Methane big part of ‘alarming’ rise in planet-warming gases

By ISABELLA O'MALLEY

April 6, 2023

 A person picks through trash for reusable items as a fire rages at the Bhalswa landfill in New Delhi, April 27, 2022. Rising methane levels in the atmosphere in 2022 again played a big part in an overall increase in the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, according to the the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (AP Photo/Manish Swarup, File)

Methane in the atmosphere had its fourth-highest annual increase in 2022, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported, part of an overall rise in planet-warming greenhouse gases that the agency called “alarming.”

Though carbon dioxide typically gets more attention for its role in climate change, scientists are particularly concerned about methane because it traps much more heat — about 87 times more than carbon dioxide on a 20-year timescale.

Methane, a gas emitted from sources including landfills, oil and natural gas systems and livestock, has increased particularly quickly since 2020. Scientists say it shows no sign of slowing despite urgent calls from scientists and policymakers who say time is running out to meet warming limits in the Paris Agreement and avoid the most destructive impacts of climate change.

“The observations collected by NOAA scientists in 2022 show that greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at an alarming pace and will persist in the atmosphere for thousands of years,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement accompanying the report. “The time is now to address greenhouse gas pollution and to lower human-caused emissions as we continue to build toward a climate-ready nation.”

Methane rose by 14 parts per billion to 1,911.9 ppb in 2022. It rose slightly faster in 2020 (15.20 ppb) and 2021 (17.75 ppb).

Methane gas leaks from wells and natural gas lines and wafts from manure ponds, decomposing landfills, and directly from livestock.

“Ruminant animal herds like goats, sheep, and cows in particular are one of the largest human-driven sources of methane,” said Stephen Porder, a professor of ecology and assistant provost for sustainability at Brown University.

Scientists continue to discover that methane emissions from both the fossil fuels industry and the environment are largely underestimated.

“We are confident that over half of the methane emissions are coming from human activities like oil and gas extraction, agriculture, waste management, and landfills,” said Benjamin Poulter, NASA research scientist.

The exact amounts of methane that have come from human activity versus natural environments over the past few years is not currently known, but scientists say that humans have little control over ecosystems that start emitting more methane due to warming.

“If this rapid rise is wetlands and natural systems responding to climate change, then that’s very frightening because we can’t do much to stop it,” said Drew Shindell, Duke University professor and former climate scientist at NASA. “If methane leaks from the fossil fuels sector, then we can make regulations. But we can’t make regulations on what swamps do.”

Scientists are also investigating how the stubborn three-year La Nina pattern could have influenced methane emissions due to higher levels of rainfall in tropical wetlands.

Shindell said methane emissions caused by humans account for about 26% of the warming caused by human activities.

Porder said transitioning away from fossil fuels and reducing the number of ruminant animals being raised are “sure-fire ways to reduce methane in the atmosphere and limit warming.”

The International Energy Agency estimates that 70% of 2022’s methane emissions could be reduced with existing technology.

The NOAA report also said carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide saw significant growth in 2022.

Carbon dioxide levels rose to to 417.06 ppm in 2022 and is now 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. Nitrous oxide, which NOAA stated is the third-most significant greenhouse gas emitted by humans, rose to 335.7 ppb, largely due to fertilizers and manure from the expanding agriculture sector.

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Study says warming may push more hurricanes toward US coasts

By SETH BORENSTEIN

April 7, 2023

 The bridge leading from Fort Myers to Pine Island, Fla., is seen heavily damaged in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian on Pine Island, Fla., Oct. 1, 2022. Changes in air patterns as the world warms will likely push more and nastier hurricanes up against the United States' east and Gulf coasts, especially in Florida, a new study said.

 (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, File)

Changes in air patterns as the world warms will likely push more and nastier hurricanes up against the United States’ east and Gulf coasts, especially in Florida, a new study said.

While other studies have projected how human-caused climate change will probably alter the frequency, strength and moisture of tropical storms, the study in Friday’s journal Science Advances focuses on the crucial aspect of where hurricanes are going.

It’s all about projected changes in steering currents, said study lead author Karthik Balaguru, a Pacific Northwest National Laboratory climate scientist.

“Along every coast they’re kind of pushing the storms closer to the U.S.,” Balaguru said. The steering currents move from south to north along the Gulf of Mexico; on the East Coast, the normal west-to-east steering is lessened considerably and can be more east-to-west, he said.

Overall, in a worst-case warming scenario, the number of times a storm hits parts of the U.S. coast in general will probably increase by one-third by the end of the century, the study said, based on sophisticated climate and hurricane simulations, including a system researchers developed.

The central and southern Florida Peninsula, which juts out in the Atlantic, is projected to get even more of an increase in hurricanes hitting the coast, the study said.

Climate scientists disagree on how useful it is to focus on the worst-case scenario as the new study does because many calculations show the world has slowed its increase in carbon pollution. Balaguru said because his study looks more at steering changes than strength, the levels of warming aren’t as big a factor.

Kathy Hickey, 70, carefully climbs across a ruined trailer as she picks her way through debris to where she and her husband Bruce had a winter home, a trailer originally purchased by Kathy's mother in 1979, on San Carlos Island in Fort Myers Beach, Fla., Oct. 5, 2022, one week after the passage of Hurricane Ian. 

(AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

The study projects changes in air currents traced to warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, just off the coast of South America. Climate change is warming different parts of the world at different rates, and models show the eastern Pacific area warming more quickly, Balaguru said.

That extra warming sets things in motion through Rossby waves, according to the study — atmospheric waves that move west to east and are connected to changes in temperature or pressure, like the jet stream or polar vortex events.

“I like to explain it to my students like a rock being dropped in a smooth pond,” said University of Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero, who wasn’t part of the study. “The heating is the rock and Rossby waves are the waves radiating away from the heating which disturbs the atmosphere’s balance.”

The wave ripples trigger a counterclockwise circulation in the Gulf of Mexico, which bring winds blowing from east to west in the eastern Atlantic and south to north in the Gulf of Mexico, Corbosiero and Balaguru said.

It also reduces wind shear — which is the difference in speed and direction of winds at high and low altitudes — the study said. Wind shear often decapitates hurricanes and makes it harder for nascent storms to develop.

Less wind shear means stronger storms, Balaguru said.

Overall, the steering current and wind shear changes increase the risk to the United States, Corbosiero said in an email.

Corbosiero and two other outside scientists said the study makes sense, but has limits and is missing some factors.

It doesn’t factor in where storms are born, which is important, and the study assumes a global trend toward more El Nino events, said Jhordanne Jones, an atmospheric scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Purdue University’s Climate Extreme Weather Lab. Most climate simulations project more El Ninos, which is a natural warming of the central Pacific that alters weather worldwide and dampens Atlantic hurricane activity. But recent observations “suggest a more La Nina- like state,” she said.
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California seeks federal help for salmon fishers facing ban

By JULIE WATSON and LISA BAUMANN

April 7, 2023

Bob Maharry sits inside his fishing boat docked at Pier 45 in San Francisco, March 20, 2023. A federal regulatory group has voted to officially close king salmon fishing season along much of the West Coast after near-record low numbers of the fish, also known as Chinook, returned to California's rivers in 2022.

 (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez, File)

SAN DIEGO (AP) — California officials want federal disaster aid for the state’s salmon fishing industry, they said Friday following the closure of recreational and commercial king salmon fishing seasons along much of the West Coast due to near-record low numbers of the iconic fish returning to their spawning grounds.

Dealing a blow to the salmon fishing industry, the Pacific Fishery Management Council unanimously approved the closure Thursday for fall-run chinook fishing from Cape Falcon in northern Oregon to the California-Mexico border. Limited recreational salmon fishing will be allowed off southern Oregon in the fall.

Much of the salmon caught off Oregon originate in California’s Klamath and Sacramento rivers. After hatching in freshwater, they spend an average of three years maturing in the Pacific, where many are snagged by commercial fishermen, before migrating back to their spawning grounds, where conditions are more ideal to give birth. After laying eggs, they die.

“The forecasts for chinook returning to California rivers this year are near record lows,” Council Chair Marc Gorelnik said after the vote in a news release. “The poor conditions in the freshwater environment that contributed to these low forecasted returns are unfortunately not something that the Council can or has authority to control.”

Biologists say the chinook population has declined dramatically after years of drought. Many in the fishing industry say a rollback of federal protections for endangered salmon under the Trump administration allowed more water to be diverted from the Sacramento River Basin to agriculture, causing even more harm.

“The fact is that just too many salmon eggs and juvenile salmon died in the rivers in 2020 as a direct result of politically driven, short-sighted water management policies, under the prior federal administration, to ‘maximize’ irrigation river water deliveries during a major drought,” said Glen Spain, acting executive director of the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Associations. “Unfortunately, this purely politically driven mistake will cost our fishing-dependent coastal communities dearly.”

California fishing industry representatives and elected leaders said federal aid must be released quickly and efforts need to be ramped up to restore salmon habitat in California rivers with better water management, and the removal of dams and other barriers.

“We have to make sure that the policies and practices and the rest are not such that they are defying the evolutionary progress of salmon,” U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi said Friday, speaking in San Francisco in the rain, surrounded by fishers who spoke of their concerns about making ends meet during the closure.

The Democratic congresswoman, whose district includes the San Francisco Bay area, pledged to push for the Biden administration to act quickly on the state’s request to declare the situation a fishery resource disaster, the first step toward a disaster assistance bill that must be approved by Congress.

In a letter to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo seeking the declaration, the California governor’s office stated that the projected loss of the 2023 season is over $45 million — and that does not include the full impact to coastal communities and inland salmon fisheries.

California’s salmon industry is valued at $1.4 billion in economic activity and 23,000 jobs annually in a normal season and contributes about $700 million to the economy and supports more than 10,000 jobs in Oregon, according to the Golden State Salmon Association.

“There’s a lot of fear and panic all up and down the coast with families trying to figure out how they’re going to pay the bills this year,” said John McManus, the group’s senior policy director.

Experts fear native California salmon are in a spiral toward extinction. Already, California’s spring-run chinook are listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, while winter-run chinook are endangered along with the Central California Coast coho salmon, which has been off-limits to California commercial fishers since the 1990s.

Recreational fishing is expected to be allowed in Oregon only for coho salmon during the summer and for chinook after Sept. 1. Salmon season is expected to open as usual north of Cape Falcon, including in the Columbia River and off Washington’s coast.

There’s some hope that the unusually wet winter in California, which has mostly freed the state of drought, will bring relief. An unprecedented series of powerful storms has replenished most of California’s reservoirs, dumping record amounts of rain and snow and busting a severe three-year drought. But too much water running through the rivers could also kill eggs and young hatchlings.

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Baumann reported from Bellingham, Washington.

Ojibwe woman makes history as North Dakota poet laureate

By TRISHA AHMED

April 7, 2023

Denise Lajimodiere speaks at the Minnesota Children's Book Festival in Red Wing, Minn., on Sept. 18, 2021. Lajimodiere became North Dakota's first Native American state poet laureate in the state's history on Wednesday, April 5, 2023. (Chap Achen via AP)

North Dakota lawmakers have appointed an Ojibwe woman as the state’s poet laureate, making her the first Native American to hold this position in the state and increasing attention to her expertise on the troubled history of Native American boarding schools.

Denise Lajimodiere, a citizen of the Turtle Mountain Band in Belcourt, has written several award-winning books of poetry. She’s considered a national expert on the history of Native American boarding schools and wrote an academic book called “Stringing Rosaries” in 2019 on the atrocities experienced by boarding school survivors.

“I’m honored and humbled to represent my tribe. They are and always will be my inspiration,” Lajimodiere said in an interview, following a bipartisan confirmation of her two-year term as poet laureate on Wednesday.

Poet laureates represent the state in inaugural speeches, commencements, poetry readings and educational events, said Kim Konikow, executive director of the North Dakota Council on the Arts.

Lajimodiere, an educator who earned her doctorate degree from the University of North Dakota, said she plans to leverage her role as poet laureate to hold workshops with Native students around the state. She wants to develop a new book that focuses on them.

Lajimodiere’s appointment is impactful and inspirational because “representation counts at all levels,” said Nicole Donaghy, executive director of the advocacy group North Dakota Native Vote and a Hunkpapa Lakota from the Standing Rock Nation.

The more Native Americans can see themselves in positions of honor, the better it is for our communities, Donaghy said.

“I’ve grown up knowing how amazing she is,” said Rep. Jayme Davis, a Democrat of Rolette, who is from the same Turtle Mountain Band as Lajimodiere. “In my mind, there’s nobody more deserving.”

By spotlighting personal accounts of what boarding school survivors experienced, Lajimodiere’s book “Stringing Rosaries” sparked discussions on how to address injustices Native people have experienced, Davis said.

From the 18th century and continuing as late as the 1960s, networks of boarding schools institutionalized the legal kidnapping, abuse, and forced cultural assimilation of Indigenous children in North America. Much of Lajimodiere’s work grapples with trauma as it was felt by Native people in the region.

“Sap seeps down a fir tree’s trunk like bitter tears.... I brace against the tree and weep for the children, for the parents left behind, for my father who lived, for those who didn’t,” Lajimodiere wrote in a poem based on interviews with boarding school victims, published in her 2016 book “Bitter Tears.”

Davis, the legislator, said Lajimodiere’s writing informs ongoing work to grapple with the past like returning ancestral remains — including boarding school victims — and protecting tribal cultures going forward by codifying the federal Indian Child Welfare Act into state law.

The law, enacted in 1978, gives tribes power in foster care and adoption proceedings involving Native children. North Dakota and several other states have considered codifying it this year, as the U.S. Supreme Court considers a challenge to the federal law.

The U.S. Department of the Interior released a report last year that identified more than 400 Native American boarding schools that sought to assimilate Native children into white society. The federal study found that more than 500 students died at the boarding schools, but officials expect that figure to grow exponentially as research continues.

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Trisha Ahmed is a corps member for the Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues. Follow Trisha Ahmed on Twitter: @TrishaAhmed15.

Report: Florida officials cut key data from vaccine study

 Dr. Joseph Ladapo speaks with reporters after the Florida Senate confirmed his appointment as the state's surgeon general on Feb. 23, 2022, in Tallahassee, Fla. An analysis that was the basis of a highly criticized recommendation from Florida’s surgeon general cautioning young men against getting the COVID-19 vaccine omitted information that showed catching the virus could increase the risk of a cardiac-related death much more than getting the shot. That's according to drafts of the analysis obtained by the Tampa Bay Times. (AP Photo/Brendan Farrington, File)

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — An analysis that was the basis of a highly criticized recommendation from Florida’s surgeon general cautioning young men against getting the COVID-19 vaccine omitted information that showed catching the virus could increase the risk of a cardiac-related death much more than getting the mRNA shot, according to drafts of the analysis obtained by the Tampa Bay Times.

The nonbinding recommendation made by Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo last fall ran counter to the advice provided by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Ladapo, a Harvard-trained medical doctor who was appointed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2021 to head the Florida Department of Health, has drawn intense scrutiny over his shared resistance with the Republican governor to COVID-19 mandates for vaccines and masks and other health policies endorsed by the federal government.

The early drafts of the analysis obtained by the Times through a records request showed that catching COVID-19 could increase the chances of a cardiac-related death much more than getting the vaccine, but that information was missing from the final version put out by the Florida Department of Health last October.

Ladapo said that the risk of men ages 18 to 39 having cardiac complications outweighed the benefits of getting the mRNA vaccine.

Matt Hitchings, an infectious disease epidemiologist and professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, told the Times that it seems that sections of the analysis were omitted because they did not fit the narrative the surgeon general wanted to push.

“This is a grave violation of research integrity,” Hitchings said. “(The vaccine) has done a lot to advance the health of people of Florida and he’s encouraging people to mistrust it.”

In a statement on Twitter posted Saturday in response to the Times’ story, Ladapo said, “It’s not only unfortunate that COVID has corrupted scientists’ ability to think clearly about epidemiology but also sad that people rush to defend a vaccine that has shown increased cardiovascular risk in multiple studies.”

Last year, Ladapo released guidance recommending against vaccinations for healthy children, contradicting federal public health leaders whose advice says all kids should get the shots. In response, the American Academy of Pediatrics and its Florida chapter issued written statements reiterating support for vaccinating eligible children age 5 and older against COVID-19.

DeSantis, who is contemplating a run for the GOP presidential nomination, also has requested that a grand jury be convened to investigate any wrongdoing with respect to the COVID-19 vaccines. DeSantis’ request argues that pharmaceutical companies had a financial interest in creating a climate in which people believed that getting a coronavirus vaccine would ensure they couldn’t spread the virus to others.

The Florida Supreme Court agreed to the request last December.

Cambodia to deport 19 Japanese cybercrime scam suspects

April 7, 2023

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia (AP) — Nineteen Japanese men detained in Cambodia in January on suspicion of taking part in organized phone and online scams will be deported to their homeland, a Cambodian immigration police officer said Friday.

Arrangements for their return are being made by the Japanese Embassy in Cambodia, but so far no date has been set, Immigration Police spokesperson Gen. Keo Vanthan told The Associated Press.

Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported Friday that Tokyo police have obtained arrest warrants for the 19 Japanese on suspicion of running phone scams from Cambodia targeting people in Japan.

NHK said Cambodian authorities who searched the men’s hotel rooms “discovered a list of Japanese citizens believed to be targets in a fraud scheme.”

The 19 were taken into custody in the southern city of Sihanoukville on Jan. 24 and sent to the capital, Phnom Penh, where they were held after investigation by the interior ministry.

Keo Vanthan declined to provide further details about the detained Japanese or their alleged offenses.

However, police in Sihanoukville, which in the past few years has become notorious for crimes such as online and phone scams, said in January that they opened the case after being informed on a crime-fighting hotline that about 20 Japanese men were being held there and extorted for money.

They found a group of 19 Japanese men staying in a hotel in Sihanoukville, but the men denied to police that they were being held against their will or extorted. They said they were visiting Cambodia legally and had been seeking work but were not involved in any crimes or wrongdoing.

Sihanoukville police, however, sent them to Phnom Penh for further investigation.

Cybercrime scams became a major issue in Cambodia last year, with numerous accounts of people from various Asian countries and further afield being lured into taking jobs in Cambodia. However, they found themselves trapped in virtual slavery and often forced to participate in scams targeting people over the internet.

The scam networks, which often have links to transnational organized crime, are set up in countries with weak law enforcement and attract educated young workers with promises of high earnings. The workers are then subject to isolation and the threat of violence unless they succeed in cheating victims reached by phone into transferring payments into overseas bank accounts.

Such activities appear to have declined recently in Sihanoukville but persist in other places, including in Myanmar near the border with Thailand. In many cases, these operations are controlled by Chinese organized crime groups.

Moving towards 3 degrees of warming – the phasing out of coal is too slow

Peer-Reviewed Publication

CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

 

IMAGE: ALEH CHERP, PROFESSOR AT THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR INDUSTRIAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, LUND UNIVERSITY. view more 

CREDIT: CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY.

The use of coal power is not decreasing fast enough. The Paris Agreement’s target of a maximum of 2 degrees of warming appear to be missed, and the world is moving towards a temperature increase of 2.5–3 degrees. At the same time it is feasible to avoid higher warming. This is shown by researchers from Chalmers University of Technology and Lund University, Sweden, in a new study.

“More and more countries are promising that they will phase out coal from their energy systems, which is positive. But unfortunately, their commitments are not strong enough. If we are to have a realistic chance of meeting the 2-degree target, the phasing out of coal needs to happen faster”, says Aleh Cherp, professor at the International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics at Lund University.

China and India need to begin phasing out their coal use 

Phasing out coal is necessary to keep the world’s temperature increase below 2 degrees, compared to pre-industrial levels. In a study by the research programme Mistra Electrification, a group of researchers have analysed 72 countries’ pledged commitments to phase out their coal use by 2022–2050.

In the best-case scenario, the researchers show that it is possible that the temperature increase will stay at 2 degrees. But that assumes, among other things, that both China and India begin phasing out their coal use within five years. Furthermore, their phase-out needs to be as rapid as it has been in the UK, which is the fastest that ever happened in a large country, and faster than Germany has promised. This may create inequities which will need to be addressed by international policies.

Global warming of up to 3 degrees is likely

The research group has also developed scenarios that they consider to be the most realistic. These scenarios indicate that Earth is moving towards a global warming of 2.5–3 degrees.

“The countries’ commitments are not sufficient, not even among the most ambitious countries. In addition, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may prevent some countries from phasing out coal as they promised”, says Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor at the Division of Physical Resource Theory at Chalmers University of Technology.

The study shows that the 72 countries’ commitments to phase out coal power are similar to each other and in line with historical data for how quickly coal power was phased out in the past.

More about the study

Read the full article in Environmental Research Letters: Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns. The authors of the article are: Aleh Cherp, Lund University and Jessica Jewell, Vadim Vinichenko, Marta Vetier and Lola Nacke, Chalmers University of Technology. 

Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor at the Division of Physical Resource theory, Chalmers University of Technology.

For further information, please contact:
Aleh Cherp, Professor at the International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics, Lund University, aleh.cherp@iiiee.lu.se +46 46 222 02 53

Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor at the Division of Physical Resource theory, Chalmers University of Technology, jewell@chalmers.se +46 31 772 61 06

About Mistra Electrification

The Mistra Electrification research program aims to accelerate the transition to a sustainable and efficient energy system. The program will produce knowledge, with a focus on electrification and sector coupling, to enable a fair transition. The main financier is the research foundation Mistra. The program is hosted by the research company Energiforsk, which leads the program together with Chalmers University of Technology. Read more at www.mistraelectrification.com

Captions

Aleh Cherp, Professor at the International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics, Lund University. Photo: Central European University.

Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor at the Division of Physical Resource theory, Chalmers University of Technology. Photo: Chalmers.

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JOURNAL

Environmental Research Letters

DOI

10.1088/1748-9326/acadf6 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Phasing out coal for 2 °C target requires worldwide replication of most ambitious national plans despite security and fairness concerns

Limiting warming to 2°C may avoid 80% of heat-related deaths in Middle East and North Africa

Peer-Reviewed Publication

LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE & TROPICAL MEDICINE

Over 80% of predicted heat-related deaths in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) by the end of the century could be prevented if global warming is limited to 2°C, according to a modelling study published in The Lancet Planetary Health.

Under high-emissions scenarios, approximately 123 people per 100,000 in MENA are predicted to die annually from heat-related causes by the end of the century — approximately 60-fold greater than current figures and much higher than predictions under similar scenarios worldwide.

However, if global warming is instead limited to 2°C, over 80% of these deaths could be avoided, highlighting the urgent need for better adaption policies and a switch to renewable technologies.

The findings come as the world prepares for COP28 in Dubai in November.

MENA is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions of the world, with maximum temperatures predicted to rise to almost 50°C by the end of the century, potentially making some areas unliveable. 

However, despite this vulnerability, the impact of heat stress in this region, which is worsening due to climate change, remains underexplored.

In the current study, an international team of researchers, including from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), modelled current (2001 to 2020) and future (2021 to 2100) trends in heat-related mortality in 19 countries in the MENA region. In their analyses, the team considered variations in the levels of potential greenhouse gas emissions over time and different socioeconomic scenarios.

Under high emissions scenarios (defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5), most of the MENA region will experience substantial levels of warming by the 2060s.

Indeed, under SSP5-8.5, annual heat-related deaths will rise from approximately two per 100,000 currently to 123 per 100,000 by the period between 2081 and 2100. Although current heat-related deaths in MENA are relatively low compared to other regions (two per 100,000 compared to 17 per 100,000 in Western Europe or 10 per 100,000 in Australasia, for example), this rise is expected to be much higher than other regions of the world under similar climate change scenarios. The UK, for example, is expected to see a rise from current figures of three per 100,000 to nine per 100,000 by the 2080s.

Iran is expected to have the highest annual death rate in MENA under SSP5-8.5 (423 per 100,000), with other countries such as Palestine, Iraq and Israel also predicted to have high rates (186, 169 and 163 per 100,000, respectively). Smaller Gulf states, such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, will see the greatest relative increases in heat-related deaths.

However, for the MENA region as a whole, if global warming can be limited to 2°C as defined by SSP1-2.6, the team estimate that over 80% of the total 123 annual predicted heat-related deaths per 100,000 people could be avoided.

With COP28 on the horizon, the authors conclude that there is an even greater urgency for stronger mitigation and adaptation policies to be agreed upon, both at the conference and beyond, if MENA is to avoid the worst possible impacts of future warming.  

Reliance on traditional heat-adaption solutions such as air-conditioning will not be enough, they warn. Air-conditioning, for example, is used to a relatively high extent in countries where rates of heat-related mortality are higher than the regional average, such as in Israel and Cyprus. 

As population growth in MENA will be a substantial driver of predicted heat-related deaths, demographic policies and healthy ageing will also be vital if MENA is to successfully adapt to a changing climate.

Shakoor Hajat, lead author and Professor of Global Environmental Health at LSHTM, said: “Global warming will need to be limited to 2°C to avoid the catastrophic health impacts estimated in our study. Even with stronger action, countries in the region need to develop ways other than air-conditioning to protect their citizens from the dangers of extreme heat.

“Strengthening health systems and better coordination between MENA countries will be key in tackling the health impacts of climate change in the region. With COP28 coming up, discussions are needed to consider how countries in the region can better work together to improve resilience in the face of climate change.”

 

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JOURNAL

The Lancet Planetary Health

ARTICLE TITLE

Current and future trends in heat-related mortality in the MENA region: a health impact assessment with bias-adjusted statistically downscaled CMIP6 (SSP-based) data and Bayesian inference

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

3-Apr-2023

Antibiotic consumption and resistance ‘two-way street’ between animals and humans

Peer-Reviewed Publication

LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE & TROPICAL MEDICINE

Scientists have demonstrated for the first time that, globally, the association between antibiotic consumption and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) between human and animals goes both ways.

The findings, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, reveal that using antibiotics in animals is associated with AMR in humans and using antibiotics in humans is associated with AMR in animals.

The study highlights the urgent need for an integrated, cross-domain strategy to tackle the spread of AMR, focusing on social development, poverty reduction and enforcing tighter rules on the use of antibiotics.

Kasim Allel, lead author and Associate Research Fellow in Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) said: “AMR is a ‘wicked problem’ as conflicting priorities exist amongst an intricate web of stakeholders.

“A robust, cross-disciplinary and-species approach for AMR surveillance and control, which is not limited to a human-centred perspective, should be embraced among decision-makers and local governments for better planetary health.”

AMR is a major threat to global health, with resistant bacteria responsible for 1.27 million deaths in 2019.

Incorrect use of antibiotics (which include antibiotics, antivirals and antifungals) is a key driver of the spread of AMR. Rising demands for animal-based food and products, as well as intricate and interlinked socioeconomic and environmental factors, are also highly influential.

In this study, an international team of researchers, including from LSHTM, investigated links between the global consumption of antibiotics and rates of AMR in humans and food-producing animals around 2018. The authors also considered the influence of socioeconomic, health and environmental risk factors. 

As predicted, overall, greater consumption of antibiotics in animals is associated with an increased rate of AMR in food-producing animals, with higher rates of human consumption of antibiotics increasing the risk of AMR in humans.

However, the paper also uniquely revealed a global bi-directional relationship between humans and animals. Namely, greater consumption of antibiotics by animals is associated with an increased risk of AMR in human pathogens (defined as critical priority by the World Health Organization), while greater human consumption of antibiotics increases the risk of AMR in animals.

Despite recording low levels of antibiotic consumption, low- and middle-income countries, notably in Asia (such as Bangladesh, China and India), had the highest rates of AMR in food-producing animals, suggesting that antibiotic consumption may be a secondary risk factor to the spread of AMR in certain areas of the world.

Socioeconomic factors, such as income inequality or death rates due to unsafe hygiene practices or heart problems, also increased rates of AMR in humans.

Consistent with previous research, these findings highlight that factors that typically reflect lower socioeconomic status are associated with an increased likelihood of AMR in humans. The authors argue that this further emphasises the importance of strong governance and anti-corruption within a ‘One-Health’ context, which emphasises the interdependency between animals, humans and the environment.  

The team conclude that reducing antibiotic consumption alone will not be enough to fight the global spread of AMR. Instead, they state that integrated control methods focused on reducing poverty and supporting social development will be needed to prevent the transmission of resistance between humans and animals.

They also emphasise the importance of strengthening surveillance efforts, especially in low-and middle-income countries, and ensuring that livestock surveillance for AMR in particular, mirrors surveillance in humans.

Laith Yakob, senior author and Taught Programme co-Director of the Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases at LSHTM said: “This bidirectionality in antibiotic consumption and resistance among humans and livestock uncovered by our analysis offers novel opportunities for mitigating resistance. For example, it highlights the potential for targeting single One-Health components with interventions but having system-wide impacts.

“Designing interventions around this holistic picture of resistance will be essential in tackling what has rapidly become one of the biggest threats to global health.

“Going forward, we recommend tighter country policies and regulations on antibiotic use and prescription among animals and humans, as well as improved governance, transparency and accountability, particularly among countries with the highest disease burdens.”

 

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JOURNAL

The Lancet Planetary Health

ARTICLE TITLE

Global antimicrobial-resistance drivers: an ecological country-level study at the human–animal interface

When SEC is challenged, CEOs notice

MU research shows that success of regulatory enforcement impacts corporate managers’ communication during private meetings.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI-COLUMBIA

 

IMAGE: HOYOUN KYUNG view more 

CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI

COLUMBIA, Mo. — ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­In 2005, Siebel Systems, Inc., a California software company, challenged an enforcement action taken by the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) that found the business had violated the Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) — a regulation implemented to prevent businesses from giving key analysts and investors insider information. The Siebel case went to the federal court marking the only court case under Reg FD, and it was eventually dismissed by the judge.

Now, new research at the University of Missouri shows the impact of that landmark decision and how future decisions involving the SEC could have a profound impact on the way chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial officers (CFOs) communicate with investors and analysts, including the amount of information they share in a private setting. Ultimately, Hoyoun Kyung, an assistant professor in the Trulaske College of Business, and his team of coauthors found the court’s ruling sent the message to CEOs and CFOs that they could be more relaxed in their private interactions with analysts and investors and potentially share more information than they shared with the public.

That attitude prevailed among CEOs and CFOs until 2009 when the SEC filed another Reg FD violation, this time against American Commercial Lines. Eventually, the SEC settled out of court with the company, but the case was enough to reestablish the Reg FD as a law that businesses need to respect.

In his study, Kyung found that the effectiveness of the Reg FD depends on the perception of the SEC’s ability to enforce the regulation.

“It doesn’t matter that the regulation is there, if you can’t enforce it, the market is going to take advantage,” Kyung said. “In 2009, after businesses saw the SEC’s resumption of Reg FD enforcement, they started behaving more cautiously in their private meetings.”

Every quarter, publicly traded businesses must report their gains and losses to the public. However, the reporting process doesn’t necessarily end there. Businesses also can meet privately with potential investors and analysts with the legal stipulation that they only share the same information they do with the public. The issue is CEOs and CFOs are sometimes tempted to build stronger relationships with these potential investors and analysts because they often have more resources than members of the general public to influence the success of the business. At times, that motivating factor can lead to businesses feeling the need to share exclusive insider information with the private investors and analysts.

In 2005, the SEC accused Siebel Systems of using body language to tip off private investors to an upswing in business after reporting losses and a negative outlook to the public. But after Siebel Systems challenged the punishment, the judicial system disagreed with the SEC’s determination. The court then ruled that the SEC was being too aggressive for punishing the software company over body language.

Kyung, who is also an accountancy alumni faculty scholar, analyzed changes in stock market responses to analyst earnings forecasts and stock recommendations before and after the Siebel court case, comparing the information to content of analyst reports. He noticed a significant increase in the analyst output informativeness indicating increased information sharing by managers to analysts in private meetings. He then surveyed securities lawyers who were working with businesses around the time of the 2005 court case and asked them what was happening to create this change. He discovered that after the court case, CEOs and CFOs were often acting more relaxed in their body language when talking to the analysts. This sent the message that when a CFO or CEO acts either excited or deflated about the outlook of the business, they were more likely to tip off the analyst or private investor through their demeaner.

That began to change in 2009 after the SEC filed a Reg FD action against American Commercial Lines. In that case, a CFO for the company sent an email to analysts stating the company’s earnings would likely be less than what was publicly forecasted a few days earlier. Ultimately, the SEC decided the company cooperated enough with its investigation to not impose a punishment.

Kyung said his research can be used to help people anticipate business and market reactions after landmark regulatory rulings.

In 2021, the SEC accused AT&T of leaking details about its smartphones to investor relations executives. AT&T challenged the decision in circuit court. The judge rejected AT&T’s plea for dismissal but didn’t rule in favor of the SEC either due to lack of proven intent. Ultimately, AT&T agreed to pay more than $6 million in a settlement, the biggest payout for this type of regulatory punishment ever.

“We don’t know what the outcome of the AT&T v. SEC trial would’ve been, but it’s possible that if this judge were to side with AT&T, we might see a similar impact to the 2005 decision,” Kyung said. “It’s likely that at some point, someone can challenge the SEC again, and this research can help people understand how businesses will respond.”  

“Managers’ private communications with analysts: The effect of SEC v. Siebel Systems Inc.” was published in Contemporary Accounting Research.

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JOURNAL

Contemporary Accounting Research

DOI

10.1111/1911-3846.12858 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Managers’ Private Communications with Analysts: The Effect of SEC v. Siebel Systems Inc.