Around 50% of soil-available phosphorus comes from mineral fertilisers in agricultural systems worldwide

Peer-Reviewed Publication

INRAE - NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND ENVIRONMENT

 

IMAGE: CROP FIELD IN PICARDIE (FRANCE) view more 

CREDIT: INRAE - JEAN WEBER

Plants need phosphorus to grow. Farmers’ use of mineral phosphorus fertilisers has greatly increased soil phosphorus fertility and, consequently, crop yields. However, these fertilisers are made from rock phosphate, a non-renewable resource that is patchily distributed across the Earth. Researchers at INRAE and Bordeaux Sciences Agro have modelled, for each country, the fraction of soil-available phosphorus that is derived from the use of mineral phosphorus fertilizer. They also examined changes in these figures over time, starting in the mid 20th century. Published in Nature Geoscience, their results show that in 2017, around 50% of the world soil-available phosphorus in agricultural systems comes from the use of mineral phosphorus fertilisers. This global data however hides dramatic differences among regions. While Western Europe, North America, and Asia are all situated above 60%, South America and Africa are around 40% and 30%, respectively. This finding underscores that agricultural systems are extremely dependent on mineral phosphorus fertilisers. The study highlights the importance of accelerating the agroecological transition in the Global North, whose countries must preserve their acquired soil fertility and improve the flow of agricultural and urban effluents to the soil. Remaining phosphate rock resources should be given to the Global South, especially to African countries, whose soils remain phosphorus deficient, a reality that limits agricultural production.

Phosphorus occurs naturally in soils, but its levels and relative availability vary by global region and soil type. Since the 1950s, the use of mineral phosphorus fertilisers has boosted soil-available phosphorus and, thus, agricultural yields. However, these fertilisers are created via the mining and chemical processing of rock phosphate, a non-renewable natural resource that is unevenly distributed across the globe. For example, 70% of rock phosphate is in Morocco, while there is almost none to be found in Europe. Furthermore, the transformation of rock phosphate releases large amounts of pollution. Researchers agree that, at current rates of extraction, we will likely reach peak phosphorus (the point of maximum resource production) by 2050. Such will probably lead to an increase in fertiliser prices and greater geopolitical tensions. Against this backdrop, it is essential to clarify how past and present patterns of mineral phosphorus fertiliser usage have affected the dependence of current agricultural systems on this finite resource.

Scientists from INRAE and Bordeaux Sciences Agro therefore decided to quantify the percentage of soil-available phosphorus that originates from mineral fertilisers, defined as the soil’s anthropogenic signature of phosphorus. They developed a model to simulate country-specific patterns of soil-available phosphorus in agricultural systems worldwide for the period from 1950 to 2017. This approach utilised data on stocks of soil-available phosphorus, crop yields, mineral fertiliser use, livestock numbers, and international trade. The calculations were based on a country’s average agricultural soil, which was defined by each country’s use of grasslands and crops within agricultural systems with varying levels of intensification.

Soil fertility is highly dependent on synthetic mineral fertilisers

Globally, the anthropogenic signature of phosphorus is around 47% (±8%), which suggests that, at present, approximately half of soil phosphorus fertility is attributable to the use of mineral fertilisers. This result reflects the intensification of agricultural systems that has taken place worldwide. Indeed, many countries have relied heavily on synthetic fertilisers since the 1950s.

This work highlights the strong spatial and temporal disparities in how dependent different countries are on mineral phosphorus fertilisers. Anthropogenic signatures of phosphorus have risen sharply in Western Europe and North America since the 1950s, and they exceeded 60% in 2017. Since the 1970s, signatures in Western European countries have plateaued, thanks to the decreased use of mineral fertilisers. Livestock manure has helped partially meet phosphorus needs. In Asia, signatures began increasing in the 1970s, which is when countries in that region experienced the Green Revolution, fuelled by massive quantities of mineral fertilisers. The signatures of Asian countries have now caught up and surpassed those of Western European countries. This growth continues, driven by a weighty perpetual reliance on mineral phosphorus fertilisers. In 2017, signatures in South America and Eastern Europe were lower, around 40%. Finally, countries in Africa and Oceania had signatures below 30%, reflecting their more limited use of mineral fertilisers historically.

Towards a more equitable and sustainable management of global rock phosphate resources

This work highlights that many countries in the world are extremely reliant on mineral phosphorus fertilisers to ensure levels of agricultural productivity. The results raise concerns that agricultural systems may struggle to end their dependence on this non-renewable resource. They also underscore deep inequities in the current distribution of rock phosphate. Countries that adopted intensive agricultural systems very early on, such as those in Western Europe and North America, greatly increased their levels of soil-available phosphorus via the wholesale use of mineral phosphorus fertilisers. These countries must now maintain and enhance this acquired fertility using various strategies, including improved resource recycling. They must also speed up their agroecological transition by implementing a range of mixed crop-livestock farming systems, reducing soil erosion, and utilising urban effluent. In contrast, African countries have historically had little access to mineral phosphorus fertilisers even though their soils are often highly deficient in phosphorus, which limits food and agricultural production. Remaining rock phosphate resources must be fairly distributed, prioritising countries with the greatest need so as to promote global food security.

Alternatives to mineral phosphorus fertilisers Mineral phosphorus fertilisers have boosted agricultural yields and promoted food security in numerous countries. Unfortunately, they are derived from non-renewable supplies of rock phosphate. In addition, rock phosphate mining and processing causes environmental harm. Certain countries, such as France, have accumulated large quantities of soil-available phosphorus. They must now strive to greatly temper their use of mineral phosphorus fertilisers. The reality is that yields will not necessarily suffer from the absence of fertilisers because crops can draw upon stocks of soil-available phosphorus, depending on soil type. Notably, within crop rotations, species such as white lupin or buckwheat can release phosphorus that is chemically bound to the soil, increasing its availability for other crops. Furthermore, these countries must urgently work to preserve the soil phosphorus fertility they have acquired. Notably, they can limit soil erosion, by using cover crops or reincorporating hedgerows into agricultural landscapes, and improve the recycling of organic matter, including livestock effluent and sludge from sewage treatment plants.

 

---

JOURNAL

Nature Geoscience

DOI

10.1038/s41561-022-01092-0 

ARTICLE TITLE

Half of global agricultural soil phosphorus fertility derived from anthropogenic sources

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

5-Jan-2023

Entire color palette of inexpensive fluorescent dyes

Peer-Reviewed Publication

ETH ZURICH

 

IMAGE: POLYMER FLUORESCENT INKS CAN NOW ALSO BE PRODUCED IN RED. view more 

CREDIT: ETH ZURICH

Novel fluorescent dyes developed by ETH researchers are relatively simple and inexpensive to produce. The dyes are polymers with a modular structure. They consist of a different number of subunits depending on their colour. The subunits used are chemically simple molecules that are either commercially available or can be produced by chemists in one reaction step.

Now, scientists led by Yinyin Bao have succeeded in using the new approach to produce a wide range of colours, including red, which was previously difficult to produce. Bao is a senior scientist in the groups of ETH professors Jean-​Christophe Leroux and Chih-​Jen Shih. Together with scientists from RMIT University in Melbourne, the team developed artificial intelligence algorithms that help decide which molecule subunits are needed in what numbers for a particular colour.

Potential applications for the fluorescent inks include UV-​activated security inks for banknotes, certificates, passports or for encrypting information. The method can also be used to produce inks that change colour after prolonged UV illumination. In their new work, which the scientists published in the scientific journal Chem, they demonstrated this using the example of two initially red fluorescent inks, one of which turns blue after several minutes of UV illumination, while the other remains red. This property can also be used for security features.

Other applications for the new fluorescent molecules are in solar power plants, or they could one day be combined with semiconducting molecules to produce low-​cost organic light-​emitting diodes (OLEDs) for displays.

---

JOURNAL

Chem

DOI

10.1016/j.chempr.2022.12.003 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Machine Learning-Assisted Exploration of a Versatile Polymer Platform with Charge Transfer-Dependent Full-Color Emission

Think before you design your brand's logo: How marketers can capitalize on the power of perception to influence beliefs about brand performance

News from the Journal of Marketing

Peer-Reviewed Publication

AMERICAN MARKETING ASSOCIATION

Researchers from Oklahoma State University and University of Florida published a new Journal of Marketing article explaining how marketers can capitalize on the power of perception through the structure of visual communications to influence beliefs about brand performance, which ultimately influences product interest and choice.

The study, forthcoming in the Journal of Marketing, is titled “Marketing by Design: The Influence of Perceptual Structure on Brand Performance” and is authored by Felipe M. Affonso and Chris Janiszewski.

Brands are constantly updating their visual identities. Intel recently went through its third visual brand identity refresh in half a century and its new logo has iconic symmetry, balance, and proportion. The underlying geometry is apparent in the design. Could visual design characteristics influence consumers’ perceptions about the brand?

This new study finds that a sense of order and structure can reinforce claims about a brand’s utilitarian benefits. Intel’s visual marketing not only communicates the company’s vision and positioning, but also reinforces them through specific design properties. The researchers identify a variety of design properties that can influence perceptions of structure in visual elements, including symmetry, balance, geometry, regularity, proximity, and similarity.

It is well known that customers are subliminally influenced by visual marketing tools such as logos, packages, and retail displays; they use them as a basis to make judgments about brands delivering on their promise. We find that for brands that promise utilitarian (functional, instrumental, and useful) benefits, consumers are encouraged by visual designs perceived as more orderly and structured. This suggests marketers can capitalize on the power of perception to influence beliefs about brand performance, which ultimately influences product interest and choice.

Utilitarian vs. Hedonic Brands

At the other end of the spectrum are brands, such as Pepsi, which promise benefits related to enjoyment, pleasure, and experiences—collectively referred to as hedonic benefits. In this case, marketers can benefit from using visual design properties that convey lack of structure. The visual elements of Pepsi’s marketing communications are relatively more asymmetric, free-flowing, unbalanced, and irregular. The research suggests that these characteristics reinforce consumers’ beliefs about the performance of hedonic-positioned brands.

As Affonso explains, “We find that visual design characteristics that encourage structured perceptions of visual communications, such as high proximity, high similarity, and symmetry, can reinforce beliefs about utilitarian-positioned brand performance. On the other hand, visual design characteristics that encourage unstructured perceptions of visual communications, such as low proximity, low similarity, and asymmetry, can reinforce beliefs about hedonic-positioned brand performance. These reinforcements occur because structure and lack of structure have specific associations that consumers use to make inferences.”

These suggestions are supported by a series of carefully designed experiments, both in the lab and in the field, and an analysis of industry data. First, in a large-scale field experiment when a perfume was positioned as utilitarian (“Long-lasting. Great for work and everyday occasions”), consumers were more likely to click on the advertisement depicting the perfume with a visual design perceived as more structured than its unstructured counterpart. When the perfume was positioned as hedonic (“Delightful. Great for special and fun occasions”), consumers were more likely to click on the advertisement depicting the perfume with a visual design perceived as more unstructured than its structured counterpart.

Second, when consumers made choices considering functional goals (such as choosing a restaurant that provides a fast and reliable experience), they were more likely to pick a restaurant perceived as structured. However, when the choice involved hedonic goals (such as choosing a restaurant providing an entertaining and exciting experience) they were likely to pick the option perceived as unstructured. Importantly, the research finds that these effects, across a variety of visual marketing communications, induce a structured versus unstructured perception in different ways.

Finally, for brands perceived as more utilitarian, structured perceptions are associated with greater financial brand valuation and customer-based brand equity than unstructured perceptions. The opposite is true for brands perceived as more hedonic.

“Our research offers actionable insights for marketers and visual design specialists working with design, advertising, social media communications, visual merchandising, and the appearance of retail environments. Specifically, the findings suggest that perceptual structure can be used as an efficient marketing communication tool. And it can encourage consumers at the point of purchase, being a relatively costless way to reinforce brand positioning,” says Janiszewski.

Lessons for Chief Sales Officers

• Brands may want to consider using design elements that encourage structured/unstructured perceptions of logos, products, product packaging, and retail store design if their brand is primarily associated with utilitarian/hedonic benefits.
• The implications extend to many other visual marketing communications, including print advertisements, website layouts, and app user interfaces. Marketers can take advantage of our findings and anticipate the consequences of key visual design decisions.
• Brands could benefit in the long term from shifting the structure of their visual marketing communications to align with their brand positioning.

Full article and author contact information available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/00222429221142281

About the Journal of Marketing 

The Journal of Marketing develops and disseminates knowledge about real-world marketing questions useful to scholars, educators, managers, policy makers, consumers, and other societal stakeholders around the world. Published by the American Marketing Association since its founding in 1936, JM has played a significant role in shaping the content and boundaries of the marketing discipline. Shrihari (Hari) Sridhar (Joe Foster ’56 Chair in Business Leadership, Professor of Marketing at Mays Business School, Texas A&M University) serves as the current Editor in Chief.
https://www.ama.org/jm

About the American Marketing Association (AMA) 

As the largest chapter-based marketing association in the world, the AMA is trusted by marketing and sales professionals to help them discover what is coming next in the industry. The AMA has a community of local chapters in more than 70 cities and 350 college campuses throughout North America. The AMA is home to award-winning content, PCM® professional certification, premiere academic journals, and industry-leading training events and conferences.
https://www.ama.org

---

JOURNAL

Journal of Marketing

DOI

10.1177/00222429221142281 

ARTICLE TITLE

Marketing by design: The influence of perceptual structure on brand performance

STUDY: Eye-tracking marketing research boosts public transportation agency’s ridership

Changes improved effectiveness of ad campaign and helped drive a significant increase in ride voucher redemptions

Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA

 

IMAGE: THE DATA SHOWED PARTICIPANTS TENDED TO FOCUS ON FACES, THE LEFT SIDE OF THE AD AND MESSAGES SURROUNDED BY WHITE SPACE. AREAS OF THE AD LEAST NOTICED WERE ON THE BOTTOM AND ESPECIALLY ON THE BOTTOM RIGHT. view more 

CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA

TAMPA, Fla. (Jan. 4, 2023) – Eye-tracking technology and social marketing have helped drive an increase in ridership for one of Florida’s largest passenger rail services.

A study by an interdisciplinary research team at the University of South Florida boosted a Florida Department of Transportation program that promotes alternatives to commuters who drive alone by improving the impact of its marketing campaigns.

Key outcomes included:

• A 24 percent improvement in the effectiveness of marketing materials after revisions suggested by the research were made.
• A significant increase in the number of ride vouchers redeemed for free Uber service to and from rail stations thanks to a redesigned flyer incorporating eye-tracking feedback.

The team monitored the eye movements of 60 participants as they studied various ads and videos, such as the Tampa Bay Area Regional Transit Authority’s promotional video of a new commuter app and a Delaware Commute Solutions flyer. Eye-tracking software generated heat maps and metrics of areas of interest, revealing clear patterns of focus.

The data showed participants tended to focus on faces, the left side of the ad and messages surrounded by white space. Areas of the ad least noticed were on the bottom and especially on the bottom right. Study participants also answered a series of questions to provide a measure of the materials’ perceived effectiveness in persuading drivers to alter their commuting behavior.

Based on the findings, the team generated guidelines to revise the marketing materials and improve their effectiveness. When they retested the materials, they noted improvement in comprehension, attractiveness, acceptability, relevancy and persuasiveness.

The results were even more impressive for the South Florida Regional Transportation Authority’s campaign to encourage Tri-Rail ridership by offering free Uber ride vouchers to and from its rail stations, located between Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, to resolve first and last mile connection issues. The initial flyer resulted in only a third of people who downloaded a voucher using it. After learning about USF’s new guidelines and making adjustments, a majority of vouchers were redeemed.

As part of a collaboration with the Florida Department of Transportation, researchers from the USF Center for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR), a College of Public Health Social Marketing expert and the Muma College of Business Center for Marketing and Sales Innovation tested a variety of materials from Commuter Assistance Programs across the country to develop data-driven marketing guidelines to improve the effectiveness of commuter marketing efforts.

“It leveraged our skills,” said Robert Hammond, director of the Center for Marketing and Sales Innovation in the Muma College of Business. “This project provided us with an exciting opportunity to collaborate, be a resource for our community partners and leverage our Customer Experience Lab’s unique assets to provide novel insights.”

Jeremy Mullings, project director for the South Florida Commuter Services, shared the results during a recent webinar hosted by Best Workplaces for Commuters.

“We applied the lessons learned from the CUTR effort and we redesigned our flyer,” Mullings said. “What we found was by making these changes, it was a huge success and a lot of that we attribute to the creatives for this flyer because we basically use this design for everything.”

Lead investigator Mahmooda Khaliq Pasha, associate professor of social marketing in the USF College of Public Health, said the guidelines and outcomes will inform new projects coming down the pipeline.

“This work will be instrumental in allowing us to develop communication materials and strategies that are personalized, targeted and relevant for our target populations,” Pasha said.

The USF team hopes the results will help additional transportation programs make further improvements and believes the findings could be widely applicable to marketing materials in a variety of industries.

“Professionals don’t necessarily need to do the neuromarketing test to find out what could be improved with their materials,” said Phil Winters, director of Transportation Demand Management program at CUTR. “The value lies in the best practices we found – those can be used to improve marketing materials without testing.”

Rethink Commmute Fixation Replay.mp4 (VIDEO)

Eye-tracking software shows how the eyes move around a marketing image.

About the University of South Florida

The University of South Florida, a high-impact global research university dedicated to student success, generates an annual economic impact of more than $6 billion. Over the past 10 years, no other public university in the country has risen faster in U.S. News and World Report’s national university rankings than USF. Serving more than 50,000 students on campuses in Tampa, St. Petersburg and Sarasota-Manatee, USF is designated as a Preeminent State Research University by the Florida Board of Governors, placing it in the most elite category among the state’s 12 public universities. USF has earned widespread national recognition for its success graduating under-represented minority and limited-income students at rates equal to or higher than white and higher income students. USF is a member of the American Athletic Conference. Learn more at www.usf.edu

---

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

Using intercropping systems for sustainable global agricultural production

Peer-Reviewed Publication

INRAE - NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND ENVIRONMENT

 

IMAGE: AERIAL VIEW OF CROPS NEAR TO CHALON-SUR-SAÔNE (REGION OF BOURGOGNE - FRANCE) view more 

CREDIT: INRAE - CHRISTIAN SLAGMULDER

With the increasing food demands of a growing world population, it is essential to increase agricultural production while reducing its environmental footprint. Crop diversification techniques have often been proposed as agroecological solutions to achieve this goal. Among them, intercropping – the growth of several crop species in the same fields - seems to be particularly promising. This practice has always been uncommon in Europe and, although it has traditionally been used in countries of the Global South, it is currently declining due to urbanization and migration of rural populations. In a new study, a group of scientists performed a quantitative assessment of the performance of intercropping systems by analysing the results of 226 agricultural experiments. This international team comprised researchers from INRAE, Wageningen University (Netherlands), China Agricultural University (Beijing, China), and Inner Mongolia Agricultural University (Hohhot, China). Their findings were published on 3 January in PNAS.

Intercropping – the growth of several crop species in the same field - is in decline in many countries of the global South, where this practice was once widespread. Moreover, this strategy has never been common in Western countries, where the norm is to grow one species at a time.

Global conclusions drawn from global data

To objectively assess the performance of intercropping systems under modern conditions, a team of French, Dutch, and Chinese researchers performed a detailed analysis of a vast database, which brought together information from 226 agricultural experiments conducted worldwide. Based on a meta-analysis, the scientists were able to compare the productivity of monocultures and different intercropping configurations.

After analysing grain yield data, the researchers used data on grain calories and protein concentrations to assess the relevance of intercropping for food and feed production. They were then able to quantify the differences between intercropping and monocropping, and identify crop combinations and management practices that result in higher grain, calorie and protein yields with intercropping than with monocropping.

Combining several crop species leads to equal or higher productivity on 19% less land

This research showed that intercropping resulted in mean protein levels that were similar to and often higher than those obtained with monocultures.

It also demonstrated that intercropping systems were more productive overall. To generate the same amount of grain, 19% less land was needed with two-species intercropping combinations than with monocultures of each species. Compared to the most productive species, grain yield and caloric content were 4% lower, on average, under intercropping versus monoculture conditions. In contrast, total protein levels are equivalent for both cropping systems, and are even higher for intercropping in 47% of cases, especially for moderately fertilized corn-legume combinations.

By reducing the need for farmland and fertilizers, intercropping can help sustainably meet increasing demands for feed and food as the world’s population expands. Looking to the future, this study and its quantitative results can guide agricultural policies at the global scale.

---

JOURNAL

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2201886120 

ARTICLE TITLE

The productive performance of intercropping

Why technology alone can’t solve the digital divide

Study of a refugee community shows impact of other factors

Peer-Reviewed Publication

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY

COLUMBUS, Ohio – For some communities, the digital divide remains even after they have access to computers and fast internet, new research shows.

A study of the Bhutanese refugee community in Columbus found that even though more than 95% of the population had access to the internet, very few were using it to connect with local resources and online news.

And the study, which was done during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic stay-at-home orders in Ohio, found that nearly three-quarters of respondents never used the internet for telehealth services.

The results showed that the digital divide must be seen as more than just a technological problem, said Jeffrey Cohen, lead author of the study and professor of anthropology at The Ohio State University.

“We can’t just give people access to the internet and say the problem is solved,” Cohen said.

“We found that there are social, cultural and environmental reasons that may prevent some communities from getting all the value they could out of internet access.”

The study was published recently in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.

For the study, researchers worked closely with members of the Bhutanese Community of Central Ohio, a nonprofit organization helping resettled Bhutanese refugees in the Columbus area.

The study included a community survey of 493 respondents, some who were surveyed online and many more who were interviewed in person.

While many of respondents lived in poverty – more than half had annual incomes below $35,000 – 95.4% said they had access to the internet.

More than 9 out of 10 of those surveyed said access to digital technology was important, very important or extremely important to them.

But most had a very limited view of how they could use the internet.

“For just about everyone we interviewed, the internet was how you connected to your family, through apps like Facebook or WhatsApp,” Cohen said. “For many, that was nearly the only thing they used the internet for.”

Findings revealed 82% connected to friends and family, and 68% used social media. All other uses were under 31%.

Not surprisingly, older people, the less educated and those with poor English skills were less likely than others to use the internet.

A common issue was that many refugees – especially the older and less educated – were just not comfortable online, the study found.

“Of course, that is not just an issue with the Bhutanese. Many people in our country see the internet as just a place where their children or grandchildren play games, or attend classes,” he said.

“They don’t see it as a place where they can access their health care or find resources to help them in their daily lives.”

Language was another issue. While there was a local program to translate some important resources from English to Nepali, the most common language spoken by Bhutanese refugees, many respondents remarked that the translations were “mostly gibberish” and nearly impossible to understand, Cohen said.

Even for those who spoke English, fewer than 25% described themselves as excellent speakers.

“People had access to the internet, and this information was available to them, but they couldn’t use it.  That is not a technological issue, but it is part of the digital divide,” he said.

Because the study was done during the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the main areas of focus in the study was access to health care and information on COVID-19.

Even though telehealth services were one of the main ways to access health care during the pandemic, about 73% said they never used the internet for that purpose.

And COVID-19 was not the only health issue facing many of the those surveyed.

“The Bhutanese community is at high risk for cardiometabolic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes, and about 72% of those surveyed had one or more indications of these conditions,” Cohen said.

“If they aren’t taking advantage of telehealth to consult with doctors, this could be putting them at greater risk.”

Cohen said one key lesson from the study is that researchers must engage and partner with communities to ensure that proposed solutions to problems, including the digital divide, respond to local needs.

The study was funded in part by the National Institutes of Health and the Ohio State Social Justice Program.

Co-authors were Arati Maleku and Shambika Raut of the College of Social Work at Ohio State; Sudarshan Pyakurel of the Bhutanese Community of Central Ohio; Taku Suzuki of Denison University; and Francisco Alejandro Montiel Ishino of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences at NIH.

---

JOURNAL

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

DOI

10.3390/ijerph192416854 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Exploring the digital divide among the Bhutanese refugee community during COVID-19: Engaged research in action

New approach to epidemic modeling could speed up pandemic simulations

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SANTA FE INSTITUTE

 

IMAGE: SPARSIFICATION OF THE U.S. MOBILITY NETWORK. ON THE LEFT IS THE ORIGINAL NETWORK WITH ABOUT 26 MILLION EDGES. ON THE RIGHT, A SPARSIFIED NETWORK BASED ON EFFECTIVE RESISTANCE SAMPLING. view more 

CREDIT: MERCIER ET AL.

Simulations that help determine how a large-scale pandemic will spread can take weeks or even months to run. A recent study in PLOS Computational Biology offers a new approach to epidemic modeling that could drastically speed up the process. 

The study uses sparsification, a method from graph theory and computer science, to identify which links in a network are the most important for the spread of disease.

By focusing on critical links, the authors found they could reduce the computation time for simulating the spread of diseases through highly complex social networks by 90% or more. 

“Epidemic simulations require substantial computational resources and time to run, which means your results might be outdated by the time you are ready to publish,” says lead author Alexander Mercier, a former Undergraduate Research Fellow at the Santa Fe Institute and now a Ph.D. student at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “Our research could ultimately enable us to use more complex models and larger data sets while still acting on a reasonable timescale when simulating the spread of pandemics such as COVID-19.”

For the study, Mercier, with SFI researchers Samuel Scarpino and Cristopher Moore, used data from the U.S. Census Bureau to develop a mobility network describing how people across the country commute. 

Then, they applied several different sparsification methods to see if they could reduce the network’s density while retaining the overall dynamics of a disease spreading across the network. 

The most successful sparsification technique they found was effective resistance. This technique comes from computer science and is based on the total resistance between two endpoints in an electrical circuit. In the new study, effective resistance works by prioritizing the edges, or links, between nodes in the mobility network that are the most likely avenues of disease transmission while ignoring links that can be easily bypassed by alternate paths.

“It’s common in the life sciences to naively ignore low-weight links in a network, assuming that they have a small probability of spreading a disease,” says Scarpino. “But as in the catchphrase ‘the strength of weak ties,’ even a low-weight link can be structurally important in an epidemic — for instance, if it connects two distant regions or distinct communities.”

Using their effective resistance sparsification approach, the researchers created a network containing 25 million fewer edges — or about 7% of the original U.S. commuting network — while preserving overall epidemic dynamics.

“Computer scientists Daniel Spielman and Nikhil Srivastava had shown that sparsification can simplify linear problems, but discovering that it works even for nonlinear, stochastic problems like an epidemic was a real surprise,” says Moore.

While still in an early stage of development, the research not only helps reduce the computational cost of simulating large-scale pandemics but also preserves important details about disease spread, such as the probability of a specific census tract getting infected and when the epidemic is likely to arrive there.

---

JOURNAL

PLoS Computational Biology

DOI

10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010650 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Effective resistance against pandemics: Mobility network sparsification for high-fidelity epidemic simulations

 Sub-Saharan Africa

Women experiencing intimate partner violence three times more likely to contract HIV

McGill researchers call for an end to gender-based violence to curtail new HIV infections

Peer-Reviewed Publication

MCGILL UNIVERSITY

Women that experience recent intimate partner violence (IPV) are three times more likely to contract HIV, according to a new study led by McGill University researchers. In regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, women face an intersecting epidemic of intimate partner violence and HIV.

“Worldwide, more than one in four women experience intimate partner violence in their lifetime," says McGill University Professor Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, a Canada Research Chair in Population Health Modeling.

"Sub-Saharan Africa is among one of the regions in the world with the highest prevalence of both IPV and HIV. We wanted to examine the effects of intimate partner violence on recent HIV infections and women’s access to HIV care in this region,” he says.

Their study, published in The Lancet HIV, shows considerable overlap between violence against women and the HIV epidemics in some of the highest burdened countries. Among women living with HIV, those experiencing intimate partner violence were nine per cent less likely to achieve viral load suppression – the ultimate step in HIV treatment.

New calls to eliminate all forms of sexual and gender-based violence

“The 2021 UN General Assembly, attended and supported by the Government of Canada, adopted the Political Declaration on HIV and AIDS with bold new global targets for 2025. This encompasses a commitment to eliminate all forms of sexual and gender-based violence, including IPV, as a key enabler of the HIV epidemic. Improving our understanding of the relationships between IPV and HIV is essential to meet this commitment,” says Professor Maheu-Giroux.

The researchers found that physical or sexual intimate partner violence in the past year was associated with recent HIV acquisition and less frequent viral load suppression. According to the researchers, IPV could also pose barriers for women in accessing HIV care and remaining in care while living with the virus.

“Given the high burden of IPV worldwide, including in Canada, the need to stem the mutually reinforcing threats of IPV and HIV on women’s health and well-being is urgent," says Salome Kuchukhidze, a PhD candidate studying epidemiology and the lead author of the research.

About the study

“The effects of intimate partner violence on women’s risk of HIV acquisition and engagement in the HIV treatment and care cascade: a pooled analysis of nationally representative surveys in sub-Saharan Africa” by Salome Kuchukhidze, Dimitra Panagiotoglou, Marie-Claude Boily, Souleymane Diabaté, Jeffrey Eaton, Francisco Mbofana, Lynnmarie Sardinha, Leah Schrubbe, Heidi Stöckl, Rhoda Wanyenze, and Mathieu Maheu-Giroux was published in The Lancet HIV.

---

JOURNAL

The Lancet HIV

DOI

10.1016/S2352-3018(22)00305-8 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

The effects of intimate partner violence on women’s risk of HIV acquisition and engagement in the HIV treatment and care cascade: a pooled analysis of nationally representative surveys in sub-Saharan Africa

The effect of investing in foreign countries to pay lower taxes on economic productivity

Peer-Reviewed Publication

STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT SOCIETY

An increasingly connected world and a strong digital economy have made it easier for multinational companies to have investments in multiple countries. This investment, where the company buys a controlling stake in a foreign company, is known as foreign direct investment. Making multiple foreign direct investments in countries with favorable tax policies, also known as tax havens, is a common strategy used by multinational companies to pay lower taxes and increase profits. But this strategy is commonly believed to have negative effects on the economic productivity of the home country (where the company is based) and the host country (the foreign country the company invests in).

Now, a new study published in the Global Strategy Journal suggests that foreign direct investments across multiple countries does not always have to be a bad thing; the effects are more nuanced than we think.

“The previous research on this strategic issue is a bit contradictory. It requires a more objective assessment to understand the effects of this strategy on the productivity of the host countries,” explains Soni Jha, one of the study’s authors and a doctoral candidate from the department of strategic management at Temple University. “We reasoned that these effects may depend on the position of the multinational company’s home country in the global foreign direct investment network. At the same time, countries that are connected to more tax havens in the network may benefit from more inflowing foreign direct investment.”

Jha, along with corresponding author Snehal Awate of the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, evaluated these ideas by analyzing data from 212 countries for the years between 2002 and 2012. Then they constructed a global foreign direct investment network and evaluated the economic productivity of both home and host countries using a concept called “total factor productivity” (essentially, how much output can be produced from a fixed amount of input).

At the primary level, the analysis revealed that routing foreign direct investments through multiple tax havens has different effects on the productivity of the home and host country. Dispersing foreign direct investments across a wider number of tax havens reduced the productivity of the home country. But at the same time, host countries benefitted from a greater number of foreign direct investments coming through the global network and had increased productivity.

“Visualizing the global foreign direct investment as a network allowed us to understand how it affects different countries and stakeholders,” explains Awate. “For example, the analyses also revealed that investments flowing to and from prominent and central tax havens are beneficial for the productivity of both, the host and home countries.”

To gain further insights, the authors classified these results based on the income level and developmental status of the countries in the network. They found that the benefits of incoming foreign direct investments from prominent, well-connected tax havens were mainly felt by less developed and low-income countries.

These findings fill in critical gaps in the understanding of tax havens and foreign direct investment. They highlight that being connected to a global tax haven network has benefits for less developed countries, and that the use of tax havens by multinational companies is not necessarily negative. These are particularly important to policymakers and researchers who are having conversations about a global tax framework.

Global Strategy Journal, published by the Strategic Management Society, publishes the most influential, managerial-oriented research on global strategy.

---

JOURNAL

Global Strategy Journal

DOI

10.1002/gsj.1466 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Offshore FDI, tax havens, and productivity: A network analysis