Wednesday, June 28, 2023

Gravity and dark matter, a bond beyond distances


A SISSA study proposes a new model of non-local interaction between the dark matter of a galaxy and gravity

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCUOLA INTERNAZIONALE SUPERIORE DI STUDI AVANZATI

Dwarf galaxy 

IMAGE: DWARF GALAXY view more 

CREDIT: NASA'S GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER/JENNY HOTTLE


Isaac Newton formulated his theory of gravity as an action at a distance: a planet instantly feels the influence of another celestial body, no matter the distance between them. This characteristic motivated Einstein to develop the famous theory of general relativity, where gravity becomes a local deformation of spacetime. The principle of locality states that an object is directly influenced only by its surrounding environment: distant objects cannot communicate instantaneously, only what is here right now matters. However, in the past century, with the birth and development of quantum mechanics, physicists discovered that non-local phenomena not only exist but are fundamental to understanding the nature of reality. Now, a new study from SISSA – Scuola Internazionale Superiore di Studi Avanzati, recently published in The Astrophysical Journal, suggests that dark matter, one of the most mysterious components of the Universe, interacts with gravity in a non-local way. According to the authors, PhD students Francesco Benetti and Giovanni Gandolfi, along with their supervisor Andrea Lapi, this discovery could provide a fresh perspective on the still unclear nature of dark matter.

Dark matter is a fundamental component of nature: it is responsible for the formation of the structures we observe in the Universe today and surrounds luminous matter in galaxies, contributing to the motion of the stars we see in the sky. However, the nature of dark matter, especially its interaction with gravity in smaller galaxies, remains mysterious. "In recent decades, the scientific community has made great efforts to understand these enigmatic phenomena, but many questions remain unanswered. To explore the nature of dark matter and its interaction with gravity, a new approach may be necessary," explain the authors of the study. The new research from SISSA has precisely explored this intriguing path.

The study proposes a new model of non-local interaction between the dark matter of a galaxy and gravity: "It's as if all the matter in the universe tells the dark matter in a galaxy how to move," state the authors. To model this non-locality, fractional calculus has been employed, a mathematical tool first developed in the 17th century and recently found applications in various areas of physics. The power of this calculus had never been tested in astrophysics before. "We wondered if fractional calculus could be the key to understanding the mysterious nature of dark matter and its interaction with gravity, and surprisingly, experimental results on thousands of galaxies of different types have shown that the new model more accurately describes the motion of stars compared to the standard theory of gravity," explain the authors. This non-locality appears to emerge as a collective behavior of dark matter’s particles within a confined system, proving particularly relevant in small-sized galaxies. A thorough understanding of this phenomenon could bring us closer what dark matter really is.

"However, many questions remain to be answered," emphasize the authors. "How does non-locality precisely emerge? What are its implications within larger structures, such as galaxy clusters, or in the phenomenon of gravitational lensing, which allows us to observe distant celestial objects?" Moreover, it will be necessary to reconsider the standard model of cosmology considering this new mechanism. "Further studies will be conducted to explore all these implications and more. We wouldn't be surprised to discover that other unresolved questions about the Universe could be resolved by the newly proposed non-locality." Advancements in understanding the nature of dark matter represent a significant step towards a better knowledge of our Universe. Ongoing research continues to provide new perspectives and brings us closer to a comprehensive understanding of the phenomena that surround us.

Truthful yet misleading packaging: Consumers falsely believe that low fat means less sugar


Peer-Reviewed Publication

MARTIN-LUTHER-UNIVERSITÄT HALLE-WITTENBERG




The "low fat" label on foods can do manufacturers and consumers more harm than good. According to a new study by Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU), when manufacturers advertise their products as being low in fat, many consumers assume that they also contain less sugar. However, the sugar content of many low-fat products differs little from that of other products. Many of the respondents in the study felt deceived by this and said they would be less inclined to buy these products. The paper was published in the journal Food Quality and Preference.

 

The researchers conducted three experiments to investigate how the information on yoghurt packaging influences perception and purchasing behaviour. A total of 760 people from the U.S. took part in the online experiments. They were asked to rate calorie content, sugar content and fat content on a scale of one to seven. They were also asked whether they would buy the product. "We wanted to find out whether information about a reduced fat content changed the overall perception of a product," says the study leader and economist Dr Steffen Jahn from MLU. 

The results showed that almost all of the respondents correctly estimated the lower calorie content of the low-fat yoghurt. At the same time, they also believed that the yoghurt contained less sugar than the yoghurt that wasn’t labelled low fat. In the second and third experiment, some of the respondents were shown the low-fat product with the actual nutritional information printed on the front. This group did correct their opinion on the sugar content, but their willingness to buy decreased, even though the low-fat yoghurt contained fewer calories. Another group was shown low-fat products without the 'low fat’ label and their purchase intention did not change. 

"Many people want to eat healthily but fail to do so for a variety of reasons. The information on food packaging also plays a role in this, as it can bias consumer perceptions," says Jahn. Some manufacturers take advantage of this effect. In Australia, a cake mix was advertised as being "97 per cent fat free" while containing 55 per cent sugar. 

"Our study shows that consumers can feel deceived by a product because, even though 'low fat’ claims by manufacturers are technically true, a part of the truth is concealed," concludes Jahn. Manufacturers should rethink this practice if they want to retain their customers in the long run, says the researcher. One possibility is to place the nutritional values directly on the front of the products. 

Study: Jahn S. et al. Truthful yet misleading: Consumer response to 'low fat’ food with high sugar content. Food Quality and Preference (2023). doi: 10.1016/j.foodqual.2023.104900

PREPING FOR NATO

DOE and Sweden sign joint implementation agreement to increase scientific cooperation

The agreement reflects the United States and Sweden’s commitment to advancing scientific knowledge. It aims to foster joint research


Business Announcement

DOE/US DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY




The Department of Energy (DOE) today signed an implementation agreement with Sweden to further promote and facilitate basic science research in energy and related fields.

The agreement reflects the United States and Sweden’s commitment to advancing scientific knowledge. It aims to foster joint research, shared facilities and exchanges of scientists in topics such as scientific computing, high energy physics, nuclear physics, fusion, basic energy sciences, and biological and environmental research.

Present at the signing were Erik Ramanathan, U.S. Ambassador to Sweden; Asmeret Asefaw Berhe, Director of the DOE’s Office of Science; Mats Persson, Swedish Minister for Education and Research; and Mikael Lindström, Deputy President, Sweden’s KTH Royal Institute of Technology.

“Collaborations are key for advancing the frontiers of science. The Department of Energy’s Office of Science looks forward to working more closely with our Swedish colleagues to leverage our respective expertise and resources,” said Asmeret Asefaw Berhe, DOE’s Office of Science Director. 

“For the Swedish Government, it is very important to tackle the societal challenges that we face with innovative and efficient solutions. In the energy field, we need to collaborate with the best to identify and develop ways to solve the growing need for clean and green energy production. Therefore, I am very happy that Sweden is now strengthening its cooperation with the U.S. in energy research,” said Minister for Education Mats Persson.

This implementing arrangement is subsidiary to the Agreement on Science and Technology Cooperation between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Kingdom of Sweden signed in 2006.

Newly discovered Jurassic fossils are a Texas first


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

Plesiosaur art 

IMAGE: AN ARTIST’S INTERPRETATION OF A JURASSIC PLESIOSAUR. FOSSILS FROM A PLESIOSAUR DISCOVERED IN WEST TEXAS ARE THE ONLY FOSSILS FROM A JURASSIC VERTEBRATE FOUND AND DESCRIBED IN THE STATE. THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN LED THE RESEARCH. CREDIT: DIBGD/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS. view more 

CREDIT: WIKIMEDIA



A team led by scientists at The University of Texas at Austin has filled a major gap in the state’s fossil record – describing the first known Jurassic vertebrate fossils in Texas.

The weathered bone fragments are from the limbs and backbone of a plesiosaur, an extinct marine reptile that would have swum the shallow sea that covered what is now northeastern Mexico and far western Texas about 150 million years ago.

The bones were discovered in the Malone Mountains of West Texas during two fossil hunting missions led by Steve May, a research associate at UT Austin’s Jackson School of Geosciences Museum of Earth History.

Before the discovery, the only fossils from the Jurassic that had been collected and described from outcrops in Texas were from marine invertebrates, such as ammonites and snails. May said that the new fossil finds serve as solid proof that Jurassic bones are here.

“Folks, there are Jurassic vertebrates out there,” May said. “We found some of them, but there’s more to be discovered that can tell us the story of what this part of Texas was like during the Jurassic.”

A paper describing the bones and other fossils was published in Rocky Mountain Geology on June 23.

The Jurassic was an iconic prehistoric era when giant dinosaurs walked the Earth. The only reason we humans know about them, and other Jurassic life, is because of fossils they left behind.

But to find Jurassic-aged fossils, you need Jurassic-aged rocks. Because of the geological history of Texas, the state hardly has any outcrops from this time in Earth history. The 13 square miles of Jurassic-aged rocks in the Malone Mountains make up most of those rocks in the state.

In 2015, when May learned while researching a book that there were no Jurassic bones in the Texas fossil record, he decided to go to the Malone Mountains to explore.

“You just don’t want to believe that there are no Jurassic bones in Texas,” May said. “Plus, there was a tantalizing clue.”

The clue was a mention of large bone fragments in a 1938 paper on the geology of the Malone Mountains by Claude Albritton, who later became a geology professor at Southern Methodist University (SMU). It was enough of a lead to get May and his collaborators out to West Texas to see for themselves. Large bone fragments are what they found. The plesiosaur fossils are eroded and broken up.

But it’s a start that could lead to more science, said co-author Louis Jacobs, a professor emeritus at SMU.

“Geologists are going to go out there looking for more bones,” Jacobs said. “They’re going to find them, and they’re going to look for the other things that interest them in their own special ways.”

Today, the Malone Mountains rise above the dry desert landscape. During the Jurassic, the sediments were deposited just below sea level probably within miles of the shoreline.

The team found several other specimens that give a look into the ancient shallow marine environment, such as petrified driftwood filled with burrows from marine worms and the shells of clams, snails and ammonites. The researchers found a range of plant fossils, including a pinecone, and wood with possible growth rings.

Globally, Jurassic plant fossils from lower latitudes close to the Earth’s equator are relatively rare, said co-author and paleobotanist Lisa Boucher, the director of the Jackson School’s Non-Vertebrate Paleontology Lab.  She said the plant finds should make the Malones a place of interest to other paleobotanists and those interested in paleoenvironmental reconstruction.

Scientists have been conducting research in the Malones for over 100 years. So, why did it take so long to bring back Jurassic bones? May has several ideas – from remoteness of the area and permitting, to the research interests of past scientists. Whatever the reasons, Boucher said that the team’s discovery of a Texas first shows the value of field work – simply traveling to a place to see what’s there.

“It’s frequently part of the scientific process,” Boucher said. “There’re a few lines buried in an old publication, and you think ‘surely somebody has already looked at that,’ but often they haven’t. You need to delve into it.”

The study’s additional co-authors are Kenneth Bader, a laboratory manager at the Jackson School Museum of Earth History; Joshua Lively, the curator of paleontology at Utah State University and a Jackson School alumnus; and Timothy Myers and Michael Polcyn, both researchers at Southern Methodist University.

Chemists are on the hunt for the other 99 percent


New mass spectrometry combo offers promise for tapping nature’s unknown chemical universe


Peer-Reviewed Publication

DOE/PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY

SLIM: Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations 

IMAGE: ADAM HOLLERBACH WITH A SLIM DEVICE CREATED AT PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY. view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO BY ANDREA STARR | PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY




The universe is awash in billions of possible chemicals. But even with a bevy of high-tech instruments, scientists have determined the chemical structures of just a small fraction of those compounds, maybe 1 percent.

 

Scientists at the Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) are taking aim at the other 99 percent, creating new ways to learn more about a vast sea of unknown compounds. There may be cures for disease, new approaches for tackling climate change, or new chemical or biological threats lurking in the chemical universe.

 

The work is part of an initiative known as m/or “m over q—shorthand for mass divided by charge, which signifies one of the ways that scientists measure chemical properties in the world of mass spectrometry.

 

“Right now, we can take a sample from soil, where, depending on soil type, there may be thousands of chemical compounds in just a teaspoon’s worth,” said Thomas Metz, who leads the m/Initiative. “And we don’t know what most of them are in terms of their chemical structures. We simply have no idea what’s in there.”

 

Scientists typically rely on reference libraries that contain information about thousands of molecules to identify substances. Researchers sort their samples from soil, the body, or elsewhere and compare what they have measured experimentally to what’s in the library. While that’s helpful, it limits scientists to only structurally identifying molecules that have been seen before—for example, through analysis of standard compounds purchased from chemical suppliers.

 

m/q scientists are taking aim at the other 99 percent that haven’t been identified—yet.

 

In the latest development, a team led by scientist Adam Hollerbach has combined two high-resolution instruments into one system to size up molecules in unprecedented detail. The results were published online June 12 in the journal Analytical Chemistry.

 

Now, scientists can make several important measurements about chemical compounds in one experiment, gaining important information faster, more conveniently, and more accurately than before.

 

Hollerbach’s technique applies to ions—molecules that have either a positive or negative charge. That makes them easier to control and possible to detect using mass spectrometry.

 

Mass spectrometry: tool of the ion whisperers

Like the people who study them, ions have many features that distinguish one from another. In people, weight, hair color, size, shape, eye color, and many other characteristics help us know who’s who. For ions, identifying characteristics include mass, shape, size, electric charge, and chemical composition. Those not only serve as identifiers but also as guides to the associated molecules’ behavior—clues to their potential to cure disease or sop up pollutants, for example.

 

That understanding should help the efforts of scores of scientists at PNNL who focus on understanding the effect of microbes on climate. Microbes play a key role in transforming elements like carbon into other forms that are important for the planet. Their impact on warming or cooling the planet is mighty. But scientists have much to learn.

 

“There may be millions of microbes in just a gram of soil, and we don’t know who most of them are or what they do. There’s a lot of discovery still to happen,” said Metz. “From the viewpoint of challenging science, it’s either a worst-case scenario or one of our greatest opportunities, depending on how you look at it.”

m/q scientists are seizing the opportunity. Instead of framing their questions within the relatively small number of compounds that can be identified in conventional mass spectrometry measurements, they’re trying to leapfrog current limitations and create a whole new way of identifying what is unknown today. It’s a bit like when a new telescope is deployed and reveals several distinct stars where before, just one blurry hodgepodge of celestial bodies was visible.

 

The work is both experimental, putting molecules through their paces in the laboratory, and on computers, where scientists model what they are seeing and predict what they will likely see.

 

In the experiments described in the Analytical Chemistry paper, Hollerbach and colleagues made sensitive measurements of peptides and lipids. The experiments combined two instruments with similar names but that provide different details about ions. Both are used in mass spectrometry, a field whose history is interwoven with discoveries by PNNL scientists.

 

The first instrument is a mass spectrometer, which measures an ion’s mass, electric charge, and how the ion breaks apart. In this study, the team used an Orbitrap developed by Thermo-Fisher Scientific. Such instruments sort molecules of different masses well, but two molecules with the same mass are difficult to separate. Think of two people, each weighing 180 lbs.—one is tall and thin while the other is short and stocky. On a scale alone, they would be impossible to separate.

 

A SLIM approach: ion mobility spectrometry brings hefty results

The second instrument is known as SLIM: structures for lossless ion manipulations. SLIM, created by PNNL scientist Richard D. Smith and colleagues, is an ion mobility spectrometer that measures an ion’s size and electric charge.

 

SLIM, which is about the size of a laptop and stands at just one-quarter of an inch thick, is a hothouse of molecular activity. Dozens of long, winding paths transform the small device into a 42-foot-long molecular racetrack, with ions that are controlled tightly by electric fields racing round and round an oval obstacle course.

 

The “obstacles” are other, known molecules such as helium or nitrogen molecules. As the ions under study race through the SLIM device, they navigate around or through the other molecules, tumbling and swerving much like a football running back runs through and around opposing blockers. The term “ion mobility spectrometry” truly captures the action.

 

By recording how long it takes for the ions to complete the course—how deftly they navigate the blocking ions—scientists learn all kinds of things about ions’ shape and size. That information, which isn’t available from a standard mass spec instrument, is combined with data about the ion’s mass, electric charge, and fragmentation pattern. Altogether, the data yields the ion’s collision cross section, its molecular formula, and its fragmentation pattern, properties that are central to understanding a molecule’s structure.

 

“Two different molecules can have the same number of atoms, and the same mass and charge, but they could have very different structures and activity. That’s where SLIM comes in to tell the difference,” said Hollerbach. “Just one small change can mean the difference between a molecule that is indicative of a disease and one that’s not.”

The key to Hollerbach’s experiment was getting the two different instruments to play nicely together. While both standard mass spectrometry and ion mobility spectrometry analyze ions, they work on different time scales. Ions make their journey through SLIM and arrive at the Orbitrap faster than they can be processed.

 

So Hollerbach drew on an old technique, deploying “dual-gated ion injection.” He added gates to control the intake of ions into the system and to control their arrival at the Orbitrap, choosing to send some of the ions from SLIM into oblivion to keep the flow at a manageable rate.

 

“Really, the questions we ask are very simple,” said Hollerbach. “What is this, and how much is there? But the techniques we use are complex.”

 

Other m/scientists are working on additional ways to identify or exploit unknown molecules. Some are creating ways to use data like that from Hollerbach’s experiment to predict an ion’s structure automatically, so drug makers and other scientists would know exactly what they’re working with. Others are scouting out the millions of possibilities for forms of compounds such as fentanyl, sorting out what’s unlikely from what might show up on the street one day. Then they predict how those compounds would behave inside a mass spectrometer—creating a way to identify them if and when they do show up.

 

The work described in the Analytical Chemistry paper was funded by the m/q Initiative at PNNL. The mass spectrometry measurements were made at EMSL, the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, a DOE Office of Science user facility at PNNL.

 

In addition to Hollerbach and Metz, PNNL authors of the paper are Yehia M. Ibrahim, Vanessa Meras, Randolph V. Norheim, Adam P. Huntley, Robert G. Ewing, and Richard D. Smith. Gordon Anderson, formerly of PNNL, with GAA Custom Engineering LLC in Benton City also contributed.

 

# # #


 

About PNNL

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory draws on its distinguishing strengths in chemistryEarth sciencesbiology and data science to advance scientific knowledge and address challenges in sustainable energy and national security. Founded in 1965, PNNL is operated by Battelle for the Department of Energy’s Office of Science, which is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States. DOE’s Office of Science is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, visit https://energy.gov/science. For more information on PNNL, visit PNNL's News Center. Follow us on TwitterFacebookLinkedIn and Instagram.

New model provides unprecedented window into human embryonic development


Peer-Reviewed Publication

YALE UNIVERSITY




Two to three weeks after conception, an embryo faces a critical point in its development. In the stage known as gastrulation, the transformation of embryonic cells into specialized cells begins. This initiates an explosion of cellular diversity in which the embryonic cells later become the precursors of future blood, tissue, muscle, and more types of cells, and the primitive body axes start to form. Studying this process in the human-specific context has posed significant challenges to biologists, but new research offers an unprecedented window into this point in time in human development.

 

A recent strategy to combat these challenges is to model embryo development using stem cell technologies, with many valuable approaches emerging from research groups across the globe. But embryos don’t grow in isolation and most previous developmental models have lacked crucial supporting tissues for embryonic growth. A groundbreaking model that includes both embryonic and extraembryonic components will allow researchers to study how these two parts interact around gastrulation stages—providing a unique look at the molecular and cellular processes that occur, and offering potential new insights into why pregnancies can fail as well as the origins of congenital disorders. The team, including Berna Sozen, PhD, and Zachary Smith, PhD, both assistant professors of genetics at Yale School of Medicine (YSM), published its findings in Nature on [tk].

 

“This work is extremely important as it provides an ethical approach to understand the earliest stages of human growth,” says Valentina Greco, PhD, the Carolyn Walch Slayman Professor of Genetics at YSM and incoming president-elect of the International Society for Stem Cell Research (ISSCR), who was not involved in the study. “This stem cell model provides an excellent alternative to start to understand aspects of our own early development that is normally hidden within the mother’s body.”

 

“The Sozen and Smith groups have achieved a milestone in developing in vitro models to study the earliest stages of human development that are unfeasible yet so important for understanding health and disease,” says Haifan Lin, PhD, the Eugene Higgins Professor of Cell Biology, director of the Yale Stem Cell Center, and president of ISSCR. “I commend their exceptional accomplishment as well as their sensitivity to ethical issues by limiting the model’s ability to develop further”

 

The ethical questions are profound, including whether these models have the potential to develop into human beings. Sozen, the principal investigator of the study, emphasizes that they do not. The published paper demonstrates that this model lacks trophectodermal cells, which are required for an embryo to implant in the uterus. Sozen says this model also represents a developmental stage beyond the time frame in which embryos can implant. “It is very important to focus on the fact that our model cannot grow further or implant and therefore is not considered a human embryo,” she says. But as a reductionist strategy to mimic and study aspects of natural development, its potential is immense, especially where universal guidelines severely limit scientists’ ability to study actual embryos.

 

New Model Contains Embryonic and Extraembryonic Tissues

 

All embryos have two components—embryonic and extraembryonic. The tissues we have now in our adult bodies grew from the embryonic component. The extraembryonic component includes the tissues that offer nutritional and other support, such as the placenta and yolk sac. The majority of previous embryo models of developmental stages around gastrulation were single-tissue models that only contained the embryonic component.

 

In the new study, the Yale-led team grew embryonic stem cells in vitro in the lab to generate their new model. They transferred these cells into a 3D culture system and exposed them to a conditions which stimulated the cells to spontaneously self-organize and differentiate. The cells diverged into two lineages—embryonic and extraembryonic precursors. The extraembryonic cells in this model were precursors for the yolk sac. The researchers grew these cellular lineages in the culture for approximately one week and analyzed how they guided each other as they developed. “We started looking into very mechanistic details, such as what signals they are giving each other and how specific genes are impacting one another,” says Sozen. “This has been limited in the literature previously.”

 

The Need for Models of Human Development

 

While researchers have learned a great deal from embryos of other species such as mouse, the lack of accessibility to human embryos has left significant knowledge gaps about our development. “If you want to understand human development, you need to look at the human system,” says Sozen. “This work is really important because it’s giving us direct information about our own species.” Not only does this model give access into the human gastrulation window, but will also allow for a greater quantity of research. The ability to generate as many as thousands of these models will allow for mass analysis that is not possible with human embryos. “I’m one scientist with one vision,” says Sozen. “But thinking about what other scientists are envisioning globally and what we can all accomplish is just really, really exciting to me.”

 

The new model has over 70% efficiency—in other words, the stem cells aggregate correctly over roughly 70% of the time. As noted by the authors, there are some limitations to the strategy, and it is challenging to benchmark some findings against the natural embryo itself. Sozen hopes to continue to work on the models so that they become more standardized in the future.

 

The team believes the models will transform scientists’ knowledge around human developmental biology. In their latest publication, the team explored some of the molecular paths underlying human gastrulation onset. In future studies, they hope to delve even deeper into the developmental pathways, including whether pregnancy loss and congenital disorders may stem from failures during gastrulation stages. Sozen believes her model can be used to look at some of these disorders and learn more about what is going awry. “Previous model systems have been able to look at this, but our model is unique because it has this extra tissue that allows us to analyze a bit deeper,” she says.  

UC Irvine scientists develop freely available risk model for hurricanes, tropical cyclones


The model could help countries around the world estimate storm impacts and costs


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - IRVINE




Irvine, Calif., June 27, 2023 — As human-driven climate change amplifies natural disasters, hurricanes and typhoons stand to increase in intensity. Until now, there existed very few freely available computer models designed to estimate the economic costs of such events, but a team of researchers led by Jane W. Baldwin at the University of California, Irvine recently announced the completion of an open-source model that stands to help countries with high tropical cyclone risks better calculate just how much those storms will impact their people and their economies.

“Tropical cyclones are some of the most impactful natural disasters on Earth. They pose huge risks to both human life and the built environment, so they have large economic costs associated with them and cause a lot of deaths,” said Baldwin, a professor in the UCI Department of Earth System Science and the lead author of the new paper in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society. “We need to be able to quantitatively explain their risk, meaning the probability of seeing different levels of losses.”

The economic risk model the team built extends an existing global tropical cyclone model, called the “Columbia tropical cyclone hazard” model. The economic risk model is prototyped for the Philippines but is straightforwardly customizable to any part of the world where stakeholders want to understand the storm risks they face.

Storms are called hurricanes when they form over the North Atlantic, typhoons when they form over the Northwest Pacific, and tropical cyclones when they form over in the Indian Ocean or South Pacific. 

The benefit of the new model is that countries that may not be able to afford access to other such risk models and associated vulnerability data, which typically belong to for-profit insurance companies that do not freely share their products or data, can get a clearer picture of the risks they face.

“That’s a strong motivation of the work, to expand the accessibility of tropical cyclone risk information,” said Baldwin.

It’s one reason why the country the team used as a case study in their research was the Philippines. That country, according to the researchers, faces among the highest number of landfalling tropical cyclones on Earth in any given year, but it is relatively less equipped when it comes to gauging the losses it may incur as a result.

The new model is unique in that it combines data from two disparate fields: climate change science from experts like Baldwin, and household vulnerability information acquired from data from the World Bank.

“Connecting these data is useful for people-focused disaster preparedness and response,” said Brian Walsh, an economist with the World Bank and an author on the new study. “That means rapid assistance to needful households, so that families can meet basic needs, children can return to schools, and communities can build back better.”

“What the model gives is return periods of asset losses, so that means total dollars lost from storms across different regions in the Philippines at different probabilities, at different levels of rarity,” said Baldwin. “There’s a pretty strong understanding that the strongest tropical cyclones should become more intense going into the future. But there’s still a lot of disagreement about how you go from that understanding to estimates of risk on the ground that are usable and help people constrain their adaptation needs.”

Beyond forecasting the monetary costs, the model can also help countries and even certain large municipalities to better prepare for a tropical cyclone by allowing them to understand exactly where they should spend time and resources preparing for such disasters. 

“There’s a growing need to be able to merge information from academic fields like climate science and these more applied risk modeling enterprises,” said Baldwin. “It’s a burgeoning field that I’m hoping will continue to develop over the next few years of catastrophe modeling as an academic enterprise and not just as a private enterprise. And I think climate change is really pushing the need for that dialogue.”

Joining Baldwin for this project were researchers from Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York; the World Bank in Washington, D.C.; and Columbia University in New York.

About the University of California, Irvine: Founded in 1965, UCI is a member of the prestigious Association of American Universities and is ranked among the nation’s top 10 public universities by U.S. News & World Report. The campus has produced five Nobel laureates and is known for its academic achievement, premier research, innovation, and anteater mascot. Led by Chancellor Howard Gillman, UCI has more than 36,000 students and offers 224-degree programs. It’s located in one of the world’s safest and most economically vibrant communities and is Orange County’s second-largest employer, contributing $7 billion annually to the local economy and $8 billion statewide. For more on UCI, visit www.uci.edu.

Media access: Radio programs/stations may, for a fee, use an on-campus ISDN line to interview UCI faculty and experts, subject to availability and university approval. For more UCI news, visit news.uci.edu. Additional resources for journalists may be found at communications.uci.edu/for-journalists.