Qatar has delivered the FIFA World Cup, now let it bring peace to Palestine

November 30, 2022

The Al-Jabir Towers in the Lusail City area in the Qatari capital Doha lit up with the Palestinian flag, 10 August 2022 [@PalCyberNews/Twitter]

Yvonne Ridley
November 30, 2022 

The International Federation of Football Associations, FIFA, is a flawed governing body which has chosen to ignore a whole raft of corruption allegations — all denied — that it "sold" the world's greatest-ever sporting event to super rich Qatar. The astonishing allegations were published by the prestigious Insight Team of investigative journalists at the Sunday Times in London.

If the claims are true, then Qatar should not have hosted the ongoing tournament. The evidence has been submitted to a British House of Commons select committee in the wake of a global dirty tricks campaign to sabotage the tiny Gulf State's chances of hosting football's greatest event. Mind-boggling sums of money are said to have been spent to grease the palms of FIFA officials. The rumours will not go away and sports fans find themselves torn between following the epic sports event on TV and boycotting it.

To compound the problems further, the Western media has gone into overdrive to demonise Qatar, with the result that its citizens have been caught up unfairly in the crossfire. What's more, with 17 of the 22 FIFA Executive Committee members who handed the 2022 World Cup to Qatar back in 2010 now banned or indicted over allegations of corruption and wrongdoing, the controversy doesn't look like ending any time soon. FIFA could find itself damaged irreversibly by the ongoing scandals although I'm sure it will get comfort from netting a record £6.3 billion from what has become the most divisive of all football tournaments.

OPINION: The FIFA World Cup in Qatar demonstrates that Palestine is still the issue

If we are to believe just a fraction of what is being claimed, then Qatar has spent billions preparing to host the World Cup while its rivals, including the jealousy-fuelled UAE and Saudi Arabia, have thrown correspondingly eye-watering amounts to sabotage the tournament.

I despair. I truly despair. Not just as a supporter of the Beautiful Game but as a Muslim and a passionate upholder of human rights, aspiring to live in a world in which everyone is treated as an equal. A bit Utopian, perhaps, but a worthy aspiration nonetheless.

All life has been on display in the fabulous arenas built by armies of construction workers whose families across Pakistan, India and Bangladesh are among the poorest in the world and yet take so much pride from the fact that their sons and daughters work in the Gulf States for penurious wages that we would baulk at in the West.

So why, instead of sports washing and investing so much time and energy promoting their soft power to the West, don't the Arab countries take a lesson from the Beautiful Game? The degree of interaction and friendly rivalry displayed by football fans at the tournament in Qatar has been impressive. As is seeing players and supporters from around the world interacting positively on and off the pitch.

If Qatar and other Gulf States really want to impress their allies in the West, the first thing that they should do is put on a united front and cast aside their costly rivalries which have seen the region's royal playboys and petulant princes buying up rights to host the most prestigious sporting events, including Formula 1 racing — which has also had its share of corruption allegations over the years — boxing, golf and football. What the Arab world really needs is someone who can bring an end to the endless wars in the region, a true lightning rod of a leader who can exert an honest, moral code in the cause of world peace.




Arabs snub Israel media at Qatar World Cup – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/Middle East Monitor]

According to Palestinian journalist and political analyst Lamis Andoni, there has never been an Arab leader "as capable of moving the Arab street or shaping Arab political thought" as Gamal Abdel Nasser, the President of Egypt between 1954 and 1970. According to her, Nasser personified anti-colonialist, modern Arab political thought, and that made him one of the most influential world leaders of his time. His advocacy of Arab independence and support for revolutionary movements around the globe placed him and the Arab world at the forefront in representing the emerging countries of the Global South against an imperialist North, nowhere more so than in occupied Palestine.

"Our path to Palestine will not be covered with a red carpet or with yellow sand," said Nasser. "Our path to Palestine will be covered with blood… In order that we may liberate Palestine, the Arab nation must unite, the Arab armies must unite, and a unified plan of action must be established."

Sadly, such titans with worthy places in the history books no longer walk across the Middle East-North Africa region. Instead, we have bombastic rulers who are more obsessed with tall buildings, such as the 1,292ft Iconic Tower in Egypt. Size, it seems, is everything to military dictator Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi who overthrew democratically-elected President Mohamed Morsi in 2013.

Another well-known — and despised — name in the annals of Middle East history is that of Lord Arthur Balfour, the British peer who issued the poisonous Balfour Declaration which can be said to have ruined the lives of millions of Palestinians. Dated 2 November, 1917, it is credited with paving the way for the establishment in Palestine of the Zionist State of Israel built upon terrorism, ethnic cleansing and brutal military occupation.

Do the current crop of Arab leaders not have the imagination to consider how much kudos they would get by being heralded as the one who brings peace to the Middle East? Again, you may say that I'm being Utopian, but it isn't inconceivable if as much time and effort spent on staging the FIFA World Cup 2022 on the sands of tiny Qatar could only be invested in peace and justice for the Palestinians; the rewards and benefits would be immeasurable.

Palestine is not forgotten by the people of the Arab world who almost universally support the legitimate rights to self-determination and return for the Palestinian refugees displaced in the Nakba and their descendants. More than a few Palestinian flags and scarves have been prominent in Qatar held aloft by fans alongside the national flags of Qatar, Tunisia and Morocco. There was even evidence of Palestinian support during the match between England and Wales. Infamously, of course, FIFA banned the Palestinian flag from being on display at Glasgow Celtic's matches – and fined the club for allowing it — so I'm surprised but pleased that the fans in Qatar have got away with showing their love and support for Palestine so easily, as reported in MEMO.

The arrogant FIFA President Gianni Infantino was right to accuse the Western media of "hypocrisy" over a deluge of reports about Qatar's human rights record when he addressed a news conference in Doha in which he spoke passionately in defence of Qatar for more than an hour. Angry that the tournament was in danger of being overshadowed by issues such as the heavily-reported deaths of migrant workers and the treatment of LGBT+ people, the Swiss-born Infantino said that Europe should apologise for acts committed in its own past, rather than focussing on migrant workers' issues in Qatar. He opened by saying: "Today I have strong feelings. Today I feel Qatari, I feel Arab, I feel African, I feel gay, I feel disabled, [and] I feel a migrant worker."

I would have been more impressed if he'd added "I feel Palestinian", but his astonishing display of white privilege did not extend that far. I wonder how much of his monologue was driven by FIFA's insistence that the World Cup was delivered to Qatar in an honest and transparent manner.

Qatar's rulers certainly achieved the impossible by bringing the World Cup to their country against all the odds. So where do they go from here?

READ: 'There's no Israel, only Palestine', Saudi fan tells Israel reporter he is not welcome at Qatar World Cup

There are plenty of people in Tel Aviv prepared to hold out their grubby palms for some "Gulf grease". Incoming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — yes, he's back — has been under investigation for alleged bribery, fraud and breach of trust. He denies all charges, of course, but here's the thing: Because Israel's corruption and hypocrisy is blatant and on display for the whole world to see — and such predilection towards bribery and corruption is, sadly, in the DNA of the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah — I'm convinced that the Qataris and their expert diplomats are more than qualified to persuade their cousins about the futility of war, violence and the ongoing military occupation of Palestine.

The prestige of bringing peace to the Middle East would propel the individual behind such an ambitious project into the stratosphere of global politics, and completely dwarf the magnificent achievement of hosting the World Cup in Qatar. Their name would surely go down in history alongside the likes of Nasser. Following the success of this World Cup, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, is ideally placed to build on it and take the lead in the quest for peace in the Middle East. All else will pale into insignificance, and he would not only win the admiration of the Arab world, but also remove a long-running thorn in the side of his allies in the West.

So while offering congratulations to Qatar for a brilliant World Cup tournament, I call on the Emir to harness its momentum to achieve the seemingly impossible dream of peace in occupied Palestine and the rest of the region. Use Qatar's wealth for long-term benefits across the region instead of soft power and sports washing to please the hypocrites in the West. Qatar has delivered the FIFA World Cup; now let it bring peace to Palestine.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

 

FOUR BRITISH MINISTRIES REFUSE TO SAY IF THEY’VE DISCUSSED ASSANGE WITH U.S.

UK government statements raise suspicions about the degree of coordination with the US administration over the continued incarceration of the WikiLeaks founder.

MATT KENNARD

30 NOVEMBER 2022

Then home secretary Priti Patel, who ordered Assange’s extradition to the US, with Mike Pompeo, who as CIA director from 2017-18 reportedly oversaw “kill or kidnap” plans for Assange in London, 30 June 2022. (Photo: Priti Patel/Twitter)

• Kenny MacAskill, a former Scottish justice secretary and the MP who asked questions in parliament, tells Declassified: “This obfuscation and avoidance is, I believe, part of a pattern of a cover up in alliance with US authorities.”

Four of Britain’s most powerful government ministries are refusing to say if their officials have met with US authorities to discuss the case of Julian Assange. 

The Home Office, Cabinet Office, Foreign Office, and Ministry of Justice all recently failed to tell parliament about any potential contact with their US counterparts on the issue of the WikiLeaks founder. 

The refusals raise further suspicions about the politicisation of Assange’s legal case. Britain is part of the US-dominated “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance and very close to the American government, which is demanding Assange’s extradition.  

The High Court judge who green-lighted Assange’s extradition to the US in December 2021 is a 40-year “good friend” of the foreign minister, Sir Alan Duncan, who orchestrated the Australian journalist’s arrest. 

Assange has been incarcerated in Belmarsh maximum security prison in London for three and a half years. If extradited, he faces a possible 175-year sentence. It would mark the first time Britain has dispatched a journalist and publisher to a third country. 

“The UK government routinely blocks, or obfuscates its answers to, information requests about the Assange case.”

The recent statements also raise the possibility that the departments are misleading parliament, where the questions were asked about discussions between Whitehall officials and US authorities. 

The UK government routinely blocks, or obfuscates its answers to, information requests about the Assange case. 

The Home Office told parliament that it “routinely cooperates with international partners, including the US, on a range of issues involving judicial cooperation.” But it refused to say whether it had discussed Assange with the US, adding, “This specific case is subject to ongoing court proceedings, so we are unable to comment further.”

The Cabinet Office similarly told parliament that its “officials routinely meet with US counterparts to discuss a range of issues, which may, in the past, have included Mr Assange.” It added: “The Cabinet Office does not hold a central record of meetings between officials and their US counterparts.” 

This is an unusual response whose meaning is unclear. The Cabinet Office had seven officials working on the secret police operation to seize Assange from the Ecuadorian embassy, which was conducted in coordination with US authorities. 

‘Not aware’

The Ministry of Justice, meanwhile, claimed information about any conversations with their US counterparts about Assange’s incarceration “could only be obtained at disproportionate cost.” 

It is unclear why the MoJ could not find this information. But the department gave the same response to a question about its involvement in Operation Pelican, the secret operation to seize Assange from the Ecuadorian embassy in London. 

Meanwhile, the Foreign Office refused to say if any of its officials had discussed Assange with their US counterparts. 

Unlike the other government departments, defence minister Andrew Murrison said that his boss, Secretary of State Ben Wallace, “has not held any meetings with US officials to discuss Julian Assange”.

However, he stopped short of saying the same about other Ministry of Defence (MoD) officials. Murrison told parliament only that he personally was not “aware” of any meetings between MoD personnel and their US counterparts on the Assange case. 

This response leaves open the possibility that meetings have taken place about which Murrison, who took on the brief three weeks ago, was not informed. It is unclear why the department could not give a more conclusive answer, as it did for Wallace. 

“It’s disingenuous to suggest that they can’t locate the information except at disproportionate costs.”

‘Cover up’

Kenny MacAskill, the MP who asked the questions, told Declassified: “Getting information on the UK’s role in the persecution of Julian Assange has always been hard and we’re still not getting the full story. Given his significance, and the profile he has, it’s disingenuous to suggest that they can’t locate the information except at disproportionate costs, or other flimsy excuses.”

MacAskill, who was Scottish justice secretary from 2007-14, added: “This obfuscation and avoidance is, I believe, part of a pattern of a cover up in alliance with US authorities. It confirms why Julian Assange’s original actions were necessary in the first place. It’s not just the Pentagon but Whitehall that is denying us the full facts.”

In September 2021, 30 former US officials went on the record to reveal a secret CIA plot to “kill or kidnap” Assange in London. In case of Assange leaving the embassy, the article noted, “US officials asked their British counterparts to do the shooting if gunfire was required, and the British agreed, according to a former senior administration official.” 

These assurances most likely came from the Home Office. However, the Foreign Office and Home Office both said they had had no discussions with their US counterparts concerning the revelations about assassination plans on British soil. 

Innovative start-up scoops top Arctic award

NOVEMBER 30, 2022
By EU Reporter Correspondent


The International Polar Foundation has announced the winner of the first ever 'Laurence Trân Arctic Futures Award'. The winner is Containing Greens AB, a startup created by young entrepreneurs based in Luleå, Sweden. An initiative of the International Polar Foundation and financed by the Trân family, the award provides €7,500 of financial assistance to a fledgling startup or young entrepreneur based in the Arctic to help them further establish their business.

Starting this year, the award will be presented to a different startup or young entrepreneur every autumn at the annual Arctic Futures Symposium, which brings together in Brussels Arctic stakeholders from across the region to discuss topics of importance to them. This year’s event takes place in Brussels on 29-30 November.

“We’re very excited to be the first recipients of this award,” said the company’s CEO, Moa Johansson. “We’re very grateful to be recognised for our work!” Containing Greens AB was chosen because of its innovative approach to using heat generated by data centres (which are popping up all over the Arctic) to grow vegetables destined for local consumption in a part of Northern Sweden that, due to its Arctic climate, is obliged to import about 90% of its produce.
“By using heat from data centres that would otherwise go to waste, as well as a vertical hydroponics system to optimize the use of space and LED lighting to minimise energy consumption, Containing Greens is able to offer a more sustainable alternative to cultivating fresh produce in the High North,” explained Johansson. Containing Greens was selected among 10 candidates proposed by the partners involved in the organisation of the Arctic Futures Symposium, as well as other Arctic stakeholders.

The award will be presented by IPF Managing Director Nicolas Van Hoecke, IPF Board Members Maire-Anne Coninsx and Piet Steel, and Mads Qvist Frederiksen, Director of the Arctic Economic Council, who was involved in the process to select the winner. “Containing Greens is an exciting company because it combines some of the benefits of being in the Arctic (a cold climate region with lots of cheaper, renewable energy, which attracts data centres) while also solving a challenge in the Arctic,” explained Frederiksen.

“They won the prize because they are visionary, ambitious and idealistic - with a starting point from the North - and they provide a much-needed service locally.” Runners up include Siu-Tsiu from Greenland, which contributes to increased employment and sustainability in Greenland on regional and local levels, and Lofoten Seaweed from Norway, which sells a wide range of products based on sustainably harvested seaweed grown in Northern Norway. Johansson will accept the award on behalf of the company during a ceremony to be held at the end of this year’s Arctic Futures Symposium, which will take place at the Residence Palace in Brussels’ EU Quarter.

The symposium will focus on topics such as Arctic governance, energy, innovation and entrepreneurship, and research co-operation. “I look forward to receiving this prize at the Arctic Futures Symposium and taking part in discussions about issues that affect our region,” Johansson said. IPF Founder and President Alain Hubert, who has been a life-long entrepreneur himself, says he is thrilled that the prize will be able to help the next generation of entrepreneurs.

“Thanks to the generosity of the Trân Family, IPF is able to help young entrepreneurs who are committed to finding sustainable solutions to our needs,” remarked Hubert. “Just like the world’s first zero-emission polar research station, Princess Elisabeth Antarctica (which IPF designed and built with the help of its partners and the Belgian State), the Laurence Trân Arctic Futures Award celebrates innovation and entrepreneurship, and also reflects IPF’s core values of taking action to build a more sustainable future. We’re grateful to the Trân Family for supporting young entrepreneurs who share our vision.”

The Tran family says it is glad that the legacy of their daughter will live on in an award that focuses on helping young entrepreneurs bring their innovative ideas to fruition. “We congratulate the winners of the first Laurence Trân Arctic Futures Award for their original idea,” Brigitte Trân-Loustau stated. “We wish them lots of luck with their venture.” The IPF is a public foundation, created in 2002 by Belgian Alain Hubert. Its remit is to support international polar scientific research.

The IPF was also behind the creation of the Princess Elisabeth Antarctica station, which was officially opened in 2009 as the first and, to date, only zero-emission station, with a view to maintaining a Belgian presence in Antarctica and pursuing its ambition in service of citizens facing climate and environmental challenges. Every year, the Princess Elisabeth Antarctica station hosts numerous scientists of all nationalities.

The Laurence Trân Arctic Futures Award is named after the oldest daughter of Mr Trân Van Thinh, Laurence Trân, who died at the age of 26. Laurence was a gifted young woman who was passionate about dance and literature, and was a talented writer. the Trân family decided to join forces with IPF to create the Laurence Trân Arctic Futures Award to support young Arctic entrepreneurs working to find sustainable solutions to the challenges they face in the Arctic.

BIODIVERSITY

Putting Nature on a Quantifiable, Ambitious Path to Recovery

By Joyce Chimbi

A blue sea star (Linckia laevigata) photographed on a largely dead coral reef on the Coral Coast on Fiji's largest island Viti Levu. IPBES estimates that nearly one-third of reefs are threatened with extinction. Credit: Tom Vierus / Climate Visuals

Nairobi, Nov 30 2022 (IPS) - Up to 1 million species are threatened with extinction – many within decades – this includes nearly one-third of reef-forming corals, shark relatives, and marine mammals. Half of agricultural expansion occurs at the expense of forests, and 85% of wetlands that were present at the beginning of the 18^th century had been lost by the year 2000, with the loss of wetlands considered to be happening three times faster, in percentage terms, than forest loss.

Dr Anne Larigauderie, the Executive Secretary of IPBES. Credit: IPBES

Speaking to IPS ahead of UN Biodiversity Conference (COP15) about the urgent need to accelerate measures to stop biodiversity loss, Dr Anne Larigauderie, the Executive Secretary of IPBES, says the loss we hear about is just the tip of the iceberg.

“In 2019, IPBES alerted the world that a million species of plants and animals, out of an estimated total of eight million, now face extinction, many within decades. A third of coral reefs are threatened with extinction. Nature is being deteriorated at a rate and scale that is unprecedented in human history,” she cautions.

She said that the very first reason to conserve and use biodiversity sustainably is because this is the right thing to do from a moral and ethical standpoint, “it should not be to the purview of one species, the human species, to destroy the non-human species on our shared planet. But an important more selfish second reason is that conserving and using biodiversity sustainably are also a matter of ensuring human existence and good quality of life.”

Related IPS Articles

• IPBES, IPCC Joint Winners of the Gulbenkian Prize for Humanity 2022 Dedicated to Climate Change
• Lessons from Niyamgiri Movement’s Success to Protect an Indigenous Sacred Mountain
• Wild Species Central to Human Survival, New IPBES Report Offers Options for their Sustainable Use

Biodiversity is central to human development, and its conservation is critical to people in every corner of the world. Fifty thousand wild species, according to IPBES, meet the needs of billions of people worldwide, providing food, cosmetics, shelter, clothing, medicine, and inspiration.

One in five people rely on wild plants, algae and fungi for their food and income; 2.4 billion rely on fuel wood for cooking, and about 90 percent of the 120 million people working in capture fisheries are supported by small-scale fishing.

This is just part of the material contribution Larigauderie says biodiversity makes to humanity, along with innumerable non-material and regulating contributions such as maintaining the quality of air and soil, the control of emerging diseases and the pollination of crops.

Against this backdrop, Larigauderie says COP 15, which will be held in Montreal, Canada, December 7-19, sets the stage for a new Global Biodiversity Framework, hoped to be a quantifiable and well-resourced plan that is meant to set the path to recovery of all life on Earth and the contributions it provides to people by 2030.

She speaks of the failed Aichi Biodiversity Targets 2011-2020, a strategic plan established to halt the loss of biodiversity and how none of the 20 targets agreed by governments for 2020 were fully achieved at the global level.

“COP15 is an opportunity to raise the bar—a renewal of the momentum of the ambitions for the global community. The most desirable outcome would be an agreement whose targets are supported by sufficient resources and quantified,” she emphasises.

For instance, Aichi target 11 called for the effective protection of 17 percent of land and inland waters and 10 percent of coastal and marine areas; now she says, “the bar is raised significantly in the new draft framework, to 30 percent to be protected by 2030. It is challenging but possible with adequate financial means.”

In addition to the 30%, measures need to be undertaken on the 70% which is not under protection. The text, therefore, includes targets to integrate biodiversity in key economic sectors, such as agriculture, fishing, and economic and financial systems, to decrease their impact on biodiversity.

IPBES research reveals that half of agricultural expansion occurs at the expense of forests. Credit: Joyce Chimbi/IPS

“Agriculture represents one of the major drivers of biodiversity loss because it competes for land with nature, and because it pollutes nature. Governments could help farmers to transition to agroecological practices that are more respectful of nature,” she observes.

Science, she adds, can inform transitions to new sustainable pathways for agriculture, fishing, and food systems, among others, to help conserve and sustainably use biodiversity. Larigauderie stresses the great need to transition into these new pathways for the good of nature and people for present and future generations.

She also emphasises the need to support developing countries that are now expected to develop while protecting their biodiversity, unlike their more developed counterparts, who ensured their development by leveraging their natural resources.

Speaking about the just-concluded UN Climate Change Conference (COP27), Larigauderie said it is critical to recognise and act on the interlinkages between climate change and biodiversity loss. Research has established that climate change is a major driver of biodiversity loss.

“It is very important for the climate change community to take biodiversity into account. The topic of biodiversity is still very low on the agenda of climate change discussions. Yet, we know there can never be long-term solutions for climate change without better treatment of nature,” she says.

“Moreover, some measures proposed to mitigate climate change are harmful to biodiversity, exacerbating ongoing biodiversity crisis and ultimately the climate change crisis.”

She says these measures can include growing biofuel crops, also known as energy crops, such as sugarcane and soybeans, on a large scale to avoid using fossil fuels. Initially, such crops were meant to be grown on marginal lands.

But with very few marginal lands left, pieces of natural ecosystems are being converted into farmland, often for short-term profit, which in turn does further harm to biodiversity.

Another example of a strategy to combat climate change at the expense of biodiversity, she says, can be tree planting schemes. Rather than working to reduce emissions, “people contribute money for tree planting schemes to offset their carbon footprint. People plant trees and continue to do business as usual.”

“Tree planting schemes can also cause social problems where indigenous people are displaced or ecological problems where trees are planted without factoring in ecological principles such as planting trees that require a lot of water in dry areas, causing serious water scarcity.”

Instead, it is important to implement solutions that take both crises into account and combat climate change and biodiversity loss together.

As governments from around the world gather at COP 15, it is a vital chance to step up for nature. Doing so will call on the global community to leverage the established post-2020 biodiversity framework. The outcome could well be a framework to transform society’s relationship with biodiversity, heal the planet and ensure a sustainable existence for humankind.

IPS UN Bureau Report

Between Wishful Thinking and Fatalism: The Role of Elite Divisions in Autocracies

by Adrían del Río 30/11/2022

Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of the National Security Council in February 2022.  imago / Zuma Wire

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s ruling strategy has underlined that economic, military, and political power is in his hands. The most obvious demonstration of Putin’s personalist authoritarian rule has consisted of extended meetings with the Security Council, whose members seem to merely approve the president’s decisions. Meanwhile, key pillars of the regime, such as the siloviki, the Federal Security Service (FSB), oligarchs, the United Russia party, and the National Guard, are caught in the middle of a brutal war, economic pressures, and societal discontent.

Putin’s increasing personalisation of power and the presence of yes-men around him cast the image that regime elites rubber-stamp Putin’s decisions. On the whole, this may be true. However, were Putin to lose the assistance of key elites tomorrow, he would be deprived of the resources, networks, and supporters they command. Such a scenario could entail high political costs for Putin’s government. As research in authoritarian politics shows, no matter how much power is concentrated in a few hands, a regime’s survival depends on keeping regime elites cooperative. That is why the Kremlin is taking harsh measures to avoid elite divisions and regime collapse.

Elite divisions and regime collapse

The scale and brutality of war, economic pressures, and societal discontent can provide fertile ground for divisions in countries like Russia and Belarus. And while some expressions of elite dissent, like the resignation of Putin adviser Anatolii Chubais, have penetrated the fog of uncertainty that surrounds elite dynamics in authoritarian politics, their limited impact on the regime’s breakdown might have turned wishful thinkers into pessimists. Following this narrative can create a sense of inevitability, whereby elite divisions are minor cracks on the road to war.

By dismissing outcomes as foregone conclusions, researchers risk overlooking why some elite divisions can induce political change while others do not. From a comparative perspective, my study on elite defections in autocracies shows that only 40 per cent of major elite divisions from the ruling party force leaders to introduce democratic reforms. These elites are current and former ministers, members of parliament or the party leadership, regional and municipal leaders, and opinion leaders who are not necessarily part of the ruling party. When these elites defect, they expose regime weaknesses and force authoritarian leaders to co-opt such elite threat through democratic reforms instead of resorting to repression.

Many authoritarian governments, nevertheless, prevent elite divisions from going viral or curb their democratising effect. But defusing these threats requires constant management, which allows observers to examine the crucial question of how elite threats are defused and what the associated costs are.

Curbing elite divisions

With Russia’s military failures, Putin has resorted to an ever-expanding menu of authoritarian control to ensure that regime elites follow his command. The strategies draw on various tools for ensuring cadre stability and cracking down on the opposition.

To curb the discontent of some key figures, the president has reappointed wavering elites to prominent positions. After the order to invade Ukraine, the discomfort of the central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, and of the chairman of the state bank VTB, Andrei Kostin, led to their renominations. At the same time, defections of low-ranking personnel in the state propaganda apparatus triggered a wave of resignations by journalists. However, state media managers prevented these resignations from spreading further through co-optation techniques, such as bonuses, internal checks and expulsions.

Meanwhile, protesters face unprecedented repression. And the Kremlin prevented this discontent from affecting the 2022 local and regional election results. Among other things, the authorities did not allow opposition candidates to run and took advantage of the remote electronic voting system to ensure pro-government candidates’ re-election.

Of course, an influential faction of pro-war elites exists. Yet, the above examples clearly show that the Russian authorities are investing significant resources to maintain the loyalty of elites who are central to the regime while fighting a war abroad. But resources to keep elites cooperative are finite. These facts underscore the increasing medium- and long-term costs of governance in times of growing discontent.

More divisions in the near future?

Current explanations suggest that to defect, regime elites must believe that, first, the government and its pillars cannot secure material rewards for them; second, other regime elites will join them or accede to their attempts to express discontent with the regime; and, third, a large share of citizens or existing opposition elites will sympathise with and support the defectors.

Against this backdrop, Putin has eliminated credible challengers, such as Alexei Navalny, and resorted to blunt repression to crack down on societal dissent. Many opposition figures have left the country, and cases of treason have been punished. This discourages regime elites from joining the opposition camp.

Today, the most viable explanation for elite unrest seems to be uncertainty about the distribution of material rewards, which is highly dependent on how the war in Ukraine progresses. For example, Russia’s latest military failures have encouraged ferment at the top. Even among pro-war elites, this issue can serve as an opportunity to climb the political ladder at the expense of other regime elites, increasing dissatisfaction among those who are deprived of political positions or find themselves in the spotlight of blame.

Since Russia’s elites have seen that previous escalation only made things worse, it will be hard to convince regime elites to embrace another round of escalation in exchange for appointments, economic benefits, and other promises of privileges. This can make not only power struggles and divisions in the regime but also the collapse of the regime itself more likely as the war continues. The Russian regime is battling on many fronts at home and abroad.

---

Dr. Adrián del Río is a Humboldt Postdoctoral Fellow and a visiting researcher at ZOiS.

 Protestors in Iranian Kurdistan celebrate US World Cup win

Posted on November 30, 2022 by Editorial Staff in Kurdistan

MAHABAD, Iranian Kurdistan,—

 Protesters in Iranian Kurdistan (Rojhelat) let off fireworks and celebrated after Iran lost to arch foe the United States in the World Cup on Tuesday, according to social media videos.

The Islamic republic has deployed state security forces against what it labels “riots” that broke out after 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Jina Amini died on September 16, 2022, three days after her arrest for allegedly breaching Iran’s dress code for women.

Her hometown of Saqez, as well as other cities in the western province of Kurdistan, have been a flashpoint for protests against the clerical rule.

“Saqez citizens have started to celebrate and use fireworks after America’s first goal against Iran’s football team,” said the London-based Iran Wire website on Twitter.

It shared a video showing fireworks with sounds of cheering in the background. AFP could not immediately verify the content.

Another video by Kurdish activist Kaveh Ghoreishi showed a neighbourhood at night in Sne (Sanandaj) city with sounds of cheering and horns blaring after the United States scored what was the only goal of the match.

Fireworks were also used in Mahabad, another city in Kurdistan, following Iran’s loss, according to videos shared online.

The Norway-based Hengaw human rights group said Iranian motorists celebrated the US victory by honking their horns in Mahabad.

It said fireworks also lit up the sky in Mariwan, another city in Kurdistan province where security forces have waged a deadly crackdown on the protests.

Fireworks and cheering were also heard in Paveh and Sarpol-e Zahab, in Kermanshah province, it added.

The Iranian national team had faced a double whammy of government and public pressure following the protests, with some Iranians going as far as rooting for the opposing teams.

“Who would’ve ever thought I’d jump three meters and celebrate America’s goal!” tweeted Iranian game journalist Saeed Zafarany after the loss.

Podcaster Elahe Khosravi also tweeted: “This is what playing in the middle gets you. They lost to the people, the opponent, and even” the government.

“They lost. Both on and off the pitch,” tweeted Iran-based journalist Amir Ebtehaj.

The US victory sent Iran out of the World Cup and ensured the Islamic republic’s arch enemy a place in the knockout phase of the tournament in Qatar.

“And the Islamic republic football team’s circus is over,” tweeted former journalist Hamid Jafari.

“Now the news of oppression can’t be hidden behind the win or loss of the security forces’ favourite team,” he wrote, referring to videos of the Iranian police celebrating the team’s previous win against Wales while deployed in the streets.

Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights says at least 448 people have been killed by Iran’s security forces in the crackdown on more than two months of protests.

Ever since its emergence in 1979 the Islamic regime imposed discriminatory rules and laws against the Kurds in all social, political and economic fields.

Iran’s Kurdish minority live mainly in the west and north-west of the country. They experience discrimination in the enjoyment of their religious, economic and cultural rights.

Parents are banned from registering their babies with certain Kurdish names, and religious minorities that are mainly or partially Kurdish are targeted by measures designed to stigmatize and isolate them.

Kurds are also discriminated against in their access to employment, adequate housing and political rights, and so suffer entrenched poverty, which has further marginalized them.

Kurdish human rights defenders, community activists, and journalists often face arbitrary arrest and prosecution. Others – including some political activists – suffer torture, grossly unfair trials before Revolutionary Courts and, in some cases, the death penalty.

Estimate to over 12 million Kurds live in Iranian Kurdistan.

Copyright © 2022, respective author or news agency, Ekurd.net | AFP

The Kalmyks dream of 'the Volga Eurasian Union'

by Vladimir Rozanskij

Territorial tensions between the Russian Republic of Kalmykia and the Astrakhan region. More than 4 thousand square kilometres, mainly of steppe, are disputed. Putin's war adventures risk crumbling the Russian Federation: ethnic minorities mobilise.



Moscow (AsiaNews) - In the Russian region of Astrakhan on the Volga, two different separatist movements are clashing, that of the Kalmyks and that of the Nogai, the Caucasian Mongols.

The 'Declaration of Independence of Kalmykia' circulated at the end of October has triggered a wide-ranging debate between the various fringes of these two variants of Mongolian ethnic groups, with different traditions and antiquity, which the Russians have never managed to subdue completely.

The subject of the dispute is precisely the fate of the Volga delta territory of Astrakhan, where the great Russian river expands to generate the Caspian Sea, the most obvious border between Europe and Asia, which the Nogai claim as their original area.

All the southern regions crossed by the Volga have been disputing each other for centuries, and even in Soviet and later times there was no lack of legal disputes between Kalmykia and the Astrakhan region for the control of different areas.

In particular, three parts of the almost uninhabited steppe on the border between various regions, covering a total area of 4,000 square kilometres, are disputed, for which legal proceedings are still pending at the federal level.

The claims of the calmucchi separatists are even more extensive, covering almost the entire Astrakhan region, as many pointed out at the Oratory-Calmuco Congress in Elista in 2021.

Several speakers mentioned on that occasion the large areas of the Dolbansk and Privolshkoe valleys, taken from the calmucchi to facilitate Stalinist deportations, which are important accesses to drinking water for the entire region.

One of the most active members of the calmucchian separatists, Erentsen Doljaev, writes on his Telegram channel to justify the slogan 'The Astrakhan region is Kalmykia!' in every way.

Liberal politician Batyr Boromangaev explains that 'many historical, cultural and even linguistic arguments are needed to understand this claim', referring to the different definitions and interpretations between Russians and local ethnic groups, including the Volga Germans who settled in these areas at various times.

Various territories have been 'lost' or 'taken away', depending on shades of meaning, in times past, distant and recent. The Soviets rearranged these areas often without taking into account the recognitions or distinctions of the tsarist period, to the point of establishing in 1958, after Stalin, the autonomous republic of Kalmykia, deprived of many areas allocated to Astrakhan, Volgograd and other neighbouring regions.

According to Boromangaev, 'it is the federal authorities who must decide on the return of these lands, where our ancestors lived'.

Activists on both sides point out that the Russian Federation is the heir to the Soviet Union, and in fact seems to want to perpetuate its injustices and ethnic repression, a factor that becomes more evident in the face of the war in Ukraine.

The Chaldean politician also points out that the Caspian Consortium's oil pipeline passes through the stolen territories, the proceeds of which all end up in Astrakhan.

Boromangaev states that 'it is now clear that Russia is collapsing, because of Putin and his band of adventurers, and under these conditions the creation of new independent states, rooted in history and with solid economic foundations, is urgent'.

The activists insist on openness to international relations and law, starting with the closest nations and institutions such as Kazakhstan, Ukraine itself and the whole of Europe.

Some hope that this process, by putting their respective zones of competence in order, may even foster a future 'unified nation' of Kalmykia and Astrakhan, perhaps opening up to Tatars, Bashkhiri, Dagestani or others in a new 'Volga Eurasian Union', as some have proposed calling it.

No deal yet with South Korea’s striking truckers as gap remains

Members of the Cargo Truckers Solidarity union attend a protest in front of Hyundai Motor's factory in Ulsan, South Korea, June 10, 2022. (Reuters)

Reuters, Seoul
Published: 30 November ,2022

The South Korean government failed on Wednesday to reach a deal with striking truck drivers, who defied an order to return to work as concerns rose over shortages of petrol and pricier groceries inflicting further economic damage.

Transport ministry representatives said that the government would not change its position. The ruling People Power Party told the union representing the 25,000 striking drivers that they must return to work before lawmakers will deliberate a bill on demands, the union said in a statement.

Neither side set a date for the next negotiation session.

On Tuesday, the government of President Yoon Suk-yeol invoked a “start work” order on 2,500 drivers in the cement industry, requiring them to return to the road or face penalties. The drivers are in their seventh day of a strike over minimum pay rules.

“It is the government and parliament that should return to work... The government and ruling party must immediately withdraw the start-work order, which took the basic rights of cargo workers hostage, and engage in sincere dialogue,” the Cargo Truckers Solidarity Union (CTSU) said.

About 7,000 people rallied in 16 regions across the country for the strike on Wednesday, according to the transport ministry.

The stoppage is the second truckers strike in less than six months, and has caused daily losses of an estimated 300 billion won ($224 million) and disrupting industrial activity in Asia's fourth-largest economy, set to slump next year.

As of early Wednesday, 23 petrol stations had run dry, the industry ministry said. Petrol stations nationwide had an average of about eight days of gasoline supply as they secured stock before the strike, but stations with high turnover in the Seoul metropolitan area are seeing shortages.

Out of 985 construction sites nationwide operated by 46 construction companies that submitted reports on Tuesday, work at 59 percent, or 577 sites, had been suspended because of a lack of supplies, the transport ministry said.

‘Every possible measure’

Transport Minister Won Hee-ryong told reporters on Wednesday that the government would issue start-work orders to more striking truckers in other sectors if necessary.

Union leaders said on Tuesday they would take legal action against such orders.

The government has relayed the start-work order to 350 of the cement transport workers as of Wednesday. If they do not comply, the government can suspend their transport licenses for 30 days, then revoke them.

Drivers may also face up to three years in jail or a fine of up to 30 million won ($22,550).

The government has repeatedly expressed unwillingness to expand a minimum pay system for truckers beyond a further three years, while the union says it should be permanent and wider in scope.

Barbados seeks reparations for slavery from British lawmaker

CGTN

30/11/22

Caribbean island country Barbados is seeking reparations for slavery from a British lawmaker whose ancestor was deeply implicated in the slave trade, a media outlet has reported.

"The government of Barbados is considering plans to make a wealthy Conservative MP the first individual to pay reparations for his ancestor's pivotal role in slavery," British daily newspaper The Guardian reported on Saturday.

Richard Drax, a lawmaker representing the region of South Dorset in Britain, has recently traveled to the island to meet privately with Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, whose government is considering legal action against Drax in case it reaches no agreement with him, according to the report.

"The Drax family pioneered the plantation system in the 17th century and played a major role in the development of sugar and slavery across the Caribbean and the United States," it said.

"If the issue cannot be resolved, we would take legal action in the international courts," said Barbados MP Trevor Prescod, chairman of the Barbados National Task Force on Reparations, part of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) Reparations Commission.

He added that the United Nations has declared slavery, which involved mass kidnappings in Africa to supply plantations in the New World with free labor, a crime against humanity.

Caricom countries "have been campaigning for the payment of reparations by former colonial powers and institutions which profited from slavery. This is the first time a family has been singled out," said the report.

LABOUR OUT TORIES THE TORY'S

UK Labour Leader Says There Are No Chances of Return of Free Movement With EU

November 29, 2022

© Rawpixelimages | Dreamstime.com

In spite of having supported the idea of keeping the freedom of movement between the United Kingdom and the 27 European Union countries three years ago, the leader of the Labour Party of the UK, Keir Starmer, now claims that the return of the policy is a “red line” for the party he leads.

In an interview for the Mail on Sunday, the Labour leader also ruled out the possibility of introducing a “Swiss-style” deal with the EU, through which the UK would have access to the single market in exchange for opening its borders for EU citizens to move to its territory under facilitated rules.

“A Swiss deal simply wouldn’t work for Britain. We’ll have a stronger trading relationship, and we’ll reduce red tape for British business – but freedom of movement is a red line for me. It was part of the deal of being in the EU, but since we left, I’ve been clear it won’t come back under my government,” Starmer told the Mail.

According to him, the Brexit deal should now be left behind as it is, and Britain should instead “face the future”.

In January 2020, Starmer, who at the time was running to become the leader of the UK Labour Party, had promised that he would manage to keep the freedom of movement with the EU as a part of the Brexit deal.

“I want families to be able to live together, whether that’s in Europe or here … We have to make the case for freedom of movement,” he had said at the time.

Defending Starmer’s new stance regarding the freedom of movement, his spokesperson said that Starmer had supported the freedom of movement during the negotiations, but now that the talks are over, it is completely understandable to leave that issue behind.

The UK signed into law the Immigration Act in November 2020, which later, on December 31, at 11 pm, ended the freedom of movement in the UK for all EU citizens without registered residence.

Soon after, the UK announced a new points-based immigration system for skilled workers from third countries in a bid to fill in the gaps created by the absence of the EU labour force in the UK.

Regarding the Swiss-style trade deal with the EU, over a week ago, UK PM Rishi Sunak has ruled out the chances of such a thing happening, too. Switzerland is also a non-EU country but is part of the borderless Schengen Area, alongside Norway, which is also a non-EU country.