Thursday, February 09, 2023

UK Scientists make major breakthrough in developing practical quantum computers that can solve big challenges of our time

Universal of Sussex and Universal Quantum scientists have, for the first time, connected quantum microchips together, like a jigsaw puzzle, to make powerful quantum computers and with record breaking connection speed and accuracy

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX

Graphic showing two quantum computer modules being aligned so that atoms can transfer from one quantum computer microchip to another 

IMAGE: GRAPHIC SHOWING TWO QUANTUM COMPUTER MODULES BEING ALIGNED SO THAT ATOMS CAN TRANSFER FROM ONE QUANTUM COMPUTER MICROCHIP TO ANOTHER view more 

CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX

Researchers from the University of Sussex and Universal Quantum have demonstrated for the first time that quantum bits (qubits) can directly transfer between quantum computer microchips and demonstrated this with record-breaking speed and accuracy.  This breakthrough resolves a major challenge in building quantum computers large and powerful enough to tackle complex problems that are of critical importance to society.

Today, quantum computers operate on the 100-qubit scale. Experts anticipate millions of qubits are required to solve important problems that are out of reach of today’s most powerful supercomputers [1, 2]. There is a global quantum race to develop quantum computers that can help in many important societal challenges from drug discovery to making fertilizer production more energy efficient and solving important problems in nearly every industry, ranging from aeronautics to the financial sector.

In the research paper, published today (from 10:00 GMT, Wednesday 8 February 2023) in Nature Communications, the scientists demonstrate how they have used a new and powerful technique, which they dub ‘UQ Connect’, to use electric field links to enable qubits to move from one quantum computing microchip module to another with unprecedented speed and precision. This allows chips to slot together like a jigsaw puzzle to make a more powerful quantum computer.

The University of Sussex and Universal Quantum team were successful in transporting the qubits with a 99.999993% success rate and a connection rate of 2424/s, both numbers are world records and orders of magnitude better than previous solutions.

Professor Winfried Hensinger, Professor of Quantum Technologies at the University of Sussex and Chief Scientist and Co-founder at Universal Quantum said: “As quantum computers grow, we will eventually be constrained by the size of the microchip, which limits the number of quantum bits such a chip can accommodate. As such, we knew a modular approach was key to make quantum computers powerful enough to solve step-changing industry problems. In demonstrating that we can connect two quantum computing chips – a bit like a jigsaw puzzle – and, crucially, that it works so well, we unlock the potential to scale-up by connecting hundreds or even thousands of quantum computing microchips.”

While linking the modules at world-record speed, the scientists also verified that the ‘strange’ quantum nature of the qubit remains untouched during transport, for example, that the qubit can be both 0 and 1 at the same time.

Dr Sebastian Weidt, CEO and Co-founder of Universal Quantum, and Senior Lecturer in Quantum Technologies at the University of Sussex said: “Our relentless focus is on providing people with a tool that will enable them to revolutionise their field of work. The Universal Quantum and University of Sussex teams have done something truly incredible here that will help make our vision a reality. These exciting results show the remarkable potential of Universal Quantum’s quantum computers to become powerful enough to unlock the many lifechanging applications of quantum computing.”

Universal Quantum has just been awarded €67 million from the German Aerospace Center (DLR) to build two quantum computers where they will deploy this technology as part of the contract. The University of Sussex spin-out was also recently named as one of the 2022 Institute of Physics award winners in the Business Start-up category.

Weidt added: “The DLR contract was likely one of the largest government quantum computing contracts ever handed out to a single company. This is a huge validation of our technology. Universal Quantum is now working hard to deploy this technology in our upcoming commercial machines.”

Dr Mariam Akhtar led the research during her time as Research Fellow at the University of Sussex and Quantum Advisor at Universal Quantum. She said: “The team has demonstrated fast and coherent ion transfer using quantum matter links. This experiment validates the unique architecture that Universal Quantum has been developing – providing an exciting route towards truly large-scale quantum computing.”

Professor Sasha Roseneil, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Sussex, said: “It’s fantastic to see that the inspired work of the University of Sussex and Universal Quantum physicists has resulted in this phenomenal breakthrough, taking us a significant step closer to a quantum computer that will be of real societal use. These computers are set to have boundless applications – from improving the development of medicines, creating new materials, to maybe even unlocking solutions to the climate crisis. The University of Sussex is investing significantly in quantum computing to support our bold ambition to host the world’s most powerful quantum computers and create change that has the potential to positively impact so many people across the world. And with teams spanning the spectrum of quantum computing and technology research, the University of Sussex has both a breadth and a depth of expertise in this. We are still growing our research and teaching in this area, with plans for new teaching programmes, and new appointments.”

Professor Keith Jones, Interim Provost and Pro-Vice Chancellor for Research and Enterprise at the University of Sussex, said of the development: “This is a very exciting finding from our University of Sussex physicists and Universal Quantum. It proves the value and dynamism of this University of Sussex spin-out company, whose work is grounded in rigorous and world-leading academic research. Quantum computers will be pivotal in helping to solve some of the most pressing global issues. We're delighted that Sussex academics are delivering research that offers hope in realising the positive potential of next-generation quantum technology in crucial areas such as sustainability, drug development, and cybersecurity.”  

-ENDS-

NOTES TO EDITOR

[1] Webber, M., et. al. AVS Quantum Sci. 4, 013801 (2022)

[2] Lekitsch, B., et al., Science Advances, 3(2), 1–12 (2017)

MEDIA CONTACTS

University of Sussex

Alice Ingall: a.r.ingall@sussex.ac.uk / 07899096299
Anna Ford: a.ford@sussex.ac.uk / press@sussex.ac.uk

Universal Quantum

Gemma Church: gemma@universalquantum.com / media@universalquantum.com /+44 7967 565 080

ABOUT THE UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX

For over 60 years the aim of our courses, research, culture and campus has been to stimulate, excite and challenge. So, from scientific discovery to global policy, from student welfare to career development, the University of Sussex innovates and takes a lead. And today, in every part of society and across the world, you will find someone from the University of Sussex making an original and valuable contribution. Visit www.sussex.ac.uk     

ABOUT UNIVERSAL QUANTUM

Universal Quantum builds quantum computers that will one day help humanity solve some of its most pressing problems in areas such as drug discovery and climate change as well as shed light on its biggest scientific mysteries. To achieve this, quantum computers with millions of qubits are required, which is often described as one of the biggest technology challenges of our time.

Universal Quantum has developed a unique modular architecture to solve exactly that challenge. Its trapped ion-based electronic quantum computing modules are manufactured using available silicon technology. Individual modules are connected using its record-breaking UQ Connect technology to form an architecture that can scale to millions of qubits.

With 15+ years of quantum computing experience, Universal Quantum is a spin-out from the University of Sussex, founded by Dr Sebastian Weidt and Professor Winfried Hensinger in 2018 and supported by leading investors. Visit www.universalquantum.com
 

University of Sussex and Universal Quantum scientists, Professor Winfried Hensinger and Dr Sebastian Weidt in University of Sussex quantum computing labs.

Quantum computer setup at the University of Sussex with two quantum computer microchips where quantum bits are transferred from one microchip to another with record speed.

CREDIT

University of Sussex

Air pollution linked with blood pressure in London teens


Associations between pollutant levels and blood pressure were stronger for girls than boys in study

Peer-Reviewed Publication

PLOS

Associations between air pollutants and blood pressure in an ethnically diverse cohort of adolescents in London, England 

IMAGE: THE RESEARCH SUGGESTS THAT IN ADOLESCENTS LIVING IN LONDON, UK, EXPOSURE TO HIGHER LEVELS OF THE POLLUTANT NITROGEN DIOXIDE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE, WHILE EXPOSURE TO HIGHER LEVELS OF PARTICULATE MATTER 2.5 (PM2.5) WAS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE. view more 

CREDIT: MARIO LA PERGOLA, UNSPLASH, CC0 (HTTPS://CREATIVECOMMONS.ORG/PUBLICDOMAIN/ZERO/1.0/)

In a new analysis involving adolescents living in London, exposure to higher levels of the pollutant nitrogen dioxide was associated with lower systolic blood pressure, while exposure to higher levels of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) was associated with higher systolic blood pressure. Alexis Karamanos of King’s College London and colleagues present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on February 8, finding that these associations are stronger for girls than for boys.

Exposure to air pollutants is linked to greater risk of cardio-respiratory disease, hospital visits, and death. Adolescents’ rapidly growing bodies may be particularly susceptible to long-lasting effects of exposure to air pollutants, including effects on blood pressure. However, most prior studies on air pollution and blood pressure have focused on adults.

To better understand these associations in adolescents, Karamanos and colleagues analyzed data collected as part of the Determinants of Adolescent Social Well-Being and Health (DASH) study, which tracks the well-being of thousands of ethnically diverse London schoolchildren over time. For this analysis, they used data on 3,284 adolescents in DASH to examine associations between blood pressure and exposure to pollution in the form of nitrogen dioxide and PM2.5; exposures were estimated based on annual mean levels of pollutants where each participant lived.

The researchers found that greater estimated exposure to nitrogen dioxide was associated with lower systolic blood pressure, and greater estimated exposure to PM2.5 was associated with higher systolic blood pressure. These associations were stronger in girls than in boys. No evidence of a relationship between nitrogen dioxide/PM2.5 and diastolic blood pressure was observed.

For example, a 1μg/m 3 increase in nitrogen dioxide was associated with a 0.30 mmHg (95% CI 0.18 to 0.40) decrease in systolic blood pressure for girls and 0.19 mmHg (95% CI 0.07 to 0.31) decrease in systolic blood pressure for boys. Meanwhile, a 1μg/m 3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a 1.34 mmHg (95% CI 0.85 to 1.82) increase in systolic blood pressure for girls and 0.57 mmHg (95% CI 0.04 to 1.03) increase in systolic blood pressure for boys. The associations between pollutants and blood pressure were consistent regardless of ethnicity, body size, or socioeconomic status.

Eighty percent of the adolescents studied were from ethnic minority groups, and the residential estimates suggest that these adolescents were exposed to higher levels of the pollutants than their white peers.

The researchers call for further studies to help confirm and clarify these findings, particularly among young people from different socioeconomic backgrounds. They also note that levels of nitrogen dioxide and PM2.5 in London remain well above World Health Organization Guidelines, suggesting opportunities to reduce pollution and improve lifelong health for adolescents in the city.

Seeromanie Harding, from King’s College, London, adds: “This longitudinal study provides a unique opportunity to track exposures of adolescents living in deprived neighborhoods. Given that more than 1 million under 18s live in neighborhoods where air pollution is higher than the recommended health standards, there is an urgent need for more of these studies to gain an in-depth understanding of the threats and opportunities to young people’s development.”

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In your coverage please use this URL to provide access to the freely available article in PLOS ONEhttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0279719

Citation: Karamanos A, Lu Y, Mudway IS, Ayis S, Kelly FJ, Beevers SD, et al. (2023) Associations between air pollutants and blood pressure in an ethnically diverse cohort of adolescents in London, England. PLoS ONE 18(2): e0279719. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0279719

Author Countries: UK, China, Brazil

Funding: The study was funded by the MRC (10.13039/N4 501100000265, MC_U130015185/MC_UU_12017/1/ MC_UU_12017/13) North Central London Consortium and the Primary Care Research Network. This work was also supported by the MRC Centre for Environment and Health, which is currently funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/S019669/1, 2019-2024). Infrastructure support for the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics was provided by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Fine particles in the air associated with higher blood pressure in London teens

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KING'S COLLEGE LONDON

A study of adolescents aged 11-16 in London has found long-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with higher blood pressure, with stronger associations seen in girls.

Findings also show that exposure to high levels of nitrogen dioxide is associated with lower blood pressure in this group.

The paper, published today in PLOS One by researchers from King’s College London, examines the possible effects of long-term exposure to air pollution in children attending 51 schools across the capital.

Senior author Professor Seeromanie Harding, from King’s College London, said: “This longitudinal study provides a unique opportunity to track exposures of adolescents living in deprived neighbourhoods. Given that more than 1 million under 18s live in neighbourhoods where air pollution is higher than the recommended health standards, there is an urgent need for more of these studies to gain an in-depth understanding of the threats and opportunities to young people’s development.”

Air pollution particles are inhaled into the body and can get into the bloodstream, causing damage to blood vessels and airways. While the effect of air pollution on adult blood pressure is well known, few longitudinal studies have examined adolescents.

The period between 11-16 years of age is particularly important as adolescents continue to grow and develop. Negative effects on their organs at this stage could lead to life-long complications.

Researchers analysed data of 3284 adolescents and followed up from ages 11-13 and 14-16 years old. They measured systolic and diastolic blood pressure at participants schools.

The results show Particulate Matter (PM2.5), tiny pollutants in the air that come from car exhaust fumes, building and industry materials, were associated with higher blood pressure across all ages, and were particularly felt among girls (a μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with 1.34 mmHg increase in systolic BP for girls and 0.57 mmHg increase in systolic BP for boys). Higher blood pressure can raise the risk of hypertension, heart attacks and strokes in adulthood.

Interestingly, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a pollutant which in London is predominately due to diesel traffic, was associated with lower blood pressure. Systolic blood pressure decreased by ~5 mmHg for boys and ~8 mmHg for girls when NO2 almost doubled from a low to a high concentration .

Previous research has shown NO2 may have damaging effects on the respiratory system, but the impacts of the pollutant on the cardiovascular system is less clear. However, a recent study from this group found that sitting next to a lit gas cooker - which emits NO2  - acutely lowers blood pressure in healthy adult volunteers by ~5 mmHg. That effect was explained by a rapid increase in circulating nitrite (NO2-) concentration in the blood.

Co-author Dr Andrew Webb from King’s College London said: “The effect of NOon blood pressure is similar to what we and other researchers have observed previously after ingesting green leafy vegetables or beetroot juice. These are rich in dietary nitrate (NO3-) which increases circulating nitrite (NO2-) concentration in the blood and lowers blood pressure, an effect which may also be sustained over weeks or months with continued ingestion of nitrate-rich vegetables. As NOalso increases circulating nitrite (NO2-) concentration, this provides a potential explanation as to why elevated NO2 appears to be associated with lower blood pressure in the adolescents over years.”

Researchers also found adolescents from ethnic minority groups were exposed to higher annual average concentrations of pollution at home than their White UK peers, but impact of pollutants on blood pressure did not vary according to ethnicity, BMI, or economic status.

study in 2021 found that 3.1m children across England go to schools in areas exceeding WHO limits on PM2.5 and 98 per cent of schools in London are in areas exceeding World Health Organization pollution limits.

Corresponding author Dr Alexis Karamanos, from King’s College London, said: “The findings highlight the potential detrimental role of exposure to higher concentrations of particulate matter on adolescents' blood pressure levels.”

"Further studies following the same adolescents over time in different socio-economic contexts are needed to understand whether and how exposure to higher pollutant concentrations may affect differently the cardiovascular health of children and adolescents.”

Data was taken from the DASH study, a multi-ethnic longitudinal study which reflects the diversity of London. DASH seeks to understand what contributes to ethnic differences in physical and mental health over the life course and is one of few studies worldwide which includes BP measurement data in childhood and adolescence.

In an astro-engineering approach to climate change mitigation, researchers calculate how dust could be fired from the Moon into space to attentuate the Sun's rays


Peer-Reviewed Publication

PLOS

In an astro-engineering approach to climate change mitigation, researchers calculate how dust could be fired from the Moon into space to attentuate the Sun's rays 

IMAGE: SIMULATED STREAM OF DUST LAUNCHED BETWEEN EARTH AND THE SUN. THIS DUST CLOUD IS SHOWN AS IT CROSSES THE DISK OF THE SUN, VIEWED FROM EARTH. STREAMS LIKE THIS ONE, INCLUDING THOSE LAUNCHED FROM THE MOON’S SURFACE, CAN ACT AS A TEMPORARY SUN SHADE. view more 

CREDIT: BEN BROMLEY, CC-BY 4.0 (HTTPS://CREATIVECOMMONS.ORG/LICENSES/BY/4.0/)

In an astro-engineering approach to climate change mitigation, researchers calculate how dust could be fired from the Moon into space to attentuate the Sun's rays.

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Article URL: https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000133

Article Title: Dust as a solar shield      

Author Countries: USA

Funding: The University of Utah Office of Undergraduate Research provided a stipend to co-author SHK through the Undergraduate Research Opportunity Program (http://our.utah.edu/research-scholarship-opportunities/urop/). The funder(s) had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Could space dust help protect the earth from climate change?

Peer-Reviewed Publication

HARVARD-SMITHSONIAN CENTER FOR ASTROPHYSIC

Cambridge, Mass. – On a cold winter day, the warmth of the sun is welcome. Yet as humanity emits more greenhouse gases, the Earth's atmosphere traps more and more of the sun's energy, which steadily increases the Earth's temperature. One strategy for reversing this trend is to intercept a fraction of sunlight before it reaches our planet. 

For decades, scientists have considered using screens or other objects to block just enough of the sun’s radiation — between 1 or 2 percent — to mitigate the effects of global warming. Now, a new study led by scientists at the Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian and the University of Utah explores the potential of using dust to shield sunlight. 

The paper, published today in the journal PLOS Climate, describes different properties of dust particles, quantities of dust and the orbits that would be best suited for shading Earth. The team found that launching dust from Earth to a way station at the “Lagrange Point” between Earth and the sun would be most effective but would require an astronomical cost and effort. 

The team proposes moondust as an alternative, arguing that lunar dust launched from the moon could be a low-cost and effective way to shade the Earth.

"It is amazing to contemplate how moon dust — which took over four billion years to generate — might help slow the rise in the Earth’s temperature, a problem that took us less than 300 years to produce,” says study co-author Scott Kenyon of the Center for Astrophysics.

The team of astronomers applied a technique used to study planet formation around distant stars — their usual research focus — to the lunar dust concept. Planet formation is a messy process that kicks up astronomical dust, which forms rings around host stars. These rings intercept light from the central star and re-radiate it in a way that can be detected.

“That was the seed of the idea; if we took a small amount of material and put it on a special orbit between the Earth and the sun and broke it up, we could block out a lot of sunlight with a little amount of mass,” says Ben Bromley, professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Utah and lead author for the study.

Casting a shadow

According to the team, a sunshield’s overall effectiveness would depend on its ability to sustain an orbit that casts a shadow on Earth. Sameer Khan, Utah undergraduate student and study co-author, led the initial exploration into which orbits could hold dust in position long enough to provide adequate shading. 

“Because we know the positions and masses of the major celestial bodies in our solar system, we can simply use the laws of gravity to track the position of a simulated sunshield over time for several different orbits,” says Khan.

Two scenarios were promising. In the first scenario, the authors positioned a space station platform at the L1 Lagrange point, the closest point between Earth and the sun where the gravitational forces are balanced. Objects at Lagrange points tend to stay along a path between the two celestial bodies, which is why the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is located at L2, a Lagrange point on the opposite side of the Earth. 

In computer simulations, the researchers shot particles from the platform to the L1 orbit, including the position of Earth, the sun, the moon, and other solar system planets, and tracked where the particles scattered. The authors found that when launched precisely, the dust would follow a path between Earth and the sun, effectively creating shade, at least for a while. The dust was easily blown off course by the solar winds, radiation, and gravity within the solar system. The team concludes that any L1 space station platform would need to create an endless supply of new dust batches to blast into orbit every few days after the initial spray dissipates.

“It was rather difficult to get the shield to stay at L1 long enough to cast a meaningful shadow. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, though, since L1 is an unstable equilibrium point,” Khan says. “Even the slightest deviation in the sunshield’s orbit can cause it to rapidly drift out of place, so our simulations had to be extremely precise.”

In the second scenario, the authors shot lunar dust from a platform on the surface of the moon towards the sun. They found that the inherent properties of lunar dust were just right to effectively work as a sunshield. The simulations tested how lunar dust scattered along various courses until they found excellent trajectories aimed toward L1 that served as an effective sunshield. 

The results were welcome news, the team says, because much less energy is needed to launch dust from the moon than Earth. This is important because the amount of dust required for a solar shield is large, comparable to the output of a big mining operation here on Earth. 

Kenyon says, “It is astounding that the Sun, Earth, and Moon are in just the right configuration to enable this kind of climate mitigation strategy.”

Just a moonshot?

The authors stress that their new study only explores the potential impact of this strategy, rather than evaluate whether these scenarios are logistically feasible.

“We aren’t experts in climate change, or the rocket science needed to move mass from one place to the other. We’re just exploring different kinds of dust on a variety of orbits to see how effective this approach might be. We do not want to miss a game changer for such a critical problem,” says Bromley.  

One of the biggest logistical challenges — replenishing dust streams every few days — also has an advantage. The sun’s radiation naturally disperses the dust particles throughout the solar system, meaning the sunshield is temporary and particles do not fall onto Earth. The authors assure that their approach would not create a permanently cold, uninhabitable planet, as in the science fiction story, “Snowpiercer.” 
 

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About the Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian

The Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian is a collaboration between Harvard and the Smithsonian designed to ask—and ultimately answer—humanity's greatest unresolved questions about the nature of the universe. The Center for Astrophysics is headquartered in Cambridge, MA, with research facilities across the U.S. and around the world.

THE LANCET: No new COVID-19 variants have emerged during China's recent outbreak, analysis of cases in Beijing suggests

Peer-Reviewed Publication

THE LANCET

Peer-reviewed / Observational study / People

  • Genome analysis of 413 new COVID-19 infections in Beijing spanning the time period when China lifted its most strict pandemic control policies suggests all were caused by existing strains.
  • More than 90% of local infections in Beijing between November 14 and December 20, 2022,
  •  involved Omicron sub-variants BA.5.2 or BF.7. Imported cases during the same period mostly involved different variants to those dominant in Beijing.
  • The authors say the findings can be considered a snapshot of the current state of the pandemic in China.

No new COVID-19 variants have emerged in China during the recent surge in infections since the country ended its zero-COVID policy, according to an analysis of cases in Beijing.

The study, published in The Lancet, suggests two existing Omicron sub-variants, BA.5.2 and BF.7 – among the most dominant variants in Beijing during 2022 – accounted for more than 90% of local infections between November 14 and December 20 2022. 

The authors say the results represent a snapshot of the pandemic in China, due to the characteristics of Beijing’s population and the circulation of highly transmissible COVID-19 strains there. 

China is widely reported to have ended its zero-Covid strategy on 7 December 2022. Since the lifting of these strict COVID-19 control policies – which included targeted lockdowns, mass testing and quarantine – surging case numbers have raised concerns that new variants could emerge. In the three years since COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, the emergence of variants such as Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron has caused multiple waves of cases around the world.

Since December 2019, the study authors routinely collected respiratory samples from imported and local COVID-19 cases in Beijing, and randomly selected samples for analysis. There had been no persistent local transmissions reported in Beijing before December 2022. 

In this latest study, the authors analysed COVID-19 samples detected in Beijing in 2022. Genome sequences were generated using rapid, large-scale sequencing technology, and their evolutionary history and population dynamics analysed using existing high quality COVID-19 sequences. 

From a total of 2,881 high quality sequences included in the study, 413 new samples were randomly selected and sequenced between November 14 – when infections began to increase sharply – and December 20 2022. Of these, 350 were local cases and 63 were imported. Imported cases came from 63 countries and regions.

Analysis of the 413 new sequences revealed they all belong to existing, known COVID-19 strains. The dominant strain in Beijing after November 14 2022 was BF.7, which accounted for 75.7% of local infections. Another Omicron sub-variant, BA5.2, was responsible for 16.3% of local cases. 

The populations of both BA5.2 and BF.7 in Beijing increased after November 14, 2022. The effective size of the BA.5.2 population did not change substantially between November 14 and 25, 2022, but increased sharply around November 30, 2022. The rise coincided with an increased number of BA.5.2 infections around November 30, 2022. The population of BF.7 increased gradually from November 14, 2022. 

Lead author Professor George Gao, of the Institute of Microbiology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said: “Given the impact that variants have had on the course of the pandemic, it was important to investigate whether any new ones emerged following the recent changes to China’s COVID-19 prevention and control policies. Our analysis suggests two known Omicron sub-variants – rather than any new variants – have chiefly been responsible for the current surge in Beijing, and likely China as a whole. However, with ongoing large-scale circulation of COVID-19 in China, it is important we continue to monitor the situation closely so that any new variants that might emerge are found as early as possible.” [1]

The authors acknowledge some limitations to their study. While only data in Beijing in 2022, rather than the Chinese mainland, was analysed, the authors say the data is representative of the country as a whole. The number of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in December 2022 was unavailable because mandatory large-scale testing ended, suggesting the true number of infections is underestimated, leading to a degree of sampling bias in the dataset. More sampling is required to study the transmissibility and pathogenicity of Omicron sub-variants. The evolutionary rate of the virus was assumed to be constant during the initial stage of the outbreak, though it is possible this could vary depending on the variant.

Writing in a linked Comment, Professor Wolfgang Preiser and Dr Tongai Maponga of the University of Stellenbosch, South Africa, who were not involved in the study, said: “It is welcome to see this much-needed data from China. It is certainly reassuring that this study yielded no evidence for novel variants but not a surprise: the surge is amply explained by the abrupt cessation of effective control measures.” However, they urge caution in drawing conclusions about China as a whole based on data from Beijing, saying: “The SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiological profile in one region of a vast and densely populated country cannot be extrapolated to the entire country. In other regions of China other evolutionary dynamics might unfold, possibly including animal species that could become infected by human beings and “spill back” a further evolved virus.”

NOTES TO EDITORS

This study was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. It was conducted by researchers from the Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. 

[1] Quote direct from author and cannot be found in the text of the Article.

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