Best path to fair living wage for global supply chain workers may take an indirect route new research suggests

Initiative by retailer H&M program achieves significant wage increase for factory workers

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO, ROTMAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT

Toronto - Want to make a positive difference in the wage conditions of developing country factory workers churning out products for multinational firms?

Paying them more seems an obvious first step. But research looking at the experience of clothing retailer H&M Group suggests a less direct approach — by intervening at the management practice level — can empower workers and significantly raise wages in sustainable ways, multiplying the impact of the company’s investment many times over.

In 2013, following activist pressure for reform, H&M went to its suppliers and asked them to voluntarily implement two programs designed to raise workers’ pay. A workplace dialogue program promoted workers’ awareness of their rights and formal opportunities for communication between management and workers or their labour representatives.

A separate wage management system included the creation of clear and transparent pay grids aimed at fairly compensating workers based on their education, experience, skills and performance. H&M also implemented standardized systems to measure and track workers’ wages.

Across some 1800 factories in nine countries, almost all in Asia, wages went up an average of five percent by the third year of implementation. This represented about $44 U.S. per worker annually, compared to H&M’s investment in the initiative of $4.57 million – or $1.62 per worker.

“The easiest way to raise wages would have been to just give the money directly to be paid to the workers. But H&M took a long-term approach, where they’re implementing systems,” said Jee-Eun Shin, an assistant professor of accounting at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management. She co-authored the research with Gregory Distelhorst, an associate professor at U of T’s Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources, who is also cross appointed to the Rotman School’s strategic management area. 

While the wage increase was modest, “seeing a positive effect is already a huge step forward,” said Prof. Shin. “Given the risk, there’s a lot of incentive for suppliers not to be part of this.”

Suppliers who adopted the programs remained competitive on prices, yet also saw significant increases in their orders. While the researchers were unable to empirically verify how the suppliers were able to cover the increased wages – there was no significant change in overtime pay or cuts to a supplier’s workforce, for example -- their anecdotal evidence suggested that increased productivity was a major contributor.

Labour union presence in the adopting factories did not appear to significantly amplify the wage effects, the study found. Prof. Shin said this was not especially surprising given the limited power trade unions have in the regions studied.

The study also highlights how corporations’ social practices can be assessed, using standardized metrics, given that such sustainability measures have been harder to establish, compared to those for things like environmental or governance practices.

Prof. Shin credited H&M for being so entrepreneurial with its program, for working to establish appropriate metrics to measure the impact of its wage-related initiatives and for being open with its data.

“A collective approach is needed,” to improve conditions for workers, she said, “and corporations like big multi-nationals, if they really want to make a change, they have huge powers to do that.”

The study was published in the Journal of Accounting Research. 

Bringing together high-impact faculty research and thought leadership on one searchable platform, the new Rotman Insights Hub offers articles, podcasts, opinions, books and videos representing the latest in management thinking and providing insights into the key issues facing business and society. Visit www.rotman.utoronto.ca/insightshub.

The Rotman School of Management is part of the University of Toronto, a global centre of research and teaching excellence at the heart of Canada’s commercial capital. Rotman is a catalyst for transformative learning, insights and public engagement, bringing together diverse views and initiatives around a defining purpose: to create value for business and society. For more information, visit www.rotman.utoronto.ca

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JOURNAL

Journal of Accounting Research

DOI

10.1111/1475-679X.12472 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Assessing the Social Impact of Corporations: Evidence from Management Control Interventions in the Supply Chain to Increase Worker Wages

COI STATEMENT

This research was conducted under a research agreement between H&M Group andthe University of Toronto. Neither the university nor the authors received any funding from H&M Group connected to this research.

ICTA-UAB demands the European Parliament to take action to fight pollution in the Mediterranean Sea

Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITAT AUTONOMA DE BARCELONA

The implementation of effective policies at local and regional level, and the cooperation of all countries in the Mediterranean Sea basin is urgently needed to successfully reverse the environmental problems in this marine area. This is evidenced by a report carried out by the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) presented in the European Parliament by oceanographer Patrizia Ziveri, who stresses the need to urgently fight against the growing pollution caused by marine litter and plastics in the Mediterranean, to improve current legislation and to monitor new pollutants that require immediate regulation.

The study, requested by the Committee on Regional Development (REGI) Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies of the European Parliament, provides an exhaustive analysis of the current situation of the Mediterranean Sea, a global pollution hotspot, as well as the actions taken by the cities and regions of the Mediterranean countries of the European Union to reduce the generation and dispersion of marine pollutants. The study makes policy recommendations and points out that pollution affects both marine environment and fauna, as well as human health.

The Mediterranean is one of the world's marine areas under human pressure. Its high rates of population and urbanization (150 million inhabitants on its coasts), industrial activity, tourism (one third of the world's volume) and fishing have led to a rapid increase in pollution. It accounts for up to 30% of global shipping activity. This, combined with a geomorphological configuration in the form of a semi-enclosed basin and its specific oceanic circulation, has made the Mediterranean Sea one of the most polluted spots on the planet and a natural trap for marine litter, mainly plastics.

Between 80 and 90 per cent of marine litter in the basin is plastic, and an estimated 230,000 tonnes of land-sourced plastic leak into the sea each year. Tourism is the main sector contributing to beach litter (up to 60%) followed by fishing and aquaculture (5-10%). Only 10 types of items account for 66.4% of the beach litter in the Mediterranean Sea, 9 of them are made partly or entirely of plastic, and 7 of them of single-use plastic. Cigarette butts and cigarette filters are the most common (27.3%). Shipping activities are estimated to contribute up to 20,000 tonnes of plastic per year.

The ICTA-UAB report Actions of cities and regions in the Mediterranean Sea area to fight sea pollution indicates that the main cause of this situation is the massive waste generation and its mismanagement. Other causes include industrial and urban waste discharge, sewage, agricultural run-off, shipping, fishing, and maritime traffic, as well as tourism.

 "To tackle pollution, management policies must be applied to waste reduction and treatment, tourism, pollution from plastics and other pollutants, sewage and other waste from rivers," explains Patrizia Ziveri, oceanographer at ICTA-UAB. It is necessary to target the production model, consumption patterns and waste disposal practices.

In this context, "it is essential that the fight against pollution in the Mediterranean Sea is endorsed not only by EU countries, but that regulations are implemented by all Mediterranean countries through effective cooperation", she says. The implementation and success of the actions to fight marine pollution should be monitored at different stages. Best practices should be highlighted, shared, and implemented in different suitable Mediterranean regions.

The scientists stress that significant progress has been made in terms of treatment and prevention, including the implementation of the single-use plastic directive and the promotion of recycling. However, more and continued efforts are needed. The study examines the implementation of the EU's single-use plastics directive in France, Spain, Italy, and Greece, and calls for a strategy to reduce plastics which includes market restrictions, improved waste management and agreements between consumers and producers.

"Efforts to reduce the use of plastics must continue in order to meet environmental targets. There is an urgent need to focus on the EU's strategy targets for key sectors, such as consumption patterns, production, and waste management," says Michael Grelaud, ICTA-UAB oceanographer and co-author of the report.

"Some actions to limit marine-based pollution (fisheries, aquaculture, shipping, mining) already exist, but they often face challenges in terms of effective implementation because this is often reduced to voluntary collaborations by states," says Jorge Pato, also co-author of the report.

Some of the other measures they propose in different areas are:

 

1. Emerging pollutants. This refers to new pollutants such as pharmaceuticals, UV filters, flame retardants or pesticides that reach the sea through agricultural, urban and industrial runoff or coastal wastewater treatment plants.

 

1. Microplastics. They point out that there are no regulations for the growing problem of microplastics. "Microplastic pollution should be established as a priority issue in the Mediterranean agenda, capable of leading to binding agreements”. They point to the establishment of bans and reduction targets in the manufacture of fabrics and cosmetics, monitoring the entry of microplastics into the sea in all water-channels, including rivers and sewage outflows. Strict regulation of ship paint and antifouling coatings is needed.

 

1. Marine noise pollution. Shipping, oil and gas exploration, construction and maintenance of offshore structures, and military activities are a dangerous source of noise pollution affecting marine fauna, causing behavioural disturbances, communication disruption, hearing damage, stress and even death. They propose the creation of particularly sensitive sea areas where noise levels are restricted (with special attention to migratory routes, breeding grounds and biodiversity hotspots), the use of quieter ship models and the reduction of ship speeds.

 

1. Rivers, wastewater treatment and harbours. The challenge in managing water pollution lies in the implementation of policies by the signatory countries. This is particularly evident given the varying levels of economic development among the Mediterranean nations. They are committed to the cyclical reuse of treated effluent for agriculture to reduce spending on fertilisers and the recovery of organic wastewater from urban areas as a valuable agricultural resource.

 

1. Aquaculture. Pollutes by discharging untreated waste, using chemicals, and releasing excess nutrients. This harms aquatic life, promotes harmful algal blooms, and poisons fish and other marine species with antibiotics and heavy metals, so regulation of these excess nutrients in aquaculture is needed. EU policies for Mediterranean countries should implement the Voluntary Guidelines on the Marking of Fishing Gear to eliminate abandoned, lost or otherwise discarded fishing gear and encourage the recovery of marine litter through compensation.

 

1. Implementation of initiatives in coastal cities on waste characterization and monitoring. Examples include the use of smart waste bins that alert waste management teams when they are full; awareness-raising campaigns oriented to beach users; monitoring of debris and litter on the main commercial routes in the Mediterranean or the adaptation of packaging that is not possible to ban with alternative sustainable solutions.

 

1. Mediterranean islands. Promote sustainable tourism; limit the generation of coastal litter by improving general awareness of the problem; limit the impact of tourism by introducing a visiting fee for litter-free coastal attractions; develop comprehensive waste management plans with the involvement of local communities; and introduce regulations to create smoke-free beaches.

 

Full report (English) https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2023/733123/IPOL_STU(2023)733123_EN.pdf

 

Why good weather isn’t a good thing for stock markets

A study suggests sunny weather can influence how investors perform and affect stock market prices

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF PORTSMOUTH

Sunshine levels have a significant impact on the bidding behaviour of stock market investors, according to new research. 

The study examined the relationship between sunny weather and how market participants perform, as well as the subsequent seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). These discounts for shares act as an effective tool for companies to raise finance and are essential for a functioning modern economy.

To see if decisions were influenced by sunshine intensity and duration, an international team including researchers from the University of Portsmouth’s Centre for Innovative and Sustainable Finance, examined weather station data to determine the periods when the climate exerts the greatest influence on investors.

The data revealed investors made higher bids in sunny periods, which led to lower discounts for shares in the primary market. In fact, just a one standard deviation increase in sunshine intensity caused bid discounts to decline by 2.4 percent, while a one standard deviation increase in sunshine duration caused bid discounts to drop by 3.33 percent.

Professor Jia Liu, CISF Centre Director and Professor of Accounting and Finance at the University of Portsmouth, said: “With sunny weather, often come good spirits – which in many circumstances is a positive, but that’s not the case with financial decision-making. When the sunshine intensifies, bidders become overly optimistic and less risk-averse, which can lead to higher bid prices for seasoned equities.”

Existing research has shown meteorological conditions, especially exposure to sunshine, affects a person’s emotional state and sentiment. These weather-driven moods have been proved to influence a buyer’s car choice, art prices at auction, and the tendency to take risks in a lottery.

It was Edward Saunders who first established a link between investment behaviour in Wall Street and the weather 20 years ago.

“Saunders inspired our study”, explained Professor Liu.

“His results strongly supported the hypothesis that investor psychology influences asset prices. And despite strong evidence that this has a large economic impact, there has since been little research into the relationship between the weather and stock market performance in the primary stock market. Saunders’ study only examined stock prices in the secondary market though, so we decided to go a step further and looked at the investor’s individual behavior in the primary market.

Professor Shenghao Gao, at the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, China, said: “The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) requires that SEO issuers disclose detailed investor bidding information during the SEO auction process, providing us with a unique opportunity to examine the effect of sunshine-induced mood on investors’ decisions in the primary market.”

The team sampled 1,625 auction-style SEOs representing 28,321 bids from 2,978 investors between 2006 and 2019. -In addition to a connection between sunshine and a bidder’s decision-making, they also discovered that this effect increases when a company's SEO offering is more complex, or its corporate background is less familiar to them. 

The paper, published in the Journal of Corporate Finance, says the findings have important implications for investors in the primary market, who need to be aware of the impact that weather conditions can have on their investment decisions.

Professor Liu added: “We want to make investors aware that during periods of sunny weather, they become more optimistic about their investments. This will make them more inclined to take risks that aren’t justified by asset values. Therefore, they should factor this consideration in when bidding for shares or they might suffer losses.

“The study has profound implications for policy and practice. The growing instability of weather systems throughout the world, and the established connections between climatic conditions and investors’ behaviors, makes this an issue of increasing relevance in a financially interdependent world. 

“Maintaining the stability of markets could depend upon our understanding of this phenomenon, since the onset of climate change might have an increasingly destabilizing impact on the judgment of investors and market-makers, with unpredictable consequences for global trading.”

Sunshine levels have a significant impact on the bidding behaviour of stock market investors, according to new research. 

The study examined the relationship between sunny weather and how market participants perform, as well as the subsequent seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). These discounts for shares act as an effective tool for companies to raise finance and are essential for a functioning modern economy.

To see if decisions were influenced by sunshine intensity and duration, an international team including researchers from the University of Portsmouth’s Centre for Innovative and Sustainable Finance, examined weather station data to determine the periods when the climate exerts the greatest influence on investors.

The data revealed investors made higher bids in sunny periods, which led to lower discounts for shares in the primary market. In fact, just a one standard deviation increase in sunshine intensity caused bid discounts to decline by 2.4 percent, while a one standard deviation increase in sunshine duration caused bid discounts to drop by 3.33 percent.

Professor Jia Liu, CISF Centre Director and Professor of Accounting and Finance at the University of Portsmouth, said: “With sunny weather, often come good spirits – which in many circumstances is a positive, but that’s not the case with financial decision-making. When the sunshine intensifies, bidders become overly optimistic and less risk-averse, which can lead to higher bid prices for seasoned equities.”

Existing research has shown meteorological conditions, especially exposure to sunshine, affects a person’s emotional state and sentiment. These weather-driven moods have been proved to influence a buyer’s car choice, art prices at auction, and the tendency to take risks in a lottery.

It was Edward Saunders who first established a link between investment behaviour in Wall Street and the weather 20 years ago.

“Saunders inspired our study”, explained Professor Liu.

“His results strongly supported the hypothesis that investor psychology influences asset prices. And despite strong evidence that this has a large economic impact, there has since been little research into the relationship between the weather and stock market performance in the primary stock market. Saunders’ study only examined stock prices in the secondary market though, so we decided to go a step further and looked at the investor’s individual behavior in the primary market.

Professor Shenghao Gao, at the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, China, said: “The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) requires that SEO issuers disclose detailed investor bidding information during the SEO auction process, providing us with a unique opportunity to examine the effect of sunshine-induced mood on investors’ decisions in the primary market.”

The team sampled 1,625 auction-style SEOs representing 28,321 bids from 2,978 investors between 2006 and 2019. -In addition to a connection between sunshine and a bidder’s decision-making, they also discovered that this effect increases when a company's SEO offering is more complex, or its corporate background is less familiar to them. 

The paper, published in the Journal of Corporate Finance, says the findings have important implications for investors in the primary market, who need to be aware of the impact that weather conditions can have on their investment decisions.

Professor Liu added: “We want to make investors aware that during periods of sunny weather, they become more optimistic about their investments. This will make them more inclined to take risks that aren’t justified by asset values. Therefore, they should factor this consideration in when bidding for shares or they might suffer losses.

“The study has profound implications for policy and practice. The growing instability of weather systems throughout the world, and the established connections between climatic conditions and investors’ behaviors, makes this an issue of increasing relevance in a financially interdependent world. 

“Maintaining the stability of markets could depend upon our understanding of this phenomenon, since the onset of climate change might have an increasingly destabilizing impact on the judgment of investors and market-makers, with unpredictable consequences for global trading.”

---

JOURNAL

Journal of Corporate Finance

DOI

10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102411 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Sunshine-induced mood and SEO pricing: Evidence from detailed investor bids in SEO auctions

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

3-Apr-2023

Domestic abuse exposure linked to increased levels of asthma and other atopic diseases

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM

Women who have suffered domestic abuse may have a higher risk of developing atopic diseases including asthma, new research has found.

Published today in the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology: In Practice, the research led by the University of Birmingham found that in analysis of patient records, there were a significantly larger percentage of women who had atopic diseases and had a history of being exposed to domestic abuse and violence compared to those who hadn’t.

Dr Joht Singh Chandan from the University of Birmingham and corresponding author of the study said:

“After adjusting for possible cofounders, our results show women with a recorded exposure to domestic violence and abuse had a 52% increased risk of developing atopic diseases,”

“Domestic violence and abuse is a global issue that disproportionately affects women. We set out to deepen our understanding of the health impacts of domestic violence so evidence-based public health policies can be further developed to address not only domestic violence, but secondary effects like the development of atopic diseases.”

The team of researchers performed a retrospective open cohort study in the United Kingdom, looking at adult women (those aged 18 and older) with a physician recorded exposure to domestic violence and comparing them to women over 18 without a recorded exposure. Patients with pre-existing reports of atopic disease were excluded from the study.

A total of 13,852 women were identified as being exposed to domestic violence and were matched to 49,036 similar women without a reported exposure. In total, 967/13,852 women in the exposed group (incidence rate (IR) 20.10 per 1,000 py) were diagnosed with atopic disease compared to 2,607/49,036 in the unexposed group (IR 13.24 per 1,000 py).

There were limitations to the study. Women in the exposed group were more likely to be a current smoker than women in the unexposed group. Ethnicity data was often lacking in the database and median follow-up for both groups of women was relatively short given the relapsing nature of atopic disease. Researchers hope to address these limitations in future studies. 

ENDS

Notes to editor:

 

• The University of Birmingham is ranked amongst the world’s top 100 institutions. Its work brings people from across the world to Birmingham, including researchers, teachers and more than 6,500 international students from over 150 countries.
• The University of Birmingham is a founding member of Birmingham Health Partners (BHP), a strategic alliance which transcends organisational boundaries to rapidly translate healthcare research findings into new diagnostics, drugs and devices for patients. Birmingham Health Partners is a strategic alliance between seven organisations who collaborate to bring healthcare innovations through to clinical application:
  • University of Birmingham
  • University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust
  • Birmingham Women's and Children's Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
  • Aston University
  • The Royal Orthopaedic Hospital NHS Foundation Trust
  • Sandwell and West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust
  • West Midlands Academic Health Science Network
  • Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust

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JOURNAL

Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology: In Practice

DOI

10.1016/j.jaip.2023.03.016 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Exposure to Domestic Abuse and the Subsequent Development of Atopic Disease in Women

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

5-May-2023 

LETTER FROM HUNGARY

I Was Banned From Entering CPAC Hungary’s ‘Woke Free Zone’

A dispatch from the Trumpian right’s pilgrimage to Budapest.


Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivers the keynote speech at the opening session of the Conservative Political Action Conference in Budapest, Hungary. | Szilard Koszticsak/MTI via AP

By JACOB HEILBRUNN
05/06/2023 
Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of the National Interest and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.


BUDAPEST — It’s springtime here for illiberal democracy. Once the country that opened its border with Austria in August 1989, a move that led directly to the collapse of the Berlin Wall, Hungary has since made something of a U-turn.

“Come back, Mr. President,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán declared on Thursday. “Make America Great Again and bring us peace.”

I came to Hungary to witness the not new, yet still astonishing enmeshing of the populist-nationalist American right and its European counterpart, and I didn’t have to wait long. There was Orbán endorsing Donald Trump’s 2024 bid on the first day of the Conservative Political Action Conference taking place here. Some in the audience wore T-shirts depicting Orbán and Trump as “saviors of the world.”

I was supposed to be watching all this from inside the conference, within the gleaming Bálna, or whale center, along the Danube. Instead, I was livestreaming it from my hotel room — barred from entry as a member of the media.

When I tried to attend the event earlier that day, I ran into a barrier that seemed almost as formidable as the old Berlin Wall. Two security guards loomed large before a gateway arch in front of the center entrance, which was festooned with the slogan “Woke Free Zone.” More guards and metal detectors were downstairs in the registration area.

I was surprised but not shocked by my travails. I knew that CPAC had banned many journalists, including the New Yorker’s Andrew Marantz the previous year, so last month I made sure to reach out to the Hungarian Center for Fundamental Rights, which was co-hosting the conference, to avoid precisely this scenario. I received a friendly email from Dora Gulyas, the center’s director for communication and public relations. She declared, “We are happy to provide you with a press pass consider it done.” A few days before the event, however, I received an email from the center indicating that I should watch it on the web, complete with the Kafkaesque instruction, “There is nothing further to do.” When I went to the Bálna center in a last-ditch attempt to cross the border, I was treated like an invader: “We are full.”

The gateway arch in front of the entrance of CPAC Hungary features the slogan “No Woke Zone.” | Jacob Heilbrunn for POLITICO

Once upon a time CPAC, which hosted its annual flagship event just outside Washington two months ago, was eager for media attention. But lately, CPAC officials have developed an aversion to the press, restricting many reporters and denouncing its critics as “fake journalists.” That seems particularly true as the MAGA movement has embraced Orbán and his agenda.

Hungary is now the global epicenter of the new right’s crusade against liberal democracy. It serves as an alluring model for many conservatives — a country that’s successfully neutered the media and the judiciary as well as passed an anti-LGBTQ law that’s supposed to protect the traditional family. And don’t forget Orbán’s reluctance to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s brutal invasion.

This is the second year in a row that CPAC came to Budapest, and Trump and his allies rejoiced in the blossoming relationship. In a Friday video address to the conference, Trump hailed the “freedom-loving patriots” at the conference and declared that it was imperative to “stand together to defend our borders, our Judeo-Christian values, our identity and our way of life.”



MAGA Republicans flocked to the event to profess their admiration for Hungary, like former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (top). Media personality Tucker Carlson (bottom) also made a virtual appearance. | Tibor Illyes/MTI via AP (top); Szilard Koszticsak/MTI via AP

“Our ties have never been closer,” Balázs Orbán, the affable political director for Viktor Orbán (no relation), told me about Hungary’s relations with the Republican Party. It was Thursday afternoon, and we were meeting at an outdoor bistro next to the conference center. No sooner did Balázs Orbán finish that thought than an elegantly attired Michael Anton — the former Trump administration national security council official and author of the “Flight 93 Election” essay that famously made the apocalyptic case for Trump in 2016 — stopped by to introduce himself.

With his references to Renaissance paintings and classical architecture, the bespectacled Balázs Orbán can give off an academic air, but if anyone has been working to bolster the practical political links between American and Hungarian conservatives, it’s him. He had recently returned from a trip to America, where he spoke at the Heritage Foundation’s 50th anniversary celebration, appeared on Fox News and addressed the hard-line New York Young Republican Club. As Balázs Orbán turned me into his own disciple by demonstrating how to make a Fröccs, the popular wine and soda-water drink, he explained, “It’s in Hungary’s interest to have a Republican president.”

The drink was nifty enough, but it didn’t mix entirely well with the conference itself.

As I livestreamed the event, it quickly became clear that the Bálna center was functioning as a kind of mega-church for the Trumpian right. There were sermons and homilies and exhortations. There were warnings about satanic forces. And there were promises of redemption and salvation. One speaker talked about being crucified for politically incorrect views; others worshipped at the altar of Orbánism, praising Hungary as an outpost of Christianity that was beating back the infidels and heretics.

“I stand in awe,” declared Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts. GOP Rep. Paul Gosar, who has appeared at white nationalist events in the past, agreed. “Hungary,” he said, “is a beacon.”


Former President Donald Trump delivers his video message at CPAC Hungary. | Tibor Illyes/MTI via AP

In fact, the MAGA faithful flocked to the event to profess their admiration for the Hungarian miracle. Former Arizona candidate for governor Kari Lake recently declared on Steve Bannon’s show that “Hungary is doing things right.” One thing Orbán is apparently doing right is cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Friday morning, Lake announced at the conference that there was a simple solution to ending the Ukraine conflict — sellout Kyiv to the Russians. “The only way to stop this war,” she said, “is to turn off the money spigot. I say we should invest in protecting our borders, not Ukraine’s.”

In a video message presumably taped before his abrupt ouster, former Fox News host Tucker Carlson told the Americans who were in Budapest that they were “very brave” as the State Department was “keeping track, you went to a forbidden country.” Later that day Orbán hosted Lake, Gosar and more than a dozen other American conservative activists and politicians for a photo-op at his office, including the Pizzagate conspiracy theorist Jack Posobiec and former Sen. Rick Santorum. Hungary, Orbán said, has become an “incubator where the conservative policies of the future are being tested.”

Despite the democratic erosion in Hungary and on the American right, the theme of freedom was omnipresent as various speakers denounced the European Union, among other things, as a totalitarian organization intent on inflicting gender policies on Hungary that would endanger the traditional family. Croatian parliamentarian Stephen Bartulica decried the “anti-Christian” elites in Brussels, while Roger Köppel of the far-right Swiss People’s Party likened the ideology of “woke culture” to National Socialism. The Hungarian historian Maria Schmidt stated, “We want to preserve our own culture, we want to hold on to our language, our roots, our traditions, our identity. We don’t tolerate people crawling under our duvets and interfering in our private lives.”

Throughout, the idea was clear: Liberalism is synonymous with tyranny. Hungarian Justice Minister Judit Varga, who spoke on Thursday, congratulated the delegates for successfully completing a dangerous journey — flying over authoritarian countries to reach Hungary, the only truly free country in Europe.

The fealty that leading American politicians are paying to Orbán as they troop to Budapest allows him to fortify his image in Hungary as an international statesman. Fully embracing the Republican Party is a gamble that will likely antagonize President Joe Biden, but it’s also one that could elevate Orbán should Trump return to the White House — allowing him to bypass his European detractors and exercise outsized influence.

The Biden administration, by contrast, has taken a fairly hostile approach to Orban’s Hungary, including terminating a Hungarian-American tax agreement in retaliation for Budapest preventing the EU from adopting a global minimum tax. It’s also gone to war with Biden’s ambassador, David Pressman, who regularly trolls the regime.

CPAC has been good for Orbán. A return by Trump would be even better. “A Republican president,” Balázs Orbán said, “is in Hungary’s interest.”

SINGAPORE

New psychological first aid training programme launched for SGSecure Responders

Minister of State for Home Affairs Sun Xueling said at the launch that the use of psychological first aid had helped to connect survivors with necessary resources. 

PHOTO: LIANHE ZAOBAO

Samuel Devaraj

SINGAPORE – The Singapore Red Cross (SRC) launched its inaugural psychological first aid training programme for SGSecure Responders on Saturday.

It equips participants with skills and strategies to handle emotions, thoughts and reactions triggered by stressful situations, such as a terror attack, and SRC hopes to train 1,500 responders over three years.

During the first training session on Saturday, about 20 participants from religious organisations learnt the theory of psychological first aid training before undergoing various role-play scenarios.

For instance, they were given a scenario of a traffic accident and how they could help victims.

For subsequent sessions, other groups including private security officers and public transport workers will undergo the training for which Temasek Foundation has provided a grant of about $200,000.

While SRC has been providing public psychological first aid training since 2016, the training for SGSecure Responders is tailored with relevant SGSecure content and specific scenarios.

There are currently more than 135,000 SGSecure Responders.

Speaking at the programme’s launch, SRC council member Steve Lee said psychological first aid is an important component of community resilience.

He said there was a twofold increase in enrolment for psychological first aid courses during the Covid-19 pandemic, which had exacerbated mental stress in the community, including among the isolated elderly, lower-income households and youth.

Minister of State for Home Affairs Sun Xueling, who was at the launch, noted that psychological first aid is widely considered by specialists to be a comprehensive and realistic, but non-intrusive strategy in dealing with major trauma.

She said in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013, one recommendation was the establishment of walk-in disaster mental health clinics for the public, survivors and their families.

She said the use of psychological first aid had helped to connect survivors with necessary resources, including medical care, legal services and mental health support.

“Hence, the more people trained in psychological first aid, the stronger the community psychosocial support in peacetime emergencies or crises,” she added.

Mr Kua Soon Khe, 70, chief executive of the Singapore Buddhist Federation, was at Saturday’s session.

He said: “For religious organisations, we are well immersed in the community network. In times of a crisis, if we are prepared, we can better help victims.”

Little things mean a lot: 

The world’s microbiome under threat

By Kurt Cobb, originally published by Resource Insights

May 7, 2023

Among the most visible species threatened with extinction are leopards, tigers, elephants, orangutans, gorillas and rhinoceroses. What may be of even greater consequence, however, are the millions of species we cannot see, the microbiome of the Earth which is essential to the life of plants and animals worldwide. As the Sixth Great Extinction proceeds, our attention ought to turn as much to these tiny creatures as to the ones who make good television commercials because we can relate to them and because they are such large and grand products of evolution on our planet.

In a recent paper, scientists outline the stakes:

Microbes regulate the major biogeochemical cycles on Earth, to the extent that signatures of microbial biogeochemical activity underpin efforts to discover extraterrestrial life. By regulating global nutrient cycles, greenhouse gas exchange, and disease transmission and protection, the Earth microbiome provides an essential life-support system to our planet. A functioning Earth without a functioning microbiome is nearly unimaginable.

Back in 2017 I asked, “Which species can we do without?” I provided a preliminary but not very helpful answer: “The answer so far is the ones that have already gone extinct while we humans have been around on the planet.” But that leaves unanswered which of the remaining species we could do without. I observed:

If you consider that the broader world with which we interact has millions of species of which we are not aware, it becomes apparent that the Sixth Great Extinction is a rather clumsy and thoughtless way to play Russian roulette with human existence. We could easily cause an organism essential to our survival to go extinct without even realizing it.

Humans have complex dependencies on microorganisms—in our bodies, in the soil in which our food and fiber crops grow, and in the sea from which we take food. The very cycles of the Earth are in part governed by these organisms, so it is hard to see how we could get along without them.

But, are their number and dominance so great that we don’t need to worry about their survival? The authors of the paper cited above tell us that there are “6 million to 8 million terrestrial fungi and up to 1 trillion species of prokaryotes [organisms having cells without a nucleus].” (Eukaryotes, by contrast, are organisms having cells with nuclei and include “all animals, plants and fungi.”) Visual Capitalist compares the total weight of various types of life on Earth. The numbers would make you reasonably believe that the dominate form of life on the planet is plants with 450 gigatons (Gt) of total mass (based on carbon content). Bacteria come in at 70 Gt. Fungi weigh 12 Gt. Humans, however, weigh a mere 0.06 Gt in aggregate. How could we be a threat to these other types of life?

Obviously, our total weight is not the problem. It is our ability and willingness to take over vast stretches of habitat and remake them for our purposes—which always leads to a dramatic reduction in the diversity of life within that habitat. The authors of the paper cited above report that:

A century of monitoring shows a remarkable 45% decline in mushroom-forming mycorrhizal fungi across Europe, probably due to land conversion and intense nitrogen pollution. Anecdotal reports of fungal species extinctions around the world are increasingly pervasive but require additional and repeated monitoring efforts. One example includes the link between extensive forest harvesting in Norway and extinctions of key wood-decay fungi. Furthermore, microbes, which can evolve extremely specialized symbiotic networks of interactions with their plant hosts, are threatened by accelerated co-extinction, as their hosts face increasing population declines.

It’s hard to imagine life on Earth without fungi. Plants collaborate with fungi to survive on land. And, without land plants it’s difficult to imagine human society at the scale we see today or at any scale, actually. Even viruses—the vast majority of which are not pathogenic to humans—play an important balancing role that maintains biodiversity in the ecosphere.

It shouldn’t be surprising that “wild” soils contain much richer biodiversity and that farmers are already “transplanting” such wild soils into their fields to take advantage of that biodiversity. Why? Because as the paper authors point out: “Plants growing with wild microbes generally outperform those that are not. Importantly, past work has shown that the effects of natural soil microbiome transplants far outweigh those associated with commercially available soil microbial mixtures.”

They add: “It would be incredibly valuable to develop ways to introduce wild microbial communities without destructive soil excavation.” Disturbing the soil in the ways modern agriculture requires is part of the cause for the loss of soil biodiversity.

Are there other reasons we should prefer natural soil biodiversity? Not surprisingly, the authors offer additional reasons:

[S]ystems with incredibly low ecological and genetic diversity are more susceptible to extreme climate events. This is worrying as these events are becoming increasingly frequent in the face of global climate change. Monoculture systems are likewise more susceptible to pathogens and pests, creating a need for regular and substantial applications of pesticide to remain viable.

The authors further note:

As we erode this biodiversity, we close doors on novel ways to support our managed food and forest landscapes. More profoundly, we lose billions of years of evolutionary insight.

Think of this last statement as an admission that the microbes of the world are much smarter than we are at maintaining and optimizing conditions for life. If we are serious about protecting biodiversity, we should consider starting with the smallest among us.

Image: Collage of Bacteria (3 September 2022). By 148LENIN via Wikimedia Commons. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bacteria_collage.jpg . See that page for list of organisms.

Kurt Cobb

Kurt Cobb is a freelance writer and communications consultant who writes frequently about energy and environment. His work has appeared in The Christian Science Monitor, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique, Oilprice.com, OilVoice, TalkMarkets, Investing.com, Business Insider and many other places. He is the author of an oil-themed novel entitled Prelude and has a widely followed blog called Resource Insights. He is currently a fellow of the Arthur Morgan Institute for Community Solutions.

Palestine present at Roger Waters concert in Paris
Roger Waters played in Paris as part of his 'This Is Not a Drill' tour. During the concert, the phrase 'Palestinian Rights' played a role on the very large screen of the Accor Arena.
May 7, 2023 

As US gets drawn deeper into the Ukraine conflict, it should remember the lessons of the Iraq War

There is no end in sight to the war between Ukraine and Russia – nor Washington’s role in it.

Patrick James, The Conversation

US President Joe Biden. | White House/AFP

Leaked Pentagon papers showed in early April that the United States is allegedly following the inner workings of Russia’s intelligence operations and is also spying on Ukraine, adding a new dimension to the US involvement in the Ukraine war.

While the US has not actually declared war against Russia, the documents show that it continues to support Ukraine with military intelligence as well as money and weapons against the Russian invasion.

There is no end in sight to the war between Ukraine and Russia – nor to US involvement. While it is far from the first time that the US became a third party to war, this scenario brings the Iraq War, in particular, to mind.

I am a scholar of international relations and an expert on international conflicts. A comparison with the Iraq War, I believe, offers a useful way to look at the case of Ukraine.

The Iraq and Ukraine wars have notable differences from a US foreign policy perspective – chiefly, thousands of American soldiers died fighting in Iraq, while the US does not have any ground troops in Ukraine. But assessing the Iraq War, and its long aftermath, can still help articulate concerns about the United States getting involved in intense violence in another faraway place.

Here are three key points to understand.

An image of Saddam Hussein printed on copper, part of Iraqi valuables seized by law enforcement agents, at the Iraqi Cultural Center in Washington in 2011. Credit: Reuters

1. Intervention doesn’t guarantee success

Around the time former President George W Bush announced the US would invade Iraq in 2003, Osama bin Laden, the wealthy Saudi Arabian Islamist who orchestrated the September 11, 2001, attacks, remained at large. While not obviously connected, the fact that bin Laden continued to evade the US contributed to a general sense of anger at hostile regimes. In particular, Saddam Hussein defied the US and its allies.

The Iraqi dictator continued to evade inspections by the United Nations watchdog group the International Atomic Energy Agency, giving the impression that he had weapons of mass destruction. This proved maddening to the US and its allies as the cat and mouse game dragged on.

Bush reportedly had intense concerns about whether Saddam could use alleged weapons of mass destruction to attack the US, causing even more harm than 9/11 did.

A US-led coalition of countries that included the United Kingdom and Australia invaded Iraq in March 2003. The “coalition of the willing”, as it became known, won a quick victory and toppled Saddam’s regime.

Bush initially enjoyed a spike in public support immediately after the invasion, but his polls shortly after experienced a downward trajectory as the war dragged on.

However, the US showed very little understanding of the politics, society and other important aspects of the country that it had taken the lead in occupying and then trying to rebuild.

Many decisions, most notably disbanding of the Iraqi Army in May 2003, revealed poor judgment and even outright ignorance because, with the sudden removal of Iraqi security forces, intense civil disorder ensued.

Disbanding the army caused insurgent militant forces to come out into the open. The fighting intensified among different Iraqi groups and escalated into a civil war, which ended in 2017.

Today, Iraq continues to be politically unstable and is not any closer to becoming a democracy than it was before the invasion.

2. Personal vendettas cannot justify a war

During his 24-year regime, Saddam lived an extravagant lifestyle coupled with oppression of civilians and political opponents. He engaged in genocide of Kurdish people in Iraq. Saddam was finally executed by his own people in 2006, after US forces captured him.

Putin is equally notorious and even more dangerous. He has a long track record of violent oppression against his people and has benefited from leading one of the world’s most corrupt governments.

He also actually possesses weapons of mass destruction and has threatened multiple times to use them on foreign countries. Saddam and Putin have also both been the direct targets of US political leaders, who displayed a fixation on toppling these foreign adversaries, which was evident long before the US actually became involved in the Iraq and Ukraine wars.

The United States’ support for Ukraine is understandable because that country is fighting a defensive war with horrific civilian casualties. Backing Ukraine also makes sense from the standpoint of US national security – it helps push back against an expansionist Russia that increasingly is aligned with China.

At the same time, I believe that it is important to keep US involvement in this war within limits that reflect national interests.

Demonstrators rally in front of the US Capitol calling for an end to the war in Iraq, in Washington in 2007. Credit: Reuters.

3. It can divide the country

The Iraq War resulted in a rise in intense partisanship in the US over foreign policy. In addition, recent opinion polls about the Iraq War show that most Americans do not think that the invasion made the US any safer.
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Now, the U.S. faces rising public skepticism about getting involved in the Ukraine war, another expensive overseas commitment.

Polls released in January 2023 show that the percentage of Americans who think the US is providing too much aid to Ukraine has grown in recent months. About 26% of American adults said in late 2022 that the U.S. is giving too much to the Ukraine war, according to Pew Research Group. But three-fourths of those polled still supported the U.S. engagement.

The average American knows little to nothing about Iraq or Ukraine. Patience obviously can grow thin when US.support for foreign wars becomes ever more expensive and the threat of retaliation, even by way of tactical nuclear weapons, remains in the realm of possibility. Aid to Ukraine is likely to become embroiled in the rapidly escalating conflict in Washington over the debt ceiling.

On the flip side, if the US does not offer sufficient support for Ukraine to fend of Russian attacks and maintain its independence, adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran may feel encouraged to be aggressive in other places.

I believe that the comparison between the wars in Iraq and Ukraine makes it clear that US leadership should clearly identify the underlying goals of its national security to the American public while determining the amount and type of support that it will give to Ukraine.

While many people believe that Ukraine deserves support against Russian aggression, current policy should not ignore past experience, and the Iraq War tells a cautionary tale.

Patrick James is Dornsife Dean’s Professor of International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.

This article was first published on The Conversation.