Analysis-Investors confident in Brazil staying the course after election


Brazil’s former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a meeting with sports representatives in Sao Paulo

By Rodrigo Campos

Fri, September 30, 2022 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A leftist former union leader is on track to replace Brazil's right-wing president and tear up the most important fiscal rule in the world's 10th largest economy, but foreign investors are largely unfazed.

Their even-keeled outlook for Brazil, where the local currency and stock market have gained this year, reflects confidence that even a highly polarized election will not ruin the relative safe haven of Latin America's largest economy.

Polls suggest former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will beat incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in October's election, possibly even in Sunday's first-round vote, and take office in January.

"We have a broadly positive medium-term view on Brazilian investment opportunities," said Amer Bisat, head of emerging markets fixed income at BlackRock, pointing to an attractive mix of strong corporate earnings, a healthy financial system, plus ample foreign reserves and a current account surplus thanks to strong commodity exports.

Lula, whose Workers Party trod a largely orthodox path while he was in office from 2003-2010, has decried Bolsonaro's policies but both are promising more generous welfare and more flexible budget rules.

Lula spent heavily on welfare programs first time around as a federal budget boosted by a commodities boom gave him room for maneuver. This time he will have less and he has already vowed to do away with a constitutional spending cap.

Yerlan Syzdykov, Amundi's head of emerging markets, said at a recent event that it was troubling to see Lula not respecting Brazil's current fiscal anchor.

"But during the last two years neither did Bolsonaro, so this is not something that's shocking investors."

He said Lula's track record on economic policy meant that any change of regime would not really be a radical one.

Brazil's real is one of the few emerging market currencies gaining against a dollar which more broadly is at multi-decade highs, while both local- and hard-currency bonds are among top performers in their asset class.

GRAPHICS: Brazil sovereign spreads to U.S. Treasuries https://graphics.reuters.com/BRAZIL-ELECTION/BONDS/klpykalzqpg/chart.png

Stocks are also up for the year in the local market and barely down in dollar terms, banks have healthy balance sheets and the job market is on the rebound, while inflation is falling thanks to early and aggressive interest rate hikes.

"The central bank, as an independent institution, has proven its credibility by being one of earliest global central banks to combat inflation with vigor and determination," BlackRock's Bisat said.

Central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto, whose term runs through 2024 under a new law establishing the bank's formal autonomy, oversaw a string of rate hikes effectively front-running the U.S. Federal Reserve and helping to support the real.

Although Workers Party economists gripe about the central bank's newfound independence, Lula has offered assurances that he can work constructively with Campos Neto.

"It's important that he (stays), because otherwise what's the point in having a mandate for the central bank governor that's independent of the political cycle," said Graham Stock, senior emerging sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, noting the opportunity for Lula and his team to show they respect the bank's independence and inflation targeting regime.

Graphics: Emerging market currencies vs USD

 https://graphics.reuters.com/BRAZIL-ECONOMY/REAL/movanexxwpa/chart.png

In what Goldman Sachs called a "hawkish hold", the central bank paused last week after hiking the policy rate from a record-low 2% at the start of last year to 13.75%, with forward guidance hinting at a 'high for long' stance.

"We are seeing high real yields, which is unheard of in the market at the moment," Philip Meier, head of EM debt at Gramercy Funds Management told investors, calling Brazil a "great opportunity" into 2023.

Even with the dollar at 20-year highs against a basket of major currencies, Brazil's real is up 4% this year versus the greenback, the top performing free-floating emerging market currency.

Not all investors are so sanguine and JPMorgan, which cut foreign-denominated Brazilian debt to "underweight" earlier this month, says further upside for the country in global credit markets may be limited.

"Policy and political uncertainties are likely to persist ahead of the October elections, and fiscal/debt dynamics remain a concern," said Lupin Rahman, head of sovereign credit on the EM markets portfolio management team at Pimco.

Graphics: MSCI stock indexes YTD performance 

https://graphics.reuters.com/BRAZIL-ELECTION/STOCKS/jnpwemrwqpw/chart.png

Brazilian stock valuations, however, remain cheap - investors in the MSCI Brazil index pay some $6 for every $1 in earnings, compared to nearly $18 at a 2020 peak.

Investors will be looking for a calm political transition. Bolsonaro has laid the groundwork to contest a defeat but Brazilian institutions are closing ranks to guarantee the integrity of the vote.

Lula could make it hard for Bolsonaro to mount a challenge if he gets more than 50% of valid votes on Sunday, foregoing the need for a second-round runoff on Oct. 30. Several recent polls show the former union leader in striking distance of that threshold.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; additional reporting by Jorgelina do Rosario and Karin Strohecker in London; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

Latest Brazil Polls Upend Market Calm Over Sunday’s Election

Davison Santana, Vinícius Andrade and Josue Leonel
Thu, September 29, 2022 at 11:54 AM·3 min read




(Bloomberg) -- Brazilian markets are losing the calm that had come to characterize them in the run up to Sunday’s presidential election.

The real and local stocks tumbled this week, while swap rates soared after a series of polls showed that Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva may get an outright victory in the first round, avoiding the need for a run-off. That would be the first time any candidate has gained such a resounding endorsement since 1998.

Investors are concerned that such a result would embolden the former president and union leader to take a more hard-line approach once in office. As market jitters mount, foreign investors pulled money out of local stocks in seven of the 10 trading sessions through Sept. 26, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Lula would leave the race stronger and with a smaller need to make concessions” should he win in the first round, said Sergio Zanini, partner, CIO and fund manager at Galapagos Capital in Sao Paulo. It would reduce the need for him to announce market-friendly names for his cabinet with an eye to gaining support in a second round, he said.

The real has tumbled about 2.5% this week, the second worst-performing currency in the world, while long-end swaps are up 47 basis points. The Ibovespa stock index is down about 4%, underperforming the US benchmark S&P 500 Index by a large margin, though it’s still ahead of most main stock indexes worldwide for the year. The net foreign outflow of funds stands at 2.3 billion reais ($427 million) this month.

The Polls

Ipec, one of the most traditional Brazilian polling institutes, released its latest survey on Sept. 26, showing Lula garnering 52% of valid votes -- which excludes annulled ballots and those cast in blank -- enough for a victory in the first round.

Datafolha, another major pollster, will release fresh results Thursday after the market closes. Its previous surveys have also shown a good chance of an outright victory for Lula.

A massive victory for Lula’s Workers Party may also stoke fear of social unrest after President Jair Bolsonaro repeatedly declared a lack of confidence in the voting system, fueling concern he may challenge the results.

While the latest polls have undermined the local market, many remain skeptical with the methodology and the demography charts used to extrapolate the results from the surveys. Last week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. joined hedge funds including Legacy Capital in telling clients that the elections are likely to be tighter than polls are signaling. Odds of Lula being elected on Sunday currently stand at between 20% to 25%, according to political consultancy Eurasia Group.

Lula and Bolsonaro will face-off on Thursday at 9:30 p.m. ET during the last debate before the vote on the Globo TV channel, the most watched in Brazil.

“The market reaction to an outright Lula win will probably be negative,” said Fernando Siqueira, head of research at brokerage Guide Investimentos in Sao Paulo. “It would materially increase the risk of Bolsonaro and his supporters contesting the results.”

Bolsonaro, Lula Go on Attack in Debate on Eve of Brazil Vote


Simone Iglesias and Daniel Carvalho
Fri, September 30, 2022 

(Bloomberg) -- Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva traded insults in a televised debate that marked their final face off before Sunday’s election, with polls giving the opposition leader a wide lead.

The men went on the attack from the get-go, with Bolsonaro calling Lula a “liar,” “ex-convict” and “gang leader.” The comments drew a fiery response from the 76-year-old Lula, who lobbied his own accusations of corruption at Bolsonaro, saying the president “needs to look in the mirror and know what’s happening in his own government.”

The two leading candidates went back and forth for a few minutes, each earning the right to respond to offenses, before the debate continued. They soon resumed attacking each other while asking questions to other candidates, and were given additional rights to answer to allegations in several occasions.

“I feel bad for disrupting the debate when we could be discussing the future of this country,” Lula said later, after earning yet another right to respond to offenses.

In their final speeches, Lula listed his past economic achievements while Bolsonaro repeated campaign slogans and cited ideological themes, from abortion to drugs and religion.

The meeting, held in Rio de Janeiro and broadcast nationally by Globo TV, started late on Thursday and lasted about three and a half hours. It was the most widely watched of this election cycle, reaching millions of Brazilians just days before the first-round vote on Oct. 2. It was the theme of more than 200 million mentions on social media, according to Felipe Nunes, head of pollster Quaest.

The stakes appeared to be upped before it kicked off, with a survey released by Datafolha, Brazil’s most influential pollster, showing Lula inching closer to an outright win in the first round, for which he needs more than 50% of the vote.

The front-runner has 50% of valid votes in the first round, which excludes null and blank ballots, according to the poll published Thursday evening. Datafolha interviewed 6,800 people across Brazil between Sept. 27 and Sept. 29, and the poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

‘World Cup final’

Lula is focusing his efforts on drawing voters from other candidates at the final stretch of the campaign. He had compared the debate to a soccer World Cup final, according to a campaign adviser.

Read More: Lula Rallies Supporters Seeking Outright Victory in Brazil Vote

The former president canceled all public events ahead of the debate to rest his voice and, as he did prior to other election debates, received media training at a hotel in Rio, according to the adviser who asked not to be identified discussing strategy. The former president was diagnosed with throat cancer in 2011, which at times gives him a husky tone.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro had planned to step up his attacks on Lula, reminding voters of corruption scandals that happened during his eight-year government, in a bid to ensure the election goes to a second round on Oct. 30, said two people familiar with his plans ahead of the debate.

One or Two Rounds

An outright victory by Lula largely depends on his ability to peel off voters from long-shot presidential contenders.

But third-placed Ciro Gomes, a former governor, and fourth-placed, Simone Tebet, a senator, held their own and registered among the top performers in flash polls and in editorials in major dailys.

Their performance “complicates the late-game migration Lula sought,” brokerage XP Inc. wrote in a report early Friday.

Support for candidates other than Lula and Bolsonaro makes up about 12% of all voting intentions, pollster Quaest has found. Of those, nearly a quarter would be willing to switch their vote to ensure Lula wins in the first round, according to Nunes, the head of Quaest.

The former president would get 50.5% of valid votes, Quaest said on Wednesday after interviewing 2,000 Brazilians between Sept. 24 and 27. Bolsonaro, meanwhile, would get just over 36%. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Lula leads Bolsonaro by 14 points ahead of Brazil vote -Datafolha poll


Presidential candidate Lula closes his political campaign in Sao Paulo

Thu, September 29, 2022 

SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads President Jair Bolsonaro by 14 points, a poll released on Thursday showed, with the far-right incumbent having lost momentum against his leftist rival as the Oct. 2 presidential election looms.

The survey by Datafolha showed Lula with 48% of voter support versus 34% for Bolsonaro in the election's first round, compared with 47% and 33%, respectively, in the previous poll.

Excluding blank and null ballots, Lula was seen winning 50% of the votes, while Bolsonaro had 36%. If Lula reaches 50% plus one vote in the first round, he will win the election outright and avoid a second round.

In the event of a second-round run-off on Oct. 30, Lula would garner the support of 54% of voters versus 39% for Bolsonaro, a 15-point advantage, according to the poll, down from 16 points a week ago.

Bolsonaro's approval rating edged down to 31%, compared to 32% one week ago; still above the 22% he held in December, after which his popularity ticked up thanks to welfare programs and measures to tackle inflation.

His disapproval came in at 44%, according to the poll, the same rate as a week ago but down from the 53% seen in December.

Datafolha conducted 6,800 in-person interviews between Sept. 27-29. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points up or down.

(Reporting by Carolina Pulice and Alexandre Caverni; Editing by Leslie Adler and Sandra Maler)

Lula’s Final Sprint Skews 70% Winning Chance Upward, Eurasia Group Says

Felipe Saturnino and Vinícius Andrade
Wed, September 28, 2022 

(Bloomberg) -- Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s 70% odds of winning Brazil’s presidency this October are tilted to the upside, says political consultancy Eurasia Group.

Incumbent Jair Bolsonaro is failing at curbing Lula’s “final sprint,” which is putting him closer to clinching an outright victory on Oct. 2, according to Christopher Garman, managing director at the firm.

“Our 70% chance of Lula winning the elections is biased upward, the momentum seen last week with the ‘useful vote’ hasn’t changed,” Garman said in an interview at Bloomberg’s Sao Paulo offices, referring to people changing their votes to a candidate they see as having better odds. “This is a bad sign for Bolsonaro.”

Recent polls show Lula’s support increasing in the final days of the campaign, with some surveys putting the left-wing former president within inches of getting the more than 50% of valid votes -- which exclude ballots cast in blank or annulled -- he needs to avoid a runoff.

Brazil’s Latest Polls Ahead of October Presidential Vote (Table)

It’s an outcome that hasn’t happened in a presidential race since 1998, when then-President Fernando Henrique Cardoso was re-elected. Not even Lula, at the height of his popularity, managed to pull-off an outright win when he was chosen for a second term in the 2000s.

Garman puts odds of that happening between 20% and 25% -- double from earlier in the race, but still far from a base-case. Face-to-face surveys tend to over-represent left-wing candidates, he says, since it underestimates abstention rates that are proportionally higher among the poorest.

Thursday evening’s televised debate will be key for the outcome of Sunday’s vote.

“Lula must do well on the debate if he wants to win” in the first-round, Garman said. “He has to hammer the message that, back when he was president, he raised credibility and the economic conditions of Brazil -- and that, if he wins this time, he will do it again and better.”

Contested Election

A first-round Lula win or a commanding lead into the second round don’t reduce the odds of Bolsonaro questioning the election results, given his long-standing distrust of Brazil’s electronic voting machines, Garman said.

“Are the odds of Bolsonaro calling the vote into question lower if he loses by 10 percentage points, or if he loses in the first round? I don’t think so,” he said.

While the president’s supporters will likely hold demonstrations protesting a rigged election no matter the outcome of the vote, Garman doesn’t expect that to have any impact on the official recognition of the vote.

What to Know About Bolsonaro-Lula Showdown in Brazil: QuickTake

If he does win, Lula will likely try to replicate his 2003 strategy, picking a politician to lead his economic team. “A minister with a political profile and some good market names,” Garman says.

Garman also says that tax reform under Lula could be a positive surprise, unifying federal taxes under a value added tax, known as IVA, and potentially adding levies on the wealthy. The challenge, though will be delivering on growth.

“Lula’s government will have a difficult ‘trilemma.’ They want to increase spending, they don’t want to increase the tax burden, and they don’t want to create a debt sustainability problem,” Garman said. “If you don’t have growth, you can’t do all three. Basically, the future of Lula’s government will depend strictly on economic factors.”

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Lula: Can Brazil's 'most popular president' win again?

Katy Watson - BBC South America correspondent, in Manaus
Wed, September 28, 2022 

Lula, who led the country from January 2003 to December 2010, is running for a third term

In the second of two profiles of the leading candidates in the race to become Brazil's new president, Katy Watson asks if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the same person who took the world by storm 20 years ago.

It is no coincidence that Lula chose the Amazon as one of his key destinations on the campaign trail.

The 76-year-old's main rival in the presidential election on 2 October, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, has been accused of destroying the rainforest.

Lula knows that climate issues have soared to the top of the political agenda and in Manaus, the biggest city in the Amazon, he told reporters "the planet needs special attention from all of us".


"We need to look after our forest, our fauna, our water, but most of all, we need to look after our people because they're struggling, they're in need and they need to live with dignity," he said. "We can reclaim this country, it's possible to once again walk with our heads held high."

Lula chose the Museum of the Amazon to meet indigenous leaders and talk about the future of the forest. "Nobody wants to turn the Amazon into an untouchable world sanctuary," he told the audience.

"What we want is to benefit from our wealth, our biodiversity." By saying that, the former president shows that he is aware of his rival's message. President Bolsonaro is at great pains to say that the rest of the world needs to stop meddling in Brazil's affairs.

Lula remains very popular among left-wing supporters in Brazil

It is 20 years since Lula won the presidency for the first time. A former metal worker and union leader, he became a familiar face during the strikes of the 1970s, when workers called for higher wages, defying Brazil's military rulers.

He came to power promising change. Helped by high commodity prices, he spent the windfalls on areas such as higher education and welfare programmes that contributed to lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty.

Described by former US President Barack Obama as "the most popular politician on Earth", Lula left office after eight years in power with an approval rating of more than 80%.

Like him or hate him, he was a politician unlike any other. But in recent years, that legacy has been tainted with his party - and Lula himself - hit by corruption scandals.

In 2017, he was sentenced to nine years in prison. His convictions were quashed four years later, but his brush with the law means that he is no longer just seen as the "saviour" of Brazil. Instead, many millions of Brazilians see him as a corrupt politician unfit for office.

Given that split among voters, I asked him how he thought he could convince the electorate he is the right man to lead Brazil.

"Deaths [like that] of Dom Phillips and Bruno Pereira can't ever happen again," he said, skirting the question with a reference to the killing in June of a British journalist and an indigenous expert in the Amazon.

"Brazil needs to be transformed into a civilised country, it can't fall victim to inhumane people," he added. "I am convinced that we need to change Brazil - and changing Brazil means having a government that assumes responsibility for really caring for people."

Carol Araújo says she is unsure if a return to power for Lula would improve things

Not far from the centre of Manaus, where Lula spoke, 24-year-old mother-of-three Carol Araújo lives in small community of palafitas - houses that sit on stilts over a small river.

Rainy season is coming to an end and the earth below the houses here in the neighbourhood of São Jorge resembles a swamp more than a river.

Rubbish is everywhere: broken bottles, old boxes and shoes. In the sweltering heat of Manaus, the stench is overpowering.

Official figures suggest an estimated 63 million people now live in poverty in Brazil, and Carol, who was born in São Jorge, is one of them.

She knows nothing but hardship, but she does know who she is going to cast her ballot for. "I'm going to vote for Lula because under him, everything was easier," she says. "But I don't know if [by him] coming back things will improve."

It is a risk she is prepared to take. With food and energy prices rising, she cannot make ends meet.

"I try and find work when it comes my way but it's hard. I have to make it work to feed my children." She says that it comes down to knowing who will help her and those like her, because "during the elections, all the politicians do is make promises".

Another Lula supporter, Beth Ferreira, says she is "crazy" about Brazil's former leader

Lula more easily relies on the older generation, which can remember the good times, but he knows he will have to win over the younger generation voting for the first time.

"It's a sign of the incapacity of Brazil's elite to renew itself," says Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo.

"Lula has been running for president since Brazil became a democracy in the late 1980s, and in that sense he is very much a key personality of Brazil's transition from autocracy to democracy. But he struggles to point to the future, he's very much a throwback."

But while this is the same Lula, he will not be in charge of the same Brazil. Economic crises and more political polarisation set the country apart from what he inherited the first time.

For supporter Beth Ferreira, that does not matter. "I am crazy about Lula - Brazil needs him because we are in decline," she says. "When he started in 2003, Brazil was in the same situation, it was devastated. And we think he can do the same thing - our hope never dies.

Brazil’s decisive debate on eve of presidential election

Brazil Final Election Debate

Brazil's former president and now presidential candidate Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva of the Workers' Party, participate in a presidential debate in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022. Brazil will hold general elections on Oct. 2. 

MAURICIO SAVARESE and DAVID BILLER
Thu, September 29, 2022

SAO PAULO (AP) — Tens of millions of Brazilians were glued to their TVs late Thursday for the final presidential debate before Sunday's elections.

Far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro needed a strong performance to ensure a runoff against leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the front-runner in the polls. Five other candidates also participated.

Hours before the debate on the Globo network, a poll by Datafolha indicated a first-round victory was within reach for da Silva, which would require him to get more votes than all other candidates combined.

For that reason, Mauro Paulino, the former head of Datafolha, said Thursday’s debate was “the most important since Brazil’s redemocratization” in 1985.

“A small group of people will decide whether this election has two rounds or one,” Paulino told GloboNews. “The performances of those candidates in front of so many viewers will matter a lot.”

Here are some of the key moments from the debate: ___

Da Silva, whose performance in the first debate weeks ago was called tepid by analysts, tried to show more energy in his answers to Bolsonaro.

But the debate quickly devolved into a fierce back-and-forth between the two, with each lobbing personal insults and the moderator granting them repeated opportunities to respond.

“Him talking about gangs, he should look in the mirror,” da Silva said.

“Liar. Ex-convict. Traitor to the nation,” Bolsonaro fired back. “Be ashamed of yourself, Lula.”

“It is insane that a president comes here and says what he says," da Silva said. "That is why people will send you home on Oct. 2.”

The moderator, William Bonner, eventually asked for civility: “Out of respect for the public, please maintain the level of calm for a democratic environment that we are trying to have for this debate." ___

Simone Tebet, a senator who is close to agribusiness leaders and considered a moderate in the race, attacked Bolsonaro over his environmental record in a segment related to climate change.

“Your administration is the one that made biomes, forests and my Pantanal wetlands burn. Your administration cared for miners and loggers, and protected them," she said. "You, in this regard, were the worst president in Brazil’s history.”

Bolsonaro defended his record, noting he deployed the army to the Amazon to fight fires.

She commented that “he believes his own lies” and that low rainfall was hurting agricultural output.

“So the lack of rain is my responsibility? Congratulations,” he replied, with a grin. He noted that he had traveled to Russia to negotiate supply of fertilizers.

"People love me, and the countryside will vote for me again," he added. ___

Brazilian social media was set afire by exchanges involving Father Kelmon Luís da Silva Souza, a candidate whose claim to be a Catholic orthodox priest has been contested. His appearance began by lobbing a softball question to Bolsonaro. That display, plus his past debate performance, prompted candidates to accuse him of working on behalf of Bolsonaro's candidacy.

Da Silva referred to him as a “shell candidate” and demanded to know at which church he supposedly ministers. The two exchanged heated words that prompted Globo to cut away and silence their mics for an extended time while Bonner, the moderator, pleaded for silence.

But candidate Soraya Thronicke's jabs at Kelmon — in three separate face-offs — were the greatest driver of attention and memes. She first feigned inability to even remember his name, then called him “Candidate Father” and said he looked like the costumed priests who perform mock weddings at traditional June parties.

Even Bonner showed open frustration with Kelmon. He repeatedly admonished the candidate for ignoring debate rules and speaking out of turn.

 

Carlos Bolsonaro, son of Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro who is running for re-election, talks to his father, next to the Presidential candidate Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labour Party, during their arrival at the presidential debate in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022. Brazil will hold general elections on Oct. 2. 

 

Brazil's former president and now presidential candidate Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva of the Workers' Party, and Presidential candidate Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, arrive to attend a presidential debate in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022. Brazil will hold general elections on Oct. 2. 

 

Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro, who is running for re-election on the Liberal Party ticket smiles during his arrival to attend a presidential debate in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022. Brazil will hold general elections on Oct. 2.

 

Presidential candidate Padre Kelmon of the Brazilian Labour Party, attends a presidential debate in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022. Brazil will hold general elections on Oct. 2

 

Presidential candidate Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, arrives to attend a presidential debate in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022. Brazil will hold general elections on Oct. 2.

 AP Photo/Bruna Prado

Bolsonaro Brings Trump’s ‘Stop the Steal’ Tactics to the Brazilian Election

Yasmeen Serhan
Fri, September 30, 2022 

President Jair Bolsonaro Holds Campaign Event

Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's President, during a campaign event in Santos, São Paulo state, Brazil, on Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022. Credit - Victor Moriyama—Bloomberg/Getty

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has spent much of the past four years imitating one man: Donald Trump. Bolsonaro did so during his 2018 presidential campaign, when his iconoclastic political style and crude statements about women, Indigenous groups, and the media earned him the moniker “Trump of the Tropics.” He did so again during the COVID-19 pandemic, when he railed against lockdowns and spread misinformation about the safety and efficacy of lifesaving vaccines. And he did so in the aftermath of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, when Bolsonaro became one of the few international leaders to back Trump’s baseless claims of voter fraud, and was one of the last to finally acknowledge Trump’s defeat.

The fear now facing many Brazilians is that Bolsonaro could pull off his biggest Trump tribute act to date when their country goes to the polls for the first round of its general elections on Sunday. The far-right Brazilian leader has spent much of the past year claiming, without evidence, that his country’s electronic voting system is susceptible to fraud. (Brazil’s electronic voting system, which was introduced more than two decades ago explicitly to combat fraud, has a strong track record for reliability.) Bolsonaro has repeatedly refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose reelection, presenting his only options as victory, arrest, or death. With polls showing him trailing his left-wing rival, the former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazilian democracy seems poised to be put on a collision course with Bolsonaro and his most loyal supporters, some of whom have threatened violence against their opponents.

Trump’s “Stop the Steal” playbook might seem like an odd one for the Brazilian President to follow. The former U.S. President didn’t, after all, stop the transition of power to Joe Biden. His supporters’ storming of the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 also earned Trump the distinct dishonor of being the first President to ever be impeached twice. The seemingly obvious question, then, is what Bolsonaro stands to gain from emulating a strategy that ultimately failed?

The answer is a lot. Yes, Trump did not retain the presidency. But by virtually every other metric, he has been a success. He remains the de facto leader of the Republican Party and is widely seen as the favorite to win his party’s nomination for the 2024 presidential election. Unlike most former presidents, who often tend to retire into relative post-political obscurity, Trump continues to be relevant. While this is partly driven by the range of criminal and civil investigations he faces, it is also influenced by the intrigue over whether he’ll indeed stand as a candidate in 2024. “I’ve already made that decision,” Trump told New York magazine in July, without specifying further. A good entertainer knows how to keep his audience engaged.

If Bolsonaro has learned anything from Trump, it’s that the politics of grievance can have its advantages. It can be weaponized to galvanize your base, lend support to your allies, and, perhaps most crucially for Boslonaro, shield yourself from prosecution by declaring any such efforts to be a politically-motivated witch hunt. For Bolsonaro, who previously faced potential criminal charges over his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, this could factor into his decision making. “It doesn’t guarantee immunity, but it provides you with an extra layer of protection,” says Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, a university and think tank in São Paulo. “Bolsonaro’s interpretation is that there is an actual incentive not to concede and that in many ways he’d be better off if he contested the result.”

Read More: What To Know About Brazil’s Crucial Election

But Brazilian democracy would stand worse off for it. The country’s faith in democracy had already taken a beating under Bolsonaro, with 44% believing that Brazil is becoming less democratic, according to a recent study conducted by YouGov. Analysts fear that Bolsonaro’s unfounded claims about voting machines stands to only further undermine Brazilians’ trust in the democratic process and could even lead to widespread unrest or, worse yet, an attempted coup. Claims of electoral fraud and content discrediting the electoral process have already run rampant on Brazilian social media.

While U.S. institutions ultimately withstood Trump’s efforts to subvert the election, its consequences are still being felt today. Trump’s “Stop the Steal” campaign continues to have widespread traction—so much so that candidates endorsing his election fraud claims are expected to appear in ballots in nearly every state in the U.S. midterms this November. Brazilian democracy could prove to be even less robust. “Faith in institutions was already much lower in Brazil than in the United States,” says Christopher Sabatini, a senior researcher fellow for Latin America at Chatham House and founder of Americas Quarterly. Even if an attempted coup doesn’t materialize, the country could still be left with millions of hardcore Bolsonaro supporters who no longer have faith in the democratic process. In this way, Sabatini adds, “The damage has already been done.”

What Bolsonaro ultimately does is anyone’s guess. During the final weeks of the campaign, the Brazilian leader has offered contradictory statements. On a podcast earlier this month, he appeared to acknowledge the prospect of electoral defeat, saying that he would quit politics if that ever came to pass. Days later, while visiting London for Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral, he told a Brazilian broadcaster that if he wins less than 60% of the vote in the first round of voting, “something abnormal has happened.” (If neither candidate exceeds 50% of the vote in the first round, there will be a runoff at the end of October to determine the winner.)

“He is a famously intemperate and capricious person and so we won’t know until the moment,” says Sabatini. “He probably won’t even know until the moment.” What is certain, however, is that win or lose, Bolsonaro can count on Trump’s support.

Brazil's Bolsonaro has his same old election fraud excuse ready if he loses



Ananya Bhattacharya
Thu, September 29, 2022 

Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro is trailing at the polls—and he’s getting ready to blame the country’s voting system for it.

Bolsonaro and his party have claimed, without evidence, that government employees could alter ballots. They insist the electronic voting machines, used for 25 years, are prone to fraud, but provided no proof of this when the opportunity to do so presented itself last year.

The enflamed rhetoric of the campaign, and Bolsonaro’s attempts to undermine the voting system, has raised fears of political violence should the election loser refuse to accept defeat.

2018 “WhatsApp election” deja vu

In the last presidential election, the rampant spread of fake news played a big hand in Bolsonaro’s win. Meta-owned messaging app WhatsApp—which was used by 120 million of the 210 million Brazilians then—was flooded with fake articles and videos favoring the now-president.

Crying foul about electronic voting machines was a big part of the ploy: Up to 48% of the rightwing items found in an analysis of 11,957 viral messages from 2018's election period mentioned a fictional plot to fraudulently manipulate the electronic ballot system.

2022 election schedule

A few days ahead of the election, polls give left-wing rival Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva a 14-point lead over Bolsonaro, and might even amass enough votes to win a 50 percent plus one majority.

Oct. 2: Brazilians will vote in the first round to elect a president, 27 of 81 senators, all 513 members of the Chamber of Deputies and all 27 governors and state legislatures.

Oct. 30: second round of voting will take place if no presidential candidate bags 50% of the votes
Person of interest: Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva

Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva is coming back to finish what he started.

The 76-year-old left-wing leader was president between January 2003 and December 2010. He enjoyed great popularity, but his legacy was ultimately marred by corruption convictions in 2017, which Lula appealed. In 2018, Brazil’s top electoral court forced him to drop off the presidential race, in which he was a frontrunner. In March 2021, the Brazilian Supreme Court voided his conviction.

During his stint as president, his welfare policies focused on fighting hunger and redistributing wealth were credited with lifting 20 million Brazilians out of poverty. With majority of Brazilians still struggling with food insecurity and rising inflation, Lula’s supporters hope he can work his magic again.

EU lawmakers on Brazil's Bolsonaro: Respect vote or face sanctions


Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro attends a campaign rally in Sao Paulo state

Wed, September 28, 2022 

BRASILIA (Reuters) -Several dozen members of the European parliament urged European Union leaders on Wednesday to monitor Brazil's Sunday election for attempts by far-right President Jair Bolsonaro to subvert democracy, arguing trade sanctions should apply if he does.

Voters in Brazil head to the polls for a first-round presidential vote on Oct. 2, with leftist front-runner and former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, expanding his lead over Bolsonaro in the latest polls even as fears of post-election turmoil persist.

In an open letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Vice President Josep Borrell, the Greens–European Free Alliance and some Social Democrat parliamentarians, 50 altogether, accused Bolsonaro of systematically attacking Brazil's electoral system.

"We urge you to take additional steps to make it unequivocally clear to President Bolsonaro and his government that Brazil's constitution must be respected and attempts to subvert the rules of democracy are unacceptable," the lawmakers wrote.

"The EU should state that it will use different levers, including trade, to defend Brazil's democracy and human rights," they added.

Later on Wednesday, the United States Senate passed a resolution urging Brazil's government to ensure a "free, fair, credible, transparent, and peaceful" election.

The resolution also calls on U.S. authorities to reconsider its relationship with any government that comes to power in Brazil through undemocratic means, including a military coup.

Bolsonaro is widely expected to contest the result if he loses. He has claimed without evidence that electoral authorities will rig the vote against him and that electronic voting cannot be trusted.

A recent IPEC poll shows Lula increased his lead to 17 points with 48% support versus 31% for Bolsonaro. The poll showed Lula could win outright in the first round, with 52% of voter intentions, above the 50% threshold needed to avoid a second-round.

(Reporting by Anthony Boadle; Additional reporting by Peter Siqueira; Editing by Paul Simao and Christopher Cushing)

Brazil's Bolsonaro enlists Neymar on campaign stop


Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is running for a second term, speaks during a campaign rally in Santos, Brazil, Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2022. Brazil's general elections are scheduled for Oct. 2. 

(AP Photo/Andre Penner)


MAURICIO SAVARESE
Wed, September 28, 2022 

SAO PAULO (AP) — Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro enlisted the help of soccer star Neymar on a campaign stop Wednesday, just four days before the country's general elections.

Bolsonaro visited a non-profit youth institute set up by Neymar in the city of Praia Grande and took a call from the Paris Saint-Germain player, who thanked the far-right leader and said he was proud of him.

Bolsonaro is largely trailing leftist former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote. The Brazilian president arrived at the Neymar Jr. Institute, outside Sao Paulo, after riding a motorcycle alongside supporters.

“President Bolsonaro,” Neymar said in a video posted by Brazil's Communications Minister, Fabio Faria. “I thank you for your illustrious visit. I wish I was there, unfortunately I am far away. But I will be with you in the next one. I am very happy because you are there.”


Bolsonaro posted another video on Twitter showing Neymar's call during his visit, as hundreds of children circled around the president and took pictures with him.

“I thank you for your support, as always,” the footballer tells the far-right leader. “You know that I am very proud of you."

Neymar played Tuesday in Brazil's 5-1 win against Tunisia in a pre-World Cup friendly in Paris. He scored one of the goals from the penalty spot.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the striker had suggested on his social media channels he was withdrawing his support for Bolsonaro, who is unvaccinated and proudly flouted health protocols as the disease spread. More than 680,000 people died due to the virus in Brazil.

Bolsonaro said that Neymar's institute “is a reference for all of Brazil."

“Our Neymar is a source of pride for all of us,” Brazil's president said.

Neymar da Silva Santos, the player's father and agent, also celebrated Bolsonaro's visit on his social media channels.

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More AP soccer: https://apnews.com/hub/soccer and https://twitter.com/AP_Sports

In sacred Brazil dunes, critics see evangelical encroachment

Brazil Sand Dune Dispute Members of the Indigenous community join Afro Brazilian community members in a protest march, in Salvador, Brazil, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022. Protesters called on authorities to take action against projects that would have environmental impact on the dunes, including one to accommodate evangelical pilgrims congregating at the Abaete dune system, an area members of the Afro Brazilian faiths consider sacred. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)More

DAVID BILLER
Wed, September 28, 2022 at 10:00 PM·7 min read

SALVADOR, Brazil (AP) — The vast blanket of white sand overlooking Salvador is a place to escape rumbling traffic, pinging phones and crying children. A space to find solitude and, increasingly, God.

Evangelicals have been converging on the massive Abaete dune system for some 25 years but especially lately, with thousands now coming each week to sing, pray and enter trancelike states. Some scrawl prayers on scraps of paper to be burned.

“I never tire of coming up here and glorifying,” said Deja Soares, 47, adding that she has seen the paralyzed walk and the blind see. “The things God does here are incredible.”

This year the dunes have become a flashpoint after City Hall began building a plaza and welcome center at one spot along their base, with a staircase up the sand soon to follow. A future phase would entail a platform atop the plateau. Defenders of the project say it’s necessary to protect the fragile dunes from the increasingly heavy foot traffic.


But it has come under fire from Afro Brazilian religious groups, who have been performing their own rituals in the dunes for generations, and protest what they see as elected officials abusing their power to coopt and Christianize yet another public space. They say their objections reflect evangelicals’ rising influence in the country’s halls of power and politics straining interreligious relations ahead of Oct. 2 general elections.

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This is the second installment in The Associated Press' two-part package about the intersection of politics and religion in Brazil.

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While Catholicism is still the largest religion in Brazil, in recent years it has slipped below 50% of the population to lose its status as a majority faith, and is projected to be overtaken by evangelical churches in a decade.

This year there are nearly 500 evangelical pastors running for state and federal legislatures, more than triple the number in 2014, according to data from political analyst Bruno Carazza. Sóstenes Cavalcante, leader of Congress' evangelical caucus, told AP he believes they can win a third of the Lower House’s seats, matching their share of the population.

Increased political power has, at times, altered the dynamics of public space nationwide, including in Bahia state, whose capital is Salvador.

One mayor in Bahia recently symbolically bestowed the key to the city on God and subjugated all other spiritual entities to Christ. Another in Salvador's metro region renamed a market “Jeová Jireh,” meaning “The Lord Will Provide,” and vendors selling specialized products to members of Afro Brazilian faiths were allegedly barred from obtaining stalls. Bahia’s state legislature was adorned with a 30-foot panel featuring a Bible and the ark of the covenant.

“There is a project to dispute territory and power that is already being executed,” said Lívia Sant’Anna Vaz, a state prosecutor focusing on human rights discrimination.

It was in that context that the dunes project was greenlit by an evangelical pastor who served as infrastructure secretary. Workers are toiling day and night to complete it this month.

On Sept. 18 roughly 200 evangelicals made a four-hour pilgrimage to the site, some barefoot as they traversed Salvador’s streets to arrive at the steep rise of sand they call the “Holy Mountain.”

Clad in flowy white garments, they faced the city and raised their hands as Bishop Wedson Tavares prayed for God to influence the election. With flags of Brazil and Israel in his shaking fists, he blessed elected officials from city councilors on up to President Jair Bolsonaro — a fervent supporter of evangelical interests — and pleaded for his reelection.

“Take the direction, in Jesus’ name, of this country, so your people can be happy!” the bishop said, kneeling with his eyes squeezed shut. “Because your word says that when the just govern, the people rejoice!”

Spectacles like that have Jaciara Ribeiro, a priestess of the Afro Brazilian Candomble faith, which has historically faced repression in Salvador, convinced that the public works project is a ploy for evangelicals' electoral support.

“It’s a political concession,” she said. “They are building as a function of partisan politics. Doing that ‘Holy Mountain’ is for the evangelical vote. That’s it.”

Previously she would climb that dune to retrieve barbatimão leaves for rituals honoring the deity Oxalá, but lately she has begun avoiding it. Members of her nearby temple have been insulted when walking past or had Bibles brandished at them, she said.

Roque Soares, director of an environmental nonprofit that helped develop the project, denied that politics are at play and said the aim is to keep the crowds from eroding the dunes and provide them with bathrooms.

The dunes are personal for Soares, who is also an evangelical pastor and a police detective. Decades ago he used to go there to smoke marijuana, sleep with women and hunt birds. After he converted, he said, it was there the Lord cured four hernias that doctors said would require surgery.

“I started coming to this place with another perspective, to seek out God’s presence,” said Soares, 53. “I found many different people from different denominations, different parts of our city and the interior of our state.”

The area affected by the project is only a tiny fraction of the vast dune system. Soares noted it didn't face opposition until an evangelical pastor and city councilman presented a bill to officially christen the location “Holy Mountain The Lord Will Provide.”

While backlash forced the withdrawal of that proposal, evangelicals still call the area “Holy Mountain” — as does the mayor. At a packed meeting inside Salvador’s convention center, he told hundreds of cheering Christians that he was building “Holy Mountain” so they can manifest their faith. Then a bishop from one of Brazil's largest evangelical churches called four legislative candidates onto the stage and asked the crowd to vote for them.

Amid the dispute, several “Holy Mountain” signs put up by Roque's nonprofit have been damaged, and some evangelicals accuse members of Afro Brazilian faiths of being responsible.

In mid-September, Ribeiro, who is known as Mother Jaciara of Oxum, received word that the federal public defenders’ office had sued to suspend the project. She took it as a sign the deity Oxum had heard their pleas, and she wanted to go there to celebrate. But she worried that members of her temple would be afraid to join, intimidated by the evangelical presence.

“They have an army of God. I’d like to have an army of Oxum,” she said with a wink.

Forces mustered soon enough, and practitioners of Afro Brazilian faiths gathered days later to protest the project and other measures seen as environmental aggressions against the dunes.

Dressed in white, they marched to Abaete Lagoon, the traditional site in the dunes for most for their rituals, and lined up along the water in a symbolic hug for the area.

From a sound truck, a Candomble priestess urged people to political action. Many wore stickers supporting left-wing legislative candidates, at least two of whom were present, and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is running against Bolsonaro.

Down the lagoon's shore, an evangelical pastor called three church members into the water to be baptized, plunging their heads beneath the surface and then hugging them tightly.

The pastor, Edy Santos, said afterward that he wasn’t bothered by the continuous drumming from the protest and that he refuses to talk politics with his flock, even when they ask.

“Our country is totally divided. It’s a division of thoughts,” said Santos, 32. “And the church came to unite.”

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Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

Jewish sect in Mexico escape from detention after police raid




People escape Mexican detention center, after raid on Jewish sect, in Huixtla

Thu, September 29, 2022 
By Jose Torres

HUIXTLA, Mexico (Reuters) - A group of about 20 members of a fundamentalist Jewish sect escaped from a Mexican detention center in the southern state of Chiapas on Wednesday night, according to a Reuters reporter who filmed the incident.

The group were being held by Mexico's National System for Integral Family Development, or DIF, following a raid by Mexican police on Friday that targeted Lev Tahor - a strict Jewish sect that practices arranged marriages and full-body coverings for girls as young as three.

The sect is estimated to consist of about 200 to 300 people and rejects the state of Israel.

Neither the DIF nor the office of Mexico's Attorney General's office responded to requests to comment on the case.

On Tuesday, Israel's foreign ministry issued a statement about the raid, saying it "took place after Mexican police gathered incriminating evidence against several members of the cult on suspicion of drug trafficking, rape and more."

Mexican police did not respond to requests for comment.

The Israeli statement said two Lev Tahor members were arrested on human trafficking and severe sexual offences.

It added that many of the members were Israeli citizens and that one former member had taken part in the raid in a bid to be reunited with his 3-year-old son who had remained in the sect. The two were reunited and have returned to Israel, the statement said.

Other members of the sect were transferred to the DIF facility.

The Reuters video showed the group overpowering guards and forcing their way out through a door of the compound where they were being held. Those escaping included children and women holding babies.

"They wouldn't let us leave", said David Rosales, a member of the sect, after the escape. "This is a violation of freedom and religious rights."

Videos shared overnight by Mexican media had shown children climbing on the bars of the facility, crying and calling for their families.

Founded in the 1980s by Israeli Shlomo Helbrans, the Lev Tahor practice an austere form of Judaism. Winning admiration from some Jews for its devoutness, the group is condemned by others as a cult-like sect.

Lev Tahor ("Pure Heart" in Hebrew) has faced multiple allegations of kidnapping, child marriage and physical abuse since it was founded in the 1980s.

Earlier this year, two Lev Tahor leaders were sentenced in the United States to 12 years in prison for kidnapping and sex trafficking crimes.

The group has moved countries frequently, including from the United States, Israel, Canada, Guatemala, Mexico and parts of Europe.

(Reporting by Jose Torres, Henriette Chacar, Sarah Morland and Valentine Hilaire, Editing by Diane Craft and Rosalba O'Brien)

Hungarians protest change in abortion rules





Wed, September 28, 2022 

BUDAPEST (Reuters) - More than 1,000 Hungarians protested on Wednesday against a change in abortion rules that took effect on Sept. 15, which women's rights groups say would "humiliate" and torment women while having no effect on the number of abortions.

Under the rules amended by Conservative Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government, pregnant women must submit evidence from their healthcare provider of a definitive sign of life, widely interpreted as the heartbeat of a foetus, before requesting the procedure.

The government gave no reason for the change and denied it would amount to a tightening of rules. Some political analysts have said it could be aimed at winning votes for Orban's Fidesz party from the far-right Our Homeland party, which won seats in parliament for the first time in April, and had campaigned for these changes to abortion rules.

"Although the government pretends to be 'pro-life', these measures do not protect a single life: the real purpose of the sneaking restriction is the humiliation of women and to exercise control over women's lives," organisers said in a statement.

They called on Orban's government to provide safe living conditions for women expecting children and to make contraception accessible to everyone.

Protesters, some of whom carried placards saying "My body, my life, my decision" or "Free of charge contraception for everyone," gathered outside Hungary's parliament and planned to march to the Interior Ministry, which drew up the reforms.

"I think this is a very bad requirement as going for an abortion in itself is... a hugely traumatising experience," said Laura Fekete, 22, a student, referring to the change which means women must effectively have heard the foetus' heartbeat.

"I believe it is up to each and every individual to decide if they want to have a child or not... and the government should not meddle in this."

Current rules allow Hungarian women to request an abortion in cases of rape, risks to the mother's health from the pregnancy, a severe disability of the unborn child or in case of a serious personal crisis.

The number of abortions fell to about 22,000 in Hungary last year from over 90,000 in 1990 based on official statistics.

Nearby Poland, among Europe's most devoutly Catholic countries, has a near-total ban on abortion.

(Reporting by Krisztina Than; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)