Niger is Africa's fastest growing country—how to feed 25 million more people in 30 years

by Kayenat Kabir, The Conversation

Fulani herdsman. Credit: Kayenat Kabir

Niger, a landlocked country in the dry Sahel region of Africa, struggles to feed its 25 million people. It currently ranks 115th out of 121 countries on the Global Hunger Index, and the number of people not getting enough to eat has increased from about 13% of the population in 2014 to 20% in 2022.

Things could deteriorate even further as Niger confronts a "perfect storm." The country has one of the highest population growth rates in the world, with few signs of slowing down. Its fertility rate—at an average of seven children per women—is the highest in the world.

Added to this, most of the country is infertile. Two-thirds of its area is located in the Sahara desert. Most of the country's agricultural land lies in a narrow band close to the Nigerian border in the south and is being encroached on by the desert.

Niger's population also has among the lowest human capital indexes, which among other things mean people cannot earn enough to afford to buy food. This challenge is even greater given the recent shift in budgetary priorities away from social development and towards national security due to growing instability in the Sahel region.

To make matters worse, Niger is one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change. It has high exposure to heat and a low ability to adapt to changes in climate, like increasingly unpredictable rainfall. This will negatively affect crop yields in a country where less than 1% of the cultivated land is irrigated.

It's projected that an additional two million Nigeriens will be pushed into undernourishment by 2050 by the effects of climate change on crop yields and because agricultural workers (around 75% of the total employed population) will struggle to work in the heat.

So, how will Niger go from feeding 25 million people today to its projected population of 50 million people in 2050?

In a recently published study, my colleagues and I wanted to figure out how to achieve this—or get as close as possible.

Increasing food security

We identified three interventions to address food availability:

• better food supply, with accelerated investments in agricultural research and development

• less food demand through slower population growth

• global market integration.

But what should take priority to get the best outcome?

We created a model (which we called SIMPLE-Niger) to figure this out. It used data from various sources, including household and farm surveys and satellite images.

Based on our model simulations, we argue that unless fertility rates fall, rapid population growth and climate change setbacks are likely to outpace possible advancements in agricultural productivity.

When it comes to the supply side—what's put into agriculture—interventions and spending must focus on higher farm productivity such as climate smart research investments, and farmers' access to and adoption of new technologies.

Greater integration into regional markets will also help to combat undernourishment. It will make food commodities more accessible and available through more trade and better regional price integration (the effect of price in one market on another market).

Here's how we got to these conclusions.

Integration, investment and human capital

As dire as the food security situation sounds, there are signs of improvement. We believe that further interventions in these areas are crucial to improve the situation.

Agricultural productivity has been increasing, driven by:

• new crop varieties

• local soil and water conservation technologies like zai pits (small, shallow pits in the ground, which keep plant roots damper)

• farmer-managed natural regenerations in which farmers use their indigenous knowledge to select and promote the natural regeneration of trees and shrubs.

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement is expected to lead to greater market integration and more trade in goods and services in the agri-food sector, from surplus to deficit regions.

Niger's informal and formal non-tariff barriers are high, however.

The country will need improvements in trade and transport-related infrastructure, especially temperature-controlled logistics for agricultural products, ease of arranging competitively priced shipments, and efficiency in customs procedure. While designing interventions, it is also important to remember that a large share of the trade happens through informal cross-border trade.

There must also be additional investments in local agricultural research and dissemination, and to transform this into agricultural productivity growth. The adoption rate for new technology and varieties is low among Nigerien farmers, even by Sahelian standards. Improved support for local researchers, enhanced extension services, private sector partnerships for technology dissemination, and input market access can boost adoption of new technologies by farmers, which will accelerate recent productivity growth.

Likely setbacks

Agricultural productivity growth will likely be outpaced, however, by population growth and climate change setbacks. This means the population growth rate must fall.

Funds must be allocated towards family planning and health. But fertility is a deeply political and challenging issue, which makes allocation of funds for these purposes difficult.

In fact, the desired family rate is higher than the current family rate, meaning men and women want more children than they currently have. It's important to consider the socioeconomic context in designing family planning programs in Niger.

A big win would be to increase investments in women's education and labor force participation. It's widely known that this would empower women to make birthing decisions freely and responsibly. Keeping girls in school also reduces the chance of child marriage, which is both a cause and consequence of pregnancy in adolescence. Investing in education is also linked to better food and nutrition security.

Worth the investment

These steps could get sidelined in a region that is witnessing growing instability. But history tells us that a young and growing population facing food insecurity and unemployment can be a breeding ground for more instability.

Ensuring food security for Niger's rapidly growing young population is just as important for its national security.

Provided by The Conversation 

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

A sustainable path to eliminate hunger in africa

UN raises $1.2 bn to help millions in war-torn Yemen

27/02/2023 

Geneva (AFP) – The United Nations raised around $1.2 billion on Monday to deliver aid this year to millions of people going hungry in war-ravaged Yemen, amid hopes that a fragile truce could foster a lasting peace.

The figure was far short of the $4.3 billion sought from donors at a pledging conference in Geneva, but the UN hoped the figure could reach $2 billion by the end of the week.

It was the seventh donor conference for Yemen in seven years -- but the UN hopes the next such gathering could focus on rebuilding the broken country rather than staving off hunger.

"We've had 31 pledges announced today and these pledges come to just about $1.2 billion," UN humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths said in closing the conference.

"If we can make it $2 billion by the weekend, that would be great."

The UN says more than 21.7 million people -- two-thirds of Yemen's population -- need humanitarian assistance this year. Its appeal aims to reach the 17.3 million most vulnerable among them.

Erin Hutchinson, the Norwegian Refugee Council's Yemen chief, said the world had "abandoned Yemen at this crucial crossroads" by pledging only a quarter of the amount needed.

"This is woefully inadequate and gives the signal that some humans are less valuable than others," she said.

Many countries demanded an end to Huthi-imposed rules that force women, including female aid workers, to be accompanied by male guardians, hampering the delivery of aid.

'Measure of hope'

Yemen has been wracked by a devastating war since 2014, pitting Iran-backed Huthi rebels against the internationally recognised government, supported by a Saudi-led military coalition.

Since then, the war has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, both directly and indirectly, and pushed the nation to the brink of famine.

A truce that began on April 2 last year expired on October 2, but many of its provisions have held.

"After years of death, displacement, destruction, starvation and suffering, the truce delivered real dividends for people," UN chief Antonio Guterres told the conference.

"We have a real opportunity this year to change Yemen's trajectory and move towards peace."
UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths

Yemeni Prime Minister Maeen Abdulmalek Saeed added: "Ending the humanitarian crisis starts with ending the war."

Last year, the UN raised more than $2.2 billion to enable aid agencies to reach nearly 11 million people across the country every month.

The humanitarian organisation CARE said the 2023 pledges meant aid agencies "will be forced to reduce the number of people reached" once again.
'Glimmer of hope': Blinken

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Yemen's economy and institutions had been pushed to the brink, as Washington pledged $444 million.

"Despite the dire humanitarian conditions, there is a glimmer of hope as Yemen is experiencing the best opportunities for peace in years," he said in a statement.

"The parties now have the chance to end this war."

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told reporters in Geneva that the world "keeps closing its eyes far too often" on the "humanitarian catastrophe" unfolding in Yemen, as Berlin pledged 120 million euros ($127 million).

Griffiths hoped it would be the last such conference.

"The Yemeni crisis has gone on far too long, punishing millions of innocent people who didn't want it in the first place, and deserve so much better," he said.

Robert Mardini, head of the International Committee of the Red Cross, said each year that passed made post-conflict recovery tougher.

"Even if a lasting settlement were found, humanitarian needs would remain high for years to come," he said.

Yemen Pledging Falls Far Short of What is Needed to Help Yemeni People Survive

Published 27. Feb 2023

Yemen Humanitarian financing

Following today’s High-Level Yemen Pledging Event, held in Geneva, INGOs working in Yemen are deeply concerned over the expected consequences of a major funding shortfall. World leaders pledged less than US$ 1.2 bn for a humanitarian response that requires more than triple that amount.

The reduced funding to help the Yemeni people access protection, food, shelter and other lifesaving services comes at a critical time. Last year’s six-month truce brought hope to millions as fighting, civilian casualties and conflict-related displacement decreased significantly. But failure to renew the truce after it expired last October means that the situation remains extremely volatile, and the humanitarian situation remains dire with no significant decrease in the number of people in need.

“The humanitarian crisis in Yemen is one of the worst and most complex in the world, affecting millions of civilians who are in urgent need of assistance. Without adequate funding, it will be impossible to provide life-saving assistance to those who need it the most. We cannot allow the people of Yemen to suffer any longer.”

“I urge the international community to recommit to their promises and to work together to ensure that the needs of the Yemeni people are met with the urgency and scale that the situation demands. Ending the conflict is key to reduce the impact of the crisis on Yemeni people and the international community must double diplomacy to achieve a comprehensive and lasting peace,” said Action for Humanity Country Director Mohammed Bahashwan.

While donors at the conference clearly highlighted the seriousness of the humanitarian situation in Yemen, the signatories would like to emphasize the complexity of reaching a real political solution to Yemen’s long conflict and the role that addressing extreme levels of humanitarian need will play in that process.

Humanitarian actors have assessed that US$ 4.3 billion is needed to help more than 17.3 million Yemenis survive. Although fighting has reduced in many places, the economic crisis continues to push up prices of food and basic goods and services, making them increasingly out of the reach of many. Without steady sources of income, families remain dependent on humanitarian aid.

Over 4.5 million people have been forced to flee their homes, making Yemen the sixth largest displacement crisis in the world. Less than half of health facilities are currently reported to be functioning, with about 11 percent fully or partially damaged due to the conflict. There was an increase of an estimated 280,000 out-of-school children in 2022. Additionally, civilian victims of explosive remnants of war increased by 160 percent, even while the truce held.

Last year’s humanitarian response was only 52.5 percent funded and INGOs fear a continued downward trend will require aid agencies to further reduce life-saving assistance.

The gap in funding at this critical time will have not only an immediate negative impact on the lives of millions of civilians in Yemen, but on the long-term stability of the country. INGOs call on the international community to demonstrate its continued commitment to the people of Yemen by increasing the pledges towards the humanitarian response in the coming months.

Signatories:

ACTED/ Action Contre la Faim/Action for Humanity/ADRA/CARE/Catholic Relief Services/Center for Civilians in Conflict/Danish Refugee Council/ Diakonie Katastrophenhilfe/Direct Aid/ Handicap International - Humanity and Inclusion/Human Appeal/ Humanitarian Aid & Development Org/International Rescue Committee/Intersos/Islamic Help UK/ MEDGLOBAL/Mercy Corps/Norwegian People’s Aid/Norwegian Refugee Council/Oxfam/People in Need/Polish Humanitarian Action/Première Urgence – Aide Médicale Internationale/READ Foundation/Relief International/Saferworld/Save the Children/Search for Common Ground/ SOLIDARITÉS INTERNATIONAL/Vison Hope International/War Child Canada/War Child UK/ZOA

For more information, please contact:

Ahmad Baroudi, Media and Communications Manager, Save the Children, ahmad.baroudi@savehechildren.org,

Nicola Banks: Advocacy Manager, Action for Humanity, nicola.banks@actionforhumanity.org

TOOK LONG ENOUGH
Nestle shutting down all factories in Myanmar amid post-coup turmoil

Swiss food giant is the latest foreign company to exit the Southeast Asian country after 2021 military coup that has caused political and economic instability in the country.

Myanmar's economy has been battered by the fallout of the 2021 coup, with more than a million people losing their jobs. (Reuters)

Swiss food giant Nestle will halt all production in Myanmar, a spokesperson has said, the latest firm to draw back from the country after a military coup two years ago.

The Southeast Asian nation has been in turmoil since the military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's government, sparking widespread unrest and tanking the economy.

A raft of foreign companies has since exited the market, including oil giants TotalEnergies and Chevron, and Norwegian telecoms operator Telenor.

Due to the "current economic situation" Nestle's factory in the commercial hub Yangon, as well as its head office, would "cease operations", a spokesperson said on Monday, without giving a timeframe.

Nestle sells Nescafe instant coffee, Maggi noodles and Milo chocolate malt beverage in Myanmar.

A Myanmar firm would instead market and distribute Nestle products from Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, the spokesperson said.

"We will do all we can to support everyone affected by this decision," they added.

The spokesperson said there were 138 employees at Nestle's Myanmar factory and head office.

READ MORE: Myanmar landmine casualties surge two years after coup: UNICEF

Coup battered the economy

Investors piled into Myanmar after the military relaxed its iron grip in 2011, paving the way for democratic reforms and economic liberalisation.

The economy has been battered by the fallout of the 2021 coup, with more than a million people losing their jobs, according to the International Labour Organization.

The putsch sparked renewed fighting with ethnic rebel groups as well as dozens of "People's Defence Forces" that have sprung up to fight against the junta.

More than 3,000 people have been killed in the military's crackdown on dissent since it seized power and more than 19,000 have been arrested, according to a local monitoring group.

READ MORE: ASEAN ministers call on Myanmar junta to implement peace plan

Has the earthquake awakened a new Syrian spirit?

The tragic earthquake in Turkey and Syria has led to mass support efforts and solidarity amongst Syrians, Nour Hariri considers whether this will lead to a revival in revolutionary action

Yasmin, 30, covers her neighbour's children after their home was destroyed during a 7.8-magnitude earthquake that hit the region in the town of Jindires, Syria, 14 February 2023. [GETTY]

Perspectives

Nour Hariri
27 Feb, 2023

“The earthquake was more terrifying than all the killing, bombing, and displacement that we have witnessed in the last twelve years,” uttered many who survived the recent tragedy. People also expressed that despite the tremendous catastrophe, “earthquakes remain more merciful than political tyranny”.

The earthquake in Syria and Turkey has raised the age-old debate about whether focus should be on the natural or the political when it comes to disasters of this scale. There are certainly some who prefer to focus on the ecological aspects in order to distract from an ongoing or prospective political crisis, and then those who do the opposite. There are even those who take a different position altogether and argue that there is no space to consider either or, “it is time for humane and humanitarian action.”

There is no doubt that each of these arguments is limited, largely because it is no longer possible to speak of politics without speaking of nature, and vice versa.

''Through the traumatic event, an unprecedented social solidarity has been birthed, comprised of organised collective action, more engagement in cooperative solutions, massive donation campaigns, and the establishment of volunteering groups. Their ability to overcome challenges, rescue the survivors, help the injured, rebuild life after the earthquake is astonishing.''

Indeed, it is impossible to have any discussion about natural disasters such as earthquakes, that collapse entire buildings, without referring to the construction of the buildings. This makes the discussion an inherently political one because it brings into question infrastructure, corruption, and disaster management policies.

As a group of French scientists specialising in the study of natural disasters pointed out, one should no longer speak of “natural catastrophe” because whilst unpreventable natural hazards exist, it is social vulnerability that transforms them into catastrophes.

It is clear that, despite the sorrow and fear that the earthquake brought about for Syrians, an exceptional interaction with this event is taking place amongst the people. An emergence of a ‘new Syrian’ subjectivity is looming on the horizon, a subjectivity that is still stuttering in a new language, crawling on new ground, but clear in its aims.

Through the traumatic event, an unprecedented social solidarity has been birthed, comprised of organised collective action, more engagement in cooperative solutions, massive donation campaigns, and the establishment of volunteering groups. Their ability to overcome challenges, rescue the survivors, help the injured, rebuild life after the earthquake is astonishing.

From information gathering, to reaching the affected areas and helping the families of the victims, Syrians are supporting each other in ways that they haven’t in years. People are also encouraging each other to stand strong and thousands of doctors, nurses, volunteers are working on the ground to help reduce the pain of the injured.

Around the world they are raising their voices, and in saying “no” once again, to all corruption, oppression, and exploitation.

Slavoj Žižek explains that what elevates a catastrophe to the status of an ‘event’, is a rupture in the continuity of history resulting in a revolutionary change and a transformation of subjectivity. Could the violent earthquake become the event that ruptures the flow of the last 12 years? Could the earthquake be an event that engenders a new Syrian subjectivity?

Žižek asserts that the event uproots the existing relations between symbolic objects and discourses (political, religious, sectarian, and other ideologies), so the gaps within the social symbolic structure appear. In the event, the subjects can abandon the illusory ideological constraints imposed upon them by different political regimes of representation.

The post-traumatic subject finds new solutions to its impasse and new ways of being. In this sense, the post-traumatic Syrian subject is automatically liberated from symbolic constraints, the false political hopes and promises, and the logic of either/or. As we have seen over the past few intense weeks, a new possibility has appeared for Syrians, one that has come out of the impossible.

The newness of this event is not in rejecting a specific political reality and therefore hoping to change it. Such rejection, or in other words the first “no”, took place a long time ago. Rather this ‘newness’ is in the rejection of the coercive possibilities that existed and the entrance into a revolutionary social solidarity.

RELATED

In wake of Turkey's quake, an aftershock of anti-Syrian hate

Voices

Sam Hamad

The new Syrian subject has emerged, full of eagerness to meet, help and rescue the other, and recognise his and her right to life, regardless of political affiliations.

The second “no,” contrary to popular belief that it only comes from a humane place, is political. Whereas the first “no” was an authoritarian moral one coming from above, from a superior ideological authority, this second stems from within, from the suffering body and soul, from the material pain.

In his interpretation of the story of the prophet Abraham who was told to sacrifice his son, Emmanuel Levinas states: “that Abraham obeyed the first voice is astonishing: that he had sufficient distance with respect to that obedience to hear the second voice-that is essential.” Indeed, it was the second voice that prevented Abraham from committing a crime. The Syrians too are in dire need of hearing the second inner voice, emerging from their hearts that have rusted waiting for the return of the detained and disappeared.

Ultimately we are all subjects of loss and rupture. Nevertheless, it is from loss, from hopelessness, from impossibility, that we emerge and act.

As William Stanley Merwin wrote in his poem Place: “On the last day of the world, I would want to plant a tree.” We plant a tree today, even if we are unable to enjoy its fruit tomorrow. We spend hundreds of hours searching under the rubble of buildings for bodies that are likely to be found dead. We do that not only for the distressed people who are waiting for their beloved ones, but also for ourselves.

We live, we cling to the other precisely because life would otherwise be impossible. The earthquake has reminded many who have forgotten this, and maybe it has given birth to a new Syrian spirit, possibly even served as the trigger for a future Syrian revolution.

Nour Hariri is a writer, a translator, and the managing editor of an Arabic Journal for political and cultural studies, based in Berlin. She holds an MA in Philosophy from Goethe University and specializes in philosophy, political theory, and psychoanalysis.

Follow her on Twitter: @nooralhariri1
Join the conversation @The_NewArab.

Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.

Earthquakes and elections in Turkey

JAMnewsIstanbul

On the night of February 5-6, at 04:17 local time, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurred in the city of Marash located in southern Turkey.

Just nine hours after the first tremors, a second earthquake of magnitude 7.6 took place very close to the epicenter, which led to the largest human tragedy in the history of the Republic of Turkey, which also affected Syria.

Poor level of readiness

Though geologist Celal Shenger and prominent specialist Naji Geryur had been warning everyone for years about a possible large earthquake in this region, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the country’s Interior Minister Suleiman Soil had to admit that preparedness for the event was poor.

According to the latest information, more than 44,000 died in the earthquake in Turkey, and about 7,000 more in Syria. The earthquake hit close to the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey.

After the earthquake near the Sea of Marmara in August 1999, in which about 17,000 people died, the requirements for the construction of residential buildings were changed in Turkey, with more plans for anti-earthquake measures. But discussion about corruption in this sector is prominent.
Mixed reactions from politicians

The leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, made tough statements in the first days of the aftermath. In a speech, he declared that he was not going to “stand on par with this government and share the responsibility for what happened.” On the same day, President Erdogan phoned all opposition leaders, but ignored the chairman of the CHP.

Kılıçdaroğlu took it upon himself to call municipalities under the control of his party to help out, although the government had ordered everything be coordinated therewith.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the disaster area. Photo: open sources

According to journalist Altan Sanjar, Kılıçdaroğlu’s attitude in the first hours caused a stir within the party. Some advisers asked the CHP chairman to wait a few days, because “such aggression may cause an unexpected reaction.” But Kılıçdaroğlu went ahead anyway.

Meral Akshener, the chairman of the Good Party (İYİ Parti), reacted a little differently to what was happening. In a first statement after the earthquake, she stressed that “today we will be silent and listen to the voice of the state.”

Meanwhile, the former leader of the Kurdish HDP party, Selahattin Demirtas, who is under arrest, expressed support for the position of Kılıçdaroğlu. Through his lawyer he released a statement in which he commented on the CHP leader’s statement with the words “strong solidarity and strong political will.”

But most tension in the political life of the country was introduced by President Erdogan in a speech after the quake in which he said the following: “everything that is said and done today we will put in our notebook, and when the time comes, we will open it.”

Will the catastrophe in Turkey change the country's position in the South Caucasus? Comment from Baku

Will the recent tragedy affect Turkey’s attitude towards regional and global politics?

Prohibitions amid natural disaster

In the midst of rescue efforts in the regions affected by the quake, the Turkish government decided to close access to Twitter. The most widely used social network in the country served as a means of coordination for the rescue teams, and there were many cases of people trapped under the rubble tweeting their location.

The mayor of Istanbul, oppositionist Ekrem Imamoglu, said: “On such a tragic day, the president should not impose bans just because of criticism against him. Turkey needs leaders who are not afraid of criticism and who are confident in themselves.”

The most popular internet forum in Turkey with 25 years of history, Ekşi Sözlük (The Sour Dictionary), was also blocked at the behest of the government.
When are elections?

Another acute issue after the earthquake was the timing of the elections. Officially, they were scheduled for June 18 last year, but Erdogan and his coalition ally Devlet Bahceli expressed a desire to move the elections to May 18. But so far there has been no final decision.

Erdogan’s speech in the disaster zone. Photo: open sources

Bulent Arinc, a member of the ruling party, who worked as speaker of parliament for five years and another six as deputy prime minister, said the elections should be postponed for one year.

According to the Turkish Constitution, elections can be postponed only in wartime. To which Arinc replied that “the Constitution is not an commandment in the Koran, and it can be changed.”

Erdogan is said to have expressed bewilderment at Arinc’s speech. And Erdogan’s ally in the power coalition, Devlet Bahceli, specifically rejected Arinc’s idea: “We are not afraid of elections, and we choose democracy.”

According to political analyst Ozgun Emre Koç, Arinc’s speech was actually ordered by Erdogan, and the president only wanted to know the public’s reaction to such a proposal.


Bulent Arinc is one of the most liberal members of the ruling AKP party, and stands at its origins alongwith Ahmet Davutoglu and Ali Babacan, who have already left the party. After 2017, when the AKP-MPR coalition was formed, Arinc was removed from all positions within the party.

Earlier, Arinc called for the release of Selahattin Demirtas and Osman Kavala, who were recognized as political prisoners according to the verdicts of the European Court of Human Rights.

Protests across Turkey were also sparked by the government’s decision to switch all higher education institutions to distance learning due to university dorms being reserved for those who lost their homes in the earthquake.

World bank estimates Turkey quake damage at $34 bln

A general view of damage following a deadly earthquake, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu take a helicopter tour of earthquake stricken areas of Hatay Province, Turkey February 19, 2023. (Reuters)

AFP
Published: 27 February ,2023

The devastating February 6 earthquake and aftershocks that hit southern Turkey have caused damage worth more than $34 billion in the country, the World Bank said on Monday.

The amount is equivalent to four percent of Turkey's GDP in 2021, the Washington-based institution said, adding that the estimate does not account for the costs of reconstruction that were “potentially twice as large,” a statement said.

The estimate also does not take into account the damage caused in northern Syria, also particularly affected by the earthquakes, with a World Bank estimate of the costs there to be released on Tuesday.

The World Bank warned that the continuing aftershocks are likely to increase the total amount of damage caused by the disaster.

“This disaster serves as a reminder of Turkey's high risk to earthquakes and of the need to enhance resilience in public and private infrastructure,” said Humberto Lopez, the World Bank Country Director for Turkey.

The World Bank also estimates that 1.25 million people have been made temporarily homeless due to damage to residential buildings.

It added that direct damage to residential buildings accounted for 53 percent of the estimate, with 28 percent of damage seen in non-residential buildings and the rest in infrastructure such as roads and bridges.

China Lithium Probe Shuts Down a Tenth of Global Supply

Bloomberg News
Mon, February 27, 2023 

China Lithium Probe Shuts Down a Tenth of Global Supply


(Bloomberg) --

China’s lithium industry is reeling as its top production hub — responsible for around a 10th of the world’s supply — faces sweeping closures amid a government probe of environmental infringements.

The crackdown in Yichun, Jiangxi province, follows a local lithium frenzy over the past year as miners raced to feed rampant demand for the battery material — and to benefit from record global prices. Now, they’re grappling with a close-up inspection by environment officials sent from Beijing.

Ore-processing operations in Yichun have been ordered to stop as investigators probe alleged violations at lithium mines, Yicai newspaper reported. That threatens somewhere between 8% and 13% of global supply, according to various analyst estimates, although it’s unclear for how long the immediate shutdowns will last.

The probe in China injects a big dose of uncertainty into a lithium market that’s seeing prices cool — bringing some relief to EV manufacturers — as more global output emerges. Jiangxi province was expected to be a major source of extra supply, from a lithium-bearing mineral known as lepidolite.

“This supervision may mean that the inspection and control over lepidolite mining in China will be more stringent in the future,” said Susan Zou, analyst at Rystad Energy.

Companies with operations in Yichun include major battery manufacturers Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. and Gotion High-Tech Co., whose shares both fell more than 1% on Monday. Neither firm responded to calls and emails for comment.

Mining Boom

All lepidolite mining in Yichun aside from those by a state-owned company have been suspended, but refineries are still operational, Dennis Ip and Leo Ho, analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets, said.

Global lithium prices soared to a record high last year as demand from China’s booming electric-vehicle industry outstripped production. It’s the kind of high-profit, high-demand environment that typically encourages miners to skirt regulations in any commodity market.

How a Battery Metals Squeeze Puts EV Future at Risk: QuickTake

Some companies had already been targeted for infringements, including incidents of pollution, over the past year. This is a much wider crackdown, and involves officials from central government departments including the Ministry of Natural Resources.

Healthy Development

The Beijing officials will mainly look at violations at lithium mines and seek to guide the “healthy development” of the industry, according to the Yicai report. It will largely target those mining without permits or with expired licenses, it said.

According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the Chinese car industry’s demand for lithium has fallen by more than half in recent months, a dramatic reversal that will drive a further slump in the market. Prices in China have dropped more than 30% from last year’s peak.

A month-long mining halt in Yichun would reduce lithium output by an amount equivalent to around 13% of the world’s total, analysts including Bai Junfei at Citic Securities Co. wrote in a note on Monday. Rystad Energy, a consultancy, estimated the amount at 8%.

“At present, the market speculation is that the probe may stop after the two sessions in China next month,” Rystad’s Zou said, referring to the annual parliamentary meetings due early March.

Lithium Shares

Lithium producers in North America gained Monday morning, with Albemarle Corp. rising as much as 2.9% and Livent Corp. advancing 2.6%.

Analysts said the shutdown of the lithium production hub in China may do little to help prices of the metal rebound from a recent decline, at least in the near term.

“Any mine would typically have a stockpile of ore in place, so as long as the refineries are operating, you aren’t likely to see any whipsaw in lithium pricing,” said Chris Berry, president of House Mountain Partners, an industry consultancy. “Should these mines be halted for months, then this becomes a different story.”

--With assistance from Alfred Cang and Jason Rogers.

Beijing investigating illegal mining activities in Chinese lithium hub, report says

PUBLISHED SUN, FEB 26 2023

Workers are seen at the production line of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EV) at a factory near Shanghai, China.

Reuters

China’s central government has sent a working group to probe illegal mining in the country’s lithium hub Yichun, financial news outlet Yicai reported on Sunday.

Yicai, citing sources, said the probe comes amid a “shutdown and rectification” of lithium producers in Yichun, a small city in southern Jiangxi province known by some as Asia’s lithium capital.

News of the probe follows a Yichun local government announcement on Friday that it was cracking down on criminal activity in the lithium battery industry, such as unlicensed and environmentally damaging mining.

Yichun has 1.1 million tons of lithium oxide reserves and accounts for 12% of global output, according to the South China Morning Post.

One lithium analyst, who declined to be named, told Yicai that the industry optimistically estimates that the shutdown will last for about a month.

Yichun currently produces between 10,000 tons and 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate per month, it reported. “If production is suspended for a month, the affected scale may account for about 10% of the global market,” the analyst said.

Lithium batteries are a key component in electric vehicles, demand for which has grown rapidly in recent years as climate-conscious consumers snap up cars with electric powertrains amid soaring fuel prices.

Yichun’s rich lithium reserves have led to a rapid expansion of the city’s mining industry that has brought large tax revenues to the local government.

But the industry has also been plagued by over-mining and under-regulation, leading to environmental issues such as local water sources being polluted with thallium, a toxic metal.

The world’s largest battery maker CATL is one of many Chinese conglomerates that own assets in Yichun.

Last December several companies in the city’s lithium industry halted production as the local government investigated the water quality of a river that supplies residents.

DRONE WAR

Russia-Ukraine war: How the conflict altered defence ties in the Middle East

Regional heavyweights Iran and Turkey have provided drones and other forms of weapons to both sides in the conflict

A drone during a military exercise in an undisclosed location

 in Iran, on 24 August 2022 (Reuters)

By Paul Iddon
Published date: 24 February 2023 

It's been a year since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, and Europe's biggest conflict since the end of the Second World War has had enormous ramifications for the Middle East.

Since the fighting erupted last February, Russia has expanded its military-technical relations with Iran to an unprecedented degree, and this could have significant strategic repercussions for the broader region.

Additionally, two major Middle Eastern powers, Turkey and Iran, have actively armed the two sides of this European war with their homegrown military drones.

Russia-Ukraine war: Seven ways it shaped the Middle East and North Africa

Read More »

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company Rane, told Middle East Eye that the conflict had created two main dynamics.

"A serious questioning of the reliability of Russian military equipment versus Nato equipment, given how poorly many of Russia's high-end systems have performed in Ukraine, and a tightening of Iran-Russia military development."

In addition, western-leaning Middle Eastern states can no longer consider Russia a viable "backup" for their defence needs, compared to the United States.

"Not only is that equipment potentially not as efficient as they want, but ties with Russia will put them at risk of western sanctions," Bohl said.

"There is also an open question of how well wartime Russia can maintain defence exports when so much equipment is needed in Ukraine."
Middle East arming a European war

Before the war, Turkey sold Ukraine approximately 20 Bayraktar TB2 drones. Since the invasion, Ankara has more than doubled that, selling Kyiv at least another 50.

Regional heavyweight Iran has supplied Russia with hundreds of cheap Shahed-type loitering munitions (single-use, explosive-laden drones) that Moscow has used against Ukraine's electricity grid. Tehran consistently denies providing Russia with any drones since the outbreak of the war.

Iran and Turkey also have plans to build factories to produce their drones locally in Russia and Ukraine.

Bohl described Ankara and Tehran's supply of drones for this conflict as "unprecedented in modern history. Typically, Europe comes to the Middle East rather than the other way around," he said. "But while that's notable from a historical standpoint, the drones being supplied are just part of the array of weapons systems being used to fuel the war."

'The war in Ukraine is a showroom for Iran and Turkey'
- Nicholas Heras, New Lines Institute

Despite Iranian drones wreaking havoc on Ukraine's infrastructure and Turkish TB2s giving Kyiv some tactical advantages, Bohl pointed out that neither system has proven itself as a strategic game changer.

"Rather, with the war now bogged down in sluggish, World War 1-style battles, drones are just part of the strategic dynamics of both sides, and no more likely on their own to contribute to strategic changes than the deployment of any other single weapon system," he said.

Nevertheless, Ankara and Tehran believe that having their homegrown drones participate in this modern conventional war will prove beneficial.

Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at Washington think tank the New Lines Institute, says the big benefit for Iran is the opportunity to field test its weapons system in a war scenario.

"The Iranians will be able to take the lessons they learn from the Russian experience in Ukraine to apply them in the battlefield against Israel and in the scenario of an Iranian conflict with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia that have advanced anti-air weapons systems," he told MEE.

"The war in Ukraine is a showroom for Iran and Turkey."

Russia and Iran

One of the most significant strategic outcomes of the Ukraine war for the Middle East has been the deepening strategic relationship between Russia and Iran, exemplified by Iran supplying drones to Russia amid reported Russian shortages of precision-guided munitions and missiles.

In December 2022, the White House said Russia offered Iran "an unprecedented level of military and technical support that is transforming their relationship into a full-fledged defence partnership". It also warned that the expected Russian supply of Su-35s to Iran at some point in 2023 "will significantly strengthen Iran's air force relative to its neighbours".

"Russo-Iranian military cooperation is quite notable in that it's the emergence of a more coherent strategic military bloc between the two countries," Bohl said.

It is likely the two countries will continue to develop ties in drone and ballistic missile technologies, and likely also to cooperate on ways to evade western sanctions to smuggle in western technology for these programmes, Bohl added.


'The level of cooperation between Iran and Russia is indeed unprecedented'

- James Devine, Mount Allison University

On the other hand, it is unlikely Iran will deploy any significant expeditionary force to Ukraine due to ongoing domestic protests, and it's equally unlikely that Russia will become an overt guarantor of Iranian security.

Russia also would not welcome the prospect of Iran developing nuclear weapons, regardless of whether or not Tehran is a strategic partner.

"So, for now, it will be an alliance of drones and missiles - an alliance of asymmetric - rather than something akin to the close cooperation of Nato," said Bohl.

Nevertheless, such cooperation remains problematic for the Gulf states and Israel, especially given the latter's covert anti-Iran campaign.

"The level of cooperation between Iran and Russia is indeed unprecedented," James Devine, associate professor in the department of politics and international relations at Mount Allison University, in New Brunswick, told Middle East Eye.

"In 1988, Ayatollah Khomeini stated that Iran should align neither East nor West, but instead maintain its independence," he said. "Since then, Iran has cooperated with Moscow on a number of issues, but there has always been a degree of mistrust between the two sides and there were limits to which the two cooperated.

"Most importantly, perhaps, Iran never let itself get too close to Russia," Devine said. "In practice, Iranian policy was always more East than West, but Tehran always kept some ties to the West, particularly on the European side, and never let itself become a Russian satellite."
Iran: Recalibrating ties?

Since the outbreak of the conflict, this appears to be changing, although the war is not the sole reason.



Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his administration have shown they favour a more eastern-oriented foreign policy since entering office in 2021.

More generally, Raisi and his cabinet have been suspicious of the West and the previous government of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. They were also sceptical about achieving any accommodation with the United States.

Devine pointed out that the faltering Iran nuclear talks have reinforced this tendency, as has the forceful response by the Iranian authorities, condemned by the West, to the internal protests that began in September.

Ukraine war: How the Middle East is becoming Russia's economic lifelineRead More »

By throwing its lot in with Russia in the Ukraine war, Iran seems willing to completely alienate the West, including Europe.

"I think it is not just that there are more arms being sold between the two, or that the level of economic cooperation has increased, it's that Tehran is willing to back Russia in what the West interprets as a direct attack on the liberal world order," Devine said.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen if this is a viable strategy for Tehran in the long term, since there are already voices of dissent from within the Iranian elite.

Devine also noted that the "other side of the eastern equation is problematic for Tehran".

He gave Raisi’s recent trip to China as an example. During that trip, the Iranian president voiced his displeasure at the lack of progress being made in their bilateral relationship, following the 25-year cooperation programme that Iran and China signed in Tehran in March 2021.

"The fact that Iran has recently been in talks with Ukraine suggests that Iran may be trying to recalibrate the balance between East and West, at least a little bit," Devine said.

BACKGROUNDER

Israel judicial overhaul: How protesting tech execs became public enemy number one

Netanyahu is unbothered by dying democracy and human rights violations, but economic damage from 'reforms' has him worried

Members of the Israeli security forces face off with striking tech company workers in Tel Aviv, protesting against the Israeli government's controversial plans to overhaul the judicial system, 24 January 2023 (AFP)

By Lily Galili in Tel Aviv, Israel
Published date: 15 February 2023 

“It’s the economy, stupid.” The iconic slogan Bill Clinton’s strategist coined for his 1992 presidential campaign can be easily applied to the current turbulent situation in Israel.

Drunk on power, the far-right government is easily playing down the dramatic regime change - officially marketed by the government as “judicial reforms” - and the unprecedented wave of mass protests by people terrified by the changing nature of their country.

Authorities couldn't care less about Israel’s dying democracy and the violations of human rights. The only thing they are afraid of is the damage to the economy embedded in the reforms. It scares all involved, but most of all Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who prides himself on being “Mr Economy”, a nickname he earned in the international media for his time as minister of finance in 2003-05.

Though the economy is indeed strong, hundreds of thousands of poor Israeli Jews and Palestinian citizens still struggle to make ends meet.

Israel: 100,000 protest against controversial judicial overhaul

Read More »

Israel exports 165bn shekels ($47bn) annually - with tech responsible for half of that - and gets 456bn shekels ($129bn) income from taxes, but 21 percent of the population lives below the poverty line, according to a National Insurance Institute 2021 report, with the elderly and Palestinians hardest hit. And yet, the "Israeli economy has been highly praised by international economic institutions", according to a recent INSS (Institute for National Security Studies) report.

Not anymore. It took Israelis a few weeks to understand the link between the “judicial reforms” and their impact on the economy.

The other implications were easier to internalise: the end of democracy and pending dictatorship are abstract notions everybody can charge with a meaning of their own. The economy is the hardest to get, until you’re personally hit by its implications. Then it finally sinks in, and suddenly there's no way to control the negative effects snowballing.

Day after day, sometimes just hours apart, names of companies or major investors pulling money out of Israel are being published. And there is no longer a price tag of shame attached to doing so. The leadership without shame has erased that sentiment among its citizens - soon to become its subjects.

Even shaming them for lacking Zionist instincts doesn’t work anymore, coming from a government including many members - such as the minister of national security and finance - who evaded military service or served just a symbolic few months. Israel is a country where military service is still the ultimate proof of loyalty and Zionist dedication. Judging by this criterion, this is the least Zionist government ever, thus one not taken seriously when that card is played.

‘Background noise only’?

Netanyahu sensed it coming before it actually did. He made a targeted effort to put out the fire threatening to break out in a series of interviews with foreign media. He hardly talks to Israeli media, and certainly not about the economy. He talked to CNN and Fox News in lengthy, soothing interviews, promoting supportive articles in the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek written by writers who are fond of him. The message was meant for both the international and the domestic scene. The Israeli economy, he kept insisting, was not only safe, but in fact going to get stronger based on the new judicial reforms - just wait and see.

But nobody waited, neither world economic institutions, nor Israeli companies. In an avalanche gaining momentum by the day, the Israeli economy has become both the central issue and the most powerful weapon in the fight against the regime change imposed by the country’s most far-right, racist, government ever.

The first one to issue a warning was Amir Yaron, the governor of the Bank of Israel. In an urgent meeting he initiated on 25 January, Yaron warned Netanyahu that his government’s sweeping judicial reforms could damage the country’s economy. Like all those who followed, he was swiftly rebuffed.

'It’s my right and my duty to move the money to banks in democratic countries'

- Eynat Guez, CEO of Papaya Global

Five days later, Netanyahu proudly announced that JP Morgan, a global leader in financial services with headquarters in Israel, had claimed the risk to Israel’s economy was low, and that they see the judicial reforms as “background noise only”. In fact, just four days later, on 3 February, JP Morgan issued an official warning about the increasing danger of investing in Israel.

“The judicial reform has raised concerns regarding institutional strength and the investment climate in the country,” the report said. “There may also be a risk to Israel’s sovereign credit rating.”

At the same time, leading Israeli economists - about 300 of them - warned that the proposed reforms would do longterm harm to the Israeli economy. Though many of them were Netanyahu’s former allies - some even his personal appointments - they were immediately labelled as politically motivated, borderline enemies of the state.

Heads of all Israel's major banks met on Thursday with minister of finance Betzalel Smotrich. They warned him they sense first signs of a crisis: tremendous growth in investor enquiries about transfering money to foreign banks. Ten times more people. Smotrich warned them in return on Channel 12 against self-fulfilling their prophecy, adding that he has never seen them at protests against Oslo or disengagement from Gaza.

The seeds of looming economic disaster have already been planted. In an interview with Reuters in January, S&P Global Ratings director Maxim Rybnikov said:"If the announced judicial system changes set a trend for a weakening of Israel's institutional arrangements and existing checks and balances this could in the future present downside risks to the ratings. But we are not there yet.”
The ‘destruction of Israeli tech’

This global climate, combined with domestic unrest, including deadly attacks in East Jerusalem, has had an immediate impact on the Israeli business sector. The same sector that is often tarnished for being detached from the Israeli political and social scene, and labelled as self-serving and self-centred.

Now, with the country’s economy in jeopardy, the business sector is taking centre stage in the struggle. Israeli tech, nicknamed “the locomotive of the Israeli economy”, is now the engine of the mass protest movement. Numerous tech businesses gave staff the day off to protest on Monday, even arranging shuttle buses.

In an op-ed article in the financial Israeli newspaper Calcalist, Adam Fisher, a partner at the Israeli branch of leading American venture capital firm Bessemer, explained that the process has already started: “Since I opened the Israeli branch 17 years ago, we invested $1.5bn in 75 Israeli start-up companies. Now people ask me if foreign investors will pull out their money and leave Israel. That’s the wrong question. In fact, investors will not have to leave Israel - the Israeli entrepreneurs will do it first.

How Israel turned Palestine into a surveillance tech dystopia Read More »

"The investors will follow them. As they see the deterioration towards an authoritarian regime and uncertainty for their businesses, so they will choose to start their companies elsewhere.

“The pullout in the hi-tech industry will be based on individual and personal decisions,” he continued. “Another form of leakage now that Israel enters the age of non-liberalism will be Israeli entrepreneurs starting their businesses in Israel but incorporating them in the United States or in Britain... Such a step will be perceived as cautious, and in fact the investors will demand it.

“Other start-up companies will reverse their status to a subsidiary of an American company and thus divorce themselves from their country of origin and their dependence on the Israeli branch. The legacy of this government will be not only destruction of democracy but also of Israeli hi-tech.”

The first signs of that process are already showing. And with 25 percent of Israeli annual income tax coming from tech companies, the stakes are high.
Tens of millions pulled out

The one to throw the first stone was Eynat Guez, CEO of Papaya Global, a payments platform unicorn. Just like that, in a tweet, she announced her company was to pull its money out of Israel. “Under the upcoming reform, there is no certainty we can conduct business activity out of Israel. It’s a painful, but necessary, step.”

She later explained the move was an answer to a demand posed by her board of directors. “It’s my right and my duty to move the money to banks in democratic countries,” she said. Papaya, established in 2016, has raised over half a billion dollars, mostly from foreign investors. It is one of the most successful tech companies in Israel, with 600 workers worldwide.

Others were quick to follow. Following a similar move by local venture capital fund Disruptive AL, Wiz, a unicorn worth around $6bn, is pulling tens of millions of dollars out of Israeli banks because of the judicial plans. Two weeks before the move, founder Yinon Costica participated in a protest of tech executives who oppose the overhaul.

This is all in a private sector that has survived wars, difficult security situations and economic slowdowns, under the protection of democracy and a strong judicial system. Now both are weakened, if not totally disrupted.

The last one to publicly pull money out of Israel caused a minor uproar because of his surname. Shaul Olmert, co-founder and CEO of Piggy, a content creation startup, is the son of former PM Ehud Olmert, who was once Likud and now stands in ardent opposition to Netanyahu. Shaul has been one of the leading figures in the tech protests against the judicial overhaul. Piggy recently pulled 70 percent of the company's money out of Israel. “It's not meant to harm the country, it’s just the right risk management at this point,” Shaul said.
Enemies of the state

This rational explanation does not work with the fiercest supporters of this government. In several private discussions with Likud supporters, they admit they are worried by what even they perceive as regime change, but hate - and an urge to take revenge - trump all logic.

Tech entrepreneurs and leaders in the business sector who follow financial reasoning - supported by the precedent of similar situations in Poland and Hungary - are now officially enemies of the state. They have replaced those who refuse to serve in the army or in the occupied territories as the worst kind of traitors.

They are portrayed not as victims of the situation but as its real perpetrators. All those who speak in the name of the government are instructed to say that they are in fact the ones creating the panic and the chaos driving investors and money out of Israel.

High-tech company workers block a road as they strike for an hour in Israel's coastal city of Tel Aviv, 24 January 2023 (AFP)

Tom Livne, CEO of Verbit - one of Israel’s most successful tech unicorns - declared on camera recently that he was leaving the country and ceasing to pay taxes in protest over the judicial overhaul. Livne, whose company has been valued at $2bn, urged other tech executives to follow suit. All hell broke loose.

The government is terrified of people who pay tens of millions of dollars in taxes - and companies that pay hundreds of millions - leaving Israel. Disdainful pro-government voices call them “the privileged”. This may be true, but they are also the engine of the Israeli economy. Almost 100,000 of these “privileged” people took a day off - many unpaid - to protest on Monday outside the Israeli parliament, as the Knesset legislative committee passed the first stage of the legal shake-up.

For some it may be the last such day, as the government wants to curb the right to strike. But this is just the beginning of this battle between tech executives and the government. In early February, the CEO of a public company - Arbe Robotics - called on all responsible CEOs to transfer half of their capital abroad to be ready for any scenario. He himself did it a week ago.

“It should not be taken for granted that things will continue as they were,” Ori Hadomi told Calcalist, “and whoever thinks so is delusional. Unfortunately, this apocalyptic vision is becoming a reality much faster than I thought."

Analysis: Netanyahu's balancing act got harder after post-summit violence

By Maayan Lubell

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich arrive to attend a cabinet meeting at the Prime Minister's office in Jerusalem, February 23, 2023. 

REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun/Pool

JERUSALEM, Feb 27 (Reuters) - The U.S.-brokered summit has barely ended with pledges to calm violence and slow Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank when Palestinian homes were set ablaze by Jewish settlers in retaliation to a deadly Palestinian gun ambush.

Hopes for a calming effect of the meeting hosted by Jordan in the Red Sea port of Aqaba and attended by high-level Israeli and Palestinian security officials, faded further when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disavowed any notion of a halt to settlement-building.

"The Aqaba agreement was born dead," read a headline in the largest Palestinian daily, Al-Quds, after footage on social media showed young settlers praying while they watched fires in near Palestinian village Hawara, just hours after two brothers from a nearby settlement were shot dead in their car there.

On Monday, another suspected Palestinian shooting attack in the West Bank critically wounded one person, emergency services said.

The events cast doubt on Netanyahu's ability to walk a diplomatic tightrope between Washington - pushing for a lasting compromise - and his own cabinet that includes hard-line settlers demanding tough action against Palestinian attacks.

Less than a month ago, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Jerusalem reaffirming U.S. support for a two-state solution: independence for the Palestinians in East Jerusalem, Gaza and the West Bank, which they say would be incompatible with Israeli settlements.

If Netanyahu now let violence spiral out of control it would be another, even bigger source of friction with the White House, said Amotz Asa-El, research fellow at the Shalom Hartman research institute.

"If anything like what happened last night resumes and gives Washington reason to suspect that Netanyahu is impotent in handling it, they will talk to him very plainly", said Asa-El, adding that the White House has put pressure Israeli leaders before.

"It's now in his interest to show that he is clamping down on this kind of settler violence."

The U.S. State Department spokesperson condemned both the killing of two Israelis and the settler rampage, in which one Palestinian was killed and more than 100 wounded. The spokesperson stressed "the imperative to immediately de-escalate tensions in words and deeds".

But shortly after a U.S. State Department joint communique said Israel had committed to stop approving new settlement units for four months, Netanyahu said that settlement construction would go on as planned.

"There is not and will not be any freeze," he tweeted in an apparent nod to his hard-line partners.

PRO-SETTLER PARTIES

Palestinians, alarmed since Israel's Nov. 1 election, when Netanyahu started building his coalition government with ultra-nationalist pro-settler parties Jewish Power and Religious Zionism, look to Washington to rein them in.

"The U.S administration, which fosters this government, must end all these crimes," said the spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister who heads Jewish Power, held a special faction meeting at a settler outpost slated for eviction because it was built without government permit.

"The terrorists should be crushed and it is time to go back to targeted killings and to eliminate the leaders of the inciting terrorist organizations," said Ben-Gvir, while calling on Israelis not to "take the law into their own hands."

Palestinian political analyst George Giacaman predicted more violence. "The main battle will be with settlers," he said.

To be effective, the Aqaba agreements would need a follow-up, said Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. envoy to Israel and now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank. Sunday's events, he said, showed that there was "a risk that the pace of deterioration will outstrip the diplomatic efforts to reverse it".

However, Netanyahu's manoeuvring room appears to be shrinking - Ben-Gvir is already issuing political threats, while Religious Zionism leader and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich last week consolidated his civil powers in the West Bank.

So much so, that with Netanyahu's new coalition just eight weeks old, Israeli political commentators already are asking whether the veteran politician can hold it together.

"One can see the Aqaba summit as a parable: the Americans announce that Israel has promised to freeze settlement construction, which Netanyahu then denies. At those exact moments, the Jewish Power and Religious Zionism ministers attack the summit and say it is non-binding," wrote Moran Azulay, of Israel's Ynet news site.

"On the eve of the election Netanyahu was pondering the legacy he will have when he is reelected prime minister. At the moment it appears to be chaos and disintegration."


Reporting by Maayan Lubell, Nidal al-Mughrabi, Ali Sawafta and Rami Amichay; Writing by Maayan Lubell; Editing by Tomasz Janowski

While Israeli and Palestinian officials 'talk', deadly violence continues in the Territories

Senior Israeli and Palestinian officials met yesterday in Jordan, committed to "de-escalation" and the preservation of the holy places. An attack by settlers in Huwara soon shot down the timid opening with more casualties on both sides. Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich denies reports of a settlement "freeze". Netanyahu pushes to impose the death penalty for terrorism.

Jerusalem (AsiaNews) – The spiral of violence continues in the West Bank with the risks of a new intifada in spite of shaky (and so far in vain) attempts to mediate between the parties, like yesterday’s meeting in Jordan between senior Israeli and Palestinian officials.

The latest incident began late yesterday evening, in Huwara, when a mob of Jewish settlers set fire to homes and damaged cars and garbage bins following the death earlier in the day of two young settlers shot while travelling by car near the Palestinian town.

The Israeli government immediately described the incident as "a Palestinian terrorist attack."

Also last evening, a Palestinian man was shot dead when Israeli soldiers and settlers raided Za’tara, a village near Nablus.

In addition to the three deaths, the Huwara incident saw at least 100 cars set alight and 30 homes torched or damaged. Shops and other businesses were also affected.

As a result, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged local settlers to “not take the law into your hands” but “allow the IDF and security forces to do their work”.

Since the end of December, Netanyahu has led Israel’s most right-wing government – some members of his cabinet live in West Bank Jewish settlements or are staunch supporters.

In a statement, some settlement mayors called on residents to let the Israeli military to carry out "a determined and deterrent military operation”.

Reacting to the violence, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas slammed Israel for what he calls “the terrorist acts carried out by settlers under the protection of the occupation forces”.

The latter have in fact multiplied their incursions in the Palestinian territories with brutal results, like last week’s action in Nablus that left 11 people dead, the highest from a military raid in the West Bank since 2005.

Meanwhile, the death toll continues to rise. Since the start of the year, 63 Palestinians have died, both fighters and civilians; 11 Israelis, a police officer and 11 civilians; and a Ukrainian woman.

Amid all this, Israeli and Palestinian officials met in Aqaba, Jordan, to defuse tensions and prevent "further violence".

At the end of the meeting, the two sides signed a joint statement highlighting the “necessity of committing to de-escalation on the ground and to prevent further violence."

Despite this, Israel’s National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi was quick to point out in the evening that Israeli government policy had not changed.

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, in charge of civilian affairs in the West Bank, also said, “there will not be a freeze on construction and development in the settlement, not even for one day”.

All said, there is little hope of easing tensions, which was the goal of the talks held in Jordan, which saw the participation of representatives of Egypt, Jordan, and the United States.

One of the meeting’s goals is to preserve the holy places in Jerusalem, where Christians have been the victims to targeted attacks.

To this end, the two sides “confirmed their joint readiness and commitment to immediately work to end unilateral measures for a period of three to six months.”

Just words: no sooner was the ink dry that the violence flared up.

In fact, while the parties agreed to hold further talks in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, next month, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir announced the government’s intention to introduce a bill that would impose the death penalty on people convicted of terrorism.

For Netanyahu, his administration would “continue to act by all means ... to deter the terrorists and maintain Israel's security”.

Between army invasions and settler ‘pogroms,’ the West Bank rises

Amid Israeli army assassinations and settler terror, Palestinians rally around armed resistance in a showing of spontaneous mass mobilization that has not been seen in decades.

BY MONDOWEISS PALESTINE BUREAU FEBRUARY 27, 2023 

PALESTINIANS INSPECT BURNED CARS AT A SCRAPYARD IN THE TOWN OF HUWWARA NEAR NABLUS, FEBRUARY 27, 2023, AFTER A SETTLER “POGROM” THE NEXT BEFORE.

(PHOTO: SHADI JARAR’AH/APA IMAGES)

The West Bank was under a two-pronged attack last week.

The first was carried out by the Israeli state’s army in a massive military invasion of Nablus that killed 11 Palestinians and injured over 100. The second was carried out by its nominally civilian wing — gangs of colonial settlers that went on a rampage last night in response to a resistance attack that killed two Israeli settlers in Huwwara, just south of Nablus.

The raid on Nablus was one of the bloodiest in recent months, aiming to assassinate wanted resistance fighters from the Lions’ Den, Muhammad Juneidi and Hussam Isleem. Israeli special forces killed them and their comrade, Walid Dakhil, a cousin of one of the co-founders of the group. Four other fighters from armed resistance groups around Nablus were also killed in the fighting, in addition to four bystanders in the city (three elderly men and a teenage boy).

Nablus was in mourning, and the Lions’ Den put out a call asking the people to show their support at midnight, February 23:

“Do not despair and fall into sorrow, we need you all, as you have accustomed us…to take to the streets if you can, to come out in every major square, in every city in the West Bank, Jerusalem, the beloved [Gaza] Strip, and in every refugee camp in the homeland, to hear those who would pledge loyalty to the blood that has been spilled.”

Everyone responded to the call of the Lions’ Den. From Ramallah to Hebron, to Nablus and Jenin, to Bethlehem and its camps and Tulkarm and Jericho, people were out in the thousands at midnight, in a show of mass support unknown to any Palestinian political faction.

Neither Fatah nor any other faction has been able to muster this kind of spontaneous mass support since the First Intifada. Political legitimacy, it has become clear, is not to be found in summit halls and security deals, but rather sprouts from the barrel of a rifle when pointed at the colonizer.

In other words, the Lions’ Den has captured the imagination of Palestinians in a way that the political “leadership” has failed to do for decades. What’s more, it has long since stopped trying.

Yet it recognizes its increasingly tenuous hold over the West Bank cantons that it calls a state, pushing it to attend a meeting mediated by Jordan with top Israeli officials in Aqaba on Sunday, February 27. Billed as aiming “to bring an end to the bloodshed,” according to Fatah, the Aqaba Summit was held with the express purpose of calming the brewing storm of Palestinian resistance.

And on the same day as the Summit, an unidentified Palestinian gunman carried out a resistance attack against a settler vehicle in the Palestinian town of Huwwara, south of Nablus. Two settlers were killed, and with them the stillborn Summit at Aqaba.

ISRAELI SECURITY FORCES GATHER AT THE SCENE OF THE SHOOTING ATTACK ON A CAR NEAR HUWWARA NEAR NABLUS ON FEBRUARY 26, 2023. 

(PHOTO: MOHAMMED NASSER/APA IMAGES)

Palestinians saw the attack as retribution for the invasion of Nablus, much like Khairi Alqam’s Neve Yaacov shooting, which was regarded as retribution for the massacre in Jenin several weeks ago.

According to reuters, one of the settlers killed in Huwwara was in the Israeli military, and both settlers were reportedly from the illegal Israeli settlement of Har Bracha, 8km away from the site where they were killed. Har Bracha is one of many notoriously violent Israeli settlements in the Nablus area, from which Israeli settlers routinely launch attacks on Palestinians.

And that is precisely what the settlers did following yesterday’s shooting in Huwwara.

The settler riot has been widely described as a “pogrom,” and with good reason. The rabid settler gangs rampaged through Huwwara and many other towns throughout the West Bank, completely burning down 35 Palestinian homes, damaging 40 others, and killing a Palestinian in Zaatara, 37-year-old Sameh Aqtash.

All the while, the Israeli army accompanied the settlers as they were out for blood, ensuring their safety and freedom to lynch and burn as they pleased. Israeli forces also imposed a closure on the Nablus area, as Wafa News Agency reported closures at the checkpoints of Huwara, Awarta, al-Muraba’a road, Za’tara, and entrances to Beita. On Monday, February 27, Wafa reported that an Israeli settler attempted to run over a group of journalists covering the Huwwara news.

Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who is now in charge of the Civil Administration in the West Bank, reportedly liked a tweet from the Samaria Regional Council Deputy Chief that called for the village of Huwara to “be erased” (see tweet by Edo Konrad of 972), while his political bedfellow and Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, made a visit to the illegal settler outpost of Evyatar on Monday as it was being evicted, vowing to “crush our enemies” and declaring that the settlers are in a state of war that “is not going to end in one day.”

In that, Ben-Gvir is correct. The Zionist forever war against the Palestinians is as old as Zionism itself, and so is Palestinian resistance.

And as we write these words, reports stream in of the death of an Israeli settler in another operation in Jericho.