Monday, January 09, 2023

U.K. strikes to continue after government talks with unions fail

LONDON — Britain will face more strikes by workers demanding higher pay after meetings between ministers and trade unions on Monday failed to end a wave of stoppages across sectors from health care to transport.

More than 10,000 ambulance workers will walk out on Wednesday as planned, the GMB union said in a statement, after talks with health minister Steve Barclay failed to produce a breakthrough.

“There was some engagement on pay – but not a concrete offer that could help resolve this dispute and make significant progress,” GMB national secretary Rachel Harrison said.

With pay rises failing to keep up with double-digit inflation, which is now around 40-year highs, nurses, ambulance staff and rail workers are among those who have staged walkouts, with teachers also being balloted over action.

Teaching unions, who will announce the result of their strike ballots later this week, met with the education minister, while the health minister also spoke to unions representing nurses. The transport minister was due to meet rail unions.

The RCN, representing nurses, called the meeting with Barclay “bitterly disappointing.” It said there was a long way to go if ministers want to avert nurses strikes scheduled for Jan. 18 and 19.

Unions Unite and Unison, both representing health workers, also condemned the government’s approach. Unite’s Onay Kasab said the government made it clear that it wanted to discuss productivity savings in return for a further pay award.

“We’re talking about people who are working well beyond their contracted hours anyway, just to get the job done,” he told reporters. “Today is an insult to our members.”

Unions have said they will only call off strikes in the next few weeks if offers are made to resolve the disputes over this year’s pay settlement, while the government wants to focus on pay rises for the next financial year.

The government has argued that inflation-matching pay rises will only fuel further price increases and cause interest rates and mortgage payments to go up further.

During a visit to a health centre earlier on Monday, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told reporters the government was happy to discuss pay demands which were “anchored in what’s reasonable, what’s responsible, what’s affordable for the country.”

Asked about media reports the government was considering making a one-off payment to nurses to help with the cost of living, Sunak declined to comment on specifics. 

SAVE ORANGUTANGS BAN PALM OIL












Indonesia, Malaysia agree to fight against palm oil ‘discrimination’


Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim talks with Indonesian President Joko Widodo during their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Bogor, Indonesia, January 9, 2023. (Reuters)

Reuters, Bogor, Indonesia
Published: 09 January ,2023

Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s biggest producers of palm oil, agreed on Monday to work together to fight “discrimination” against the commodity after a meeting between leaders from the countries.

The comments by Indonesian President Joko Widodo followed a meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who was making his first overseas trip since being elected last November.

Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, said the two countries would “fight discrimination against palm oil” and “strengthen cooperation through the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries” to address concerns.

The European Union plans to phase out palm-oil based fuels by 2030 because of perceived links to deforestation.

During their bilateral meeting, Anwar and Jokowi signed eight memorandums of understandings covering shipping, export-import financing, green energy, the development of battery industry, which they said they hoped would deepen cross border trade and investment.

The leaders also discussed the development of Indonesia’s planned new capital, Nusantara, with Anwar handing over 11 letters of interest from Malaysian companies related to possible investment in the new city, located in the Indonesian portion Borneo.

The new capital could boost regional development, Anwar said, with the Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak located in the Malaysian part of Borneo island.

“We hope the development of the capital will bring greater benefits to the wider region, including on Sabah and Sarawak,” he said.




Eat the rich: Malaysian PM says no mercy for elites who benefit from cronyism
Photo from Anwar Ibrahim Facebook

By Coconuts KLJan 9, 2023 | 11:22am KL time

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s declaration of war on elites in Malaysia mirrored the father of cronyism, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad who ironically was very vocal in not tolerating cronyism and corruption.

Echoing the former prime minister, Anwar condemned rich elites who have benefitted from the practice and enriched themselves including those around them.

FYI, during Mahathir’s 22 years as prime minister, Malaysia’s economy grew as a result of a massive push in infrastructure and manufacturing, during which the nation built the iconic Petronas Twin Towers, the Kuala Lumpur International Airport, and a brand-new city for Putrajaya to serve as its administrative hub.

Critics charged that while it improved Malaysia’s standing internationally, it did so at the expense of cronyism, with Mahathir awarding the contracts to corporate moguls who are close to him, such Daim Zainuddin and Syed Mokhtar Al Bukhary.

Last night, Anwar Ibrahim apparently declared war on the “elite minority who have used their power to enrich themselves and their clans”.

Speaking at a dinner for the Malaysian community in Indonesia, the country’s 10th premier said he would not budge on the matter even if it cost him his job.

“Malaysia must be free from the greed of the elite minority who have used their power to enrich themselves and their clans. I will not compromise at all although it will threaten my position,” he said, Bernama reported.

Anwar added that a retreat will take place the following week and that Cabinet ministers will discuss their progress reports and future plans.

Getting the ministers’ views after more than a month of work, he claimed, and presenting issues that may be carried out or improved upon are the goals of the retreat.

“After that, we will make an announcement about the KPI (key performance indicator) and the hopes of each minister and ministry,” he said at the Q&A session at the dinner.

Anwar said the main focus of his government would be to strengthen a sustainable economy by attracting investment and ensuring social justice.

Wikipedia welcoming screenSAUDI GOVERNMENT AGENTS INFILTRATED the popular online encyclopedia Wikipedia and outed two of its editors, who are currently serving long prison sentences for posting criticism of the kingdom, according to a human rights group. It is alleged that, by the time Wikipedia discovered the infiltration, and terminated over a dozen infiltrators from its editing system, the two editors had already been arrested by the Saudi government. They are currently serving a total of 40 years in prison for “swaying public opinion” and “violating public morals” in the oil kingdom.

The allegation of the arrests of the two Wikipedia editors was made by Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), an American-based non-governmental organization, which campaigns in favor of democratic reforms in the Middle East. The group was founded in 2020 by supporters of Jamal Khashoggi, a dissident Saudi journalist who was brutally killed by Saudi government agents in Turkey in 2018.

Citing sources from within Wikipedia, DAWN said last week that the online encyclopedia was infiltrated by Saudi government agents who posed as editors. Wikipedia editors are unpaid volunteers who are given access to the website’s editing platform and are thus able to approve or deny webpage edits made by other Wikipedia users. They can also interact with users and with other editors. Many editors are given supplemental administrative privileges that allow them to make substantial changes to Wikipedia’s content.

According to DAWN, the Saudi state infiltrated Wikipedia with volunteer editors. Their mission was reportedly to delete content that contained criticisms of Saudi Arabia from Wikipedia’s webpages, and to identify Wikipedia editors who generated such criticisms. The pro-democracy group claims that Wikipedia’s statement earlier this month, which announced the termination of 16 of its editors, came in response to the discovery of the infiltration by the Saudi government. The encyclopedia said on January 7 that it had terminated the editors for “engaging in conflict of interest editing on Wikipedia projects in the MENA region”, but it did not provide specific information.

The DAWN report claims that the Saudi infiltration resulted in the arrest imprisonment of two Wikipedia volunteers in Saudi Arabia. The group has called on the online encyclopedia to “take responsibility for the fact that its authorized editors are today languishing in prison for work they did on Wikipedia pages”. Wikipedia, however, denies these claims, saying that the role of the Saudi state in this case has not been proven. But in a subsequent statement, DAWN challenged Wikipedia to release specific details about its investigation into “conflict of interest editing” and to publish a complete list of all Wikipedia pages that were affected by the biased editors. Wikipedia has not responded yet to these calls.

Is Ben-Gvir Preparing a Holy War Against the Palestinians?

Israel’s new national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, lost no time in demonstrating who is boss. On Tuesday, days after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was sworn in, the ultra-nationalist politician marched straight in to the Al-Aqsa Mosque complex in the occupied Old City of Jerusalem – probably the most incendiary site in the Middle East.

Ben-Gvir did so despite reports that he had agreed with Netanyahu to delay such a visit for fear of the potentially explosive consequences.

But who will hold him to account for playing with fire? A prime minister who desperately needs Ben-Gvir’s support to stay in power so that Netanyahu can legislate an end to his corruption trial and keep himself out of jail? Or the Israeli police force that Ben-Gvir himself now has unprecedented control over?

The leader of the fascist Jewish Power party used the visit to indicate both to his followers and to Netanyahu that he answers to no one, and that he will not compromise on his own extreme ideology of Jewish supremacism.

The visit sent another message too: Ben-Gvir appears ready to provoke a religious war – one that would demonstrate once and for all the power of his kind of Jewish zealotry and thuggishness to subdue all Muslim opposition. Al-Aqsa could be the powder-keg to ignite such a conflagration.

Ben-Gvir’s visit has passed, at least so far, without a significant Palestinian backlash, although Hamas had reportedly warned beforehand that it would not “sit idly by”, threatening “explosive violence”.

Ben-Gvir was testing the waters. He will surely be back soon, with bigger provocations. Both during and after Israel’s recent general election campaign, he called for Jews to be able to pray at the Muslim holy site, and has said he will demand that Netanyahu institute what he terms “equal rights for Jews” there.

Diplomatic protest

The fear of what Ben-Gvir may do next, unless Netanyahu reins him in, was part of the reason his visit triggered such a storm of diplomatic protest. Jordan, which has formal custodianship of the holy site, called in Israel’s ambassador for a dressing down, while the US, Israel’s patron, roused itself to describe the visit as “unacceptable”. The UAE postponed Netanyahu’s forthcoming visit.

Ben-Gvir will be delighted at such ineffectual reprimands. The precedent he was drawing on was the visit to Al-Aqsa in September 2000 of then-opposition leader Ariel Sharon backed by 1,000 members of Israel’s security forces, over the opposition of the Jerusalem police.

That incursion triggered a Palestinian uprising, the Second Intifada, justifying years of crushing Israeli military repression. Israel used tanks to confine the then Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, to his Ramallah headquarters, while the Israeli army emasculated the Palestinian Authority (PA), effectively reversing the promise of self-rule implicit in the Oslo Accords. Palestinian society was gradually bled of the ability and will to sustain an uprising that cost thousands of lives.

Ben-Gvir might be angling to provoke a similar confrontation to provide a pretext for finishing off what’s left of the PA. There could be a domestic political bonus too: Sharon rode the wave of Jewish nationalism he unleashed right into the prime minister’s office. The Israeli public wanted an uncompromising general and Jewish patriot to pound the Palestinian people into submission.

Already buoyed by a renewed wave of Jewish chauvinism, along with the political legitimacy Netanyahu has conferred on him by ushering his party into government, Ben-Gvir might be hoping to see that scenario play out again.

Rival nationalisms

Israeli media, Arab states and western diplomats have all framed Ben-Gvir’s visit as threatening what is known as the “status quo”: a set of principles agreed in the 19th century, and renewed after Israel’s occupation of Jerusalem in 1967, to enshrine Muslim sovereignty over the mosque complex and Muslim authorities’ power to regulate access and worship.

The truth, however, is that Israel has been whittling away the status quo at an ever-faster pace since Sharon’s visit. That was why the Israeli general’s incursion sparked an explosion from Palestinians two decades ago, while Ben-Gvir’s, so far at least, has not. Violations of the status quo by extremist Israeli politicians are no longer quite so out of the ordinary.

Perhaps more than any other Israeli leader of his time, Sharon appreciated the degree to which Al-Aqsa had become the symbolic, beating heart of a power play between rival Israeli and Palestinian nationalisms. Encouraging the distinction between national and religious sentiment to be blurred, as he did at Al-Aqsa, helped to unify an Israeli society deeply divided by questions of religion.

Ownership of the mosque complex – or Temple Mount, as Israeli Jews call it, referring to two ancient Jewish temples that supposedly lie beneath the plaza – was seen as the natural corollary, and confirmation, of Jewish title to the land. Or as Sharon put it at the time, the holy site was “the basis of the existence of the Jewish people, and I am not afraid of riots by the Palestinians”.

It was how the ultra-nationalist, secular Sharon redefined the conflict. He made an assertion of Jewish sovereignty over the plaza a prerequisite for any Israeli politician vying for power. After he became prime minister, and in the midst of the Second Intifada, Sharon in 2003 unilaterally enforced access for Jews and other non-Muslims to the site, over the opposition of the waqf, the Muslim religious authorities at Al-Aqsa.

Today, little of the status quo agreement survives. Israeli occupation forces exclusively determine who gets entry to Al-Aqsa. Muslim worship can be limited whenever Israel decides. Palestinians from Gaza, trapped in their enclave by fences and watchtowers, are permanently excluded from the holy site.

Meanwhile, Israeli soldiers in military fatigues, and religious Jews and settlers, have ready access – and they often use their visits to pray, in stark contravention of the status quo. Increasingly, Israeli security forces storm the mosque at will; such an incident in May 2021 contributed to weeks of violence across the occupied territories and inside Israel.

Master-serf relations

Like Sharon, Ben-Gvir views Al-Aqsa as a supreme nationalist cause. One of his legislators, Zvika Fogel, a former Israeli military commander in charge of Gaza, set out Ben-Gvir’s goal, suggesting it could be achieved without a Palestinian backlash: “We shouldn’t treat his visit as something that will lead to an escalation. Why not see it as part of realizing our [Jewish] sovereignty?”

Yet, faced with a weakened Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir must be hoping to push Sharon’s policy still further – not only asserting a principle of Jewish ownership of the holy site, but also entrenching the physical reality of absolute Jewish control.

This would include prioritizing Jewish worship, as now happens in Hebron at the Ibrahimi Mosque. It is a model that the settlers who follow Ben-Gvir want repeated at Al-Aqsa, and it also implies the physical partition of Al-Aqsa plaza, mirroring the reality in Hebron.

Such ambitions replicate at al-Aqsa the master-serf relationship that Israel has developed in the occupied territories of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Should Jewish rule over the plaza be contested, the Israeli government could then punish Muslims and ban access, with state police – now under Ben-Gvir’s control – empowered to break into the mosque or any other site on the plaza whenever they deem necessary.

But it does not end there. Like his supporters, Ben-Gvir wants to destroy the Muslim holy site and restore it as a Jewish temple. He said as much last May when he visited Al-Aqsa complex, posting a picture calling for the eradication of the mosque to “establish a synagogue on the mount”.

‘The last war’

For the time being, Ben-Gvir appears to be using his party’s legislators as his mouthpiece, so as not to jeopardize his coalition agreement with Netanyahu. After Tuesday’s visit, Fogel relished the prospect of Hamas retaliating with rocket fire out of Gaza. He said such a showdown “would be worth it because this will be the last war – and after that we can sit and raise doves and all the other beautiful birds that exist”.

Ben-Gvir does not need to set the fire directly at Al-Aqsa. With Israel’s police forces under his command, and with his political ally Bezalel Smotrich in charge of managing the occupation, he has a whole armory of other ways, particularly in Jerusalem, to inflame the Palestinian population.

Trigger-happy police killings of civilians, settlement expansion, house demolitions, and the building of a cable car route through occupied East Jerusalem to bring Jewish tourists to the foot of Al-Aqsa all have the potential to fire up tensions. Ben-Gvir can also make the lives of Palestinian security prisoners even more miserable, as he promised to do during the elections, provoking hunger strikes.

Palestinian anger often finds its outlet at Al-Aqsa because of the holy site’s role as a religious and nationalist symbol, particularly for a people denied any other symbols of nationhood.

Ben-Gvir’s closest political allies in the Temple Mount movement are already setting their sights on Passover in April, which this year coincides with the middle of Ramadan. They have appealed to the police, as they do every year, to allow them to carry out provocative rituals, such as animal sacrifice, associated with the construction of a Jewish temple in place of Al-Aqsa Mosque. Each year, police try to stop them; but this year, Ben-Gvir will be dictating police policy.

Scholar Tomer Persico, a keen observer of Ben-Gvir’s Kahanist roots, notes that in a 2019 interview, the Jewish Power leader argued that the “big difference” between him and his mentor, extremist Rabbi Meir Kahane, was that “they give us a microphone”, while Kahane was shunned by the Israeli political establishment.

That was three years ago. Ben-Gvir has rapidly become the new mainstream in Israel. Today, with his ministerial powers and a national platform to amplify his incitement, it is only a matter of time before he sets things alight.

Jonathan Cook won the Martha Gellhorn Special Prize for Journalism. 

Author: Jonathan Cook

Jonathan Cook is a writer and journalist based in Nazareth, Israel. His latest books are Israel and the Clash of Civilizations: Iraq, Iran, and the Plan to Remake the Middle East (Pluto Press) and Disappearing Palestine: Israel's Experiments in Human Despair (Zed Books). Visit his Web site

Why int'l community doesn't buy into "Chinese debt trap" myth

(Xinhua
January 09, 2023

How ironic to see that the United States, though touting the Chinese debt trap fallacy in a high voice, holds its tongue on the topic of doing more to help poorer countries address debt burden.

BEIJING, Jan. 8 (Xinhua) -- Michael Ondaatje, one of Sri Lanka's greatest chroniclers, once said, "In Sri Lanka, a well-told lie is worth a thousand facts."

That seems true in the case of the "Chinese debt trap" myth, for which rumormongers frequently single out China's financing in Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port.

By making a fuss over the Chinese investment and the recipient's debt troubles, and turning a blind eye to the fact that most of the nation's debt comes from the West, the propagators attempted to peddle a "post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy and misrepresent the cause of Sri Lanka's economic woes.

The international community doesn't buy into the West's and particularly Washington's accusations of the Chinese debt. Instead, "many countries prefer the engagement with China ... because China is giving them a better option" with respect to their social models and governance, Shakeel Ahmad Ramay, chief executive officer of the Asian Institute of Eco-civilization Research and Development in Pakistan, told Xinhua.

Meanwhile, the Global South is well aware of the ulterior motives of U.S. lies about so-called debt traps, carefully orchestrated to undermine cooperation among developing countries, and to maintain the U.S. hegemony by plundering and manipulating other economies.

"DEBT TRAP" MYTH DEBUNKED

A widely-circulated factoid goes that Chinese banks offered Sri Lanka predatory loans to build Hambantota Port despite unprofitability of the project, and eventually pushed Sri Lanka into default so that the country had to surrender control to a Chinese firm in exchange for debt relief.

All these allegations don't hold water.

A recent report by New York-headquartered Liberation News press agency disclosed that an Indian pundit put forth the term in an article in 2017 without actually doing any research. Soon afterwards, some Western media and politicians worked perversely to hype the debt-trap fallacy with concocted stories.

In one egregious instance, BBC News edited an interview with Deborah Brautigam, a U.S. scholar who has challenged the falsehood, by deliberately omitting all evidence she cited against it to mislead listeners.

In fact, Brautigam, an international political economy professor at Johns Hopkins University, has concluded the debt-trap narrative is just "a lie, and a powerful one" after a lengthy research done in collaboration with Meg Rithmire, an associate professor at Harvard Business School. In an article published in the Atlantic in 2021, the academics argued that Chinese creditors are willing to restructure the terms of existing loans and have never actually seized an asset from any country.

As for the financial plight facing Sri Lanka, data from its Department of External Resources shows that as of 2021, a staggering 81 percent of the country's foreign debt was owned by U.S. and European financial institutions as well as Western allies Japan and India, in sharp contrast with the mere 10 percent owed to Beijing.

"Sri Lanka has 47 percent of its debt in international sovereign bonds, which are the most painful," Kasun Kariyawasam, a Sri Lankan economist, told Xinhua, referring to the plurality of his country's foreign debt owned by Western vulture funds and banks. Empirical evidence proves the claim against China is untrue and based on distorted narratives, he said.

"Sri Lanka could sink into the Indian Ocean and most of the Western world wouldn't notice," Subhashini Abeysinghe, research director at Colombo-based think tank Verite Research, told Brautigam.

Then why did this island country become so prominent in Western politicians' speeches since 2017?

With the Belt and Road cooperation in full swing, "China currently offers an alternative to traditional financing schemes, which has led to more prosperous and realistic development aid." Western countries see this as a threat and create a discourse to deter developing countries from engaging with China, Argentine economist Pablo Levinton told Xinhua.

Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Mohamed Ali Sabry has lately condemned the "Chinese debt trap" narrative as a "Western phrase."

When Sri Lanka went to China in search of funds, China was respectful and never forced Sri Lanka to take money, he said, adding China also provided Sri Lanka with some financial facilities and credit line, as well as some humanitarian assistance.

TRUTH ABOUT CHINESE INVESTMENT


The enthusiasm across the Global South in participating in China-proposed development initiatives has rendered the Western anti-China propagation null.

China has signed Belt and Road cooperation documents with 150 countries and 32 international organizations, and the Global Development Initiative has equally won the support of more than 100 countries and international organizations.

There are many reasons why Chinese investment has been welcomed. Fundamentally, Chinese development financing is recipient-driven, as "infrastructure projects are determined by the recipient country, not China, based on their own economic and political interests," the above-mentioned Liberation News report observed.

Furthermore, China often advances loans at fairly low interest rates, and is willing to restructure the terms of existing loans to be more favorable to the borrowing country, or even forgive loans. As seen in the debt of African countries, the amount owed to Western private lenders is three times what they owe to China, and interest rates on private loans are twice those on Chinese loans, according to a study published in July by British charity Debt Justice.

In August 2022, the Chinese government announced it was forgiving 23 interest-free loans in some developing countries, in addition to China's cancellation of more than 3.4 billion dollars in debt and restructuring of around 15 billion dollars of debt in some developing countries between 2000 and 2019.

Many low- and middle-income countries prefer Chinese investment to that from the West, not only because China appears more like a benevolent creditor, but rich countries typically brand developing countries as high risks plus low rewards, and impose onerous conditions that delay project implementation and increase costs.

"Western lending tends to extend its conditions beyond loans ... and tends to invest in financial services and other industries related to the service sector," Sri Lankan economist Kasun Kariyawasam told Xinhua. In comparison, "Chinese loans are more flexible and do not include any non-loan conditions," and the funds commonly flow into "real assets that increase the value of the real economy."

Guided by the principles of sincerity, real results, affinity and good faith, and with a commitment to the greater good and shared interests, China endeavors to strengthen solidarity and cooperation with other developing countries and safeguard the common interests of the developing world, as stated in the report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

From the China-Laos Railway that transformed landlocked Laos into a land-linked hub to Kenya's Mombasa-Nairobi Railway contributing more than 0.5 percent to the African nation's economic growth, China has always upheld the principles of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits when partnering with other countries and abstains from internal interference.

Kenya is no stranger to the geopolitical games and anti-China narratives alike. Former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta sighed that there are always some people who like to point fingers despite the fact that China has sincerely helped Kenya solve problems and meet its needs with actions.

Having witnessed the completion of the Chinese-built Kipevu Oil Terminal project in the coastal Kenyan city of Mombasa last year, Kenyatta said he was often asked why Kenya and China cooperate so closely, and he responded that is because China and Kenya respect each other and treat each other as equals.

Poll results effectively reflect the Chinese investors' image in the recipients' eyes. A survey released in June by Johannesburg-based think tank The Ichikowitz Family Foundation found that a majority of African youths see China as the most influential and positive foreign player on the continent. The principal reasons they cited for China's positive influence include affordable Chinese products, Beijing's investments in local infrastructure and China's creation of jobs.

REAL CULPRIT


In his bestseller "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man," John Perkins suggested that debt trap is nothing new, but in light of its history, the real culprit of virtually every crisis was the United States.

The U.S. dollar as the globe's most dominant currency, Washington's hegemonic status in the international financial system and the spillover effect of U.S. policies, among other elements, have all contributed to the surge in national debt of developing countries.

In a report issued in August, researchers led by Professor Tang Xiaoyang of China's Tsinghua University found that with encouragement from Western financial institutions, the stock of sovereign bonds of all low- and middle-income countries rose by nearly 400 percent to reach 1,737.2 billion dollars from 2008 to 2020. Now interest payments to these Western institutions account for more than 63 percent of the total interest expenses of the bond-issuing countries.

Since the Federal Reserve's seven straight "jumbo" rate hikes in 2022 -- lifting the rates to 4.25-4.5 percent, a 15-year high -- could have dramatically impacted the debt construction or financial stability of these countries, a quite stronger dollar will substantially increase the debtors' repayment burden and eroded their solvency margin.

Under such circumstances, many borrowing countries have to issue new bonds with higher interest rates to repay old debt, sliding into a medium- and long-term vicious circle.

As the U.S. establishment hunted for prey and squeezed poor countries dry, vulture funds, pawns of U.S. interest groups and the Wall Street, have also set debt traps in developing countries to fill up their own pockets. The distressed debt investors typically buy sovereign debt of countries near or in default at deep discounts, then fiercely litigate to claim full payments and employ all possible tactics to bring debtors to heel.

Take Argentina's 15-year scuffle with Wall Street vultures. In 2001, Argentina defaulted on 100 billion dollars of sovereign bonds and offered debt revamps twice in 2005 and 2010, accepted by about 92 percent of the creditors, while a handful of vulture funds shunned the settlement process and hauled Argentina to U.S. courts, which had jurisdiction over the bonds.

Unfortunately, the U.S. federal court in 2014 barred Argentina from repaying other bondholders until it paid the holdout creditors, and forced the country into an agreement in 2016 to pay 4.65 billion dollars, a sum equivalent to nearly 1 percent of Argentina's GDP that year.

To settle a deal alone with NML Capital, a subsidiary of Elliott Management headed by Paul Singer, a mega-donor for the Republican Party, Argentina paid more than 800 million dollars for the bonds the hedge fund spent merely 48 million dollars on -- a return of more than 1,600 percent.

Speaking before the UN General Assembly in 2014, then Argentine President Cristina Fernandez accused vulture funds of practicing "economic and financial terrorism." It's even more horrible that the rogue debt collectors who Fernandez said caused "hunger, misery and poverty" were supported by the U.S. political establishment.

Argentina is by no means the only victim that has fallen prey to traps set by vulture funds.

Pierre Jacquemot, who served as the French ambassador to Kenya and Ghana, said at least 32 African countries encountered legal battles with vulture funds over distressed debt issues. His notion was reinforced in a study by Harry Verhoeven at Columbia University and Nicolas Lippolis at the University of Oxford, which found the rise in African debt due to Chinese lending pales in comparison with the debt burden created by private creditors of other countries in the last decade.

"Western lenders for long have not been put on the spotlight for debt relief because they successfully managed to dupe the world that it's only Chinese lenders that pose a threat to Africa," Uganda-based Vision Group journalist Mubarak Mugabo said.

As a matter of fact, China has extended debt suspension to other developing countries during the pandemic, but private lenders in the West did not, said Tim Jones, head of policy at Debt Justice.

How ironic to see that the United States, though touting the Chinese debt trap fallacy in a high voice, holds its tongue on the topic of doing more to help poorer countries address debt burden.

"Western leaders blame China for debt crises in Africa, but this is a distraction ... The UK and the U.S. should introduce legislation to compel private lenders to take part in debt relief," Jones said.

Should those Western countries truly care about the developing world, demonstrate their sincerity to give unflagging support long craved by the indebted countries or simply more concession on debt relief, instead of playing the old trick of "Chinese debt trap." Or at least, just stay out of the way of those genuinely lending a helping hand.

Clearly, they have neither such noble intention nor honorable deeds in this respect.

(Web editor: Cai Hairuo, Liang Jun)

STALINIST STATE CAPITALI$M

Trade and investment remain Vietnam’s economic saviours

Author: David Dapice, Harvard University

After two years curtailed by COVID-19 and marked by GDP growth of between 2 per cent and 3 per cent, Vietnam’s economy made a strong comeback in 2022. Projections forecast real GDP growth of about 7.5 per cent for 2022, slowing down from the 8.8 per cent GDP growth seen in the first nine months of the year.

Women work at Hung Viet garment export factory in Hung Yen province, Vietnam December 30, 2020 (PHOTO: Kham via Reuters Connect)

Exports from January through to November 2022 grew more than imports — with growth of 13 per cent for exports and 10 per cent for imports — so there is a modest trade surplus. Tourism has rebounded from 2021’s low levels, supporting strong growth in the service sector.

Manufacturing and industry grew by nearly 9 per cent through to the end of November — a slower rate than earlier in the year. There was a slowdown in export orders and hundreds of thousands of factory workers may be facing layoffs according to unofficial reports. This is a serious concern, especially if the trend intensifies in 2023. Vietnamese firms provide limited unemployment compensation, especially for workers with only a few years of service.

Corporate bonds are also in trouble, especially those of real estate companies. There are billions of dollars of bonds denominated in Vietnamese dong that need to be refinanced in 2022 and 2023. Most of these were sold through private placement and then sold to local investors. With tight credit, caused in part by the use of Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves to support its currency, it is difficult for companies to refinance.

Vietnam’s anti-corruption drive has begun looking into some land transfers by real estate companies, throwing doubt on their ability to receive full legal ownership or control of land needed for their projects. This makes it hard for banks to finance the projects or for foreigners to buy the assets. This could cause distress for many companies unless some resolution is reached. But these real estate problems are not nearly as large as those in China and should be manageable in Vietnam.

There are strengths to offset these challenges. Inflation is reported in the low single digits, though many complain that inflation is really higher. The currency has depreciated by only about 5 per cent against the US dollar as of early December 2022, less than in many other countries.

Fiscal policy has been restrained. With a few exceptions, most Vietnamese banks are in a strong position with adequate capital. High inflows and realisation of foreign investment suggest that as the global economy recovers there will be a continuing flow of workers from low-productivity agriculture to higher-productivity manufacturing. This will increase demand for real estate in cities, despite lower population growth.

Foreign direct investment into the manufacturing sector will also support growth and add to the structural transformation of the economy. Plans to cease or curtail the construction of new coal-fired powerplants will avoid stranded assets and pollution.

Meanwhile, participation in trade agreements is giving Vietnam access to world markets — though the Vietnamese government is hoping that China–US trade tensions do not prevent them from taking full advantage of their position as a supply base acceptable to the United States while relying on imports of intermediate inputs from China.

In 2023, it is anticipated that the drivers of the economy will no longer be exports or even consumer spending, which has seen 15 per cent growth during 2022. Instead, a further rebound in tourism as China unwinds its COVID-19 protocols along with sharp increases in government investment are intended to catapult Vietnam’s economy towards a target of 6.5 per cent GDP growth.

This is an ambitious target and one that may be difficult to reach if the world economy, or at least Vietnam’s major export markets of the United States, European Union and China, are softening.

Foreign direct investment may remain strong if companies continue to move out of China, reflecting concerns about the perceived instability of Chinese policy due to COVID-19 lockdowns and continuing concern with China’s tensions with other major economies.

Indeed, Vietnam may find that later this decade it is running out of rural labour that wants to leave for the factories. Farm workers numbered 24.5 million in 2014 and only 14.2 million in 2021, representing a decline of nearly 1.5 million each year according to data from the Asian Development Bank.

If that rate continued for another five years, those left in agriculture would be about as productive as those in manufacturing and many of them would be older workers not interested in factory work. The ‘motor’ of fast growth for the last decade would sputter and labour force growth would slow down. At that point, GDP growth would decrease to 5 per cent or less unless productivity across the economy grew more quickly.

This is the medium-term challenge for Vietnam — to switch its sources of growth to those based on productivity rather than labour reallocation through migration. But in 2023, assuming there are no major natural disasters, it should be possible for Vietnam to keep its economy’s momentum up as long as the global environment improves over the year.

David Dapice is a Senior Economist in the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at the John F Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

 cyber cybercrime handcuffs

Malware Threat Feeds On Escalating Narrative Warfare – Analysis

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State-sponsored efforts to increase malware attacks and seek ransoms are again on the rise. This type of cybercrime is increasing as certain countries feel more economic woe and displacement from the West. Poorly performing economies, due to sanctions, ineptitude or both, are increasing the likelihood of malware attacks and aggressive coding by state-supported criminal actors as part of a wider spree designed to disrupt the ability to closely examine indicators.

Cybercriminals and hackers are launching new campaigns of aggression by surveilling who is on their webpages. A normal practice perhaps in some countries, but when weaponized it turns into a potential revenue stream. Several countries around the world are beginning to support such practices. As international criminal investigations close one case, they uncover a multitude of new hacks. It is an internet-wide phenomenon exacerbated by the clashing narratives emerging across the social media landscape that amplify events on the ground.

Research shows that malware apps are published every eight seconds, indicating that malware is growing at an alarming rate. Analysts argue that state-of-the-art malware detectors yield results that significantly depend on the evaluation dataset. Indeed, none of the studied approaches has been reported to reach the highest predicted performance on all the evaluation settings. This suggests that trusting a single approach toward protection in a real-world setting is unrealistic. To be sure, some families of malware are detected very accurately by state-of-the-art approaches, but other malware can almost completely escape the detection of some approaches.

Triangulation between malware platforms’ victims, law enforcement agencies and private companies seems to offer the best way forward, but the malware community is increasingly avoiding the necessary informational requirements. A two-pronged communications security strategy, which plugs into an ecosystem and creates the ability to ward off intrusions, is warranted. Unity of effort in an increasingly hostile malware environment means one of two actions: Either people need to band together in unique ways or they must get ready to throw away their smartphones and other devices on a near-constant basis, depending on the rate of security protection versus malware aggressiveness.

Not helping is the narrative warfare, which helps to produce an endless stream of arguments and counterarguments, sometimes based on fact and sometimes on plants by soapbox social warrior shouters. “Narrativists” do not understand the complexity of the malware evolution because they will simply go with an answer that deflects from the truth.

The requirement to find fact as opposed to a narrative is an important distinction. In fact, narrative warfare, when combined with evolving technology, makes malware outbreaks more frequent and more targeted. Just pursuing a news website can invite an intrusion simply through the identification of an IP address.

Over the course of the past decade, information warfare has become the norm. What does it have to do with malware? Too much. Facts are facts, begging for the term “factualists,” whereas narratives are part of information warfare. Factualism is a form of evaluation that emphasizes the usage of facts, falsifiability, logic and reason. Narrativists are those who rely on information and bend it to their own needs. These two concepts, one a science and the other a form of entertainment played out between actors, are attracting more criminal malware activity by hostile state and nonstate actors as a means to collect revenue. Now, the factualists’ ability to accurately assess a situation is seriously damaged.

To be sure, Western law enforcement is increasingly targeting the cybercriminals and interrupting their “connections.” But there is also growing frustration that information warfare is going over its limits, resulting in unscrupulous behavior warranting an escalation cycle as cybercriminals respond. The information warfare environment is creating the conditions for more malware activations, instead of reducing the threat. Malware threat reduction needs to be at the forefront of a scientific approach to the messy situation of narrative warfare.

Research shows that cognitive prejudices, the transformation of information systems, competing demands on the education system and polarization are all a result of the problems of narratives. So, while trying to be helpful, the narrativists are performing a dangerous disservice.

To be clear, narratives do have an important function in strategic communications. The ideas put forth are necessary in times of war and confrontation. But the narratives need to be vetted for inaccuracy and bias. Malware needs to be recognized as a new weapon that is attracted to these falsehoods. It is a vicious circle that is very difficult to break because of human behavior in times of pandemic and warfare.


Dr. Theodore Karasik

Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior advisor to Gulf State Analytics and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Lexington Institute in Washington, D.C. He is a former Advisor and Director of Research for a number of UAE institutions. Dr. Karasik was a Lecturer at the Dubai School of Government, Middlesex University Dubai, and the University of Wollongong Dubai where he taught “Labor and Migration” and “Global Political Economy” at the graduate level. Dr. Karasik was a Senior Political Scientist in the International Policy and Security Group at RAND Corporation. From 2002-2003, he served as Director of Research for the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. Throughout Dr. Karasik’s career, he has worked for numerous U.S. agencies involved in researching and analyzing defense acquisition, the use of military power, and religio-political issues across the Middle East, North Africa, and Eurasia, including the evolution of violent extremism. Dr. Karasik lived in the UAE for 10 years and is currently based in Washington, D.C. Dr. Karasik received his PhD in History from the University of California, Los Angeles.

China’s authoritarian rule brings short-term gains but long-term pains to its climate policy

Author: Hao Tan, University of Newcastle

At the recent 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chinese President Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third leadership term. Xi’s power was further consolidated by stacking the CCP’s leadership team with loyalists. While there have been numerous analyses on what an increasingly authoritarian rule in China means for its people and the world, little has been said on the impacts of this tendency on climate policy.

Aerial view of the suburb and countryside in Chongqing, China, 13 October 2021 (Photo: Oriental Image via Reuters).

Xi’s re-election may enhance China’s climate policies over the coming years, given his strong personal commitment to environmental protection and green development. As a Party secretary of Zhejiang Province in the mid-2000s, he coined the phrase ‘clear waters and green mountains are as valuable as mountains of gold and silver’, which has become a national slogan since he assumed the presidency.

In September 2020, Xi stunned the world at a United Nations General Assembly meeting by committing China to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. This pledge was ahead of those of several major economies, including the United States, Japan, India, Brazil and Russia. In September 2021, Xi further pledged to stop funding new overseas coal power projects. China’s moves are widely seen as important contributions to global climate action.

Domestically, Xi has ‘personally planned, deployed, and promoted’ a central environmental inspection system that closely links ecological and environmental performance to disciplinary actions and promotion of local officials. This system has significantly enforced the implementation of climate policies in China.

However, the increasing authoritarian rule may undermine China’s climate actions in the longer run, thanks to its difficulties in handling the multitask problem. The growth of China’s energy consumption — a 3.4-fold increase over the past twenty years — has powered its rapid economic development, but also poses significant challenges to the country’s energy supply. As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China faces tremendous pressures to protect both global and local environments. A shift towards a low-carbon energy system also has considerable impacts on energy workers and low-income energy consumers, highlighting the need to consider energy justice as part of the climate transition process. But many of the activities required to achieve these goals are difficult to define or evaluate with quantitative measures.

China faces significant challenges in managing multiple energy and climate-related goals amid the increasingly authoritarian political context. Failures to balance competing economic, political and environmental demands will become major inhibitors to China’s ability to fulfil its climate commitments. Concerning signs have emerged in recent years.

As local officials increasingly focus on boosting performance indicators emphasised by Xi, other less-visible goals are being compromised. The pursuit of efficacy at all costs in a large-scale coal-to-gas heating transition project in rural Northern China resulted in significant energy injustice, leaving millions of residents in energy poverty and without proper heating over winter. The ‘campaign-style‘ carbon reduction efforts have contributed to power blackouts and disrupted economic activities in many regions.

Major policies might also abruptly shift due to changes in senior CCP leadership — or in Xi’s priorities. Soaring coal prices and a shift in focus towards energy supply security have led to changes in China’s coal policy. While the reduction of coal use was emphasised in previous Five-Year Plans, the target to reduce total coal consumption and coal’s contribution to primary energy consumption was removed in the 14th Five-Year Plan. 220 million tonnes of coal mining capacity were added in 2021 and the government confirmed its goal of adding 300 million tons of new coal production capacity in 2022.

Reversing the historical trend, the level of coal production has risen since 2017, reaching an all-time high of 4.1 billion tons in 2021. Further measures to incentivise higher coal production were announced as part of the government’s economic stimulus in May 2022. These include encouraging large coal mines to resume production, simplifying approval procedures and an additional, special re-lending quota of 100 billion RMB (US$15 billion) approved by the central bank to support coal output and reserve capacity.

Balancing economic, political and environmental priorities has proved a formidable challenge for democratic countries too, as evidenced by Europe’s ongoing energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Obstacles to effective energy and climate policy in a democratic process include uncertainties caused by electoral cycles and failures to take fast and decisive actions. These challenges lead to an overwhelming focus on short-term goals at the cost of addressing longer-term problems, such as climate change.

In contrast, the approach to climate and energy under China’s authoritarian political system may result in policies that sacrifice immediate needs for a grand national strategy. Provincial and local governments may have fewer incentives to perform in other areas of development, such as energy equality.

Collective action to implement climate policy may become more difficult due to a lack of stakeholder participation in decision-making and transparent negotiations. It is widely agreed that an effective and just energy transition requires a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches. China can draw on its own experiences with economic reform, such as the tax-sharing reform in the 1990s which established clearer and more rational divisions of spending responsibilities and taxation authorities between the central and provincial governments.

Overreliance on a top-down approach to drive climate-oriented policies may endanger the longevity of these policies. After all, however long Xi stays in power, he is unlikely to lead China through the realisation of the 2060 net-zero goal.

Hao Tan is Associate Professor at Newcastle Business School, University of Newcastle.