Viewpoint: Paying the costs of climate resilience

by Steve Cohen, State of the Planet

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

The transition to an environmentally sustainable economy has begun, but it will be a generation (about twenty years) before we will see moderation of global warming. The cost of reducing climate pollution faster would be an economic and political disaster. Slowing or shutting down economic growth would destabilize politics, and, given the rapidly advancing technology of arms and destruction, that instability would be more destructive than the impact of climate change.

The pace of the transition to a renewable resource-based economy depends on the development and adoption of new energy and waste processing technologies. It is difficult to predict how fast that process will be, but the sunk costs in existing technologies will only be discarded when new technologies are clearly better, cheaper, and more reliable than what they replace. The idea that climate pollution can be eliminated by political edict overestimates political power and underestimates economic power.

It is not simply powerful economic interests that influence public policy, but the sense of economic well-being perceived and experienced by the mass public. The maintenance of that sense of well-being is a critical foundation of political stability. The transition to a renewable resource-based economy must be careful to reinforce and not undermine that sense of well-being.

The fact that this transition will take time does not diminish our sense of urgency about its necessity, but it is important that we deal with the world that we live in rather than the one we might wish for.

This summer of fire, floods, and intense heat makes it clear that decarbonization must accelerate. But our work on protecting our communities from the impact of extreme weather events is even more urgent. While there continues to be discussion of "managed retreat" from low-lying areas vulnerable to flooding, the widespread geography of extreme weather indicates that you can run but you can't hide from climate impacts.

Perhaps we should move from the Jersey shore to the Green Mountains of Vermont: Oops, that won't work, Vermont just got hit with two months' worth of rain in a few days. Perhaps we could move to small towns in the Midwest: Nope, they've got those tornadoes along with overflowing rivers as well. Maybe we should move out west near the forests: Oh yeah, drought and electrical sparks are causing massive fires. Forget retreat, managed or under conditions of panic, we need to build a stronger and more resilient built environment.

And the need is urgent. Drainage systems, dams, buildings, transportation, and energy systems must be built to withstand the rains, wind, heat, and cold of climate-accelerated extreme weather events. The impact of extreme weather is massive and growing. According to Christopher Flavelle of the New York Times:

"Weather-related disasters pushed more than 3.3 million American adults out of their homes in 2022, census data shows. Of those, at least 1.2 million people were out of their homes for at a month or longer; more than half a million of them never returned, fueling a growing diaspora of domestic climate refugees."

Flavelle reports that we are not helpless to prevent damage from extreme weather:

"Technologies exist to protect homes against severe weather—but those innovations have been slow to seep into mainstream homebuilding, leaving most Americans increasingly exposed to climate shocks, experts say… Houses made from steel and concrete can be more resilient to heat, wildfire and storms. Even traditional wood-framed homes can be constructed in ways that greatly reduce the odds of severe damage from hurricanes or flooding. But the costs of added resiliency can be about 10 percent higher than conventional construction."

A climate-resilient built environment is going to cost money. Lots of money. And that means we will need to pay for those upgrades out of money that we'd rather use elsewhere but must be induced to spend on these protective measures. Government must lead with upgrades to public infrastructure such as roads, bridges, ports, dams, train tracks, and airports.

Taxes on income, sales, transportation, and tolls will need to rise to pay for these improvements. The anti-government forces controlling the U.S. House of Representatives are unlikely to be helpful here, and so we will need Mayors and Governors around the country to take the lead.

Here in New York, the state and city government are both taking action. Hilary Howard of the New York Times reported that the state has budgeted over $1.1 billion for flood control but wonders if it is enough. According to Howard's report:

"Catastrophic rainfall caused overwhelming floods in parts of the Hudson Valley and elsewhere in the country this week, leading New York officials like Gov. Kathy Hochul to warn of extreme weather that would be 'our new normal.' New York City's chief climate officer, Rohit T. Aggarwala, gave an even more dire warning, saying that 'the weather is changing faster than our infrastructure can keep up.' Thousands of projects are in the works across the state to combat the effects of climate change, including rethinking flood-resistant housing, updating weather models and racing to manage overflow rain. But many will take decades to complete, and there are concerns over whether it will be enough."

But clearly, New York state and city are working hard to reduce climate risk. In concert with government, the private sector also has a critical part to play in reducing the costs of climate risk. Insurance companies can play a central role by requiring building owners to meet higher standards of resistance to floods, fire, and wind to purchase insurance. Owners who meet these higher standards should be given a discount on the insurance they buy. Insurance companies have a clear self-interest in reducing the cost of climate risk. They should work to play a role in convincing property owners to invest in resilience measures. There is ample precedent for this. When buildings first began to electrify at the end of the 19th century, fire insurance companies supported William Henry Merrill's Underwriters Lab, which tested and certified the safety of equipment used in buildings ranging from refrigerators to boilers. Insurance companies required the use of these approved devices before they would agree to sell you building insurance.

Today, some insurance companies are abandoning high-risk states like Florida and California. These insurers are unwilling to take the risk involved in insuring homes in climate-threatened places. Just as government had to assume the risk of flood insurance, we may eventually see that in home insurance as well. Homeowners holding mortgages are typically required to carry insurance, and government and insurance companies will need to work together to require more storm-resistant construction and retrofits. Otherwise, the cost of insurance will become prohibitive.

Government may well need to play the role of reinsurer in climate-threatened areas because private reinsurers may be unwilling to take on the financial burden of insuring insurers. You will find no climate deniers in the insurance and reinsurance industry. As Sean Baldwin and David Coon observed in Risk Management Magazine last summer:

"It is no secret that climate change is having a serious impact on the insurance market, affecting industry participants from the level of primary insurance all the way up to insurance-linked securities (ILS) and retrocessional reinsurance. With severe catastrophe events increasing in both frequency and severity as global temperatures and sea levels rise, industry participants have faced rapidly increasing exposure to severe catastrophe losses."

"For instance, one Moody's study found that more than 70% of global insured wildfire losses between 1980 and 2018 occurred between 2016 and 2018 alone. This dramatic increase in catastrophe risks poses challenges for every level of the insurance industry. For buyers of primary insurance, the changing nature of catastrophe risks results in increased premium rates from insurers who face not only increased insured losses, but also increased loss adjustment expenses tied to more frequent coverage disputes…. These changing risks, increased volatility and increased reinsurance demand will result in increased costs for reinsurance buyers."

As insurers and reinsurers find the risks growing, they are charging more to insure property, or simply refusing to do business. Lenders will not lend capital to businesses in uninsurable locations or will charge so much interest that borrowing is not practical. All of this could lead to a damaged business environment in climate-threatened regions.

The alternative to this risk-induced death spiral is to develop a built environment that is more capable of resisting catastrophic destruction. We've seen this in earthquake zones where stricter building codes enable structures to survive quakes with only minor damage. Buildings need to be constructed to survive forest fires, floods, and high winds. Towns and cities need to make sure they can handle the drainage needs of five inches of rain in a couple of hours. We can build more resilient structures if we are willing to pay the price.

We have entered an era of extreme weather, and we need to invest the massive resources required to survive weather impacts. One danger of this extreme focus on climate adaptation is that it might deemphasize the importance of reducing climate pollution. That would be a mistake because the planet could still get warmer, causing even greater damage.

I suspect that the political dynamic caused by these weather disasters will lead to greater understanding of the need to decarbonize our economy. Most people understand the growing intensity of floods, fire, droughts, and heat are impacts of climate change and are starting to see that we need to attack both causes and impacts.

The technologies that we rely on have made the world more comfortable, exciting, stimulating, and dangerous. We need to take these dangers seriously, and that requires reinforcing our homes as well as investment in the collective body we call government. We need policies, rules, and resources to ensure that the costs of our technological world do not exceed the benefits. Protection costs money.

In America we have the wealth to protect ourselves, what we lack is the political will to act. Conspiracy theories and fact-free social media rantings continue to clog our political discourse and make it difficult to address real dangers. Sadly, it takes floods, heat, and fire to convince people about the reality of our polluted planet. That growing awareness now needs to stimulate action.

Provided by State of the Planet

This story is republished courtesy of Earth Institute, Columbia University http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu.

Study says insurance industry dangerously unprepared for extreme weather

 

NASA's first new wind tunnel in 40 years will turn science fiction to fact

by Katrina Dix

Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

Flying cars. Space tourism. Safe reentry for astronauts coming back from Mars.

These technologies are still science fiction, but some won't be for much longer, according to Charles "Mike" Fremaux, NASA Langley Research Center's chief engineer for intelligent flight systems.

To test these concepts, particularly in regard to public and military safety, NASA Langley is building its first new wind tunnel in over 40 years. The NASA Flight Dynamic Research Facility, a project Fremaux has been pursuing for 25 years, will replace two smaller wind tunnels that are around 80 years old. The center's most recent and largest, the National Transonic Facility, was built in 1980.

"These facilities are really kind of tailor-made for doing a lot of that work," he said at a presentation at the Virginia Air & Space Science Center in Hampton on Tuesday. The talk was part of NASA Langley's Sigma Series community lectures.

"That's not our traditional wheelhouse. We haven't tested anything with a propeller on it in decades."

That's because many new craft will depend on electric vertical takeoff and landing, or "eVTOL," technology. With likely dozens or even hundreds of private vehicles in the airways, research is needed to understand how vehicles will react in real-world conditions.

Fremaux expects some of these technologies will likely be mainstream by 2040 or sooner.

The $43.2 million federal government contract to design and build the 25,000-square-foot facility went to BL Harbert International, a construction company based in Birmingham, Alabama. It is expected to open in early 2025.

The wind tunnel will be 130 feet tall, Fremaux said, comparing its capabilities to those it will replace: The 12-foot, Low-Speed Spin Tunnel built in 1939 and the 20-foot, Vertical Spin Tunnel built in 1940.

One project he worked on using the center's other wind tunnels—there are currently around 16 operating, Fremaux said—was the Stardust Mission in 2006, the first spacecraft to bring back material from outside the moon's orbit.

Without parachute technology developed at NASA Langley, it wouldn't have been possible to recover samples from that mission, Fremaux said.

Now, along with testing the next generation of commercial, earthbound aviation, the Flight Dynamics Research Facility will provide experimental support for entry, descent and landing of missions returning from the moon and Mars, as well as exploration of Venus and Titan, a moon of Saturn.

The research will support human space exploration, contributing to the possibility of safe landing and reentry on a human mission to Mars.

The research will be similar to some NASA Langley has performed for nearly 100 years as public and private air traffic went from hard-to-imagine to hard-to-imagine-life-without, Fremaux said.

The tunnel will provide safeguards not just to the public, but for the technicians who work there.

"How are the models going to be launched and retrieved?" audience member Ronald Hermansderfer, 89, asked, referring to small, free-flying scale models.

"The plan is to do that just like we do now; a very skilled technician is going to launch the models by hand. That's not a joke," Fremaux said to murmurs from the audience. "That's true, and we have one right here, now retired, who did it for many years. So I know that was a loaded question."

Fremaux recognized Hermansderfer, who worked at the center as a technician from 1983 to 2002. Hermansderfer's job was dangerous; if someone opened the wrong door elsewhere in the facility, affecting the pressure differential, a technician could be sucked into the wind tunnel while launching a model.

The new system will have a pressure equalization system, Fremaux said.

After the talk, Hermansderfer said that, as a kid, he used to set paper airplanes on fire and throw them out of windows. He did something remarkably similar in the testing tunnels at Langley. But it never really occurred to him he was in danger.

His son—also named Ronald Hermansderfer and also retired from NASA Langley—laughed.

"Maybe they just didn't tell you," he said.

©2023 The Virginian-Pilot.

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

NASA to reveal crew for 2024 flight around the Moon

 

Is fast fashion slowing down? How global trade is being used as a 'force for good'

by University of Southern California

Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

In the world of fast fashion, where trends are born as quickly as they are discarded, global trade regulations have struggled to keep pace with relentless cycles of production and consumption.

In attempting to meet the demands of this fast-paced sector, global trade has historically failed to address the troubling reality hiding behind the industry's glamorous façade: a supply chain tainted by human rights abuses and forced labor.

But experts say that's changing.

In 2022, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security began enforcing the standards for manufacturing and trade under the Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act to crack down on Asian goods that U.S. officials suspect are the product of forced labor by imprisoned ethnic minorities. Those include the Uyghurs, whose maltreatment has been extensively documented.

The United States has banned a large number of garment imports from Vietnam, a major exporter of textiles. Companies there were found to be sourcing materials, including cotton, from manufacturers in China that the U.S. government believes violated trade and labor standards.

"We have a calling to use trade as a force for good, advocating for fairness creating real opportunity for all of our people," said U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai at a "Dean's Dialogue" with USC Marshall Dean Geoffrey Garrett at Town and Gown on the University Park Campus in May.

"There are substantial challenges in the relationship," said Tai, referring to the U.S. and China. "The People's Republic of China's growth and development over the last few decades have been phenomenal, but the impacts, and especially the negative impacts on other economies—including ours—are having consequences that we cannot ignore."

Under scrutiny, brands confront the human cost of fast fashion

"The fast fashion industry openly admits to creating disposable products with no apologies. But it's crucial to include labor in the definition of sustainability because people are an integral part of our environment," said Annalisa Enrile, a teaching professor of social work at the USC Suzanne Dworak-Peck School of Social Work.

Shein, the world's largest online fashion retailer, has faced repeated backlash for suspected labor and human rights abuses in its supply chains, particularly the use of materials produced by imprisoned Uyghurs in China's Xinjiang region. U.S. lawmakers have called for investigations and potential tariffs, further complicating Shein's rumored plans to go public. The brand has since relocated its headquarters from Nanjing, China, to Singapore and invested in massive PR campaigns—including extravagant influencer factory tours in China— to clean up its image.

Enrile—an expert in global justice, human trafficking and exploitative labor—sheds light on the plight of migrants and child laborers, who constitute a significant portion of the global labor force. The International Labor Organization estimates that there are over 170 million migrant workers worldwide, nearly half of whom are women.

"Anywhere you have large-scale migration, you will also have a higher rate of labor exploitation. These countries often have export processing zones where factories are built with different laws and standards to attract businesses. It's a massive scope, with thousands of people migrating for labor every day, leading to entire villages in developing countries without women," Enrile said.

Gender-based violence and harassment in the fashion industry are well-documented, primarily driven by male factory owners and supervisors who enforce unreasonable production targets imposed by fashion brands. Some employers resort to coercive measures, including pressuring female workers to vow to not become pregnant, denying maternity leave and terminating pregnant employees.

Meanwhile, conservative estimates from the International Labor Organization show that South Asia, a major hub for the world's garment exports, is home to approximately 16.7 million children aged 5-17 engaged in child labor, with 10.3 million falling within the 5-14 age range. Children between the ages of 5 and 11 represent around one-fifth of all child laborers in South Asia.

However, Enrile pointed out that it is difficult to quantify and understand the full extent of child labor globally due to variations in its definition across countries. For example, in Vietnam, the age of employment is 15. In Bangladesh the legal age is technically 14, but children as young as 12 are allowed to engage in loosely defined "light work."

Empowered consumers drive fashion toward social responsibility

In today's ever-evolving landscape, the rise of conscious consumerism has become a game-changer. With a heightened awareness of the profound environmental and social consequences of their decisions, consumers are exerting immense pressure on fashion brands to revolutionize their supply and labor practices. The demand is clear: align with sustainability, embrace social responsibility and embody unwavering ethical values.

"The accessibility of information has brought to light the ethical concerns around product sourcing. We're seeing a preference for not just fair trade, but direct trade and more conscious and socially aware consumerism," said Elizabeth Currid-Halkett, the James Irvine chair in urban and regional planning and professor of public policy at the USC Price School of Public Policy.

Consumers value the origin of products, showing a preference for goods hailing from regions known for their quality, Currid-Halkett explained. An example of this is the resurgence in American manufacturing, especially the "Made in the U.S." movement prominent in high-end denim and loungewear such as T-shirts and sweatshirts.

"It holds great importance for the American economy as it reflects a sense of social consciousness around our purchasing decisions. When a product is made in the U.S., made in L.A. or made in Brooklyn, part of its appeal lies in knowing where it comes from and who is making it," she said.

The trend is gaining traction among a much larger consumer base, she added. While high-income consumers initially had the means to pay for these types of goods, ethically sourced clothing is becoming increasingly more accessible amid growing sensitivity toward climate change and social justice.

"The industry's pursuit of the best version of a product extends beyond luxury; it encompasses a balance between quality and affordability. This shift in consumer mindset is reshaping our nations' industries as they seek out the people, countries and places that produce the best versions of various products," Currid-Halkett said.

The future of fashion—and supply chain transparency—is digital

Companies have already begun leveraging the power of emerging technologies, such as generative AI and mixed reality, to bolster their marketing strategies. Through robust e-commerce platforms, they provide personalized recommendations driven by AI algorithms. virtual reality and augmented reality technologies enable virtual try-ons and immersive shopping experiences.

But this expanding digital toolkit also presents opportunities for enhancing transparency and accountability across even the most complex supply chains.

Nick Vyas, an associate professor at the USC Marshall School of Business and an expert in global supply chain management, sees great promise in artificial intelligence to revolutionize business processes within the global fashion industry.

Through generative AI, retailers and manufacturers can track inventory using RFID tags and IoT sensors, ensuring better visibility throughout their clothing supply chains. AI-powered decision-making can help companies select suppliers based on their performance, certificates, and historical and real-time data, ensuring ethical sourcing practices.

"Beyond the quest for lucrative expansion in new and existing foreign markets, the industry must redefine its success parameters. We must transition from a single bottom-line approach to a triple bottom line that includes profit, people, and the planet," Vyas said.

"The prevailing economic headwinds should accelerate our investment in emerging technologies that enhance efficiency and promote sustainability. As we navigate these tumultuous times, the key to resilience lies not in resisting change but in embracing it," he said.

"Change requires a collective commitment to transparency, both in our own actions and in the systems that govern us," Enrile added. "Just as we have made strides towards environmental sustainability, we must apply the same dedication to human rights."

Provided by University of Southern California 

Australia's cotton farmers can help prevent exploitation in the global garment industry

 

What do bats, priests and rabbis have in common? Network analysis reveals insights

by Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

Inter-religious literary networks. 

Credit: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (2023). 

DOI: 10.1057/s41599-023-01678-y

It could almost be the start of a joke: What do bats, priests and rabbis have in common? The answer: Their social networks can be traced using a new computer science tool called network analysis.

Prof. Michal Bar-Asher Siegal, a Talmud scholar from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, and Prof. Yossi Yovel, a zoologist from Tel Aviv University, are not an obvious pairing. However, Prof. Yovel is an expert in network analysis, which he uses to research bats. Together with Prof. Bar-Asher Siegal they had the radical idea to apply his methodologies to examine Judeo-Christian relations in the literature from the early first centuries CE.

Their proof of concept was published in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications.

Using passages from the Babylonian Talmud and Christian texts from the first to sixth centuries, which Prof. Bar-Asher Siegal had previously analyzed, they performed the first network analysis of textual parallels of Christian writings and Jewish sources.

"Our study shows that network analysis of textual parallels using the tools of computer science yield wondrous results. We believe it will really open up the study of relations between the two religions in the beginning of the common era. It has already yielded new insights when applied to our small sample of texts. Who knows what exciting discoveries await when we analyze larger amounts of text," says Prof. Bar-Asher Siegal.

"This is a good example of how interdisciplinarity and the use of tools from one scientific field can enrich another," adds Prof. Yovel.

While network analysis is not new in the field of digital humanities, it is new to the study of rabbinic and Christian literary interactions. This is the first time an automated analysis of textual parallels was accomplished, according to the researchers.

One of the fascinating benefits of this novel approach is the visualization of the relationships between Jewish and Christian writings to represent sets of temporal-spatial-contextual relationships, which evolved over hundreds of years, in single snapshots.

"The visualizations allow us both to get a clearer picture of the interactions and look at them in new ways, which prompted new insights," explains Prof. Bar-Asher Siegal.

The evolution of relations between Judaism and Christianity has often been characterized as a "parting of the ways" where, after a specific point, the two religions began to develop independently. While recent scholarly research has challenged that idea, these new visualizations really bring to light how the two religions developed in parallel and in dialog, not separately.

"The application of network analysis makes it possible to identify the most influential texts—that is, the key 'nodes'—testifying to the importance of certain traditions for both religious communities. What did the Jews know? The New Testament or later sources? And which parts of the New Testament? This leads to interesting scholarly questions: why these texts and not others? How did they know and how did they react to this knowledge?" explains Prof. Bar-Asher Siegal.

"The networks we created reveal that rabbinic sources mock and argue against early Christian sources, but less so when it comes to later ones. Moreover, network analysis suggests a correlation between text, time, and geography. Namely, Jewish sources are familiar with early, eastern Christian sources, BUT they show wider geographical familiarity with both eastern and western Christian sources in later periods," according to Prof. Bar-Asher Siegal.

More information: Michal Bar-Asher Siegal et al, Network analysis reveals insights about the interconnections of Judaism and Christianity in the first centuries CE, Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (2023). DOI: 10.1057/s41599-023-01678-y

Provided by Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

Opinion: Nonbinary genders beyond 'male' and 'female' would have been no surprise to ancient rabbis

Deadly flooding hit several countries at once. Scientists say this will only be more common

by ISABELLA O'MALLEY, BRITTANY PETERSON and DREW COSTLEY
A partially submerged car is visible in floodwaters after heavy rains in Zonguldak, Turkey, July 10, 2023. Scientists say increasingly frequent and intense storms could unleash more rainfall in the future as the atmosphere warms and holds more moisture. Credit: Dia Images via AP, File

Extreme rainfall accompanied by deadly flooding hit the United States and several other countries over the weekend and last week.

There were several dozen fatalities in central and southern regions of South Korea, including the Chongju region where an underpass flooded and drowned motorists who became trapped in their submerged vehicles.

In the U.S., flooding claimed five lives in Upper Makefield Township, Pennsylvania, where a search is ongoing for two missing children. Flooding also struck parts of New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York and New Jersey this past weekend. A state of emergency was declared in New Jersey by Gov. Phil Murphy following significant damage from flooding and landslides.

This follows last week's relentless flooding in India, Japan, China, Turkey and the U.S.

Although the destructive floods are occurring in different parts of the world, atmospheric scientists say they have this in common: With climate change, storms are forming in a warmer atmosphere, making extreme rainfall a more frequent reality now. The additional warming that scientists predict is coming will only make it worse.

That's because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which results in storms dumping more precipitation that can have deadly outcomes. Pollutants, especially carbon dioxide and methane, are heating up the atmosphere. Instead of allowing heat to radiate away from Earth into space, they hold onto it.

A car is buried in mud and rocks from recent flooding, Monday, July 17, 2023, in Belvidere, N.J. Scientists say increasingly frequent and intense storms could unleash more rainfall in the future as the atmosphere warms and holds more moisture. Credit: AP Photo/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez

While climate change is not the cause of storms unleashing the rainfall, these storms are forming in an atmosphere that is becoming warmer and wetter.

"Sixty-eight degrees Fahrenheit can hold twice as much water as 50 degrees Fahrenheit," said Rodney Wynn, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay. "Warm air expands and cool air contracts. You can think of it as a balloon—when it's heated the volume is going to get larger, so therefore it can hold more moisture."

For every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) that the atmosphere warms, it holds approximately 7% more moisture. According to NASA, the average global temperature has increased by at least 1.1 degrees Celsius (1.9 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1880.



"When a thunderstorm develops, water vapor gets condensed into rain droplets and falls back down to the surface. So as these storms form in warmer environments that have more moisture in them, the rainfall increases," explained Brian Soden, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami.

A rescue worker with a dog searches for people at the site of a landslide caused by heavy rain in Yecheon, South Korea, July 16, 2023. Scientists say increasingly frequent and intense storms could unleash more rainfall in the future as the atmosphere warms and holds more moisture. Credit: Yun Kwan-shick/Yonhap via AP, File

Along Turkey's mountainous and scenic Black Sea coast, heavy rains swelled rivers and damaged cities with flooding and landslides.

At least 15 people were killed by flooding in another mountainous region, in southwestern China.

"As the climate gets warmer we expect intense rain events to become more common, it's a very robust prediction of climate models," Soden added. "It's not surprising to see these events happening, it's what models have been predicting ever since day one."

Gavin Schmidt, climatologist and director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said the regions being hit hardest by climate change are not the ones that emit the largest amount of planet-warming pollutants.

"The bulk of the emissions have come from the industrial Western nations and the bulk of the impacts are happening in places that don't have good infrastructure, that are less prepared for weather extremes and have no real ways to manage this," said Schmidt.

Kathy Eason, a worker at the Center for Highland Falls, stands on the storefront's stoop where she had been trapped by floodwaters the previous day, July 10, 2023, in Highland Falls, N.Y. Credit: AP Photo/John Minchillo, File

People wade through a street due to a heavy rain in Kurume, Fukuoka prefecture, southern Japan on July 10, 2023. Scientists say increasingly frequent and intense storms could unleash more rainfall in the future as the atmosphere warms and holds more moisture. Credit: Kyodo News via AP, File

People are transferred by boat as a residential area is flooded due to heavy rain in Akita, northern Japan, July 15, 2023. Scientists say increasingly frequent and intense storms could unleash more rainfall in the future as the atmosphere warms and holds more moisture. Credit: Kyodo News via AP, File

People walk through a bridge across River Beas swollen due to heavy rains in Kullu District, Himachal Pradesh, India, July 10, 2023. Scientists say increasingly frequent and intense storms could unleash more rainfall in the future as the atmosphere warms and holds more moisture. Credit: AP Photo/Aqil Khan, File

Workers cross roadway impacted by recent storms and flooding, Monday, July 17, 2023, in Belvidere, N.J. Credit: AP Photo/Eduardo Munoz Alvarez

A man looks at a swollen Beas River following heavy rains in Kullu, Himachal Pradesh, India, July 9, 2023. Scientists say increasingly frequent and intense storms could unleash more rainfall in the future as the atmosphere warms and holds more moisture. Credit: AP Photo/Aqil Khan, 

In last week's flooding, schools in New Delhi were forced to close on July 10 after heavy monsoon rains battered the Indian capital, with landslides and flash floods killing at least 15 people. Farther north, the overflowing Beas River swept vehicles downstream as it flooded neighborhoods.

In Japan, torrential rain pounded the southwest, causing floods and mudslides that left two people dead and at least six others missing. Local TV showed damaged houses in Fukuoka prefecture and muddy water from the swollen Yamakuni River appearing to threaten a bridge in the town of Yabakei.

In Ulster County, in New York's Hudson Valley and in Vermont, some said the flooding is the worst they've seen since Hurricane Irene's devastation in 2011.

© 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

Explore further  Deadly flooding hits several countries, scientists said this will be increasingly common

WHEN THE CHURCH BANNED ABORTION

New findings suggest historical infanticide in Europe likely more widespread than estimated

New study examines selective infanticide within European communities as a means of controlling resources and social status in Italy, France and England

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TAYLOR & FRANCIS GROUP

‘Routine’ infanticide of newborns by married parents in early modern Europe was a much more widespread practice than previously thought, a new book posits.

This fresh insight sits at the heart of a new book, Death Control in the West 1500–1800: Sex Ratios at Baptism in Italy, France and England, by Gregory Hanlon and contributors.

The French-trained behavioural historian explains: “In most cases, infanticide was a crime leaving no aggrieved party seeking revenge if it was committed right away. It could be overlooked and forgotten with the passage of time.”

Widespread infanticide

Hanlon, who is Distinguished Research Professor at Dalhousie University in Canada, calls attention to the limited scope of existing scholarship, which has never focused on sex ratios of infants brought for baptism within hours or days after their birth.

These records reveal startling spikes in the number of male baptisms in the aftermath of famines or diseases.

He notes: “Historians in the West have relied almost exclusively on records of criminal trials in which unwed mothers or married women carrying progeny not sired by their husbands hid their pregnancies and killed their newborns alone or with female accomplices. Married infanticidal mothers may have been a hundred times more numerous.”

Hanlon’s research suggests that in rural Tuscany at the height of infanticide the victims might have constituted up to a third of the total number of live births.

Beyond the lone woman perpetrator

Using baptismal registers and ecclesiastical censuses drawn from scores of parishes in Italy, France and England, Hanlon shows similar infanticide patterns across city and country, for Catholics, Calvinists and Anglicans alike.

In Italy’s rural 17th century Tuscany, Hanlon suggests that parents seemed willing to sacrifice a child if they were a twin, opting to keep just one of the newborns. In the north Italian city of Parma, Laura Hynes Jenkins found that working-class parents preferred girls over boys.

Contributor Dominic J. Rossi finds a clear pattern of a preference for girls in the French town of Villeneuve-sur-Lot after 1650.

Rossi – one of the five former students who contributes to the book – posits the idea that ‘the lower-status families would want to marry their daughters up at the same time as economic conditions allowed them to make long-term plans for social movement’.

Meanwhile Evan Johnson, another contributor, finds evidence to demonstrate that upper-class parents in rural Mézin showed a clear preference for keeping newborn males.

Infanticide within the contemporary

Death Control in the West 1500-1800 shines a light on the many infants whose existence went unrecorded and whose deaths remained unpunished.

Hanlon calls attention to lax punitive measures taken for crimes of infanticide, and notes: “Tribunals operated against single mothers almost exclusively, but only if they killed the newborn deliberately. Simple abandonment was not a comparable offense.”

The roles of the state and criminal justice system are rigorously examined in the study, alongside realities of poverty and social class structures. The book draws parallels between histories of infanticide and present discussions of reproductive rights.

“Infanticide is murder, of course, but people did not consider this murder to be a crime,” explains Hanlon, who says ‘most people could live with it as an unpleasant fact of life’.

Together, Hanlon and his contributors invite readers to reckon with infanticide beyond a moralistic approach, in order to understand the social practice’s ramifications for our present times.

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DOI

10.4324/9781003289784 

Climate change fostered rise and fall of the Tibetan Empire during 600-800 AD

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

 

IMAGE: THE VARVES OF JIANGCO ARE ANNUAL VARVES, EACH LAYER DIVIDED INTO COARSE-GRAINED AND FINE-GRAINED SUB-LAYERS view more 

CREDIT: ©SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

This study is led by Dr. Juzhi Hou, Dr. Fahu Chen, and Dr. Kejia Ji (Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation (ALPHA), State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Resources and Environment (TPESRE), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences). The research team obtained a high-resolution climate record of the past 2000 years using the varved sediments of Lake JiangCo on the central Tibetan Plateau. The warm and humid climate during the 7th-9th centuries AD and the subsequent cold and aridification are consistent with the rise and fall of the Tibetan Empire. Climate change is one of the possible reasons for the rise and fall of the Tibetan Empire.

During the preliminary field investigation, the researchers found that the varved sediment in JiangCo, a lake on the central Tibetan Plateau, was well-preserved. Through earlier varve counting and other radiometric dating methods, the time range of a gravity core of up to 1 meter covering the past 2000 years was determined. Subsequently, high-resolution XRF elements scanning and carbonate carbon/oxygen isotope analysis were performed on the sediment, and the temperature and precipitation records for the past 2000 years were reconstructed using biomarkers such as alkenones. The results showed that the 7th-9th centuries AD was an unusually warm and humid period. The researchers compared this period with historical literatures and found that it coincided with the only unified local regime, the Tibetan Empire, which existed on the Tibetan Plateau at that time. The changes in warm and humid climate and cold and dry climate were highly correlated with the foreign policy changes of the Tibetan Empire. Combined with the ecological niche model, the researchers simulated the area of highland barley cultivation during the warm and humid period of the 7th-9th centuries AD and the subsequent cold and dry period, which differed by about 10.88 million hectares.

The element titanium is an allothigenic element that reflects changes in precipitation. The dry and wet periods reflected by titanium are highly consistent with the timing of historical events such as the treaties and wars of the Tibetan Empire.

CREDIT

©Science China Press

On the ecologically fragile environment of the Tibetan Plateau, climate change is one of the factors that constrains human activities. This latest research results show that warm and humid climates promote the development of agriculture and animal husbandry on the plateau, while cold and arid conditions have negative effects on agriculture and animal husbandry. Climate change played a important role in the rise and fall of the Tibetan Empire. Today, with the warming and humidification of the Tibetan Plateau, studying the human-environment interactions in the past has important implications for modern responses to climate change.

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JOURNAL

Science Bulletin

DOI

10.1016/j.scib.2023.04.040 

Heading frequency and risk of cognitive impairment in retired male professional soccer players

JAMA Network Open

Peer-Reviewed Publication

JAMA NETWORK

About The Study: The findings of this study suggest that repetitive heading during a professional soccer career is associated with an increased risk of cognitive impairment in later life. Further study is needed to establish the upper threshold for heading frequency to mitigate this risk. 

Authors: Weiya Zhang, Ph.D., of the University of Nottingham in Nottingham, United Kingdom, is the corresponding author. 

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/ 

(doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.23822)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

 http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.23822?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=071723

About JAMA Network Open: JAMA Network Open is an online-only open access general medical journal from the JAMA Network. On weekdays, the journal publishes peer-reviewed clinical research and commentary in more than 40 medical and health subject areas. Every article is free online from the day of publication.

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JOURNAL

JAMA Network Open

Addressing the future challenges of global surface water quality

Sub-Saharan Africa as the key future hotspot

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHT FACULTEIT GEOWETENSCHAPPEN

As the world's population continues to grow, ensuring access to clean and safe water has become an increasingly important concern, yet little is known about how surface water quality will change in the future. Recent scientific research has shed light on the potential challenges that surface water quality may face in the coming years, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. “While surface water quality is projected to improve in most developed countries, there is an important caveat: the outlook for the poorest nations is bleak”. 

A recent study, published in Nature Water, has projected an increase in surface water pollution in Sub-Saharan Africa. These findings highlight the need for proactive measures to protect surface water resources and safeguard the well-being of communities. The study, led by Utrecht University researcher Edward Jones, emphasizes the importance of equitable and sustainable development, particularly in regions expected to experience the greatest challenges. Using a new global model, he assessed how climate change and societal developments could impact surface water quality until the end of the century.

Key hotspot

“Irrespective of climate change and socio-economic scenario, there will be a strong increase in the number of people living in Sub-Saharan Africa who are exposed to poor surface water quality”, warns Jones. “This pattern is not systematically replicated in any other world region.” Even under the most optimistic future scenario the number of people exposed to pollutant concentrations exceedances in Sub-Saharan Africa will more than double. Alternatively, under pessimistic assumptions, the number of people exposed to poor surface water quality can increase 5-fold. “With the combination of strong water quality degradation and the drastic increases in the number of people exposed to poor surface water quality, our paper concludes that Sub-Saharan Africa will become the key hotspot of surface water pollution in the future.”

Challenges

The challenges are multifold, according to Jones. Waterborne diseases caused by pathogen-contaminated water can pose a significant risk to human populations. With a growing global population, the availability of good quality water for irrigation is of utmost importance. Additionally, energy production, which is key for global development, can be hampered by a combination of both low water levels and high water temperatures. Thus, the study highlights the importance of limiting both climate change and anthropogenic water pollution to safeguard both human livelihoods and ecosystem health in the future.

Article

Edward R. Jones, Marc F.P. Bierkens, Peter J.T.M. van Puijenbroek (...), Michelle T.H. van Vliet, ‘Sub-Saharan Africa will increasingly become the dominant hotspot of surface water pollution’, Nature Water, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00105-5 (after lift of embargo)

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JOURNAL

Nature Water

DOI

10.1038/s44221-023-00105-5 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Sub-Saharan Africa will increasingly become the dominant hotspot of surface water pollution

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

17-Jul-2023