The magnitude of the 2023 Turkish earthquake matches the largest in its history, a new study determined

Peer-Reviewed Publication

KEAI COMMUNICATIONS CO., LTD.

 

IMAGE: ILLUSTRATION OF THE SEISMIC EVENT, STATION DISTRIBUTION, AND CODA WAVE ENERGY view more 

CREDIT: THE AUTHORS

On February 6, 2023, two powerful earthquakes successively occurred in Turkey, resulting in significant damage and loss of life across southeast Turkey and northwest Syria. As a fundamental parameter, their magnitudes are of great interest to the scientific community and the general public at large.

Currently, reported magnitude results for the two events have significant discrepancies, and the difference in magnitude between them is highly uncertain (between 0.1 and 0.4), which requires further revisions.

Aiming to address that gap, a team of researchers led by Professor Xiaodong Song of Peking University used a novel and reliable long-period coda moment magnitude method to measure the magnitudes and relative sizes of the two events.

“The moment magnitudes obtained were 7.95 and 7.86, higher than the other published results," shared Prof Song, who is the corresponding of the paper. "The first mainshock was slightly stronger than the second with an estimated difference of 0.11. This corresponds to one of the largest tremors in over 2,000 years of Turkish history."

Furthermore, the researchers found that the two large earthquakes were rare large continental earthquake doublets—two or more large earthquakes occurring in close proximity and at short time intervals—as such events occasionally occur in subduction zones and rarely on the continent. The pair of earthquakes also appear to be the most powerful doublet ever to occur on land.

The team published their findings in the KeAi journal Earthquake Science.

"Our method specializes in measuring large earthquakes through their long-period energy tens of thousands of seconds post-quake," explained, Xinyu Jiang, lead author of the study and a doctoral student with the study team. "Its advantage lies in relative insensitivity of the coda wave to factors such as source location and Earth heterogeneities, allowing for more accurate and reliable assessments of moment magnitude."

The researchers fitted an effective energy decay model to estimate initial coda energy. The energy was calibrated with fast numerical simulation to extract earthquake size data by eliminating the influence of seismic source and wave propagation complexities.

"Our novel approach has the potential to advance both quake research and disaster response," concluded Prof Song.

###

Contact the corresponding author: Xiaodong Song, xiao.d.song@gmail.com

The publisher KeAi was established by Elsevier and China Science Publishing & Media Ltd to unfold quality research globally. In 2013, our focus shifted to open access publishing. We now proudly publish more than 100 world-class, open access, English language journals, spanning all scientific disciplines. Many of these are titles we publish in partnership with prestigious societies and academic institutions, such as the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC).

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DOI

10.1016/j.eqs.2023.02.008 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Special focus/Rapid Communication Moment magnitudes of two large Turkish earthquakes on February 6, 2023 from long-period coda

COI STATEMENT

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

The 2022 Durban floods were the most catastrophic yet recorded in KwaZulu-Natal

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND

 

IMAGE: THE FLOODS THAT IMPACTED DURBAN IN APRIL 2022 WERE THE MOST CATASTROPHIC YET, RECORDED IN KWAZULU-NATAL. view more 

CREDIT: CHANTE SHATZ.

The disastrous flood that hit Durban in April 2022 was the most catastrophic natural disaster yet recorded in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) in collective terms of lives lost, homes and infrastructure damaged or destroyed and economic impact.

This is according to a new study by researchers from the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa, and the University of Brighton, UK, published in the South African Geographical Journal.

Professor Stefan Grab from Wits University and his colleague, Professor David Nash constructed a geographical history of flooding disasters in KZN by sifting through thousands of archived articles held in old newspapers, colonial and government records, early missionary records, and meteorological records which became available from the 1850s onwards. They define extreme flooding events, where major rivers were overflowing their banks, together with one or more significant consequences, such as the loss of human life, livestock, agricultural fields and crops, and infrastructure such as buildings, roads and bridges.

The study, which reconstructed the history of floods in KZN since the 1840s, confirmed a widely-held – yet anecdotal view – that the April 2022 floods were likely the most catastrophic natural disaster yet recorded in KZN and that flooding events have doubled over the last century or more.

“Right after the floods, many commentators like the media, some scientists and others were quick to report that the floods were the most severe ever recorded. Our aim was to place the floods into perspective and see if this and other statements related to the disaster were factually correct by building a historic geographic account of past floods and associated extreme rainfall events for the province of KZN and particularly the greater Durban region,” says Grab, lead author of the study.

 

The scientists found that while the floods were indeed the most catastrophic in terms of lives lost, infrastructure damaged, and economical loss, the flood was not actually the biggest in terms of the area affected, homes destroyed, or the amount of rainfall that fell collectively over a few days.

“When you look at a natural disaster you need to look at it in context. Whether the April 2022 floods were the ‘worst in living memory’ is debatable, as a flooding event in September 1987 affected a larger geographic area of KZN and destroyed more homes than the 2022 event,” says Grab. Similarly, a catastrophic flooding event in Durban, 1856 – also in April – produced a greater quantity of rainfall over a three-day period than last year’s floods.

In April 2022, the KZN coastal zone, including the greater Durban area and South Coast, received more than 300mm of rain in 24 hours. This led to calamitous flooding, with 459 people losing their lives and 88 people still missing by the end of May 2022. Over 4000 homes were destroyed, 40 000 people left homeless, and 45 000 people were temporarily left unemployed. The cost of infrastructure and business losses amounted to an estimated US$2 billion.

In April 1856, 303mm of rain fell in Durban over 24 hours, and a record of 691mm over a three-day period from April 14 to 16. During these historic floods, an unknown number of people drowned, the entire central area of Durban was flooded, bridges were destroyed and roads were closed for several days, cutting off all communication with other parts of the country. The floods extended inland to Howick and the Umgeni bridge was swept away. Over a 16km stretch of beach between the mouths of the Umgeni and Umhlanga rivers, 200 drowned oxen were deposited.

“It is difficult to compare the two floods in terms of which was the most severe. We must recognize that back in 1856 Durban was only a town with a much smaller population and economic infrastructure to that of today, and thus the percentage of individuals impacted or percentage economic loss may well have been greater back in 1856. In addition, coping mechanisms and ‘outside’ support would have been far more restricted during the 19th century,” says Grab.

It is highly likely that recent anthropogenically-induced global climate warming has contributed to trends of increased flooding as we have demonstrated here, and this trend is likely to continue so in the foreseeable future. However, it is also important to recognize that catastrophic climate events such as severe floods are not temporally restricted to a ‘warmer world’ as the 1856 floods happened during a much colder climatic period.

“With regards flood disasters – history is repeating itself. We need to prepare for bigger rainfall events in our cities, and that doesn’t just apply to Durban, it applies to all South African cities and towns. We must get our infrastructure, especially drainage systems, in order. It is urgent that we better prepare ourselves for the heavy rainfall and flood events that are guaranteed to come in times ahead,” says Grab.

The research was funded by The Leverhulme Trust with further support from the University of the Witwatersrand.

 

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JOURNAL

South African Geographical Journal

DOI

10.1080/03736245.2023.2193758 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Literature review

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

A new flood chronology for KwaZulu-Natal (1836–2022): the April 2022 Durban floods in historical context

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

11-Apr-2023

COI STATEMENT

N/A

A World Heritage Site in danger: more than half of lagoons in Doñana have disappeared

The Doñana Participation Council meets to analyse the proposed law that aims to extend legal irrigation in the Doñana region. Spain is sentenced by the Court of Justice of the European Union for failing to fulfil its legal obligations towards the World

Business Announcement

SPANISH NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL (CSIC)

Eloy Revilla, director de la Estación Biológica de Doñana – CSIC, has participated at the extraordinary plenary session of the Doñana Participation Council to analyse the proposed law presented in the Andalusian Parliament, that aims to regulate irrigation areas in Doñana, and its repercussions on the conservation status of the Doñana aquifer on which numerous species and habitats listed as priorities by Andalusian, Spanish and EU legislation depend.

In his intervention, Eloy Revilla has begun by recalling that “Spain is sentenced by the Court of Justice of the European Union for failing to fulfil its legal obligations under the Water Framework Directive and the Habitats Directive, by not taking into account the illegal water abstractions for cultivation nor the water abstraction for urban supply in the estimation of total groundwater abstractions in the Doñana region, as well as by failing to provide any measure to prevent the alteration caused by groundwater abstractions to the habitat types listed as priority habitats.

Effects of the loss of habitats classified as temporary lagoons on biodiversity

During his speech, the director has presented some of the data generated by the scientific work of the Doñana Biological Station, which are yielding devasting results in relation to the state of the lagoons and other habitats and also to the biodiversity that depends on them.

In the last study published in the journal Science of The Total Environment, data shows that the deterioration of the Doñana lagoon system is widespread. Fifty-nine percent of the surveyed lagoons have not been flooded since at least 2013. The observed changes are significantly related to temperature and precipitation each year, as well as to the extent of cultivated areas, the urbanized surface of Matalascañas, the distance to the urbanisation pumping stations and the operability of the golf course. With these analyses, we can see the effect of human variables related to water consumption once the effect of climatic variables has been controlled for: 80% of the lagoons had a negative anomaly on the date of drying up, and 84% in the surface flooded, i.e. lagoons have worsened more than expected due to rainfall and temperature alone.

 “In Mediterranean systems, droughts are recurrent, but when the succession of years withouth flooding episodes exceeds the average recurrence time, the vegetation of the lagoons disappears and thus the habitats listed in the Habitat Directive are lost”, has explained. This is what happened with the nineteen percent of the 267 lagoons sampled have been completely lost as they are now totally invaded by terrestrial vegetation. In addition, another 19% of the lagoons have more than 50% of their basin invaded by scrubland and pine trees. Only 10% are in good condition, mainly located in La Vera area.

The three lagoons that functioned as permanent ones have lost its permanency. The lagoons “Sopetón” and “La Dulce”, which only dried up occasionally, now dry out frequently. The situation in Santa Olalla lagoon was extreme in the summer of 2022, when it dried up completely. “This lagoon also dried up partially in 1983 and 1995, on both occasions after four successive years of drought. We are currently also in a dry period, but Santa Olalla is showing minimum values of its flooded surface area since 2012, despite the fact that both 2010 and 2011 were rainy years”, says Revilla.

This situaton is affecting the unique fauna and vegetation of Doñana. For example, as the flooding period for all amphibians has shortened, Amphibians have lost a large number of their breeding sites. According to data, amphibian species richness has been reduced from an average of 4.3 species/km2 in 2003 to 2.5 species/km2 in 2021. The decline of the two freshwater turtles species, native to the Iberian Peninsula and included in European red lists is also worrying, as well as the situation of dragonflies and damselflies. For instance, in 1959, 43 species have been described, but only 26 species have been detected in the last decade, with solely 12 species observed in 2022. Doñana conserves endangered fish species, such as the tusk, the salinette, or the European eel. However, for example, the total drying up of Santa Olalla in 2022 has meant the death of the eels remaining in this last permanent lagoon. And this critical situation is not only affecting animal groups. It is also having negative effects for the conservation of aquatic plants, mainly associated with long hydroperiod lagoons and some of which with restricted distributions and threatened.

In addition to the temporary lagoons, there are other priority habitat types whose conservation depends directly on an aquifer in good condition, such as heathlands. Associated with the decline and loss of the black forest within the Natural Area, numerous trees are being defoliated and dying, including multi-centenary cork oaks, which is a good indicator of the exceptional nature of the current situation. Since their last survey in 2009/2010, 8.3% have died, while a further 10.7% are in very poor condition, with a generalised tendency towards defoliation.

The Proposed Law

Climate change is changing rainfall patterns, changes that will intensify in the future and indicate a clear decrease in water availability. On the other hand, the demand for water in the Doñana region has continued to increase. For example, irrigation in the crown of the forest increased from 2162 ha in 2004 to 3543 ha in 2014 (an increase of more than 30%), and the area occupied today is even greater.

In relation to the proposed law presented in the Andalusian Parliament, Eloy Revilla wanted to give a clear position: “The current exploitation of the aquifer is not sustainable. This means that more water resource is being used than is being regenerated annually through recharge by precipitation, which is variable and decreasing, depleting this natural resource”.

In addition, he affirmed that the uncontrolled proliferation of irrigated crops without the corresponding authorisations shows the unsustainability caused by a “clear failure in governance” by appropriate administrations. According to him, it shows a clear lack of political willpower to solve the problem. “This executive inaction is what has led us to the unsustainable critical point reached in Doñana's conservation status.”

According to the director of the Doñana Biological Station, the additional need to provide water to farms without concessions, as proposed in the new law, makes it even more difficult to find an urgent solution to the problem. “The current situation in Doñana is critical and does not allow to wait another decade for decisions to be taken to adjust water demand to availability”, he said. “If this was done, we would be imposing, against current legislation, the complete loss of the temporary lagoon systems and other habitats dependent on the aquifer. In addition, if we do not act urgently, the depletion of the resource will mean that legal farms will have irrigation problems, as is already happening in this 2022-2023 campaign, putting at risk the economic activity that depends on the aquifer as a whole.

The problem we face is very complex, as will be its solution. “The creation of false expectations, which we know beforehand cannot be met, only adds complexity to the problem. A childish dialectic of good guys and bad guys is used, which only seeks confronting different parts of society against each other”, he criticized.  “It is important to remember that, to be economically, socially and environmentally sustainable, human activities, including economic activities, need a predictable and well-preserved environment.

Proposals to stop the deterioration of Doñana

To conclude his speech, the director of the Doñana Biological Station offered some guidelines to prevent further degradation of the World Heritage Site.

He proposes to urgently reduce the total amount of water abstracted from the aquifer to levels that will allow starting recovery. Only then, its exploitation can be sustainable in the short, medium and long term. He also proposes to update the system for assessing the state of the Doñana aquifer and to carry out annual assessments of the availability of water in the aquifer to define the maximum quantities that can be extracted from it. 

Eloy Revilla also believes it is necessary to urgently re-establish governance in the exploitation and management of water and land in Doñana and its region so that they are within the current legality and to address the vulnerability of legal farmers in the face of the uncertainty created by the proposed law, the loss of brand value of their products and the unfair competition from illegal producers and the uncertainty for the future.

Moreover, he calls on a multilateral working commission titled “Doñana 2030” to be started up urgently, as was approved by the former Participation Council, to make rapid and coordinated progress in improving the governance and conservation of Doñana and its region, allowing the critical situation of the aquifer to be addressed, as well as other important problems of Doñana such as water pollution or the intense overgrazing.

He also proposes to intensify the monitoring of natural systems and species affected by the profound changes that are occurring due to overexploitation of resources and climate change, as well as to carry out a socio-economic analysis in order to design the appropriate policies to develop sustainable agriculture in the region and give incentives for diversification of economic activity.

 “The future of Doñana and its region depends on our decisions, which, I have to remind you, is not only a local or regional value, but a universal heritage site of all humanity. You have to choose how you want to go down in history,” he concluded.

CSIC Andalucía Comunicación/CSIC Comunicación

comunicacion@csic.es

Protecting the cultural heritage of ancient bone artifacts is now possible. Near-infrared hyperspectral imaging and radiocarbon dating together to make the invisible visible

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITÀ DI BOLOGNA

 

IMAGE: CRISTINA MALEGORI AND SAHRA TALAMO AT THE RADIOCARBON DATING LAB BRAVHO AT THE UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA view more 

CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA

An innovative method developed by an Italian team is emerging that will revolutionize the field of archaeology and radiocarbon dating and protect our cultural heritage. The researchers have used it with surprising results on archaeological bones, making the ‘invisible’ visible.

This important achievement-published in the journal Communications Chemistry of the Nature group-is the result of extensive research work coordinated by Professor Sahra Talamo, in which experts in the field of analytical chemistry from the University of Bologna and the University of Genoa collaborated.

The group has developed a new technique for analyzing archaeological bones that, for the first time, makes it possible to quantify and map at high resolution the presence of collagen, the invisible protein that is essential for making radiocarbon dates and thus obtaining new information on human evolution.

“Our results will offer significant advances for the study of human evolution,” says Talamo coauthor of the study and director of the Radiocarbon dating lab BRAVHO at the University of Bologna. “as we will be able to minimise the destruction of valuable bone material, which is under the protection and enhancement of European cultural heritage and thus allow us to contextualise the valuable object by providing an accurate calendar age.”

Many of the rarest prehistoric bones found by archaeologists are enormously precious and are considered to be part of our cultural and historical patrimony. Bones can provide a great deal of information about ancient populations’ lives: what they ate, their reproductive habits, their diseases and the migrations they undertook. However, bones cannot give us all the information we so covet. Their potential to convey information is limited by how much collagen is preserved in them.

In order to combine the need to preserve the integrity of the artifacts as much as possible with the need to carry out radiocarbon analyses, the researchers therefore developed an innovative method that, thanks to a camera coupled with near-infrared, allows them to detect the average collagen content in the observed samples.

“We used imaging technology to quantify the presence of collagen in bone samples in a non-destructive way to select the most suitable samples (or sample regions) to be submitted to radiocarbon dating analysis,” says Cristina Malegori, first author of the article and researcher at Genoa University Department of Pharmacy. “Near-infrared hyperspectral imaging (HSI) was used along with a chemometric model to create chemical images of the distribution of collagen in ancient bones. This model quantifies the collagen at every pixel and thus provides a chemical mapping of collagen content.”

It is extremely difficult, costly, and time-consuming to analyze all the bones present at one archaeological site for collagen preservation, most importantly, it would result in the destruction of valuable material. In fact, human fossils and/or bone artifacts are increasingly rarer and more precious over time. Because of the diagenetic alteration of collagen over time, large starting weights of Palaeolithic bones (≥ 500 mg bone material) are necessary to extract sufficient collagen for accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating (minimum 1% yield). Moreover, many of the most precious archaeological bones are too small (< 200 mg of bone material) and/or too beautiful for sampling. Therefore, obtaining preliminary, non-destructive information about the distribution of collagen on a bone sample is crucial.

It is in this context that the technique described in this study really shines because it allows obtaining information both on the location and on the content of the collagen still present in a bone sample.

“The near-infrared hyperspectral imaging camera (NIR-HSI) used in the present study is a line-scan (push-broom) system that acquires chemical images in which, for every pixel, a full spectrum in the 1,000–2,500 nm spectral range (near infrared) is recorded,” says Giorgia Sciutto, co-author of the article and professor of environmental and cultural heritage chemistry at the University of Bologna. “NIR-HSI analysis is completely non-destructive. The time required for the analysis of a single bone sample is of few minutes and, therefore, the system can examine many samples in a single day to find those suitable for analysis, saving time and money and the unnecessary waste of valuable material, greatly reducing time, costs and destruction of valuable samples.”

This technique is expected to support the selection of samples to be submitted to radiocarbon analysis at many sites where previous attempts have not been possible because of poor preservation.

“This new technique allows not only selecting the best specimens but also choosing the sampling point in the selected ones based on the amount of collagen predicted,” says Paolo Oliveri co-author of the paper and professor at the Genoa University Department of Pharmacy. “This method helps to drastically reduce the number of samples destroyed for 14C analysis, and within the bone, it helps to avoid the selection of areas that may present a quantity of collagen not sufficient for the dating. This increases the preservation of precious archaeological materials.”

“The potential of the method proposed in the present study lies in the type and amount of information that the predictive model provides, addressing two fundamental and complementary questions for the characterization of collagen in bones: how much and where,” says Cristina Malegori, first author of the article.

Thus, this experimental approach can provide quantitative information related to the average collagen content present in the whole sample submitted for investigation. The examination can be performed not only in small and localized areas (as in single-point analysis), but it can also consider the entire surface of the sample, thus producing a higher and much more significant amount of data. In addition, combining the HSI system with PLS regression allowed, for the first time, on samples of ancient bones, not only to determine the overall collagen content but also to localize it at a high spatial resolution (about 30 um), obtaining quantitative chemical maps.

“As far as radiocarbon is concerned, we could strategically sample bones of high patrimonial value. For example, knowing the precise amount of collagen concentrated in a precise area of the bone allows us to cut only this portion,” says Talamo. “Moreover when the prediction of collagen shows that the bone was poorly preserved, we can decide to perform a soft 14C pretreatment to minimize collagen loss during the extraction”.

Overall, this innovative and incisive combination of NIR-HSI spectroscopy prescreening and the radiocarbon method provides, for the first time, detailed information about the presence of collagen on archaeological bones, reducing laboratory costs by dating only materials suitable for 14C and increasing the number of archaeological bones that can be preserved, and, therefore, available for future research.

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JOURNAL

Communications Chemistry

ARTICLE TITLE

Near-infrared hyperspectral imaging to map collagen content in prehistoric bones for radiocarbon dating

Lessons learned from COVID: The role of social media

Researchers found that social media played a critical role in decreasing COVID positivity rates at educational institutions

Peer-Reviewed Publication

RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE

 

IMAGE: SEBASTIAN SOUYRIS, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR AND DEAN R. WELLINGTON ’83 (JUNIOR) CHAIR AT RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE’S LALLY SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, AND ANTON IVANOV, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR IN THE GIES COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS URBANA-CHAMPAIGN. view more 

CREDIT: RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE

Now that we’ve arguably rounded the corner from the pandemic, researchers are dissecting our response and how we can improve it in the future.

Sebastian Souyris, assistant professor and Dean R. Wellington ’83 (Junior) Chair at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute’s Lally School of Management, contributed to research led by Anton Ivanov, assistant professor in the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. This recently published research examined social media’s impact on health outcomes and dove into the power of visual nudges.

The research team discovered that employing social media posts as a means of visual nudging to encourage safe behaviors significantly impacts COVID-19 positivity rates. Images that communicated the value of wearing masks made a real difference. This effect remains evident even after accounting for various organizational characteristics and disease dynamics at multiple levels.

“Our findings are significant to public health institutions and experts,” Souyris said. “Visual nudges are non-invasive, cost-effective methods to shape attitudes and behavior.”

The team found that visual nudges by institutional actors, such as a university, result in decreased COVID-19 positivity rates of up to 25%. Further, the value of these visual nudges is highest three to five weeks in advance.

“Our empirical results show that four to five weeks of accumulation usually create the momentum required for people to bring that topic to the top of their agenda,” Ivanov said.

High levels of uncertainty added to the public health challenge of COVID-19. After public places shut down, there was a lack of consensus on what they should do to reopen safely. Previous research found that in such a climate, mandates are not enough to ensure maximum compliance and that social media is a critical outreach tool.

The team, which included Dr. Souyris, built upon existing research and the relatively new concept of nudge theory. Nudge theory focuses on using indirect suggestions and positive reinforcement to influence behavior, especially when applied visually. Prior to this study, visual nudges specific to social media had not been explored extensively.

The team analyzed data from 117 universities nationwide. They examined COVID-19 testing data; Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter images from official university accounts; university policies; and university and local characteristics. They found that so-called “soft” visual nudges were most effective, in that they did not have a direct message to wear a mask but simply depicted people wearing masks.

“Although we certainly hope that a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic will not happen again, it behooves us to learn from our experience to enable a more effective response in the future,” said Chanaka Edirisinghe, acting dean of Rensselaer’s Lally School of Management. “Dr. Souyris’ research profiles the benefits of using the simple, inexpensive tool of social media to deliver vital public health information.”

About Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute:

Founded in 1824, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute is America’s first technological research university. Rensselaer encompasses five schools, over 30 research centers, more than 140 academic programs including 25 new programs, and a dynamic community made up of over 6,800 students and 104,000 living alumni. Rensselaer faculty and alumni include upwards of 155 National Academy members, six members of the National Inventors Hall of Fame, six National Medal of Technology winners, five National Medal of Science winners, and a Nobel Prize winner in Physics. With nearly 200 years of experience advancing scientific and technological knowledge, Rensselaer remains focused on addressing global challenges with a spirit of ingenuity and collaboration. To learn more, please visit www.rpi.edu.

Visit the Rensselaer research and discovery blog: https://everydaymatters.rpi.edu/

Follow us on Twitter: @RPINews

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JOURNAL

Production and Operations Management

DOI

10.1111/poms.13982 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Informational value of visual nudges during crises: Improving public health outcomes through social media engagement amid covid-19

Timely pandemic countermeasures

reduce both health damage and

economic loss

Peer-Reviewed Publication

TOHOKU UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: COSTS OF PATH A ARE COMPARED WITH THOSE OF PATH B. BOTH THE ECONOMIC AND MEDICAL COSTS OF PATH A ARE HIGHER THAN THOSE OF PATH B, REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE PATHS view more 

CREDIT: TSUYOSHI HONDOU

The COVID-19 pandemic has had, and continues to have, profound impacts on the world. In the early stages of the pandemic, many countries adopted stringent countermeasures to limit the spread of the disease. These included extended lockdowns, particularly when medical care systems were pushed to the brink.

But these measures also had a significant socioeconomic impact, with many losing their jobs and/or reporting an uptick in depression and other negative impacts on their mental health. As such, economists have begun to examine numerically the cost-benefit of such measures. Yet, numbers can only get us so far. Tsuyoshi Hondou, an associate professor at Tohoku University's Graduate School of Science, has turned to an alternative source for answers: physics.

Hondou's physics-based analysis determined that embracing early, less severe preventative measures helped slow the spread of disease and lessened economic damage. "We formulated a theoretical framework using methodologies from physics, to gain results unattainable by conventional methods of economics," said Hondou. "We analytically demonstrated that adopting timely and moderate measurers reconciled the medical effectiveness and economic impact."

Physics often employs simple models, where a few elements essential to a system are examined. Despite the simplicity, this form of analysis still provides deep insights and high predictability.

Likewise, Hondou's framework assumed minimal and common factors pertaining to pandemic regulation and economics. From there, it derived analytical inequalities - mathematical expressions that establish a relationship between two or more variables where one is greater than or less than another - for the medical and economic costs of different countermeasures.

These inequalities showed that small but steady countermeasures slowed the infection rate and limited the economic fallout better than strict countermeasures implemented just before a crisis.

"Our general but robust findings indicate that delaying countermeasures leads to cost increases, and once the infected population climbs more than the population under timely and moderate measurers, the system becomes economically irreversible as additional expenditures begin to snowball," adds Hondou.

Hondou, however, cautions that the findings are based only on the most essential properties of a pandemic. "Still, our results can serve as a useful basis for considering more realistic situations."

Details of his findings were published in the Journal of the Physical Society of Japan on March 29, 2023.

Example of delay effects in countermeasures in path A of Fig. 1. No measure is assumed in the 1st segment between t=0 and t=T1. As path B is a reference and independent of the delay, the ratio of the cost of path A to that of path B shows how the delay affects costs. The greater the period T1, the larger the delay in countermeasures. Medical cost is assumed to be proportional to the infected population, for simplicity. (a) Medical cost, (b) Intervention cost.

CREDIT

Tsuyoshi Hondou

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JOURNAL

Journal of the Physical Society of Japan

DOI

10.7566/JPSJ.92.043801 

ARTICLE TITLE

Timely Pandemic Countermeasures Reduce both Health Damage and Economic Loss: Generality of the Exact Solution

Worldwide, those with ‘traditional’ values adhered more strictly to COVID precautions

UCLA-led study could help officials tailor health and safety policies to appeal to populations with a variety of social views

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - LOS ANGELES

Given the battles over COVID-19 rules and recommendations in the United States over the past three years, the findings of a new UCLA-led study may come as a bit of a shock: Globally, those who professed to hold traditional values tended to adhere more closely to coronavirus-prevention measures than those who considered themselves more liberal.

“Across a wide range of countries, people who endorsed traditional cultural values — a position that often underlies socially conservative political philosophies — were more likely to report taking strict COVID-19 precautions, despite the opposite pattern being observed in the U.S.,” said study author Theodore Samore, a UCLA doctoral student in anthropology.

The findings, published today in the peer-reviewed, open-access journal Scientific Reports, have important implications for understanding how people around the world may respond to future disease outbreaks and measures designed to protect them from pandemics and other global threats. The results, the authors say, can help public health officials better craft policies that account for differences in values across populations.

Previous research on the intersection of politics and psychology has shown that social conservatives are more strongly attuned to threats and dangers than social liberals, who tend to view the world as a generally safe place. Conservatives and traditionalists, therefore, display a stronger inclination to embrace protective behaviors. Although the specific issues on which conservatives and liberals differ can vary from country to country, all societies have some values that considered traditional.

The COVID-19 pandemic allowed social scientists to examine this relationship between traditionalism and threat response on a global scale. To counter the threat of the virus in its early days, before vaccines were widely available, public health officials around the world recommended similar precautionary measures, including hand-washing, mask-wearing and physical distancing.

An international team of 44 scholars led by Samore and anthropology professor Daniel Fessler surveyed nearly 8,000 people in 27 countries across North America, South America, Europe, Asia and Africa. The researchers asked participants to respond to a series of questions and statements — for example, “Traditions are the foundation of a healthy society and should be respected” — to determine if they considered themselves to be “traditional.” They followed up with queries about which precautionary measures people took in their efforts to avoid becoming infected with COVID-19.

In 21 of the 27 countries, the investigators found a strong link between traditional values and strict adherence to precautionary behaviors. In some societies, the effect was small but significant; in others, it was more substantial.

Digging deeper, they found that individuals balanced the relative benefits of taking precautions to mitigate the risk of a hazardous disease against the social costs and missed opportunities entailed by being cautious — and that a person’s values influenced how much weight they place on the latter.

The results did not seem to differ any way based on where the country was located or how economically developed it was.

Why the difference with American conservatives?

In the U.S. — which has been shown to be something of a global outlier in this regard — the investigators found that factors like a distrust of science, concerns about the effects disease precautions may have on the economy and the desire to preserve personal liberties suppressed the predicted cautionary decision-making of social conservatives, even though that group is more likely to self-describe as “traditional.”

“In countries where the discourse around science and trust was less polarized, traditionalists were more willing to embrace precautions than their more socially liberal counterparts,” Fessler said. “The U.S., where these topics were highly politicized, suffered more COVID-19 deaths per capita than any other highly developed nation.”

American social conservatives, for example, were more likely to attend a group religious observance at a church or temple even though public health officials had recommended avoiding large gatherings. However, after the investigators took into account that these social conservatives trusted science less and were more concerned about the economy than their socially liberal counterparts, the expected relationship between traditionalism and heightened precautions appeared in the U.S. too.

The researchers said that designing health policies that resonate with less traditional people, as well as with social conservatives in the U.S. and other countries who bucked against COVID-19 precautions, will be crucial to saving lives in the future.

“Marshalling broad support for policies intended to protect the public,” Samore said, “will hinge on rebuilding widespread trust in science and crafting policies in ways that take differences in concerns and priorities seriously — and on encouraging influential information sources to provide accurate accounts of the pros and cons of those policies.”

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JOURNAL

Scientific Reports

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