Wednesday, July 19, 2023

China Evergrande Posts Losses of $81 Billion Over Two Years
CHINESE CAPITALI$M STILL CAPITALI$M

Bloomberg News
Mon, July 17, 2023 



(Bloomberg) -- China Evergrande Group posted combined losses of more than $81 billion over two years as the world’s most-indebted developer releases its long-delayed results in a bid to resume stock trading and complete one of the country’s biggest debt restructurings.

The company reported a loss attributable to shareholders of 105.9 billion yuan ($14.8 billion) for the full year in 2022, adding to a 476 billion yuan loss the previous year, according to Hong Kong stock exchange filings late Monday.

The results underscore how much Evergrande has struggled amid a housing crisis that has rocked the world’s second-largest economy over the past two years after the government restricted borrowing by developers and consumers curbed home purchases. The earnings marked the company’s first two full-year losses since its 2009 listing.

Creditor Seeks Bankruptcy Of Evergrande Real Estate Group's Xian Unit

Evergrande’s revenue plunged by half in 2021 to about 250 billion yuan, before falling further last year to 230 billion yuan, largely missing the average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. While the loss narrowed last year from 2021, it represented a sharp reversal from a profit of almost 8 billion yuan in 2020.

The developers’ debt pile meanwhile has soared, with total liabilities reaching 2.58 trillion yuan at the end of 2021, or almost $360 billion. That figure fell slightly to 2.44 trillion yuan as of December last year.

The results give offshore bondholders something more to digest as they consider the company’s debt restructuring proposal. Evergrande said it seeks to convene meetings on July 24 and 25 with various classes of holders. In April, the developer said investors holding 77% of its Class A bonds backed the plan, while just 30% of Class C holders endorsed it.

Trading Resumption

Evergrande could be closer to resuming trading of its shares after reporting results, and there’s potential for approval of its debt-restructuring plan, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Daniel Fan and Adrian Sim. The firm’s tight cash of 4.3 billion yuan as of year-end, compared with short-term debt of about 587 billion yuan, could explain its imminent need for a debt plan, they said.


The results provide a long-awaited update on the financial status of the defaulted developer, whose woes have come to symbolize the crisis afflicting China’s slumping housing industry. New-home prices started declining again in June for the first time this year, underscoring the lack of buyer interest.

The financial results were audited by Prism, a small accounting firm named as Evergrande’s auditor in January after the resignation by PricewaterhouseCoopers. After working as Evergrande’s auditor since its 2009 Hong Kong listing, PwC resigned months after it was put under investigation by Hong Kong’s accounting regulator for its work on Evergrande and its services arm.

Prism added a disclaimer of opinion to Evergrande’s accounts, saying it’s unable to obtain sufficient and appropriate audit evidence.
Goldman Sachs lowers recession forecast as 'Goldilocks' debate heats up

Jobs data in a 'Goldilocks scenario' ahead of future rate hikes: Economist


Josh Schafer
·Reporter
Mon, July 17, 2023 

Goldman Sachs now sees just a 20% chance the US economy enters a recession in the next 12 months.

The firm had previously projected a 25% chance for a recession and remains well below the consensus estimates it cites from the Wall Street Journal that show a 54% chance.

"The recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession," Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote on Monday in a note titled "The Narrative Turns."

Investors have been closely watching for signs of whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes will send the US economy into a recession. But Goldman Sachs' call comes after the latest string of economic data have depicted a resilient US economy. The June jobs report revealed a 3.6% unemployment rate that is still historically low while average hourly wages increased 4.4% compared to last year. Overall, the labor market added 209,000 nonfarm payrolls that month.

Meanwhile, the latest Consumer Prices Index report showed inflation increasing at its slowest pace since March 2021.

Hatzius specifically highlights the unemployment rate's decline, consumer sentiment hitting its highest levels in nearly two years and a reversal in an upward trend in weekly jobless claims as key signs of economic strength.

"We do expect some deceleration in the next couple of quarters, mostly because of sequentially slower real disposable personal income growth—especially when adjusted for the resumption of student debt payments in October—and a drag from reduced bank lending," Hatzius wrote. "But the easing in financial conditions, the rebound in the housing market, and the ongoing boom in factory building all suggest that the US economy will continue to grow, albeit at a below-trend pace."

Enter 'Goldilocks'

The positive economic outlook has strategists and economists more frequently referencing a fairy-tale ending to the Fed's rate hike path where inflation cools but the economy doesn't tip into a recession.

“'Goldilocks' has entered the room once more!" Evercore's lead strategist Julian Emanuel wrote in a note on Sunday in reaction to the recent positive economic data.

Emanuel is referencing the term Goldilocks economy, which is defined as a period of full employment, economic stability, and stable growth, according to Investopedia.

In other words, a Goldilocks economy is one that resembles the fairytale character's ideal porridge temperature. It's not too cold or too hot, but rather just right.


A miniature Goldilocks and the Three Bears set on display at the Miniatura - Dolls' House and Miniatures show at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham. (Photo by Aaron Chown/PA Images via Getty Images)

But not all economists see the outlook into 2024 as totally rosy, with many still believing some level of a recession is coming at the start of next year. And Emanuel concedes that could be the case as well.

"While the 'Three Bears' (Recession) may not 'enter the house' for months to come, even Goldilocks' curls are subject to wilting in 2023’s record summer heat," Emanuel wrote.

The holes in the strong economy argument center around what could develop over the next several months. While 3% inflation is a notable increase, it's not the Fed's targeted 2%, and core inflation, which eliminates the volatile food and energy categories, is sitting at 4.8%.

And even stocks could be getting "too hot," if earnings season sparks a further push higher in the S&P 500 beyond the already 26% rally from the October lows.

Together, Emanuel points out that the picture is improving. And while the Goldilocks scenario is in play, it might be too early to call the porridge just right for now.

Josh is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.
Biden Gets Little Credit on Economy as He Touts ‘Bidenomics’




Gregory Korte
Wed, July 19, 2023

(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden’s rebranding of his economic policies has largely failed to convince the public that key aspects of the economy are significantly improving, according to a poll released Wednesday by the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Biden gets his best marks for his handling of jobs with the unemployment rate of 3.6%, with 47% approval and 48% disapproval. On his handling of infrastructure, his approval is 43% with 51% disapproving.

On inflation, his approval is just 34% with 62% disapproving, despite a cooling of price increases over the past year, with the consumer price index falling to 3%.


Monmouth calls the marks “mediocre to poor.” The numbers are statistically unchanged from last September, despite an effort from the White House to emphasize the real-world impact of Biden’s economic policies as the president looks toward reelection next year. Biden has embraced the term “Bidenomics,” to highlight his agenda in events and speeches across the country with voter perceptions of the economy are expected to be front-and-center in 2024.

“The president has been touting ‘Bidenomics,’ but the needle of public opinion has not really moved,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “Americans are just not giving him a lot of credit when it comes to the economy.”

Read More: Bidenomics Threatened by Trying to Meet Too Many Goals at Once

The partisan divide is stark, but independent voters lean more toward Republicans. They give Biden a 41% approval for jobs and unemployment, 37% for infrastructure, and just 26% for inflation.

Only three in 10 Americans say the US recovery from the pandemic has outpaced other countries, Monmouth said.

The poll of 910 adults was conducted July 12 to 17, with a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

Why is Joe Biden so unpopular?

BECAUSE AMERICANS ARE WHINERS

Andrew Romano
·West Coast Correspondent
Updated Tue, July 18, 2023
“The 360” shows you diverse perspectives on the day’s top stories and debates.


Photo illustration: Jack Forbes/Yahoo News; photos: Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images


What’s happening


At this point in his term — about 910 days in — Joe Biden is the second-most-unpopular president in modern U.S. history. As of July 18, Biden’s average job-approval rating, according to the poll aggregators at FiveThirtyEight, is a paltry 39.1%; his average disapproval rating is 55.4%. That means his “net approval rating” is -16.3%, which is well “underwater,” as pollsters like to say.

Negative 16.3% is also really bad historically speaking. In fact, the only president with weaker numbers than Biden was Jimmy Carter, who hit -28.6% on day 910. At the time, just 29% of Americans approved of Carter’s performance on average, while 57.6% disapproved.
Why there’s debate

The U.S. was in much, much worse shape in 1979 — the year before Carter lost reelection to Ronald Reagan — than it is in 2023. Inflation had skyrocketed by 13.3% year-over-year; unemployment was stubbornly stuck around 6%; and the price of oil was in the process of doubling. Global shortages were so bad that Americans took to waiting in long lines — and occasionally punching each other — at their local gas stations.

In contrast, a gallon of gas today costs roughly 30% less than it did 12 months ago. At 3.6%, unemployment is on par with 50-year lows — and down by almost half since Biden took office. The U.S. economy added 4 million jobs over the past year. Inflation has cooled to 3% after peaking last summer at triple that rate. And America’s so-called misery index — a combination of unemployment and inflation — is lower now than it has been during 83% of all months since 1978. Recession fears are subsiding.

Meanwhile, as the Washington Monthly’s Bill Scher notes, illegal border crossings “have dropped by 70 percent in the last few weeks, according to the Department of Homeland Security, after Biden implemented a new border-management policy.” And “murder is down about 12 percent year-to-date in more than 90 cities that have released data for 2023, compared with data as of the same date in 2022,” according to crime data analyst Jeff Asher, writing in the Atlantic — a trend that could lead to “one of the largest annual percent changes in murder ever recorded.”

On top of that, Biden has delivered on several policy promises that poll pretty well with the public.

In the past, a president’s standing has tended to improve along with conditions in the country. Yet Biden’s numbers haven’t budged; since September 2022, his approval rating has remained mired around 40% while his disapproval rating has never broken out of the low to mid-50s.

The question is why. Is it something systemic — the way Americans are increasingly stuck in their own partisan media bubbles and unwilling to give presidents of the opposing party any credit? Is it the economy — the way certain indicators (such as real wages and the cost of services) have yet to fully recover even as the overall picture brightens?

Or is it Biden himself — his advanced age, his frequent gaffes, his ongoing family drama? And can the president turn things around in time for the 2024 election?
What’s next

Election season. Biden’s 2024 campaign spent a total of $1.1 million in the second quarter of this year, a “remarkably small amount that would put him behind several Democratic Senate candidates in terms of expenditures,” according to Politico. In comparison, Biden’s old boss Barack Obama spent about 11 times as much during the second quarter of 2011.

Biden, in other words, hasn’t really started selling himself to voters yet. Assuming the economy keeps improving, a national campaign — and the contrast it could create with the even-less-popular Trump, Biden’s likeliest GOP rival — might help the president become more popular over the next 16 months. In July 2011, Obama was underwater too; by Election Day 2012, his net approval rating had climbed to +5% or so.
Perspectives

Biden is unpopular because inflation pain is uniquely hard to shake

“One possibility is that, after enjoying largely stable prices for decades, Americans simply have little tolerance for inflation. Sure, their wages may have grown faster than prices since February 2020. But voters might be inclined to attribute their income gains to their own efforts, while blaming rising prices on the government’s mismanagement. They still have not adjusted psychologically to the jump in their grocery bills, and are irked each time they see the receipt and remember what things used to cost when Donald Trump was still president.” — Eric Levitz, New York magazine

Meanwhile, prices remain stubbornly high ‘where it counts’

“Although inflation has eased some, it hasn’t where it counts. Per the Wall Street Journal, prices ‘are stubbornly rising for what retail and food executives refer to as the center store,’ a euphemism for non-perishable staples from cereals to paper towels. In percentage terms, the cost of these goods is up by double digits across a variety of categories from just months or even weeks ago. And to judge by this report, many of the customers surveyed by Journal reporters went out of their way to note the tradeoffs they have had to make to stretch their dollars as far as possible. That’s an inconvenience that almost everyone feels and is liable to resent.” — Noah Rothman, National Review

Even if various indicators keep improving, it will take time for Americans to feel it

“Most Americans do not follow monthly inflation, crime, or border-crossing statistics. They experience inflation through more expensive bills, less abundant grocery purchases, and delayed big-ticket investments; crime through if-it-bleeds-it-leads local news broadcasts and major events like mass shootings; immigration through vivid images of people in migrant camps or the frequency with which they hear foreign languages spoken in their own communities. The positive statistics … need to be reflected over time in real-life experiences — and they need to persist until the moment voters decide how to vote.” — Ed Kilgore, New York magazine

Partisanship might have permanently changed how we grade presidents

“A survey question along the lines of, ‘Do you think economic conditions are good or bad?’ is answered more along the lines of, ‘Do you like the current president or not?’ In October 2020, just before President Trump lost re-election, Republicans' economic sentiment was 26 points higher than Democrats' in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. In February 2021, after Biden took office, Republicans rated the economy 28 points worse. A similar pattern occurred between the parties around the 2016 and 2008 elections, when partisan control shifted hands. We seem to be experiencing something similar right now.” — Neil Irwin, Axios

Americans are really ‘unhappy’ to boot

“Since 1990, the number of Americans reporting they feel ‘not too happy’ has been trending upward, particularly among those without a college education. The onset of the pandemic only exacerbated the growing national unhappiness. … Whatever the causes, it turns out that unhappiness is a very strong predictor of voting behavior. Being extremely unhappy more than doubled a person’s likelihood of voting for Trump in 2016, and the unhappiest counties were the Trumpiest.” — Deepak Bhargava, Shahrzad Shams and Harry Hanbury, Democracy Journal
WORSE OFF THAN BIDEN
Japan PM Kishida Approval Rating Drops on Fukushima, National ID Woes

Fumio Kishida
Prime Minister of Japan since 2021

Kanoko Matsuyama
Sun, July 16, 2023 

(Bloomberg) -- Support for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet fell, amid concerns over problems with a national ID card and the release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear site.

A survey carried out by Kyodo News found support had slumped by 6.5 percentage points on the previous poll to 34.4%, nearing the lowest level since Kishida took office in 2021. A separate poll by the Asahi newspaper found the approval rate had fallen 5 percentage points to 37%, also near a low of 34%. Another survey by the Sankei newspaper said the rate fell for a third straight month to 41.3%.


Polls cited reasons including continued troubles over the overhaul of a national ID card, and insufficient explanation over the release of treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear site.

Last month Kishida promised the public he would fix problems with the introduction of a national ID card that is set to be made essentially compulsory from next autumn, and has raised concerns about data breaches.

Unease over cases where people have found their ID cards linked to personal information about unrelated individuals has added to pressure on Kishida.

Meanwhile the plan for Tokyo Electric Power Co. to release the wastewater — equivalent in volume to about 500 Olympic-size swimming pools — has drawn fierce criticism from China and stirred wider regional concerns.

Around 80% of respondents to the Kyodo poll said the government’s explanation over the Fukushima wastewater was insufficient, while 74.7% said the current review of problems plaguing the national ID card will not resolve the issue.


Respondents also remained skeptical of the government’s measures to tackle the country’s falling birthrate. About 65% of those surveyed by the Asahi expressed disapproval, while a similar number said they didn’t expect the measures to improve the birthrate according to the Sankei survey.

All nationwide polls were conducted over the weekend via phone.

(Adds details from Sankei newspaper poll in second, eighth paragraph.)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
AMERIKAN FASCISM 2.0
"Authoritarianism will be on the ballot": Experts worried over Trump's "alarming" 2025 plot



Gabriella Ferrigine
SALON
Mon, July 17, 2023

Former President Donald Trump and his allies are already scheming up plans to significantly expand his presidential power if he wins back the White House next year.

The New York Times reported on Monday that Trump and his inner circle have a "broader goal: to alter the balance of power by increasing the president's authority over every part of the federal government that now operates, by either law or tradition, with any measure of independence from political interference by the White House, according to a review of his campaign policy proposals and interviews with people close to him."

This wide-ranging plan would include bringing independent agencies such as the Federal Communications Commission and the Environmental Protection Agency directly under the president, the return of "impounding" funds — a strategy banned during the Nixon administration that empowered a president to refuse to spend Congressionally-allocated money on programs they dislike — as well as the removal of employment protections for thousands of career civil servants and an intelligence agency purge of officials he holds personal vendettas against and has deemed to be "deep staters" and "the sick political class that hates our country."

"We will demolish the deep state," Trump said at a rally in Michigan. "We will expel the warmongers from our government. We will drive out the globalists. We will cast out the communists, Marxists and fascists. And we will throw off the sick political class that hates our country."

Under Trump's plan — which was drafted during his first term — independent agencies would be required to submit actions to the president for review, in an effort to consolidate such organizations "under presidential authority." The order was ultimately not enacted due to internal concerns such as how the market would react if the Federal Reserve was stripped of its independence.

"What we're trying to do is identify the pockets of independence and seize them," Russell Vought, who headed the Office of Management and Budget during Trump's administration, told the Times. Open discussion of such political strategies is rife in Trump's rallies and campaign websites, according to the report, a tactic Vought described as planting "a flag" ahead of the election.

Vought added that "at the bare minimum," the Federal Reserve should be subject to presidential review. "It's very hard to square the Fed's independence with the Constitution," he told the Times.

Former White House personnel chief John McEntee, who is credited with initiating Trump's 2020 efforts to expel officials he personally opposed, also did not mince words regarding the ex-president's scheme.

"The president's plan should be to fundamentally reorient the federal government in a way that hasn't been done since F.D.R.'s New Deal," McEntee said. "Our current executive branch was conceived of by liberals for the purpose of promulgating liberal policies. There is no way to make the existing structure function in a conservative manner. It's not enough to get the personnel right. What's necessary is a complete system overhaul."

Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung observed that Trump has "laid out a bold and transparent agenda for his second term, something no other candidate has done."

"Voters will know exactly how President Trump will supercharge the economy, bring down inflation, secure the border, protect communities and eradicate the deep state that works against Americans once and for all," he added.

But former White House chief of staff John Kelly said he felt the strategy would be "chaotic" because Trump would "continually be trying to exceed his authority but the sycophants would go along with it. It would be a nonstop gunfight with the Congress and the courts."



Experts raised major concerns over Trump's "alarming" plot.

"Anyone who opposes a Presidential autocracy in America should read this closely," warned presidential historian Michael Beschloss.

"The conservatives who are pushing this should imagine for one second the panic they would express if Biden did it," tweeted national security attorney Bradley Moss.

"In 2024, authoritarianism—unchecked, unembarrassed and undisguised—will be on the ballot," wrote Bill Kristol, a longtime NeverTrump conservative and founder of The Weekly Standard.

"Be afraid. This is on the verge of happening 18 months from now," tweeted MSNBC host Mehdi Hasan. "Now ask yourself this question: are cautious, in-denial, business-as-usual establishment Dems equipped, or even willing, to address this anti-democratic, autocratic threat?"

Trump and Allies Forge Plans to Increase Presidential Power in 2025

Jonathan Swan, Charlie Savage and Maggie Haberman
Mon, July 17, 2023 



Donald Trump and his allies are planning a sweeping expansion of presidential power over the machinery of government if voters return him to the White House in 2025, reshaping the structure of the executive branch to concentrate far greater authority directly in his hands.

Their plans to centralize more power in the Oval Office stretch far beyond the former president’s recent remarks that he would order a criminal investigation into his political rival, President Joe Biden, signaling his intent to end the post-Watergate norm of Justice Department independence from White House political control.

Trump and his associates have a broader goal: to alter the balance of power by increasing the president’s authority over every part of the federal government that now operates, by either law or tradition, with any measure of independence from political interference by the White House, according to a review of his campaign policy proposals and interviews with people close to him.

Trump intends to bring independent agencies — like the Federal Communications Commission, which makes and enforces rules for television and internet companies, and the Federal Trade Commission, which enforces various antitrust and other consumer protection rules against businesses — under direct presidential control.

He wants to revive the practice of “impounding” funds, refusing to spend money Congress has appropriated for programs a president doesn’t like — a tactic that lawmakers banned under President Richard Nixon.

He intends to strip employment protections from tens of thousands of career civil servants, making it easier to replace them if they are deemed obstacles to his agenda. And he plans to scour the intelligence agencies, the State Department and the defense bureaucracies to remove officials he has vilified as “the sick political class that hates our country.”

“The president’s plan should be to fundamentally reorient the federal government in a way that hasn’t been done since FDR’s New Deal,” said John McEntee, a former White House personnel chief who began Trump’s systematic attempt to sweep out officials deemed to be disloyal in 2020 and who is now involved in mapping out the new approach.

“Our current executive branch,” McEntee added, “was conceived of by liberals for the purpose of promulgating liberal policies. There is no way to make the existing structure function in a conservative manner. It’s not enough to get the personnel right. What’s necessary is a complete system overhaul.”

Trump and his advisers are making no secret of their intentions — proclaiming them in rallies and on his campaign website, describing them in white papers and openly discussing them.

“What we’re trying to do is identify the pockets of independence and seize them,” said Russell T. Vought, who ran the Office of Management and Budget in the Trump White House and now runs a policy organization, the Center for Renewing America.

The strategy in talking openly about such “paradigm-shifting ideas” before the election, Vought said, is to “plant a flag” — both to shift the debate and to later be able to claim a mandate. He said he was delighted to see few of Trump’s Republican primary rivals defend the norm of Justice Department independence after the former president openly attacked it.

Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for Trump’s campaign, said in a statement that the former president has “laid out a bold and transparent agenda for his second term, something no other candidate has done.” He added, “Voters will know exactly how President Trump will supercharge the economy, bring down inflation, secure the border, protect communities and eradicate the deep state that works against Americans once and for all.”

The two driving forces of this effort to reshape the executive branch are Trump’s own campaign policy shop and a well-funded network of conservative groups, many of which are populated by former senior Trump administration officials who would most likely play key roles in any second term.

Vought and McEntee are involved in Project 2025, a $22 million presidential transition operation that is preparing policies, personnel lists and transition plans to recommend to any Republican who may win the 2024 election. The transition project, the scale of which is unprecedented in conservative politics, is led by the Heritage Foundation, a think tank that has shaped the personnel and policies of Republican administrations since the Reagan presidency.

That work at Heritage dovetails with plans on the Trump campaign website to expand presidential power that were drafted primarily by two of Trump’s advisers, Vincent Haley and Ross Worthington, with input from other advisers, including Stephen Miller, the architect of the former president’s hard-line immigration agenda.

Some elements of the plans had been floated when Trump was in office but were impeded by internal concerns that they would be unworkable and could lead to setbacks. And for some veterans of Trump’s turbulent White House who came to question his fitness for leadership, the prospect of removing guardrails and centralizing even greater power over government directly in his hands sounded like a recipe for mayhem.

“It would be chaotic,” said John Kelly, Trump’s second White House chief of staff. “It just simply would be chaotic, because he’d continually be trying to exceed his authority but the sycophants would go along with it. It would be a nonstop gunfight with the Congress and the courts.”

The agenda being pursued has deep roots in the decadeslong effort by conservative legal thinkers to undercut what has become known as the administrative state — agencies that enact regulations aimed at keeping the air and water clean and food, drugs and consumer products safe, but that cut into business profits.



Its legal underpinning is a maximalist version of the so-called unitary executive theory.

The legal theory rejects the idea that the government is composed of three separate branches with overlapping powers to check and balance each other. Instead, the theory’s adherents argue that Article 2 of the Constitution gives the president complete control of the executive branch, so Congress cannot empower agency heads to make decisions or restrict the president’s ability to fire them. Reagan administration lawyers developed the theory as they sought to advance a deregulatory agenda.

“The notion of independent federal agencies or federal employees who don’t answer to the president violates the very foundation of our democratic republic,” said Kevin D. Roberts, the president of the Heritage Foundation, adding that the contributors to Project 2025 are committed to “dismantling this rogue administrative state.”

Personal power has always been a driving force for Trump. He often gestures toward it in a more simplistic manner, such as in 2019, when he declared to a cheering crowd, “I have an Article 2, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president.”

Trump made the remark in reference to his claimed ability to directly fire Robert Mueller, the special counsel in the Russia inquiry, which primed his hostility toward law enforcement and intelligence agencies. He also tried to get a subordinate to have Mueller ousted, but was defied.

Early in Trump’s presidency, his chief strategist, Steve Bannon, promised a “deconstruction of the administrative state.” But Trump installed people in other key roles who ended up telling him that more radical ideas were unworkable or illegal. In the final year of his presidency, he told aides he was fed up with being constrained by subordinates.

Now, Trump is laying out a far more expansive vision of power in any second term. And, in contrast with his disorganized transition after his surprise 2016 victory, he now benefits from a well-funded policymaking infrastructure, led by former officials who did not break with him after his attempts to overturn the 2020 election and the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

One idea the people around Trump have developed centers on bringing independent agencies under his thumb.

Congress created these specialized technocratic agencies inside the executive branch and delegated to them some of its power to make rules for society. But it did so on the condition that it was not simply handing off that power to presidents to wield like kings — putting commissioners atop them whom presidents appoint but generally cannot fire before their terms end, while using its control of their budgets to keep them partly accountable to lawmakers as well. (Agency actions are also subject to court review.)

Presidents of both parties have chafed at the agencies’ independence. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, whose New Deal created many of them, endorsed a proposal in 1937 to fold them all into Cabinet departments under his control, but Congress did not enact it.

Later presidents sought to impose greater control over nonindependent agencies Congress created, like the Environmental Protection Agency, which is run by an administrator whom a president can remove at will. For example, President Ronald Reagan issued executive orders requiring nonindependent agencies to submit proposed regulations to the White House for review. But overall, presidents have largely left the independent agencies alone.

Trump’s allies are preparing to change that, drafting an executive order requiring independent agencies to submit actions to the White House for review. Trump endorsed the idea on his campaign website, vowing to bring them “under presidential authority.”

Such an order was drafted in Trump’s first term — and blessed by the Justice Department — but never issued amid internal concerns. Some of the concerns were over how to carry out reviews for agencies that are headed by multiple commissioners and subject to administrative procedures and open-meetings laws, as well as over how the market would react if the order chipped away at the Federal Reserve’s independence, people familiar with the matter said.

The Federal Reserve was ultimately exempted in the draft executive order, but Trump did not sign it before his presidency ended. If Trump and his allies get another shot at power, the independence of the Federal Reserve — an institution Trump publicly railed at as president — could be up for debate. Notably, the Trump campaign website’s discussion of bringing independent agencies under presidential control is silent on whether that includes the Fed.

Asked whether presidents should be able to order interest rates lowered before elections, even if experts think that would hurt the long-term health of the economy, Vought said that would have to be worked out with Congress. But “at the bare minimum,” he said, the Federal Reserve’s regulatory functions should be subject to White House review.

“It’s very hard to square the Fed’s independence with the Constitution,” Vought said.

Other former Trump administration officials involved in the planning said there would also probably be a legal challenge to the limits on a president’s power to fire heads of independent agencies. Trump could remove an agency head, teeing up the question for the Supreme Court.

The Supreme Court in 1935 and 1988 upheld the power of Congress to shield some executive branch officials from being fired without cause. But after justices appointed by Republicans since Reagan took control, it has started to erode those precedents.

Peter L. Strauss, professor emeritus of law at Columbia University and a critic of the strong version of the unitary executive theory, argued that it is constitutional and desirable for Congress, in creating and empowering an agency to perform some task, to also include some checks on the president’s control over officials “because we don’t want autocracy” and to prevent abuses.

“The regrettable fact is that the judiciary at the moment seems inclined to recognize that the president does have this kind of authority,” he said. “They are clawing away agency independence in ways that I find quite unfortunate and disrespectful of congressional choice.”

Trump has also vowed to impound funds, or refuse to spend money appropriated by Congress. After Nixon used the practice to aggressively block agency spending he was opposed to, on water pollution control, housing construction and other issues, Congress banned the tactic.

On his campaign website, Trump declared that presidents have a constitutional right to impound funds and said he would restore the practice — though he acknowledged it could result in a legal battle.

Trump and his allies also want to transform the civil service — government employees who are supposed to be nonpartisan professionals and experts with protections against being fired for political reasons.

The former president views the civil service as a den of “deep staters” who were trying to thwart him at every turn, including by raising legal or pragmatic objections to his immigration policies, among many other examples. Toward the end of his term, his aides drafted an executive order, “Creating Schedule F in the Excepted Service,” that removed employment protections from career officials whose jobs were deemed linked to policymaking.

Trump signed the order, which became known as Schedule F, near the end of his presidency, but Biden rescinded it. Trump has vowed to immediately reinstitute it in a second term.

Critics say he could use it for a partisan purge. But James Sherk, a former Trump administration official who came up with the idea and now works at the America First Policy Institute — a think tank stocked heavily with former Trump officials — argued it would only be used against poor performers and people who actively impeded the elected president’s agenda.

“Schedule F expressly forbids hiring or firing based on political loyalty,” Sherk said. “Schedule F employees would keep their jobs if they served effectively and impartially.”

Trump himself has characterized his intentions rather differently — promising on his campaign website to “find and remove the radicals who have infiltrated the federal Department of Education” and listing a litany of targets at a rally last month.

“We will demolish the deep state,” Trump said at the rally in Michigan. “We will expel the warmongers from our government. We will drive out the globalists. We will cast out the communists, Marxists and fascists. And we will throw off the sick political class that hates our country.”

c.2023 The New York Times Company
OVERLOOKED NEWS
Exclusive-Head of engineering for Trump’s Truth Social app resigns

Helen Coster
Mon, July 17, 2023 

Illustration shows Truth social network logo and display of former U.S. President Donald Trump


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The head of engineering for the company that operates former U.S. President Donald Trump’s Truth Social app told Reuters on Monday he had resigned, in a blow for the venture.

Alex Gleason’s departure comes amid a period of prolonged uncertainty for Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), which launched Truth Social as a way for Trump to connect with his base after he was cut off from major social media platforms after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by his followers.

Gleason is the founder of Soapbox Technology, which provides open-source technology for “decentralized” social media platforms that operate on independently-run servers and provide an alternative to Twitter and Facebook.

Gleason said in an interview that he is leaving TMTG to work on Soapbox full-time, developing technology for connecting multiple decentralized platforms.

TMTG hired Gleason in January 2022 to adapt Soapbox’s technology for its own needs, eventually using it as the front-end technology - which users see and interact with - for the Truth Social app.

A representative for TMTG did not respond to a request for comment about Gleason’s departure.

Truth Social has struggled to show strong growth in the number of users since its February 2022 launch.

Since then, Trump has been reinstated on the more widely-used platforms from which he was ousted, including Facebook and Twitter, and Truth Social’s user base has remained tiny compared to the growth targets TMTG laid out in November 2021, when it told investors the app would reach 56 million users by 2024 and 81 million by 2026.

Truth Social has an estimated 607,000 monthly users, according to data from Similarweb.

Trump had 5.71 million followers on Truth Social as of July 17, compared to the more than 88 million followers he had on Twitter when the platform suspended him.

TMTG had in October 2021 announced a deal to go public by merging with blank-check firm Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) but the merger has been in doubt as investigations by the Justice Department and the U.S. securities regulator have delayed its closing.

A filing earlier this month showed that DWAC has reached an agreement with the staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission, though it was not yet definitive and the terms were subject to the SEC's approval.

(Reporting by Helen Coster, editing by Deepa Babington)
ISN'T THAT CUTE

Heatwave map 2023: Temperatures set to soar in Italy, Spain and Greece due to Charon heatwave

THE EU NAMES THEIR KILLER HEATWAVES

Stuti Mishra
Tue, July 18, 2023 at 7:52 AM MDT·4 min read

Southern Europe is bracing for scorching temperatures this week as a new anticyclone entered the region, adding to the deadly heatwave that began last week.


The new weather system, named Charon after the ferryman of the dead in Greek mythology, moved over the region on Sunday after days of sweltering heat under another high pressure weather system dubbed Cerberus.



Charon, which like Cerberus has moved northwards from north Africa, is expected to drive temperatures in Italy’s Sardinia as high as 48C, a mark that could see it approach or even break Sicily’s 48.8C record for the hottest temperature ever recorded in Europe.




The European Space Agency (ESA) says Italy, Spain, France, Germany and Poland may see extreme conditions.

The impact of the heatwave has already led to raging wildfires in Spain prompting the evacuation of over 4,000 people, Greece shutting down the ancient Acropolis during the hottest part of the day and Italy issuing hot weather red alerts for 16 cities.

Here’s what the forecasters are saying for extreme temperatures in Spain, Italy and Greece:

Italy

Italy has already seen the extreme heat turning deadly with a 44-year-old worker collapsing while painting zebra crossing lines in the town of Lodi, near Milan. He died in hospital last week.

Several tourists struggled with the heat, including an unnamed British tourist who passed out in front of the ancient Roman Colosseum on Tuesday.

Temperatures are expected to remain hot this week with large parts of Italy expected to be above 35C on Tuesday and some cities forecast to hit 40C and above.

“We need to prepare for a severe heat storm that, day after day, will blanket the whole country,” Italian weather news service Meteo.it warned on Sunday.

“In some places ancient heat records will be broken.”

Health alerts are in place across various regions in Italy, including Rome, Florence, Palermo in Sicily, and Bari in the southeast.

The hottest weather is forecast to hit Sardinia, where meteorologists say there is a chance of the mercury hitting 48C or above, and potentially recording a European record.

Rome could see 43C, smashing the previous record for the Italian capital set last summer.

Italian health minister Orazio Schillaci urged people to take care, especially elderly individuals, asking people not to visit iconic outdoor sites like the Colosseum during the extreme heat.

“Going to the Colosseum when it is 43C is not advisable, especially for an elderly person,” he told Il Messaggero newspaper on Sunday, saying people should stay indoors between 11am and 6pm.

Spain

In Spain, temperatures are expected to be above 40C and remain high throughout the night, making it challenging to find respite from the heat.

Forecasters are also warning of the risk of forest fires as blazes erupted in the La Palma region of the Canary Islands on Saturday, forcing the evacuation of more than 4,000 residents.

Last week, the ground temperature in Spain, which is different from the air temperatures recorded for weather forecasts, crossed 60C in Extremadura, Spain.

Spain’s largest cities, Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia are set to see temperatures above 35C, according to the current forecasts. But meteorologists warn the mercury can climb up to the mid-40s in some places including Zaragoza in central Spain this week.

Greece


Greece has been baking in 40C heat as authorities have already taken precautions, closing the ancient Acropolis during the hottest part of the day to protect tourists.

There are also fears in Greece of a greater risk of wildfires, especially in areas with high winds. It suffered major wildfires in 2021 in another exceptional heatwave.

Earlier on Friday a tourist was stretchered out of the Acropolis site after falling ill due to the heat, local police said. Several other tourists in Athens reportedly sought help for heat stress.

The Red Cross has been distributing water bottles and helping people feeling nauseous and dizzy in the heat.

There and in other Greek cities, working hours were changed for the public sector and many businesses to avoid the midday heat, while air-conditioned areas were opened to the public.

Authorities in affected regions are urging residents and tourists to take necessary precautions, including staying indoors during the hottest parts of the day, staying hydrated, and avoiding strenuous outdoor activities.

Heatwaves are one of the deadliest natural hazards. Last year’s summer heatwave killed 61,672 people in Europe, a recent study has found.

The extreme heat in Europe comes as various records fell globally in recent days driven by the worsening climate crisis and the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific, which is known to drive temperatures higher.

The first week of this month saw the average temperature of Earth at its highest level on record. Heatwaves have gripped the oceans and large parts of the northern hemisphere affecting large parts of the US, driving record wildfires in Canada and intense heat in China and Japan.

This weekend, China recorded its hottest July temperature 52.2C while California’s Death Valley hit 51C on Sunday.
Kingspan to Buy Majority Stake in German Building Firm Steico

Aaron Kirchfeld and Eyk Henning
Tue, July 18, 2023 


(Bloomberg) -- Kingspan Group Plc has agreed to buy a majority stake in German building materials maker Steico SE from founder Udo Schramek.

Ireland-based Kingspan is acquiring a 51% stake in Steico from Schramek GmbH, both companies said on Monday evening, confirming a Bloomberg News report. Schramek will retain 10.1% of Steico’s shares for the time being and remain chief executive officer.


Kingspan is initially paying €35 per share for the 51% stake in Steico, or about €251 million ($282 million). That amount could double if performance milestones are met later. Kingspan has an option to acquire the rest of Schramek’s stake in the future, it said.

Shares in Steico rose as much as 7.6% on Tuesday. The stock was flat at €32.15 at 9:55 a.m. in Frankfurt, giving the company a market value of €453 million. Kingspan rose as much as 2% in Dublin, valuing it at almost €13 billion.

Schramek will resign from his position as chairman of Steico’s administrative board but will remain a member of it, according to its statement. Kingspan will seek representation on the board with the support of Schramek GmbH, Steico said in the statement.

Kingspan won’t be required to make an offer to buy out minority investors under the rules of the market where Steico is listed, according to the statement.

Steico has faced severe headwinds this year as rising interest rates, higher building costs and insufficient subsidies have dented new real estate development in Germany. The company cut 2023 guidance in June, saying sales are expected to be around 15% lower than 2022 and not flat as previously expected.

But Morgan Stanley recently raised its recommendation on Steico to overweight. The bank said the maker of insulation materials is close to the bottom of a downgrade cycle and that growth is expected to pick up, driven by new capacity and wood-fiber share gains. The building materials industry as a whole is being supported by mega trends such as the need for better insulation and sustainable products.

Kingspan said Steico is the world leader in natural insulation and wood-based building envelope products, with four large production sites in Poland and France. The German company in June forecast 2023 revenues of about €378 million and a profit margin of 8% to 10%, it said.

“Its suite of wood-based building envelope solutions broadens our ability to enable our customers to meet their sustainability and energy performance needs,” Gene Murtagh, Kingspan’s chief executive officer, said in a statement.

Steico in May confirmed a Bloomberg News report that Schramek, who founded the company’s predecessor in 1986, was exploring strategic options for his controlling stake. The group could have attracted interest from European building material makers such as Kingspan, closely held German competitor Knauf Group, France’s Cie. de Saint-Gobain and Swiss company Holcim Ltd., people familiar with the matter said at the time.

(Updates with shares in third paragraph, CEO quote in ninth paragraph.)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
Biggest African Port to Be Partially Privatized


Antony Sguazzin
Mon, July 17, 2023 

(Bloomberg) -- Africa’s biggest harbor will be partly owned and operated by the Philippines’ International Container Terminal Services Inc., a first for South Africa’s national ports company.

The company, known as ICTSI, has been selected as an equity partner to run and expand Durban Container Terminal Pier 2. Almost three quarters of the freight volume moved through the eastern port goes through the terminal and it accounts for 46% of South Africa’s total port traffic, according to state logistics company, Transnet SOC Ltd.

This agreement “is a key catalyst for repositioning the Port of Durban as a container hub port,” Transnet said in a statement on Monday.

South Africa is seeking to boost private participation in its ports, the poor performance of which is a drag on the economy. In a 2021 World Bank index of container port performance, Durban ranked 364th out of 370 and two other Transnet ports were in the bottom 10.

Transnet will own a 50% plus one share in a new company that will manage the terminal for 25 years and will seek to boost its annual capacity to 2.8 million twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, from two million, it said. TEUs are used to measure trade volumes at container ports.

ICTSI, whose chairman and chief executive officer is Filipino billionaire Enrique Razon, will make an “up front” payment to Transnet for the stake, the South African company said in a response to queries, declining to give a figure. Razon is a major shareholder in ICTSI

Ultimately Transnet wants to boost Durban’s total container capacity to 11.4 million TEUs from 3.3 million.

ICTSI, which operates terminals across six continents, was one of six bidders for the contract, Transnet said.

An announcement on the port of Ngqura will follow, Transnet said.

(Updates with ICTSI ownership and payment for stake in sixth paragraph)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
ANTI-ASIANISM, AN OLD U$ TRADITION
White House blasts RFK Jr for 'antisemitic conspiracy theories'


Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
 speaks at St. Anselm College in Manchester

Reuters
Mon, July 17, 2023

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's chief spokesperson sharply criticized Democratic presidential opponent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for alleging in a recently released video that COVID-19 was targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people and that Jewish and Chinese people are most immune.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre joined a chorus of Democratic outrage at the comments from the 69-year-old son of Senator Robert F. Kennedy, a member of the Kennedy political dynasty who was assassinated while running for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1968.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024, putting him directly in competition with Biden, who is seeking a second four-year term. Kennedy is a long shot for the nomination, with a poll average from election data website FiveThirtyEight showing that about 15% of Democrats support him.

"The assertion that COVID was genetically engineered to spare Jewish and Chinese people is deeply offensive, and incredibly dangerous. Every aspect of these comments reflect some of the most abhorrent antisemitic conspiracy theories throughout history and contributes to today's dangerous rise of antisemitism," Jean-Pierre said.

The New York Post on Saturday published a video that appeared to show Kennedy speaking at a dinner in Manhattan. In the video, the candidate says "COVID-19 attacks certain races disproportionately."

"COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese," he says in the video, adding that it was not known whether the virus was deliberately targeted or not.

Kennedy said on Sunday on Twitter than the "insinuation by @nypost and others that, as as result of my quoting a peer-reviewed paper on bio-weapons, I am somehow antisemitic, is a disgusting fabrication."

(Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt and Steve Holland; Editing by Heather Timmons and Deepa Babington)