Wednesday, January 18, 2023

 

Central Asia’s Glaciers Are Melting At Astonishing Rates

After Central Asians were walloped by winter last week, many may find it hard to worry about too little snow. But that is a problem facing the region’s farmers and dam builders of the near future. Snow is an essential ingredient in the delicate annual cycle shaping seasonal river flows and thus food and electricity production.

While warming winters and shrinking glaciers have been obvious, and easy to measure, in Central Asia for decades, new data paint a fuller picture of what the future holds for these frozen reservoirs in the mountains. They are not only melting due to higher temperatures. Glaciers today are also being starved of replenishing snowfall each winter. Instead, precipitation is increasingly falling as rain, which further speeds melting as it flows across the ice and down into the valleys.

By the year 2100 the snowfall season in the Tian Shan mountains could be two months shorter, down from around five months today, modeling by Chinese scholars shows.

The Tian Shan range stretches from Uzbekistan, covering most of Kyrgyzstan, and into Kazakhstan and China, where it is the main source of fresh water in Xinjiang province.

Led by Xuemei Li of Lanzhou Jiaotong University, the researchers looked at temperature and precipitation data from 26 weather stations on the Chinese side of the Tian Shan between 1961 and 2020. With these figures they chart when the beginning of the snowfall season starts and ends, and how the dates are moving closer together, measuring what they call “snowfall phenology” – the rain-snow threshold, the potential snowfall season, and the observed snowfall season.

Already spring rain is replacing winter snow as much as 9.6 days earlier than in 1961; in the autumn, rain is turning to snow 6.6 days later. So, the snow season shrank by more than two weeks in the last six decades (2.8 days per decade).

Like most studies on the climate future, the authors model their predictions around four global warming scenarios (known as SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585) designed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These range from optimistic (i.e., even if all countries keep their commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions, which is vanishingly unlikely) to most devastating.

Under all scenarios, the season shrinks: “The potential snowfall season will start much later, end earlier, and last less time,” Li and her colleagues write in their December preprint article for The Cryosphere, a publication of the European Geosciences Union.

Were global mean temperatures to rise only 2 degrees Celsius (the SSP126 scenario), by the year 2100 the season would likely shorten by only another week. That figure rises steeply, however, with the increasingly dire scenarios: Under the most extreme (SSP585), it drops another six and a half days per decade – another two months shorter than today.

Thus, snow could stop falling before Valentine’s Day in 2100. Li and her colleagues estimate annual snow volume under this scenario to decrease by 26.5 percent.

While snow is one ingredient for glaciers, the other is cold – sorely lacking as human activity warms the planet.

A comprehensive study of glaciers published this month in Science found melting in Central Asia will peak between 2035 and 2055 – well within the lifetime of giant hydropower projects currently in the planning stages. After that, the amount of water the glaciers give off each summer – historically, a predictable pattern important for hydropower and farming – will dwindle steadily.

The Science paper confirms Central Asia’s glaciers are melting faster than the global average and could lose up to 75 percent of their 2015 mass by the year 2100.

Together, the two papers are yet more evidence that future water patterns in Central Asia will change significantly, impacting agriculture, electricity generation and all those who consume the fruit of both.

The Truth Behind European Big Oil’s Bet On Hydrogen

  • European governments are betting increasing amounts of cash on a hydrogen revolution.

  • Report: Of the refining sector’s €39 billion in planned investments in alternative fuels till 2030, nearly 75% will go towards increasing biofuels production.

  • The lion’s share of big oil’s green investments in downstream is focusing on bringing down carbon-intensity of their refinery operations.

Back in 2020, the European Union set out its new hydrogen strategy as part of its goal to achieve carbon neutrality for all its industries by 2050. The regional bloc outlined an extremely ambitious target to build out at least 40 gigawatts of electrolyzers within its borders by 2030, or 160x the current global capacity of 250MW. The EU also plans to support the development of another 40 gigawatts of green hydrogen in nearby countries that can export to the region by the same date. The EU also aims to have at least 6 gigawatts of clean hydrogen electrolyzers installed by 2024. But it appears European oil majors are only willing to dance to their own tune. A new study on behalf of Transport & Environment (T&E) has revealed that whereas Shell Plc (NYSE: SHEL), BP Plc (NYSE: BP), TotalEnergies SE (NYSE: TTE), ENI S.p.A (NYSE: E) and Repsol SA (OTCQX: REPYY) are actively investing in hydrogen, the lion’s share of their green investments are aimed at lowering the carbon intensity of their refinery operations rather than developing green transport fuels. 

Related: Freeport LNG Denies Reuters Report Claiming Further Restart Delay

Indeed, the study has found that of the refining sector’s €39 billion in planned investments in alternative fuels till 2030, nearly 75% will go towards increasing biofuels production. New advanced biofuels (HVO) plants will receive €2 to €3 billion in investments, doubling production capacity to 10 megatonnes by 2030, with the T&E analysis saying that’s 4 times higher than what can be sustainably sourced in the EU.

“Oil producers are promoting hydrogen as their big bet for the future, but in reality their investments in green hydrogen are pitiful. Instead they are focusing their new refining capacity on biofuels which cannot sustainably supply the world’s transport needs. This is not an industry pushing the boundaries of clean technology,” Geert Decock, electricity and energy manager at T&E, has said.

The oil refining industry is one of the key consumers of hydrogen right now, but most refineries are using “gray hydrogen”--derived from fossil fuels, rather than clean, green hydrogen. The T&E study says that oil companies plan to invest around €6.5bn in so-called ‘low carbon’ blue hydrogen to clean up their production processes, double what they are spending on the production of green hydrogen and e-fuels.

Where oil producers are investing in hydrogen, most is going towards replacing dirty gray hydrogen operations with blue hydrogen, which still uses polluting fossil gas. Instead of wasting their time on easy, short-term solutions, oil refiners should switch to producing green hydrogen and e-fuels for ships and planes today,” Geert Decock has concluded.

Betting On Hydrogen 

Still, European governments are betting increasing amounts of cash on a hydrogen revolution in a bid to reduce carbon emissions and meet its industrial ambitions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently promised a €3 billion investment vehicle, dubbed a hydrogen bank, that will “help guarantee the purchase of hydrogen” by spurring demand using money from the EU Innovation Fund.

The continent has already seen €13 billion in state aid approvals for national and cross-border projects so far. These include €5.4 billion for Hy2Tech, a cross-border initiative that aims to perfect hydrogen technology; €5.2 billion for Hy2Use which will invest in applications in hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as cement, steel and glass; more than €2 billion for German projects in steel; €220 million for a Spanish plant and €194 million for a Romanian plant. The EU hydrogen strategy comes with a hefty price tag estimated at $430B. The European Commission has set a target to boost hydrogen’s share to 14 percent of the EU’s final energy demand by 2050. Last year hydrogen accounted for a mere 2.5 percent of the world’s final energy demand.

Good news for natural gas companies: Although Brussels clearly favors “green” hydrogen produced by renewable energy, it has signaled that it will also encourage the development of "blue" hydrogen that is produced from natural gas paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS). The EU has said that hydrogen will play a key role in helping decarbonize manufacturing industries and the transport sector. The organization says it will support blue hydrogen during a "transition phase," although it has not mentioned it in its topline targets. The bloc plans to invest €18 billion in blue hydrogen projects.

The decision by European policymakers to support blue hydrogen came after years of hard lobbying by more than 30 energy companies including ExxonMobil, ENI, Shell, Total, Equinor ASA (NYSE: EQNR) and other European natural gas companies which called for a ‘‘technology-neutral strategy’’ arguing that renewables such as wind and solar cannot grow fast enough to power the “clean hydrogen” sector to meet decarbonization goals. The signatories have claimed the green hydrogen industry is currently too small to spark the growth of a large-scale European hydrogen economy in the space of just a decade.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

China Petrochemical Plant Shut After Huge Explosion

  • China's Panjin Haoye Chemical Co Ltd’s entire oil refinery and petrochemical complex was shut down after a huge explosion.

  • The explosion killed five and left eight missing on Sunday.

  • The plant has a crude refining capacity of 130,000 bpd.

China's Panjin Haoye Chemical Co Ltd’s entire oil refinery and petrochemical complex was shut down after a huge explosion killed five people and left eight missing on Sunday, Reuters has reported. 

According to Chinese state television, the explosion occurred at 3:13 p.m. (0713 GMT) on Sunday while the plant was undergoing maintenance work at an alkylation facility. Xu Peng, has estimated that the Haoye facility was processing at 62.5% of its crude refining capacity of 130,000 barrels per day (bpd) through 2022. The plant processed ~110,000 bpd in December, according to another China-based trade source.

The explosion has come at a time when crude prices thanks to increasing demand in China following its latest re-opening. RBC energy strategist Michael Tran says the "Chinese consumption machine" appears to be ramping up after December crude imports totaled 10.9M bbl/day, up 830K bbl/day from the previous 11 months of 2022. 

Meanwhile, China’s crude inventories are steadying but have fallen~30M barrels from the summer 2022 peak. Front-month Nymex crude for February delivery settled +8.2% to $79.86/bbl at the end of last week while March Brent crude closed +8.5% to $85.28/bbl, both posting their forth weekly gain in five weeks.

China's economic reopening has been the primary driver for higher oil prices, with signs of easing inflation in the latest CPI data also adding to the optimism about the U.S. economy either heading for a mild recession or a soft landing. Hedge fund trader Pierre Andurand has told Bloomberg that global oil demand could soar as much as 4% in the coming year if the world manages to fully emerge from Covid restrictions. Andurand has said that oil demand may increase by 3 million to 4 million barrels a day in 2023 helped by a switch to oil from gas. 

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

SpaceX Rocket Sends Solar Power Prototype Into Orbit

  • The Caltech Space Solar Power Project prototype launched into orbit as a part of an ambitious plan to harvest solar power and beam it back to Earth. 

  • Space solar power provides a way to tap into the practically unlimited supply of solar energy in outer space.

  • A Momentus Vigoride spacecraft carried aboard a SpaceX rocket on the Transporter-6 mission carried the 50-kilogram SSPD to space

The Caltech Space Solar Power Project (SSPP) prototype launched into orbit, dubbed the Space Solar Power Demonstrator (SSPD), will test several key components of an ambitious plan to harvest solar power in space and beam the energy back to Earth.

Space solar power provides a way to tap into the practically unlimited supply of solar energy in outer space, where the energy is constantly available without being subjected to the cycles of day and night, seasons, and cloud cover.

For more lots more images, gifs and video, here are the links: 1st, Cal Tech’s press release. Then 2nd, the project web site.

The launch represents a major milestone in the project and promises to make what was once science fiction a reality. When fully realized, SSPP will deploy a constellation of modular spacecraft that collect sunlight, transform it into electricity, then wirelessly transmit that electricity over long distances wherever it is needed – including to places that currently have no access to reliable power.

A Momentus Vigoride spacecraft carried aboard a SpaceX rocket on the Transporter-6 mission carried the 50-kilogram SSPD to space. It consists of three main experiments, each tasked with testing a different key technology of the project:

  • DOLCE (Deployable on-Orbit ultraLight Composite Experiment): A structure measuring 6 feet by 6 feet that demonstrates the architecture, packaging scheme and deployment mechanisms of the modular spacecraft that would eventually make up a kilometer-scale constellation forming a power station;
  • ALBA: A collection of 32 different types of photovoltaic (PV) cells, to enable an assessment of the types of cells that are the most effective in the punishing environment of space;
  • MAPLE (Microwave Array for Power-transfer Low-orbit Experiment): An array of flexible lightweight microwave power transmitters with precise timing control focusing the power selectively on two different receivers to demonstrate wireless power transmission at distance in space.

An additional fourth component of SSPD is a box of electronics that interfaces with the Vigoride computer and controls the three experiments.

SSPP got its start in 2011 after philanthropist Donald Bren, chairman of Irvine Company and a lifetime member of the Caltech Board of Trustees, learned about the potential for space-based solar energy manufacturing in an article in the magazine Popular Science.

Intrigued by the potential for space solar power, Bren approached Caltech’s then-president Jean-Lou Chameau to discuss the creation of a space-based solar power research project. In 2013, Bren and his wife, Brigitte Bren, a Caltech trustee, agreed to make the donation to fund the project. The first of the donations (which will eventually exceed $100 million) was made that year through the Donald Bren Foundation, and the research began.

Bren said, “For many years, I’ve dreamed about how space-based solar power could solve some of humanity’s most urgent challenges. Today, I’m thrilled to be supporting Caltech’s brilliant scientists as they race to make that dream a reality.”

The rocket took approximately 10 minutes to reach its desired altitude. The Momentus spacecraft was deployed from the rocket into orbit. The Caltech team on Earth plans to start running their experiments on the SSPD within a few weeks of the launch.

Some elements of the test will be conducted quickly. “We plan to command the deployment of DOLCE within days of getting access to SSPD from Momentus. We should know right away if DOLCE works,” said Sergio Pellegrino, Caltech’s Joyce and Kent Kresa Professor of Aerospace and Professor of Civil Engineering and co-director of SSPP. Pellegrino is also a senior research scientist at JPL, which Caltech manages for NASA.

Other elements will require more time. The collection of photovoltaics will need up to six months of testing to give new insights into what types of photovoltaic technology will be best for this application. MAPLE involves a series of experiments, from an initial function verification to an evaluation of the performance of the system under different environments over time.

Meanwhile, two cameras on deployable booms mounted on DOLCE and additional cameras on the electronics box will monitor the experiment’s progress, and stream a feed back down to Earth. The SSPP team hopes that they will have a full assessment of the SSPD’s performance within a few months of the launch.

Numerous challenges remain: nothing about conducting an experiment in space – from the launch to the deployment of the spacecraft to the operation of the SSPD – is guaranteed. But regardless of what happens, the sheer ability to create a space-worthy prototype represents a significant achievement by the SSPP team.

Ali Hajimiri, Caltech’s Bren Professor of Electrical Engineering and Medical Engineering and co-director of SSPP said, “No matter what happens, this prototype is a major step forward. It works here on Earth, and has passed the rigorous steps required of anything launched into space. There are still many risks, but having gone through the whole process has taught us valuable lessons. We believe the space experiments will provide us with plenty of additional useful information that will guide the project as we continue to move forward.”

Although solar cells have existed on Earth since the late 1800s and currently generate about 4 percent of the world’s electricity (in addition to powering the International Space Station), everything about solar power generation and transmission needed to be rethought for use on a large scale in space.

Solar panels are bulky and heavy, making them expensive to launch, and they need extensive wiring to transmit power. To overcome these challenges, the SSPP team has had to envision and create new technologies, architectures, materials, and structures for a system that is capable of the practical realization of space solar power, while being light enough to be cost-effective for bulk deployment in space, and strong enough to withstand the punishing space environment.

Pellegrino commented, “DOLCE demonstrates a new architecture for solar-powered spacecraft and phased antenna arrays. It exploits the latest generation of ultrathin composite materials to achieve unprecedented packaging efficiency and flexibility. With the further advances that we have already started to work on, we anticipate applications to a variety of future space missions.”

Hajimiri noted, “The entire flexible MAPLE array, as well as its core wireless power transfer electronic chips and transmitting elements, have been designed from scratch. This wasn’t made from items you can buy because they didn’t even exist. This fundamental rethinking of the system from the ground up is essential to realize scalable solutions for SSPP.”

The entire set of three prototypes within the SSPD was envisioned, designed, built, and tested by a team of about 35 individuals. “This was accomplished with a smaller team and significantly fewer resources than what would be available in an industrial, rather than academic, setting. The highly talented team of individuals on our team has made it possible to achieve this,” Hajimiri added.

Those individuals, however – a collection of graduate students, postdocs, and research scientists – now represent the cutting edge in the burgeoning space solar power field.

“We’re creating the next generation of space engineers,” said SSPP researcher Harry A. Atwater, Caltech’s Otis Booth Leadership Chair of the Division of Engineering and Applied Science and the Howard Hughes Professor of Applied Physics and Materials Science, and director of the Liquid Sunlight Alliance, a research institute dedicated to using sunlight to make liquid products that could be used for industrial chemicals, fuels, and building materials or products.

Success or failure from the three testbeds will be measured in a variety of ways. The most important test for DOLCE is that the structure completely deploys from its folded-up configuration into its open configuration. For ALBA, a successful test will provide an assessment of which photovoltaic cells operate with maximum efficiency and resiliency. MAPLE’s goal is to demonstrate selective free-space power transmission to different specific targets on demand.

“Many times, we asked colleagues at JPL and in the Southern California space industry for advice about the design and test procedures that are used to develop successful missions. We tried to reduce the risk of failure, even though the development of entirely new technologies is inherently a risky process,” said Pellegrino.

SSPP aims to ultimately produce a global supply of affordable, renewable, clean energy. More about SSPP can be found on the program’s website: https://www.spacesolar.caltech.edu/

***

Your humble writer says this is a huge success right now. And will add a thanks to a privateer investor, Donald Bren, his wife, Brigitte Bren, and his foundation. Sometimes great wealth gives back in a great way.

There isn’t a failure possible in this. The test equipment is in orbit and the information, every byte, is a success. The question that exists is just how fully realized will the tests and experiments get? One hopes far enough to encourage more investment and further research.

By Brian Westenhaus via New Energy and Fuel