Wednesday, March 15, 2023

NASA James Webb Telescope returns rare Wolf-Rayet image


Images released Tuesday by NASA show rare Wolf-Rayet star WR124 in unprecedented detail. 
Photo courtesy of NASA

March 14 (UPI) -- NASA's James Webb Telescope captured a rare Wolf-Rayet star, one of the first times an image of that type of supernova has been seen.

The space agency Tuesday released images of the star in transition, which were captured in "unprecedented detail."

Wolf-Rayet 124 comes with "a distinctive halo of gas and dust that frames the star and glows in the infrared light detected by Webb, displaying knotty structure and a history of episodic ejections," NASA said in a statement.

The cosmic dust that is formed as gas is ejected away from the star, cooling along the way.

Referred to by scientists as a "dust budget," dust that survives a supernova explosion is important for astronomers as they attempt to get a better understanding of the celestial objects.

"Dust is integral to the workings of the universe," NASA said in a statement.

"It shelters forming stars, gathers together to help form planets, and serves as a platform for molecules to form and clump together -- including the building blocks of life on Earth. Despite the many essential roles that dust plays, there is still more dust in the universe than astronomers' current dust-formation theories can explain. The universe is operating with a dust budget surplus."

The cosmic dust is "composed of the heavy-element building blocks of the modern universe, including life on Earth."


Wolf-Rayet stars go through rapid expansion early in their lives.

They are some of the biggest and brightest stars in the sky, often expanding to a mass 20 times bigger than our sun.

Their decline is rapid, losing half their mass by the time they're 100,000 years old, culminating with a massive supernova explosion when they die.

NASA’s Fermi captures dynamic gamma-ray sky in new animation


Peer-Reviewed Publication

NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER

Fermi LAT Light Curve Repository February 2022 to February 2023 

IMAGE: WATCH A COSMIC GAMMA-RAY FIREWORKS SHOW IN THIS ANIMATION USING JUST A YEAR OF DATA FROM THE LARGE AREA TELESCOPE (LAT) ABOARD NASA’S FERMI GAMMA-RAY SPACE TELESCOPE. EACH OBJECT’S MAGENTA CIRCLE GROWS AS IT BRIGHTENS AND SHRINKS AS IT DIMS. THE YELLOW CIRCLE REPRESENTS THE SUN FOLLOWING ITS APPARENT ANNUAL PATH ACROSS THE SKY. THE ANIMATION SHOWS A SUBSET OF THE LAT GAMMA-RAY RECORDS NOW AVAILABLE FOR MORE THAN 1,500 OBJECTS IN A NEW, CONTINUALLY UPDATED REPOSITORY. OVER 90% OF THESE SOURCES ARE A TYPE OF GALAXY CALLED A BLAZAR, POWERED BY THE ACTIVITY OF A SUPERMASSIVE BLACK HOLE. view more 

CREDIT: NASA'S MARSHALL SPACE FLIGHT CENTER/DANIEL KOCEVSKI

Cosmic fireworks, invisible to our eyes, fill the night sky. We can get a glimpse of this elusive light show thanks to the Large Area Telescope (LAT) aboard NASA’s Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope, which observes the sky in gamma rays, the highest-energy form of light.

This animation shows the gamma-ray sky’s frenzied activity during a year of observations from February 2022 to February 2023. The pulsing circles represent just a subset of more than 1,500 light curves – records of how sources change in brightness over time – collected by the LAT over nearly 15 years in space.

Thanks to the work of an international team of astronomers, this data is now publicly available in a continually updated interactive library. A paper about the repository was published March 15, 2023, in The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series.

“We were inspired to put this database together by astronomers who study galaxies and wanted to compare visible and gamma-ray light curves over long time scales,” said Daniel Kocevski, a repository co-author and an astrophysicist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. “We were getting requests to process one object at a time. Now the scientific community has access to all the analyzed data for the whole catalog.”

Over 90% of the sources in the dataset are blazars, central regions of galaxies hosting active supermassive black holes that produce powerful particle jets pointed almost directly at Earth. Ground-based observatories, like the National Science Foundation’s IceCube Neutrino Observatory in Antarctica, can sometimes detect high-energy particles produced in these jets. Blazars are important sources for multimessenger astronomy, where scientists use combinations of light, particles, and space-time ripples to study the cosmos.

“In 2018, astronomers announced a candidate joint detection of gamma rays and a high-energy particle called a neutrino from a blazar for the first time, thanks to Fermi LAT and IceCube,” said co-author Michela Negro, an astrophysicist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “Having the historical light curve database could lead to new multimessenger insights into past events.”

In the animation, each frame represents three days of observations. Each object's magenta circle grows as it brightens and shrinks as it dims. Some objects fluctuate throughout the entire year. The reddish orange band running across the middle of the sky is the central plane of our Milky Way galaxy, a consistent gamma-ray producer. Lighter colors there indicate a brighter glow. The yellow circle shows the Sun’s apparent annual trajectory across the sky.

Processing the full catalog required about three months, or more than 400 computer years of processing time distributed over 1,000 nodes on a computer cluster located at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory in Menlo Park, California.

The LAT, Fermi’s primary instrument, scans the entire sky every three hours. It detects gamma rays with energies ranging from 20 million to over 300 billion electron volts. For comparison, the energy of visible light mostly falls between 2 to 3 electron volts.

The Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope is an astrophysics and particle physics partnership managed by Goddard. Fermi was developed in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy, with important contributions from academic institutions and partners in France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, and the United States.

Largest catalog of exploding stars now available


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AT MANOA

Celestial phenomena that change with time such as exploding stars, mysterious objects that suddenly brighten and variable stars are a new frontier in astronomical research, with telescopes that can rapidly survey the sky revealing thousands of these objects.

The largest data release of relatively nearby supernovae (colossal explosions of stars), containing three years of data from the University of Hawaiʻi Institute for Astronomy’s (IfA) Pan-STARRS telescope atop Haleakalā on Maui, is publicly available via the Young Supernova Experiment (YSE). The project, which began in 2019, surveyed more than 1,500 square degrees of sky every three days, and discovered thousands of new cosmic explosions and other astrophysical transients, dozens of them just days or hours after exploding.

The newly-released data contains information on nearly 2,000 supernovae and other luminous variable objects with observations in multiple colors. It is also the first to extensively use the multi-color imaging to classify the supernovae and estimate their distances.

Astrophysicists use large imaging surveys—systematic studies of large areas of the sky over time—and different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum for many scientific goals. Some are used to study distant galaxies and how they evolve over cosmic time, or look at specific regions of the sky that are especially important, such as the Andromeda Galaxy. 

"Pan-STARRS produces a steady stream of transient discoveries, observing large areas of the sky every clear night with two telescopes,” said Mark Huber, a senior researcher at IfA. “With over a decade of observations, Pan-STARRS operates one of the best calibrated systems in astronomy, with a detailed reference image of the static sky visible from Haleakalā. This enables rapid discovery and follow-up of supernovae and other transient events, well suited for programs like YSE to build up the sample required for analysis and this significant data release."

YSE is designed to find energetic astrophysical “transient” sources such as supernovae, tidal disruption events and kilonovae (extremely energetic explosions). These transients evolve quickly, rising to their maximum brightness and then fading away after a few days or months.

Multi-institution collaboration

The images from Pan-STARRS are transferred to UH’s Information Technology Center for initial processing and scientific calibration by the Pan-STARRS Image Processing Pipeline. Higher-level processing, detailed analysis and storage was then performed using computing systems at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications’ (NCSA) Center for Astrophysical Surveys (CAPS), the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC), and the Dark Cosmology Centre (DARK) at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.

 

The survey and the tools used to analyze the data are critical precursors to the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, a new 8.4-meter telescope being built in Chile. Rubin Observatory will survey the entire sky every three nights, discovering so many variable and exploding objects that it will be impossible to obtain detailed follow-up observations. The ability to classify these objects from the survey data alone will be vital to choosing the most interesting ones for astronomers to target with other telescopes. 

Gautham Narayan, deputy director of CAPS, is leading the cosmological analysis for the data sample and former CAPS graduate fellow Patrick Aleo is lead author of the paper, “The Young Supernova Experiment Data Release 1 (YSE DR1): Light Curves and Photometric Classification of 1975 Supernovae.”

“Much of the time-domain universe is uncharted. We still do not know the progenitor systems of many of the most common classes of transients, such as type Ia supernovae, while still using these sources to try and understand the expansion history of our universe,” Narayan said. “We’ve also seen one electromagnetic counterpart to a binary neutron star merger. There are many kinds of transients that are theoretically predicted, but have never been seen at all.”

Ken Chambers, Pan-STARRS director, added that “this collaboration with the Young Supernova Experiment makes exceptional use of Pan-STARRS’ ability to routinely survey the sky for transient phenomena and moving objects. We have provided an unprecedented sample of young supernovae discovered before their peak luminosity that will be an important resource for supernova researchers and cosmologists for many years. Looking ahead, Pan-STARRS will remain a crucial resource in the Northern Hemisphere to complement the Rubin Observatory in the Southern Hemisphere.”

This groundbreaking effort is a collaboration between UH, UCSC, DARK, NCSA and University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) and the University of Hawaiʻi. The collaboration used Hawaiʻi’s Pan-STARRS1 telescope and data pipeline to collect and process the images, DARK’s analysis of the data on its computing cluster, UCSC’s organization of the survey and data hosting, and NCSA and UIUC’s analysis.

 

Researchers reveal the disturbances of the Tonga volcanic eruption












Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF CHINA

Recently, a team led by Prof. LEI Jiuhou from University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the collaborators revealed the notable evidence of the dramatic thermospheric disturbances and global upper thermospheric perturbations of Tonga eruption (15 January, 2022), and confirmed that the impact of volcanic eruption has outreached the ionosphere and creeps into the thermospheric density up to 500 km satellite orbiting altitudes. This study was published in Geophysical Research Letters.

Tonga volcanic eruption significantly redistributed the global neutral density 500 km above the ground, with higher density in the antipode hemisphere and lower density in the volcanic eruption hemisphere.

Researchers discovered that this eruption stimulated thermosphere atmospheric fluctuations with multiple wave modes in the speed range of 200-450 m/s. Thermosphere atmospheric fluctuations propagate globally in concentric circles centered on the Tonga volcano, and some wave models can propagate and converge to the antipode of the volcano, and further diverge from the antipode to continue propagation.  

Researchers believed that in accordance with the characteristics of propagation, thermosphere atmospheric fluctuations may be related to the upward transmission of energy from gravitational waves, Lamb waves and tsunami waves in the lower atmosphere. 

This study initiates to provide the direct effect of the volcanic eruption on thermospheric density, which may expand the understanding of the interactions between the Earth's spheres from the lithosphere upward to the thermosphere. 

Honey bees receive flight instruction and vector source by following dance

Peer-Reviewed Publication

CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES HEADQUARTERS

A honey bee is sucking on the flowers 

IMAGE: A HONEY BEE IS SUCKING ON THE FLOWERS view more 

CREDIT: WANG ZHENGWEI

In a study published in PNAS, researchers from the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden (XTBG) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin and Rutgers University showed that the dance of the returning honeybee forager conveys the direction and distance of the food source from the hive to the honeycomb surface, a kind of map—a representation of where the food source is.  

The dance communication is much richer than previously thought, decoding the vector information into a map-like representation of the explored space, according to the researchers. 

Honeybees (Apis mellifera carnica) are the only non-human animals that communicate navigational information through a symbolic form of information transfer. Successful returning foragers perform a waggle dance to indicate the direction and distance of the food. However, the possibility that the interpretation of the dance refers to stored terrain information had not been previously considered, let alone experimentally demonstrated. 

In this study, the researchers introduced a new method in which bees have no feeder experience recruited by dancing bees, were captured and transported to release sites far from the hive before flying the vector flight, rendering the flight instruction they received from the waggle dance worse than useless. However, most of the recruited bees sooner or later gravitated toward the true location of the food source.  

"The courses taken by the displaced recruits towards the food satisfy the operational definition of a map: A representation of the spatial relationships between mapped objects (possibly including the horizon profiles) that allows a navigator to set a course to any location within the map's frame of reference from any other location within that frame of reference," said Dr. WANG Zhengwei, first author of the study. 

The symbols used (body movements in the dark hive on a vertical comb surface) are rather simple, but they allow the receiving bee to derive a representation of the target location. Because foraging bees frequently switch between dancing and dance following, thus the dance message is not just a flight instruction; it is part of a navigational conversation about where the food is and how to get to there. 

"Our results add new information to the understanding of symbolic communication through the waggle dance. By following the dance, recruits receive two messages, a polar flight instruction (bearing and distance from the hive) and a Cartesian-location vector that allows them to approach the source from anywhere in their familiar territory," said WANG.

Honey bees are sucking on a flower.

CREDIT

WANG Zhengwei

Stock market forces shown to drive cryptocurrency returns

Cryptocurrencies appear more responsive to stock market decline than to its growth

Peer-Reviewed Publication

NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

Having examined the impact of various factors on cryptocurrency returns, HSE economists found that fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices can be better explained by equity market risks than by factors specific to the crypto market, suggesting greater linkages between cryptocurrency and equity markets than previously believed. The study is published in a special issue of International Finance Review.

In recent years, cryptocurrencies have become a staple of investor portfolios. But since cryptocurrencies differ significantly from conventional assets, economists have been trying to understand which factors affect cryptocurrency returns, whether the crypto market offers higher returns for increased price volatility, and to what extent the stock and crypto markets influence each other.

Previous studies have examined a broad spectrum of factors including fluctuations in exchange rates and precious metal prices, the value of Bitcoin as the largest cryptocurrency, macroeconomic and network factors, the age and capitalisation of specific cryptocurrencies, their sensitivity to declines in other crypto rates, and more, but the results were not definitive.

'Despite crypto being a relatively young market, academic literature has already introduced multifactor models that can explain cryptocurrency returns by their sensitivity to risk factors such as size, uncertainty, volatility, and momentum. These factors are specific to the cryptocurrency market, which is considered independently from other financial markets. In contrast, our study examines both the factors specific to the cryptocurrency market and the most common equity market factors to explain returns on cryptocurrencies.' - Victoria Dobrynskaya, co-author of the paper, Assistant Professor, HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences.

The new study examined a comprehensive sample of nearly 2,000 cryptocurrencies with a market capitalisation of over $1 million. The authors gathered daily price data for years between 2014 and 2020 and computed weekly returns for each cryptocurrency in the sample, provided that their capitalisation was sufficiently high (meaning the currencies were not necessarily included in the sample for the entire period). The study period began when a sufficient number of large cryptocurrencies were available for analysis (more than 20 in 2014) and encompassed the ups and downs of the cryptocurrency market and the initial year of the pandemic. As such, the findings are expected to reflect real trends rather than short-term market fluctuations. The researchers gathered similar data for the global stock market.

'We conduct a comparative analysis of factors of both markets and compare cryptocurrency factors to their equity counterparts. For example, we compare how the volatility factor of the cryptocurrency market is related to the volatility factor of the stock market. We then test the explanatory power of all factors and run so-called ‘factor horse races’. It turns out that the cryptocurrency market is not isolated from the stock market, particularly so after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the primary stock market risks—especially the downside risk—are more significant than the crypto market risks for explaining cryptocurrency returns cross-sectionally.' - Victoria Dobrynskaya, co-author of the paper, Assistant Professor, HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences

The findings confirm the high volatility of cryptocurrencies. Even after excluding a small proportion of outliers, the weekly returns on individual cryptocurrencies have ranged from as small as -100% (indicating that the price dropped to zero within a week) to as large as 7189%. However, when compared to the equity market, the cryptocurrency market exhibits significantly higher average and median returns, with annual rates of 88% and 73%, respectively, as opposed to 12% and 20%.

The researchers used the collected data to construct cryptocurrency-specific factors (market, size, momentum, volatility) using similar methodology, which is common for the equity market. They used both sets of factors (equity- and cryptocurrency-specific) to explain cryptocurrency returns. Their calculations reveal that the stock market risk plays a more important role than the cryptocurrency market risk, even though both risks have a significant impact on returns. Cryptocurrencies appear more responsive to stock market decline than to its growth. However, the authors did not find any significant correlation between returns on cryptocurrencies and other commonly used factors in the stock market, such as size, value, profitability, and stock volatility.

On the other hand, factors such as cryptocurrency size and uncertainty of the cryptocurrency market do have a significant impact.

According to the authors' estimates, a portfolio that invests in small cryptocurrencies and sells the largest cryptocurrencies in a short position has the average annual return of 61% in the studied period. However, the momentum portfolio has been shown to generate a positive, but statistically insignificant return. This was mainly due to a few past-loser cryptocurrencies that have experienced significant growth in recent years.

Additionally, the authors demonstrated that factors associated with the global stock market or the stock market of North America have a stronger explanatory power for the cryptocurrency market, compared to factors associated with the stock markets of Europe and Asia.

Helping young Africans innovate for climate resilience

Business Announcement

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

Africa is the continent that will be most adversely affected by climate change. IIASA researchers are collaborating on Yoma OR – an ambitious project aimed at helping young people grow their digital skills as a first step on a journey from learning to earning.

Eight young innovators from Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Uganda are gathering at CERN in Geneva this week to present prototypes of projects that tackle the impacts of climate change on their communities. They have been selected from several hundred that pitched projects on the Goodwall social media platform. They have been coached online over six months to take their projects from idea to prototype. They will be meeting potential partners and sponsors from local international organizations and sustainable finance institutions. This is thanks to Yoma OR, an initiative that enables young Africans to build and transform their future by unlocking their hidden potential. The young innovators will also use their week in Geneva to plan the deployment of their projects in their communities over the coming months, with the help of experts in crowdsourcing, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technologies from IIASA, partners of Crowd4SDG project and several other leading research institutions in Europe and Africa.

Launched in June 2022 for a two-year pilot period, the Yoma (youth agency marketplace) Operational Research (Yoma OR) project, aims to support African countries in developing learning to earning opportunities by involving local youth – growing their digital skills while finding concrete answers to the climate resilience challenges their communities face. The project was launched under the impetus of UNICEF and is led by the University of Geneva (UNIGE) with several partners, including IIASA. A core objective of the project is to integrate citizen science methodologies into the Yoma platform. This week in Geneva, first results from the project are being presented by the youth innovators at CERN in Geneva, in two events, one organized by the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) and the other by CERN.

“Projects of this nature are often designed in the Global North, and then transposed to African communities. This can however take a long time to implement and the approaches used are sometimes not suited to local needs. What makes the Yoma OR project different, is the fact that the projects supported by the project partners are developed by young Africans who use digital citizen science tools to provide data that can be useful for tackling climate resilience,” explains Dilek Fraisl, a researcher in the Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability Research Group of the IIASA Advancing Systems Analysis Program.

To encourage young people to participate, the project issues tokens called Zltos, a dematerialized currency created by a youth team at RLabs, a South-African partner of the project. On the Yoma platform, young people can exchange Zltos for opportunities to train in digital technologies, for example by paying for certificates for courses on Coursera, an online platform that offers free courses for which the certificates of achievement are sold commercially. In this way, young people can officially include the skills gained in their digital portfolios of achievements.

“We are very excited to be able to contribute to the YOMA ecosystem with our citizen science mobile app technologies to on the one hand improve the information needed locally for improved decision making while at the same time rewarding young people in Africa for their community activities by linking the apps to a token system,” says IIASA Strategic Initiatives Program Director, Steffen Fritz.

To achieve its goals, the project builds on an online training program tested over the last three years, enabling youth around the globe to develop citizen science projects for climate resilience. This online training program was developed through the European Crowd4SDG project. In this regard, the Yoma OR partners are also collaborating with Goodwall, a social media platform on which young people from all walks of life can present their ideas for tackling climate change and other challenges by posting short videos. Teams assembled from the most promising video pitches are then coached through a multi-stage innovation process. 

One example is a project from Nigeria called Donate Water, which specifically aims to address the often dilapidated state of mechanical water pumps in rural regions. The goal, over the next nine months with the help of Yoma OR partners, is to test a prototype phone app that can be used by young people in the affected communities to map the region in terms of water resources. The partners will help measure the quality of this data, while encouraging local and national authorities, NGOs, and companies to invest in appropriate water pumps where the need is greatest.

The research partners are addressing multiple research questions in a hands-on manner. The Artificial Intelligence Research Institute of the Spanish National Research Council (IIIA-CSIC) in Barcelona, for instance, is testing an artificial intelligence technique to put young people into well balanced teams, both in terms of skills and personalities. The Learning Planet Institute of the Université Paris Cité uses collective intelligence methodologies to assess the effectiveness of the innovation process the project is testing, but also the bonds that are forged when young people work online in teams sometimes dispersed around the world, and the impact on the wellbeing of these young people. In Austria, IIASA, Caliber Consult, a company specializing in Blockchain based technical solutions, and the Austrian Blockchain Center (ABC) are developing the methods needed to validate tokens with block chain technology and the quality of data obtained through public participation.

To ensure that the projects have impact, the partners are developing an innovation cycle that can be easily implemented by universities in the Global South. In this regard, they are collaborating with the Citizen Science Africa Association (CitSci Africa) to identify local actors who can incubate the projects developed through the online training cycle. CitSci Africa is part of a 'network of networks' for citizen science, the Citizen Science Global Partnership, for which IIASA is the host and leads the secretariat.

Teams of young innovators whose projects have been selected for Yoma, will attend the Geneva Trialogue at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Switzerland on 16 March and the Final Conference of the Crowd4SDG project on 17 March. The Trialogue is an event organized by the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) and UNIGE, focused on Open Innovation for Education in the context of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Roundtable discussions, a workshop, and dedicated hackathons at the event aim to put youth teams coming to the event from Africa in contact with the right partners from the United Nations, from academia, and from private industry, to help teams amplify their impact regionally and nationally. The Final Conference of the Crowd4SDG project will discuss the impact of citizen science on the UN SDG. The event will take place at CERN and is open to the public.

The Yoma OR project is sponsored by Swiss philanthropic foundation Fondation Botnar through Generation Unlimited. Anchored in UNICEF, the public-private-youth partnership F aims to skill and connect young people to opportunities in employment, entrepreneurship and social impact.

 

About IIASA:

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first century. Our findings provide valuable options to policymakers to shape the future of our changing world. IIASA is independent and funded by prestigious research funding agencies in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. www.iiasa.ac.at

Global climate data insufficiently explain composition of local plant species

Peer-Reviewed Publication

MARTIN-LUTHER-UNIVERSITÄT HALLE-WITTENBERG

The global climate influences regional plant growth – but not to the same extent in all habitats. This finding was made by geobotanists at Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU) after analysing over 300,000 European vegetation plots. Their conclusion: No general prediction can be made about the effects of climate change on the Earth's vegetation; instead, the effects depend to a large degree on local conditions and the habitat under investigation. The findings were published in "Nature Communications".

Ever since Alexander von Humboldt’s voyages of exploration, it has been clear that the characteristics of plants depend heavily on the Earth’s climate zones. For example, giant trees and plants with enormous leaves can be found in tropical rainforests, while desert or subarctic vegetation grows lower to the ground and has smaller leaves to withstand drought or cold temperatures. Climate change is causing these zones to shift - raising questions as to how higher temperatures and altered periods of precipitation affect the composition of plant species at a given location. "Studies have found relatively weak correlations between global climate gradients and the characteristics of local plant communities," explains Dr Stephan Kambach, a research associate in the Department of Geobotany at MLU. "It is possible that the global effects are being obscured by local factors such as plant composition, soil conditions, microclimate, groundwater levels or human land use." 

To get to the heart of this phenomenon, the researchers from Halle have compiled over 300,000 vegetation plots from all over Europe that contain complete information on the predominant plant species and climate data. This has been done as part of the Biodiversa programme "FeedBaCks". The raw data were taken from the CHELSA climate database and the European Vegetation Archive (EVA), which includes over 1.7 million vegetation plots of nearly 14,000 plant species. "First, we examined nine main types of habitats, for example forests, moorlands or wetlands," explains Kambach. "Then we subdivided these habitats into two additional sub-levels, for example deciduous forests on the second level and poplar floodplain forests on the third level." In order to compare the vegetation in the different habitats, four key vegetation characteristics were defined: height of growth, leaf area, root length and seed mass. 

Stephan Kambach used linear regression to investigate the influence of climate variables, especially temperature and precipitation, on vegetation. Linear regression is a statistical tool that can be used to describe major dependencies between influencing and target variables. The analysis revealed some surprising results: When all vegetation types are considered, climate is a significant predictor of plant characteristics. In the Mediterranean region or along Europe’s coasts, plants grow taller on average, produce more seed mass and have longer roots, however their leaf area is smaller. A look at the individual habitats, however, reveals exceptions: In forests, for example, plant height decreases as temperatures increase, in wetlands the leaf area is getting larger, and in moorlands the roots are getting shorter. "Here the opposing influences between the trends at the global and local levels become apparent," explains Professor Helge Bruelheide, who heads the FeedBaCks project at MLU and is also a member of the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig. "In southern regions, growth is generally facilitated by a higher light intensity and longer growing seasons, however decreased availability of water can lead to the opposite effect in certain habitats. In contrast, low levels of precipitation seem to have little effect on wetlands." 

The more one "zooms in" on the habitats, the harder it is to make generalisations about climate effects. "When it comes to leaf area and root length, climate appears to have a strong effect in more tightly defined habitats," says Kambach. "But what we see in the main habitat types is not necessarily reflected in the subtypes." For example, the analysis revealed that the mean height of growth in grasslands increases towards the Mediterranean, but not in seasonally wet meadows. The situation is similar in wetlands: Here, plants grow taller as temperatures increase, but this is not the case in exposed riparian zones. 

"We were able to show that the global climate is definitely a significant indicator for local plant communities," states Kambach. "However, if we want to prepare for changing climate conditions, especially in agriculture and forestry, we have to look very closely at habitats with similar floristic compositions, a common evolutionary history, and comparable environmental conditions."

A total of seven European partner institutions are taking part in the FeedBaCks project (Feedbacks between Biodiversity and Climate, biodiv-feedbacks.org), which is coordinated at WSL in Zurich. The general aim of the project is to investigate the feedback mechanisms of biodiversity on climate. 

 

Study: Kambach S. et al., Climate-trait relationships exhibit strong habitat specificity in plant communities across Europe. Nature Communications (2023). doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-36240-6

The war on sugar: How can soda manufacturers reduce sugar in products without endangering sales?

News from the Journal of Marketing

Peer-Reviewed Publication

AMERICAN MARKETING ASSOCIATION

Researchers from University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and University of Amsterdam published a new Journal of Marketing study that examines how sugar reduction strategies affect new product sales.

The study, forthcoming in the Journal of Marketing, is titled “A War on Sugar? Effects of Reduced Sugar Content and Package Size in The Soda Category” and is authored by Kristopher O. Keller and Jonne Y. Guyt.

The United States has a sugar problem. Excessive sugar consumption induces severe illnesses that increase health care costs. Not surprisingly, about 58% of U.S. adults indicate a desire to cut back on sugar to avoid obesity, diabetes, and heart conditions. Research shows that reducing sugar in consumer-packaged goods by a modest 8%–10% could lead to nationwide savings of more than $110 billion in health care costs.

Keller explains that “Despite clear evidence of the negative consequences of sugar consumption, consumers’ intake has steadily increased over the years. This suggests that it is not sufficient for consumers to want to decrease their sugar intake. Companies need to offer appealing products that can help reduce sugar consumption.” Soda manufactures such as PepsiCo have been reducing sugars in their products over the years and are increasingly launching smaller package sizes of well-known sugar products to appeal to health-conscious consumers. However, soda companies have to strike a delicate balance between sugar reduction and protecting and increasing their sales—two motives that will conflict if consumers reject reduced-sugar alternatives. As the war on sugar rages on, soda manufacturers seek to find the best solution to maintain sales without harming society.

Sugar Reduction or Package Size Reduction?

The researchers examine two sugar-reduction efforts:

  • Sugar content reduction that involves launching a new product that contains less sugar (or no sugar) compared to current products. This tactic is currently being implemented by all major players in the soda sector. For example, in 2011 PepsiCo introduced a new product called Pepsi Next, which contains about half the amount of sugar of Pepsi’s regular products.
  • Package size reduction that involves brands introducing smaller package sizes that help consumers cut back on their sugar intake. The brand’s average (relative) sugar content remains the same, but consumers’ absolute intake diminishes. Prominent use of this tactic appeared in the introduction of 7.5-ounce sizes by many soda brands.

The study examines the direct effects of these sugar-reduction strategies while also proposing that their effectiveness depends on three sets of product-related strategy decisions involving labeling, branding, and packaging. These decisions have important moderating effects on how the sugar reduction strategy affects sales.

  • First, with respect to labeling, brand manufacturers must decide whether to feature claims of the presence or absence of (un)healthy ingredients, which can signal enjoyment and/or healthiness. For example, Pepsi emphasizes enjoyment and highlights the use of sugar in some cases (e.g., “Made with Real Sugar”), whereas Mountain Dew has highlighted the absence of sugars in several others (e.g., “Zero Sugar”).
  • Second, branding decisions determine whether reduced sugar products are launched under a mini or diet sub brand or the main brand. For example, Coca-Cola recently launched zero-sugar products under the Coca-Cola name, not a sub-brand such as Coke Zero.
  • Third, packaging decisions, such as the number of products per pack, also matter. Single items limit consumption, which is consistent with package size reduction, whereas multipacks give consumers stock for continued consumption.

Health vs. Enjoyment

The analysis of almost 130,000 product additions by nearly 80 brands over 11 years in the U.S. soda category shows that, on average, sugar content reductions perform comparable to similar, nonreduced products, while smaller package sizes perform better than regular sizes. It also finds that sugar-reduction efforts work substantially better if they do not overemphasize the reduced sugar content in new additions; that is, sugar reductions perform better without a dedicated sub-brand and with enjoyment-oriented claims rather than health claims. As an example, Coca-Cola’s Zero Sugar product was redesigned in 2021 to closely resemble “regular” Coca-Cola rather than the earlier “Coca Cola Zero.” Package size reductions perform better if presented as a fun, high-quality product rather than a stern, healthy alternative. Using single items rather than multi packs further supports this positioning.

How does sugar reduction contribute to society? “An average package size reduction reduces incremental category sugar sales by more than 20%. With the average soda product being close to 50 fluid ounces in size, there is ample room for product (size) adjustments that can reduce consumers’ average sugar exposure,” says Guyt.

Full article and author contact information available at: https://doi.org/10.1177/00222429231152181

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