Friday, June 02, 2023

What slowdown?

Canadian  Economy continues to outperform


The Canadian Press

May 31,2023


The Canadian economy grew faster than expected in the first three months of the year and likely expanded again in April, fuelling speculation that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again.

Statistics Canada reported Wednesday real gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 3.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023.

The latest data shows growth beat out the federal agency’s own forecast of 2.5 per cent for the quarter. A preliminary estimate suggests the economy expanded by 0.2 per cent in April after remaining flat in March.

The ongoing resilience in the economy is raising the odds of another rate hike, economists say, as the Bank of Canada heads toward its upcoming interest rate decision next week.

"The run of sturdy data undoubtedly raises the odds that the Bank of Canada needs to go back to the well of rate hikes, and even puts some chance on a move as early as next week's policy decision," BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said in a client note.

But Porter, along with other commercial bank economists say that the central bank may delay the decision to raise rates again until the summer.

"However, given the uncertain backdrop and the possibility that inflation took a big step down in May, the Bank of Canada could opt to remain patient for a bit longer and signal that it's open to hiking in July if the strength persists."

The federal agency says growth in exports and household spending helped spur growth in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, slower inventory accumulations as well as declines in household investment and business investment in machinery and equipment weighed on growth.

The Canadian economy has managed to continue outperforming expectations, despite the Bank of Canada hoping high interest rates would cause a more profound pullback by consumers and businesses.

The household spending figures show spending up on both goods and services in the first three months of the year, after minimal growth in the previous two quarters.

However, Statistics Canada noted that disposable income fell for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021. The federal agency says disposable income declined by one per cent, largely due to the expiration of government measures aimed at helping people cope with inflation.

The central bank paused its rate-hiking cycle earlier this year, keeping its key interest rate at 4.5 per cent — the highest it’s been since 2007.

But the central bank’s governor, Tiff Macklem, has signalled that the bank is still trying to figure out if interest rates are high enough to quash inflation.

The headline inflation rate ticked up slightly to 4.4 per cent in April, remaining well above the central bank’s two per cent target.




Pet retailer Chewy plans Canadian expansion

An online retailer of dog toys, snacks and accessories is expanding into Canada as the company looks to grow its market on waning sales in the United States.

Chewy, among the several tech companies to explode in popularity during the pandemic, announced its first international expansion on Thursday, with plans to enter the Canadian market in the third quarter of 2023.

“We can now leverage our platform to be reliably deployed in Canada, without meaningful incremental investment,” the company wrote in its quarterly memo to shareholders.

“As we assessed which geography would be most suitable for our expansion plans, we honed in on Canada’s large and growing market, where we see a path to achieving market share and profitability akin to our U.S. business.” 

Chewy said it will begin with a focus on the Greater Toronto Area, and gradually expand from there.

The company also announced a new fulfillment centre in Nashville and a partnership with Lemonade Pet Insurance.

Chewy reported a 14.7 per cent sales hike for its first quarter compared to last year, while boosting its annual revenue projection by US$50 million to as high as $11.35 billion. Thursday’s news shot shares up 27 per cent in early trading. 

“The superior value proposition of the Chewy brand continues to resonate, and our team continues to demonstrate operating discipline and high-quality execution,” Chewy CEO Sumit Singh said in a news release.







Inside the making of Redfall, Xbox's latest misfire


Over the years, Microsoft Corp.-owned video-game developer Arkane Studios has cultivated a reputation for releasing games that are beloved by fans yet don’t sell very well, such as Prey and Dishonored 2. By contrast, the studio’s most recent game, Redfall, has achieved something new. It has managed to be, at once, a commercial and critical disappointment. 

Redfall, a multiplayer shooter set on a fictional Massachusetts island full of vampires, debuted on May 2 and was promptly panned. Fans and critics slammed the game’s bugs and shortcomings. On the review aggregation website Metacritic, Redfall has earned a paltry 54 out of 100, ranking it among the year’s worst-reviewed games. 

“It seems there is an issue with every element,” reviewer Tauriq Moosa wrote. “In the end, Redfall feels unpolished, underdone, underwhelming, and uncomfortable.” 

The high-profile dud extends the pain this year for Microsoft’s Xbox division, which has struggled to produce hits and watched as its planned $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc. has gotten tripped up by U.S. and U.K. regulators.

Joost van Dreunen, a video-game analyst and professor, said Redfall’s failure highlights the significant gap between Microsoft’s lofty aspirations and its actual products, which also calls “into question Microsoft’s ability to establish long-term franchises on its own strength, rather than buying them outright.”

Microsoft declined to comment. In a recent interview with the YouTube channel Kinda Funny Games, Xbox boss Phil Spencer said that Redfall’s review scores were “significantly lower than our internal metrics,” suggesting the lackluster debut may have caught the company off guard. 

But to the makers of Redfall, the mediocre reception was no big surprise. The project suffered from unclear direction, frequent attrition and a perennial lack of staff, according to more than a dozen people who worked on the game, speaking anonymously because they were not authorized to discuss it publicly. A spokesperson for Redfall’s publisher, Bethesda Softworks, declined to comment. 

Development of Redfall began in 2018. At the time, ZeniMax — the large, privately held owner of Bethesda Softworks — was looking to sell itself. Behind the scenes, the company was encouraging its studios to develop games that could generate revenue beyond the initial sales, a popular trend dubbed “games as a service,” which was taking off in the late 2010s thanks to lucrative hits like Overwatch and Fortnite.

According to people familiar with the process, ZeniMax was strongly urging developers at its subsidiaries to implement microtransactions —  that is, recurring opportunities within games for players to spend real money, say, outfitting their characters. Although this wasn’t an absolute mandate, several ZeniMax franchises such as Fallout, Doom and Wolfenstein would soon release new versions incorporating online multiplayer and monetization options. 

At Arkane’s headquarters in Austin, Harvey Smith and Ricardo Bare, respected industry veterans, were tapped to serve as co-directors of Redfall. Following the commercially unsuccessful release of its sci-fi shooter Prey a year earlier, leadership across the company wanted to make something more broadly appealing. What eventually emerged was the idea to make a multiplayer game in which users would team up to battle vampires and perhaps pay for occasional cosmetic upgrades.

MULTIPLAYER TENSION

Since its founding in 1999, Arkane had become known for games called “immersive sims,” single-player experiences in which players strive to overcome obstacles in multiple ways, from combat to stealth maneuvers. Yet from the start, Redfall was pitched to staff as a “multiplayer Arkane game,” which some team members said they found confusing. Whether the sort of gameplay that the studio specialized in would be technically possible in a multiplayer environment was an open question. 

Developers under Smith and Bare said the two leads were outwardly excited but as the project progressed failed to provide clear direction. Staff members said that, over time, they grew frustrated with management’s frequently shifting references to other games, such as Far Cry and Borderlands, that left each department with varying ideas of what exactly they were making. Throughout the development, the fundamental tension between single-player and multiplayer design remained unresolved. Smith and Bare did not respond to requests for comment.

Arkane was also perpetually understaffed, said people familiar with its production. The studio’s Austin office employed less than 100 people—  sufficient for a relatively small, single-player game like Prey but not enough to compete with multiplayer behemoths like Fortnite and Destiny, which are developed by teams of hundreds. Even additional support from ZeniMax’s Wisconsin-based Roundhouse Studios and other outsourcing houses couldn’t fill the gaps, they say. 

Morale at Arkane suffered. Veteran workers who weren’t interested in developing a multiplayer game left in droves. By the end of Redfall’s development, roughly 70 per cent of the Austin staff who had worked on Prey would no longer be at the company, according to people familiar as well as a Bloomberg analysis of LinkedIn and Prey’s credits.

Filling vacancies became a challenge. Within the industry, ZeniMax had a reputation for paying lower than average salaries, and convincing some progressive or moderate video game developers to move to Texas could be difficult due to the state’s conservative social policies. Since Redfall wasn’t yet announced, the studio couldn’t describe its details to prospective employees — a predicament that exacerbated the staffing issues, sources familiar with the process said. Arkane wanted to hire recruits with experience on multiplayer shooters, but the people who applied were by and large looking to work on single-player immersive sims.

Meanwhile, on September 21, 2020, Microsoft purchased ZeniMax for US$7.5 billion. It was an ambitious move that gave Xbox control over lucrative franchises such as Doom and Fallout as well as the upcoming Starfield, a role-playing game from the makers of the wildly popular The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim. Although adding Arkane’s portfolio wasn’t the main goal, it was potentially a nice bonus for Microsoft — particularly if Redfall turned into a hit.  

The acquisition gave some staff at Arkane hope that Microsoft might cancel Redfall or, better yet, let them reboot it as a single-player game, according to sources familiar with the production. Instead, Microsoft maintained a hands-off approach. Aside from cancelling a version of Redfall that had been planned for rival Sony Corp.’s PlayStation, Microsoft allowed ZeniMax to continue operating as it had before, with great autonomy. Microsoft’s Spencer would later say in the Kinda Funny interview that Xbox “didn’t do a good job early in engaging Arkane Austin.” 

A POOR COMPROMISE  

Still, expectations remained high. During a 2021 press conference, Xbox positioned the bloody vampire extravaganza as one of the company’s big upcoming releases, dramatically revealing it as the event’s show-stopping finale. 

Yet during the final frantic months, the remaining Arkane staff found themselves stretched thin and the debut date was pushed back from Halloween of 2022 to early 2023 and then eventually to May 2, 2023. Along the way, Smith and other leaders assured the staff that the game would get exponentially better once the final art was implemented and the bugs were fixed, promising that “Arkane magic” would manifest at the last minute as it had with previous games. (Other developers, such as Electronic Arts Inc.’s BioWare, have been widely criticized for using similar language.)

In the end, Redfall never coalesced. Several people who played the game in 2021 were shocked to see how little ultimately changed. The final glitchy product felt to some critics like a poor compromise between single-player and multiplayer ideas that failed to please fans of either type of game.

Harvey Smith recently said in an interview with the website Eurogamer that “early on” he pushed back against the compulsory inclusion of an in-game store. But people who worked on the game said the remarks didn’t square with how things played out. For the first three years, Redfall had a significant microtransaction plan in place. Only in 2021, with “games as a service” growing more controversial among gamers, did Arkane finally scrap its unwieldy in-game monetization plans. 

Recently, Microsoft has said that Arkane will continue working to improve Redfall. But its rough launch only raises the pressure for the rest of the ZeniMax lineup, particularly Starfield, which is scheduled to arrive in September. In the interim, the industry will be watching to see what lessons Microsoft has learned.

“The disappointment of Redfall evidences Microsoft’s desperate need for attractive content if it is indeed going to beat rivals Sony and Nintendo at their own game,” analyst van Dreunen said. “My hope is that it will inoculate Xbox from repeating a similar mistake in the future.”


Suncor to cut 1,500 jobs by end of year, employees informed Thursday

Suncor Energy Inc. says it will cut 1,500 jobs by the end of the year in an effort to reduce costs and improve the company's lagging financial performance.

Spokeswoman Sneh Seetal confirmed the cuts, saying they will be spread across the organization and will affect both employees and contractors.

Seetal says employees were informed of the cuts in a companywide email from Suncor CEO Rich Kruger earlier this afternoon.

Suncor has been under pressure from shareholders — including activist investor Elliott Investment Management — to improve its financial and share price performance, which has lagged its peers.

Kruger, the former CEO of Imperial Oil Ltd., took the reins at Suncor earlier this spring and has been tasked with turning around the oilsands giant.

Suncor employs people across the country, in the U.S., and the U.K. Its corporate head office is located in Calgary.


Norway Looks To Ramp Up Exploration In Arctic Waters

  • The Norwegian government recently asked energy companies to increase their oil and gas exploration in remote areas, such as the Arctic Barents Sea.

  • In 2020, Norway exported 87 percent of its energy production.

  • Norway is expected to offer a record number of oil and gas exploration blocks in the Arctic for companies to begin exploration. 

Norway appears to remain firmly committed to its oil and gas operations despite leading the green transition. Norway has long used almost entirely renewable energy to power its domestic consumption, yet it is still one of the world’s biggest producers of oil and gas for export. Considering that revenues from its fossil fuel operations have helped it amass huge wealth, in the form of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, it’s no wonder Norway is dedicated to oil and gas. But as one of the forerunners in the green transition, with ambitious climate targets, can being an oil and gas producer as well as a massive proponent of renewable energy really align? 

Norway is an energy-rich country, with vast oil and gas resources in the North Sea, as well as hydropower and wind sources. This has allowed it to develop its vast fossil fuel revenues for reinvestment in economic diversification, including the development of its green energy projects. In 2020, Norway exported 87 percent of its energy production, and was the seventh-largest natural gas exporter in the world, providing 3 percent of the world’s gas. It also supplied 2.3 percent of the world’s oil in 2020. At the domestic level, its hydropower production covered 92 percent of its national demand. The country has reinvested its oil and gas earnings into green projects in recent years, particularly in national infrastructure, meaning it now has a high level of electrification. Electricity provides almost half of the country’s total final consumption (TFC), the highest share of International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries. 

With an already strong renewable energy industry and a high level of electrification, Norway could be one of the leaders of the global green transition, with the potential to lead the world on new technologies for decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors. For example, if the right policies and incentives are introduced, the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and green hydrogen could be significant, according to the IEA.

Despite this progress, Norway remains heavily committed to its oil operations as a major source of revenue, while the global demand remains high. The Norwegian government recently asked energy companies to increase their oil and gas exploration in remote areas, such as the Arctic Barents Sea, despite pressure from climate activists to curb its oil and gas activities. The support for greater exploration responds to the energy shortages of 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russian oil and gas. 

Norway overtook Russia as one of the largest natural gas suppliers to Europe last year and is looking to keep that place to ensure European energy security as well as reduce Russia’s role in Europe’s energy market. And its revenues have increased substantially, with the country earning around $131 billion in net income from petroleum in 2022, compared to $29 billion in 2021. To this end, Norway’s Petroleum and Energy Minister Terje Aasland reportedly stated that the industry should “leave no stone unturned” in the search for newhydrocarbon discoveries in the Barents Sea. The country’s biggest oil and gas company Equinor, as well as VÃ¥r Energi, a major exploration and production company, confirmed this call to action. 

There are already several oil and gas fields in production and under development in the Norwegian continental shelf, after 50 years of successful operations in the region. However, it is estimated that much more undiscovered oil lies in the Arctic’s Barents Sea. Much of this region remains unexplored due to the high costs involved with new projects, as well as limited export opportunities. However, with the growing European demand for non-Russian gas, this could all change. And Norway is expected to offer a record number of oil and gas exploration blocks in the Arctic for companies to begin exploration. 

Unsurprisingly, several environmental groups disagree with the move, calling on Norway to stop new exploration and further develop its renewable energy potential. Many organisations believe that Norway’s actions are going against its climate pledges and its role as a Paris Agreement signee. Frode Pleym, head of Greenpeace Norway said “Both Norway and the oil corporations need to stop cynically exploiting Russia’s war in Ukraine,”. Pleym explained, “The aggressive and greedy oil policy of Norway do not only consolidate Oslo’s position as a top energy supplier to Europe, it locks a whole continent into future dependency on fossil fuels. The alternative to oil and gas is not more oil and gas, it is more energy efficiency and renewable energy.” 

Norway is the biggest hydropower nation in Europe, and its wind and floating offshore wind capacity is significant and ever-growing. It is also developing its floating solar resources and using direct heat in its cities. Several major Norwegian companies, such as Equinor, are investing heavily in renewable energy projects abroad to support the green transition and become global leaders in green energy. But despite the leaps and bounds taken in renewables, Norway simply refuses to leave its oil and gas potential unexplored. While this could help boost European energy security, it could also lead to a longer reliance on oil and gas than may be necessary. 

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

Scientists Report Breakthrough With Very Low Cost Calcium Battery

  • Tohoku University researchers have managed to develop a prototype calcium metal battery.

  • The battery is capacable of 500 cycles of repeated charge-discharge.

  • Calcium is widely available and inexpensive, and has higher energy density potential than lithium-ion batteries.

Tohoku University researchers have recently developed a prototype calcium metal rechargeable battery capable of 500 cycles of repeated charge-discharge. Five hundred cycles is the benchmark for practical battery use. The breakthrough was made thanks to the development of a copper sulfide nanoparticle/carbon composite cathode and a hydride-based electrolyte.

With the compulsive sales of electric vehicles and grid-scale energy storage systems on the rise, the need to explore alternatives to lithium-ion batteries has never been greater.

The breakthrough has just been reported in the journal Advanced Science.

The advancement is focused on the element calcium and now a prototype is in testing. Calcium (Ca) is the fifth most abundant element in earth’s crust, calcium is widely available and inexpensive, and has higher energy density potential than lithium ion batteries (LIB). Its properties are also thought to help accelerate ion transport and diffusion in electrolytes and cathode materials, giving it an edge over other LIB-alternatives such as magnesium and zinc.

But many hurdles remain in the way of Ca metal batteries’ commercial viability. The lack of an efficient electrolyte and the absence of cathode materials with sufficient Ca2+ storage capabilities have proved to be the main stumbling blocks.

Schematic of a prototype Ca metal battery. The battery comprises a Ca2+-storing positive electrode containing the CuS/C composite and a Ca plating/stripping negative electrode with a hydride-based electrolyte, Ca(CB11H12)2 in DME/THF. Image Credit: Tohoku University. Click both the press release and the open access study report for more images and information.

In 2021, some members of the current research group provided a solution to the former problem when they realized a new fluorine-free calcium electrolyte based on a hydrogen (monocarborane) cluster. The electrolyte demonstrated markedly improved electrochemical performances such as high conductivity and high electrochemical stabilities.

Kazuaki Kisu, assistant professor at Tohoku University’s Institute for Materials Research said, “For our current research, we tested the long-term operation of a Ca metal battery with a copper sulfide (CuS) nanoparticle/carbon composite cathode and a hydride-based electrolyte.”

Also a natural mineral, CuS has favorable electrochemical properties. Its layered structure enables it to store a variety of cations, including lithium, sodium and magnesium. It has a large theoretical capacity of 560 mAh g-1 – two to three times higher than present cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries.

Through nanoparticulation and compositing with carbon materials, Kisu and his colleagues were able to create a cathode capable of storing large amounts of calcium ions. When employed with the hydride-type electrolyte, they produce a battery with a highly stable cycling performance. The prototype battery maintained 92% capacity retention over 500 cycles based on the capacity of the 10th cycle.

The group is confident that their breakthrough will help advance research into cathode materials for Ca-based batteries. “Our study confirms the feasibility of Ca metal anodes for long-term operations, and we are hopeful the results will expedite the development of Ca metal batteries,” said Kisu.

***

When one thinks about low cost materials, calcium and its naturally occurring forms comes to mind really quickly. The theoretical potential is outstanding. Getting it to work is now a strong possibility.

Calcium based batteries might make electric vehicles a practical reality. At the moment the practicality is factually a niche, and a not particularly big one at that. Weight has to be reduced dramatically, cost come down by a factor of 5 or more, charge time immensely cut and safety improved such that they can be parked in a garage without the insurance company going nuts.

That makes this important news. Yes it's a new born technology, but over time the potential is simply huge and the demand for electrical storage grows by the second.

By Brian Westenhaus via Newenergyandfuel.com

France's New Push To Expand Geopolitical Influence In Africa

  • Macron has been eager to re-establish French influence in Africa, despite myriad issues in the last six years.

  • rance’s emphasis on the fight against terrorism in the Sahel has further eroded ties between France and the people of Africa.

  • Currently, Paris is trying to woo African nations to its side by implementing a soft power policy through strengthening ties with civil society and appealing to young people.

On March 4, during his trip to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), French president Emmanuel Macron shared his vision for France, with Paris remaining deeply engaged in Africa. He portrayed France as the European partner which had the greatest amount in common with African countries in terms of values and provides the most support for mutually beneficial security and trade relationships (Euractiv, March 6). Macron’s ongoing attempt to facilitate France’s re-emergence as a fully-fledged regional security actor in Africa is not occurring rapidly enough to compensate for the country’s decreasing status in its traditional spheres of economic and cultural influence in Africa, however. Macron’s words were nevertheless consistent with what he has said since he was first elected in 2017. Macron has been eager to re-establish French influence in Africa, despite myriad issues in the last six years: armed conflicts have made the Francophone Sahel region a center of insurgency, French troops have withdrawn from Mali, with even the Algerian government indicating that English will be taught in the country’s schools instead of French (Al Mayadeen, October 7, 2022; La Croix, April 3).

France’s Waning Security Position

In the 1990s, French policy towards Africa came under heavy criticism, and the subsequent souring of French-African relations resulted in a decrease in French diplomatic representation on the continent (Le Monde, March 6). Paris’s most significant stumbling block was its failure to act during the Rwandan Genocide in 1994, when France was accused of failing to prevent the actions of its ally, the government of then-President Juvenal Habyarimana, when it began preparations for what would occur (Le Figaro, May 27, 2021). France’s emphasis on the fight against terrorism in the Sahel at the expense of its economic strategy in the past decade has likewise further eroded ties between France and the people of Africa (France 24, May 24, 2022).

Despite a massive, sustained military effort with more than 5,000 troops deployed in countries such as Niger and Chad, France has not been able to successfully counter the threat from jihadists, whose attacks on local communities and security forces continue in the Sahel (Le Point, January 27). France’s waning influence allowed African states to reorient their economic and security partnerships as the continent has once again become a geopolitical battleground. Now Chinese, Russian, and Turkish influence are growing on the continent and presenting alternatives to that of France (AfricaNews, March 15).

In Mali, France’s inability to combat the insurgency in the north of the country was a subtext to the May 2021 coup d’état that catapulted Colonel Assimi Goïta to power (North Africa Post, November 18, 2022). Operation Barkhane, the French military counter-terrorism campaign that began in 2013, became mired in an increasingly impotent fight against the al-Qaeda affiliate, Group for Supporters of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS)—all while political instability engulfed Bamako (France Bleu, November 9, 2022). Since the coup, Goïta has shunned Paris and gravitated toward Moscow, whose Wagner mercenaries were already active in another former French colony, the Central African Republic (CAR) (Le Monde, February 4).

The Return of French Soft Power

Currently, Paris is trying to woo African nations to its side by implementing a soft power policy through strengthening ties with civil society and appealing to young people. In March, during a four-country trip to Central Africa, Macron called for a “mutual and responsible relationship” with African nations, including on climate issues (France 24, March 1). Having prompted a shift towards a lower-profile, more collaborative military approach amid the French withdrawal from Mali, Macron is also trying to foster cultural connections with French-speaking Africa by improving access to visas for Africans to pursue post-graduate study in France (Dzair Daily, February 28).

In July 2022, Macron launched a charm offensive to reboot France’s relationship with Africa, touring Cameroon, Benin, and Guinea-Bissau on his first trip to the continent since winning re-election in April 2022 (Euronews, 26 July, 2022). He also promised to reduce France’s military presence across Africa (L’independant, February 27). Macron further claimed France would circumvent “anachronistic” power struggles in Africa, declaring that African states ought to be treated as equal partners in the area of military and economic cooperation (Le Point, February 27).

Nevertheless, African countries themselves seem to prefer to follow a multi-vector foreign policy. For instance, African states’ attitudes toward China and Russia are shifting as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a UN General Assembly vote in March 2022, 38 African states condemned Moscow’s war on Ukraine, while 16 states abstained (Africa Renewal, April 21, 2022). Despite this, farmers’ associations from 11 Central African states asserted that disruptions in food supplies caused by the war in Ukraine have led to skyrocketing food prices, reducing purchasing power for many Africans (North Africa Post, September 15, 2022). Many African states, therefore, have adopted a “neutral” position on Moscow’s war and might prefer a “peace deal” that, at present, would secure Russian territorial gains in Ukraine and the flow of food to Africa (Al-Jazeera, February 26).

Conclusion

France currently has neither the tools to replace China, Russia, or Turkey nor the intention to be the dominant power in Africa. However, Turkey’s economic challenges and Russia’s prolonged war against Ukraine could create an opening for France to take a more assertive role in Africa, if they are able to induce African states to distance themselves from other powers (Daily Sabah, April 11). As Paris is realizing in Africa, the fight against jihadists, which has been so crucial to its foreign policy on the continent, can only be won by binding military prowess with local governance initiatives, tackling corruption, and improving the lives of civilians. France will not be able to remain influential in Africa with an over-emphasis in counter-insurgency as it has in the past—instead, a more comprehensive strategy will be needed.

By TheJamestownfoundation.org

 

Exxon Is Ramping Up Activity In Offshore Guyana As The Economy Soars

  • Guyana now the world’s fastest growing economy.

  • Exxon and partners have three further projects underway in the Stabroek Block with the $12.7 billion Uaru development the latest to be approved.

  • Guyana’s oil revenues are being invested in a flurry of infrastructure projects including highways, a deep-water port and a natural gas to energy project

With more than 35 oil discoveries since 2015 the impoverished South American microstate of Guyana has emerged as the world’s hottest frontier drilling location. Global energy supermajor ExxonMobil is leading the charge by exploiting the prolific offshore Stabroek Block where it has discovered over 11 billion barrels of oil resources. Guyana is on-track to become a leading South American oil producer and exporter with production tipped to exceed 1.2 million barrels per day by 2027, making it the world’s 16th largest petroleum producer. This is delivering a tremendous economic bonanza for Georgetown with Guyana now the world’s fastest growing economy. There are fears, however, that Guyana lacks the requisite governance frameworks to effectively manage the massive windfall generated by oil. This leaves the former British colony at risk of being afflicted by the oil curse that left neighboring Venezuela in political and economic chaos.

Exxon’s 2015 Liza-1 well in the 6.6-million-acre Stabroek Block, where it is the operator with a 45% working interest with Hess and CNOOC holding 30% and 25% respectively, was the first significant oil discovery in offshore Guyana. Since then, Exxon has reported over 30 discoveries in the block and by April 2023 was pumping nearly 400,000 barrels per day from the Liza oilfield with two floating production storage and offloading vessels. Exxon and partners have three further projects underway in the Stabroek Block with the $12.7 billion 250,000 barrel per day Uaru development the latest to be approved. Exxon plans to start the Payara project during the fourth quarter 2023, with commissioning activities currently underway, which will be the third major offshore development. Payara will have capacity of 220,000 barrels per day, which once achieved will boost Guyana’s total petroleum output to over 600,000 barrels per day giving Georgetown’s oil revenues a healthy boost. Those operations along with the yet to be approved Whiptail project will lift Guyana’s oil output to 1.2 million barrels per day by 2027.

Exxon is also proceeding with a relentless drilling campaign in Guyana. During late-April 2023 the supermajor announced a discovery in the Stabroek Block with the Lancetfish-1 well which intersected with 92 feet of oil-bearing sandstone. Nonetheless, the Kokwari-1 wildcat well drilled in the northwest section of the Stabroek Block 37 miles from the Liza-1 well came up dry. Exxon also spudded the Basher-1 and Blackfin-1 exploratory wells during the first quarter 2023. Those form part of a 10 well exploration campaign in the Stabroek Block. During March 2023, Exxon filed an Environmental Impact Assessment with Guyana’s Environmental Protection Agency outlining a 35 well drilling plan for the Stabroek Block. Previous drilling successes make likely that Exxon will report further oil discoveries over the course of 2023 which will boost the volume of recoverable oil resources in the Stabroek Block, which were previously estimated to exceed 11 billion barrels. 

Exxon’s oil operations in the Stabroek Block are delivering a tremendous economic and fiscal windfall for Georgetown. The impoverished South America microstate with a population of over 800,000 emerged during 2020 as the world’s fastest growing economy reporting that gross domestic product expanded by a whopping 43.5% that year. Since then, Guyana’s economy has expanded at a stunning rate. For 2021, GDP grew by 20% and then a whopping 62% during 2022 with it predicted the economy will expand by a notable 37% in 2023, making it the fastest growing economy of any sovereign state. Guyana is benefiting from a substantial financial windfall from the massive offshore oil boom despite the disadvantageous contract with the Exxon led consortium which leaves the country exposed to financial and environmental risks. According to Guyana’s central bank, the South American microstate received $53.3 million in royalties and $143.3 million of profits from oil during April 2023. At the end of April 2023, Guyana’s natural resource fund had a balance of $1.67 billion. For 2023, Guyana’s finance minister expects oil income to rise by a notable 31% year over year to $1.63 billion. Those sums will continue to grow as oil production expands and Exxon brings additional FPSOs online.

The tremendous revenue from oil flowing into Guyana is being invested in a flurry of infrastructure projects including highways, a deep-water port and a $1.9 billion natural gas to energy project. The deep-water port under construction in Eastern Guyana at the town of Berbice is a key piece of urgently needed energy industry infrastructure.

The port is being constructed by CGX Energy, a 78% owned subsidiary of Canadian intermediate oil producer Frontera Energy. On completion in late-2023 the port will significantly expand Guyana’s cargo capacity, including for oil, with the country’s two existing petroleum shipment facilities already operating at capacity with no room for expansion. The port also has the potential to service neighboring Suriname, which is undergoing its own nascent oil boom with it speculated that the impoverished former Dutch colony possess considerable offshore oil potential on par with Guyana.

Guyana is among the poorest countries in South America with swathes of the population living in poverty without access to basic public goods such as clean running water and electricity. Petroleum is delivering an economic bonanza which will lift Guyana out of poverty and see it become South America’s wealthiest country, a mantle once held by Venezuela. There are fears this vast oil wealth will spark the endemic corruption as well as economic and political dysfunction which caused Venezuela to virtually implode. In less than two decades, Venezuela’s economy, weighed down by a dictatorial socialist regime that fostered corruption, political chaos and malfeasance, collapsed. Indeed, there was a time when President Hugo Chavez believed the considerable revenue generated by Venezuela’s vast oil wealth would never end. Yet by 2015 Venezuela’s economy was in ruins weighed down by sharply weaker oil prices and a failing oil industry. Whether this will occur in Guyana is yet to be seen, but there are fears already rampant corruption and existing political instability could create ideal conditions for the oil curse to claim another victim. 

By Matthew Smith for Oilprice.com