Fact check: Did Alberta really lose 183,000 jobs under Rachel Notley?

Story by CBC/Radio-Canada • May 13, 2023

NDP Leader Rachel Notley’s handling of the economy, specifically jobs, is the UCP’s main attack point.© Radio-Canada

In a February advertisement, the United Conservative Party claims Rachel Notley's NDP government lost 183,000 jobs during its four years in government. Is it true?

"[Rachel Notley] wants you to forget that her NDP drove us into massive debt and lost 183,000 jobs," says the video posted to YouTube by the UCP on Feb. 7

No, it's not true.

According to the labour market data from Statistics Canada, when the NDP came into power in May 2015, there were 2,274,500 Albertans employed. Four years later in April 2019, there were 2,316,900 — a net increase of 42,400 jobs.

Employment in Alberta under the NDP

Even the trend-cycle that smooths monthly variations in statistics and irregularities shows an increase in the number of employed people in Alberta from the beginning and end of the New Democrats' term.

According to Trevor Tombe, a professor of economics at the University of Calgary, another way to calculate employment is based on Statistics Canada's Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours.

This report accounts only for salaried positions, and therefore could exclude those who are self-employed. And if a person has two jobs, they're counted as two people.

According to this survey, Alberta counted 2,058,539 salaried workers in May 2015, and 2,032,528 four years later — a loss of roughly 26,000 jobs. That's a significant difference from the 183,000 job losses highlighted by the UCP's ad.

Difficult economic times

However, Alberta's four years of Rachel Notley weren't all sunshine and roses from an economic standpoint, either. During her first 14 months as premier, close to 85,000 jobs were lost, according to Statistics Canada

Related video: Here's the Alberta leader's debate in 5 minutes (cbc.ca)

Duration 4:57  View on Watch

Global News Decision Alberta: Morning talk with NDP Leader Rachel Notley

7:51

cbc.ca  Danielle Smith and Rachel Notley face off in Alberta leaders debate

2:41

The Canadian Press   UCP’s Smith and NDP Alberta’s Notley go head-to-head in provincial election debate

2:11

The main reason can be found in the fall of oil prices, which began in the second half of 2014, explains Alberta Central economist Charles St-Arnaud. After peaking at over $105 US, a barrel of oil fell to $30 US at the start of 2016.

Numerous energy companies made layoffs. The unemployment rate reached 8.9 per cent in July 2016.

"It doesn't matter which party formed the government. Considering the shock we had with the decline in oil prices, we would have had a recession anyway," said St-Arnaud. "The economy contracted by 3.5 per cent in both 2015 and 2016, so a decent decline in economic activity and of course led to big job losses."

Politicians had even less influence because the impact came from outside the province, he added.

Data from Statistics Canada shows the number of people employed in Alberta gradually increased after the mid-year low in 2016. The rest of the economy adapted to the new reality of a low oil price, St-Arnaud said.

Better increases under the United Conservatives

Employment rates were much stronger during the four years of the UCP, despite the pandemic's impact on the labour market.

Employment in Alberta under the UCP

According to data from Statistics Canada, when Jason Kenney came into power, roughly 2,307,000 Albertans were employed. In April, under Danielle Smith, there were roughly 2,443,100 — an increase of about 136,000 jobs in four years.

St-Arnaud still doesn't believe that the two economic crises are comparable.

He said the drop in oil prices was a major economic moment that dramatically changed the economy by impacting projected investments in the sector, whereas the pandemic had a different, more temporary impact.

"The dynamic of the economic shock is completely different," he said. "It took a long time before oil prices recovered. We started to see a bit more health in the oil and gas sector starting [around] 2019. It started to be a bit more normal, but still not what we saw in 2013 or 2014 in those big boom years."

St-Arnaud explained that once pandemic restrictions were lifted, the economy was able to rebound and people got back to work. He noted that another major factor was the federal government's increased stimulus for post-pandemic economic recovery.

Countrywide, however, the province is doing well.

"We've had a lot of workers that came to Alberta, but the economy was strong enough, there were enough jobs to absorb those new arrivals," St-Arnaud said.

The UCP has not responded to requests for the sources of the numbers in the advertisement.

This story was originally published May 1, 2023, in French.

Fact Check: Did Rachel Notley raise taxes 97 times?

Yes, it's correct, but that number is misleading, says economics professor

Tiphanie Roquette · CBC News · 

Posted:  May 11, 2023

The United Conservative Party accuses Rachel Notley of increasing taxes and fees 97 times during her four years as Alberta’s premier. (United Conservative Party/YouTube)

Alberta UCP Leader Danielle Smith mentions in every speech that NDP Leader Rachel Notley as premier increased fees and taxes 97 times between 2015 and 2019.

Is this true?

Yes, it's correct, but that number is misleading.

"[Rachel Notley] wants you to forget that her government increased taxes 97 times. Ninety-seven times," we hear in a February 2023 YouTube video advertisement from the UCP.

But Danielle Smith made a clarification in her speeches this week.

"Rachel Notley increased taxes and fees 97 times when she was premier. Ninety-seven times," she said at her campaign launch.

The addition of the word "fees" is important — in the UCP's detailed list, taxes aren't the only increase accounted for.

In reality, 74 of the 97 elements listed are fee increases, such as the cost of filing court documents, or provincial museum ticket prices.

Alberta's 2018 provincial budget also, for example, included cost increases for Jubilee Auditorium stage rental.

The UCP listed increases for each rental category, accounting for 13 increases. Similarly, the increase in museum admission fees is distinguished by each category of entry and their corresponding ticket prices.

The UCP's list also includes five fines for traffic offences such as speeding.

Fees vs. taxes

Lindsay Tedds, associate professor of economics at the University of Calgary, says it's misleading to amalgamate taxes and fees in the same list because they don't affect public finances and personal finances in the same way.

Taxes such as personal income tax contribute to the general revenue of the province, whereas fees have more of a direct connection between users and goods or services.

"The only way you can avoid taxes is to engage in illegal tax evasion behaviour. With everything else, you can change your behaviour. You can not go camping as much, you don't have to go to the museum. Those all have consequences, but it's all about aligning the user with with the cost," she said.

Tedds adds that a large portion of the fees within the list increase regularly because of inflation.

In the 2018 provincial budget, for example, the revenue from fees and permits was roughly $3.9 million, whereas the revenue from taxes was estimated at close to $23 million.

The NDP government did raise taxes during its term. Corporate income tax increased from 10 to 12 per cent during Notley's governance.

Notley's government also created new tax brackets for income over $125,000 and increased taxation of each of the four new brackets.

While Jason Kenney's United Conservative government reversed the first hike, reducing corporate tax to eight per cent, it never reversed the change for individuals.

144 tax hikes for the UCP?

The New Democrats did the same analysis of the United Conservative budgets.

The NDP lists 144 increases in taxes, fees and fines in the provincial budgets from 2019 to 2023.

This list is just as misleading, even if the NDP assures that it invoked the same methods as the UCP.

In addition to fee increases, the NDP's list also counted the tax credits created by the NDP government that their United Conservative successor eliminated.

Another example: the UCP allowed school boards to charge parents for transportation and supplies, something the NDP had waived during its years in government.

The New Democrats therefore counted this measure as a part of its accounting of fee increases over the past four years.

"All governments play this game. Election season is a silly season," said Tedds.


This story was originally published May 3 in French.

Translated from French by Lily Dupuis

Rachel Notley is Alberta’s real progressive conservative

'I disagree with him completely': Rachel Notley says of Jagmeet Singh's oilsands stance

08:10
CTV QP: Notley against cutting oilsands production

Spencer Van Dyk
CTV News Parliamentary Bureau 

Writer, Producer
Updated May 13, 2023 6:12 p.m. MDT

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley says she completely disagrees with federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s stance on oil and gas industry subsidies, because she thinks the economy driving sector needs investment to stay competitive internationally and find innovative ways to reduce emissions.

Notley told CTV’s Question Period host Vassy Kapelos, in an interview airing Sunday, she thinks the oil and gas sector needs to be “at the table” in conversations about how to reduce carbon emissions.

She added that while the oil and gas industry saw record profits last year, she still believes it needs investment, especially if Canada is going to compete with the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which offers billions of dollars in energy incentives south of the border.

Meanwhile Singh, Notley’s federal counterpart, has long been calling on the Liberal government to “stop giving billions of dollars of public money to oil and gas companies.”

The oil and gas sector made record profits last year — reaching more than $34 billion — and Singh has said he wants to see the Liberals cancel all subsidies to the industry, including the Carbon Capture Tax Credit.

Notley, however, said she “disagree(s) with him completely on this issue.”

She said while oil and gas profits “are spectacular right now,” the sector also “suffered significant losses during (the pandemic),” and there’s a pressing need to stay competitive with the Inflation Reduction Act.

“So there are a lot of different factors that play at it,” she said. “But I do disagree with this idea that there should be no partnerships with oil and gas when we are in a position of it playing still such an important role in our economy.”

She added she disagrees with “this idea that we can just simply walk away from something that contributes such a large amount to our economy, not just in Alberta, but across Canada, on a point of principle.”

With little more than two weeks until Albertans head to the polls, both Notley and UCP Leader Danielle Smith have also pushed back against the federal government’s emissions reduction targets.

Last March, the federal government proposed targets to reduce overall emissions to 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, with the oil and gas sector having the goal of cutting emissions by 42 per cent in the next seven years.

Notley has called the targets “unrealistic.”

She said while an emissions cap is “part of the tools necessary” to achieving the goals of reducing emissions, ensuring products are sustainable, and expanding access to international markets, she doesn’t believe the federal government’s target is reasonable.

“But to do that, it has to be practical and it has to be achievable,” Notley said. “Aspirational goals can sometimes serve to be less effective than no goals, although I'm not in favor of either of those things.”

“What I want to see is practical goals, and then a very practical plan,” she also said, adding she wants to see an emissions reduction, not a production reduction.

“The emissions output must be cut, but we don't want to see actual production cuts as an effort to achieve emissions reduction,” she said. “So let's be very clear: we're not going to be endorsing production cuts. We think that we can reach emissions reductions through other means.”

SEE

THE ALBERTA NDP THE PARTY OF OIL WORKERS

THE COINCIDENTAL BIRTH OF THE NEW DEMOCRATS 

AND THE OIL INDUSTRY IN ALBERTA

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for OIL NDP 

Rachel Notley is Alberta’s real progressive conservative
By Max Fawcett | Opinion, Politics | May 4th 2023

Rachel Notley's embrace of Alberta's oil and gas industry is all part of her value proposition to former Progressive Conservative voters. 

Photo via Rachel Notley / Twitter

Peter Lougheed was Alberta’s 10th premier, the creator of its Heritage Savings Trust Fund, and the architect of a four-decade political dynasty that would see his Alberta Progressive Conservatives win 12 consecutive elections, most of them in a walk. He went to war with Pierre Trudeau, helped defeat the National Energy Program, and fought effectively for Alberta’s place in Confederation. And if he was alive today, he’d probably be voting for Rachel Notley’s NDP.

Just ask Danielle Smith — yes, that Danielle Smith — who wrote back in 2019 that “Notley is, without question, the inheritor of the Lougheed tradition. That’s not to say he was a full-on socialist, but Notley isn’t either. I think most Albertans have been shocked to see how pragmatic she has governed, particularly as it concerns natural resources.”

Smith would probably like to take back that endorsement, but Notley’s NDP continues to attract the support of prominent former members of Lougheed’s government, from MLAs like Allan Warrack and Ron Ghitter to Lougheed’s chief of staff (and later federal MP) Lee Richardson.

Notley’s appeal to former Progressive Conservatives is a product of her party’s deliberate shift to the political centre, along with her Lougheed-esque stewardship of Alberta’s resources. The federal purchase and construction of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project, which will be completed sometime this year and in service by the first quarter of 2024, speaks to the success of those efforts.

But Notley’s appeal among more progressive conservatives is also a reflection of just how toxic Smith’s brand of conservatism is to many otherwise conservative Albertans. Her recent admission that she looks to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as role models for Alberta says everything about her politics, and how prominently the COVID-19 pandemic still figures in them.

Before he was known for banning books and getting sued by Disney, DeSantis made his name in Republican circles by making Florida the most COVID-friendly state in the union. Noem made her own bid for that title back in 2021, when she proclaimed: “If @joebiden illegally mandates vaccines, I will take every action available under the law to protect South Dakotans from the federal government.”

If Smith had been in power during the pandemic, it’s easy to imagine her saying something similar. This sort of live-and-let-die attitude is at odds with the more compassionate (and informed) brand of conservatism that Lougheed is remembered for.

But as Jared Wesley and Ken Boessenkool argued in a piece for The Line, Smith is really a conservative in name only. “Smith is not a temperamental conservative. Indeed, she is rarely an ideological conservative. Instead, her politics amount to libertarian-laced populism, directly opposed to the sort of principled, incrementalist politics Albertans have appreciated from conservative governments in the past.”

Smith is certainly no fiscal conservative, although that’s a much rarer breed than most Albertans have been led to believe. After passing the biggest spending budget in Alberta history, Smith opened the campaign by offering up a 20 per cent tax cut on incomes up to $60,000 that would cost the Treasury as much as $760 per adult. In order to pay for it, Smith plans to rely on a continuation of the recent gusher in oil and gas royalties — one that may already be in the process of evaporating, as oil prices crashed below $70 a barrel this week.

And when it comes to law and order, Smith has a track record of siding with the people trying to upend it. There’s her fawning phone call with far-right preacher (and Coutts blockade supporter) Artur Pawlowski, who was found guilty of mischief and breaching his bail conditions on Tuesday. And as Press Progress reported that same day, her support for the blockade apparently ran even deeper than that. In a February 2022 livestream with the Western Standard, Smith says, “We want to see it win in Coutts.”

The Coutts blockade, remember, included a group of heavily armed men making threats against law enforcement that included conspiracy to commit murder. But even before those charges were laid, it was clear the blockaders were interfering with the movement of goods and people across the border. That doesn’t seem to have bothered Smith, though. “This whole phrase of ‘peace, order and good government’, I think it’s become a shorthand to the federal government can do whatever the heck it wants and we just have to be peaceful and orderly about it,” Smith said.

Smith, then, is not any kind of conservative that Peter Lougheed would identify with. If anything, she and the “Take Back Alberta” group that helped elect her as party leader have more in common with the Alberta Social Credit party that Lougheed defeated in 1971. The real question for conservatives in this election is whether they still identify with Peter Lougheed or not. If enough of them do, Notley will make history as the first former premier to get returned to power — and join Lougheed as one of the most important political leaders in Alberta history.

This column is featured in my new newsletter, which you can get delivered to your inbox once a week. If you want to stay up to date on my signature, no-nonsense opinion writing, subscribe here

Who's the true conservative in Alberta's provincial election? The answer is more complicated than you might think — and it holds the key to victory for Rachel Notley. @maxfawcett writes for @NatObserver

May 4th 2023

Max Fawcett
Lead Columnist, Podcast Host
@maxfawcett

Calgary·Analysis

No, Jagmeet Singh isn't Rachel Notley's boss. But their 'union' remains rivals' target

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As UCP ratchets up scrutiny, Alberta NDP less reliant on 

federal or labour support

Jason Markusoff · CBC News · Posted: May 14, 2023 

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley lays out her jobs plan at a campaign event. Don't expect to see federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh campaign in Alberta with her, a reality that perfectly suits Notley's team. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

There was a time, a rather long time, when the Alberta NDP was little more than the labour unions' partisan mouthpiece, and the largely inconsequential cousins of the federal New Democrats.

With a more diverse — read: less union-centric — candidate roster and political positions that shuck much of what Jagmeet Singh's party stands for, the provincial NDP has arguably never been as independent from influence of its longstanding organizational partners as it is now.

And yet never before has the Alberta NDP faced such a torrent of rival accusations it's in thrall with organized labour, and had its relationship with the federal branch depicted as not cousin-cousin, but parent-child or master-slave.

Danielle Smith declares Singh is Rachel Notley's "boss" nearly every chance she gets: "I question whether she works for Albertans or whether she works for her federal leader," the UCP leader said at one campaign event. 

Marks against them

The jabs are rooted in some long-standing truths and technicalities. The Alberta NDP constitution does declare the party a branch of the Canadian party, and membership in one equals membership in the other.

And unions and the Alberta Federation of Labour have roles specified in the party's structure. Plus, there's the inescapable reality that Notley's husband Lou Arab worked with the Alberta division of the Canadian Union of Public Employees throughout her premiership, and continues to.

But these have been structural realities of the provincial NDP for decades. Ties with unions and the federal party have always come with benefits on the organizational and support side, along with headaches when big labour or Ottawa drags down the provincial party's reputation.

What's new in 2023 is the UCP leader's public focus on it. Jason Kenney and other past  Alberta conservatives loved to pin this or that left-of-Alberta federal remark on Notley's party — but the "boss" stuff is new.

Theoretically, yes, the constitutional structure of the Alberta NDP and other provincial counterparts holds that the federal branch is supreme. But there is no modern history of Singh or past leaders wielding the club to enforce obedience on a disagreeable faction of this pan-Canadian orange network.

Orange rebellion

More than four decades ago, Saskatchewan NDP premier Allan Blakeney clashed with then-federal leader Ed Broadbent. Ottawa abided by restiveness in the colonies.

The more recent examples of a Provincial Orange freely standing up to Big Orange belong to Notley. After fighting for the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, she openly slammed Singh's opposition to the project, saying that he was thumbing his nose at the working people who relied on the energy economy. 

Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh at a 2021 federal election event in Edmonton. The party has two seats in Alberta's capital, but rivals the Trudeau Liberals for popularity in the rest of the province (and that's no sign of strength). (Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press)

"To forget that and to throw them under the bus as collateral damage in pursuit of some other high level policy objective is a recipe for failure and it's also very elitist," she told the Edmonton Journal in 2018.

Notley swiped at Singh again Sunday on CTV's Question Period. She said she completely disagrees with the federal leader on ending support for oil and gas companies, and "this idea that we can just simply walk away from something that contributes such a large amount to our economy, not just in Alberta, but across Canada, on a point of principle."

There aren't too many disses outside of the energy file. Dismissiveness, more so.

Earlier this month, Notley said she last spoke with Singh six to 12 months ago — a long time to go without talking to one's supposed boss — and cannot remember what they spoke about. "Whether I am talking to the leader of the federal NDP, whether I am advocating in Ottawa, whether I am talking to New Democrats in B.C., Albertans know that I have always been quite ready to do whatever is necessary to stand up for the best interests of Albertans," she told reporters.

During elections, there's a perennial air drop of activists from the federal and other provincial NDP wings to lend campaign support — including Nathan Rotman, flown in from Ontario to be Notley's campaign manager. (Similarly, federal Conservative veteran Steve Outhouse temporarily moved from Ottawa to run Smith's campaign.)

• AUDIO
  Small towns with big city problems

Sure, there's plenty of points of commonality, the shared crusades in Alberta and Ottawa for a higher minimum wage and lower child-care fees. But look up and down Singh's support agreement with the Liberals and Justin Trudeau, and there's not a ton that checks both sides' boxes.

The provincial NDP isn't gung-ho on many of the federal party's priorities in its agreement with Trudeau, like pharma-care and dental care or an end to fossil-fuel subsidies. And when the two party factions speak of just transition alongside climate action, they seem to make different points.

In fact, the biggest bit of federal platform borrowing by Notley wasn't from Singh. Her promise to give families a tax credit for children's sports or arts activities was a page ripped from those reliable buddies, the Stephen Harper Conservatives.

Protesters disrupted a United Conservative Party media availability held on Thursday. Conservatives eagerly identified one participant as a past federal NDP candidate. (CBC News)

But it's little surprise that Smith's team spotted a former federal NDP candidate in the disruptive protest at a UCP event and branded him a Notleyite. Despite intra-party differences, federal candidates still run provincially and vice versa, including candidates in this race in Maskwacis, Chestermere and Calgary–North East.

It used to be more routine for the Alberta NDP's candidate roster to be filled with local union stewards or labour leaders, especially to fill slates in low-hope ridings. Many surprise 2015 election winners came from those ranks.

But with the party's hopes ascendent in 2023, they've gotten more candidate recruits from outside their labour base. Even if Gil McGowan's AFL and major unions remain active players within the party, the diversified influences mean those are less likely to be the only voices Notley and her brain trust hear.

Again, Smith has raised concerns over long-standing relationships, including Notley's husband and the AFL's former role within her rival's party. "We should be very, very concerned about the influence on the NDP, not only of the unions that are embedded in their decision making process and their delegate status and choose their leader," Smith said recently, when deflecting a question about the unclear degrees of influence the group Take Back Alberta has on her party.

The Alberta NDP had to wean itself off of its heavy reliance on union donations eight years ago when Notley banned union and corporate contributions to parties. But both types of entities retained their power to spend heavily on elections with the third-party advertiser system.

Labour pains

Controversial reforms that Kenney passed have restrained the way union groups can participate in elections, but the UCP has lately raised alarms about the extent to which big labour is assisting Notley. Smith's party wants Elections Alberta to use those Kenney reforms as a cudgel against the AFL and unions, alleging they're breaking the new rules.

McGowan and others insist they're following the law, even if he brands what United Conservatives want to do with it as unconstitutional. "They're indignant that we found a way to legally exercise our free speech rights, despite their best efforts to shut us up and shut us down," the AFL leader said in a statement this week.

• ANALYSIS
  Donations from wealthy individuals more important under new Alberta election ad rules

There are no doubt moments when some in Notley's inner circle wish their union affiliates and federal cousins would pipe down, and not occasionally force Alberta NDP to have to distance themselves from erstwhile allies.

But as long as Notley's party resists any formal dissolving of the ties that bind them to organized labour and every other politician in Canada attached to the NDP, it will have to take the good and bad of this solidarity forever.

Corrections

• An earlier version of this analysis incorrectly stated that Lou Arab, the husband of Rachel Notley, has an executive role with a union group.
  May 15, 2023 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jason Markusoff

Producer and writer

Jason Markusoff analyzes what's happening — and what isn't happening, but probably should be — in Calgary and sometimes farther afield. He's written in Alberta for nearly two decades with Maclean's magazine, the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal. He appears regularly on Power and Politics' Power Panel and various other CBC current affairs shows. Reach him at jason.markusoff@cbc.ca

Trudeau’s oil and gas policies too harsh for 

Rachel Notley

Centre-left contender looking to reclaim power as premier of Alberta in upcoming election

Bloomberg News
Brian Platt and Robert Tuttle

Last updated May 11, 2012

Rachel Notley is running to be premier of Alberta again. The province goes to the polls on May 29. PHOTO BY BEN NELMS/BLOOMBERG
Article content

The woman who’s looking to reclaim power in Canada’s energy heartland is pushing back against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s targets for cleaning up the oil and gas industry.

Rachel Notley, who was the centre-left premier of Alberta from 2015 to 2019 and is running for the job again, said Trudeau’s plan for cutting the sector’s emissions by more than 40 per cent by the end of the decade is too onerous. Her stance mirrors that of the country’s largest crude producers — and it’s also one that may be a political necessity as her New Democratic Party battles for votes in a province where oil is king and the prime minister is deeply unpopular.

“I don’t believe that the current drafted emissions caps that we’ve seen are realistic,” Notley said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “If we don’t get down to work and come up with a more practical cap, we are not going to be successful in mapping out a process that will get us there.

Trudeau’s government has promised to limit emissions in the energy sector to ensure Canada meets its climate targets, but hasn’t yet chosen a mechanism for doing so. His government published a plan last year that modelled a 42 per cent cut in oil and gas sector emissions by 2030, which oil executives have said isn’t possible without slashing output. More draft regulations are expected to be released within weeks.

Relations between the federal government and Alberta — whose nearly four million barrels of daily oil output makes Canada the world’s fourth-largest crude producer — are a perennial flashpoint in local politics. Notley’s 2015 victory was a rare win in a traditionally conservative province. She’s looking to defeat the United Conservative Party, currently led by Danielle Smith, in an election set for May 29.

Although Notley is generally much more aligned with Trudeau’s environmental agenda than Smith, she said the federal government is trying to move too fast on cutting oil-sector emissions. The vast majority of these emissions in Canada come from Alberta’s oilsands, which is among the world’s most carbon-intensive crude sources.

Race for premier is tight

“Using aspirational numbers to drive practical policy is not a recipe for success,” Notley said. “The key is making sure that what we put in place is practical and achievable, and it doesn’t become so oppressive that we find ourselves shutting in production.”

Notley said she doesn’t oppose a cap in principle, but she declined to provide her own emissions target, saying she’d consult with experts and industry on the matter.

“We’re not going to be unambitious,” she said. “But we are going to be realistic, and we’re going to make sure that the industry is able to continue to flourish.”

Polls suggest the race between Notley and Smith is very tight. A recent Leger survey found the New Democrats had a two-point lead over the United Conservatives, while another poll by Ipsos found Smith’s party was up by four points.

Notley is expected to sweep much of Alberta’s capital city of Edmonton, while Smith is dominant in the smaller population centres and rural areas. The election will likely come down to who wins the most districts in Calgary — where many of Canada’s energy companies are headquartered.

Notley argued that in the bigger picture, Canada’s environmental policy needs input from Alberta, and that has been prevented by the hostility between Smith’s United Conservatives and Trudeau’s Liberal Party.

“Both Alberta and Canada do best when energy policy is crafted, quite frankly, by Alberta,” she said. “So we want to be at the table, we want to be driving the conversation, and we want to be coming up with solutions that ultimately drive investment and grow our markets.”

Another of Trudeau’s signature environmental policies is a carbon tax on consumer fuels, which kicks in if a province doesn’t have an equivalent carbon price of its own. Notley said she would leave that as a federal tax, instead of replacing it with a made-in-Alberta version.

‘More money’ from Ottawa

To help push the oil sector to decarbonize, Trudeau has also introduced tax credits to defray the capital costs of building carbon capture systems. The credits are worth up to $12.4 billion over the next 10 years, federal officials estimate.

Even more public money for carbon capture might be necessary to compete with the lucrative production tax credits in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, Notley said. She declined to say if she would commit the provincial government to providing the funds.

“It really is a matter still for negotiations,” she said. “My first goal will be to get more money out of the federal government.”

Yet another federal policy that’s been the source of controversy in Alberta is an impending requirement that electricity grids be made net-zero emissions by 2035.


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Notley said Alberta can achieve the milestone at a reasonable cost if she’s elected premier and that trillions of dollars of global investment in renewable energy projects are coming over the next decade.

“It would be utterly ridiculous for Alberta to not be at the table trying to attract some of that,” she said. “So that is going to require some smart government policy, that’s going to require some incentives.”

Bloomberg.com

SMITH UCP ANTI LGBTQ RIGHTS
UCP Leader Danielle Smith says time to 'depoliticize' LGBTQ issues during debate

United Conservative Party Leader Danielle Smith makes an election campaign announcement in Calgary, Alta., Thursday, May 11, 2023. Albertans go to the polls on May 29

. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

Colette Derworiz
The Canadian Press
Published May 18, 2023

MEDICINE HAT, ALTA. -

United Conservative Leader Danielle Smith said it's time to depoliticize LGBTQ rights on the same day her party came under fire for a candidate's comments on transgender children.

She faced off Wednesday night in a candidates debate against the NDP's Gwendoline Dirk and Alberta Party Leader Barry Morishita, both of whom are running against her in the southeastern constituency of Brooks-Medicine Hat. Follow full election coverage on Alberta Votes 2023

It was her second debate as a candidate this week in the lead up to Thursday night's leadership debate in Edmonto

Earlier in the day, the UCP candidate for Lacombe-Ponoka apologized for comparing transgender children in schools to having feces in food.

“If elected as an MLA, I will seek advice and counsel on how to best communicate my views and discuss these issues meaningfully moving forward,” Jennifer Johnson said in a statement after an audio recording of the remarks surfaced.

Candidates at the debate in Medicine Hat were asked by an audience member how they would ensure the protection of LGBTQ children and adults.

Dirk, who was a teacher, said: “Every single human being is valuable and deserves to be protected - period” to applause from the crowd.

Smith then added that she doesn't like the way the issues have been polarized.

“There's a lot of young kids who are struggling with their identity and their sexuality who need the adults to be supportive of them as they work their way through that journey,” she told the crowd of about 250 people, a few of whom groaned when the question was asked.

“We have to depoliticize these issues. These issues are very personal family issues and every family has a loved one that they support, every single one of us have family members who are struggling with gender identity or coming to terms with their sexuality and we need to give 100 per cent support to them and we need to depoliticize this.”

Morishita said he couldn't agree more.

“Now we have to be leaders, we have to be leaders in how we conduct ourselves,” he said. “We have to be leaders in our governments … that we reflect those views that every life does matter, that there are people in there who need to be supportive.”

Other topics during the two-hour debate included the corporate tax rate, small business support, health care and education.

Smith and Dirk stuck closely to their parties' talking points as they went back and forth on each issue, while Morishita tried to present himself as an alternative to the UCP or the NDP.

“I think they are making a great argument for why you need to elect the Alberta Party,” he said to laughter from the crowd. “Lurching back and forth from one policy to another creates a lot of uncertainty.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 17, 2023.

UCP candidate says transphobic comments, claims on pornography in schools were about U.S., not Alberta

Story by Jason Herring • Monday, MAY 15,2023

A United Conservative Party of Alberta's sign is shown in front of the Alberta flag prior to the party's leadership announcement in Calgary on Oct. 6, 2022.© Provided by Calgary Herald

A UCP candidate who claimed in a newly unearthed audio recording that teachers are exposing elementary school children to “hardcore pornography” while transgender children are being “chemically castrated” says those comments were about the United States, not Alberta.

The comments, made by UCP Lacombe-Ponoka candidate Jennifer Johnson at a Sept. 1, 2022 forum, assert without evidence that children have access to pornographic books in schools.

Johnson repeats transphobic rumours that teachers are putting litter boxes in classrooms for use by children who identify as cats, and spreads misinformation about medical intervention for children receiving gender transition treatment.

She proposes eliminating sex education from the public education curriculum.

“(There are) girls saying, ‘I’m not a boy anymore’ when they’re seven years old and transitioning at 14 years old and getting mastectomies, double mastectomies and getting chemically sterilized when they can’t even go to a liquor store and buy a beer,” Johnson said at the forum in Stettler, Alta., hosted by Western Unity Group.

“I’ve been talking about this for a year or two now, specific on what do we do, what are the answers to this? And I think I believe — and this is just my personal opinion — we have got to get rid of sex education from the schools K-12. It’s happening in Florida and other states are starting to come in line. We need biology.”

Johnson elsewhere says critical race theory needs to be removed from the school system, calling the academic framework for analyzing structural racism “toxic and destructive.”

Teachers’ union, gender minority expert condemn comments

In a statement to Postmedia, Johnson said her comments were based on what she saw parents experience in the U.S., and said they don’t reflect Alberta classrooms.

“Our situation in Alberta is quite different. For example: If parents are concerned about content in classrooms there is a process that can be followed with the school division and ultimately could go to the teaching profession commissioner if there was a serious issue,” Johnson said.

“Our party has an immense amount of respect for our teachers and front-line workers that work daily to make every single student feel safe, included, and cared for in our schools.”

Johnson’s comments reflect conspiracy theories which have spread largely through far-right media in the U.S. in recent years, said Dr. Kristopher Wells at MacEwan University.

He said her claims are baseless and have been long-debunked.

“The comments from this candidate are incredibly transphobic, homophobic and racist, and completely based in junk science at best and are part of a dangerous, hate-filled narrative targeting transgender, gender-diverse and 2SLGBTQ+ communities at worst,” said Wells, the Canada Research Chair for the public understanding of sexual and gender minority youth.

“These become very dangerous stereotypes and myths that continue to be propagated.”


UCP Leader Danielle Smith on Monday broadly dismissed the resurfacing of past statements from herself and other candidates, charging the NDP are using those comments to distract from their own record.© Jim Wells

Jason Schilling, the president of the Alberta Teachers’ Association, told Postmedia Monday that Johnson’s comments don’t reflect the reality of schools in the province.

He said it’s “disgusting” to hear the claims from a candidate presumably vetted by their party to run for office.

“These comments aren’t true, and I think we need to call out misinformation that is being put out there by candidates of any party,” Schilling said.

Johnson’s candidate biography describes her as passionate about education, saying she homeschooled all four of her now-adult children. It says she served as “president of school council of one of Alberta’s largest online schools.”

She’s running against NDP candidate Dave Dale, who teaches Grade 6 at a rural school in the riding. The riding was previously held by the UCP’s Ron Orr, who is not seeking re-election.

Comments echo those made from UCP candidate who stepped down

The comments from Johnson parallel those made by UCP candidate Torry Tanner before she stepped down as the UCP candidate in Lethbridge-West earlier this spring.

In a video posted to her social media during the nomination contest for that riding, Tanner claimed teachers are exposing kids to pornography and gender reassignment without parental consent or knowledge. She quit her run for MLA after that video circulated.

Wells described Johnson’s comments as “1,000 times worse” than those made by Tanner, and called on Johnson to either exit the race herself or be removed by the UCP.

“These abhorrent views have no place in Alberta, and I think it’s really important to remember that gender expression and gender identity are protected grounds in our human rights legislation in every part of this country,” Wells said.

Schilling also called for Tanner’s resignation, and added he wants to see UCP Leader Danielle Smith publicly disavow the comments.

Those are the same demands from the NDP, whose candidate Janis Irwin said Johnson must be removed from the UCP’s slate of candidates.

“Jennifer Johnson is spreading conspiracy theories that have no basis in reality. Her comments hurt the 2SLGBTQ+ community and they are harmful, baseless allegations against Alberta teachers,” read a statement from Irwin, the NDP’s candidate in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood.

Johnson and the UCP did not address a question from Postmedia on whether Tanner’s resignation was a precedent which would also apply to her candicacy.

Elsewhere Monday, Smith broadly dismissed the resurfacing of past statements from herself and other candidates, charging the NDP are using those comments to distract from their own record.

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jherring@postmedia.com
Twitter: @jasonfherring

ALBERTA ELECTION

NEW POLL SAME AS OLD POLL

New poll shows tight race between NDP and UCP in Calgary: Angus Reid

Bill Macfarlane
CTV News Calgary Video Journalist
Updated May 17, 2023



A new poll shows a statistical dead heat in Calgary, and the final results are likely to determine which party forms government May 30th.

The poll found 49 per cent of Calgary voters intend to vote for the NDP in the coming election, while 46 per cent planned to vote UCP.

The poll was conducted between May 12 and 16 as a random sample of 1374 Angus Reid Forum members. It is considered accurate plus or minus three percentage points 19 times out of 20.

The close race tends to favour the UCP.

"It really comes down to the NDP has to have the election of its lifetime in Edmonton and the election of its lifetime in Calgary to be in a position to form government," said Shachi Kurt, president of Angus Reid Institute.

"The challenge is that young people do not vote with the same level of turnout as older people," Kurl says. "So we're seeing a big age skew here. Younger people skewing NDP, older people skewing UCP."

TIGHT VICTORY BRINGS CHALLENGES: MAR

Gary Mar is a former PC cabinet minister and held a number of foreign diplomatic posts. He is now president and CEO of Canada West Foundation, a non-partisan think tank.

He says no matter who wins the most seats, a tight victory could bring its own challenges.

"Regardless of who becomes the premier of Alberta, they may face one of the largest oppositions ever in the history of the province," Mar says. "It'll also have a big impact on how you run your caucus."

"If you've got a small majority, four or five people within your own caucus, could say, look, there's something that you're not paying enough attention to. So you gotta pay attention to us. Otherwise, we'll withdraw our support for your majority vote in the legislature on the main agenda that you want to deal with."

The Angus Reid Poll also showed that both leaders have seen a slip in reputation over the past two weeks. It found 41 per cent of people had a worsening view of UCP leader Danielle Smith, while 32 per cent felt that way about NDP leader Rachel Notley.

PERCEPTION BECOMING REALITY

Kurl says public perception of the leaders is becoming baked in and unlikely to shift substantially down the stretch.

Notley perceived as more trustworthy leader, but Smith's UCP closing party support gap: Leger poll

Story by Matthew Black • May 4, 2023

Danielle Smith and Rachel Notley in Calgary at the beginning of the 2023 Alberta provincial election on May 1.© Provided by Edmonton Journal

Albertans perceive NDP leader Rachel Notley to be more honest, transparent, and trustworthy compared to UCP leader Danielle Smith, according to a new Leger poll that also shows the race between the two parties remains tight amid the opening week of the campaign.

When asked who was the most honest and transparent leader, the poll found 37 per cent favoured Notley to 23 per cent who favoured Smith.

Similarly, 38 per cent indicated Notley was the most trustworthy leader compared to 28 for Smith.

Twenty-nine per cent of respondents said they didn’t know in response to both questions.

That 14-point different on questions of honesty and trustworthiness was the shared second-largest gap between the two leaders, according to survey responses, behind Notley’s 18-point lead in response to which leader will work constructively with the federal government.

Smith has faced recent questions about her apparent reversals on prior comments regarding private health care , subsidized child care , and provincial funding for a new NHL arena .

More recently, she has also been asked about a video from last year that resurfaced this week where she cheered on the blockade at the Coutts border crossing as a “win” that could prompt the end of vaccine mandates.

When asked on Corus radio Wednesday about her changing positions, Smith said she was then talking as a political pundit and not as the premier or party leader.

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4:23

“I like to explore ideas. I like to talk to people about a wide range of issues,” she said.

“When you’re in government, it’s different.”

In her first official campaign speech Monday, Notley took aim at Smith’s changes of heart.

“Even if you don’t always agree with me on everything, you know me and what you know is that I say what I mean and I mean what I say,” said Notley.

The Leger poll surveyed 1,000 paid panelists between April 28 to May 1, with the number of respondents split roughly evenly between metro Edmonton, metro Calgary and the rest of Alberta.

Leger states that as the poll was a non-random internet survey, a margin of error is not reported.

The survey also shows that as the campaign approaches the end of its first week, the gap between the two front-running parties has narrowed.

The NDP have a small lead province-wide among decided voters, according to the poll, with 45 per cent support compared to 43 per cent for the UCP.

The data indicates that the NDP’s lead has progressively shrank from four per cent in February and three per cent in March.

Prior election numbers indicate the result of the election may come down to a number of Calgary ridings.

In that region, respondents equally believed Smith or Notley would make the best premier, the poll shows, with each leader receiving support in 28 per cent of replies, while 22 per cent said they didn’t know.

About 11 per cent of decided voters who were surveyed indicated support for a party other than the UCP or NDP, led by the Alberta Party (4 per cent) and the Liberal Party (3 per cent).

The election is scheduled for May 29 with advanced voting open between May 23 and 27.

mblack@postmedia.com
Twitter @ByMatthewBlack

Alberta's NDP and UCP deadlocked as campaign officially begins: poll

Alberta's election campaign trail: A look at Day 2

Tight race for the Alberta election: poll

Melissa Gilligan
CTVNewsCalgary.ca 

Digital Journalist
Updated May 2, 2023

A new poll suggests Alberta's UCP and NDP are locked in a dead heat as the political parties seek support in the upcoming provincial election.

The writ dropped Monday and Albertans head to the polls May 29, though both parties have been unofficially campaigning for weeks. Follow full election coverage on Alberta Votes 2023

A poll released by ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. on Tuesday indicates that if a provincial election were held today, 46 per cent of decided voters would vote for the NDP while another 46 per cent of decided voters would vote for the UCP.


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The poll found 13 per cent of Alberta voters are undecided.

"This province-wide parity between the NDP and UCP has been a feature of our provincial tracking for over six months, with several regional variances also largely locked into place," ThinkHQ noted in a release.

According to the survey, the NDP hold a "sizeable" lead in the Edmonton census metropolitan area (CMA), with 57 per cent support from decided voters compared to 33 per cent supporting the UCP.

A new poll from ThinkHQ suggests Alberta's UCP and NDP are locked in a dead-heat as the pair seek support in the upcoming provincial election. (ThinkHQ)Meanwhile, in the Calgary CMA, decided voters are virtually tied, with 47 per cent saying they'd vote NDP and 46 per cent saying they'd vote UCP.

Outside of the province's two largest cities, support for the UCP outranks the NDP; the survey suggests the UCP have support from at least 20 per cent more decided voters than the NDP in the north, central and south regions of the province.

"We know that the NDP are going to do well in Edmonton, likely even picking up a few seats in the surrounding region," said ThinkHQ president Marc Henry.

"Meanwhile, the UCP are going to win, by large margins, in many areas outside of the two largest cities.”

ThinkHQ noted in its release that Calgary will be the "real battleground" for the election.

"The UCP have a slightly easier path to victory than the NDP, but it’s really going to boil down to about a dozen toss-up and leaning ridings, many of which are in Calgary,” it said.

"This is going to be a very interesting election.”

ThinkHQ also noted "significant" gender and generational gaps in voter support in Alberta, saying women and younger voters showed a "distinct preference" for the NDP, while men and those over the age of 55 offered a similar inclination toward the UCP.

The report from ThinkHQ was compiled through an online survey of 1,529 random adult Albertans through Angus Reid between April 25 and 29. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of this size is +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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