It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thursday, April 06, 2023
China’s Coal Boom Is Undermining Global Phase-Out Efforts
New coal capacity under development in China increased by 38% in 2022, with 366 GW of new coal generation capacity planned.
While China’s planned coal capacity climbed, the rest of the world saw its coal capacity decrease by 20% to 172 GW.
While China is bringing on significantly more coal capacity than any other country, there are increases across other countries such as India, Turkey, and Indonesia.
China is building or planning to build some 366 GW in new coal generation capacity, accounting for some 68% of global planned new coal capacity as of 2022.
This is according to a new report by climate think tank Global Energy Monitor, which also found that China accounted for more than half of the new global coal generation capacity that came online last year.
Outside China, coal generation capacity is shrinking, with 2.2 GW getting retired in Europe last year and 13.5 GW of capacity retired in the United States—the highest rate of coal power plant retirement globally.
Total new coal power plant additions last year amounted to 45.5 GW but with closures, the net additions came in at 19.5 GW.
"The more new projects come online, the steeper the cuts and commitments need to be in the future. At this rate, the transition away from existing and new coal isn’t happening fast enough to avoid climate chaos," said the lead author of the report, Flora Champenois.
Chances are that the transition will continue not to happen fast enough because China and other countries, most notably India, Turkey, and Indonesia, plan to bring significant new coal capacity online.
According to Global Energy Monitor, this will throw the transition off course because “the global pace of retirements needs to move four and half times faster in order to put the world on track to phasing out coal power by 2040, as required to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.”
Keeping the transition on track, in accordance with Paris Agreement decarbonization targets, all existing coal power generation capacity in the developed world would need to be retired by 2030 and all other coal capacity in the rest of the world would need to go by 2040.
Two new nuclear reactors are expected to come online at Georgia Power's Vogtle plant.
The new reactors will give a boost to U.S. nuclear power growth, which has stalled for the past 20 years.
The Vogtle project has experienced years of delays and cost overruns.
Nuclear power has been a source of electricity in the United States for more than 60 years. The first nuclear power plant in the U.S. was the Experimental Breeder Reactor I in Idaho, which started up in 1951.
The Atomic Energy Act of 1954 established a regulatory framework for the development of nuclear power, and in 1957 the Shippingport Atomic Power Station in Pennsylvania became the first commercial nuclear power plant in the world.
The early years of nuclear power in the United States were marked by significant growth. During the 1960s, nuclear power plants were built across the country. In 1973, the United States had 29 operating reactors, producing over 16,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity. By the end of the decade, that number had grown to 60 operating reactors, producing over 50,000 MW.
However, the industry would suffer its first major setback in 1979, when the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania experienced a partial meltdown. This accident resulted in a small release of radioactive material into the environment. While there were no deaths or injuries from the incident, it led to increased scrutiny and regulation, and it increased opposition of nuclear power plants.
Since Three Mile Island, there have been major accidents at Chernobyl in 1986 and Fukushima, Japan in 2011 that had a significant impact on global nuclear power growth.
Global Nuclear Power Generation 1965 to 2021. ROBERT RAPIER
The U.S. has consistently been the world’s leading producer of nuclear energy, with a 29% global share in 2021. Nuclear energy is responsible for 8% of all U.S. energy consumption. However, after rapid growth from 1965 t0 2000, nuclear power growth in the U.S. has been stalled for the past 20 years.
U.S. Nuclear Power Production 1965-2021. ROBERT RAPIER
Prior to this year, only one new nuclear reactor come had online since 1996. The Watts Bar Unit 1 came online in 1996 in Tennessee, and the Watts Bar Unit 2 came online in 2016.
That should change this year, as Georgia Power, a subsidiary of Atlanta-based Southern Co. prepares to start up two new reactors. The reactors at Plant Vogtle, southeast of Augusta, Georgia, were approved by the Georgia Public Service Commission in 2009. The reactors are two Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear units with a capacity of about 1,117 MW each.
The first reactor was supposed to start generating power in 2016, but the project has suffered years of delays and billions in cost overruns. But, last month Vogtle Unit 3 began to split atoms, as startup testing got underway. Commercial operation is expected to commence in May or June. Unit 4 could start up as early as November of this year. So, nuclear power should finally see a boost in the U.S. this year.
According to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), a number of new reactors were approved in the U.S. over the past decade or so. But most of those were cancelled by the applicants in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Beyond Vogtle, there are no more nuclear reactors under construction in the U.S.
Given the significant delays and cost overruns seen in the Vogtle project, it may be a long time before we see another conventional nuclear reactor built in the U.S.
The next generation will likely see the rise of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). SMRs are designed to be more flexible than traditional nuclear reactors. They can be used to generate electricity in remote locations or to replace retiring coal-fired power plants. SMRs are also designed to be safer and more efficient than traditional nuclear reactors.
In January 2023, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH), Ontario Power Generation (OPG), SNC-Lavalin and Aecon announced a contract for the deployment of a BWRX-300 SMR at OPG’s Darlington New Nuclear Project site. This is the first commercial contract for a grid-scale SMR in North America, and it represents a significant step towards the adoption of SMRs.
Last Saturday, April 1, (yes we’re aware of the date) Southern Company’s largest operating subsidiary, Georgia Power, announced that the first of its two nuclear plants under construction, Unit 3 of the new Alvin W. Vogtle nuclear power station, had been synchronized to the grid and was producing electricity for consumers. All technicalities aside this means the plant is now complete, loaded with fuel, irradiated, and producing electricity for commercial customers. Its companion, unit 4, presently undergoing hot functional testing, is expected to enter commercial operation either later this year or early next year. Together these two Westinghouse-designed AP 1000 reactors (four loop PWRs) will contribute about 2400 MWs to Southern Company's existing nuclear generating fleet which includes Plant Vogtle Units 1&2, Plant Hatch (also in Georgia) as well as Alabama Power’s Farley unit.
As an aside, we should point out that Southern Company has a tradition of naming these facilities after its CEO’s and Board Chairmen. Georgia Power’s website notes that, Mr. Vogtle, apart from his years of executive service to the company, was a POW in the second world war. His numerous, ultimately successful escape attempts were incorporated into the movie, The Great Escape. One would’ve thought that being portrayed by Steve McQueen would’ve been enough. Apparently not.
Much has already been written (including by us) about how costly the plant is and how lengthy the construction process. Stated simply the build time was twice what they expected and the final costs look to be triple the initial estimates. All we know publicly is that the co-owner, Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia (MEAG )complained a year ago about the plant costing in excess of $30 billion. To that figure we have to add the $3.7 billion paid by Westinghouse as a settlement to the co-owners as part of Westinghouse’s bankruptcy. Let’s call it a $36 billion plant costing $15,000 per kw installed. (A new, large natural gas fired power plant by comparison would cost about $2500 per kw.) No matter what you compare it to this is an extremely expensive power plant. One major mitigating financial factor is that Georgia Power only owns about 50% of the unit. The remainder is split between three municipal entities: Oglethorpe Power (30%), Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia (17.7%), and Dalton Utilities (2.2%). A similar sharing arrangement exists for the other nuclear stations as well. In all fairness, we should point out that both of Southern Company's previous nuclear projects, which were completed in the mid to late 1970s, came in at a cost of well under $1,000 per kw. In fact, Georgia Power’s website boasts that the two GE Mark 1 BWRs at Plant Hatch cost $938 million for 1800 MWs. Our point here is that going into the Plant Vogtle construction process, Southern Company had strong municipal partners, a relatively favorable construction experience, as well as considerable operating expertise in nuclear power.
But before we move on we should recall that this nuclear construction episode was responsible for: 1) the bankruptcy of Westinghouse and Toshiba (for signing fixed price contracts), 2) the cancellation of its twin- —the VC Summer nuclear plant in South Carolina owned by SCANA— after spending $8 billion, 3) several senior SCANA executives were sent to prison (presumably for lying to investors about escalating plant costs), 4) SCANA was soon sold to Dominion Resources shortly thereafter, 5) the governor of SC threatened to privatize the Santee Cooper Electric Co-op (Summer’s co-owner) and fired its chief executive, 6) while exposing Georgia regulators as being highly prejudicial in favor corporate versus the public’s interest (the regulatory disallowances Southern Company would face for a financial boondoggle of this magnitude would be financially crippling in many other state jurisdictions). Co-op leaders in both South Carolina and Georgia felt confident in 2008 that they would get a piece of a new, larger nuclear unit that would cost $10 billion or less.
One major impact of a nuclear construction program gone awry like this is that it makes the rest of the utility industry skittish about following suit with additional new, gigawatt scale nuclear projects. Georgia Power notes that Plant Vogtle is the first US nuclear power station to be completed in thirty years. The real question for us is who’ll agree to finance the second? We don’t think it’s a coincidence that small modular reactors (SMRs) are receiving considerable attention since they literally portray themselves as the opposite of Plant Vogtle’s experience with on time and rapid construction. Part of the appeal of SMRs right now are in reaction to construction and financing difficulties at huge nuclear megaprojects in the US, France, and the UK. But this is not necessarily a good thing. We may want large scale nuclear power plants in the mix if we want low-carbon, gigawatt scale base load options. All we can say is that the nuclear power industry continues to alter its appeal, now presenting itself as the best utility scale, low carbon option.
By Leonard Hyman and William Tilles for Oilprice.com
Tesla's Pivot Away From Rare Earths Could Push Other Automakers To Follow Suit
Rare Earths MMI dropped by 15.5% in March, but prices began to rise again by the end of the month.
Tesla's shift away from rare earth metals in their motors could impact the automotive industry by hastening the development of alternatives for rare earth magnets.
The US is establishing regulations to secure a "made in America" supply chain for rare earth minerals which are considered strategic and critical materials due to their necessity in many modern technologies.
The Rare Earths MMI (Monthly MetalMiner Index) dropped drastically again this month, suffering a 15.5% decline. Despite this, downward price action began to slow down and flatten around March 16. As of March 30, prices began to rise again.
Further adding to the confusion was the fact that some components in the index traded flat. This included yttrium, samarium oxide and europium oxide. However, virtually every other part of the index dropped in price, some drastically. Ultimately, the ride between the beginning of March and April proved to be a roller coaster ride.
Tesla Could Impact the Rare Earths Industry
In last month’s MMI, MetalMiner discussed Tesla’s announcement that they will eliminate the use of rare earth elements in their engines. Instead, they plan to create a permanent magnet electric vehicle motor using zero rareearth elements. According to reports, Tesla’s primary reason for the decision is to battle ongoing, problematic supply chain issues.
However, some theories have since arisen. Some believe that Tesla’s shift away from rare earth metals could impact the automotive industry in multiple ways. For one, the race to develop alternatives for rare earth magnets, especially Chinese-sourced rare earths, could hasten dramatically. Unfortunately, China’s monopoly on the whole rare earth chain of supply, production, and workers will make it difficult to reduce dependency on the country entirely. However, a cadre of countries and companies remain determined to ween off Chinese rare earths, Tesla being a prime example.
Still, rare earth suppliers remain concerned that Tesla’s move could impact the rest of the EV industry. The main worry is that Tesla will influence other automotive companies relying on rare earths for their EV models to make a similar switch. Currently, the EV industry accounts for about 12% of global rare earth magnet use. Tesla’s next-gen motor will utilize a new power train that uses 75% less silicon carbide to produce. This technological leap forward could inspire other EV manufacturers to seek similar solutions, significantly reducing dependency on China across the industry.
U.S. Creating its Own Rare Earth Supply Chain
In other news, the U.S. has begun putting together its own rare earth supply chain network. The Biden administration considers rare earths to be a strategic, critical materials due to their necessity in many modern technologies. The U.S. government has established regulations to secure a “made in America” supply chain, and that includes commodities like rare earth minerals. The recent discovery of rare earths in southern Bitterroot Valley, Montana will contribute to this goal. Indeed, if the U.S. can continue to foster projects like this, a new domestic rare earths supply chain could arrive sooner than expected.
While the decisions to locate homegrown rare earths will likely prove the best option in the long run, the switch will not be easy. China currently supplies over 80% of the world’s refined rare earth supply. Neodymium, for example, is one of the world’s most commonly used rare earth types. Right now most neodymium is produced and exported by China. It could prove tricky to find enough non-Chinese neodymium to sustain the growing EV movement and power cell phones, headphones, and other electronics.
The U.S. also lacks many fully operational rare earth mines. Therefore, the focus should be on finding and developing more deposits like Bitterroot Valley, as such discoveries will prove crucial for developing a sustainable domestic supply chain.
By Jennifer Kary
Davie Named Third Shipyard in Canada’s National Shipbuilding Strategy
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing that Davie would be added to the shipbuilding program (Davie)
Canada officially added Davie to its National Shipbuilding Strategy (NSS) as the third shipyard designated to participate in the effort to renew and expand the Canadian Coast Guard and Royal Canadian Navy. The shipyard based in Quebec reports that the agreement will provide a minimum of 20 years of work with a minimum of C$8.5 billion (US$6.3 billion) in work.
“Today’s announcement is an important step in the government’s ongoing efforts to ensure that Canada has the modern and reliable ships it needs, especially as we adapt to the continued growth of commercial shipping and the increasing impacts of climate change on our communities,” the Prime Minister’s office said in the official announcement. “We will continue to create opportunities for workers and businesses in Canada’s marine industry while ensuring the brave members of the Canadian Coast Guard and the Royal Canadian Navy can continue to carry out their important work in the years to come.”
The designation as the third strategic partner is the first step for Davie to begin formal negotiations with the Canadian government for contracts under the shipbuilding initiative. The federal government announced in 2019 that it would seek to add a shipyard in addition to Seaspan Shipyards in British Columbia and Irving Shipbuilding in Nova Scotia to the long-term plan.
The initial phase of the program called for the construction of six icebreakers and one polar icebreaker for the Canadian Coast Guard as part of a plan that provides for the renewal of up to 18 new large ships built in Canadian shipyards. In 2019, the federal government said it planned to devote at least C$15.7 billion in funding to the shipbuilding program.
Speaking during a ceremony at the Davie shipyard, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said “Today’s announcement is bringing us one step closer to building the fleets for Canada’s future. Our strategic partnership with Chantier Davie will help ensure our Coast Guard is supported by modern, made-in-Canada vessels so it can continue to save lives, keep our waters secure, and protect the environment.”
The addition of Davie to the program comes after a multi-step qualification process. The government ran a competition requesting submissions and conducted third-party assessments of the shipyard’s infrastructure. The government calculates that Davie has already received over C$2.2 billion in contracts over the past decade, including the conversion of three medium interim icebreakers for the Coast Guard, refits for the Coast Guard and Navy, and currently the design and construction of two ferries for Transport Canada.
“This historic agreement puts the ‘National’ in National Shipbuilding Strategy and the federal government deserves much credit. Together, we will bridge a strategic shipbuilding gap and create guaranteed capacity for future fleet renewal at Canada’s largest shipbuilder,” said James Davies, President and CEO of Davie. “We can now get to work delivering the icebreakers Canada urgently needs to meet its growing responsibilities as an international Arctic presence, while fulfilling its critical southern wintertime mission to keep our economy flowing.”
Davie had already been pre-qualified as it was moving through the certification process and in May 2021 the federal government announced plans for a second polar icebreaker. Construction of the second ship was reportedly earmarked for Davie pending completion of the process. Seaspan had previously been awarded the contract for the first polar icebreaker.
The Canadian government estimates that it was awarded more than C$21 billion in shipbuilding-related contracts since 2012. Contracts awarded under the NSS are estimated to contribute on average nearly $2 billion annually to Canada’s GDP.
First US-Built SOV for Offshore Wind Marks 50% Completion Milestone
Ceremony marking the 50% completion milestone of the American-built SOV for offshore wind operations (Edison Chouest Offshore)
Louisiana shipbuilder Edison Chouest Offshore along with Ørsted and Eversource celebrated the construction progress on the first American-built offshore wind service operations vessel (SOV) during an event in Houma, Louisiana on April 4. The shipyard was marking the 50 percent completion milestone for the ECO Edison while the wind farm developers highlighted the benefits for the U.S. shipbuilding industry from the emerging wind power industry and the use of the expertise in offshore operations from the U.S. Gulf Coast.
The companies reported a year ago that work had begun on the first SOV which will be 262 feet long. It will provide accommodations for approximately 60 technicians and engineers for the operation and maintenance of Ørsted and Eversource’s Revolution Wind, South Fork Wind, and Sunrise Wind projects in the Northeast United States.
Edison Chouest reports that approximately 400 people are working on the construction of the vessel with more than 275,000 work hours having been logged to date. The vessel is being built at the assembly hall in Houma with support from the company’s yards in Florida and Mississippi. The two energy companies entered into a long-term charter agreement with Edison Chouest in October 2020 that provides for the shipyard to undertake the engineering, construction, and ultimately operate the U.S.-registered SOV.
“This first American service operations vessel represents the ingenuity of businesses like Edison Chouest to build upon their legacy in offshore energy and to supply a cutting-edge vessel that will allow workers to safely and effectively operate offshore,” said David Hardy, Group EVP and CEO Americas at Ørsted during yesterday’s event. “The offshore wind energy industry is utilizing the talented and expert Gulf Coast workforce, and we’re proud that this first-of-its-kind vessel will support the production of more American energy.”
Rendering of the completed ship due to enter service in 2024 (Ørsted)
According to the companies, the ECO Edison’s design focuses on passenger safety and comfort, enhanced maneuverability, extended offshore endurance, and reduced emissions. The steel for the vessel is coming from North Carolina while the main engines are being built in Illinois. The vessel will be powered by four Caterpillar 3512E EPA Tier 4 gensets, each rated for 1700 ekW. Voith Schneider was contracted for the propellers with rapid thrust and steering response that include roll reduction and other features to maximize station-keeping capabilities.
“We’re proud to put our expertise to work on such an important vessel for the offshore wind industry’s future American fleet,” said Gary Chouest, President and CEO of Edison Chouest Offshore. “Thanks to our decades of experience in offshore industries, our in-house engineers, and the hard work of more than 400 of our shipbuilders, we’re now more than 50 percent complete on this historic, specialized vessel that will serve as a model for the U.S. offshore wind industry and a homebase for American offshore wind technicians for years to come.”
The vessel, which is expected to be the first Jones Act-compliant wind farm SOV, is due to enter service in 2024. It will be based in Port Jefferson, New York to service the three wind farms.
Ørsted and Eversource highlighted that in addition to the charter for the ECO Edison, they will also be the first offshore wind developers to charter the Charybdis, the wind turbine installation vessel currently under construction at the Keppel AmFELS shipyard in Brownsville, Texas. The vessel is due for delivery later this year and will be owned by a subsidiary of Dominion Energy.
Brexit Passport Checks Lead to Lengthy Delays at Port of Dover
Three years after Britain left the European Union, the reimposition of customs checks at the Channel crossing is still upending port operations at peak travel times.
When Britain opted to leave the EU customs union, French officials began thoroughly checking the passports of British travelers, much as they would check the documents of any foreign nationals arriving from third countries. That manual process has had an impact on the throughput rate for cross-channel passenger transport, according to the Port of Dover, contributing to delays during surges in travel activity.
This occurred over the weekend as thousands of Britons headed to Europe by bus and ferry for their spring break vacations. The Port of Dover declared a state of emergency when a combination of bad weather, higher-than-expected traffic volume and customs delays on the French side led to some passenger buses experiencing a wait of up to 18 hours.
Port officials at Dover cited "lengthy French border processes and sheer volume" for the delays.
In an interview on Sky News on Sunday, Home Secretary Suella Braverman played down the disruption as a weather event. "I don’t think it’s fair to say that this is an adverse effect of Brexit . . . We’ve had many years now since leaving the EU, and there’s been, on the whole, very good operations and processes at the border," she said. Braverman was a leading proponent of the Brexit "Leave" campaign in the run-up to the referendum in 2016, and continued to run on delivering "Brexit opportunities" in the Tories' leadership contest last year.
On Monday, a spokesman for the administration of UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak allowed that passport controls played a role in the delay.
"We recognize there are new processes in place - that's why authorities were given a long time to prepare for the new checks," the spokesman said. "And we are in discussion with our French counterparts about how we can further improve the flow of traffic."
Another pro-Brexit leader, former Brexit transition negotiator Lord Frost, admitted in a statement Monday that "since Brexit the processes have got a bit more laborious."
"If we want to control movement into the UK . . . then we must expect the EU to control movement into the EU. We can't have it both ways and we should be honest about that," he said.
This coming November, France will also institute fingerprint and biometric scans for arriving UK nationals, the same protocol it plans to apply to other citizens of third countries. This is expected to add further to processing times for inbound travelers from Britain.
