also found a link between specific exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and the volume of the putamen, a brain structure involved in motor function, learning processes and many other functions. As the putamen is a subcortical structure, it has broader and less specialised functions than cortical structures. The study found that the greater the exposure to PM2.5, especially during the first 2 years of life, the greater the volume of the putamen in preadolescence.
 
“A larger putamen has been associated with certain psychiatric disorders (schizophrenia, autism spectrum disorders, and obsessive-compulsive spectrum disorders),” says Anne-Claire Binter, ISGlobal researcher and first author of the study.
 
“The novel aspect of the present study is that it identified periods of susceptibility to air pollution” Binter goes on to explain. "We measured exposure using a finer time scale by analysing the data on a month-by-month basis, unlike previous studies in which data was analysed for trimesters of pregnancy or childhood years. In this study, we analysed the children’s exposure to air pollution from conception to 8.5 years of age on a monthly basis.
 
 
Effects Observed Even at Pollution Levels Complying With European Union Standards
 
Another strong point of this study is that the data analysed came from a large cohort of 3,515 children enrolled in the Generation R Study in Rotterdam (Netherlands).
 
To determine each participant’s exposure to air pollution during the study period, the researchers estimated the daily levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM2.5 absorbance) at their homes during the mother’s pregnancy and until they reached 8.5 years of age. When participants were between 9 and 12 years analysed of age they underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging to examine the structural connectivity and the volumes of various brain structures at that time.
 
The levels of NO2 and PM2.5 recorded in the present study exceeded the annual thresholds limits specified in the current World Health Organization guidelines (10 Âµg/m3 and 5 µg/m3, respectively) but met European Union (EU) standards, an indication that brain development can be affected by exposure to air pollution at levels lower than the current EU air quality limit values.
 
“One of the important conclusions of this study” explains Binter “is that the infant’s brain is particularly susceptible to the effects of air pollution not only during pregnancy, as has been shown in earlier studies, but also during childhood.”
 
"We should follow up and continue to measure the same parameters in this cohort to investigate the possible long-term effects on the brain of exposure to air pollution” concludes Mònica Guxens, ISGlobal researcher and last author of the study.

New study shows higher death toll among Puerto Ricans following Hurricane Maria than reported following 2017 disaster

Findings suggest undercounting of official Hurricane Maria death toll due to those displaced from Puerto Rico by the storm

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE from the UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO

TORONTO, ON – As the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico begins recovery from destruction brought by Hurricane Fiona this past weekend, a new study led by researchers at the University of Toronto (U of T) finds an irregular increase in deaths of Puerto Ricans in the United States in the six-month period after the devastating Hurricane Maria cyclone passed over the island five years ago this week.

With implications for future natural disaster response and reporting, the researchers say the findings suggest an additional 514 deaths should be added to the official estimate of 2,975 deaths caused by Hurricane Maria, due to the displacement of thousands of Puerto Ricans to the U.S. mainland in the aftermath of the disaster.

“Overlooking deaths among displaced hurricane survivors provides an incomplete understanding of the magnitude of the health consequences of natural disasters like Hurricane Maria,” said Gustavo Bobonis, a professor in the Department of Economics in the Faculty of Arts & Science at U of T and a co-author of a study published in the BMJ Open. “Doing so affects society’s ability to remediate and proactively craft a readiness plan for the next disaster, which, unfortunately, is precisely what Puerto Rico is facing again.”

Bobonis, along with recent U of T PhD graduate Boriana Miloucheva and Mario Marazzi, former executive director of the Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics, examined death register data from the National Vital Statistics System maintained by the National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, together with population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. They found that between October 2017 and March 2018, the mortality rate of people of Puerto Rican origin in the U. S. was 3.7% higher than in preceding years.

“In absolute terms, this amounts to 514 additional deaths over that six-month period,” said Miloucheva, who is currently a postdoctoral research associate at the Centre for Health and Wellbeing at Princeton University and an incoming faculty member at the Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation in the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at U of T. “The monthly pattern suggests this effect began just after Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico, gradually increased through the end of 2017, and then fluctuated in a downward trajectory in the beginning of 2018.”

The researchers were prompted by the knowledge that many survivors of the hurricane were displaced to the United States, with some dying while there. As a result, their death certificates were registered in demographic registers on the U.S. mainland and not in Puerto Rico, which has come to be seen as a limitation of the assessment done by researchers at George Washington University that placed the official estimate at 2,975 deaths upon its release in August 2018.

“The excess deaths were concentrated among both men and women aged 65 years and older, many of whom left Puerto Rico due to fears of being unable to obtain adequate health care,” said Marazzi. “Among this age group, the excess deaths were concentrated among people suffering from heart diseases, cancer and diabetes, who ultimately may not have received the care required after arriving in the United States.”

The researchers say that although there were excess deaths in all educational groups, they were more evident among the most vulnerable populations with relatively lower levels of education.

“This is consistent with previous studies – including the official George Washington University study sponsored by the Puerto Rican government – and supports the hypothesis that many of these additional deaths came from people exposed and displaced by Hurricane Maria” said Miloucheva.

The study, which was cited on Twitter by the chief data scientist at the U.S. White House in the wake of Hurricane Fiona as an example of the value of equitable data in fully understanding disaster impacts, is the first to take into account deaths of Puerto Ricans outside of Puerto Rico in the months following Hurricane Maria. The researchers emphasize the importance of being comprehensive when establishing death tolls following such events and cite the inclusion of out of state death certificates in calculating the cost in human lives after Hurricane Katrina made landfall in New Orleans in 2005.

The researchers say the analysis suggests the need for not only equitable disaster preparedness but also the importance of cross-jurisdiction data sharing.

“These already vulnerable populations may face additional hurdles on relocation, such as healthcare disruptions and psychological stressors, which may exacerbate health impacts of the disaster,” said Bobonis. “Receiving jurisdictions would, thus, benefit from an improved understanding of the dynamics of post-disaster displacement and would make possible a timelier surveillance of the mortality consequences of natural disasters in the future.”

– 30 

 

A sarbecovirus found in Russian bats is capable of using human ACE2 to enter cells, and is resistant to the antibodies of people vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2

Peer-Reviewed Publication

PLOS

A sarbecovirus found in Russian bats is capable of using human ACE2 to enter cells, and is resistant to the antibodies of people vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 

IMAGE: RESEARCHERS ASSESSED A SARBECOVIRUS THAT IS FOUND IN RUSSIAN LESSER HORSESHOE BATS AND CAPABLE OF USING HUMAN ACE2 TO ENTER CELLS, AND IS RESISTANT TO THE ANTIBODIES OF PEOPLE VACCINATED AGAINST SARS-COV-2. view more 

CREDIT: JOÃO MANUEL LEMOS LIMA, WIKIMEDIA COMMONS (CC-BY 4.0, HTTPS://CREATIVECOMMONS.ORG/LICENSES/BY/4.0/)

A sarbecovirus found in Russian bats is capable of using human ACE2 to enter cells, and is resistant to the antibodies of people vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2

 

Article URL: http://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1010828

Article Title: An ACE2-dependent Sarbecovirus in Russian bats is resistant to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

Author Countries: United States

Funding: This work was supported by WSU and the Paul G. Allen School for Global Health (ML BG, SNS, SF, SB). Funding for the clinical study specimens was provided under NIH Project U54CA260581-01 (JR, KZ, EN) The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption blasted vast quantities of water vapor into the stratosphere

Peer-Reviewed Publication

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE (AAAS)

The explosive eruption of the underwater volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai in January 2022 injected at least 50 million metric tons of water vapor directly into the stratosphere, potentially increasing the amount of global stratospheric water vapor by more than 5%, according to a new study. The findings suggest that this event has likely initiated an atmospheric response different from that of previous well-studied large volcanic eruptions. Although rare, large volcanic eruptions can eject large amounts of gasses, ash and other particulates high into the atmosphere, where they can influence stratospheric chemistry and dynamics for several years following eruption. In addition to ash, sulfur-containing gasses are often considered the most important gases injected into the stratosphere and can result in a decrease in global climate temperature and accelerated ozone destruction. While it is thought that direct injection of water vapor could help moderate the climate impacts of volcanic aerosols, volcanic eruptions are generally not considered to be a major source for stratospheric water vapor. Even the largest eruptions over the past century have only resulted in minor water vapor injections. According to Holger Vömel and colleagues, however, the hydromagmatic eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai was quite different. Using in situ measurements from radiosondes carried aloft by high-altitude weather balloons, Vömel et al. show that this event injected a massive amount – at least 50 teragrams – of water vapor directly into the stratosphere, potentially increasing stratospheric water vapor by at least 5% on a global average. While the atmospheric impacts of this observationally unprecedented event remain uncertain, the authors suggest that the increased amounts of stratospheric water vapor could contribute to stratospheric cooling and surface warming over the months to come, and that these effects could persist longer than those caused by injected aerosols, which tend to drop out of the stratosphere through gravitational settling.