Thursday, March 02, 2023

Genomic study of indigenous Africans paints complex picture of human origins and local adaptation

An international team of researchers led by Penn geneticists sequenced the genomes of 180 indigenous Africans. The results shed light on the origin of modern humans, African population history, and local adaptation.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA

Field work for African genomics study in Ethiopia 

IMAGE: WITH THE HELP OF A LOCAL TRANSLATOR, SIMON THOMPSON (IN BLUE PLAID SHIRT) FROM SARAH TISHKOFF’S LAB AND DAWIT WOLDE-MESKEL (IN YELLOW SHIRT), A COLLABORATOR FROM ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY, EXPLAIN THE RESEARCH PROJECT ON AFRICAN POPULATION GENETICS TO THE ARGOBBA POPULATION IN ETHIOPIA. NEW FINDINGS FROM A STUDY OF 12 DIVERSE GROUPS IN AFRICA SHED NEW LIGHT ON THE ORIGIN OF MODERN HUMANS, ANCIENT AND MORE RECENT MIGRATIONS, AND LOCAL ADAPTATION. view more 

CREDIT: COURTESY OF THE TISHKOFF LABORATORY

Africa, where humans first evolved, today remains a place of remarkable diversity. Diving into that variation, a new analysis of 180 indigenous Africans from a dozen ethnically, culturally, geographically, and linguistically varied populations by an international scientific team offers new insights into human history and biology, and may inform precision medicine approaches of the future.

The work clarifies human migration histories, both historical and more recent, and provides genetic evidence of adaptation to local environments, manifested through traits such as skin color, heart and kidney development, immunity, and bone growth.

The findings, published in the journal Cell and led by University of Pennsylvania researchers, also have implications for understanding health conditions common in people of African ancestry. And, because African populations have been underrepresented in genomic studies, the investigation significantly expands what is known about human genetic diversity. The investigation turns up millions of new genomic variants known as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)—differences in one “letter” of the DNA sequence—including many that appear to play roles in health, laying the groundwork for a broader swath of people to benefit from precision medicine based on individual differences.

“There is a lack of knowledge about genomic variation in African populations, particularly in ethnically diverse populations,” says Sarah Tishkoff, a Penn Integrates Knowledge University professor at Penn and senior author on the work. “We focus on populations who practice more traditional lifestyles, live in remote areas that can be difficult to access, and some of whom have never been studied from this perspective before.”

Origins and migrations

Researchers obtained complete genome sequences for 180 individuals—15 from each of 12 indigenous populations. The study is the first to perform rigorous whole-genome sequencing of such a genetically diverse mix of African groups.

“From the perspective of an African physician-scientist, our work demonstrates the importance of long-term scientific collaborations and highlights the urgent need to include more African populations in genetic studies,” says Alfred Njamnshi, a professor at Cameroon’s University of Yaoundé I and a study coauthor. “If all humans came out of Africa, as increasing evidence suggests, it would simply be expected that more effort and resources will be put into studying human genetics in Africans, so as to better understand not only human genetics but human physiology and pathology in general, the basis for more precise human medicine.”

The 12 populations practice, or practiced until recently, traditional livelihoods: farming, livestock herding, or hunting and gathering. Together, they include representatives from each of the four different language families present in Africa: Afroasiatic, Nilo-Saharan, Niger-Congo, and Khoesan.

Placing the new genome sequences from these African populations in context with other, previously sequenced genomes from populations across the globe, the research team crafted a worldwide family tree.

“Inferring African demographic history is very challenging because the history is so complex,” Tishkoff says. “But, with our models, based on shared patterns of genomic variation, you can infer when populations shared a common ancestor, even when accounting for gene flow—populations migrating in and out and interbreeding.”

When the team allowed for gene flow in their models, they found that the southern African Khoesan-speaking group, the San, as well as Central African, rainforest-dwelling hunter-gatherers appeared at the root of the tree. “That’s a very novel result,” Tishkoff says. Previous analyses had pointed to only the San as descending from the most ancient populations.

They also found that the San and Central Africa hunter-gatherer groups split from one another, and from other known populations, more than 200,000 years ago.

Population ancestry models turned up evidence of a now-extinct “ghost” population that may have intermixed with other groups at the time. “We don’t have ancient DNA from fossils because they don’t preserve well in an African environment, but one explanation is there could have been mixing with an archaic population,” Tishkoff says.

The findings add support to linguistics-backed theories of population structure. Linguists have debated whether Khoesan-speaking groups—whose languages share click consonants but are highly distinct in their other features—were truly closely related. According to genomic results, though these groups diverged tens of thousands of years ago, there is evidence that all of them may have shared a common origin in East Africa, and shared more recent gene flow, during the last 10,000 years.

“What we propose is that there may have been an East African origin for these click-speaking groups, and maybe even the rainforest hunter-gatherers as well, though they’ve since lost their original language and adopted the language of the neighboring Bantu-speaking populations,” says Tishkoff. “The groups may have split in different directions, with the Hadza and the Sandawe (Khoesan speakers from Tanzania) staying local and the San (Khoesan speakers from Botswana) moving south.” However, analysis of modern and ancient DNA indicates that there has been gene flow between the ancestors of the Hadza and Sandawe and the ancestors of the San, which could potentially explain some similarities in their language. 

Newly understood human genetic diversity

The newly sequenced genomes identified 32 million SNPs, including more than 5 million that had never before been cataloged.

“The 32 million SNPs that were analyzed have just shed a new light on the importance of extending genetic studies in regions that have been previously marginalized around the globe,” says study co-author Thomas B. Nyambo of Kampala International University in Tanzania. “This is the way forward in the elucidation of evolutionary trends and their implication in tailored diagnostics and therapeutics.”

When the research team cross-referenced the previously identified SNPs with those in a widely used database used for clinical studies, they discovered many of the variants found in the African individuals in the study had been classified as pathogenic.

“This does not mean African populations have more ‘pathogenic’ variants,” says Shaohua Fan, a lead study author who completed a postdoc at Penn and is now at China’s Fudan University. “Rather, it emphasizes a strong need to include ethnically diverse populations in human genetic studies, especially because rarity is one criteria for determining a variant’s pathogenicity in clinical studies.”

In other words, some of these variants may have been miscategorized as associated with disease only because they were so uncommon in other populations, such as Europeans, which dominate these clinical databases.

“Comprehensively assessing genetic variants has been used as a strategy to study human disease and provides tremendous power to identify new loci associated with disease susceptibility and progression,” says Sununguko Wata Mpoloka of the University of Botswana. “Including understudied indigenous populations like those from Botswana in such studies will contribute tremendously to an understanding of precision medicine and could lead to tailormade drugs specific to such populations.”

Some of these variants may indeed play a meaningful role in health and disease. To get at these associations, the researchers not only compared mutations to existing databases and published studies, but also looked to see whether the variations occurred in the coding regions for proteins or in regions that could regulate gene expression for biologically relevant pathways and processes. They also looked for versions of a mutation, known as alleles, that occur at significantly different frequencies in different populations. These differences may arise because the alleles play a role in local adaptation to diverse environments and are positively selected, presumably because they confer some advantage to the people who carry them.

Several notable variants emerged from these analyses. In the San population of southern Africa, for example, the team found high numbers of SNPs near the PDPK1 gene, which had been shown by other scientists to play a role in pigmentation in mice. “Based on prior studies in our lab, we know that the San have relatively light skin color compared with other African populations,” says Yuanqing Feng, a postdoctoral researcher in the Tishkoff lab and a study co-author. “Thus, we hypothesized that SNPs near PDPK1 may affect pigmentation in humans.”

To generate mechanistic evidence for that hypothesis, the researchers tested the effect of one of these SNPs—shown to be common in the San—in skin cells grown in a petri dish. They found that inhibiting the region containing the variant altered expression levels of PDPK1 and reduced the levels of the skin pigment melanin in the lab-grown skin cells.

Other connections with health and function emerged from the study. The team’s analysis found a large number of variants near genes associated with bone growth in the Central African hunter-gatherers. These groups are known for their short stature, which is believed to be advantageous for the thick rainforest environment where they live. In pastoralist populations from East Africa, the team discovered enrichment for variants near genes that play a role in kidney development and function, possibly an adaptation to living in arid conditions. And in the Hadza hunter-gatherers in East Africa, they found a unique enrichment of variants near genes that play a role in heart development.

“My lab is now following up with some of these genes to see whether we can learn about the genetics of heart muscle development,” says Tishkoff. “If we understand how these genes are regulated, that could give us a clue as to why some people have a tendency toward cardiovascular disease. To understand abnormal function, you first have to understand normal function, and we speculate that there’s something about these individuals’ lifestyles—having to walk incredibly long distances, for example—that might make it advantageous to have certain changes in how the heart develops and functions.”

In addition, the researchers found gene variants related to blood pressure control in people with Nilo-Congo ancestry, West African groups that share ancestry with people from whom most African Americans are descended. “There’s a high incidence of hypertension and diabetes in people of African ancestry in the United States, and that’s largely due to socioeconomic factors,” Tishkoff says. “But there could be some genetic risk factors that, together with the environment in which they live, influence their risk for disease. Some of these could be adaptive in an African environment but maladaptive in a U.S. environment.”

These new datapoints may one day help inform precision medicine approaches that rely on understanding how genetics and other individual differences affect people’s disease risk, response to drugs, and more.

“There’s a huge amount of genomic variation in Africa that has not yet been well characterized,” Tishkoff adds. “We want to make sure all populations benefit from the genomics revolution, and we want to promote health equity, and therefore we need to include more diverse populations in these studies.”

Sarah Tishkoff is the David and Lyn Silfen University Professor in Genetics and Biology and a Penn Integrates Knowledge University Professor with appointments in the Perelman School of Medicine’s Department of Genetics and Department of Medicine and the School of Arts & Sciences’ Department of Biology at the University of Pennsylvania.

Shaohua Fan is a professor at China’s Fudan University and completed a postdoctoral fellowship in the Tishkoff lab at Penn.

Yuanqing Feng is a postdoctoral researcher in the Tishkoff lab at Penn.

Alfred Njamnshi is a professor of neurology and neuroscience at Cameroon’s University of Yaoundé I.

Thomas B. Nyambo is a member of the Department of Medical Biochemistry at Kampala International University in Tanzania. 

Sununguko Wata Mpoloka is an associate professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at the University of Botswana.

In addition to Tishkoff, Fan, Feng, Njamnshi, Nyambo, and Mpoloka, the study authors were: Penn Medicine’s Matthew E. B. Hansen, Marcia Beltrame, Alessia Ranciaro, Jibril Hirbo, and William Beggs; Stanford University’s Jeffrey P. Spence; University of Michigan’s Jonathan Terhorst; University of California, Berkeley’s Neil Thomas and Yun Song; Kampala International University’s Thomas Nyambo; University of Botswana’s Gaonyadiwe George Mokone; University of Yaoundé I’s Charles Folkunang; and Addis Ababa University’s Dawit Wolde Meskell and Gurja Belay.

Fan and Spence were co-first authors and Tishkoff was senior and corresponding author.

The study was supported primarily by the National Institutes of Health (grants GM134957, AR076241, and GM134922), the American Diabetes Association (Grant 1-19-VS-02), and the Penn Skin Biology and Diseases Resource-based Center (funded by NIH Grant AR069589 and the Perelman School of Medicine).

 

To ensure a safe and just future for people, nature and the planet, Earth System Boundaries must include justice, researchers find

Peer-Reviewed Publication

FUTURE EARTH

Figure 1. Adding a justice perspective on boundaries 

IMAGE: THE FIGURE SHOWS THE JUSTICE QUESTIONS IN RELATION TO ONE EARTH SYSTEM DOMAIN. ESJ FOCUSES ON THE JUSTICE ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO ENDS (BOUNDARIES, ACCESS TO MINIMUM RESOURCES) AND MEANS (THE ALLOCATION OF REMAINING RESOURCES, RISKS AND RESPONSIBILITIES). view more 

CREDIT: LISA JACOBSON AND PAOLA FEZZIGNA

In a new study published in Nature Sustainability an international team of scientists from the Earth Commission, convened by Future Earth, investigates how global biophysical boundaries need to be adjusted to ensure a safe and just future for people, nature and the planet. The Earth Commission is the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance

This new framework integrates methods to reduce harm to people, increase access to resources, address tradeoffs, and challenge powerful interests whilst addressing inequality between generations and between humans and nature within discussions on Earth system boundaries. 

“These topics still require debates and engagement with different knowledge systems - to meet the principles of procedural and recognition justice - on the structural and systemic changes that are needed to ensure a more just resource consumption so that the needs of all people can be met whilst ensuring justice between species and a stable Earth system”,  lead author Joyeeta Gupta, Co-Chair of the Earth Commission and Professor of Environment and Development in the Global South at the University of Amsterdam, explained. 

The research comes ahead of an associated Earth Commission report due out in early 2023 that defines ‘safe and just’ ‘Earth System Boundaries’ (ESBs) to safeguard a stable and resilient planet. These ESBs will underpin the setting of new science-based targets for businesses, cities and governments to address the polycrises of:  increasing human exposure to the climate emergency, biodiversity decline, mass extinction of species that threaten the stability of the planet. 

In the paper, researchers argue that Earth System Boundaries must not only ensure the stability of the planet but also protect humans and other species from significant harm. This might require more stringent targets; however, such stringent targets may also influence the access of people to basic resources and the allocation of resources. Building on the scholarship on justice, they define the concept of Earth system justice, offering a theoretical framework for Earth system justice, operationalizing it and additionally outlining the transformations required to do so. This entails substantive and procedural justice where substantive justice aims at ensuring access to minimum resources, reducing harm, and allocating responsibilities fairly. Procedural justice implies that people should be able to access information, participate in decision making, enjoy civic space and the right to go to courts. Adjusting biophysical targets to ensure that the poor have access to resources and the vulnerable are protected from harm is needed.

“While it is important to establish boundaries for climate change, biodiversity, water, and pollution that ensure a stable and safe earth system we also need to consider how such boundaries can also be just in minimizing harm to humans and nature. This includes avoiding tradeoffs, and ensuring that we meet the goals of sustainable development in ensuring that everyone has access to the energy, food, water and other resources for a dignified life”, said Diana Liverman, Earth Commissioner and Regents professor at the University of Arizona.  

“We need to assess who is most responsible for Earth system change, who is most vulnerable to it, and who should take action to reduce the risks and reallocate resources, responses and risks in line with principles of justice”, she added.  

At the core of Earth System Justice the researchers consider the need for justice among present nations, communities and individuals (Intragenerational Justice), justice for future generations (Intergenerational justice) and for other living things and Earth system stability (‘Interspecies Justice and Earth system stability’).  To operationalise the framework, they evaluate if safe (ecological and physical) Earth system boundaries reduce harm to the most vulnerable while ensuring  'just access’ to food, water, energy and infrastructure. 

The authors argue that if we are to achieve truly just and sustainable futures, we need to grapple with what Earth system justice means and how it can be put into practice. This will ensure that historical and present injustices are addressed and not continuously postponed or reproduced. The authors conclude that living within planetary limits must include attention to justice.

- ENDS -

  

CAPTION

Note: This figure presents the elements of ESJ in terms of concepts (ideal, recognition and epistemic), the subjects of justice (Interspecies & Earth system stability, Intergenerational and Intragenerational justice), and includes procedural justice (access to information, decision-making, civic space and courts), and substantive justice operationalized as ends that include targets that reduce exposure to significant harm and access to resources/services and equitable allocation of resources, risks/harm and responsibilities. Equitable access and allocation within safe and just ESBs is difficult without just means (levers of transformation) which includes addressing the drivers of ecological degradation/vulnerability, liability for harm caused, setting minimum needs and maximum consumption levels and revisiting allocation mechanisms.

CREDIT

Lisa Jacobson and Paola Fezzigna

Figure 3. Mapping exposure to harm from air pollution Figure 3. Mapping exposure to harm from air pollution 


Note: In an unequal world, providing the poor access to minimum needs leads to further crossing the boundaries (see figure 1). Hence, we propose to reserve a certain minimum access level for all people. This provides the foundation for a corridor. The ceiling of the corridor is the safe and just boundary.

CREDIT

Lisa Jacobson and Paola Fezzigna

Energy: More than two million citizens power Europe’s renewable energy transition

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

More than two million citizens across 30 European countries have been involved in thousands of projects and initiatives as part of efforts to transition to renewable energy, according to an analysis published in Scientific Reports. With investments ranging between 6.2 and 11.3 billion Euros, these findings highlight the important role of collective action in the decarbonisation of Europe.

The energy system in Europe is undergoing a significant transition towards renewables and decarbonisation. However, the contribution of citizen-led efforts, such as energy cooperatives, in this sphere is largely unknown.

Valeria Schwanitz and colleagues quantified the contributions of citizen-led energy initiatives towards the transition to low-carbon energy in 30 European countries between 2000 and 2021.They assessed the numbers of initiatives, people involved, specific energy projects, and renewable energy facilities installed, and the total funds invested.

The authors estimate that 10,540 citizen-led initiatives were recorded during this time period, examples of which include a renewable energy community in Borutta, Italy and an eco-village community in Sweden. Within these initiatives, 22,830 specific projects were undertaken such as the installation of wind turbines and solar panels on local buildings, and the promotion of behavioural change and climate action within communities. The authors estimate that 2,010,600 people collectively participated in these activities – including 391,500 individuals in Germany and 306,650 individuals in Denmark.

Additionally, the authors calculate that between 6.2 and 11.3 billion Euros were invested in citizen-led energy activities. This equated to investment of up to 5,700 Euros per individual. The installed renewable facilities had a capacity of between 7.2 to 9.9 gigawatts, and the authors calculate that these facilities produced between 8,500 and 11,700 kiloWatt hours annually per person involved in the initiatives. This approximately covers the electricity needs of a typical European household.

The authors conclude that more data and reporting standards are needed to develop comprehensive statistics for the contribution of citizen efforts to the energy transition in Europe.

###

Article details

Statistical evidence for the contribution of citizen-led initiatives and projects to the energy transition in Europe

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28504-4

Corresponding Authors:

Valeria Schwanitz
Western Norway University of Applied Science, Sogndal, Norway
Email: valerias@hvl.no

Please link to the article in online versions of your report (the URL will go live after the embargo ends): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-28504-4.

Robot provides unprecedented views below Antarctic ice shelf


Peer-Reviewed Publication

CORNELL UNIVERSITY

High in a narrow, seawater-filled crevasse in the base of Antarctica’s largest ice shelf, cameras on the remotely operated Icefin underwater vehicle relayed a sudden change in scenery.

Walls of smooth, cloudy meteoric ice suddenly turned green and rougher in texture, transitioning to salty marine ice.

Nearly 1,900 feet above, near where the surface of the Ross Ice Shelf meets Kamb Ice Stream, a U.S.-New Zealand research team recognized the shift as evidence of “ice pumping” – a process never before directly observed in an ice shelf crevasse, important to its stability.

“We were looking at ice that had just melted less than 100 feet below, flowed up into the crevasse and then refrozen,” said Justin Lawrence, visiting scholar at the Cornell Center for Astrophysics and Planetary Science. “And then it just got weirder as we went higher up.”

The Icefin robot’s unprecedented look inside a crevasse, and observations revealing more than a century of geological processes beneath the ice shelf, are detailed in “Crevasse Refreezing and Signatures of Retreat Observed at Kamb Ice Stream Grounding Zone,” published March 2 in Nature Geoscience.

The paper reports results from a 2019 field campaign to Kamb Ice Stream supported by Antarctica New Zealand and other New Zealand research agencies, led by Christina Hulbe, professor at the University of Otago, and colleagues. Through support from NASA’s Astrobiology Program, a research team led by Britney Schmidt, associate professor of astronomy and earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell University, was able to join the expedition and deploy Icefin. Schmidt’s Planetary Habitability and Technology Lab has been developing Icefin for nearly a decade, beginning at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

Combined with recently published investigations of the fast-changing Thwaites Glacier – explored the same season by a second Icefin vehicle – the research is expected to improve models of sea-level rise by providing the first high-resolution views of ice, ocean and sea floor interactions at contrasting glacier systems on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Thwaites, which is exposed to warm ocean currents, is one of the continent’s most unstable glaciers. Kamb Ice Stream, where the ocean is very cold, has been stagnant since the late 1800s. Kamb currently offsets some of the ice loss from western Antarctica, but if it reactivates could increase the region’s contribution to sea-level rise by 12%.

“Antarctica is a complex system and it’s important to understand both ends of the spectrum – systems already undergoing rapid change as well as those quieter systems where future change poses a risk,” Schmidt said. “Observing Kamb and Thwaites together helps us learn more.”

NASA funded Icefin’s development and the Kamb exploration to extend ocean exploration beyond Earth. Marine ice like that found in the crevasse may be an analog for conditions on Jupiter’s icy moon Europa, the target of NASA’s Europa Clipper orbital mission slated for launch in 2024. Later lander missions might one day search directly for microbial life in the ice.

Icefin carries a full complement of oceanographic instruments on a modular frame more than 12 feet long and less than 10 inches in diameter. It was lowered on a tether through a borehole the New Zealand team drilled through the ice shelf with hot water.

During three dives spanning more than three miles near the grounding zone where Kamb transitions to the floating Ross shelf, Icefin mapped five crevasses – ascending one – and the sea floor, while recording water conditions including temperature, pressure and salinity.

The team observed diverse ice features that provide valuable information about water mixing and melt rates. They included golf ball-like dimples, ripples, vertical runnels and the “weirder” formations near the top of the crevasse: globs of ice and finger-like protrusions resembling brinicles.

Ice pumping observed in the crevasse likely contributes to the relative stability of the Ross Ice Shelf – the world’s largest by area, the size of France – compared to Thwaites Glacier, the researchers said.

“It’s a way these big ice shelves can protect and heal themselves,” said Peter Washam, a polar oceanographer on the Icefin science team and the paper’s second author. “A lot of the melting that happens deep near the grounding line, that water then refreezes and accretes onto the bottom of the ice as marine ice.”

On the sea floor, Icefin mapped parallel sets of ridges that the researchers believe are impressions left behind by ice shelf crevasses – and a record of 150 years of activity since the Kamb stream stagnated. As its grounding line retreated, the ice shelf thinned, causing the crevasses to lift away. The ice’s slow movement over time shifted the crevasses seaward of the ridges.

“We can look at those sea floor features and directly connect them to what we saw on the ice base,” said Lawrence, the paper’s lead author, now a program manager and planetary scientist at Honeybee Robotics. “We can, in a way, rewind the process.”

In addition to Lawrence, Washam and Schmidt, Cornell co-authors of the research are Senior Research Engineers Matthew Meister, who led the Icefin engineering team, and Andrew Mullen; Research Engineer Daniel Dichek; and Program Manager Enrica Quartini. Schmidt’s team also includes Research Engineer Frances Bryson, and at Georgia Tech, doctoral students Benjamin Hurwitz and Anthony Spears.

Also contributing were partners from New Zealand at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA); University of Auckland; University of Otago; and Victoria University of Wellington.

NASA supported the research through the Planetary Science and Technology from Analog Research program’s Project RISE UP (Ross Ice Shelf and Europa Underwater Probe), and the Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology program. Additional support came from New Zealand’s Antarctic Science Platform, the U.S. Antarctic Program and Victoria University of Wellington’s Hot Water Drilling initiative.

Wisconsin cave holds tantalizing clues to ancient climate changes, future shifts


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON

Even in their dark isolation from the atmosphere above, caves can hold a rich archive of local climate conditions and how they've shifted over the eons. Formed over tens of thousands of years, speleothems — rock formations unique to caves better known as stalagmites and stalactites — hold secrets to the ancient environments from which they formed.

A newly published study of a stalagmite found in a cave in southern Wisconsin reveals previously undetected history of the local climate going back thousands of years. The new findings provide strong evidence that a series of massive and abrupt warming events that punctuated the most recent ice age likely enveloped vast swaths of the Northern Hemisphere.

The research, conducted by a team of scientists at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, appears March 2 in the journal Nature Geoscience. It's the first study to identify a possible link between ice age warm-ups recorded in the Greenland ice sheet — known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events — and climate records from deep within the interior of central North America.

"This is the only study in this area of the world that is recording these abrupt climate events during the last glacial period," says Cameron Batchelor, who led the analysis while completing her PhD at UW–Madison. Batchelor is now a postdoctoral fellow with the National Science Foundation working at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The study is based on an exceptionally detailed chemical and physical analysis of a stalagmite that formed in the Cave of the Mounds, a tourist attraction and educational destination.

"At Cave of the Mounds our mission is to interpret this geologic wonder for our many annual visitors," says Joe Klimczak, general manager of the cave, which is a designated national natural landmark. "We are thrilled to deepen our understanding of the cave thanks to this world-class research and very exciting results.”

The stalagmite Batchelor and her team analyzed grew extremely slowly — taking roughly 20,000 years to reach the length of a human pinky finger.

The finger-length subterranean rock formed from a complex process that began in the sky. Water that originally fell as precipitation from the atmosphere soaked into the ground and percolated through soil and cracks in bedrock, dissolving tiny bits of limestone along the way. Some of that dissolved limestone was then left behind as countless drips of water fell from the ceiling of Cave of the Mounds, gradually accumulating into thousands of exceedingly thin layers of a mineral called calcite.

"And because those calcite layers are formed from that original precipitation, they're locking in the oxygen in the H2O originating from that precipitation," says Batchelor.

Therein lies the key to reconstructing an ancient climate record from a small, otherwise unremarkable rock. The oxygen trapped in the calcite exists in a couple varieties — known as isotopes — that scientists can use to glean information about the environmental conditions present during the precipitation events that formed it. That includes the temperature and possible sources of rain and snow that fell atop the Cave of the Mounds over thousands of years.

Batchelor's team used a specialized imaging technique that allowed them to identify layers within the stalagmite representing annual growth bands — much like how tree rings record a season’s worth of growth. Using another technique, they identified the isotopes in the tiny layers, revealing that present-day southern Wisconsin experienced a number of very large average temperature swings of up to 10 C (or about 18 F) between 48,000 and 68,000 years ago. Several of the temperature swings occurred over the course of around a decade.

While the dating information is not precise enough to definitively tie the temperature swings to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events recorded in Greenland ice cores, the researchers can say with confidence they occurred within similar timeframes. The team also performed climate simulations that bolstered the hypothesis that warming events occurred tens of thousands of years ago in the region of North America that includes present-day Wisconsin, and that the climate records from Cave of the Mounds and the Greenland ice sheet are indeed linked.

This potential link is exciting for Batchelor because it offers a climate story about central North America that has so far gone untold. Previous research from the mid-continent has not resolved signals of these large temperature swings, also called excursions.

"One theory was that the mid-continent is relatively immune to abrupt climate changes, and that maybe that's because it's surrounded by landmass, and there's some type of buffering happening," says Batchelor. "However, when we went and measured, we saw these really large excursions, and we were like, 'Oh, no, something is definitely happening.'"

That something — a rapidly changing climate — is unfolding yet again today, thanks to humans and our use of fossil fuels. Batchelor says she hopes her work in Wisconsin, and now a cave in the Canadian subarctic that she is studying for her postdoc, helps fill a big data gap about the history and potential future of abrupt climate changes in the mid-continent of North America.

This study was supported by grants from the National Science foundation (P2C2-1805629, EAR-1355590, EAR-1658823). Further resources were provided by the U.S. Department of Energy (DE-AC05-00OR22725), the Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation and the Isotope Laboratory at the University of Minnesota. At UW–Madison, Shaun Marcott, Ian Orland and Feng He contributed to this study, as did R. Lawrence Edwards at the University of Minnesota.

Crowdsourced reports can quickly identify an earthquake’s impact


Peer-Reviewed Publication

SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA

Within minutes, a statistical model based on a global database of public reports of ground shaking can be used to identify an earthquake as a high- or low-impact event, according to a new study published in The Seismic Record.

High-impact earthquakes, as defined by the study, are those associated with at least one destroyed building, at least 50 damaged buildings, at least two deaths, or any documented financial losses.

The researchers were able to provide impact results for 393 global earthquake events from 2021 within 10 minutes. Their model was developed using more than 1.5 million globally collected felt reports from more than 10,000 earthquakes of any magnitude between 2014 and 2021. The reports come from the Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC)’s LastQuake app, which alerts populations and collects user reports of earthquake shaking in real time.

While their model still has some challenges separating some high versus low-impact events, the model was able to definitively label a large number of events as low-impact, according to University of Potsdam researcher Henning Lilienkamp and colleagues.

Quickly determining the impact of an earthquake is essential for decision-makers and emergency response operators, as they guide the immediate direction of the actions that can protect lives and mitigate further damage.

Of course, in some cases such as the February 2023 catastrophic sequence of earthquakes affecting parts of Turkey and Syria, “it is immediately clear that emergency measures are urgent,” Lilienkamp said.

Events like the magnitude 5.9 earthquake that hit remote areas of Afghanistan and Iran on 12 June 2022, causing over 1000 fatalities, “are where our model could be of interest, because, according to the EMSC, it was not clear for hours whether considerable impact was to be expected or not,” he added.

Rapid assessment impact systems such as the U.S. Geological Survey PAGER provide impact estimates within 30 minutes—although they can return results in as little as five minutes in heavily instrumented areas—using ground acceleration data and other seismic observations, along with crowdsourced reports.

While many kinds of data can go into assessing an earthquake in its immediate aftermath, EMSC “has built up a huge source of information that has barely been utilized in a quantitative way in seismic hazard and risk-related studies so far,” Lilienkamp explained. “We were convinced that this database is too valuable to be disregarded in the long run, because it is collected efficiently and on a global scale, including in regions that lack expensive seismic instrumentation.”

The goal of Lilienkamp and colleagues was to see whether a useful assessment could be developed quickly using only crowdsourced data. The basis of their method converts a felt report into a “pseudo-intensity” value that quantifies the level of shaking.

Being able to identify an earthquake as low impact could provide some comfort to the public, as these kinds of earthquakes can still be felt and may cause anxiety as a result, the researchers note in their paper.

Lilienkamp and colleagues suggest that their method could be used to develop a “traffic light” system based on impact scores, where green-level scores would require no further action by decision-makers, yellow would prompt further investigation, and red could raise an alert.

“As seismologists, we need to get a better understanding of how exactly decision-makers and emergency services like fire departments actually act in case of an emergency, which kind of information is useful, and at which probabilities of high impact they would prefer to raise an alarm,” said Lilienkamp. “Careful communication of our model’s abilities and the individual needs of potential end-users will be key for a practical implementation of traffic-light systems.”

For the 6 February sequence in Turkey, Lilienkamp said the LastQuake service collected about 6500 reports from the first magnitude 7.8 shock and about 4800 reports from the second magnitude 7.5 shock. “For the first shock it took about four and a half minutes to collect 50 reports—the number required to run our model—and after 10 minutes 1232 reports were available.”

As is usual, there was an initial lack of reports from the area where shaking was most intense. “This effect is well known and represents the fact that people under such extreme circumstances of course prioritize finding shelter and rescuing people in danger, over submitting felt reports on their smartphones,” Lilienkamp said.