Monday, June 26, 2023

Activists celebrate victory after Peru drops ‘Genocide Bill’

ROGER MCKENZIE
SUNDAY, JUNE 25, 2023

Cut down trees lie within view of the Cordillera Azul National Park in Peru's Amazon, October 3, 2022


ACTIVISTS welcomed on Saturday the decision by lawmakers to drop plans for a new law labelled a “Genocide Bill” by Peru’s indigenous people.

In a dramatic reversal of fortune, the country’s Decentralisation Committee blocked the law on a Friday which had been drafted by politicians with close ties to the powerful oil and gas industry.

Teresa Mayo of Survival International described this as “a huge victory for Peru’s Indigenous peoples, their organisations, and for thousands of ordinary people around the world who had joined the campaign against the proposals.”

Indigenous organisations in Peru, such as the Inter-ethnic Association for the Development of the Peruvian Jungle (AIDESEP) and the Regional Organisation of the Indigenous Peoples of the East (Orpio), had lobbied intensively to stop the Bill, and more than 13,000 Survival supporters had written to the committee, urging them to block it.

The Bill would have opened up indigenous lands for industrial exploitation.

Tabea Casique of AIDESEP said: “The scrapping of the draft Bill protects our uncontacted relatives, their rights and their lives and avoids the genocide and ecocide that it would have unleashed.”

Roberto Tafur of Orpio said they intended to “continue fighting for our brothers and sisters in the jungle, who don’t know that we’re fighting for them.”

GEMOLOGY

Local dealers decry influx of illegal Chinese traders to Myanmar jade town

Chinese are overtaking the market in Kachin state, driving some out of business
By RFA Burmese
2023.06.25


Local dealers decry influx of illegal Chinese traders to Myanmar jade townJade mines near Hpakant in Kachin state in July 2020. More Chinese national jade traders have come to Myanmar’s jademine town of Phakant in Kachin state after the military coup and started making illegal purchases which hurt the local dealers, local jade traders told RFA.
 Credit: Ye Aung Thu/AFP

Burmese gemstone dealers are frustrated over the influx of Chinese jade traders who have set up shop in a northern mining town in Myanmar since the 2021 military coup, residents say.

The traders are purchasing gems illegally at lower cost, making already tight margins razor thin for brokers in Hpakant township in Kachin state, driving some out of business out of business, they say.

Myanmar’s Law for Gemstone Trading, enacted by the country’s parliament in 2019, limits foreign nationals seeking to buy stones to gem fairs in Mandalay and Naypyidaw. 

The illegal export and sale of jade is punishable by up to 10 years in prison, but the junta has held few offenders accountable in Kachin – nestled between India to the west and China to the east – since coming to power.












A resident of Hpakant told RFA that, in the past, only Myanmar nationals bought raw stones directly from township mines and then washed, cut, or transported them for resale in the country’s official gem fairs.

“But these days, Chinese buyers use the WeChat messaging app and come to buy everything, including loose soil, directly from the mines,” said the resident who, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on condition of anonymity citing security concerns.

“It’s only natural that the prices directly offered by major traders are better than local dealers in the sale of any goods, including rice, beans and other crops,” he said. “The price gap is hurting local dealers.”

According to a report by international rights group Global Witness, from 2014-2017, the annual revenue from the legal sale of jade and other gemstones in Myanmar ranged from US$346 to $417 million, while the illegal jade market netted US$1.73 billion to $2.07 billion annually.

Black market

The situation presents a conundrum for Myanmar’s jade dealers, who rely heavily on demand from China’s domestic market for their gems. 

That demand has led to entrepreneurs seeking to eliminate the middleman by going straight to the source of the jade, to the point where approximately half of the people traveling to Hpakant to buy gemstones are Chinese, residents said.

Aung Hein Min, a former lawmaker who was elected to represent Hpakant in Myanmar’s 2020 election, told RFA that it is critical for authorities to enforce the ban on the illegal purchasing of gemstones.

ENG_BUR_JadeDealers_06162023_02.jpg
Jade night market in Hpakant in Kachin state, in July 2020. Credit: Ye Aung Thu/AFP

“The jade and gemstones purchased directly from jade-mining towns by Chinese nationals will not be transported via legal routes, they will arrive in China through the black market,” he said. “That’s why it doesn’t do any good for our country or our people.”

However, junta Social Affairs Minister and Kachin state spokesman Win Ye Tun told RFA that foreigners are restricted from traveling to Hpakant, and that those caught skirting the ban are arrested and deported.

He also noted that not all of the Chinese using WeChat in Hpakant are foreign nationals.

“They may be [ethnic] Chinese Myanmar nationals,” he said. “We carefully inspect the situation and take action against them in accordance with the law, rather than criticizing baselessly … And it isn’t just Chinese – we do not accept any foreign nationals in those areas and we have always taken action accordingly.”

ENG_BUR_JadeDealers_06162023_03.jpg
Jade night market in Hpakant in Kachin state July 2020. Credit: Ye Aung Thu/AFP

Win Ye Tun said that some Chinese nationals had been arrested and deported during the more than two years since the military coup, although he could not provide an exact number.

He claimed that the junta has not granted any extensions or new permits for jade mining in Hpakant since the takeover.

‘Industry is hurting’

Meanwhile, traders in Hpakant told RFA that the domestic jade market has declined since the coup and that only bright, translucent jade is selling in China, adding to the pressure faced by local brokers.

“If you buy stones for resale, you can only earn money for a day’s worth of meals and you won’t make a living to provide for your family,” one local trader said. “The gemstone industry is hurting. There is no longer demand for the opaque stones that used to sell and could earn us an income.”

Complicating matters further, Myanmar’s military and a joint force of anti-junta Kachin Independence Army and paramilitary People’s Defense Force fighters have been locked in a standoff in Hpakant since early this year. Imports of food and fuel from Myanmar’s heartland are regularly blocked from entering the region by military checkpoints.

But despite the conflict, jade traders said Chinese nationals are “freely entering and exiting” Hpakant and illegally shipping jade from the area back home.

Translated by Myo Min Aung. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.


IMPERIALI$M THE HIGHEST STAGE OF CAPITALI$M


Qatar delivers last batch of mobile homes for quake victims in Türkiye

25 June 2023

 

Qatar said it had shipped the last batch of mobile homes prepared for the victims of the Feb. 6 earthquake disaster in Türkiye and Syria, Azernews reports, citing Anadolu Agency.

In a statement, the Qatar Fund for Development (QFFD) said the mobile homes had arrived in Hatay in southern Türkiye on Saturday.

“Over the course of three months following the earthquake, QFFD delivered 10,000 fully furnished, insulated shelters to over 15 different cities and towns across southeast Türkiye,” QFFD said.

QFFD “continues to improve the livelihood of vulnerable communities worldwide by providing the necessary aid to save lives, give hope, and promote peace and justice through sustainable and inclusive development,” it added.

Following the earthquake disaster, Qatar has pledged 10,000 mobile homes for the victims. The first batch of 306 fully equipped homes arrived in Türkiye on Feb. 12.

On June 13, the Qatar Red Crescent Society launched a donation campaign for establishing the Hayat Sehir city in Istanbul, to house orphans affected by the earthquakes.

More than 50,000 people were killed in two powerful earthquakes that struck southern Türkiye on Feb. 6.

The 7.7- and 7.6-magnitude quakes that were centered in Kahramanmaras province, affected more than 13 million people across 11 provinces.

Several countries in the region, including Syria and Lebanon, also felt the strong tremors that struck in less than 10 hours.
BEFORE THE UNABOMBER
Unmasking the Mad Bomber

When James A. Brussel used psychiatry to think like a criminal, he pioneered the science of profiling


Michael Cannell
April 2017

Scott Bakal

Shortly after lunch on a cold December morning in 1956, a trio of New York City detectives stepped out the back door of the copper-domed police headquarters looming like a dirty gray temple above the tenements and trattorias of Little Italy. Across the street, half-shrouded in winter shadow, a revolver-shaped sign hung outside John Jovino’s, the oldest gun store in the city, if not the country, where patrolmen bought the .38 Specials slung on their hips. Down the block, on the corner of Grand Street, was a German restaurant called Headquarters. Under its carved mahogany ceiling, at a long oak bar, the top brass took their off-duty rye and beer.

Today the three detectives had no time for such distractions. Led by a veteran captain, Howard Finney, they walked briskly to an unmarked police cruiser, a big green-and-white Plymouth idling at the curb, and drove south through the winding downtown streets on an urgent errand.

Four days earlier a bomb had exploded during a showing of War and Peace at the Paramount movie palace on Flatbush Avenue, in Brooklyn. At 7:50 p.m., as an audience of 1,500 gazed up at a St. Petersburg drawing room rendered in Technicolor reds and blues, a thundering detonation flashed from orchestra row GG, followed by billows of ashen smoke. Then screams filled the theater—as moviegoers glimpsed faces and scalps scythed open by shrapnel.

The Paramount blast was not an isolated event. Any New Yorker who read newspapers knew that for 16 years the police had searched for a serial bomber who identified himself only as F.P. He had planted 32 homemade explosives in the city’s most crowded public spaces—theaters, terminals, subway stations, a bus depot and a library—injuring 15.

F.P. had yet to kill, but it was only a matter of time. The New York Journal-American, an afternoon newspaper of scrappy disposition, called him “the greatest individual menace New York City ever faced.”

In all those years, a period stretching back to 1940, the largest, most formidable police force in the nation had failed to hustle up any worthy leads. Its failings were forgivable as long as the bomber crafted crude and ineffective ordnance. But by 1956 his handiwork showed a lethal new proficiency. He declared his deadly intent in letters sent to newspaper editors. Each rambling, raging letter was cryptically signed “F.P.”

Desperation drove the police to pursue a course they had never before considered in the department’s 111-year history. On that late fall afternoon Captain Finney and his two bomb squad sidekicks left headquarters to call on James A. Brussel, a psychiatrist with expertise in the workings of the criminal mind. If physical evidence could not lead the police to F.P., maybe emotional insights could. Nobody could recall an instance when the police had consulted a psychiatrist. A physical description of the bomber was unobtainable, Captain Finney reasoned, but maybe Brussel could use the evidence to draw a profile of the bomber’s inner self—an emotional portrait—that would illuminate his background and disorder. It was a radical notion for 1956.

Brussel had at first demurred, citing his workload. The New York Department of Mental Hygiene had 120,000 patients, and the caseload grew by 3,000 a year. Patient files were stacked high on his desk. In addition he shouldered a full schedule of lectures and meetings and the demands of private practice. “I had real people to deal with,” he said, “not ghosts.”

Brussel had other reservations. He hesitated to test his theories in such a high-profile case. What if his analysis failed to break the case or, worse, sent the police in the wrong direction? “I don’t know what you expect me to do,” Brussel observed skeptically. “If experts haven’t cracked this case in more than ten years of trying, what could I hope to contribute?”

In the end Brussel couldn’t resist the chance to participate in the biggest manhunt in New York history. Psychiatrists normally evaluate patients and consider how they might react to difficulties—conflict with a boss, sexual frustrations, the loss of a parent. Brussel began to wonder whether, instead of starting with a known personality and anticipating behavior, perhaps he could start with the bomber’s behavior and deduce what sort of a person he might be. In other words, Brussel would work backward by letting F.P.’s conduct define his identity—his sexuality, race, appearance, work history and personality type. And, most important, the inner conflicts that led him to his violent pastime.

Brussel called his approach reverse psychology. Today we call it criminal profiling. Whatever the term, it was still a virtually untested concept in the 1950s. Brussel’s role models at the time were fictional investigators, most notably C. Auguste Dupin, the reclusive amateur detective invented by Edgar Allan Poe in the 1840s. Dupin was the original profiler, a master channeler of the psychotic mind and the forebear of Sherlock Holmes and Hercule Poirot.

A wiry figure with a droll smile and a pencil mustache dyed to match his dark, combed-back hair greeted Captain Finney in the downtown Broadway offices of the Department of Mental Hygiene, where Brussel served as assistant commissioner. If Captain Finney was circumspect and grave, Brussel was his opposite: loud of opinion, quick-witted and manically animated.

Brussel was a dominant presence on and off duty. At parties, he was the fastest talker, the first with a one-liner, the guest most likely to seat himself at the piano for a round of show tunes.

He had composed an operetta, Dr. Faustus of Flatbush, which met a riotous reception at a psychiatric convention, and he had published psychoanalyses of Dickens and van Gogh. He saw in Tchaikovsky signs of an Oedipus complex. His analysis of Mary Todd Lincoln found her to be “psychotic with symptoms of hallucinations, delusion, terror, depression and suicidal intentions.”

Brussel had an uncommonly quick mind and a facility for interlocking clues. In the evenings, when he was finished supervising the treatment of psychotics and manic depressives in state hospitals, he sat in the upstairs office of his brick cottage on the grounds of a Queens asylum—where he lived with his wife, Audrey—and composed reams of crossword puzzles for the New York Times and Herald Tribune on graph paper he made by obsessively drawing grids on blank pages. Hour after hour he darkened the pages with words and lists of clues: goddess of peace. Neck muscle. Clusters of spores. Roman road. Honey drink. Glacial ridges. Hemingway epithet. Aesop’s race. He produced so many puzzles that he was obliged to publish under three names, lest his byline become awkwardly pervasive.

Captain Finney took a seat facing Brussel’s desk. “We’d appreciate any ideas you might have on this case, Doctor.” Finney admitted that investigators had reached a dead end.

Captain Finney emptied a satchel of evidence on Brussel’s desk. Out spilled photographs of unexploded bombs along with photostats of strangely worded letters and documentary reports amassed over 16 years. “The bombs and the letters: these were all the police had,” Brussel would write. “The rest was a mystery.”

Brussel picked through the evidence, pausing to write notes in a pad. His mind assembled the possibilities as the information accrued, drawing on psychiatric theory and probabilities. The evidence “showed one thing very plainly,” Brussel would write. “At large somewhere in New York City was a man who was quite definitely mad.”

Captain Finney “was a short, stocky man of many accomplishments and few words,” Brussel later wrote. “He was looking at me, waiting for me to say something. I was looking at the pile of photographs and letters he had tossed on my desk.”

After two hours Brussel rose from his desk and stood at a window overlooking City Hall. Seventeen stories below, the first surge of rush-hour traffic thickened with long-finned sedans and Checker cabs clogging Broadway. Streetlights winked on. Chambers Street filled with men in trench coats and brimmed hats, heads down and shoulders slouched against the cold. They moved with haste, as New Yorkers do. “Any one of the people I saw below could have been the Mad Bomber,” Brussel would write. “There was a man standing next to a car. Another man was lounging in a doorway. Another was strolling along, looking up intently at the buildings. Each of them was on these streets at that hour for some reason. Perhaps a legitimate reason, perhaps not. . . . So little was known about the Mad Bomber that virtually anyone in the city could be picked at random as a suspect. Anyone—and no one.”

The manhunt had lasted so long and had engendered so much frustration that Captain Finney and his men had come to feel as if they were chasing a specter loose in the streets. “He seemed like a ghost,” Brussel later recalled, “but he had to be made of flesh and blood. He had been born, he had a mother and father, he ate and slept and walked and talked. Somewhere people knew him, saw his face, heard his voice. . . . He sat next to people on the subways and buses. He strolled past them on sidewalks He rubbed elbows with them in stores. Though he sometimes seemed to be made of night stuff, unsolid, bodiless, he patently did exist.”

For a long moment Brussel looked as if he had slipped into a trance. While he was staring out at the strangers aswarm in the street, a detailed image of a living, breathing man took shape. He turned to Captain Finney and described his fugitive, down to the cut of his jacket.

The bomber, Brussel began, was a textbook paranoid schizophrenic. People suffering from this disorder, he explained, may believe other people are controlling them or plotting against them. They are typically reclusive, antisocial and consumed with hatred for their imagined enemies. For all their derangement, they’re capable of acting quite normal—until, inevitably, some aspect of their delusions enters into their conversation. “The paranoiac is the world’s champion grudge-holder,” Brussel would explain. “We all get mad at other people and organizations sometimes, but with most of us the anger evaporates eventually. The paranoiac’s anger doesn’t. Once he gets the idea that somebody has wronged him or is out to hurt him, the idea stays in his mind. This was obviously true of the Mad Bomber.”

The condition, Brussel said, worsened over time, progressively clouding normal logic. Most paranoids don’t become fully symptomatic until after age 35. If the bomber was about that age when he planted his first bomb, in 1940, he would now be at least in his mid-40s, probably older. His guess about the bomber’s age “could have been wrong,” Brussel acknowledged, “but, I thought, the laws of probability were on my side.” The laws of probability, or what Brussel called “inferential deductions,” played into most of his conclusions. “They are not infallible,” he said, “but neither are they mere guesses.” Like Sherlock Holmes, he was playing the odds.

Now Brussel paused, “trying to screw up the courage to articulate my next deduction.” The bomber, he continued, is “symmetrically built . . . neither fat nor skinny.” From across the desk Finney shot him a skeptical look. “How did you arrive at that?”

Brussel cited a German psychiatrist, Ernst Kretschmer, who correlated body type with pathologies. In a study of some 10,000 patients, he found that a majority of paranoids had “athletic” bodies—medium to tall with a well-proportioned frame. The probability was 17 in 20 that the bomber fell into that category.

Brussel continued: Like most paranoids, F.P. felt the need to convey his superiority. He did so with a self-righteous insistence on order. A fastidiousness verging on prissiness showed in the letters to newspapers he’d hand-printed in nearly perfect block letters free of smudges or erasures. F.P., Brussel said, “was almost certainly a very neat, proper man. As an employee...he had probably been exemplary. He had turned out the highest-quality work. He had shown up precisely on time for work each morning. He had never been involved in brawls, drunkenness or any other messy episodes. He had lived a model life—until the alleged injustice, whatever it was, had occurred.”

The same care surely applied to his grooming. “He’s probably very neat, tidy, cleanshaven,” Brussel predicted. “He goes out of his way to seem perfectly proper. . . . He wears no ornament, no jewelry, no flashy ties or clothes. He is quiet, polite, methodical, prompt.”

Captain Finney nodded. The man who had eluded him for years was coming into focus.

The bomber, Brussel continued, was afflicted by a sense of persecution caused in the formative stages of his gender development, roughly ages 3 to 6. In his young life he’d confronted the shameful knowledge of a forbidden sexual desire—most likely an erotic fixation on his mother. He protected himself from the shame and horror with a twisted bit of Oedipal logic: I desire my mother. But that’s horribly unacceptable. She’s married to my father. I’m now competing with him for her affection. I’m jealous of him. He’s jealous of me. He hates me. He persecutes me.

The original cause of the hate never surfaced in the young F.P.’s consciousness, and it gradually faded. All that remained was the sense of persecution and the searing desire for revenge.

According to Freudian theory, the Oedipus complex normally resolves itself. Most boys come to recognize that their grievance is misconceived, and they reconcile the sexual impulses that originally shamed them. But in a diseased mind such as F.P.’s, the paranoia spreads like a contagion. Any two entities with something in common would, no matter how illogically, meld into one in his mind. His sense of persecution could therefore disburse from his father to a boss, to a company, to politicians and to any organization that could plausibly symbolize authority.

To Brussel, the paranoid’s inclination to assign guilt by association explained an inconsistency that had stumped the police. In his letters the bomber had singled out Con Edison, the utility company, but he planted only the first of his bombs on Con Ed property. He would see people or organizations with the remotest connection to Con Ed as conspirators, no matter how illogical that might be. He might blame Con Ed for some unstated offense, Brussel said, “but he twists it around so that wherever a wire runs, gas or steam flows, from or to Con. Edison Co., is now a bomb target.”

F.P. seemed convinced, as a paranoid would, that a range of companies and agencies had conspired with Con Ed. By way of evidence his letters mentioned “Con Edison and the others” and “all the liars and cheats.” This, Brussel said, helped to explain why F.P. had bombed theaters and train stations. He was at war with a world colluding against him.

For the bomber, the drive for vengeance, the need to correct what’s amiss in the world, had likely assumed a religious ardor. He had, Brussel explained, formed a covenant with God to carry out a private mission of revenge, which would only make it harder to catch him. “This pact is a secret between him and God,” Brussel said. “He would never let a hint drop. Why should he ever let you catch him doing something wrong?”

Divine standing could lead the bomber to commit ever more drastic acts, Brussel warned, if the earlier blasts had not yet accomplished his goals. The bomber would feel that he possessed the righteous power to punish those who failed to accept the validity of his claims.

With godliness came omnipotence, and with omnipotence came contempt for lesser beings. The bomber’s confidence in his superiority, his arrogance would make it hard for him to hold a job. So he was likely to be, if not impoverished, then at least penurious. But even in poverty he would find a way to keep up a smart impression in his grooming and wardrobe. “He would always have to give the appearance of being perfect,” Brussel said.

The bomber, Brussel continued, almost surely operated as a lone wolf. Paranoids “have confidence only in themselves,” Brussel explained. “They are overwhelmingly egocentric. They distrust everyone. An accomplice would be a potential bungler or double-crosser.”

Brussel knew that the three detectives in his office had waged a long, frustrating manhunt. Paranoid schizophrenics, he explained, were the hardest of deranged criminals to catch because their mind splits between two realms: Even as they lose themselves in warped delusions, they continue to follow logical trains of thought and lead outwardly normal lives. They watch the world around them with a wary, distrustful eye.

“For a long while, as the three police officers sat and waited in silence, I studied the Mad Bomber’s letters,” Brussel would recall. “I lost all sense of time. I tried to immerse myself in the man’s mind.”

F.P.’s reliance on clunky, old-fashioned phrases, such as “dastardly deeds,” erratically spaced with phrases set off by dashes, suggested a foreign background.“There was a certain stilted tone in the letters, a total lack of slang or American colloquialisms,” Brussel would recall. “Somehow the letters sounded to me as though they’d been written in a foreign language and then translated into English.”

The police had long suspected F.P. was German, or of German extraction, because of his vaguely Teutonic lettering, particularly his G’s, which ended their circular form with a pair of horizontal slashes, like an equal sign. Brussel thought of the many bombings by anarchists and other radicals in Eastern Europe and said, “He’s a Slav.”

The three detectives shot Brussel a startled look. “Mind giving the reasoning behind that?” Captain Finney asked.

“Historically, bombs have been favored in Middle Europe,” Brussel answered. “So have knives.” Of course, those weapons are used throughout the world. “But when one man uses both, that suggests he could be a Slav.”

Captain Finney looked skeptical.

“It’s only a suggestion,” Brussel said. “I’m just playing the odds.”

Brussel wasn’t finished. If the bomber was a Slav, that could also be a clue to his location: Brussel flicked through the postmarks, noting that most of the letters were mailed in Westchester, the county immediately north of the city. Brussel guessed that the bomber was disguising his whereabouts by posting his letters halfway between New York and one of the industrial towns in Connecticut where Slavic immigrants had settled.

Now Brussel focused on the handwriting. The penmanship was nearly flawless, as Brussel would expect from a fastidious paranoiac. F.P. had formed almost perfectly rectilinear letters—with one exception. The W’s looked like double U’s, in a literal sense, with no overlapping diagonal arms. The sides were curved instead of straight. They also had peculiar rounded bottoms. “The misshapen W might not have caught my eye in most people’s hand-printing, but in the bomber’s it stood out. Consider the paranoiac: a man of obsessive neatness, a man who will not tolerate a flaw in what the world sees of him. If there is any little untidiness about this man, anything even slightly out of place, it catches a psychiatrist’s attention immediately.”

The W “was like a slouching soldier among twenty-five others standing at attention, a drunk at a temperance society meeting,” Brussel continued. “To me, it stood out that starkly. . . . Language is a mirror of the mind. That odd curved W had to reflect something about the Mad Bomber, it seemed to me. . . . Something subconscious had compelled the bomber to write this one particular letter in a distinctive way—something inside him so strong that it dodged or bulldozed past his conscience.”

Might the W’s resemble breasts, or maybe a scrotum? Brussel wondered. If so, had F.P. also unconsciously fashioned bombs shaped like penises? “Something about sex seemed to be troubling the bomber,” Brussel thought. “But what?” He deliberated for long moments, his eyes scanning the evidence.

He told Finney, “Sorry I’m taking so long.”

“Take all the time you want,” Finney said. “We didn’t come here expecting pat answers.”

Brussel had already established that an Oedipus complex had caused F.P. to develop into a full-blown paranoid. His Oedipal hatred for his father had spread in adulthood to a broad range of authority figures. “The bomber obviously distrusted and despised male authority: the police, his former employees at Con Ed,” Brussel would write. “To the bomber, any form of male authority could represent his father.”

Brussel now looked back through the evidence for signs of sexual disturbance. His eyes rested on photos of theater seats the bomber had slit open to secrete his explosives in a dark place. “Something about the bomber’s method of planting bombs in movie houses had bothered me since I’d read the first newspaper account years before,” Brussel would say. “There was something strange, not fully explained by the available facts.” The slashing was an uncharacteristically violent act. Everything in the evidence suggested a careful man who would avoid unnecessary risks and minimize signs of his presence. Why did he go to the trouble of slitting open seats and stuffing his bombs in the upholstery?

“Could the seat symbolize the pelvic region of the human body?” Brussel wondered. “In plunging the knife upward into it, had the bomber been symbolically penetrating the woman? Or castrating a man? Or both? . . . In this act he gave expression to a submerged wish to penetrate his mother or castrate his father, therefore rendering the father powerless—or to do both. . . . It fit the picture of a man with an overwhelming, unreasonable hatred of men in authority—a man who, for at least 16 years, had clung to the belief that they were trying to deprive him of something that was rightfully his. Of what? In his letters he called it justice, but this was only symbolic. His unconscious knew what it really was: the love of his mother.”

Brussel hesitated to explain these graphic psychiatric details to the detectives. They seemed too far-fetched. Instead he gave them a shorthand version, saying the bomber was probably unmarried and unattached—the classic loner. He was unfailingly courteous, but without close friends. “He wants nothing to do with men—and, since his mother is his love, he is probably little interested in women either.”

He was, Brussel added, “quite possibly a virgin. . . . I’ll bet he’s never even kissed a girl.” Slavs valued family ties, so he probably lived with “some older female relative who reminded him of his mother.”

A long silence followed as the detectives absorbed Brussel’s assessment. It was a lot to take in, and it may have sounded preposterous to those uninitiated in the strange ways of Freudian reasoning.

By now the shadows of the December dusk had obscured the city outside Brussel’s office window. After four hours with Brussel, the ghost in the streets had assumed human form in Captain Finney’s mind—a fastidious, middle-aged loner of Slavic descent with a history of run-ins with neighbors and colleagues. He lived in a northern suburb, probably in Connecticut, with an elderly female relative, and secretly nurtured a grudge against Con Ed and other powerful institutions.

Finney and his men put on their coats and packed the evidence. The two men shook hands, then the three detectives moved to the door. In the parting moment Brussel closed his eyes. An image of the bomber came to him with cinematic clarity. He wore outdated clothes since his contempt for others would prevent him from holding steady jobs. His attire was old-fashioned, but clean and meticulous. It would be prim, perhaps with an enveloping, protective aspect.

“Captain, one more thing. When you catch him,” Brussel said, “and I have no doubt you will, he’ll be wearing a double-breasted suit.”

Brussel added, “And it will be buttoned.”

The New York Times printed Brussel’s findings in a front-page story on Christmas Day. A few nights later the phone rang in Brussel’s Queens home. Because he treated so many violent criminals, Brussel had an unlisted number, but anybody could reach him by calling Creedmoor, the psychiatric hospital where he lived. The switchboard forwarded calls to Brussel’s home, patching in the police if the caller sounded suspicious. Brussel suspected that was the case when his phone rang at 1 a.m.

“Is this Dr. Brussel, the psychiatrist?”

“Yes, this is Dr. Brussel.”

“This is F.P. speaking. Keep out of this or you’ll be sorry.”
























**********

Shortly before midnight on January 21, 1957, detectives armed with a warrant entered the home of George Metesky, a Con Edison plant worker forced to retire after toxic fumes from a furnace blast brought on a crippling case of tuberculosis.

As detectives entered the sagging three-story house near the top of a short, steep hill in Waterbury, Connecticut, they could see for themselves that Metesky matched the criteria Brussel had itemized. Metesky met them at the doorstep wearing round gold-rimmed eyeglasses and burgundy pajamas buttoned to the neck under a bathrobe. He was a thickset middle-aged man of Lithuanian descent with a history of workplace disputes. He shared the house with a pair of unmarried older sisters. He’d never married, never had a girlfriend. Neighbors described him as fastidious with a reputation for petty disputes.

In Metesky’s creepily neat bedroom, detectives found a notebook filled with handwriting similar to F.P.’s block lettering. They handed Metesky a pen and asked him to write his name on a sheet of yellow paper. They watched, spellbound, as the familiar block letters appeared on the page—the G in George had the telltale double bars. The Y had a distinctive serif.

“Why don’t you go ahead and get dressed, George,” a detective said. Here was a moment of truth. The detectives knew that Brussel had also predicted the bomber would dress in a buttoned double-breasted jacket. Sure enough, Metesky stepped from his bedroom wearing sensible brown rubber-soled shoes, red-dotted necktie, brown cardigan sweater, and double-breasted blue suit.

“Tell me, George,” a detective asked, “what does F.P. stand for?”

Metesky exhaled. His frown relaxed. “Fair play.” With those two words, barely whispered, the 17-year manhunt came to a quiet end.


When the detectives (after a 1957 arrest) nabbed Metesky, his sisters protested that "George couldn't hurt anybody." Peter Stackpole / The Life Picture Collection / Getty Images

**********

To gain footing in the ensuing years, profiling had to be sold by a performer, and Brussel knew how to put on a performance. He had a head for science and a showman’s touch. His charisma and confidence swept detectives along with him as he made nimble leaps of deduction, not to mention the FBI agents who learned at his feet. By the 1970s Brussel was known as a founding father of the emergent field of profiling. The press variously called him the “Prophet of Twelfth Street,” “Sherlock Holmes of the Couch” and “the Psychiatric Seer.”

As much as anyone, it was Brussel who united the fields of psychiatry and policing. “Those of us who were interested in combining criminology and medicine keenly followed his work,” says Park Dietz, a forensic psychiatrist who has consulted on cases including the Unabomber. Although Brussel may at times have seemed more promoter than scientist, there is no denying his accomplishments. “He made predictions with striking precision,” says psychologist Kathy Charles of Scotland’s Edinburgh Napier University. “He kick-started the police thinking that psychiatry could be an effective tool for catching offenders.”

The Metesky case, more than any other, had established Brussel as a folk hero of criminology. “At times I was almost sorry I had been so successful in describing George Metesky, for I had to live up to that success,” he later wrote. “It wasn’t always easy and sometimes it was impossible. There were times when I made mistakes. There were times when I simply lacked enough information to build an image of the criminal. There were times when the law of averages let me down: I’d diagnose a man as a paranoiac and imagine him as having a well-proportioned physique and then he’d turn out to be among the 15 percent of paranoiacs who are not so built. Yes, there were cases on which I failed. But I continued to succeed often enough so that the police kept coming to me.”

Even as he consulted with police around the country, Brussel—who would be active in the field until his death at age 77 in 1982—continued to work for the Department of Mental Hygiene. In that capacity he occasionally visited Matteawan, a Hudson Valley hospital for the criminally insane where Metesky was incarcerated. On one trip he asked to see Metesky.

It was the first and only meeting between the bomber and the psychiatrist. “He was calm, smiling and condescending,” Brussel wrote. Metesky told Brussel of his plans to be discharged and deprecated his bomb-making skills. The devices had never been powerful enough to cause much damage, Metesky claimed.

Was it possible, Brussel asked, that during all that time Metesky had actually suffered from mental illness? Was it possible that he really was a paranoid schizophrenic, as Brussel had concluded?

“He didn’t become angry,” Brussel wrote. “He was the patronizing and successful paranoiac who, as God, could appreciate and magnanimously forgive his children’s mistake. He smiled at me. With a wave of his hand he said, ‘It could have been, it could have been. But I wasn’t.’ Then he bowed graciously and left the room.”




Incendiary: The Psychiatrist, the Mad Bomber, and the Invention of Criminal ProfilingBuy



Michael Cannell | READ MORE
Michael Cannell is the author of three nonfiction books. His latest, Incendiary: The Psychiatrist, the Mad Bomber and the Invention of Criminal Profiling, is due out this month. (April 2017)

Sunday, June 25, 2023

GEORGE METESKY MEMORIAL SOCIETY 
U$ retailers targeted with bomb threats, seeking Bitcoin and gift cards

By Karen Graham
Published June 25, 2023

Kroger #555, located at 5007-2 Victory Blvd in Tabb, VA. 

Some of America’s biggest retailers have been hit by a string of bomb threats and ransom demands in recent months,

Business Insider points out that bomb threats at schools, airports, and even political organizations is not that unusual, but the latest spate of bomb threats against retailers comes with a new twist:

It seems the perpetrators of the bomb threat calls are demanding money, as in hard cash, Bitcoin, or gift cards. And if their demands are not met, they threaten to set off a bomb hidden somewhere within the business.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Retail companies including Kroger, Walmart, and Amazon’sbWhole Foods Market, among others, have received bomb threats at their stores in recent months.

The threats have been spread across various areas from New Mexico to Wisconsin. At a Kroger-owned store in New Mexico, an employee received a call from a suspect who asked her to wire money and said a bomb would go off if she called the police, according to Reuters.

A similar incident was reported in a suburb north of Chicago, where a caller told a Whole Foods Market employee a pipe bomb had been placed in the store and demanded $5,000 in bitcoin, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile, in May, two Meijer locations in Wisconsin reportedly received similar threats, hours apart. The second threat, made to a location in Grafton, Wisconsin, also demanded $5,000 of Apple gift cards, per the report.

Rodney McMullen, the CEO of Kroger, told reporters it took threats seriously and was working with police and the FBI. Walmart said it cooperated with law enforcement, and Whole Foods said it was guided by law enforcement officials.

Bomb threats are taken seriously by law enforcement. And the first thing that always happens is the store or retail establishment is always evacuated. Then, a special bomb squad is brought in and the facility is searched.

So far, in all these incidents, no suspicious packages or explosive devices were found. And that we should be thankful for. However, the criminals perpetrating these fake bomb threats are doing economic damage to retailers.

And we won’t even try to address the stress and trauma laid on workers and customers. These are nothing more than shoddy scams to try and get money, or bitcoin. And I can’t imagine what anyone would do with $5,000 worth of Apple gift cards.


NAFTA TOO
Mexico emerges as a leading nearshoring destination, outpacing Asian countries and the United States

By Richard Mann
June 25, 2023

Mexico has surpassed low-cost Asian countries and the United States in nearshoring, as highlighted by a recent analysis conducted by U.S. consulting firm Kearney.

The analysis, which compares Asian and Mexican manufacturing imports to U.S. domestic manufacturing output, reveals Mexico’s rising performance.

From 2013 to 2022, Mexico’s score reached 1.76 points, surpassing Asian countries (1.62 points) and the United States (1.22 points).

Nearshoring refers to a specific form of offshoring where companies relocate their operations to neighboring countries to reduce costs
.
Mexico City. (Photo Internet reproduction)

In the case of North America, Mexico, and Brazil are popular nearshoring destinations.

Wage differentials play a lesser role compared to farshoring (relocating to distant low-wage countries), with a focus on cost reduction.

The study considers various Asian economies, including China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Bangladesh, India, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Cambodia.

Mexico has gained a significant share of imports into the United States and has even outpaced recent U.S. domestic manufacturing growth, accounting for inflation in 2021 and 2022.

Kearney identifies four types of companies driving the surge in U.S. imports. Firstly, U.S. companies that previously sourced from China are increasing their production.

Secondly, many products manufactured in Mexico for the U.S. market originate from U.S. or European companies seeking to expand their capacity in Mexico.

Companies like Tupperware, Hasbro, Tesla, and Mattel have announced plans to boost production in Mexico.

Chinese companies also leverage Mexico’s manufacturing capabilities to supply their U.S. customers and reduce reliance on U.S.-China relations.

Finally, secondary and tertiary Chinese suppliers follow suit, establishing themselves in Mexico to serve original equipment manufacturers.

Despite official figures indicating modest Chinese investment in Mexico, the landscape tells a different story, with noticeable industrial park expansions such as Hofusan near Monterrey.

Industries experiencing growth in U.S. imports from Mexico include transportation equipment, computer and electronic products, medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, aerospace, furniture, and building materials.

A Kearney survey of corporate CEOs reveals a growing interest in relocating production facilities to the U.S., with 96% of respondents in 2022 indicating they have already relocated or are considering relocating in the past three years, compared to 78% in 2021.
Russia Mutiny Is More Proof the World Needs to Get Rid of Nuclear Weapons

DEFCON ONE

A nuclear superpower didn’t descend into chaos. What happens the next time?


Joseph Cirincione

Contributing Writer
THE DAILY BEAST
Published Jun. 25, 2023
OPINION



We dodged a nuclear bullet. The Prigozhin rebellion is over for now. Russia’s nuclear forces are under control. But it gave us another chilling reminder of how weapons we believe provide our ultimate security can quickly become our ultimate danger.

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, with some 5,900 weapons, most capable of destroying a city. The use of one or two would be a catastrophe. Ten would be a level of destruction never before seen in human history. A hundred or more would bring the end of civilization.

There were four major nuclear risks during this 24-hour coup. Two unlikely; two very real.

Ukraine’s Ticking Nuclear Time Bomb
PUTIN’S MELTDOWN

Joseph Cirincione



The first was that Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin would seize some of Russia’s nuclear weapons. This was highly unlikely.

As Carnegie Endowment nuclear expert James Acton points out, all Russian nuclear weapons are equipped with use controls, requiring codes to unlock. Even if he gained access to them, how would he use them? Whomever used Russian weapons on Russian people would immediately become a national pariah.

The second was that Vladimir Putin would use them against the rebels. He has command of the codes and weapons (though some believe he may need the concurrence of the defense minister or military chief to launch them). But he, too, would face the same problem as Prigozhin. Despite his repeated nuclear threats, even Putin understands that the weapons don’t have much military purpose and their use would discredit the user.

More serious was the risk of the collapse of the state, and with it, the system of nuclear command and control. Only once before in history has the world faced the prospect of a nuclear-armed nation descending into chaos. That was in the August 1991 attempted coup against Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev. It, too, failed.

But when the Soviet Union collapsed a few months later, there was immediate concern: Who gets the weapons? Who gets the material used to build the weapons? What happens to the scientists who know how to build the weapons?

Don’t Panic About Putin’s Nuclear Saber-Rattling
STEP AWAY FROM THE BUTTON

Joseph Cirincione



At that time, the U.S. and Russia were on good terms. A concerted, well-funded U.S. effort led to the greatest cooperative nuclear reductions in history, including the removal and destruction of thousands of weapons from Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.

With Putin now gravely weakened, the Russian state again appears unstable. But there is no guarantee that such an effort could be repeated. A nuclear black market could spread weapons, material and scientists to the far corners of the globe.

The final terror was that an insane Putin might explode the weapons in revenge. If the coup succeeded and he was going down, would he take the nation down with him? Or worse? A nuclear version of Hitler in the bunker asking “Is Paris burning?”

As in all nine nuclear-armed states, the decision to launch nuclear weapons is left to one or two leaders. There is no democracy in nuclear use. No vote required. No debate. No court decision can block it. The military is drilled daily to follow a launch order immediately, without question. Only a far greater mutiny than we saw June 24 could prevent it.

Although there have been dozens of computer and machine failures that brought us perilously close to mistaken nuclear launches over the decades, the weakest link in the nuclear command and control chain remains the humans who manage them. Many of these leaders have been considered mentally unbalanced, including in our country. It takes a committed optimist to believe that we can leave thousands of nuclear weapons in fallible human hands indefinitely and something terrible won’t happen.

Something terrible will happen. It just didn’t happen this time.

Presidential efforts under John Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, and Barack Obama sought to end this danger by eliminating nuclear weapons. They all reasoned that risks like those we just experienced are too serious to endure. “The weapons of war must be abolished,” Kennedy said, “before they abolish us.”

Their efforts were blocked by men insisting we need nuclear weapons for protection, despite national arsenals brimming with conventional arms.

If we get another leader like these previous presidents, if we get another chance, we would be well to recall how close to the nuclear brink Prigozhin’s unexpected march on Moscow brought us.
EUROFASCISM
German Far-Right Party Wins Its First County Leadership Post as It Rises in Polls

June 25, 2023 
Associated Press
Robert Sesselmann of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, speaks in Sonneberg, Germany, June 25, 2023. Sesselmann won a closely-watched run-off vote for district administrator in Sonneberg. (Photo by FERDINAND MERZBACH/NEWS5/AFP)

BERLIN — 

The far-right Alternative for Germany party saw its first head of a county administration elected Sunday in a rural eastern region, a win that comes as national polls show its support at record levels.

A runoff election in Sonneberg county pitted Alternative for Germany's candidate, Robert Sesselmann, against center-right rival Jürgen Köpper. Official figures showed Sesselmann, who had been well ahead in the first round two weeks ago, winning by 52.8% to 47.2%.

Sonneberg has a relatively small population of 56,800, but the win is a symbolic milestone for Alternative for Germany, or AfD. The 10-year-old party has been polling between 18% and 20% in national surveys lately.

It has been riding high as center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz's governing coalition with the environmentalist Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats faces strong headwind over high immigration, a plan to replace millions of home heating systems and a reputation for infighting, while inflation remains high.

Köpper's center-right opposition Union bloc leads national polls, with lackluster support ratings of just under 30%.

AfD first entered the national parliament in 2017 after campaigning strongly against migration following an influx of refugees to Europe during the preceding years. Lately it has come out against German support for Ukraine.

Despite being largely shunned by mainstream parties, it has established itself as a durable force, particularly in the formerly communist and less prosperous east. An AfD candidate made it into last week's runoff mayoral election in Schwerin, the capital of the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania but was easily defeated.

Sonneberg is located in Thuringia, one of three eastern regions that holds state elections next year.

AfD has drifted to the right over the years and faces increasing scrutiny from Germany's domestic intelligence agency.

Its regional branch in Thuringia is headed by a prominent figure on the party's hard right, Björn Höcke, who recently was charged by prosecutors over his alleged use in a 2021 speech of a slogan used by the Nazis' SA stormtroopers.


German Jews express shock as far-right AfD party wins breakthrough vote

The party opposes economic sanctions against Moscow over the Ukraine war and dispute that human activity is a cause of climate change.

By REUTERS
Updated: JUNE 26, 2023 

Right wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) top candidate for the upcoming general election, Alice Weidel, speaks during a campaign in Berlin, Germany, September 24, 2021.
(photo credit: REUTERS/ANNEGRET HILSE)

A far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) candidate won a vote on Sunday to become a district leader in Europe's biggest economy for the first time, a breakthrough for the party which has hit record highs in national polls.

The 10-year old AfD, with which Germany's mainstream parties officially refuse to cooperate due to its radical views, won a run-off vote in the Sonneberg district in the eastern state of Thuringia with its candidate garnering 52.8% of the vote.

It is the latest success for the party which is riding a wave of popular discontent with Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz's awkward coalition with the Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) which is dogged by infighting over policy and the budget.

Polling at 19%-20%, behind the opposition conservatives, the AfD is tapping into voter fears about recession, migration and the green transition, say analysts. It even plans to nominate a chancellor candidate in the 2025 federal election.

Germany's Nazi past

While far-right parties have gained ground around Europe, the strength of the AfD is particularly sensitive in Germany due to the country's Nazi past.

Tino Chrupalla arrives on the podium after he was elected as leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party during a party congress of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Riesa, Germany, June 18, 2022 (credit: Matthias Rietschel/Reuters)

The President of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, Josef Schuster, expressed deep shock.

"This is a watershed that this country's democratic political forces cannot simply accept," he told RND media.

Particularly strong in the former Communist East, polls suggest the party may win three eastern state votes next year.

A clear victory for the AfD's Robert Sesselmann in the district, which has a population of only around 56,000 people, sends a signal to Berlin, say analysts, especially as all other parties in Sonneberg joined forces in a front against him.

Sesselmann was forced into a run-off against a conservative candidate after a vote two weeks ago. The conservative candidate won 47.2% on Sunday.

The party opposes economic sanctions against Moscow over the Ukraine war and dispute that human activity is a cause of climate change.

The domestic intelligence agency said this month that far-right extremism posed the biggest threat to democracy in Germany and warned voters about backing the AfD.

Formed a decade ago as an anti-euro party, its popularity surged after the 2015 migrant crisis and it entered parliament in 2017, becoming the official opposition.

East German anger boils over in far-right win
Agence France-Presse
June 26, 2023, 

Robert Sesselmann, a lawyer and regional lawmaker, on Sunday captured 52.8 percent of the vote in a closely watched run-off election (FERDINAND MERZBACH)

Angry voters where Germany's far-right AfD party won its first district election over the weekend say they were out to punish the political establishment in Europe's top economy

Speaking to AFP in the ex-communist town of Sonneberg, residents said government officials had long failed to take their mounting concerns over inflation and immigration seriously.

Ingo Schreurs, 58, said he hoped the AfD's new district administrator Robert Sesselmann would "give voice to the worries and fears and outrage of a lot of citizens".

Blaming Berlin for "destructive economic policies", Schreurs said a highly controversial energy policy reform, for example, had left locals "afraid that we won't be able to heat our homes this winter".


On a sunny summer's day in Sonneberg, the neat storefronts, blossoming parks and pleasant cafe terraces offer little hint of the political earthquake that has just struck.

- 'Watershed moment' -

Holger Mueller, 49, said he "no longer saw any Germans" when he drove at night through Sonneberg, nestled on a hillside and famous for more than a century throughout Germany for its toy industry. He hopes the AfD will "stop the flow of foreigners".

Sesselmann, a lawyer and regional lawmaker, on Sunday captured 52.8 percent of the vote in a closely watched run-off election.

He beat his conservative rival Juergen Koepper, who had won the endorsement of all the mainstream parties in a bid to block an AfD victory.

The news the AfD would be running its first district council, albeit in a small constituency of just 57,000, struck like a bombshell.


Public broadcaster ARD called it a "watershed moment" while the top-selling newspaper Bild called it a "vote in anger" and the leftist daily Tageszeitung expressed "shock" at the outcome.

The head of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, Josef Schuster, compared the victory to a "dam break" that "democratic political forces in this country must not simply accept".

Far from just a one-off coup in a remote, thinly populated district, the AfD's triumph came after weeks of surging poll numbers at the national level.

An INSA institute survey Monday by Bild showed the extreme right party with more than 20.5 percent, ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ruling Social Democrats with 19.5 percent, its coalition partners the Greens (13.5 percent) and the pro-business FDP (6.5 percent).

Only the centre-right Christian Democrats had a better showing, at 26.5 percent.

The AfD is polling even better in the former communist East German states of Thuringia, Brandenburg and Saxony, which will see regional elections next year where the party is hoping to score even bigger breakthroughs.


In Sonneberg, Birgit Hillmer, 61, said she was "deeply ashamed" that her hometown had given the party a boost, blaming the community's past under communist rulers.

"I find it really terrible and embarrassing -- we're doing very well in this district," she said.

"People here grew up in a dictatorship and were marked by the dictatorship. Democracy means freedom and freedom means responsibility but people have shirked their responsibility here."


- 'Just the beginning' -


The AfD was founded in 2013 as an anti-euro outfit before morphing into an anti-Islam, anti-immigration party, harnessing a backlash against then chancellor Angela Merkel's welcoming stance toward refugees.

It stunned the political establishment when it took around 13 percent of votes in the 2017 general elections, catapulting nearly 100 lawmakers into the German parliament.


The AfD slid to around 10 percent in the 2021 federal election.

In Germany, where coalition governments are the norm, mainstream parties have always ruled out forming an alliance with the AfD.

But news magazine Der Spiegel called the party's win in Sonneberg "the result of a collective failure" of the political class, pointing to persistent squabbling in Scholz's coalition and the conservative opposition "pouring oil on the fire with populist rhetoric".


After the Sonneberg success, the AfD's co-chairman Tino Chrupalla saw the wind at the party's back.

"This is just the beginning," he tweeted.


Germany: Far-right AfD victory prompts political earthquake
DW
June 26,2023

After the AfD's weekend success in regional elections, critics warn the political floodgates have been opened. The party, parts of which have been labeled extremist by authorities, has its sights on ever larger goals.

Sunday's election result in a small district in east Germany's Thuringia region has triggered a political earthquake and a deluge of media and social media comments.

The Sonneberg election marked the first time a candidate from the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) was elected to head a government — albeit that of a small district of only 57,000 inhabitants: 50-year-old Robert Sesselmann won the election after a campaign that focused on national issues, including limiting immigration and ending military support for Ukraine.

A district administrator has no clout on such decisions, but jubilant AfD leaders are hoping Sunday's victory will herald far greater political success. According to the latest opinion polls, the AfD has realistic chances of becoming the strongest political force in three eastern German states in regional elections set for 2024.

Electorate unfazed by AfD scandals


All this is despite the various scandals that AfD politicians find themselves embroiled in: The mishandling of party donations, evidence of connections with militant right-wing extremists, and slanderous racist hate speech. And, voters in Thuringia seem undeterred by the fact that several party figureheads make positive references to fascism and the National Socialist regime under Adolf Hitler — in many cases violating the German constitution.

The AfD seems to be scoring points among voters on two political stances in particular: Opposing immigration and climate protection. For years, stirring up xenophobic and anti-Muslim sentiment has been at the center of the AfD's political campaign.

"The AfD's basic narrative has always been that there is a threat to German culture. For a long time, this came from the outside, through migrants," political analyst Johannes Hillje told the taz newspaper. "Now the narrative is that this threat is also coming from within, through the transformation of society to climate neutrality — a central project of the center-left coalition in Berlin and the Green Party."

AfD is the only true opposition


The center-left national government, a coalition of Social Democrats (SPD)Greens, and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) has been fraught with in-fighting over its energy

policies, nuclear power, taxes, and budget. To get laws passed at times of international crisis, they have gained some support from the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its regional sister party, the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), as well as the socialist Left Party.

Only the AfD, the outsiders on the far-right of Germany's political spectrum have not accepted any of the government's policies, and have therefore been able to present themselves as the only true opposition. Nor have they ever had to prove that they can actually take responsibility and run any government — partly because all their political rivals have so far ruled out any alliances with them.

The German population, meanwhile, has been increasingly unsettled by the war in Ukraine, rising energy prices, and inflation. Hillje says the federal government has not managed to allay the fears but allowed the AfD to instrumentalize them. The drawn-out squabbling over a program to phase out fossil fuel heating systems turned into what Hillje called a "stimulus program for right-wing populists."

But many also blame the conservative CDU/CSU bloc for the AfD's success. Some analysts say CDU chairman Friedrich Merz has been echoing far-right rhetoric by taking a populist line on refugees, LGBTQ rights, and climate protection. To many, this is a blatant bid to win back voters from the AfD, but they also warn that this will backfire, as voters generally prefer to vote for the original rather than the imitation.

AfD leaders and their most offensive remarks


Leading members of the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party have often made provocative, if not outright offensive, remarks — targeting refugees or evoking Nazi terminology.



Alexander Gauland

Co-chairman Alexander Gauland said the German national soccer team's defender Jerome Boateng might be appreciated for his performance on the pitch — but people would not want "someone like Boateng as a neighbor." He also argued Germany should close its borders and said of an image showing a drowned refugee child: "We can't be blackmailed by children's eyes."Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Murat


Christian Lüth

Ex-press officer Christian Lüth had already faced demotion for past contentious comments before being caught on camera talking to a right-wing YouTube video blogger. "The worse things get for Germany, the better they are for the AfD," Lüth allegedly said, before turning his focus to migrants. "We can always shoot them later, that's not an issue. Or gas them, as you wish. It doesn't matter to me."Image: Soeren Stache/dpa/picture-alliance

Alice Weidel

Alice Weidel generally plays the role of "voice of reason" for the far-right populists, but she, too, is hardly immune to verbal miscues. Welt newspaper, for instance, published a 2013 memo allegedly from Weidel in which she called German politicians "pigs" and "puppets of the victorious powers in World War II." Weidel initially claimed the mail was fake, but now admits its authenticity.


Frauke Petry

German border police should shoot at refugees entering the country illegally, the former co-chair of the AfD told a regional newspaper in 2016. Officers must "use firearms if necessary" to "prevent illegal border crossings." Communist East German leader Erich Honecker was the last German politician who condoned shooting at the border.Image: Getty Images/T. Lohnes


Björn Höcke



The head of the AfD in the state of Thuringia made headlines for referring to Berlin's Holocaust memorial as a "monument of shame" and calling on the country to stop atoning for its Nazi past. The comments came just as Germany enters an important election year — leading AfD members moved to expel Höcke for his remarks.Image: picture-alliance/Arifoto Ug/Candy Welz


Beatrix von Storch

Initially, the AfD campaigned against the euro and bailouts — but that quickly turned into anti-immigrant rhetoric. "People who won't accept STOP at our borders are attackers," the European lawmaker said in 2016. "And we have to defend ourselves against attackers," she said — even if this meant shooting at women and children.Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Murat


Marcus Pretzell

Pretzell, former chairman of the AfD in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia and husband to Frauke Petry, wrote, "These are Merkel's dead," shortly after news broke of the deadly attack on the Berlin Christmas market in December 2016.Image: picture alliance/dpa/M. Murat


Andre Wendt

The member of parliament in Germany's eastern state of Saxony made waves in early 2016 with an inquiry into how far the state covers the cost of sterilizing unaccompanied refugee minors. Thousands of unaccompanied minors have sought asylum in Germany, according to the Federal Association for Unaccompanied Minor Refugees (BumF) — the vast majority of them young men.Image: picture alliance/ZB/H. Schmidt


Andre Poggenburg

Poggenburg, former head of the AfD in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, has also raised eyebrows with extreme remarks. In February 2017, he urged other lawmakers in the state parliament to join measures against the extreme left-wing in order to "get rid of, once and for all, this rank growth on the German racial corpus" — the latter term clearly derived from Nazi terminology.Image: picture alliance/dpa/J. Wolf


Alexander Gauland, again ...

During a campaign speech in Eichsfeld in August 2017, AfD election co-candidate Alexander Gauland said that Social Democrat parliamentarian Aydan Özoguz should be "disposed of" back to Anatolia. The German term, "entsorgen," raised obvious parallels to the imprisonment and killings of Jews and prisoners of war under the Nazis.

... and again

Gauland was roundly criticized for a speech he made to the AfD's youth wing in June 2018. Acknowledging Germany's responsibility for the crimes of the Nazi era, he went on to say Germany had a "glorious history and one that lasted a lot longer than those damned 12 years. Hitler and the Nazis are just a speck of bird shit in over 1,000 years of successful German history."Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Prautzsch


Following Donald Trump's playbook


Germany is currently experiencing a development that reminds observers of the United States: There, despite many lies and scandals, former President Donald Trump remains a defining political force. Like Trump in the US, the AfD in Germany portrays itself as the sole alternative to the political establishment and as the voice of the people suppressed by the government in Berlin and the mainstream media.

The domestic intelligence service, as well as the Central Council of Jews and Muslim associations Muslims, see the AfD as a threat to democracy and warn against the AfD's links to anti-constitutional organizations and its increasingly influential extremist nationalist wing.

Following its election success in Thuringia, the AfD has also received open support from the neo-Nazi camp. Prominent far-right activist Michael Brück congratulated the party on his Telegram channel, before making a dark warning to the newly elected AfD district leader to: "There can be no false leniency in the necessary cleanup of the administration."

This article was originally written in German.