The far-right’s pro-Russia posture endangers the nation and the world

Opinion by Douglas E. Schoen, opinion contributor • The Hill

THE AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM MYTH

Throughout the 20th century, American leadership was paramount in pushing back against authoritarian and revisionist dictators who sought to undermine global peace and quash human rights.

Both Democrats and Republicans alike recognized that the United States could ill afford to take a passive role on the world stage, as problems in Europe or Asia would eventually make their way to our shores. It was an accepted principle that, when democracy was being threatened abroad, America would come to its defense.

However, this ideal has come under fire since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Isolationist tendencies have become increasingly prominent on the political right, and Republicans have been leading the charge to curtail U.S. support for Ukraine, a sovereign and democratic nation that Russian President Vladimir Putin has brutalized and tried to lay claim to.

In the early days of the war, only far-right nationalists such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) were doing Putin’s bidding by lobbying for a reduction in American support for Ukraine.

But as with other fringe views, this position quickly infiltrated the mainstream, and dozens of high-profile GOP officials have adopted a similarly pro-Russian posture. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) even called the U.S.’s current support level for Ukraine a “blank check.”

Congressional Republicans have attempted to frame their positions as ‘realism’ — arguing that the U.S. cannot afford to continue supporting Ukraine as inflation weighs on American families, and should not be risking a nuclear war with Russia over a country that is thousands of miles away.

To be fair, the left wing of the Democratic party has also loudly expressed their opposition to continued aid to Ukraine in a now-retracted letter to the Biden administration, painting the conflict as a result of NATO and American pro-war policies. Not only does this view put the far-left in league with the far-right, but it is also a toxic and misguided view that forgives Putin while assigning total blame to the United States.

Yet, this is a strategically flawed proposition, a political miscalculation and a direct endangerment of our national security.

Those who rely on a cost-benefit argument to suggest that the United States should reduce our support for Ukraine fail to recognize that America has committed just a fraction of our annual defense spending — a sum equivalent to roughly 6 percent — to aid the brave Ukrainian people and erode Russia’s military might. Even more critically, we have done so with zero American casualties.

The right’s isolationist argument is also a loser politically, as the majority (57 percent) of Americans surveyed in a November Beacon Research poll taken on behalf of the Ronald Reagan Foundation, along with 51 percent of Republicans (shown in crosstabs), believe the U.S. should continue standing with Ukraine in order to protect Europe and prevent future Russian aggression. Likewise, nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Americans, including the majority (56 percent) of Republicans (shown in crosstabs), feel that the U.S. should either maintain or increase the amount of aid we’re currently providing to Ukraine.

There should be no debate over whether a Putin-controlled Russia is a threat to the United States. Vladimir Putin is a dictator and a war criminal whose military has interfered in our own elections, and those on the political right — including but not limited to the former president — who kowtow to him are actively putting the free world at risk.

If the U.S. significantly curtails aid to Ukraine, other Western nations will follow suit. This will only embolden Putin to continue his expansionist efforts, perhaps even into NATO territory, thus increasing the risk of a direct war between the United States and Russia.

Philosopher George Santayana’s warning, “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” is pertinent. We know that Putin is guided by an imperialist and fascist agenda, and by a desire to restore Soviet-era dominance over its neighbors. History has also shown us that, when a despot is willing to back his agenda with military force, the results are devasting if they are not confronted.

And make no mistake, supporting Ukraine is not only a matter of countering Vladimir Putin. It is just as much about sending a loud message to other autocratic leaders — particularly in Beijing and Tehran — that the United States will not stand by as democracy is actively threatened abroad.

About 40 years ago, former Republican president Ronald Reagan branded the Soviet Union an “evil empire,” and rallied the free world around bringing it down. We must not overlook the fact that the same corrupt, authoritarian and despotic values that characterized the Soviet Union in the Reagan era are embodied by Vladimir Putin.

Unfortunately, many on the political right seem to have forgotten history — or worse, are choosing to ignore it.

To note, there are several prominent Republicans who have rightfully denounced and called out isolationists in the party. Former Vice President Mike Pence gave a speech to this effect recently, noting that “appeasement has never worked, ever, in history.”

“There can be no room in the conservative movement for apologists to [Vladimir] Putin. There is only room in this movement for champions of freedom,” Pence said.

McCarthy and other incoming Republican leaders in Congress have an obligation to push back against extremism in their own ranks, however and wherever it presents itself, especially in the form of pro-Russian tendencies.

If not, the fringe right will continue dragging the Republican Party further out of the political mainstream and will bring the free world down with it.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”

US Government-sponsored home equity theft robs the elderly and poor of millions of dollars

Opinion by Christina Martin, Opinion Contributor •

If you owe someone $14, should they be entitled to take a $100 bill out of your wallet and keep the change? Obviously not. Yet in a dozen states and the nation’s capital, the government collects delinquent real estate taxes that way.


Government-sponsored home equity theft robs the elderly and poor of millions of dollars© Provided by The Hill

Take, for example, 93-year-old Geraldine Tyler. When she failed to pay approximately $2,300 in property taxes on her former Minneapolis condominium, Hennepin County foreclosed and sold the property for $40,000. Rather than refund Ms. Tyler the $25,000 left over after paying all her delinquent taxes, penalties, interest and related costs, the government kept every penny.

The same thing happened to Kevin Fair in Nebraska after he fell behind on his property taxes when he quit his job to care for his dying wife, Terry. In Mr. Fair’s case, Scotts Bluff County sold his property tax debt to a private company, Continental Resources, which allowed the investor to collect Mr. Fair’s taxes plus costs and 14 percent interest. He later got notice of a 90-day deadline to pay the debt, which had grown to $5,268, and clear his property. He was unable to get a loan and the county treasurer deeded his home to the investor, leaving Mr. Fair with nothing, even though the home was worth approximately 11 times more than his debt.

Unfortunately, these stories are not rare. A new report by Pacific Legal Foundation, called “End Home Equity Theft,” reveals that from 2014 until 2021, more than 7,900 homes were taken as payment for property tax debts worth just 14 percent of the home’s value. Governments and private investors have pocketed hundreds of millions of dollars in hard-earned home equity at the expense of often elderly and struggling owners such as Ms. Tyler and Mr. Fair.

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg, since the study could examine only a sampling of homes taken for delinquent taxes and does not include any of the many businesses, farms and vacant properties that likewise have been seized at a windfall to the government or its cronies. This grotesque practice of taking more than what is owed has been found unconstitutional by many courts, including the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit and the state supreme courts in Michigan, New Hampshire, Vermont, Virginia and Mississippi.

But surprisingly, some courts still disagree. Earlier this year, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit rejected Ms. Tyler’s constitutional claims. The court did not dispute that Ms. Tyler had a deeply rooted property right in her former home’s equity, which has roots in early American law and as far back as Magna Carta. Instead, the court held that the state of Minnesota had legalized taking Ms. Tyler’s home equity and the government, therefore, took nothing from her. Along that vein, the Nebraska Supreme Court rejected Mr. Fair’s constitutional claims because it was not convinced that he had a property right in his equity since the state statute does not acknowledge it.

Ms. Tyler and Mr. Fair are asking the U.S. Supreme Court to hear their cases.

In the meantime, countless families are in danger of losing their homes and life savings to the government now. But it doesn’t have to be that way.

Although America is deeply divided on many hot-button issues, Americans of every political persuasion overwhelmingly agree that legalized home equity theft is abhorrent and unnecessary. For example, groups ranging from AARP, ACLU Nebraska, Cato, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Legal Services of the Hudson Valley, Manhattan Institute, and National Taxpayer Union all have spoken out against such laws, which particularly harm the elderly, sick and poor. Indeed, in the past few years, Montana, North Dakota and Wisconsin have passed popular, bipartisan laws that end some or all home equity theft in those states.

In contrast, the parties on record supporting home equity theft laws represent municipalities or private investors who have pocketed windfalls under such systems.

But once greedy calculations are removed, there are no good arguments in favor of home equity theft.

Most states — red, blue, and purple — collect property taxes without swiping hard-earned savings built up in homes. For example, Florida counties sell property tax liens that typically impose lower interest rates on debtors than states such as Minnesota and Nebraska, which confiscate home equity. Those lower rates make it easier for debtors to save their homes from foreclosure. If Florida debtors still fail to pay, they don’t lose everything. Instead, the property is sold, the debts are paid with the proceeds, and the remainder is returned to the former owner.

That means there is no justification for terrible tax foreclosure laws in Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, D.C., Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and South Dakota.

Americans value property rights and loathe theft. It’s time that every state in the union ends home equity theft once and for all.

Christina Martin is a senior attorney at Pacific Legal Foundation, a nonprofit legal organization that defends Americans’ liberties when threatened by government overreach and abuse. PLF represents Geraldine Tyler and Kevin Fair free of charge. Follow her on Twitter @CMM123.

CANADA

Proposed bill would force internet providers to disclose download speeds during peak periods

Story by Ryan Tumilty • 

OTTAWA — Canadians could soon get a clearer picture of the gap between the promise and the reality of their internet service, through a private member’s bill moving through the House of Common with all-party support.


Cables connected to an internet server supply an office Thursday, September 10, 2020 in Belleville, Ont.© Provided by National Post

Conservative MP Dan Mazier introduced the bill earlier this year, and this past week it passed second reading in a unanimous vote. The bill would require that instead of identifying only their maximum download and upload speeds, internet service providers would have to provide their average speeds, specifically during peak usage periods.

“Being from rural Canada, I totally understand the whole concept of not being connected. And I know Canadians are generally frustrated anytime you talk about the kind of service they are getting,” Mazier said in an interview with the National Post about his legislation.

Most internet companies describe the speed of their service in advertisements as “up to” a certain download speed. Mazier said that maximum speed is often much higher than what the companies deliver in the evenings when Canadians are home streaming video or browsing the internet.
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“It is eliminating that theoretical or ‘up to speed’ so right now they can sell you that kind of service and this criteria, when it works for them, not when it works for the user,” he said.

If Mazier’s bill passes, the CRTC would be required to hold public hearings about the new guidelines and then swiftly implement a standard, forcing internet companies to make the new information public. Mazier said the CRTC already defines peak time as between 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. and could use that standard for the speed issue as well.

The Canadian Internet Registration Authority, which oversees the .ca domain name, did a survey of Canadians in 2021 and found that only a third of people felt they were getting the speed their service provided advertised all or even most of the time. That number was highest in Quebec, where it was about 50 per cent and lowest in Alberta, where just 23 per cent felt they consistently got the service they paid for.

The survey also found 25 per cent were not aware if they were getting the speed that had been advertised to them.

Canada also has among the highest prices in the world for broadband internet service. A survey the federal government does every two years found in 2021 Canadians paid more than almost every nation in the G7 as well as Australia, where prices can be half what Canadians pay in a given month.

Australia has passed similar legislation to Mazier’s bill and has even gone so far as to fine companies for making misleading statements about the capabilities of their service.

Mazier said the past two years with the pandemic have seen many people relying on internet services more often and Canadians deserve to know what they’re paying for, something the companies seem unwilling to do on their own.

“What I can’t get over is, there are still companies that have not adjusted and are not telling consumers what they’re actually offering for speed, so this needs to be legislated, he said.

Mazier said he was pleased to get all-party support for his legislation.

Many private member’s bills never get through the House of Commons, and should Mazier’s bill clear that hurdle it will also have to get past the Senate. He said he believes the other parties realize the potential for the bill and he is hopeful it will move quickly through the rest of the legislative process.

“This was a really good opportunity for all parliamentarians to stand up for consumers.”

Twitter: RyanTumilty

Email: rtumilty@postmedia.com

Proximity To Fracking Sites Linked To Spike In Childhood Leukemia

Story by Maggie Clancy • Nov 28

Nearly 20 years ago, the United States started using hydraulic fracturing, commonly known as fracking, to secure oil and gas. And while gas companies have repeatedly claimed that the process is safe, new evidence about the health of children living near these fracking sites suggests the opposite.


Provided by Scary Mommy

A novel study from Yale School of Public Health has found that children in Pennsylvania living near unconventional oil and gas (UOG) sites at birth were two to three times more likely to be diagnosed with leukemia between the ages of 2 and 7 than their peers who didn’t live near the fracking sites.

The study included 2,500 Pennsylvania children, including 51 children who lived within 2,000 meters of a gas well. Of the participants, 405 in total had been diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia, also known as ALL. Of the 51 living within the 2,000-meter radius of a gas well, 14 had been diagnosed with ALL, or roughly 27.5% of the children living close to the gas wells.

ALL is a type of cancer of the blood and bone marrow, and it is the most common type of cancer affecting children. While the long-term survival rate is high, children who survive this type of cancer could be at a higher risk of health issues down the line, including developmental and psychological challenges.

“Unconventional oil and gas development can both use and release chemicals that have been linked to cancer, so the potential for children living near UOG to be exposed to these chemical carcinogens is a major public health concern,” said the study’s senior author, Nicole Deziel, associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health

The study specifically looked at how drinking water contaminated by fracking residuals can impact health.

“Previous health studies have found links between proximity to oil and gas drilling and various children’s health outcomes,” said Deziel. “This study is among the few to focus on drinking water specifically and the first to apply a novel metric designed to capture potential exposure through this pathway.”

The safety of fracking has been repeatedly called out in previous studies as well. Back in April, nonprofit Physicians for Social Responsibility and Concerned Health Professionals of New York compiled 2,239 peer-reviewed papers that found evidence of serious harm to not only people living close to the sites, but fracking site workers and wildlife as well. One of the more recent studies linked living near fracking wells to earlier deaths for people over the age of 65.

Fracking has been linked to health issues including prenatal harm, respiratory issues, various cancers, heart disease, mental health concerns, and premature death. Air and water pollution created by fracking has also created a host of health issues for those closest to the sites.

Yale’s study findings suggest that UOG operations need to be at least two kilometers or further away from residential areas and drinking water wells to prevent clusters of cancer to pop up in towns with fracking. As it stands, fracking sites tend to have setback distances as little as 150 feet, according to the study. Pennsylvania currently requires UOG sites to have at least a 500-foot setback distance.

The mounting evidence is damning. “There are enough studies now that show that fracking threatens the health of workers and communities and threatens the mental and physical health of people who work nearby and children who go to school nearby,” Dr. Ned Ketyer, president of Physicians for Social Responsibility Pennsylvania, told Mother Jones. “There’s enough of those associations now between fracking and bad health outcomes that should be informing regulators, politicians, and industry that there needs to be a better way.”

Fact check: Flat Earth claim misunderstands Earth's motion, shape, gravity
Story by Kate S. Petersen, USA TODAY • 

The claim: Earth isn't curved or moving; air pressure couldn't exist 'without a container'

Some social media users are sharing a meme that claims to present evidence that Earth is flat instead of spherical.

"Earth can’t be a spinning space ball if there is no curve, motion or gas pressure without a container," reads the caption on a Sept. 27 Instagram post that garnered more than 900 likes in two months.

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On a picture of the Earth titled "Space Ball Earth Top Failures," the post lists a series of statements that purportedly support the long-debunked theory that Earth is flat.

These statements include claims that Earth's curve and movement can't be measured. The meme also states that gas pressure – ostensibly referring to Earth's atmospheric pressure – is not possible without a "container."

But these claims are wrong. Earth's curve and movement are detectable through various means, according to researchers. And Earth's atmospheric pressure is caused by gravity.

USA TODAY reached out to the Instagram user who shared the post for comment.

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Earth is a globe shape that curves

Earth's curve is directly observable, but because of Earth's size, observers have to get about 40 miles above the surface to see it, Jason Steffen, a mathematician and physicist at the University of Nevada, previously told USA TODAY.

"You have to be about a percent or so higher than the radius of the surface of the Earth (to see the curve)," he said. "40 miles is 1% of the curvature of the radius of the Earth."

Humans and spacecraft that have reached these heights have photographically documented Earth's curve.

Earth's curve can also be observed during a lunar eclipse, Steffen said in a Q&A published on the University of Nevada website. Earth's shadow appears round on the moon regardless of the time of year, time of night, or direction the shadow moves.

"The only object that casts a circular shadow no matter how you shine a light across it is a sphere," he said. "Any other shape would not be able to cast a round shadow under this variety of circumstances."

In addition to being directly observable, Earth's curve is predicted by the laws that govern gravitational force. Self-gravity pulls all of Earth's mass towards its center, ultimately forming a spherical shape.

Fact check: Soda experiment does not disprove existence of gas planets

Earth moves through space and rotates

Contrary to the post's claims, Earth moves as it orbits the sun, and, on a larger scale, the center of the Milky Way galaxy, Rebekah Dawson, an astronomer at Pennsylvania State University, told USA TODAY in an email.

"One way we can detect Earth's motion around the sun is through parallax," she said. "As our position changes, the apparent position of nearby stars relative to more distant ones changes as well. We can also (observe) the apparent motion of different stars to work out how we're orbiting around the center of the galaxy."

Earth rotates in addition to moving through space. And this movement is evidenced by the behavior of Earth's atmosphere.

"If the Earth did not rotate and remained stationary, the atmosphere would circulate between the poles – high-pressure areas – and the equator – a low-pressure area – in a simple back-and-forth pattern," reads the NOAA website. "But because the Earth rotates, circulating air is deflected. Instead of circulating in a straight pattern, the air deflects toward the right in the Northern Hemisphere and toward the left in the Southern Hemisphere, resulting in curved paths."

This process helps drive the formation of Earth's jet streams – east-west flowing bands of wind in the upper atmosphere, according to the National Weather Service.

Fact check: Ample evidence the Earth is round and rotating, contrary to persistent social media claims

Air pressure is because of gravity

The Instagram post also states that gas pressure can't exist without a "container."

However, "gas pressure doesn't need a container to be generated," Elise Knittle, an Earth and planetary sciences professor at University of California, Santa Cruz, told USA TODAY in an email.

She said atmospheric pressure on Earth "is generated by moving gas molecules subject to the Earth's gravity," which draws the molecules downward toward Earth.

One readily observable clue that Earth's air pressure is because of gravity rather than pressurization in a container: air pressure on Earth decreases as elevation increases.

"As you go up higher into the atmosphere, there are fewer molecules and the mass of the atmosphere above you is less," Knittle said. "The number of air molecules ... is reduced and the atmospheric pressure goes down."

This kind of difference doesn't form in a pressurized container, she said. Instead, the pressure is the same throughout.

Fact check: A compass is oriented to the Earth's magnetic field lines, doesn't prove flat earth

Our rating: False

Based on our research, we rate FALSE the claim that Earth isn't curved or moving, and air pressure couldn't exist on Earth "without a container." Ample evidence, including photos, atmospheric processes, lunar eclipses and the movement of stars, demonstrates Earth's curve and motion. Gas pressure in Earth's atmosphere is caused by gravity pulling matter toward the planet's core, so there's no need for a "container."

Our fact-check sources:
Rebekah Dawson, Nov. 8-14, Email exchange with USA TODAY
Elise Knittle, Nov. 9-12, Email exchange with USA TODAY
Jason Steffen, Nov. 10, Phone interview with USA TODAY
Olga Kalashnikova, Nov. 15, Email exchange with USA TODAY
National Geographic, accessed Nov. 7, Atmospheric Pressure
West Texas A&M University, Sept. 14, 2015, Why don't I feel the miles of air above me that are crushing me down?
Space. com, Jan. 21, How fast is the Earth moving?
Space.com, Jan. 11, What Is Parallax?
Scientific American, March 27, 2020, Flat Earthers: What They Believe and Why
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, accessed Nov. 8, Change in the atmosphere with altitude
USA TODAY, Nov. 17, Fact check: Ample evidence the Earth is round and rotating, contrary to persistent social media claims
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, March 11, 2019, Round Earth Clues: How Science Proves that our Home is a Globe
Space. com, April 22, 2013, Earth From Space: Classic NASA Photos
NASA, accessed Nov. 18, Why are planets round?
National Weather Service, accessed Nov. 18, The jet stream
NOAA, accessed Nov. 21, The Coriolis Effect
National Weather Service, accessed Nov. 21, Global Circulations

Thank you for supporting our journalism. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here.

Our fact-check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook.


1 of 18 Photos in Gallery©Manish Swarup, AP

A bird flies past a partial solar eclipse in New Delhi, Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2022. The partial solar eclipse or Surya Grahan on Oct. 25 marks the last solar eclipse of the year.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fact check: Flat Earth claim misunderstands Earth's motion, shape, gravity

More Chinese enterprises embrace environmental, social and governance strategy

Story by Ren Yaoting,Wu Maohui,unreguser • Nov 28

This photo taken on Nov. 28, 2022 shows the main forum of the 2022 Boao Forum For Entrepreneurs held in Boao, south China's Hainan Province. (Xinhua/Pu Xiaoxu)

 XINHUA

HAIKOU, Nov. 29 (Xinhua) -- More Chinese enterprises are embracing the concept of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) as they continue to improve their sustainable development capabilities and respond to the country's goal of reducing carbon emissions.

First coined in 2005, ESG provides a view of a company and its long-term value potential and relevance to its stakeholders. An ESG rating measures environmental and social impact and the effectiveness of corporate governance in managing them. Organizations create ESG strategies to help them act on and measure what is mutually good for profits, people, and the planet.

At the 2022 Boao Forum for Entrepreneurs held in south China's Hainan Province, Chinese entrepreneurs and experts shared their experience in implementing ESG strategy.

Wang Xiaogang, CEO of THNORLAND, a dairy company based in northwest China's Qinghai Province, said the company has been practicing an ESG development philosophy since its inception.

"We conduct carbon monitoring throughout the industrial chain and have built a data-based system, and strive to build ecological organic farming and animal husbandry," said Wang, emphasizing the importance of green development to environmental protection of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Zhou You, vice president of auto information provider Autohome Inc., said the firm is now adapting to ESG regulatory standards and will publish its first ESG rating assessment next year.

"The automobile industry has a large carbon emission, and many automobile enterprises seek technological innovation and product transformation in pursuit of the goal of reducing carbon emission," said Zhou, promising that the company will make contributions to the green transformation of the auto industry.

King's Luck is a liquor company based in east China's Jiangsu. Besides making wine, it has established a grain planting base so as to help rural revitalization.

In this way, the company realizes the integration of creating economic value and social value. In the first three quarters of 2022, the firm's revenue reached 6.51 billion yuan (about 904.1 million U.S. dollars), a year-on-year increase of nearly 22.2 percent.

Standards must be formulated to better regulate the operation of enterprises. Thus, a set of organizational standards for an enterprise ESG evaluation system was published in Beijing this year, serving as an essential infrastructure for the ESG practice of enterprises.

Led by China Economic Information Service, Capital University of Economics and Business, and China Enterprise Reform and Development Society, the formulation of the standards is jointly accomplished by over 90 enterprises, institutions, and organizations.

According to the data released on the forum, more than 1,400 listed companies in China disclosed independent social responsibility reports or ESG reports in 2021.

"The active practice of ESG by Chinese enterprises can enhance their vitality, innovation, and anti-risk capability," said Li Hua, an official with China Enterprise Reform and Development Society. ■

U$A

The looming debt ceiling fight could be the messiest since 2011, Goldman Sachs says
Story by Matt Egan • 2h ago


Republicans and Democrats are likely to clash next year over the debt ceiling, a fight that could rock financial markets, unnerve consumers and threaten the economy with the specter of a calamitous default.

Jeffries: Appears to be 'right thing' to raise debt limit now
Duration 1:44 View on Watch

The looming debt limit battle in Washington could spark the most uncertainty since the 2011 brinksmanship that cost America its perfect AAA credit score and caused chaos on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs warned clients in a note Monday.

“To raise the debt limit next year, bipartisan support will be necessary but hard to achieve,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in the report.
What’s this all about?

The “debt ceiling” is exactly what it sounds like — the maximum that the federal government is allowed to borrow, after Congress set a level more than a century ago to curtail government borrowing. But when push comes to shove, Congress has in the past raised the debt limit to avoid a default on US debt that economists have warned would be “financial Armageddon.” That’s what lawmakers did in late 2021 following the last standoff over the debt ceiling.

Goldman Sachs notes there have been “more false alarms over the last decade than truly close calls.”

Washington also came together just last week to reach an agreement that averted what would have been a catastrophic rail strike.

But Republicans have signaled a brewing fight over the debt ceiling.

House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, who is vying to become House Speaker, told CNN before the midterm election that Republicans will demand spending cuts in exchange for lifting the debt ceiling. Republican Senator John Thune of South Dakota told Bloomberg last week the debt ceiling could be a way to push through budget cuts.

‘Another disruptive debate’

That sets the stage for a dangerous fiscal showdown that risks a default on US debt, or at least a close call.

“We remain concerned that the governing dynamic will lead to fiscal fights that could include debt ceiling brinksmanship in mid-2023,” Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, wrote in a note to clients this weekend.

Goldman Sachs noted that the political environment next year will have “echoes of 1995 and 2011” — the two most tense standoffs over the debt limit in recent history. The report said most, though not all, of those standoffs occurred when Republicans controlled at least one chamber of Congress during a Democratic presidency.

“Next year will provide the political and fiscal conditions for another disruptive debate, and razor-thin majorities in both chambers and elevated inflation could further increase uncertainty,” Goldman Sachs wrote in the report. “While hard to predict, it seems unlikely that next year’s debt limit deadline will create quite as much uncertainty as the 2011 experience, but there is a good chance it will come closer than at any point since then.”

Markets and Main Street would be hit

A close call could set off turmoil on Wall Street that causes losses in the retirement accounts and investment portfolios of everyday Americans.

“It seems likely that uncertainty over the debt limit in 2023 could lead to substantial volatility in financial markets,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote, noting that the 2011 standoff helped cause a deep selloff in the US stock market.

Beyond markets, Goldman Sachs said a failure to raise the debt limit in time “would pose greater risk to government spending and ultimately to economic growth than it would to Treasury securities themselves.”

That’s because in order to avoid a default on US debt, the federal government would shift money around to keep paying interest on Treasuries. That would create a massive hole that would need to be filled by delaying a host of other payments — including ones that millions of Americans count on such as paychecks to federal employees, benefits to veterans and Social Security payments.

“A failure to make timely payments would likely hit consumer confidence hard,” Goldman Sachs wrote.

When will a default become a real risk?

The good news is Washington appears to have plenty of time to reach a compromise on the debt ceiling before things get dicey.

Economists at Jefferies said in a recent research report that default risk is unlikely to emerge until “at least” the end of September of next year.

Even though federal debt is likely to reach the statutory limit in the next few weeks, Goldman Sachs said the Treasury Department should be able to borrow as usual until late February or early March. At that point, the government could tap a stockpile of $500 billion in cash to finance the deficit until August.

Beyond that, there is a lot of uncertainty over precisely when default risk would emerge due to a number of moving pieces, including student debt payments and tax revenue.

“Funds could run dry as soon as July and as late as October,” Goldman Sachs said.

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PRICE GOUGING
Canadian families will pay $1,065 more for groceries in 2023, report says

HALIFAX — Canadians won't escape food inflation any time soon.


Canadian families will pay $1,065 more for groceries in 2023, report says© Provided by The Canadian Press

Food prices in Canada will continue to escalate in the new year, with grocery costs forecast to rise up to seven per cent in 2023, new research predicts.

For a family of four, the total annual grocery bill is expected to be $16,288 — $1,065 more than it was this year, the 13th edition of Canada's Food Price Report released Monday said.

A single woman in her 40s — the average age in Canada — will pay about $3,740 for groceries next year while a single man the same age would pay $4,168, according to the report and Statistics Canada.

Food inflation is set to remain stubbornly high in the first half of 2023 before it starts to ease, said Sylvain Charlebois, lead author of the report and Dalhousie University professor of food distribution and policy.

"When you look at the current food inflation cycle we're in right now, we're probably in the seventh-inning stretch," he said in an interview. "The first part of 2023 will remain challenging ... but we're starting to see the end of this."

Multiple factors could influence food prices next year, including climate change, geopolitical conflicts, rising energy costs and the lingering effects of COVID-19, the report said.

Currency fluctuations could also play a role in food prices. A weaker Canadian dollar could make importing goods like lettuce more expensive, for example.

Earlier this year the loonie was worth more than 80 cents US, but it then dropped to a low of 72.17 cents US in October amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. It has hovered near the 74 cent mark in recent weeks, ending Friday at 74.25 cents US.

"The produce section is going to be the wild card," Charlebois said. "Currency is one of the key things that could throw things off early in the winter and that's why produce is the highest category."

Vegetables could see the biggest price spikes, with estimates pegging cost increases will rise as high as eight per cent, the report said.

In addition to currency risks, much of the produce sold in Canada comes from the United States, which has been struggling with extremely dry conditions.

"The western U.S., particularly California, has seen strong El Niño weather patterns and droughts and bacterial contaminations, and that's impacted our fruit and vegetable suppliers and prices," said Simon Somogyi, campus lead at the University of Guelph and professor at the Gordon S. Lang School of Business and Economics.

"The drought is making the production of lettuce more expensive," he said. "It's reducing the crop size but it's also causing bacterial contamination, which is lessening the supply in the marketplace."

Prices in other key food categories like meat, dairy and bakery are predicted to soar up to seven per cent, the researchers found.

The Canadian Dairy Commission has approved a farm gate milk price increase of about 2.2 per cent, or just under two cents per litre, for Feb. 1, 2023.

"The increase for February is reasonable but it comes after the unprecedented increases in 2022, which are continuing to work their way through the supply chain," Charlebois said of the two price hikes of nearly 11 per cent combined in 2022.

Meanwhile, seafood is expected to increase up to six per cent, while fruit could increase up to five per cent, the report said.

Restaurant costs are expected to increase four to six per cent, less than supermarket prices, the report said.

Rising prices will push food security and affordability even further out of reach of Canadians a year after food bank use reached a record high, the report said.

The increasing reliance on food banks is expected to continue, with 20 per cent of Canadians reporting they will likely turn to community organizations in 2023 for help feeding their families, a survey included in the report found.

Use of weekly flyers, coupons, bulk buying and food rescuing apps also ticked up this year and is expected to continue growing in 2023, the report said.

"We're in the era now of the smart shopper," said Somogyi, also the Arrell Chair in the Business of Food.

"For certain generations, it's the first time that they've had to make a list, not impulse buy, read the weekly flyers, use coupons, buy in volume and freeze what they don't use."

Last year's report predicted food prices would increase five to seven per cent in 2022 — the biggest jump ever predicted by the annual food price report.

Food costs actually far exceeded that forecast. Grocery prices were up 11 per cent in October compared with a year before while overall food costs were up 10.1 per cent, according to Statistics Canada.

"We were called alarmists," Charlebois said of the prediction that food prices could rise seven per cent in 2022. Critics called the report an "exaggeration," he said.

"You're always one crisis away from throwing everything out the window," Charlebois said. "We didn't predict the war in Ukraine, and that really affected markets."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 5, 2022.

Brett Bundale, The Canadian Press

REAL ENEMY OF THE'PEOPLE'

Liz Cheney seizes on Trump’s call to terminate Constitution

Story by Zach Schonfeld • Yesterday 

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) on Sunday condemned former President Trump as “an enemy of the Constitution” after he called for terminating the document over unfounded claims of mass electoral fraud in the 2020 presidential election.


Liz Cheney seizes on Trump’s call to terminate Constitution© Provided by The Hill

“Donald Trump believes we should terminate ‘all rules, regulations and articles, even those found in the Constitution’ to overturn the 2020 election,” Cheney wrote on Twitter. “That was his view on 1/6 and remains his view today. No honest person can now deny that Trump is an enemy of the Constitution.”

Cheney, a leading Trump critic within the GOP who serves as vice chairwoman of the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, was one of many figures to condemn Trump’s Truth Social post on Saturday arguing the Constitution should be terminated over his long-standing election grievances.

“A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution. Our great ‘Founders’ did not want, and would not condone, False & Fraudulent Elections!” Trump wrote.

The White House and some in the GOP joined Cheney’s condemnations, including Rep. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.), the other Republican on the Jan. 6 panel.

“With the former President calling to throw aside the constitution, not a single conservative can legitimately support him, and not a single supporter can be called a conservative. This is insane. Trump hates the constitution,” Kinzinger tweeted.

The former president’s post came one day after new Twitter CEO Elon Musk promoted the release of the “Twitter Files,” which contained emails showing the social media company’s employees discussing their response to the New York Post’s October 2020 story about files purportedly from the laptop of President Biden’s son Hunter Biden.

The emails show some confusion and disagreement among the employees as the company suppressed the story, but Twitter’s decision to limit the story’s reach was previously known, and then-CEO Jack Dorsey has since publicly called it a “total mistake.”

There were widespread concerns about the authenticity of the laptop’s contents at the time, although major news organizations months later verified some of the emails, leading to criticism and allegations of partisan censorship from the GOP.

Gen Z wants security more than a dream job. A look at their finances shows why.

Story by jzinkula@insider.com (Jacob Zinkula) •

Gen Z is looking to avoid the layoffs some of the tech industry is experiencing. AndreyPopov/Getty Images© AndreyPopov/Getty Images

A recession could be on the horizon in 2023, and some companies are already laying off workers.

It has some Gen Zers focusing on job security over the pursuit of their dream job.

Unemployment has had an outsized impact on young Americans during past recessions.

With a recession looming next year, some Gen Zers are postponing the search for their dream job. Instead, they're working to ensure they have a job at all if an economic downturn comes.

A look at their finances and economic projections show why.

US credit card debt rose the most in 20 years over the last quarter, per the New York Fed, and while all age groups saw upticks in missed payments, the biggest increase came from 18 to 29-year-olds.

"At this point, I can barely scrape together enough to stay afloat," one Gen Zer who is over $20,000 in debt previously told Insider.

At the same time, experts continue to forecast a recession next year, and there have been high-profile layoffs at tech and media companies like Twitter, Meta, and CNN. The environment has some Gen Zers prioritizing job security.

"Lately, with a lot of people being let go from their jobs, it's opened my eyes to look for a job where I can feel more stable," Giana Gaitan-Naranjo, 21, a senior at San Francisco State University, told The New York Times.

In June, the networking platform Handshake asked roughly 1,400 recent college graduates and current seniors what they were prioritizing in their job searches. 74% said job stability, compared to the less than half that said working for a known company brand or in a fast growing industry were very important to them.

Nearly half of the respondents said they were planning to apply for more jobs than they had previously planned. Over a third said they were expanding their searches to more industries, while 18% said they planned to start their job search sooner.

"I feel uneasy as to how many jobs will actually be available when I graduate," one respondent told Handshake.

Gen Z may have the most to fear from unemployment

At the same time this survey was taking place, Millennials were on TikTok telling Gen Z that job stability is overrated, and that they should instead spend their twenties figuring out what they're passionate about.

"Stability in your 20s is an overrated thing, as long as you get your basic needs met," TikTok user Su Hyun Kim said in a video.

But it's easier to not worry about job security when one's finances are strong and the risk of unemployment is low. It may be wise for Gen Z in particular to prioritize job security, as young Americans are among the individuals hardest hit by economic downturns.

During 2020, for instance, Gen Z's unemployment rate rose from 8.0% in February 2020 to 26.9% in April, while Gen X's only rose from 2.9% to 11.7%.

When young people remain unemployed for long stretches, it can have long-term financial consequences. The Census Bureau found the Great Recession cost the average millennial roughly 13% of their potential earnings between 2005 and 2017.

For now, however, the US unemployment rate remains near the lowest level in 50 years, and there are still over 10 million job openings. If security is what Gen Zers value, then many should be well positioned — at least in the short term — to retain their jobs.

Although the unemployment rate is expected to tick up next year, some Gen Zers may still have the opportunity to sift through job openings and look for positions with the best job security — so they can be prepared for when a downturn does come.