LET'S GET IT DONE

Nord Stream repair may take at least six months, says lawmaker

Four Nord Stream gas pipeline leaks have been uncovered, with the most recent one being pinpointed by Sweden’s coast guard

Head of the State Duma Energy Committee Pavel Zavalny

© Mikhail Tereshchenko/TASS

YUZHNO-SAHALINSK, September 29. /TASS/. Repairing the ruptures that occurred on the lines of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines may take more than six months, Pavel Zavalny, who heads the State Duma’s (lower house) Committee on Energy, believes.

In his opinion, there are two ways to fix the damage: making a caisson (a watertight chamber used in underwater construction work or as a foundation - TASS), or hoisting the gas pipelines to the surface.

"One way is to manufacture a caisson that will be brought to the pipe. Work will be carried out in the caisson to either replace the pipe or fix it. The depths allow this. Of course, a complex engineering underwater structure would have to be created. That being said, the timeframe - the design, manufacturing and the works - all this would take not just months but even longer. The second option is lifting [the pipes]," he told reporters on the sidelines of the Sakhalin Oil and Gas forum on Thursday.

According to him, raising the gas pipeline to the surface would require cranes with a lifting capacity of 3,000 tons.

"As part of the design of these gas pipelines, the risks of its work being disrupted were factored in, and, accordingly, the possibility of repairs was taken into account. Therefore, the pipe was laid in such a way that would make it possible to hoist it up. This will also take time, technical equipment, cranes, ships, and so on. But, in my opinion, technically it is possible. It may take a long time, it's not a month or two, it's six months or a year, at least," Zavalny explained.

He noted that the decisive factor in choosing options is the availability of ship equipment to carry out repairs.

"Probably, these pipe-laying vessels are under sanctions, so they simply won't be allowed to be used to repair the gas pipeline," the legislator admitted.

Nord Stream pipeline ruptures

Four Nord Stream gas pipeline leaks have been uncovered, with the most recent one being pinpointed by Sweden’s coast guard.

Earlier, the Nord Stream AG company reported that three threads of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 offshore gas pipelines had suffered unprecedented damage on Monday. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow was "deeply concerned about the news" and did not rule out that the pipelines’ operation could have been disrupted by an act of sabotage. Swedish seismologists later reported that two explosions had been recorded along the Nord Stream pipelines on Monday.

The UN Security Council will discuss the situation with the pipelines at a meeting on September 30 convened at Russia’s request. The Danish Energy Agency reported that a large amount of gas had spilled into the sea. Aircraft and ships are barred from approaching the site any closer than five nautical miles.

Damaged Nord Stream threads contained about 800 mln cubic meters of gas — Gazprom

Gazpropm has started to search for solutions to restore the efficiency of the Nord Stream system but it’s impossible to say how much time it will take at the moment

UNITED NATIONS, October 1. /TASS/. Three threads of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines contained about 800 mln cubic meters of gas at the time when an incident took place, Spokesman for Russia’s Gazprom gas giant Sergey Kupriyanov told a UN Security Council meeting.

"According to current estimates, three threads of the gas pipelines contained about 800 million cubic meters of gas at the time of the incident. For reference, it is the amount of gas that Denmark uses in three months. Data about a sharp drop in pressure and gas leaks makes it possible to say with confidence that the integrity of the pipelines was violated by physical damage," he pointed out, adding that although no gas was being transported via the gas pipelines at the time of the incident, both gas pipelines had been ready for operation.

Gazpropm has started to search for solutions to restore the efficiency of the Nord Stream system but it’s impossible to say how much time it will take at the moment. "One thing that can be said for sure is that it is a very difficult technical task," Kupriyanov noted.

Nord Stream 1 operator says repair of pipeline possible

DPA - Wednesday

The operator of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline says repairing the leak is an option once the damage has been assessed.


An aerial photo provided by the Danish Defense Command shows the Nord Stream 2 gas leak near Bornholm. Following the damage to the Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea, authorities in Germany and Denmark continue to search for the cause. Danish Defence Command/dpa© DPA

A spokesman for Nord Stream AG told dpa that it wants to inspect the damage as quickly as possible once the authorities have lifted the closure zones that have been imposed.

The spokesperson declined to give information on possible costs and who would bear them.

Nord Stream 2 AG spokesman Ulrich Lissek said that "no one can seriously say at the moment what the situation is down there," but that "the structural integrity of the pipeline must be massively damaged."

For Nord Stream 2 AG, exploration or repair on the pipeline are likely to be difficult because the company has been under US sanctions since the beginning of the year.

The German government said Wednesday that "there can be no natural cause for this incident." Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit declined to describe it as an attack, however.



A general view of the pipe systems and shut-off devices at the gas receiving station of the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline and the transfer station of the Eugal gas pipeline (foreground -European Gas Link). The European Union considers sabotage to be the likely cause of the leaks from the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines and has threatened to take countermeasures. Stefan Sauer/dpa© DPA


An aerial photo provided by the Danish Defense Command shows the Nord Stream 2 gas leak near Bornholm. Following the damage to the Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea, authorities in Germany and Denmark continue to search for the cause. Danish Defence Command/dpa© DPA


Unused pipes for the Nord Stream 2 Baltic gas pipeline are stored on the site of the Port of Mukran. After a pressure drop was detected in a short time for the two Baltic Sea pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2, three leaks have now been identified. Stefan Sauer/dpa© DPA

Nord Stream says it seeks permits to start 

damage assessment of pipeline

Thu, September 29, 2022 

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Nord Stream AG, the operator of the Russia-led Nord Stream 1 offshore gas pipeline said on Thursday it intended to start assessing the damage to the pipeline as soon as it receives necessary official permits.

It said access to the area of incidents may be allowed only after the pressure in the gas pipeline has stabilised and the gas leakage has stopped.

The operator added that until the completion of the damage assessment, it is not possible to predict the timeframe for restoration of the gas transmission infrastructure.

(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Chris Reese)

Nord Stream 1 pipeline may use repair equipment pool

Thu, September 29, 2022

MOSCOW, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Russia's Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline may make use of the Pipeline Repair and Subsea Intervention (PRSI) Pool that provides repair equipment to member companies, it said in a statement to Reuters.

The Europe Union was investigating leaks in the Gazprom-led Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea this week and said it suspected sabotage.

The PRSI Pool provides pipeline repair equipment to its members as part of a cooperative of operating companies and includes Norway's Equinor and Nord Stream 1 operator Nord Stream AG, among others.

"Nord Stream AG is a member of the PRSI Pool and may engage PRSI at a later stage, when the repair strategy and solution have been developed," Nord Stream AG said in an emailed statement.

The Gazprom-led Nord Stream 1, which has an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic metres, was halted on Aug 31 for what Gazprom said would be three days of repair work. Gazprom failed to restart flows, however, saying it was unable to carry out the required work due to Western sanctions imposed on Moscow.

The operator of Nord Stream 2, which was built alongside Nord Stream 1 but has not been commissioned, did not immediately reply to a Reuters request for comment.

Sweden's coast guard discovered a fourth gas leak on the damaged Nord Stream pipelines this week, a spokesperson told the Svenska Dagbladet newspaper.

 (Reporting by Reuters; editing by Jason Neely)

Nord Stream Repair No Easy Matter

Copyright © 2022 Energy Intelligence Group
Published:
Wed, Sep 28, 2022
Author
Noah Brenner, London
Editor
David Pike



Damage from alleged explosions at the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea could be difficult to repair and will be complicated by growing Western sanctions against working with Russia, according to a well-placed industry source.

Danish and Swedish investigators continue their work at two leaks on the Nord Stream pipeline and another leak on Nord Stream 2, believed to have been caused by sabotage.

The industry source, who is close to the projects, stressed the complication of repairing such damage to undersea pipelines, and predicted that Nord Stream is likely to remain out of action throughout this winter and potentially longer.

The two pipes were each designed to bring 55 billion cubic meters per year of natural gas from Russia to Germany, although neither was flowing at the time of this week's incident — Moscow had suspended flows through Nord Stream and the Ukraine crisis prevented the start of Nord Stream 2.

Until additional assessments of the damage are made public, it is impossible to know how hard it might be to repair either of the lines, a process that Russian officials have said must include Gazprom as the outright or majority owner of the two pipes.

"I think it's too early to say that it is absolutely beyond repair," the source said. "I think that we have to expect the pipe to be, in any case, out of action through the winter."

Any number of factors could play into the length of time it would take to repair the damage and the cost required to bring the line back into service. "The greater the length of pipe you have to bring up and the more work you have to do, the more time it would take," the source said.

The job would be further complicated by the incursion of seawater into the line.

“Seawater definitely is a problem" as it can corrode and damage portions of the pipeline beyond the initial holes.

Even with a speedy assessment of the damage and response, there is no certainty that Nord Stream would be back online even by the winter of 2023/24: "I wouldn’t put my money on it," the industry source said.

Hampered by Sanctions

The conflict in Ukraine, which has seen energy supplies increasingly used as a weapon by Russia and the West, poses an obvious obstacle to any cooperative attempt to repair the damage.

Western sanctions add another layer of complication, the source said.

Sanctions put in place before Russia's invasion of Ukraine made construction of the Nord Stream 2 line difficult, as the US sought to hamper Gazprom's ability to finish the project by targeting special pipelaying vessels.

The recent proliferation of measures limiting the provision of services and technologies to Russia will make any repair even harder.

"The list [of service firms able to work on the project] would be shorter … than in normal times," the source said.

All these challenges assume that Gazprom — which owns 51% of Nord Stream and 100% of Nord Stream 2 — would try to move ahead with repairs.

But Germany has already cut Russian gas imports from 40% of its total supplies to just 9% of total consumption — albeit with a push from Gazprom itself, which has systematically stepped down flows over the past six months, citing a series of technical problems.

Given plans by the German government to phase out Russian gas altogether, there may be limited commercial incentive to make the potentially costly repairs needed to return the lines to service.

No Accident

While speculation has swirled around who might have been responsible for the damage to the Nord Stream lines, there seems to be little doubt that they were purposefully sabotaged.

"The lines are very well built. They're solid. They're state-of-the-art," said the industry source. "I would not expect … a simple industrial incident because of lack of safety precautions or whatever."

The pipeline routes were surveyed to ensure there was no unexploded ammunition from past conflicts, and they were leveled and prepared to prevent steep slopes. "It very much looks like a deliberate act of sabotage," the source said.

Doubts Mount Over Viability of Nord Stream

Repair: Energy Update

Bloomberg News, Bloomberg News 

Sep 29, 2022

(Bloomberg) -- Germany set out a plan to limit gas prices for homes and business that will need €200 billion ($195 billion) of borrowing, a move that risks keeping consumption high as shortages loom this winter.

Households aren’t yet listening to calls to use less gas with the country’s network regulator warning earlier that consumption was higher than usual over the past week as temperatures dropped. Savings of at least 20% are needed to avert a shortage of the fuel this winter. 

Gas is still leaking from the damaged Nord Stream pipelines as nations step up security at critical energy infrastructure to prevent further potential sabotage. The fuel has been bubbling up from the pipelines since earlier this week, with Denmark estimating that the links would empty by Sunday. Detailed surveys of the damage can only be carried out once the gas has stopped leaking.

Key Developments:

• Germany will need to borrow €200 billion to fund gas bill discount
• German regulator warns gas use needs to fall at least 20% to avoid shortage
• Finland says only a state actor is capable of Nord Stream sabotage
• Nord Stream pipelines have four leaks
• Gas futures decline after two-day rally

(All times are UK.)

UK Authorities Discussing Increased Vigilance of Assets (4:56 p.m.)

UK authorities and energy asset operators are “engaged” in discussions over whether extra security measures are needed at facilities including pipelines, according to Offshore Energies UK, Britain’s main lobby group for the oil and gas industry.

Britain’s offshore facilities already have well-tested security arrangements, but it’s sensible to see if there’s “anything else we could and should be doing to be prepared from a physical security perspective,” Mark Wilson, OEUK operations director, told reporters on Thursday.

UK Becomes Net Electricity Exporter (4:46 p.m.)

The UK exported more power than it imported during the second quarter of the year for the first time since 2010. The volume both of electricity and gas leaving the UK jumped nearly 600% in the three months to June this year compared to the previous year, according to UK government data.

It’s unclear whether such high volumes of exports can be sustained. There’s likely to be rising demand within the UK as it gets dark and cold, meaning some flows out of the country may have to be curtailed when supplies get tight.

RWE to Restart Three Idled Lignite Plants (2:55 p.m.)

RWE AG will bring back three lignite-fired power plants that had been on standby in October, the company said in a statement.

Germany plans to rely more on coal and lignite this winter to help keep the lights on and reduce gas use in electricity generation.

Algeria Locks In Higher Gas Price Deals (2:50 p.m)

Algeria will benefit from higher natural gas prices as it locks in deals with two European Union nations anxious to secure enough natural gas supplies for the coming winter.

State-controlled Algerian energy producer Sonatrach Group concluded a deal with Italy’s Enel SpA on Wednesday and said it will soon announce one with Naturgy Energy Group SA, ending a months-long stalemate with the Spanish utility over contractual price revisions.  

Emir of Qatar to Meet European Leaders Next Week (2:30 p.m.)

Qatar’s ruler plans to attend an informal gathering of European leaders in Prague on Oct. 6, where he will also have the chance to hold bilateral meetings with some of the leaders, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani’s trip comes as European countries have been jockeying to sign deals with Qatar to access more of its LNG exports.

Germany Pushes Uniper to Get Rid of Russian Assets (1:50 p.m.)

Germany risks being left holding 2.2 billion euros of unsellable Russian energy assets when it takes over Uniper SE at the end of the year.

The government may have no choice but to give up the assets. Even if a sale were possible, President Vladimir Putin has made it almost impossible for international energy companies to secure big financial gains when they exit Russia.

Germany to help with Gas Bills (1:35 p.m.)

The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set out a plan to limit the impact of soaring gas bills for households and businesses. The measure will be financed by redeploying a fund created to help offset the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and bolstered by €200 billion of borrowing.

Germany is especially vulnerable to the surge in energy costs triggered by the war in Ukraine due to a heavy reliance on imports of Russian gas. 

Repairing Nord Stream To Be Challenging (12:30 p.m.)

Repair works at approximately 70 meters water depth will be “a technical challenge”, said Gerald Linke, chairman at Germany’s gas and water association DVGW. Works are carried out in submersible diving bells that are lowered over the pipeline. 

Water may enter the pipeline, depending on the size of the leak and the topography of the pipeline, Linke said. To take water out, overpressure needs to be applied or water could be forced back by so-called pigs, an equipment with a special pushing device. Pigs are also used to tightly close the two pipeline strings to the left and right of the damaged site.

Europe Looking at How to Increase Protections (12:15 p.m.)

The European Commission says it’s supporting the national authorities conducting the investigation into the leaks from the Nord Stream pipelines, the EU executive’s spokesperson Dana Spinant said at a briefing on Thursday. Brussels is also working with member states to see how to increase protection and resilience of the infrastructure.

Finland Boosts Gas Pipeline Security (11:58 a.m.)

Finland’s network operator Gasgrid has increased security around the Balticconnector pipeline, which connects the Nordic country with Estonia, Finance Minister Annika Saarikko told reporters Thursday.

The attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines earlier this week highlight Finland’s need to ensure it’s sufficiently prepared against threats to critical infrastructure, Saarikko said following a meeting of the cabinet’s preparedness group.

Europe’s Industry Pleads for More Help (11:26 a.m.)

“More immediate and efficient measures” are needed to solve the energy crisis in Europe, trade groups representing energy-intensive industries from fertilizer to glass-making said in a joint statement. Many sectors are suffering plant shutdowns and layoffs as gas prices hold at “unbearable” levels, they said, and called for electricity prices to be disconnected from gas prices.

Germany Nears Deal on Gas Levy Substitute (10:45 a.m.)

Germany’s coalition parties are close to a deal on introducing a so-called gas-price brake as an alternative to a planned levy on consumers, Handelsblatt reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the talks. The government will earmark about 150 billion to 200 billion euros to cover the cost of the price cap, to be funded through the Economic Stabilization Fund that was originally created to address the impact of the Covid pandemic.

NATO Promised ‘Determined’ Response (10:42 a.m.)

NATO allies warned any deliberate attack against allies’ infrastructure would be met with a “united and determined response” following the gas pipeline leaks in the Baltic Sea.

In a joint statement, the North Atlantic Council echoed other officials, saying information currently indicates the leaks are the result of “deliberate, reckless and irresponsible acts of sabotage.” They added they are committed to defending against any “coercive use of energy or hybrid tactics by state and non-state actors.”

Even as Poland has blamed Russia for the damage, the NATO statement refrained from naming any names as a joint investigation by Denmark, Sweden and Germany is underway.

German Regulator Warns of Gas Shortage (11 a.m.)

Germany’s network regulator said gas demand was well above average last week as temperatures fell and said savings of at least 20% are needed to avert a shortage this winter.

“This week’s numbers are very sobering,” Klaus Mueller, president of the Bundesnetzagentur, said in an emailed statement, adding that consumption data provide only a “snapshot” and the situation can quickly change. “Savings must also be made when temperatures continue to fall,” he added. The agency said that gas consumption needs to decline by “at least 20%” to prevent a shortage.

Sweden Says Exact Leak Locations Not Known (9:36 a.m.)

Sweden’s Coast Guard became aware of two leaks in the pipelines in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone at the same time as they learned of two in Denmark on September 26, communicating it on their website, according to a spokesman reached by phone. It isn’t known which parts of the pipelines the leaks are in, he said.

Greece to Get LNG From TotalEnergies (9:08 a.m.)

Greece’s Public Gas Corporation of Greece AE has agreed a deal for the supply of two liquefied natural gas carriers a month for the next five months from November 2022 to March 2023, the country’s Energy Ministry said in emailed statement.

Gas Prices Drop (8:00 a.m.)

European natural gas prices declined as much as 5.4% on Thursday after two days of gains as tensions between Russia and the continent threatened further derailment of gas supplies.

Warmer weather from next week is likely to delay heating demand, bringing some relief to prices.

EU Gas Cap Could Push Up Prices (7:30 p.m. Wednesday)

Capping natural gas prices, a move urged by more than a half of member states seeking to quickly contain the crisis, risks increasing demand for the fuel rather than addressing its scarcity if imposed in isolation, the European Commission said in a document seen by Bloomberg News.

To be effective, an intervention in the gas market should limit the influence of Russia’s manipulation of pipeline supplies and reduce Moscow’s revenues, bring down the price of imported gas for consumers and cut excessive price volatility, according to the commission. The document will be discussed by energy ministers meeting in Brussels on Friday. 

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Sabotage of Nord Stream Pipe Lines: A new phase of hybrid war 

in World — by Slavisha Batko Milacic — 01/10/2022

On Tuesday, September 27, Gazprom announced unprecedented damage to the company’s two gas pipelines that run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea to Germany – Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2. Almost immediately, this information was confirmed by the Danes, in whose exclusive economic space near the island of Bornholm the accident occurred. Then the Swedish seismologists spoke about the underwater explosions recorded by them with a capacity of up to 100 kg in TNT equivalent.

It is now well understood that the two largest arteries connecting Europe with Russian gas fields have simultaneously gone out of service for a long time and need substantial repairs. Both branches of the gas pipeline along the bottom of the Baltic sea were able to supply European consumers with up to 110 billion cubic meters of gas per year. For comparison, none of the remaining ones has a capacity of more than 33 billion cubic meters. Moreover, one branch of the gas pipelines passes through the territory of Ukraine engulfed in military chaos, which has long been engaged in gas blackmail, and the second goes through the territory of Poland, from where congratulations are already being heard to the United States for undermining the Baltic “blue artery”.

Russia is convening the UN Security Council on Friday evening, where, obviously, any explanation of what happened, and possibly evidence of sabotage, will be presented. Meanwhile, information is spreading on the network about the strange activity of the US Navy and US Navy aviation in early September on the Nord Stream route at the accident site. A series of recorded flights of NATO military aviation a few weeks ago, as well as tests of underwater drones conducted as part of the BALTOPS 22 exercises, by the way, just on the Danish Bornholm – all this leads to very bad suspicions.

Now, even if Berlin is ready for direct compromises with Moscow in gas supplies, it is dependent on Poland and the Czech Republic, through whose territories the remaining branches go. And this, not to mention Ukraine, controls a significant segment of the Pomary – Uzhgorod gas pipeline. True, there are two more branches along the bottom of the Black Sea, however, Turkey, where they lead, is itself interested in Russian gas.

Naturally, Washington and Brussels will try to lay responsibility for the destruction of gas pipelines on Russia. Actually, on the afternoon of September 28, the largest media outlets in Great Britain and Germany announced that they had been put out of action by the “special unit of naval saboteurs” of Russian military intelligence. Of course, this is a compliment to the Russian army, since it turns out that the Russians blew up pipes in the zone of permanent NATO military exercises under the noses of the US and Danish navies. But is the current situation beneficial to Moscow?

If Berlin wants to warm the people of Germany, he now has no alternative but to urgently put pressure on Ukraine and Poland, reduce the intensity of anti-Russian rhetoric and somehow end the war. After all, after the sabotage at the Nord Stream, the leadership of Germany does not have the opportunity to conclude a “behind-the-scenes gas deal” with the Kremlin. Also Poland is completely under American influence, and attacks on Berlin have been heard more than once from the warring Kyiv. German politicians simply will not be listened to. And it is unlikely that the Kremlin, even in the most rosy dreams, imagined how the Bundeswehr urgently takes under protection branches of life-saving gas pipelines on foreign territory. Greater realists than Russian politicians are hard to find.

So, if you argue in the traditions of the Roman Parliament, “Who benefits?” – there is only one answer, the main beneficiary of the consequences of two explosions in the Baltic Sea is Washington, which in winter can become the main savior of Europe, supplying liquefied gas. However, let’s not forget about the small players. Nord Stream is not the only gas pipeline running along the bottom of the Baltic. Central Europe receives part of its gas from Norway. However, the gas production of this northern Scandinavian country is already operating at the capacity limit.

In any case, the trial, which starts on Friday, is unlikely to end with a call to account for the true culprits of the man-made disaster. The United States, of course, will declare its non-involvement, as will the Russian Federation, and Poland, and Denmark. And the organization of emergency repair of damaged areas in the current geopolitical situation is virtually impossible. Moreover, blowing up a gas pipeline running through a shallow depth is much easier than restoring it. So, now the Germans hardly have a chance to survive the winter without much loss.

Well, the explosions at Bornholm, obviously, will become the same mystery of world history as the assassination of Kennedy. We hardly know for sure about its true performers!

Slavisha Batko Mila

cic: I live in Podgorica (capital of Montenegro), I am 31 years old, and I graduated history at University of Montenegro. My specialist graduate thesis was: “Foreign Policy of Russia from 1905 to 1917”. I have been doing analytics for years, writing in English and Serbian about the situation in the Balkans and Europe.

CONSPIRACY THEORY; THE REDS DID IT

Nord Stream pipeline ‘damaged beyond repair crippling £35billion project FOREVER’ after huge blasts triggered earthquake

THIS IS NOT JUST MISINFORMATION IT IS

DISINFORMATION

Henry Holloway

THE SUN

28 Sep 2022

NORD STREAM is feared to have been damaged beyond repair and left crippled indefinitely after it was torn open by a series of explosions.

German officials reportedly believe the project - estimated to be worth around £35billion - may never be fully operational again.

Gas leak at Nord Stream 2 as seen from the Danish F-16 interceptor

Credit: Reuters

It is feared the key gas network could have been sabotaged by Russia as tensions continue to rage with Europe over the war in Ukraine.

Twin 800-mile pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 can ferry 110billion cubic metres of gas annually from Russia into Western Europe.

Gas has not been flowing in recent weeks - and it is unclear at this stage how big an impact this will have on the European energy markets.

Prices had already spiked by up to 12 per cent following the apparent sabotage, deepening fears the continent is facing a cold and bleak winter.

READ MORE ON RUSSIA


IN DEEP
Russia's elite 'Frogmen' commandos revealed with underwater guns & killer dolphins

German security services reportedly believe the damage has left the pipeline "forever unusable" - with three of four tubes so severely damaged they are now beyond repair, reports Tagesspiegel.

The paper reports the size of the holes in the pipes is sending large amounts of corrosive salt water flowing inside - further damaging them.

German government officials believe the complexity and scale of the attack could have only been carried out by a "state actor".

And the current theory is that Russia was behind it, even though "the motive is unclear".

European authorities are now desperately trying to piece together what exactly happened in the run up to the blasts just off the coast of Danish island Bornholm.

Nord Stream 2's single undamaged tube is now theoretically the only one which can now deliver gas - but the pipeline has not been operational for some time.

Massive leaks in the pipeline have left parts of the Baltic roiling with bubbles as residual gas leaks into the sea.

Two underwater explosions were detected on Monday alongside a mini earthquake.

Ukraine and Poland have pointed the finger at Moscow - while other European nations have stopped short of attributing blame.

Putin has been previously accused of weaponising the energy crisis in a bid to pile pressure on the West.

Russia has denied the allegations, calling them "predictable and stupid".

It opens up a new front in the war. It means the Ukrainian war is now going to the BalticProfessor Michael Clarke

Professor Joan Cordiner, professor of process engineering at the University of Sheffield, said: "Pipes don't just leak catastrophically suddenly.

"Typically normal leaks due to corrosion start small and build up over time.

"Therefore such a sudden large leak can only have come from a sudden blow cutting the pipe."

Professor Michael Clarke, a security and defence analyst, told Sky News: "This is not some casual terrorist act, it has to be a government.

"The only government who could really gain from that, in a peculiar way, is Russia – none of the European governments would want to do it."

He added: "Privately, everyone is convinced this is a Kremlin-inspired piece of sabotage.

"This is a strategic own goal because although it increases the sense of isolation that there will be no Russian gas for Europe this winter, it actually destroys Russia's credibility completely with European customers for the next couple of generations."

Prof Clarke explained the Russians would want to "create insecurity" and warned there "may be more of this".

"It opens up a new front in the war. It means the Ukrainian war is now going to the Baltic," he warned.

Europe is already braced for a bleak winter as gas becomes a key pawn in Putin's clash on the West.

Rolling blackouts, four day weeks, and normal people being unable to afford to heat their homes are just some of the consequences feared to sweep across the continent as temperatures plunge.

Gas prices were already high before the Ukraine war as demand soared after the lifting of Covid restrictions.

But prices skyrocketed after the invasion as Russia is one of the world's biggest producers.

Continental Europe is heavily reliant in Russian gas imports, leading to fears of winter blackouts, rationing and factory closures in Germany.

Only a tiny fraction of Britain's gas comes directly from Russia.

But the UK relies more on gas for generating electricity than European neighbours because it has less nuclear and renewable energy.

Britain also has little storage capacity, forcing energy firms to buy gas on the highly volatile short-term spot market.

Even the abundant North Sea gas is sold to the UK based on international market prices.

VLAD’S RANSOM
Chilling secret reason behind ‘gangster’ Putin’s attack on gas pipeline that could see West’s internet COLLAPSE

Adrian Zorzut
Henry Holloway
Rebecca Husselbee

29 Sep 2022

VLADIMIR Putin could be plotting to strike Europe's key infrastructures and hold the West to ransom after the Nord Stream pipeline attack, experts have warned.

Pipelines, rigs and undersea cables could be next on Russia's hit list as 'gangster' Putin tries to cow Europe into ending support for Ukraine.

An aerial shot by Swedish coast guards shows the release of gas from the Nord Stream gas leaks

Credit: Reuters

Mad Vlad has threatened to use 'all means available' to protect Russian territory

Credit: Alamy


It's feared the Nord Stream attack was a chilling signal to the West as part of the tyrant's attempt to 'escalate to de-escalate' - forcing them to back down.

As part of his plan, a brutal attack on the West means a response would become worthless or elicit an even more extreme reaction.

Putin's mafia-style response would target key oil and gas pipelines and vital undersea cables that carry 97 per cent of internet traffic with $10 trillion worth of daily financial transactions dependent on them.

German interior minister Nancy Faeser warned western European leaders that they needed to prepare for "previously unimaginable" threats while NATO draws up plans to "address the protection of critical infrastructure".

READ MORE ON PUTIN


GAS CHAOS
Fourth Nord Stream gas leak discovered off Sweden after ‘premeditated bomb blast’

TORN APART
Nord Stream pipeline ‘damaged beyond repair crippling £35billion project'

High up on Putin's target list could be two pipelines supplying Britain with vital oil and gas from Norway - the Norpipe and the Britpipe.

Britain's largest oil and gas fields, which are fixed with dozens of rigs and pipelines and sit close to Norwegian waters.

The 220-mile-long Norpipe, owned by company Gassled, carries oil to a station in Teeside.

The pipeline has the capacity to deliver 830,000 barrels of oil per day.

The Britpipe line, which supplies natural gas to the UK and Europe along a 725-mile-long pipe to Country Durham, carries 25.5billion cubic metres every year.

An undersea attack by Putin on these key pipelines could bring Britain to a standstill it's feared.

Putin's frogmen could also cut undersea internet cables carrying sensitive financial information across the Atlantic from Europe, sparking an annihilating market crash, according to one US Navy sub-warfare expert.

The cables, off the Irish coast, could be attacked by Putin's stealth 'hunter killer' subs - specially built for the task.

The Losharik spy subs are carried underneath beneath an enormous "mothership" undersea Belgorod vessel and are built to lurk at the bottom of the ocean.

They enter the Atlantic by sailing down from the Arctic.

The vessels then use robotic arms to tamper with or even cut key cables that help keep the world's economy moving with potentially devastating consequences.

Cutting enough of the network in the Atlantic could cause chaos for Britain, with Air Marshall Sir Stuart Peach previously warning such a breach could be "catastrophic".

It could shut down the internet, cut Britain off from the rest of the world, paralyse financial transactions, and damage communications with the military overseas.

It could also cause significant problems for the US, which use the cables as a line of communication with its NATO allies.

It's also feared Russia or other state actors could tap into the cables to steal information.

Meanwhile, Professor Damien Erns from the University of Liege in Belgium said Europe faced a "terrible recession" if any of its critical infrastructures were struck, adding protection systems are woefully unfit for purpose.

"Our infrastructure is not very well protected and it is extremely difficult to secure them over thousands of kilometres," he said.

"If gas supplies from Norway to Europe were cut off, we would see a terrible recession. We would not even be able to heat ourselves and produce electricity.

"The fears are very serious and well-founded. Europe has no more room for manoeuvre and we cannot exclude that things will deteriorate very significantly in the coming months."

Bryan Clark, a former US Navy strategic planner turned security expert, said efforts to survey the Baltic and North Sea could be eluded by Russia's state-of-the-art sabotage subs.

He said: "It’s all part of the Russian style of political warfare.

"It’s about sowing doubt, creating just enough fog of uncertainty."

The Baltic is also very shallow with deep underwater currents whilst the seabed is littered with WWII wrecks.

It comes amid fears the Nord Stream gas line may have been damaged beyond repair after it was torn open by a series of explosions.

German officials reportedly believe the project - estimated to be worth around £35billion - may never be fully operational again.

It is feared the key gas network could have been sabotaged by Russia as tensions continue to rage with Europe over the war in Ukraine.

Twin 800-mile pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 can ferry 110billion cubic metres of gas annually from Russia into Western Europe.

Gas has not been flowing in recent weeks - and it is unclear at this stage how big an impact this will have on the European energy markets.

Gas leak at Nord Stream 2 as seen from the Danish F-16 interceptor

Credit: Reuters

Prices had already spiked by up to 12 per cent following the apparent sabotage, deepening fears the continent is facing a cold and bleak winter.

German government officials believe the complexity and scale of the attack could have only been carried out by a "state actor".

And the current theory is that Russia was behind it, even though "the motive is unclear".

European authorities are now desperately trying to piece together what exactly happened in the run-up to the blasts just off the coast of Danish island Bornholm.

Nord Stream 2's single undamaged tube is now theoretically the only one which can now deliver gas - but the pipeline has not been operational for some time.

Massive leaks in the pipeline have left parts of the Baltic roiling with bubbles as residual gas leaks into the sea.

Two underwater explosions were detected on Monday alongside a mini earthquake.

Ukraine and Poland have pointed the finger at Moscow - while other European nations have stopped short of attributing blame.

Russia has denied the allegations, calling them "predictable and stupid".

Professor Joan Cordiner, Professor of process engineering at the University of Sheffield, said: "Pipes don't just leak catastrophically suddenly.

"Typically normal leaks due to corrosion start small and build up over time.


"Therefore such a sudden large leak can only have come from a sudden blow cutting the pipe."

Prof Clarke explained the Russians would want to "create insecurity" and warned there "may be more of this".

"It opens up a new front in the war. It means the Ukrainian war is now going to the Baltic," he warned.

Europe is already braced for a bleak winter as gas becomes a key pawn in Putin's clash on the West.

If gas supplies from Norway to Europe were cut off, we would see a terrible recession. We would not even be able to heat ourselves and produce electricityProfessor Damien Erns

Rolling blackouts, four-day weeks, and normal people being unable to afford to heat their homes are just some of the consequences feared to sweep across the continent as temperatures plunge.

Gas prices were already high before the Ukraine war as demand soared after the lifting of Covid restrictions.

But prices skyrocketed after the invasion as Russia is one of the world's biggest producers.

Continental Europe is heavily reliant on Russian gas imports, leading to fears of winter blackouts, rationing and factory closures in Germany.


Only a tiny fraction of Britain's gas comes directly from Russia.

But the UK relies more on gas for generating electricity than European neighbours because it has less nuclear and renewable energy.


Britain also has little storage capacity, forcing energy firms to buy gas on the highly volatile short-term spot market.

Even the abundant North Sea gas is sold to the UK based on international market prices.

Footage from a helicopter shows the sea bubbling above the Nord Stream pipelines

Credit: FORSVARET

SEE https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2022/09/nord-stream-sabotage-mapped-how-putin.html

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2022/09/updates-whats-happening-with-nord.html

What Do Mysterious Nord Stream Methane Leaks Mean for Climate Change?

Researchers are rushing to calculate the greenhouse-gas emissions resulting from mysterious leaks in major gas pipelines that connect Russia to Europe

By Katharine Sanderson, Nature magazine on September 30, 2022

Danish Defense shows the gas leaking at Nord Stream 2 seen from the Danish F-16 interceptor on Bornholm, Denmark on September 27, 2022. 

 Credit: Danish Defence/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Since 26 September, mysterious leaks have appeared in the underwater Nord Stream gas pipelines—which run from Russia to Germany—close to the Danish island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea. Given the tense energy situation between Russia and the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a real-life geopolitical whodunit has ensued, with NATO now among those attributing the leaks to sabotage. Seismologists picked up data that might help to pinpoint the cause of the leaks, and other researchers are trying to work out how much methane—a potent greenhouse gas—will be released as a result.

Overnight on 26 September, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline’s operators saw a sudden pressure drop, from 105 bar (which is 105 times atmospheric pressure) to just 7 bar. Soon after, a 1-kilometre-wide area of the Baltic Sea’s surface was bubbling with the escaping gas.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been shut since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, but it is still full of gas, which is assumed to be around 90% methane. The drop in pressure prompted seismologists to look more closely at their data, says Björn Lund at Uppsala University, Sweden. The attention on seismology data has made for an extraordinary week. “I’ve never experienced anything like it,” says Lund, adding that his network detected seismic activity at the same time as the leak that is consistent with explosions, not earthquakes—which have a different seismic fingerprint.

CLIMATE ALERT

The events have also put the climate community on alert. When Andrew Baxter, once an engineer in the oil and gas industry, now the director of energy transition at the Environmental Defense Fund, based in New York City, heard about the leak in Nord Stream 2, he “switched back into engineering mode” to try to quantify the resulting methane release. “I came up with a very rough estimate, there are so many variables and unknowns here, it’s very difficult to definitively say how much methane has made it into the atmosphere,” he says.

Baxter estimated that 115,000 tonnes of methane had probably been released during the initial sudden pressure drop in Nord Stream 2, on the basis of the pipe’s dimensions and the water temperature. Per unit mass, methane has a much more potent greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide—particularly in the short term. Baxter says the overall impact of this leak is equivalent to the annual carbon emissions from two million cars.

“If these numbers end up being confirmed, it would be the one of the largest single leaks of natural gas in history in a single location,” says Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, a data-analysis non-profit organization in California. But he adds that this doesn’t fundamentally change the magnitude of global emissions.

The event, although huge, accounts for around 0.14% of the global annual methane emissions from the oil and gas industry, says Mark Davis, chief executive of Capterio, a company in London that tracks gas flares from industry, but which didn’t detect the vented gas because it isn’t burning. He argues that, once the leak was discovered, setting it alight could have mitigated much of the damage, by converting the methane to carbon dioxide. Since the initial pressure drop in Nord Stream 2, leaks have also been reported in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which runs alongside it and is also currently not operational.

SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS

Measuring precisely how much methane has been emitted is going to take time. Efforts so far have been hampered by the quirks of geography and bad luck. The public satellites that environmental observations rely on were not facing the right way at the time, says Itziar Irakulis-Loitxate at Valencia Polytechnic University, Spain, who uses satellite data to measure atmospheric methane levels. And the cloud cover common at the northern latitudes meant that it was almost impossible to get any data. That is on top an inherent challenge in monitoring methane over water: water absorbs most of the sunlight and masks any signal from methane in a spectrometer.

The methane spike was detected from the ground by at least one observatory: the Swedish station of the European Integrated Carbon Observation System project at Hyltemossa.

In the coming days and weeks, scientists will continue to try to understand how much methane has been released as a result of the leaks. Seismologists might also be able to help to determine how the pipes were ruptured. By comparing the seismic data they collected on the Nord Stream explosions with that from previous naval blasts, Lund and his team already suspect TNT.

Lund and his colleagues are scrambling to work out from their seismic data exactly how many blasts occurred, but he notes that the complex geology of Earth’s crust in the region between Denmark and Sweden makes it hard. “There’s a very big change in the thickness of the crust of the rock material,” he says.

Nord Stream gas leaks: What they mean for the climate and global energy prices

Amalyah Hart

30 September 2022 

RENEW ECONOMY

Photo taken from the Swedish Coast Guard aircraft. 

Credit: SWEDISH COAST GUARD HANDOUT

Four major leaks were discovered this week in the two pipelines that usually shuttle liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia to Europe.

NATO has labelled the suspected sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines 1 and 2 in the Baltic Sea as “deliberate, reckless and irresponsible acts”.

The pipelines in question have been at the centre of a storm of controversy for months as Russia cut gas supplies to Europe amid mounting tensions over the war in Ukraine.

Before the war in Ukraine, Russia supplied more than half of all the natural gas used in Germany and more than 40% of the EU’s LNG.

In response to sanctions against Russia, however, Nord Stream 1 operated at a fraction of its capacity over summer, while Nord Stream 2 never opened.
Largest leakage of methane in a single event ever recorded

Though not in operation, the two pipelines were still full of LNG, and are now haemorrhaging methane – a greenhouse gas at least 25 times more potent than CO2 over a 100-year time frame – into the atmosphere from four seething patches of the Baltic Sea.

The four leaks are the largest cumulative leakage of methane in a single event ever recorded. Deliberate sabotage was seemingly confirmed by reports from Seismologists in Sweden and Denmark earlier in the week of several powerful explosions in the area.

Speaking with ABC News, Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson labelled the sabotage “war crimes”.

Though most governments have fallen short of naming Russia directly responsible for the explosions, Poland’s foreign minister has called the leaks ‘an element of Russian hybrid war’.

What is the climate impact?

It’s unclear how much gas was in the pipes, but according to Kristoffer Böttzauw, director of the Danish Energy Agency, the leaks may amount to about 14 million tonnes of CO2, roughly 32% of Denmark’s annual emissions – and Denmark and Sweden will have to include the leaks within their annual climate reporting.

It looks as though these leaks will be less damaging to the climate than the headlines might suggest, however: the US Geological Survey estimated the total amount of methane released would amount to about 0.1% of annual global methane emissions.

Similarly, British climate scientist Chris Smith tweeted on Thursday, “I ran the numbers on the #NordStream methane leak and thankfully the climate impact is small: median additional warming of 0.000016C that peaks by 2030.”

“They’re pretty small in the global context but very big by comparison with other leaks we know about,” said Peter Rayner, a professor of climate science at the University of Melbourne.

“Anthropogenic emissions of methane are in the hundreds of millions of tonnes each year and one estimate for this is half a million so it’s a big event but not a long-term story.”

According to Drew Shindell, a professor of earth science at Duke University, US, the emissions rival those of a medium-sized city.

“It’s not trivial, but it’s a modest-sized US city, something like that,” Shindell told the Washington Post. “There are so many sources all around the world. Any single event tends to be small. I think this tends to fall in that category.”
Impact on marine life

Concerns were also raised about the potential impact of the leaks on the environment and marine life of the Baltic Sea.

A spokesperson for Germany’s Environment Ministry told Deutsche Welle, “according to our current knowledge, the leaks in the Nord Stream pipeline do not pose any serious threat to the marine environment of the Baltic Sea.ʺ

While the potential for explosions near to the leaks pose a present threat to marine life – and boats – nearby, the long-term impacts look to be minimal, as all the methane will either escape into the atmosphere or be consumed by microbes in the water.

“I’m not a toxicologist so I can’t comment on acute toxicity but this stuff will disperse pretty quickly into the ocean and the atmosphere provided the leak has stopped,” Rayner said.

Will the leaks affect Australian gas prices?

The leak announcements led the price of natural gas per megawatt-hour in Europe to rise 12.8% on Wednesday to €209.88 (AU$317.24), despite the fact that both pipelines at the time were sitting idle, loaded with gas not bound for anywhere.

Perhaps more alarming, Kremlin-controlled gas company Gazprom this week threatened to halt gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine by imposing sanctions on Naftogaz, the Ukrainian gas company.

This latest surge in gas prices comes after several weeks of decline thanks to European efforts to bolster gas supplies ahead of the coming winter.

While Australia’s gas prices have risen, they have tailed behind soaring European prices. Nonetheless, gas price hikes affect every facet of the global market, and the resultant economic damage is exported around the world by the rise in other costs.

“I think it’s probably not yet clear how this will affect other regions,” said David Frame, director of the New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute (NZCCRI) at the Victoria University of Wellington.

“Those most directly affected will be in Europe, though also potentially in other places in Eurasia which utilise piped gas if they perceive risks to their supplies to be elevated. Beyond that, it’s hard to know.”

But Frame acknowledged that the crisis is likely to ripple outwards into other areas.

“Europe will presumably be increasing its demand for other fossil fuels to see them through the energy disruption, and that might push other fuel prices up,” he said. “It’s hard to say at this point, I think.”

Can the leaks be repaired easily?

Germany’s security agency believes the damage may have made the pipelines ‘unusable forever’, as reported by Tagesspiegel. And technical experts say the pipelines will be harder to repair once all of the gas has escaped and they fill with seawater and start to corrode.

Any attempt to repair them before that point would be too dangerous, however, because methane gas is highly flammable and therefore explosive.

It’s the final nail in the coffin for the old world-order of European reliance on Russian gas. But what’s the solution?
Another boost for renewables?

According to Rayner, this new twist in the beleaguered story of the European gas crisis may ultimately propel the shift to renewables.

“They’ve a short-term problem (this winter) and a longer-term one if supply stays blocked,” said Rayner.

“They won’t be able to switch their energy system overnight so they’ll probably use gas plus potentially reopen their mothballed coal and nuclear plants, but I suspect they’ll never risk dependence on Russian gas again, probably accelerating the renewables switch.”

“I hope this will focus minds on moving away from reliance on fossil sources of energy, especially where these can be used as geopolitical bargaining chips,” added Frame. “It’s an obvious lesson but one that appears to need to be learned every few decades.”

Amalyah Hart is a science journalist based in Melbourne.

Nord Stream rupture may mark biggest single methane release ever recorded - UN

Reuters

Sep 30, 2022 • 

The ruptures on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline system under the Baltic Sea has led to what is likely the biggest single release of climate-damaging methane ever recorded, the United Nations Environment Programme said on Friday.

A huge plume of highly concentrated methane, a greenhouse gas far more potent but shorter-lived than carbon dioxide, was detected in an analysis this week of satellite imagery by researchers associated with UNEP’s International Methane Emissions Observatory, or IMEO, the organization said.

“This is really bad, most likely the largest emission event ever detected,” Manfredi Caltagirone, acting head of the IMEO for UNEP, told Reuters. “This is not helpful in a moment when we absolutely need to reduce emissions,” he said.

Researchers have not yet been able to quantify from the imagery the amount of methane leaking from the Gazprom-led pipeline system, but believe the rate of emissions is higher than from a major leak that occurred in December from offshore oil and gas fields in Mexican waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which spilled around 100 metric tons of methane per hour, Caltagirone said.

The Gulf of Mexico leak, also viewable from space, ultimately released around 40,000 metric tons of methane over 17 days, according to a study conducted by the Polytechnic University of Valencia and published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology Letters.

That is the equivalent of burning 1.1 billion pounds of coal, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator.

Improved satellite technology has rapidly enhanced the ability of scientists to find and analyze greenhouse gas emissions in recent years, something some governments hope will help companies detect and prevent methane emissions.

The major leaks that suddenly erupted in the Nord Stream gas pipelines that run from Russia to Europe have generated plenty of theories but few clear answers about who or what caused the damage. Both Russia and the European Union have suggested the ruptures were caused by saboteurs.

Europe and the United States have heaped sanctions on Moscow in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, raising worries the Kremlin will seek to deprive Europe of crucial energy supplies leading into the winter.

Caltagirone said, whatever the cause, the damage to the pipeline posed a problem beyond energy security. “This is the most wasteful way to generate emissions,” he said.

 (Writing by Richard Valdmanis Editing by Frances Kerry)

8 things to know about the environmental impact of ‘unprecedented’ Nord Stream leaks

Suspected sabotage will release large amounts of methane, but it’s a ‘wee bubble’ compared with what’s emitted globally every day.

Snow and storms near the island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea, 

where the Nord Stream pipeline leaked | 

Pelle Rink/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images

BY KARL MATHIESEN AND ZIA WEISE
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022 8:25 PM

The apparent sabotage of both Nord Stream gas pipelines may be one of the worst industrial methane accidents in history, scientists said Wednesday, but it's not a major climate disaster.

Methane — a greenhouse gas up to 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide — is escaping into the atmosphere from three boiling patches on the surface of the Baltic Sea, the largest of which the Danish military said was a kilometer across.

On Tuesday evening, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the “sabotage” and “deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure.”

Here are eight key questions on the impact of the leaks.


1. How much methane was in the pipelines?

No government agency in Europe could say for sure how much gas was in the pipes.

“I cannot tell you clearly as the pipelines are owned by Nord Stream AG and the gas comes from Gazprom,” said a spokesperson for the German climate and economy ministry.

The two Nord Stream 1 pipelines were in operation, although Moscow stopped delivering gas a month ago, and both were hit. “It can be assumed that it’s a large amount” of gas in those lines, the German official said. Only one of the Nord Stream 2 lines was struck. It was not in operation but was filled with 177 million cubic meters of gas last year.

Estimates of the total gas in the pipelines that are leaking range from 150 million cubic meters to 500 million cubic meters.

2. How much is being released?

Kristoffer Böttzauw, the director of the Danish Energy Agency, told reporters on Wednesday that the leaks would equate to about 14 million tons of CO2, about 32 percent of Denmark's annual emissions.

Germany's Federal Environment Agency estimated the leaks will lead to emissions of around 7.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent — about 1 percent of Germany's annual emissions. The agency also noted there are no "sealing mechanisms" along the pipelines, "so in all likelihood the entire contents of the pipes will escape."

Because at least one of the leaks is in Danish waters, Denmark will have to add these emissions to its climate balance sheet, the agency said.

But it is not clear whether all of the gas in the lines would actually be released into the atmosphere. Methane is also consumed by ocean bacteria as it heads through the water column.

3. How does that compare to previous leaks?

The largest leak ever recorded in the U.S. was the 2015 Aliso Canyon leak of roughly 90,000 tons of methane over months. With the upper estimates of what might be released in the Baltic more than twice that, this week's disaster may be "unprecedented," said David McCabe, a senior scientist with the Clean Air Task Force.

Jeffrey Kargel, a senior scientist at the Planetary Research Institute in Tucson, Arizona, said the leak was "really disturbing. It is a real travesty, an environmental crime if it was deliberate."

4. Will this have a meaningful effect on global temperatures?

"The amount of gas lost from the pipeline obviously is large," Kargel said. But "it is not the climate disaster one might think."

Annual global carbon emissions are around 32 billion tons, so this represents a tiny fraction of the pollution driving climate change. It even pales in comparison to the accumulation of thousands of industrial and agricultural sources of methane that are warming the planet.

“This is a wee bubble in the ocean compared to the huge amounts of so-called fugitive methane that are emitted every day around the world due to things like fracking, coal mining and oil extraction,” said Dave Reay, executive director of the Edinburgh Climate Change Institute.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said it was roughly comparable to the amount of methane leaked from across Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure on any given working week.

A leak was reported near the Nord Stream 2 pipeline off the coast of Denmark's Bornholm island | Danish Defence Command

5. Is the local environment affected?

While the gas is still leaking, the immediate vicinity is an extremely dangerous place. Air that contains more than 5 percent methane can be flammable, said Gregor Rehder, a marine biogeochemist and chemical oceanographer at the Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research, so the risk of an explosion is real. Methane is not a toxic gas, but high concentrations can reduce the amount of available oxygen.

Shipping has been restricted from a 5 nautical mile radius around the leaks. This is because the methane in the water can affect buoyancy and rupture a vessel’s hull.

Marine animals near the escaping gas may be caught up and killed — especially poor swimmers such as jellyfish, said Rehder. But long-term effects on the local environment are not anticipated.


“It's an unprecedented case,” he said. “But from our current understanding, I would think that the local effects on marine life in the area is rather small.”

6. What can be done?

Some have suggested that the remaining gas should be pumped out, but a German economy and climate ministry spokesperson on Wednesday said this wasn't possible.

Once the pipeline has emptied, "it will fill up with water," the spokesperson added. "At the moment, no one can go underwater — the danger is too great due to the escaping methane."

Any repair would be the responsibility of pipeline owner Nord Stream AG, the Germans said.

7. Should they set it on fire?     NO!!!

Not only would it look impressive, setting the gas on fire would hugely slash the global warming impact of the leak. Methane is made of carbon and hydrogen, when burned it creates carbon dioxide, which is between 30 and 80 times less planet-warming per ton than methane. Flaring, as it is known, is a common method for reducing the impact of escaping methane.

From a pure climate perspective, setting the escaping methane on fire makes sense. “Yes, definitely — it will help,” said Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds.

But there would be safety issues and potential environmental concerns, including air pollution from the combustion. "With land — in particular the inhabited and touristic island of Bornholm — nearby, you would not venture into this," said Rehder.

No government has yet indicated that this is under consideration.

8. How long will it last and what next?

“We expect that gas will flow out of the pipes until the end of the week. After that, first of all, from the Danish side, we will try to get out and investigate what the cause is, and approach the pipes, so that we can have it investigated properly. We can do that when the gas leak has stopped,” Danish Energy Agency director Böttzauw told local media.

SEE https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2022/09/baltic-sea-pipeline-leak-damages-marine.html

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2022/09/nord-stream-russian-gas-pipe-leaks.html