Biden's push for electric cars alienates longtime union allies

• Nathan Bomey
• Joann Muller
• Joe Guillen

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

An emerging alignment between the United Auto Workers and former President Trump over electric vehicles threatens to sour the longstanding alliance between the union and the Democratic Party.

Why it matters: The UAW, representing more than 400,000 active workers, has long been a powerful force in progressive politics, serving as a Midwestern bulwark for Democrats.

• But about one in three UAW members voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, according to the organization's own polling.
• And while President Biden has touted his aggressive push toward electric cars as part of a major reinvestment in American manufacturing, many auto workers aren't on board.

State of play: The newly elected president of the UAW has struck a fiery tone, saying the administration is "actively funding the race to the bottom with billions in public money."

• UAW President Shawn Fain ripped the president after the Energy Department announced a $9.2 billion loan to Ford to build battery plants in the South.
• "Why is Joe Biden’s administration facilitating this corporate greed with taxpayer money?" Fain said in a statement.

The UAW is withholding an endorsement for Biden's 2024 campaign, after backing him in 2020.

• “We want to see national leadership have our back on this before we make any commitments," Fain wrote in a memo to members, first reported by The Detroit News.

The big picture: The UAW's first job, before deciding which political candidates to support, is to protect its members — and most of them are building gas-powered vehicles, which are gradually being phased out in favor of EVs.

• Fain worries EV factories won't employ as many people as traditional assembly plants because EVs are simpler to build, with fewer parts.
• Plus, the union is upset about the prospect of lower wages at new battery-making joint ventures with foreign partners without collective bargaining agreements.

The intrigue: Fain's attack last week on Biden's EV incentives came two days before Trump descended on Michigan — the heart of the UAW — and echoed Fain's criticisms, hoping to score points with worried autoworkers.

• Trump said the transition to EVs would lead to a "decimation" of Michigan's auto industry.
• "It’s going to be a level that people can’t even imagine," he added.

Context: It's not the first time Trump and the UAW have been aligned on policy.

• The union initially backed many of Trump's protectionist trade policies when he was president, including renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which they blamed for allowing U.S. manufacturing jobs to go to Mexico.

Reality check: There's no way the UAW will endorse Trump over Biden in 2024.

• “Another Donald Trump presidency would be a disaster,” Fain wrote in his letter to members.

What's next: The heightened political rhetoric comes as the UAW prepares to enter difficult labor negotiations with Detroit automakers next month.

Analysts and industry insiders say a strike is likely.

The other side: “The UAW is working toward the same goal as the President, which is to ensure the future of the auto industry is made here in America, with good-paying, union jobs," a White House spokesman said.

• "America’s auto workers are essential to achieving that goal. The most ‘pro-labor President ever’ is more than a slogan. It’s a critical part of the President’s effort to rebuild the middle class and empower workers as he ushers in this new American manufacturing boom.”
• Biden's re-election campaign, meanwhile, points to the historic early endorsements from the AFL-CIO and 17 others unions as proof of the president's pro-labor stance.

The bottom line: At a time when Democrats need the Midwest to preserve political power, the president's commitment to promoting EVs is testing his support among longtime allies.

America's surprising energy and climate views

• Andrew Freedman, author of Axios Generate

Data: Pew; Note: Includes those who say they lean Democratic or Republican. Renewable energy means increasing energy production from renewable sources and decreasing production from fossil fuels; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Americans aren't fully supportive of backing away from fossil fuels and are not yet sold on an all-electric vehicle future after 2035.

The big picture: Those findings are part of detailed new Pew Research Center polling. At the same time, the data shows a large majority of those surveyed favor taking steps to combat climate change and prioritizing renewable sources like solar and wind power.

Why it matters: The polling offers granular, policy-specific data on how Americans view the energy transition, potential benefits and downsides, and where applicable, how these opinions have changed over time.

Zoom in: Based on a survey of more than 10,000 adults conducted this spring, Pew found that 74% of Americans support U.S. efforts to reduce the effects of climate change, though support among Democrats was stronger than from Republicans.

• The poll reveals widespread support for limiting methane emissions by "having oil and gas companies seal off leaks from oil wells."
• It also found that a majority (or 61%) of Americans favor requiring power plants to eliminate their carbon emissions by 2040. The EPA announced proposed rules in May that would pursue a similar objective.

Yes, but: There's a limit to how far the public is willing to go. Only 31% of Americans favor completely phasing out fossil fuels like coal and natural gas.

• And 35% of Americans think the U.S. should never stop using fossil fuels for its energy needs.

Between the lines: The survey showed the clear differences between how Democrats and Republicans view the energy transition more broadly, and soft Democratic support for Biden's climate policies.

• Republicans and Republican-leaning independents think transitioning to renewable energy would raise consumer costs, while Democrats see more benefits.
• Although Republicans think America's energy priority should be expanding fossil fuels, 67% still favored a business tax credit for developing carbon capture technologies, and 70% said they support more solar panel farms. Wind garnered less support, at 60%.
• Among the majority of Democrats who think Biden's policies are headed in the right direction, 59% said he "could be doing a lot more on climate change."

The intrigue: When it comes to the push to deploy electric vehicles, only 40% favor phasing out the production of gas-powered cars and trucks starting in 2035, a drop of 7 percentage points from two years ago.

• Another question revealed skepticism that the U.S. will deploy a sufficient charging station infrastructure to support a switch to EVs — with even Democrats expressing a lack of confidence.
• Building a network of EV stations nationwide is a key White House climate policy goal.

Of note: The Pew poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

Meanwhile, more polling out Wednesday, this one from Yale and George Mason University, found that most of the registered voters surveyed had not heard "a lot" or even "some" of what was in the Biden administration's signature climate law.

• But, after reading a short description of it, 71% of registered voters supported it.