Archaeologists just dug up a mysterious stone structure older than the pyramids and Stonehenge

Joshua Hawkins - Yesterday - BGR

stonehenge© Provided by BGR

Archaeologists recently discovered a stone age structure they believe to be older than Stonehenge and the Egyptian pyramids found in Giza. The archaeologists believe the structure, which they say is a roundel, was built around 7,000 years ago. They’re also hopeful that research into the structure could provide more information about these ancient and mysterious structures.

Roundels, like the mysterious stone age structure discovered in Prague recently, were constructed between the years of 4600 to 4900 BC. They are some of the oldest structures found in Europe and stand years above ancient and iconic structures like Stonehenge and the pyramids in Egypt.

This newest roundel was discovered in Vinoř, a district in Prague. So far researchers have been able to excavate much of the roundel itself. They say the stone age structure has been very well preserved. Some of the palisade troughs researchers discovered were still intact upon excavation, Radio Prague International reports.


Goseck circle, ancient stone age structure© Provided by BGR

Despite how ancient these structures are, and how prolific they were for the period, researchers and experts are unsure exactly what they were used for. These ancient stone age structures could have been used as centers of trade, or some kind of economic center. It’s also possible they acted as a center for rites of passage or other rituals, some say.

Of course, that isn’t all the researchers found at the scene. They also discovered fragments of pottery, as well as animal bones and hunting tools. Roundels like this stone age structure would have been built before iron became a mainstay in the regions. Ancient structures like this have always been intriguing, too, and mysterious. Scientists only recently learned more about Stonehenge’s origins.

In the past, researchers have excavated more than 200 roundels across Central Europe. One iconic roundel is the Goseck Circle, an ancient observatory found in Germany. Whether or not this stone-age structure served a scientific purpose such as that remains to be seen.

CLASS WAR

Buckle up, America: The Fed wants to put you out of a job

Irina Ivanova - Yesterday 

In case the U.S. economy wasn't hurting enough already, the Federal Reserve has a message for Americans: It's about to get much more painful.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell made that amply clear last week when the central bank projected its benchmark rate hitting 4.4% by the end of the year — even if it causes a recession.

"There will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions," Powell said in his September 21 economic outlook. "We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done."

In plain English, that means unemployment. The Fed forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 4.4% next year, from 3.7% today — a number that implies an additional 1.2 million people losing their jobs.

"I wish there were a painless way to do that," Powell said. "There isn't."
Hurt so good?

Here's the idea behind why boosting the nation's unemployment could cool inflation. With an additional million or two people out of work, the newly unemployed and their families would sharply cut back on spending, while for most people who are still working, wage growth would flatline. When companies assume their labor costs are unlikely to rise, the theory goes, they will stop hiking prices. That, in turn, slows the growth in prices.

"I do anticipate that accomplishing price stability will require slower employment growth and a somewhat higher unemployment rate," Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said Monday in a speech. "And I take very seriously that unemployment is painful, and that its costs have been disproportionately concentrated among groups that have traditionally been marginalized."

But some economists question whether crushing the job market is necessary to bring inflation to heel.

"The Fed clearly wants the labor market to weaken quite sharply. What's not clear to us is why," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a report. He predicted that inflation is set to "plunge" next year as supply chains normalize.

The Fed fears a so-called wage-price spiral, in which workers demand ever-higher pay to stay ahead of inflation and companies pass those higher wage costs on to consumers. But experts disagree that wages are the main driver of today's red-hot inflation. While worker pay has risen an average of 5.5% over the last year, it's been eclipsed by even higher price increases. At least half of today's inflation comes from supply-chain issues, noted former Fed economist Claudia Sahm in a tweet.

Sahm noted that lower-wage workers today have both benefitted the most from pay increases and been hurt the most by inflation — while that inflation is driven by higher spending by wealthy households rather than people lower down the ladder.

Rising rates, falling jobs

While the exact relationship between wages and inflation remains under debate, economists are much clearer on how raising interest rates puts people out of work.

When rates rise, "Any consumer item that people take on debt to buy — whether that's automobiles or washing machines — gets more expensive," said Josh Bivens, research director at the Economic Policy Institute.

That means less work for the people making those cars and washing machines, and eventually, layoffs. Other parts of the economy sensitive to interest rates, such as construction, home sales and mortgage refinancing, also slow down, affecting employment in that sector.

In addition, people travel less, leading hotels to reduce staffing to account for lower occupancy rates. Businesses looking to expand — say, a coffee shop chain opening a new branch — are more hesitant to do so when borrowing costs are high. And as people spend less on travel, dining out and entertainment, those hoteliers and restaurateurs will have fewer customers to serve and eventually cut back on staff.

"In the service economy, labor is the biggest component of your cost structure, so if you're looking to cut costs, that's where you'll look first," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at the Bleakley Financial Group.

While in Boockvar's view hiking rates is needed, the Fed's tactics strike him as aggressive. "I just have a problem with the [Fed's] rapidity and scale," he said. "They're coming on so fast and strong, I'm just worried the economy and markets can't handle it."


Potential Fed interest rate hike stokes fears of economic downturn

To be sure, high inflation hurts low-income workers the most, since they have the least ability to absorb price increases — a point Powell repeatedly made in his rate-hike argument. But hiking rates won't address the issues most affecting working-class budgets, namely food and energy, said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

"Higher interest rates from the Fed are not going to have much impact on the price of wheat or oil, except insofar as other central banks also raise rates and slow growth elsewhere, in response to the Fed's actions," Baker tweeted on Tuesday.

"By contrast, there is little doubt that people in low-paying jobs will be the ones most likely to endure unemployment or face lower pay as a result of the Fed's rate hikes. It will be retail clerks, restaurant and factory workers who lose their jobs, not doctors, lawyers or economists."

Layoffs ahead

The Fed's existing rate hikes have put about 800,000 job losses in the pipeline, according to predictions from Oxford Economics.

"When we look at 2023, we see almost no net hiring in the first quarter and job losses of over 800,000 or 900,000 in the second and third quarter combined," said Nancy Vanden Houten, Oxford's lead U.S. economist.

Others predict an even harder landing, with Bank of America expecting a peak unemployment rate of 5.6% next year. That would put an additional 3.2 million people out of work above today's levels.

Some policy makers and economists have called out the Fed's aggressive rate hike plans, with Senator Elizabeth Warren saying they "would throw millions of Americans out of work" and Sahm calling them "inexcusable, bordering on dangerous."

Powell promised pain, and many are questioning just how much pain is necessary.

"Inflation will come down quite a bit faster if we actually hit a recession. But the cost of that is going to be much bigger," said Bivens said.

The danger, Bivens said, is that the Fed has set off a runaway train. Once unemployment starts rising sharply, it's hard to make it stop. Rather than neatly halting at the 4.4% rate projected by Fed officials, the jobless numbers could easily keep rising.

"This idea that there's an inflation dial that the Fed can just haul on really hard and leave everything else untouched, that's a fallacy," Bivens said.

Instead of the soft landing for the economy the Fed says it's aiming for, Bivens added, "we are now pointing the plane at the ground pretty hard and hitting the accelerator."

Tweaking the Global Food System Could Feed 1 Billion More People

Monisha Ravisetti - Yesterday - CNET

A record 345 million people worldwide are currently facing acute food insecurity, the United Nations World Food Program reported this year -- or as program head David Beasley grimly summarized, they "are marching to the brink of starvation." And this critical food deficit has only grown in urgency.


Florida residents line up in their cars at a food distribution site in 2020.

 Paul Hennessy/Getty Images
Though food security levels have been dwindling for decades, recent crises have exacerbated the decline.

COVID-19 starkly disrupted food supply chains, deeming 35.5% of the population food insecure for the first time -- particularly among low-income families. Climate change-induced droughts are drying up agricultural land. The war in Ukraine sent fertilizer, cooking oil and grain prices skyrocketing by blocking crucial exports.

It's a complex mess that'll ultimately require a ledger of interventions to remedy in full -- but last week, scientists presented an intriguing way to help alleviate the burden.

It might be prudent, they say, to redirect some resources we use to feed livestock, such as cereal crops and fish suitable for human consumption, back into our food supply pool. The team believes those animals could instead chow down on certain food byproducts humans would typically throw away. Things like sugar beet, citrus pulp and crop residues. And after modeling such adjustments, the researchers calculated it's possible to increase our collective food supply by up to 13% in terms of calories and 15% in terms of protein content.

That's enough to feed about a billion more people.


People wait in line at a food distribution center in Sao Paulo, Brazil, in 2021. 

Victor Moriyama/Bloomberg via Getty Images

"More efficient use of food system byproducts and residues can reduce food-feed competition and increase the global food supply without increasing the use of valuable natural resources," said Vilma Sandström, postdoctoral researcher at Aalto University and first author of a study on the concept published in the journal Nature Food.

This sort of food-feed manipulation tactic, however, isn't exactly a new concept. Scientists have gone back and forth for years on whether livestock consumables can be repurposed, some arguing such competition isn't quite a huge deal.

In 2017, in fact, a separate study found 86% of dry livestock feed, including residues and byproducts, aren't currently edible for humans, so food loss from feeding animals is minimal. Still, according to the team's new study, that leftover 14% may be somewhat bendable to benefit the food supply system overall. Plus, a previous study Sandström and colleagues developed -- about reducing food loss through supply chain management -- outlines how we can increase food supply by about 12%.

"Combined with using byproducts as feed, that would be about one quarter more food," Matti Kummu, an associate professor at Aalto University and co-author of the study, said in a statement.

Perhaps small steps like these will eventually amount to a large dent in the food security crisis.


Theotis Stacy, 64 at the time, takes free food from a community refrigerator in Miami in 2020.

 Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images© Provided by CNET

Is this safe for animals? For us?

Related video: World Animal Protection Gives Away Free Food to Encourage Meat Alternative  Duration 0:46  View on Watch

Two questions naturally arise from the team's proposition.

First, is it ethically wrong to take fresh livestock feed and replace it with crop residues and byproducts shed from food meant for us? Second, is it healthy for us to feast on items traditionally given to animals?

"Food system byproducts and residues are already widely used in animal feeds around the world," Sandström said of the first concern. "What we suggest is to increase this use in regions where there is potential for increase."

She also considers another possible setback: some byproducts might be of lower nutritional quality or contain compounds known to reduce animal productivity. The team's study made sure to model a scenario accounting for this caveat, however, and found "especially in cattle nutrition, it is possible to formulate diets entirely based on non-food-competing feedstuffs, even at very high animal production levels."

With regard to the second concern, Sandström admits that a paradigm shift would be required, if we want to introduce new food options to communities. This is because most fish typically used in livestock feed, for example, are small, bony species we may not be used to eating. But maybe, she suggests, those fish can be canned, cured, dried or processed in special ways they could turn out to be great, low-cost and highly nutritious options for people who can't necessarily access more expensive fish.


Mothers queue to have their children examined by health workers and to receive nutrient pastes at a health center in Paoua, Central African Republic, in 2021.

 Barbara Debout/AFP via Getty Images© Provided by CNET

Nonetheless, the team believes its new global food system plan is a viable way of helping a wide range of people in need. Plus, its blueprint doesn't require any additional resource mining. It just calls for a bit of reframing, which is why the team calls it a sustainable solution, too.

"Currently, the global food system is one of the major causes of environmental degradation," Sandström said. "It occupies more than a third of Earth's terrestrial surface, uses 70% of all freshwater withdrawals and causes 20% to 30% of total climate change emissions."

Supplementing with policy

Even if Sandström and fellow researchers' idea comes to fruition, it's unlikely to be a standalone answer to the pressing problem of global food insecurity.

The team's theoretical excess food supply would be unequally distributed across the world. It'd most likely trickle down to developed countries primarily, instead of the developing countries with a greater need for it.


Social workers prepare and serve food through a plastic curtain at an "olla comun" community kitchen in Santiago, Chile, in 2020. 

Tamara Merino/Bloomberg via Getty Images

In North America, for instance, the study states nearly 20% of livestock feed competes with human food supply, while in Europe, it's about 16%. In Africa, the share of food grade-feed in animal diets is below 4%, and in Latin America, it's 8%.

Thus, it's important to combine a change in animal feeds with other policy measures like improved trade flow and dietary amendments, which is why the study's researchers began analyzing every aspect of how society's food web works in the first place.

They're on a quest to find loopholes, gaps and missed opportunities.

"This was the first time anyone has collected the food and feed flows in this detail globally, from both terrestrial and aquatic systems, and combined them together," Kummu said. "That let us understand how much of the food byproducts and residues is already in use, which was the first step to determining the untapped potential."

Immigration Drives Fastest Canada Population Growth Since 1957

Randy Thanthong-Knight - Yesterday 

(Bloomberg) -- Canada’s population grew at the fastest pace since around the height of the baby boom, with immigration responsible for nearly all of that growth.


Students at the University of British Columbia Vancouver campus during the first week of classes in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, on Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2022. Canada needs to recruit more international students in fields that are facing labor shortages and make it easier for them to become permanent residents, according to Royal Bank of Canada.© Bloomberg

The number of people living in Canada rose by 0.7%, or 284,982, to 38.9 million in the second quarter of 2022, according to Statistics Canada estimates released Wednesday in Ottawa. That’s the highest pace for quarterly growth since 1957 and represents an increase of about 3,100 people per day.

The latest estimates underscore Canada’s ambition in expanding its working-age population quickly by bringing in newcomers to replace aging workers who are leaving the labor force. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has set a target to bring in a record number of new permanent residents -- more than 1.3 million -- over the next three years.

Canada’s pace of population growth is the highest among the Group of Seven. Immigration has been one of the main drivers of the Canadian economy, and accounts for almost all of the nation’s employment growth.

Related video: Census results show growth in Indigenous population around Canada
Duration 1:29  View on Watch

From April 1 to July 1, international migration accounted for a gain of nearly 270,000 people, or 95% of the quarterly growth, the highest increase from international migration since comparable records have existed in 1971. This was in part due to high numbers of asylum claimants and permit holders, including people affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The country’s population grew by 1.8% in the 12-month period that ended June 30.

While Canada has welcoming immigration policies, many newcomers face difficulties getting jobs that match their skills and qualifications. Starting next year, the federal government plans to begin targeting newcomers in specific occupations to ensure better matching with industries suffering the most intense labor shortages.

Read more:
Labor Shortage Has Canada Planning to Pick and Choose Immigrants
Out of Workers, Canada Is Throwing Its Doors Open to Migrants
Scotiabank Urges Canada to Close Immigrant Job-Education Gap
RBC Says Canada Should Tap Foreign Students to Ease Labor Crunch

Canada sees fastest population growth since 1957, driven mostly by immigration: StatCan

Aya Al-Hakim - Yesterday 

Canada has seen its highest population growth rate since the height of the baby boom, mostly driven by immigration, according to Statistics Canada data released Wednesday.

Pedestrians stroll along Spring Garden Road in Halifax on Thursday, Nov. 19, 2020. Canada sees the highest growth in the number of people in Canada of any quarter.

© THE CANADIAN PRESS/Andrew Vaughan

As of July 1, the number of people living in Canada sat at an estimated 38.9 million, an increase of 0.7 per cent, or 284,982 people, from April 1, 2022.

The estimate, marking the highest pace of quarterly growth since 1957, represents an increase of more than 3,100 people per day.

According to Statistics Canada, international migration accounted for 94.5 per cent of this growth, an increase of 269,305 people.

"This was the highest increase from international migration since comparable records have existed," noted Statistics Canada, adding that the majority of growth came from the largest increase in the number of non-permanent residents (+157,310) on record.

"This was due to high numbers of asylum claimants and permit holders (work, study, and other), including people affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine," it added.

Statistics Canada also said the number of immigrants in the second quarter of 2022 (118,114) was the highest in any second quarter since comparable records have existed.

"This follows recent increases in Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada targets and could be the result of catch-up in growth following lower levels of immigration early in the COVID-19 pandemic," it said.

Usha George, a professor at Toronto Metropolitan University and the director of the Toronto Metropolitan Centre for Immigration and Settlement (TMCIS), argued Canada will be taking in more immigrants because of the declining birth rate across the country.

"Definitely immigration is going to be the only source of population growth in Canada," said George in an interview.

Read more:

Immigration rules must change to keep foreign students in Canada: RBC

Related video: Census results show growth in Indigenous population around Canada
Duration 1:29  View on Watch



She referred to projections made by Statistics Canada released on Sept. 8 stating that in 2041, half of the Canadian population will be made up of immigrants and their

 Canadian-born children.

According to Statistics Canada, "immigration is projected to remain the main driver of population growth over the coming decades, continuing a trend that began in the early 1990s."

George said this is important for the economy, but Canada is not prepared for a growing population when it comes to jobs and housing.

"We have a crunch in terms of housing. We also have an issue around appropriate employment for immigrants as they come in," she said.

Video: TIFF films highlights newcomer community

George explained that Canada brings in highly qualified immigrants who are not able to get the jobs they want in their areas of specialization — especially those who are engineers, doctors or nurses.

"That's going to be an ongoing challenge," George said.

She said many of the regulation professions, such as medicine, are semi-independent organizations, which provinces do not have a lot of control over, but hopes that governments would put "soft pressure" on them.

READ MORE: Thousands of students are stuck in Canada’s immigration backlog. What’s being done?

"Some have unreasonable demands," George said, saying that in one of the cases she knows of, in order to qualify as a dentist, an immigrant from India was told she must spend $60,000 to take courses and all the exams necessary to become accredited in Canada.

"(People) don't have that kind of money, so I think we need to simplify the processes that one has to go through in order to qualify themselves for a profession without compromising standards," she said.

George recommends that regulating bodies come up with certified ways of accrediting and helping people enter and practice their professions here, especially as more immigrants will be brought into the country.

"I feel like right now the sentiment in Canada is pro-immigration. Both Conservatives and Liberals acknowledge the importance of immigration to Canada simply because by 2041 ... it's predicted that the entire replacement is going to come from immigration," said Goerge.

She said the entire labour force supply is going to come from immigration, so in order to maintain a competitive and productive economy, it's really important to be aware of the backlash that might come from the public.

"We need to be careful about public sentiment. We need to make sure that there is a sufficient understanding around the importance of immigration for Canada and that the public is aware of how needed it is so that we don't get backlash against immigrants," she added.

According to the government website, Canada aims to welcome 431,645 new permanent residents in 2022, 447,055 in 2023, and 451,000 in 2024.

Statistics Canada said the population increased in all provinces and territories except for the Northwest Territories, where the population decreased by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter.

The highest population growth rates were reported in Prince Edward Island (+1.4 per cent), Nova Scotia (+1.2 per cent) and New Brunswick (+1.1 per cent).

Ontario (-21,008), Manitoba (-2,891), and Saskatchewan (-1,948) saw the highest losses to interprovincial migration in the second quarter, while losses were also seen in Quebec (-429), the Northwest Territories (-244), Nunavut (-41), and Yukon (-32) with many coming from Ontario.

"Ontario had the highest net loss to interprovincial migration in any quarter since at least the third quarter of 1971 and this represents the tenth consecutive quarter of losses for the province," Statistics Canada said.

"The trend of people moving from Ontario to the Maritime provinces seen during the pandemic continues," it added.

Ontario has been the highest supplier of interprovincial migrants to Atlantic Canada in every quarter since the third quarter of 2017, said Statistics Canada.

It also projected in its September data that in 2041 the vast majority of the immigrant population would continue to live in a metropolitan area, while Toronto, Montréal, and Vancouver would remain the three primary areas of residence of immigrants.

Nord Stream sabotage will permanently shift global trade - analysis

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN - 

The destruction of two important pipelines that run from Russia to Europe will likely herald a new global phase of trade as Europe and the West cements its rupture in ties with Russia and becomes more self-reliant. Decades in which European countries sought to tie themselves to Moscow via energy deals and in which they believed that free markets and global trade would make regimes like Russia and China more friendly, have now led to a permanent shift.

A road sign directs traffic towards the Nord Stream 2 gas line landfall facility entrance in Lubmin, Germany, September 10, 2020.

(photo credit: REUTERS/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE/FILE PHOTO)

The reasons for this shift have been a growing trend. The US has been warning for years about the problems with Nord Stream. According to the Nord Stream website, the two “1,224-kilometre offshore pipelines are the most direct connection between the vast gas reserves in Russia and energy markets in the European Union.” Construction on the first line was completed in 2011. This was billed as a “secure gas supply for Europe” and the lines were supposed to transport a combined total of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas a year. But over time the US and other critics became concerned that this would enable Russia to have its hand on the spigot and use energy as a weapon; making Europe too dependent.

The US began sanctioning Nord Stream 2 in 2017. But European countries, especially Germany under Angela Merkel, were in favor of the projects.

Now the pipelines are damaged in a mysterious incident that unfolded over the weekend. It is widely believed to be sabotage and it appears Russia is behind it. It came as a new Baltic pipeline was being inaugurated. It appears to send a message to the West that pipelines and energy are not safe and it is a kind of mafia blackmail where European countries are now being told “you never know when this might happen again.”

A worrying picture


View towards Nord Stream 1 Baltic Sea pipeline and the transfer station of the Baltic Sea Pipeline Link in the industrial area of Lubmin, Germany, August 30, 2022. 

(credit: REUTERS/LISI NIESNER)© Provided by The Jerusalem Post

Headlines on September 29 painted an increasingly worrying picture. CNN says that European security officials say Russian ships were in the waters near the pipeline when the leaks occurred. A fourth leak was discovered on Thursday. According to Reuters “NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday attributed the leaks on the Nord Stream pipelines to acts of sabotage and said he had discussed the protection of critical infrastructure in NATO countries with the Danish defense minister.” Reports say that seismic meters recorded the explosions that damaged the lines. Now there is concern that a new phase of “hybrid war” may be coming and Russia could use these kinds of incidents to upset the global order.

It's worth thinking about what this means globally. Nord Stream was seen as an important project worth tens of billions of dollars. It was mostly financed by banks in Europe and by Gazprom. Reports said that Gazprom’s investments were driven by Moscow’s interests and geopolitics. Moscow was not only working on these lines, bypassing Baltic states and trying to literally get Europe addicted to the line from Moscow directly; but also Russia was moving ahead with Turk Stream, a project under the Black Sea to Turkey. This means that Turkey was also angling with Russia to make Europe dependent.
How does this impact Israel?

This matters also for Israel and the Middle East because Israel, Greece and Cyprus wanted to partner on an East Med line. It’s not a coincidence that Iranian-backed Hezbollah has threatened the Karish gas field off the coast. Iran has exported drones to Hezbollah and Hezbollah has tried to use drones to threaten the infrastructure working the field. Russia is also acquiring Iranian drones and using them against Ukraine. The threat that Hezbollah poses to offshore gas platforms, and which Russia apparently poses to undersea pipelines going to Europe links to related aspects of this hybrid war and shows how non-western regimes may work together to wreak havoc on energy supplies.

The realization that Russia cannot be trusted to supply gas securely to Europe is leading to an earth-shaking once-in-a-generation event; in which global economies which have been marching zombie-like in one direction towards globalization and knitting everyone together; are now moving in a new direction. This regional protectionism is embodied not only by Europe’s shift away from relying on Russian gas, but also embodied by forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; where Russia, China, Turkey, Iran and other regimes recently met. Those countries want to work together and they are almost all authoritarians. Meanwhile, the US, Europe and western states, and their allies in Asia such as Japan, South Korea, and India, want to work together. Israel’s growing ties with the UAE and also with South Korea, with free trade talks resulting in a new deal recently; represent an important step for the global economy and the Eastern Mediterranean. Connecting the dots between Europe, the US, Israel, the UAE, India, Australia, and other countries makes economic sense; but it also showcases how global trade networks are shifting.

 
COVID enters the scene

At the same time the Covid crisis and China’s decision to crack down internally and cut itself off from the world reversed decades of countries' relying on and investing in China. Apple recently shifted some iPhone production to India, according to reports. This is a big shift in manufacturing strategy, CNBC says. Indeed, many companies and countries are now more wary of China. China’s endless lockdowns and chaos and also the crackdowns in Hong Kong and other trends make it unclear how companies and countries can rely on China.

The lack of a full investigation into Covid origins and missteps in handling the outbreak in December and January 2020, means that countries know they can’t rely on an authoritarian regime for their health security, or rely on them for metals and microchips and other things. Now the West and big consumer countries will think twice.

The globalization trend was part of the US-led global world order inaugurated in the 1990s. The end of the Cold War brought economic and political liberalization. Neo-liberal agendas were supposed to wash away protectionism. However, this didn’t work and the global war on terror and other trends sabotaged the march toward a liberal rules-based world order.

Instead, the new world order that George H.W. Bush had promised has turned into an authoritarian world order. Democracies are finally understanding that hitching their economies to Moscow or Beijing can have catastrophic consequences. The damage to Nord Stream is important, symbolic and also will likely usher in a new global economic world order, amid a rise in tensions between the West and Russia.

ECOCIDE
Fourth leak detected at Russian gas pipeline to Europe
Agence France-Presse
September 29, 2022

An aerial photo provided by the Danish Defense Command shows the Nord Stream 2 gas leak near Bornholm. Following the damage to the Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea, authorities in Germany and Denmark continue to search for the cause. 

Danish Defence Command/dpa


A fourth leak has been detected in undersea gas pipelines linking Russia to Europe, the Swedish Coast Guard said Thursday, after explosions were reported earlier this week in what NATO called "reckless" sabotage.

The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines link Russia to Germany, and have been at the centre of geopolitical tensions as Russia cut gas supplies to Europe in suspected retaliation against Western sanctions following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

The Swedish Coast Guard confirmed Thursday there were four leaks in total on the pipeline in the Baltic Sea -- two on the Swedish side and two on the Danish side. Three leaks were previously reported.

While the pipelines -- operated by a consortium majority-owned by Russian gas giant Gazprom -- are not currently in operation, they both still contained gas.


On Thursday, NATO declared that the damage was "the result of deliberate, reckless and irresponsible acts of sabotage".

"These leaks are causing risks to shipping and substantial environmental damage," the Western military alliance said in a statement.

Russia has denied it was behind the explosions -- as did the United States, saying Moscow's suggestion it would damage the pipeline was "ridiculous".

Russia's security service launched an "international terrorism" investigation into the gas leaks, saying the damage had caused "significant economic damage to the Russian Federation".

It said Thursday suspects a foreign state of being behind the leaks.

The UN Security Council will meet Friday to discuss the matter.

'Constant' gas flow

The vast leaks have caused underwater gas plumes, with significant bubbling at the surface of the sea several hundred metres wide, making it impossible to immediately inspect the structures.

Seismic institutes on Tuesday reported they had recorded "in all likelihood" explosions in the area, prior to the leaks being detected.

A Swedish Coast Guard search and rescue vessel was patrolling the area.

"The crew reports that the flow of gas visible on the surface is constant," the agency said in a statement.

Danish authorities said the leaks will continue until the gas in the pipelines is exhausted, which is expected to occur on Sunday.


Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said at a symposium in Paris that to him it was "very obvious" who was behind the leaks.

He said natural gas shortages in the wake of the war in Ukraine could make for a tough winter in Europe.

"In the absence of a major negative surprise, I think Europe, in terms of natural gas, can survive this winter with a lot of bruises in our bodies in terms of prices, economy and social issues, but we can go through that," Birol said.

According to climate groups, Nord Stream 1 and 2 contained some 350,000 tonnes of natural gas -- methane.

Greenpeace says the leaks could have the effect of almost 30 million tonnes of CO2, or more than two-thirds of the annual emissions of Denmark.

© 2022 AFP

Tucker Carlson suggests US blew up Nord Stream pipeline – and lists possible Russian ‘retaliations’

Gino Spocchia - Yesterday 

A Tucker Carlson segment focused on the purported “sabotage” of the Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia and Europe, which the Fox News anchor appeared to blame on the US.


Screenshot 2022-09-28 at 17.46.32.png© Fox News

Speaking following reports of leaks in the Nord Stream pipeline on Tuesday, Mr Carlson suggested that the Biden administration was behind the “sabotage” and act of “environmental terrorism” and warned of a Russian counter-response.

“Blow up the Nord Stream pipelines? OK, we’ve entered a new phase, one in which the United States is directly at war with the largest nuclear power in the world,” said the Fox News anchor.

While the US has not designated the leaks as an act of sabotage, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said the leaks were the result of acts of “sabotage” on the critical piece of energy infrastructure on Tuesday.

Finland, Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom – as well as Russia itself – cited a deliberate attack on the pipeline that prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, supplied Europe with millions of cubic metres of gas annually. Now, that figure is effectively zero.

Citing US opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline connecting Russia and Germany, Mr Carlson suggested that the US president had pre-warned of an attack on the pipeline by playing a clip from a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in February.

Speaking two weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr Biden said “there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2 ... We will bring an end to it”, if Russia did invade and when asked by a reporter how the US could “end” the pipeline, responded, “I promise you, we will be able to do it.”

The Fox News host, who said he did not believe Russia was responsible for the leaks, added: “Notice how he phrased that. He didn’t say, ‘I will pause the delivery of gas from Russia to Germany.’ He said there won’t be a Nord Stream 2. We’ll put an end to it. We’ll take it out. We’ll blow it up.”

He continued: “If you are Vladimir Putin you would have to be a suicidal moron to blow up your own energy pipeline—that’s one thing you would never do...Natural gas pipelines are the main source of your power and wealth. And most critically, your leverage over other countries.”

Despite those remarks, Russia had already stopped gas supplies to Europe and had been operating Nord Stream 1 and 2 at very limited capacity before the leaks occurred, amid sanctions placed on Russia for the war and other retaliations by European governments.

Russia, which Mr Carlson suggested could cut undersea power cables between the US and Europe to cause an economic crisis and “third world” conditions – amid other possible acts of retaliation – said that it would call a United Nations Security Council meeting over the damage.

Ursula von der Leyen says Nord Stream gas pipeline leaks are 'act of sabotage'

Duration 1:00
View on Watch


In the UK, defence sources told The Times that the most likely cause of the leaks were a Russian drone used to detonate holes in the pipes, which are now leaking gas into the Baltic Sea. That remains to be confirmed however.

Mr Carlson’s comments on Russia and Ukraine were not the first to appear sympathetic to, or in line with, Russian president Vladimir Putin after he called Western support for Ukraine “the largest political flashmob in American history” in March.

Clips of Mr Carlson’s Fox News show are meanwhile used on Russian-state owned television to prove Russia’s point over its invasion of Ukraine, which has dragged on for seven months.

From news to politics, travel to sport, culture to climate – The Independent has a host of free newsletters to suit your interests. To find the stories you want to read, and more, in your inbox, click here.

Early signs Canada could be moving towards a wage-price spiral: Economist

Michelle Zadikian - Yesterday -Yahoo Finance Canada


As more employees demand higher salaries in the face of 40-year-high inflation, one economist says there are early signs a wage-price spiral is in the cards.


As more and more workers demand higher pay in the face of sky-high inflation, economists are debating whether Canada is in for a wage-price spiral. 

(R.J. Johnston/Toronto Star via Getty Images)

“I think we're getting some signals that we're moving that way. I think we've avoided one so far, but let's be honest, we've had above-target inflation for 18 months now,” said Warren Lovely, the managing director of economics and strategy at National Bank Financial Markets, said in a phone interview with Yahoo Finance Canada.

“After enough time has passed, when inflation has been so elevated for so long, it's not unreasonable for workers to demand cost of living adjustments and higher wages.”

A new survey from consulting firm Eckler Ltd. found Canadian employers expect the national average base salary to rise 4.2 per cent this year, the highest in two decades. The survey, which was conducted between July and August and polled 269 Canadian firms across various sectors, said the results were similar to 2022 base pay increases.

“I think what we're starting to see more and more evidence of in these surveys and, in fact, in some of the wage agreements that we're seeing, is a little bit more embedding of higher wage increases, which could make this inflation problem more persistent,” Lovely said.

A wage-price spiral, when higher wages and inflation continuously feed into each other, is something the Bank of Canada is trying to avoid.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem issued a word of caution to business owners in July.

“My one bit of advice is, the high inflation we see today is not here to stay. So, when you’re entering into longer-term contracts, don’t expect that inflation is going to stay where it is now. You should expect that it’s going to come down,” Macklem told an audience at a Canadian Federation of Independent Business event at the time.

Lovely said the central bank is “desperate” to prevent a wage-price spiral from taking hold since it requires an even tougher monetary policy response, resulting in greater damage to the economy.

So many of the factors driving inflation have been quite global in nature.Brendon Bernard, senior economist, Indeed.com

While the conditions for stronger wage growth, such as runaway inflation and a persistent labour shortage, have been building for some time, not all economists are convinced the country is headed towards such a spiral.
Related video: 9 in 10 Canadians cutting back on spending amid inflation: Angus Reid survey Duration 1:56   View on Watch

Canadian inflation slows but grocery costs are still soaring

“Looking at where inflation has been really strong and has picked up of late, I don't think, at least the story of inflation so far, has been mainly around a wage-price spiral. So many of the factors driving inflation have been quite global in nature,” said Brendon Bernard, a senior economist at job seeking website Indeed.com, via phone.

He acknowledged that a spiral could develop but added that rapid Bank of Canada interest rate hikes could “short circuit” that process.

The Eckler survey also showed pay increases were the number one way employers plan to attract and retain talent amid a tight labour market.

The push for productivity

Higher wages could also be the final push employers need to ramp up their adoption of machinery and technology, where they have traditionally heavily relied on labour for productivity, the economists said.

Hiring challenges can impact business productivity in a number of ways, according to Bernard, including the implementation of more automation or businesses having to hire less experienced workers and train them on the job.

A study from Statistics Canada released in July 2022 found businesses that faced a labour shortage were nine per cent more likely to plan the adoption of new or additional digital technologies.

“More recently, you know, the productivity data leave a lot to be desired. Now, we're at a stage where there really just doesn't look to be a lot of available workers to plug into the economy to meet that marginal sale or that marginal bit of demand,” Lovely said.

“And if we start to see more persistent wage pressure, if labor becomes more expensive, the one thing that would be reasonable to expect is that businesses might shift their focus, and it might provide the incentive for businesses to invest in that other factor of production: machinery and equipment. And that might eventually see some improvements in productivity.”

Michelle Zadikian is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow her on Twitter @m_zadikian.

Political violence casts a shadow over Brazil’s general election

Agence France-Presse
September 29, 2022

Jair Bolsonaro (AFP:Evaristo SA)

Upcoming elections in Brazil are the most polarized in recent history and also the most radicalized – across the country, the electoral campaign has been marked by physical attacks, death threats and even murder. It is a source of growing concern as the October 2 vote draws closer, with more than 67 percent of the population saying they fear becoming a victim of violence for their political choices, according to a recent survey by the Datafolha polling firm.

“I’m going to send someone to kill you, I know where you live.”

Chico Alencar, a congressional candidate for the left-wing Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL), received this terse Instagram threat a week ago. The author of the threat, a supporter of President Jair Bolsonaro, compared communism – which Bolsonaro partisans believe to be a grave threat to Brazil – to Nazism.

Alencar, a 72-year-old veteran of left-wing politics in Rio de Janeiro, is no stranger to such hostility. Still, the Rio city councillor has taken extra precautions since receiving this threat: He now travels to work in an armored vehicle accompanied by a bodyguard.

Having filed a complaint with the state’s civil police, Alencar met this week with a local official, Fernando Albuquerque, to get an update on the investigation and the possible arrest of his harasser.

“We’re seeing lots of isolated cases that, when you add them up, form a mosaic of shocking violence,” Alencar says. “These attacks are provoked by people who question the legitimacy of the electronic voting system, who denounce electoral fraud, who say that we are evil incarnate. There is unbelievable radicalization. The perception is that political rivals should be eliminated.”

Physical and verbal attacks target not only political candidates and their supporters but also polling firms, which are accused of bias by the Bolsonaro camp. Since the start of the campaign, Datafolha has recorded around a dozen attacks on its field workers across the country.

Politically motivated murder

The radicalization of the campaign has taken a dramatic turn in the last few weeks. At a bar in Cascavel, a small town in the northeastern state of Ceara, one man stabbed another to death on September 24 after the victim announced his support for former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (known as "Lula"). A Bolsonaro supporter was fatally stabbed a day later after a bar fight in the south of the country.

These were politically motivated murders, according to police investigations, adding to the toll of deadly election violence. In the central state of Mato Grosso on September 8, a Bolsonaro supporter killed his pro-Lula colleague after an argument by stabbing him at least 70 times with a knife and an axe. In Foz do Iguaçu in the state of Parana in July, a police officer fatally shot Marcelo Arruda, treasurer for the local branch of the left-wing Workers’ Party, during the victim’s Lula-themed birthday party. Witnesses said the murderer shouted, “This is Bolsonaro territory! Lula is a thief!”

Nine political parties have denounced this escalation of violence with the Superior Electoral Court, the country's highest electoral authority, calling for it to guarantee security on the day of the election and to establish a telephone hotline to report incidents of political violence.

'A population living in fear'

According to Datafolha, 67.5 percent of the population fears being physically attacked for their political beliefs.

“What we have here is a population living in fear. Around 3 percent of the survey respondents, which would be equivalent to 5 million Brazilians, said they have been the victim of political violence,” says Mônica Sodré, a political scientist and director of the Political Action Network for Sustainability, the organization behind the survey.

“This shows the gravity of the situation. We can’t ignore the fact that we have a head of state whose rhetoric is pro-gun and pro-violence. The way a leader behaves and talks has repercussions on how the population interprets this language and behaves,” she adds.

Since he took office in 2019, Bolsonaro has issued more than 40 executive decrees making it easier for civilians to own firearms. The gun market has since exploded, with Brazilians purchasing an average 1,300 firearms per day.

When questioned during a televised debate aired on the SBT channel on September 24, Bolsonaro rejected any responsibility for the violence committed in his name. The famously provocative president initially made light of the situation, comparing political attacks and murders with brawls between rival football fans. He then went on the attack, criticizing journalists for posing the question: “Trying to hold me responsible for this violence is not serious journalism,” he said.

‘High likelihood’ of violence on election day

Sodré says Bolsonaro’s statements could pose a threat to Brazilian democracy itself. “If we live in a system that is no longer capable of guaranteeing people’s security and freedom of expression, thus imperiling lives, democracy is at risk."

Among Brazilian voters, 40 percent believe there is a “high likelihood” of violence on the day of the vote, according to another Datafolha poll. As a result, 9 percent of those surveyed say they are considering not turning out.

Meanwhile, the Superior Electoral Court has authorized the deployment of the armed forces to 568 municipalities on election day to guarantee that Brazilians can freely exercise their right to vote.

The possible reaction of the Bolsonaro camp to any election result they don't like is a real source of concern. The president has already repeatedly questioned the reliability of Brazil's electronic ballots, and his supporters spread more disinformation daily about the possibility of the vote being rigged despite a lack of evidence. The US embassy in Brasilia called Brazil's election system a "model for the world" in July.

It remains unclear whether Bolsonaro will accept the results, given that some polls are now predicting a first-round victory for Lula.

But Sodré says that she finds reassurance in another of the poll’s findings: “90 percent of those surveyed believe that the winner of the election must be sworn in on January 1, 2023, no matter what happens.”

This article has been translated from the original in French.

'They seem stunned': Bloomberg publishes Navy records of Donald Trump’s theatrical visit to Japan

Brandon Gage, Alternet
September 29, 2022


USS John S. McCain (DDG-56) - Wikipedia

Former President Donald Trump's 2019 visit to Japan included an incident involving his ego and an American warship. On Thursday, Bloomberg Business Investigative Reporter Jason Leopold published the White House Military Office's records of the debacle that he obtained after a long-awaited fulfillment of a Freedom of Information Act Request.

Leopold summarizes the partially-redacted emails between officials in the United States Pacific Command and the Navy in a Twitter thread.

View them at this link:

NEW: Remember when Trump took a trip to Japan back in 2019 and reports surfaced that the WH requested the move the USS John McCain out of view so it wouldn't upset Trump? Well, I #FOIA'd the military for docs about this & 3 yrs later they just arrived.

'This just makes me sad'

The White House Military Office passed along a request to keep the USS John McCain out of sight when Trump visited Japan.

How the sequence of events unfolded:

An email describing how the directives to keep the USS John McCain out of sight during Trump's 2019 visit to Japan were passed to US Indo-Pacific Command and the Navy.

Navy officials wanted names of the individuals responsible for requesting the USS John McCain be kept out of view during Trump's visit to Japan. They seem stunned.

All of the White House Military Office emails about the discussions to keep the USS John McCain out of sight during Trump's visit to Japan are classified and redacted except for one.

Trump denied that these events occurred.