Friday, May 05, 2023

The 10 Countries With The Largest Natural Gas Reserves

  • The importance of natural gas for global energy markets has become increasingly clear in the last year, and those countries with large reserves stand to benefit.

  • Unfortunately for the West, the two countries with the largest reserves of natural gas are Iran and Russia.

  • Due to the geopolitical isolation of Russia and Iran, the role of Qatar, Turkmenistan, and the United States in producing natural gas will be increasingly important in years to come.

Natural gas has been hailed as the bridge between a fossil fuel past and a low-carbon future. It has also been demonized as a Trojan horse for the fossil fuel industry to continue to be relevant in that low-carbon future envisioned by the architects of the transition.

Over the past year, events in Europe made it quite clear that envisioning a future may be a noble thing but energy needs are immediate, and gas is perfect for meeting them with a lower emission footprint than fellow fossil fuels oil and coal.

It is a bit unfortunate for Western gas consumers, then, that the countries with the biggest gas reserves in the world happen to be Russia and Iran. Fortunately, the United States is also on the list of the top 5 biggest gas reserve holders, as are several Middle Eastern countries.

#1 Russia

Russia has natural gas reserves of as much as 38 trillion cubic meters, according to the 2020 edition of BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy. Production last year totaled 573 billion cubic meters, down by 13.4% on the year.

Historically, Europe and Turkey were Russia’s biggest gas buyers, but after last year’s events, Turkey has remained the only big consumer of Russian gas with any footprint in Europe. Today, China is the main destination for Russian pipeline gas. Russia also exports LNG, and, in an ironic twist, European imports of Russian LNG rose strongly last year.

#2 Iran

The world’s second-largest natural gas reserves also happen to be in a country that doesn’t see eye to eye with the West, which is one of the biggest consumers of gas. With 32 trillion cubic meters, Iran is home to 16% of the global total.

A lot of Iran’s gas reserves are concentrated in the South Pars offshore field in the Persian Gulf, which it shares with Qatar. Total production for 2020 reached 234 billion cubic meters or a daily average of 645 million cubic meters.

Development of the country’s massive gas reserves has been challenging because of the pullout of Western supermajors such as TotalEnergies in the wake of the reinstated U.S. sanctions against Tehran.

#3 Qatar

Iran’s neighbor Qatar, which calls its part of the massive Persian Gulf field the North Field, is a notch below Iran in terms of gas reserves, with 24.7 trillion cubic meters. Until recently, the largest LNG exporter in the world, Qatar, was expanding its production capacity, aiming for 126 million tons annually from the current 77 million tons.

Qatar was a first choice for European gas buyers in the wake of the anti-Russian sanctions that saw gas flows decimated, but it turned out sealing a deal would be tougher than expected: Qatar turned out to like long-term purchase commitments, and Europe has an aversion to those.

#4 Turkmenistan

Little known outside Central Asia but one of the biggest states there, Turkmenistan is home to the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves, with a total of some 19.5 trillion cubic meters, according to BP’s statistical review.

Production is low, however, at just some 59 billion cubic meters in 2020, most of which was exported to China because domestic consumption is also relatively low. The country also exports gas to its Central Asian neighbors.

#5 United States

As with crude oil, the largest producers of gas are not necessarily the countries with the largest reserves. The U.S. has become the world’s top gas producer and LNG exporter, but it only ranks fifth in terms of reserves.

At the end of 2020, these stood at 13.179 trillion cubic meters, according to the CIA’s World Factbook, or 625.4 trillion cubic feet at the end of 2021, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Thanks to the abundance of shale gas, the United States has become a major LNG world power in a matter of years. It could cement its place as the number-one exporter within the next decade if all planned projects come online, for a total annual capacity of 169 million tons by 2027.

The rest of the top 10 countries with substantial gas reserves is dominated overwhelmingly by OPEC members. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Nigeria, and Venezuela all boast abundant gas reserves, as does China, at number 10.

Saudi Arabia comes in at number 6 with 8.5 trillion cubic meters in natural gas reserves, which it only recently decided to develop more seriously in response to growing global demand.

The OPEC de facto leader is followed by its Gulf neighbor the UAE, which OPEC estimates has some 8.2 trillion cubic meters in natural gas reserves. The country’s state oil and gas company recently spun off its gas business, which turned into the biggest IPO for the year, fetching ADNOC $2.5 billion.

Nigeria is next on the top-ten list, with natural gas reserves of 5.85 trillion cubic meters. This makes it the country with the largest proven natural gas reserves in Africa, but utilizing these reserves has lagged behind the utilization of its oil reserves.

Venezuela is also among the world’s top natural gas reserve holders, with 5.54 trillion cubic meters in proven reserves. The exploitation of those reserves, however, is mismatched with the volume of gas it is sitting on, especially since 2019 when the U.S. slammed Caracas with sanctions specifically targeting its oil and gas industry.

The last entry on the top-ten list of gas reserve holders may be a bit surprising. It is China, the world’s largest energy importer and one of the largest consumers. The country, which imports massive amounts of oil and gas, has substantial reserves of its own, but it has been challenging to tap them in volumes large enough to satisfy its fast-growing demand.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

TECHNO-MYTH

Carbon Capture Is Beginning To Take Off

  • As governments move to back carbon capture projects and corporations look to reduce their carbon footprint

  • In the U.K., the Spring Budget in March made up to $25 billion available for Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage.

  • Companies are signing long-term carbon credit agreements with developers of carbon capture technologies, which supports the investment case of CCS projects.

Carbon capture projects and carbon removal credits have received new impetus with major government support over the past year as part of the solutions to cut greenhouse gas emissions and put the world on track to reach the Paris Agreement targets. 

In the U.K., the Spring Budget in March made up to $25 billion (£20 billion) available for Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS), while the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act has significantly raised the incentives for carbon capture projects, including direct air capture (DAC).  

As governments move to back carbon capture projects and corporations look to reduce their carbon footprint, the market for carbon removal projects and carbon removal credits is expected to thrive in the coming years. 

The schemes face criticism from environmental advocates who say that carbon removal credits do not address the problem of emissions reduction and could lead to more greenwashing from the big polluters. 

Government Support Accelerates Carbon Capture Projects

The U.K. government pledged to provide up to £20 billion in funding for early deployment of Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS) to help meet the government’s climate commitments. 

The government recognized the Viking CCS project as one of two leading transport and storage system contenders for the next phase of projects. This has incentivized supermajor B.P. to enter into an agreement with Harbour Energy, the biggest oil producer in the U.K. North Sea, to develop the Viking CCS project.

In the United States, the IRA increased credit values across the board, with the tax credit for carbon storage from carbon capture on industrial and power generation facilities rising from $50 to $85 per ton, and the tax incentives for storage from DAC jumping from $50 to $180 per ton. The provisions also extend the construction window by seven years to January 1, 2033. This means that projects must begin physical work by then to qualify for the credit. 

The significantly higher incentives in the IRA are giving impetus to projects. 

“The CCS market has just taken off,” Nick Cooper, CEO at carbon capture and storage developer Storegga, told the Financial Times

“This feels a bit like the U.S. shale boom 15 years ago”.

The historic legislation “builds the foundation for a budding direct air capture industry in the U.S.,” says Aaron Benjamin, UK and Europe Lead at Direct Air Capture Coalition. 

“Above all, the IRA sends a strong signal to the rest of the world that the U.S. is backing the reality of a carbon capture and removal industry,” Benjamin added. 

New Life For Carbon Capture Projects  

The IRA and the growing commitment of companies – from banks to the fashion industry – to become carbon neutral within a decade or two are spurring construction projects in the U.S. and the U.K. 

Occidental, for example, via its subsidiary 1PointFive, held last week a groundbreaking ceremony for its first Direct Air Capture facility in the Permian basin in West Texas. The facility, STRATOS, will be the world’s largest direct air capture facility, expected to capture up to 500,000 tons of CO2 per year. It will be the first of many such plants Oxy and 1PointFive plan to build, the oil giant says. 

DAC is the most expensive application of carbon capture, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says. Capture cost estimates for DAC are estimated at between $125 and $335 per ton of CO2 for a large-scale plant built today. 

But the incentives in the IRA could bridge the gap in costs, analysts say. 

Carbon Removal Deals Abound 

Companies are signing long-term carbon credit agreements with developers of carbon capture technologies, which supports the investment case of CCS projects, according to experts.  

Just last month, major deals for carbon removal and credits were signed. 

NextGen, a joint venture of climate project developer South Pole and Mitsubishi Corporation, announced the advance purchase of 193,125 tons of carbon dioxide removals (CDRs) from carbon removal projects, including from 1PointFive’s DAC project in Texas. 

Partners Group, a global private markets firm, signed last month a 13-year agreement with Climeworks, a Swiss provider of carbon dioxide removal via direct air capture. Partners Group announced last year that it would develop a decarbonization program to achieve net-zero corporate greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.  

“While a priority of the program will be to reduce the firm’s overall emissions, removing residual emissions via capture and storage of atmospheric CO2 will also play a role in achieving the net zero goal,” Partners Group said. 

“High-quality carbon removal must be scaled to gigaton level by 2050, and multi-year agreements like this one are a crucial lever,” said Christoph Gebald, co-founder and co-CEO of Climeworks. 

“Partners Group’s commitment to high-quality carbon removals underlines the leading role of the financial services industry in this scale-up.” 

Climate groups, however, are not convinced that carbon removal deals would accelerate global emissions reduction.  

For example, the European Commission’s proposed Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF) “leaves many important questions unanswered and vital issues unaddressed, and could usher in an era of greenwashed and money-wasting carbon removals,” non-profit think tank Carbon Market Watch says

In the EC’s draft regulation, “there is a risk for the framework to be turned into a greenwashing exercise and provide another excuse for big polluters to avoid cutting their emissions,” according to WWF.   

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Oil Tanker Catches Fire Near Malaysia

Energy expert Anas Alhajji shared a video on Twitter that appears to show, according to his description, "An oil tanker, known for transporting Iranian oil, catching fire off the coast of Malaysia."


Bloomberg said the vessel is named "Pablo," a Gabon-registered Aframax-class crude oil tanker whose insurers are unknown. The vessel burst into flames about 40 nautical miles from Pulau Tinggi, an island off Malaysia's southeastern coast. According to ship-tracking data, Pablo was traveling from China and was empty. At full capacity, the vessel is designed to hold 700,000 barrels.

On Monday, the vessel Pablo caught fire while empty. Weather satellites managed to capture video of black smoke billowing from the ship.

"A vast shadow fleet of aging tankers has been enlisted to carry sanctioned oil across the globe, raising questions about safety and insurance standards," Bloomberg said. The aging vessel was built in 1997. A shipping source said Pablo was recently observed in Iranian waters.

The Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore wrote in a statement that 25 out of 28 crew members were rescued by passing vessels. Three crew members were reported missing. 

Pablo might be part of a "shadow" fleet of tankers transporting oil from countries sanctioned by the US, such as Iran. The issue with these ships is that some may be uninsured or lack seaworthiness certifications, increasing their vulnerability to accidents. 

As we've recently noted, Russia has a massive shadow fleet of more than 100 tankers to circumnavigate Western sanctions.

By Zerohedge.com

IMF: Saudi Arabia Needs Oil Prices At $80.90 To Balance Budget

  • The IMF said in its latest economic projections that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $80.90 per barrel to balance its budget this year.

  • This is a lower breakeven price than in 2021 and 2022, but remains higher than the average breakeven price for the two decades prior to 2019.

  • The IMF expects Saudi Arabia to run a budget deficit of 1.1% of GDP this year due to its production cuts.

Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $80.90 per barrel to balance its budget this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday in its latest economic projections for the Middle East and Central Asia.

The breakeven price for the world's largest crude oil exporter for 2023 is estimated to be lower than the $83.60 and $85.80 a barrel levels of 2021 and 2022, respectively, but higher than the $80.40 breakeven average for the two decades to 2019.

Economic growth in OPEC's de facto leader is set to materially slow down from 8.7% last year to 3.1% this year and next, according to the IMF.

Real GDP growth for oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to slow from 5.7% in 2022 to 3.1% in 2023 (and to broadly maintain that pace in 2024) "as the main driver of growth in most oil exporters shifts to nonhydrocarbon activities, reflecting agreed oil production cuts," the fund's economists said. 

Saudi Arabia led a group of several major OPEC+ producers who announced in early April a surprise 1.66 million bpd cut in production between May and December this year as "a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market."

Due to lower revenues from decreased oil production, the IMF now expects Saudi Arabia to run a budget deficit of 1.1% of GDP this year, contrary to the Kingdom's projections for another year of a budget surplus after the first surplus in a decade booked for 2022. 

Saudi Arabia's budget is set to be close to balance this year, compared to a surplus of 2.5% last year, due to lower expected average oil price in 2023 ($85 a barrel per Fitch projections) and lower oil production, Fitch Ratings said last month as it upgraded Saudi Arabia's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) to 'A+' from 'A,' citing the Kingdom's strong fiscal position and "formidable" foreign reserves.

But Saudi dependence on oil remains high, although it has fallen in the past decade. The high oil dependence remains a rating weakness for Saudi Arabia's economy, in addition to weak World Bank governance indicators and vulnerability to geopolitical shocks, Fitch noted.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com