Opinion: The Outer Space Treaty is 55 and out of date

Back in the 60s, the Outer Space Treaty provided us with an assurance of peace and security in the Cold War space race. So much has changed since then — so, why hasn't the Treaty — asks DW's Zulfikar Abbany.

Each time the USA planted a flag on the moon, it stuck a stake in the heart of the Outer Space Treaty

Consider the vastness of outer space for a moment and ask yourself whether it could or should be humanly possible to sum up all of what we humans may possibly want to do in outer space in a three-page document. 

It certainly was possible in October 1967 — at least in an aspirational sense — when the Outer Space Treaty entered into force. But it shouldn't have been possible, not for a legal framework that's lasted 55 years ... and counting. 

Our use of, and ambitions for, outer space have changed to such an extent in the past five decades that those three pages* just don't cut it anymore.

*I'm discounting the preamble and Articles XIII-XVII, which is largely legal jargon. (So, altogether it's more like seven pages. Big whoop.)

So, why do we have an Outer Space Treaty? 

Back in 60s, we had two main players in space: the USA and the USSR. We were in a Cold War of ideologies, technology, world trade, resources, with battles for geographical domination on land, sea and in the skies. But not in space. 

The Cold War could have bled into space, but the two superpowers made a pledge to keep outer space free of military conflict. Plus, we had enough other battles to be getting on with on the ground — Vietnam, to name the most obvious. They reserved outer space for exploration, science, and described it as "the province of all mankind."

But they had all this rocket science left over from World War II, so why not use it — blast a few humans into space and plant a flag? Why not? Well, by planting their flag on the moon, the USA rammed a stake into the Treaty's heart. That's why.

Race through the Apollo years and you could argue that without the Outer Space Treaty, we wouldn't have had 20+ years of wonderful collaboration on the International Space Station.

Article V states that "Parties to the Treaty shall regard astronauts as envoys of mankind in outer space and shall render to them all possible assistance ..." — it's talking about helping astronauts when they return to Earth.

The spirit of those words were seen in action in the early months of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War when Russia could very well have left NASA astronaut Mark Vande Hei stranded on the ISS, but, instead, allowed him to return to Earth onboard a Russian-built Soyuz spacecraft alongside two Russian cosmonauts.

So, all good there. But spirit and goodwill won't see us through much longer. Things have changed too much since 1967.

There have been numerous other space treaties alongside, if you will allow me to paraphrase a space debris expert at the European Space Agency, "unenforceable" guidelines. But the Outer Space Treaty remains the foundation, like a ceremonial constitution, upon which all other space law is draped. 

The problem is that the Treaty is vague and itself virtually unenforceable.

DW Science Editor, Zulfikar Abbany

I've spoken to outer space experts who celebrate the Treaty for its vagueness — "that's what makes it so adaptable," they say — and I've spoken to space lawyers who agree that the Treaty is an anachronism and that it needs to go — for the very same reason.

The problem with the Outer Space Treaty

Perhaps the Treaty is not entirely at fault — perhaps it's the times in which we live. 

In the 60s, who could have predicted that we would have thousands of active satellites orbiting our planet, each under threat from 10 times as many bits of space debris — each tiny rock vying to knock out our increasingly essential global communication networks. Satellites are moved by controllers on Earth to dodge space debris more regularly than I care to look up right now.

Who would have thought that we would see China progress on the moon and other "celestial bodies" like asteroids, where all other nations have failed. China was the first country to land on the far side of the moon, but you would never have thought it in the 60s. 

It is also, along with Japan, a pioneer in what scientists call "sample return missions" — robotic retrievals of rocks and minerals that we all need for our survival on Earth.

And who would have predicted that some of the newer players in space, India among them, would be quite happy to fire rockets from Earth to shoot their own satellites out of orbit — even though the Outer Space Treaty prohibits it. 

The DART mission: It's about protecting Earth from asteroids, but who is to stop the same

 technology being used to attack a country's space interests?

Article IV refers to celestial bodies when it says that "the testing of any type of weapons ... shall be forbidden," but it's a short step from shooting your own satellite to shooting someone else's, or ramming an asteroid with a space craft (read, NASA's recent DART mission) ... 

All research and innovation is adaptable for both good and bad, and "all of mankind" has shown so many times how we just love to adapt good stuff to do bad.  

Who could have predicted it? We all could have predicted it.

But we can salvage the Treaty

We can still turn this around. We can work harder to encourage countries like China to accept "international responsibility" when their rockets — turned space junk — fall back to Earth, landing in and polluting our oceans.

Articles X and XI of the Treaty allude to equality and the sharing of information. And we can improve transparency about our ambitions for space. We can build on Earth observation programs that truly aim to benefit all people in our climate emergency.

There is, however, one thing we can't fix and that is the 60s pipedream that we could ever have managed to maintain peace in outer space. The USA officially considers space another dominion of war, so, Russia would be stupid not to. And as we can see on our screens, those old foes are still old foes. So, given how we struggle to observe international law on Earth, especially in war, what chance have we got it space?

Edited by: J. Wingard

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How climate change is shifting the water cycle

Intense monsoons and fierce drought have one thing in common: the water cycle. Climate change and other human activity is disrupting this crucial system, which makes all life on Earth possible.

The hydrological cycle ensures a continuous movement of water through the Earth's land, seas 

and atmosphere

What is the water cycle?

Put simply, the water cycle — also known as the hydrological cycle — is the process by which water moves through the Earth's land, seas and atmosphere. Water in its three natural phases, be it gas, liquid or solid, forms part of the natural cycle that continuously refreshes the supply of water that we, and every other living thing, need to survive.

Of the world's finite supply of water, around 97% is salty. The remaining 3% is fresh water which we use for things like drinking, bathing or irrigating crops. Most of that, however, is out of reach, locked away in the ice or deep underground in aquifers. Only around 1% of the world's total water supply is readily available to sustain all life on Earth.

How does the water cycle work?

The water held in lakes, rivers, oceans and seas is constantly heated by the sun. As the surface warms, liquid water evaporates and becomes vapor, escaping into the atmosphere. Wind can speed up that evaporation process. Plants also release water vapor through the pores, or stoma, of their leaves and stems, in what's known as transpiration.

Once in the air, vapor begins to cool and condense around tiny, suspended particles of dust, smoke or other pollutants, and forms clouds. These clouds can move around the planet in horizontal bands known as atmospheric rivers — a key feature of the global cycle that fuels weather systems.

When enough water vapor collects, the droplets suspended in the clouds begin to merge and grow larger. Eventually, they get too heavy and fall to the ground in the form of rain — or snow and hail, depending on the air temperature. This precipitation recharges the rivers, lakes and other bodies of water down below, and the cycle begins again.

Water also percolates through the soil under the influence of gravity and pressure, where it collects in underground reservoirs or aquifers. It continues moving to lower elevations, sometimes for thousands of years, in a process called groundwater flow before eventually seeping into a body of water to rejoin the cycle.

How climate change is disrupting the water cycle

Recent research shows that in some parts of the world, the water cycle is speeding up in response to human-caused climate change. 

Warmer temperatures are heating the lower atmosphere and increasing evaporation, adding more water vapor to the air. More water in the air means a greater chance of precipitation, often in the form of intense, unpredictable storms. Conversely, increased evaporation can also intensify dry conditions in areas prone to drought, with water escaping into the atmosphere rather than staying on the ground where it's needed.

A recent study by researchers at the Institute of Marine Sciences in Barcelona, Spain, illustrated how climate change is accelerating the cycle by analyzing ocean surface salinity, which increases as water evaporation intensifies.

"The acceleration of the water cycle has implications both at the ocean and on the continent, where storms could become increasingly intense," said Estrella Olmedo, the lead author of the study, in a press release. "This higher amount of water circulating in the atmosphere could also explain the increase in rainfall that is being detected in some polar areas, where the fact that it is raining instead of snowing is speeding up the melting."

What can we do to help?

It's become clear that drastic cuts to fossil fuel emissions won't be easy, and any noticeable improvements won't be quick. But some more immediate fixes to stabilize the water cycle are possible.

Restoring wetlands and rethinking agriculture, to incorporate farming techniques that conserve water and preserve and build up the soil, can help to maintain and restore the capacity of the ground to absorb, purify and store water.

'Sponge cities' use permeable surfaces, like this road in the Chinese city of Qian'an, to absorb water

Bringing rivers and waterways back to a more natural state can also help to reverse some of the damage. Projects to remove obsolete dams and weirs in Europe and elsewhere are a major step in the restoration of floodplains, which absorb water and help replenish groundwater reserves.

Cities can also turn to nature-based solutions to support the water cycle, by making urban surfaces more permeable. "Sponge cities" use porous surfaces to allow water to filter through streets, squares and other spaces rather than see it funneled away. This stores water for use during periods of drought, while at the same time helping to combat flooding.

What's at stake?

Cities and regions in the watershed of the Hindu Kush and Himalayan mountain ranges in Central Asia may need to start turning to solutions like these in the coming years. Billions of people there rely on the seasonal accumulation of packed snow and ice stored in mountains and glaciers for their fresh water.

But a third of the regions' major ice fields are expected to disappear by the end of this century, according to a 2019 study by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development in Nepal — and that's if we manage to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit).

The Hindu Kush and Himalayan mountain ranges in Central Asia hold 

the most ice in the world after the poles

Without a consistent flow of meltwater, water scarcity will increase for billions of people. And while groundwater can make up some of the shortfall, that's also projected to decrease in the coming decades due to climate change. Agriculture has already become more difficult in places like the India-administered region of Ladakh, in the Hindu Kush Himalayan range, where scientists have recorded a drop in snowfall and glacier retreat over the last few decades.

"This is the climate crisis you haven't heard of," said Philippus Wester of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. "Impacts on people in the region, already one of the most fragile and hazard-prone mountain regions in the world, will range from an increase in extreme weather events, a reduction in agricultural yields and more frequent disasters."

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Germany launches probe into suspected Nord Stream 'sabotage'

German federal prosecutors announced an investigation into suspected blasts that damaged gas pipelines between Russia and Europe. Berlin has now joined Denmark and Sweden in gathering clues about the Baltic Sea leaks.

The Nord Stream leaks, thought to be deliberate, released massive amounts of gas into the Baltic Sea

Germany's federal public prosecutor on Monday announced the start of an investigation into leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines.

Germany now joins Denmark and Sweden in seeking to get to the bottom of leaks that saw massive amounts of gas released into the Baltic Sea after both pipelines were ruptured on September 26.

What did prosecutors say?

Federal prosecutors are investigating "persons unknown" suspected of "anti-constitutional sabotage" on the pipelines as well as "deliberately causing an explosion."

"Yes, we have started an investigation," a spokesperson for the prosecutor's office told Reuters news agency.

The investigation will allow German authorities to gather evidence to determine if a crime was indeed committed.

Germany's federal prosecutor's office usually only opens probes into cases that concern national security, such as terror attacks.

The office said its involvement in the pipeline leaks was justified in that a "violent attack on the energy supply could impact the external and internal security" of Germany, a spokesperson told news agency AFP.

German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann promised investigators would work in coordination with European partners to ascertain who may have been behind the pipeline leaks. Buschmann added, "We will not be intimidated by attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines."

Federal prosecutors say the probe is primarily aimed at "identifying the perpetrator or perpetrators as well as the possible motive."

Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson on Monday said Stockholm wouldn't share findings with Russia. Moreover, Sweden said it rejects Russian calls to be part of a joint investigation, though she said Moscow was free to conduct its own investigation should it choose to do so.

What do we know about the pipeline leaks?

It is largely suspected that the leaks in the Baltic Sea were caused by explosives placed near the pipelines, which deliver Russian natural gas to Germany.

Western leaders heavily suspect Russia was behind the attack, whereas Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to paint it as a Western plot to destroy Europe's energy infrastructure.

Germany's federal police as well as the federal criminal office will be involved in the investigation.

"There is sufficient factual evidence that the two gas pipelines were deliberately damaged by at least two detonations," the prosecutor's office told German news agency DPA.

The spokesperson noted, however, that "quick results are not to be expected."

This is a developing story and will be updated.

js/rs (AFP, dpa, Reuters)

Satellites detect methane plume in Nord Stream leak

by European Space Agency

This high-resolution image, captured by Pléiades Neo, shows the Nord Stream gas

 pipeline leak seen on 29 September. Credit: Pléiades Neo

Following unusual seismic disturbances in the Baltic Sea, several leaks were discovered last week in the underwater Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, near Denmark and Sweden. Neither pipeline was transporting gas at the time of the blasts, but they still contained pressurized methane—the main component of natural gas—which spewed out producing a wide stream of bubbles on the sea surface.

With the unexplained gas release posing a serious question about the incident's environmental impact, a suite of complementary Earth observation satellites carrying optical and radar imaging instruments were called upon to characterize the gas leak bubbling in the Baltic.

Although methane partly dissolves in water, released later as carbon dioxide, it is not toxic, but it is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas in our atmosphere causing climate change.

As the pressurized gas leaked through the broken pipe and traveled rapidly towards the sea surface, the size of the gas bubbles increased as the pressure reduced. On reaching the surface, the large gas bubbles disrupted the sea surface above the location of the pipeline rupture. The signature of the gas bubbling at the sea surface can be seen from space in several ways.

Owing to the persistent cloud cover over the area, image acquisitions from optical satellites proved extremely difficult. High-resolution images captured by Pléiades Neo and Planet, both part of ESA's Third Party Mission Program, showed the disturbance ranging from 500 to 700 m across the sea surface.

On 26 September, Planet satellites captured an image of the Nord Stream Gas pipeline 

rupture in the Baltic Sea, approximately 20 km southeast of Bornholm Island, Denmark. 

Credit: Planet Labs PBC

Several days later, a significant reduction in the estimated diameter of the methane disturbance was witnessed as the pipelines' gas emptied. Images captured by Copernicus Sentinel-2 and US Landsat 8 mission confirmed this.

As disturbances such as these cause a "roughening" of the sea surface, this increases the backscatter observed by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) instruments, which are extremely sensitive to changes in the sea surface at such a scale. These include instruments onboard the Copernicus Sentinel-1 and ICEYE constellation—the first New Space company to join the Copernicus Contributing Missions fleet.

ESA's Scientist for Ocean and Ice, Craig Donlon, said, "The power of active microwave radar instruments is that they can monitor the ocean surface signatures of bubbling methane through clouds over a wide swath and at a high spatial resolution overcoming one of the major limitations to optical instruments. This allows for a more complete picture of the disaster and its associated event-timing to be established."

One of the ruptures occurred southeast of the Danish Island of Bornholm. Images from Sentinel-1 on 24 September showed no disturbance to the water. However, an ICEYE satellite passing over the area on the evening of 28 September acquired an image showing a disturbance to the sea surface above the rupture.

This radar image was captured on 28 September by ICEYE— the first New Space company

 to join the Copernicus Contributing Missions fleet. Credit: ICEYE 2022

What about the methane released?

Although optical satellites can provide us with the radius of the methane bubbling over water, they provide little information on how much methane has been released into the atmosphere.

Monitoring methane over water is extremely difficult as water absorbs most of the sunlight in the shortwave infrared wavelengths used for methane remote sensing. This limits the amount of light reaching the sensor, thus making it extremely difficult to measure methane concentrations over the sea at high latitudes.

GHGSat, a leader in methane emissions monitoring from space and also part of ESA's Third Party Mission Program, tasked its satellites to measure the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline leak with its constellation of high-resolution (around 25 m) satellites. By tasking its satellites to obtain measurements at larger viewing angles, GHGSat were able to target the area where the sun's light reflected the strongest off the sea surface—known as the "glint spot."

On 30 September, the estimated emission rate derived from its first methane concentration measurement was 79,000 kg per hour—making it the largest methane leak ever detected by GHGSat from a single point-source. This rate is extremely high, especially considering its four days following the initial breach, and this is only one of four rupture points in the pipeline.

In response to the gas leak, GHGSat, a leader in methane emissions monitoring from space

 and also part of ESA's Third Party Mission Programme, tasked its satellites to measure the

 pipeline leak with its constellation of high-resolution satellites. By tasking its satellites to 

obtain measurements at larger viewing angles, GHGSat were able to target the area where

 the sun’s light reflected the strongest off the sea surface – known as the ‘glint spot’. 

On 30 September, the estimated emission rate derived from its first methane 

concentration measurement was 79 000 kg per hour – making it the largest methane leak 

ever detected by GHGSat from a single point-source. This rate is extremely high, especially

 considering its four days following the initial breach, and this is only one of four rupture 

points in the pipeline. Credit: GHGSat

GHGSat Director for Europe, Adina Gillespie, said, "Predictably, the media and the world have turned to space to understand the scale of the Nord Stream industrial disaster. While we await further investigation on the cause, GHGSat responded quickly, measuring 79,000 kg per hour of methane coming from the leaks. We will continue tasking GHGSat satellites for the Nord Stream sites until we no longer detect emissions."

Claus Zehner, Copernicus Sentinel-5P, Altius and Flex Missions Manager, mentions: "Besides GHGSat, the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite provided methane concentration measurements emitted by this pipeline leak which highlights the feasibility to use both public funded and commercial satellites in a synergistic way."

Environmental impact

Although closed at the time, the two Nord Stream stems contained enough gas to release 300,000 metric tons of methane—more than twice the amount released by the Aliso Canyon leak in California over several months in 2015–16.

As large as it may be, the Nord Stream release pales in comparison with the 80 million metric tons emitted each year by the oil and gas industry. The latest release is roughly equivalent to one and a half days of global methane emissions.

This map shows the pair of Nord Stream natural gas pipelines that runs under the Baltic 

Sea from Russia to Germany. It comprises the Nord Stream 1 pipeline running from 

Vyborg in northwest Russia, near Finland, and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline running from

 Ust-Luga in northwest Russia near Estonia. Ship traffic in the map can be identified as

 blue and yellow lines and uses data from the European Marine Observation and Data 

Network (EMODnet). Red stars in the image depict the observed leaks as detected by the 

Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission. Click here to observe the area highlighted in images

 captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellites. Credit: ESA

Methane observations from the Sentinel-5P satellite can observe regions with enhanced methane concentrations from strong point sources all over the world. Satellite observations are a powerful tool for improving estimates of emission strength, seeing how they change over time and can also help detect previously unknown emission sources.

Looking ahead, the upcoming atmospheric Copernicus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Monitoring mission (CO2M) will carry a near-infrared spectrometer to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide, but also methane, at a good spatial resolution. This mission will provide the EU with a unique and independent source of information to assess the effectiveness of policy measures, and to track their impact towards decarbonizing Europe and meeting national emission reduction targets.

Yasjka Meijer, ESA's Scientist for Copernicus Atmospheric Missions, commented, "The CO2M Mission will provide global coverage and has a special mode above water to increase observed radiances by looking toward the sunglint spot, however it will be equally limited by clouds."

Nord Stream leaked less methane than feared: atmospheric monitor

Provided by European Space Agency 

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Germany: What poverty looks like in a rich country

Amid soaring inflation, particularly for food and energy, the gap between rich and poor in Germany is widening. Incremental increases to social safety nets will do little to alleviate the problem, experts warn.

The number of people sleeping rough and using food banks has been on the rise across the country

Although Germany is one of the richest countries in the world, signs of increasing poverty are becoming increasingly visible across the country. Homeless people sleeping rough, mothers forgoing meals in order to feed their children, pensioners looking for discarded bottles to trade for the deposit.

According to the Paritätische Wohlfahrtsverband, Germany's umbrella organization for welfare organizations, 13.8 million Germans either live in poverty or are at risk of slipping below the poverty line. The German government also voices its concerns about the growing gap between rich and poor.

The term poverty in this context does not mean that millions of people in Germany are at risk of starving or freezing to death. Instead, it refers to relative poverty, which is measured by the average living conditions of the society in question.

In 2021, Germany was ranked the 20th richest country in the world, measured by GDP per capita. This means that if you add up the value of all the goods and commodities produced in a country and divide the figure by the number of inhabitants, you get $50,700 (€52,200) per person per year in Germany on average. By comparison, that number is $136,700 in Luxembourg, the world's richest country, and $270 in the poorest, Burundi.

Poverty – a question of definition

In Europe, although relatively few people live in absolute poverty, millions are affected by poverty relative to the national average. This means they live with severe material restrictions, and can only make ends meet by restricting their lifestyles in a way that the majority of the population takes for granted.

In the EU, a person is considered to be at risk of poverty or poor if their income is less than 60% of the median in their respective country. If it is less than 50%, it is considered extreme poverty.

For Germany, this means that single people who make less than €1,148 in net income a month are considered below the poverty line. For single parents with one child, that figure is €1,492, and for a household of two parents and two children, €2,410.

Social safety net does little for economic uplift

Germany considers itself to have a robust social safety net. Anyone who cannot find a job, or is unable to work, receives basic social security — a system still known colloquially as Hartz IV. This money is meant to cover basic living expenses such as rent, heating, and water, and well as health insurance.

Under this system, individuals and single parents have only €449 a month for food, clothing, household goods, personal hygiene products, and bills such as the internet, telephone, and electricity. For each child, a parent or a couple receive between €285 and €376, depending on age.

Hartz IV and other public welfare programs have been repeatedly criticized in Germany for covering only the barest of necessities. In response to this, the federal government has proposed raising the standard rate to €503 per month, beginning in 2023, and changing the name to Bürgergeld, or "citizens' money."

However, according to social scientist and poverty researcher Christoph Butterwege, even that will be far from enough. Butterwege told DW that at least €650 is necessary for people to live "with dignity" and, for example, to eat healthy food for every meal.

Under the current system, only €5 per person per day is earmarked for food, leaving poorer households to either buy less food or food of lesser quality.

Pensioners struggling

As inflation skyrockets in Germany, more and more people will find themselves unable to make ends meet without assistance. It is becoming increasingly difficult for many to afford bread, milk, fruit, and vegetables, which are over 12% more expensive than they were a year ago. In 2020, around 1.1 million people made use of food banks. That number is now closer to 2 million.

Poverty is also on the rise amongst the elderly. Even after decades of work, a monthly pension is often not enough to cover all expenses. Women in particular are feeling the strain, as they are more likely to have worked part-time and been paid less. According to a new study from the Bertelsmann Foundation, old-age poverty is expected to affect 20% of Germans by 2036.

People with pension payments below a certain threshold are allowed to claim government assistance. However, many shy away from doing so out of a reluctance to be seen as needy. Studies show that two-thirds of those entitled to claim benefits are ashamed to do so. Older people often prefer to try to work longer, or collect cans and bottles with a refundable deposit from rubbish bins, in order to put a few more euros in their wallets.

The working poor

In Germany, the number of people who cannot live on their income despite having a full-time job is also rising — even with a recent increase in the minimum wage. At €12 per hour, a single person with no children who works 40 hours a week would receive a net income of around €1,480 per month. Although this is nominally above the poverty line, the excess has been eaten up by inflation.

Students are also greatly affected by the situation, especially recipients of federal funding. These students receive a maximum of €934 a month, which includes money for housing and health insurance. This amount puts students well below the poverty line.

The German government plans to spend €200 billion to cushion the impact of high energy prices. However, this will be far from enough to absorb all the additional costs, and economists believe that inflation will remain high. Life in Germany will remain expensive for the foreseeable future, and this will be felt above all by those who have no financial buffers and little savings.