Friday, July 21, 2023

 

ALTERNATIVES: HOW TO END OUR ADDICTION TO OIL AND GAS

Using all means available to us as citizens, individuals, investors, workers, and voters we must call for an end to the fossil fuel era and demand immediate and far-reaching change of the world’s major oil corporations.
 AND 
21 JULY 2023

How to produce power without polluting the planet? (Photo: Pixabay / Pexels)

  • Authors reveal environmental activists and oil majors such as Shell have been engaged in high-level conversations for years but there is no sign of a serious change of course from the corporations

The fossil fuel industry has known about the damage it causes to the climate and our natural world almost since its inception. 

The impact of air pollution on human health and numerous global environmental catastrophes as a result of fossil fuel activities, have led to changes in government legislation through the decades. 

However, as we find ourselves in what has been referred to as the defining decade from an environmental and climate point of view, we need action, including legislation, at a much more profound level – one where the aim is to end the fossil fuel era once and for all, before it ends us once and for all.

This is of course a tall order. 

The fierce protection of the fossil fuel industry is not only due to its continued profitability. It’s also due to the power and influence it provides to some.  

The centralisation of energy generation and thus power in the hands of a small number of giant corporations has meant that a relatively small number of people have not only benefited financially; their level of control over other industries, nation states, and indeed the wider world, is significant. 

This power structure is fiercely protected through intense lobbying, ensuring our dependency on oil continues. From transport to heat and packaging to agriculture, the fingerprints of the fossil fuel industry are everywhere. 

However, an important feature of the climate crisis is that in itself it benefits no-one. Shell executives don’t want their children to grow up on a blasted planet or in societies facing climate-driven civilisational collapse. No-one does. 

Those working in the fossil fuel industry, while having an all-too-real responsibility, will be victims in the future too, like everyone will.

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What are oil corporations doing? 

The fossil fuel industry are experts in getting their agenda prioritised. They have used the most cunning approaches to, first, outright deny, and then delay, the public’s awareness of the cause and effect relationship between the burning of fossil fuels and the increase in average global temperatures. 

They did have an advantage, of course, as their own scientists drew the conclusion before most others. This allowed them time to find strategies to ensure we were all locked in, making the system dependent on oil, before we all started to realise the consequences.

Most people, even in the comfortable parts of the Global North, are now starting to experience dangerous climatic changes for themselves. 

“The industry presents itself as a saviour which the world cannot manage without”

Yet the oil and gas industry is still able to delay the energy transition away from fossil fuels by taking advantage of the economic and geopolitical situation to serve its agenda, feeding the world more oil and gas. 

This is a tried and tested tactic where the industry presents itself as a saviour which the world cannot manage without.  

Promoting national energy security and affordable energy, as well as social and political pressure to continue “growing the economy” and keep people in employment (although there are of course viable job transition pathways), are key arguments employed for continuing with oil and gas. 

In this way the “ecosystem” that supports and ultimately benefits from the fossil fuel industry and the power structure it represents, is still somehow able to largely convince society that we need oil and gas, even as we find ourselves in the midst of a crisis caused by it in the first place.

Self-inflicted trilemmas

Providing this continued supply is justified as a means to meet critical demand that  international oil corporations (IOCs) cannot, they claim, influence. In fact, they argue they can only transition away from fossil fuels as fast as society wants. 

As such they have become self proclaimed victims of their own success. With everyone addicted to oil and gas, and investors and shareholders accustomed to continuously high returns, the claim is that the decarbonisation journey is inherently going to fail. 

It’s almost possible to feel a little sorry for them…had it not been that this of course is all part of their strategy.

We think this self induced problem created by the IOCs is not an impossible nut to crack however. At least in theory. 

We are working with colleagues on the Climate Majority Project one of whose aims is to change the whole orientation of business: away from purely competitive advantage-seeking towards recognising that unless bad actors are reformed or driven out then we are headed for a future with no profits, i.e, on a dying planet. 

We think it still conceivable that the industry can, if it wishes, free itself from its self-inflicted trilemmas. And this is how.

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Start with telling the truth

Shell’s recent AGM was significantly disrupted by a group of small shareholders. A Shell spokesperson said the corporation “welcome[s] any constructive engagement on our strategy and the energy transition. However, yet again protesters have shown that they are not interested in constructive engagement.”

But this is the height of chutzpah and indeed duplicity on Shell’s part. 

We can reveal exclusively today in Declassified that such engagement has been taking place, with Shell and other IOCs. 

“There is literally no sign of a change of course from the international oil corporations”

We can categorically state our knowledge that there has been more or less regular, very high-level, private and deep engagement occurring between tough, bold, constructive critics like ourselves and the IOCs, for the last several years. 

And yet there is literally no sign of a change of course from the IOCs; they have failed to listen or maybe all they ever wanted was to spin out some impression of engagement. 

On the contrary, their stances on climate (and in particular Shell’s) have significantly worsened over the last twelve plus months; they have left behind their so-called strategies for achieving net-zero and energy transition. 

It is thus no wonder that active citizens, profoundly concerned about their children’s futures (and about their own!) resort to disruption of business as usual, when business as usual is hastening their deaths, and when other politer methods have been systematically tried for decades, yet so far, are self-evidently not working.

Smears, slanders, lies

The implication from Shell that there has been no constructive engagement from those appalled by the IOCs’ record and demanding change is plainly false. Such smears, slanders, and lies have to stop.

The IOCs, if they want any respect at all, and if they want to try to start to rebuild trust from “consumers”, citizens, and indeed shareholders, have to start telling the truth about this – and everything else. 

The oil industry, including individual IOCs, needs to acknowledge its absolute responsibility in the future-threatening, horrific environmental crisis we all now face. 

Further to this, issuing an apology for all the harm it has caused is important. 

This would need to include a public statement saying that we, humanity, in 2023, find ourselves in an existential crisis, an (un-)natural ecological catastrophe that the fossil fuel industry knew about and has been responsible for from the beginning. 

Because it’s not only the climate crisis that we are facing. The oil industry is also responsible for the plastic pollution killing our oceans, what lives in them and which is now finding its way into our unborn babies’ bloodstream, as well as numerous incidents around the world polluting local communities and ruining livelihoods for generations. 

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Truth telling

This truth telling for which we are calling must take place at the highest level, and be published in legally binding documents like the chairperson’s and CEO’s statements in the company’s annual accounts. Thus for it to count, the following points need to be made:

  1. Climate change is real and man-made, and amounts to an existential threat to human civilisation.
  2. Not meeting the Paris climate targets (e.g. limiting the increase in average global temperature to 1.5 degrees) creates unacceptable risks for the future of life.
  3. Staying within the Paris carbon budgets – which limit the amount of carbon emitted to stay within a 1.5 degree temperature rise and well below 2 degrees – must take precedence in all decision making.
  4. A disruptive transition is now unavoidable. Regardless of action now, the economy will be impacted if we apply the brakes to meet the Paris targets, or the climatic consequences of exceeding 1.5 degrees and indeed 2 degrees will cause significant disruption to countries and economies.
  5. The company acknowledges and apologises for statements and actions made in the past – as well as direct or indirect lobbying – that have had the result of delaying climate action by society. The company resolves to come clean about any of these which have not yet been exposed to public scrutiny. 
  6. There is no long term future for fossil fuels.
  7. Further oil and gas exploration and extraction is incompatible with the Paris carbon budgets and will, if those targets are acted upon, lead to more assets being decommissioned early. 
  8. The company communicates a clear vision for itself and the role it plays in support of society to accelerate the energy transition.

Follow up with action 

Decarbonising the energy system is arguably best done by the players that know that system best. And the oil and gas sector is jam-packed with intelligent, skilled and even – dare to say it – well-meaning people. 

Given the chance, they would perhaps have come up with the solutions at a point when we might have had time still to implement them and avoid the terrifying trajectory towards a 3 degrees world that we are currently on. 

However, they have not!

We’re now instead in damage mitigation and transformative/deep adaptation territory and whilst acknowledging there will be a disruptive transition, we must stop the oil and gas industry creating and marking its own homework. 

The industry has to date failed to do what is needed of it and whatever it now does it needs to focus on reducing the harm already locked in. 

“We must stop the oil and gas industry creating and marking its own homework”

As we know, the trajectory towards net zero by 2050 only means something if the curve leading to it is steep, with radical and disruptive reductions in emissions. 

In the current situation this means a cut of carbon dioxide emissions globally by half by 2030. That translates to a higher annual reduction in emissions than we experienced during the Covid pandemic when economies around the world practically came to a standstill.

And then we need to sequester billions of tonnes of historic emissions in order to have a fighting chance to stay below 2 degrees as we’re already going to exceed the 1.5 degree threshold by the end of this decade. 

In fact, and appallingly, we already “temporarily” exceeded this threshold in June 2023 with likely further exceedances during the coming “global infernal summer” of this dawning El Nino. 

Meanwhile 2023 looks to be yet another record year of carbon emissions. We’re off the cliff, and yet we carry on going… 

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Transformative change

To mitigate further terrible damage that is already locked in, transformative change must start today – with an acknowledgement about yesterday. 

Such change will obviously require the fossil fuel industry, one way or another, to start acting in the appropriate way. This means redirecting serious investment into reducing the demand for fossil fuels. 

Key is investing in genuine renewables (rather than, as Shell is currently doing, steaming away from renewables), into storage, into energy-efficiency measures, and to a limited extent into carbon sequestration technology. 

It could also, for some, if they cannot change business models, mean decommissioning and folding altogether. 

“Key is investing in genuine renewables”

This kind of “suicidal” behaviour is only possible if there is enough external pressure or indeed legislation that makes it impossible for any oil and gas company not changing to continue. (And once that impossibility is realised, then our chances as a species of not committing mass self-suicide start at last to increase…)

Such appropriate action could be: 

  1. Developing non-fossil fuel businesses demonstrated by investment in research & development, and capital investment diverted to non-fossil fuel activities, marketing spend etc.
  2. Immediately ending new exploration and extraction 
  3. Urgent and proactive reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from existing activities including reducing methane leaks
  4. Where, temporarily, oil and gas is still part of the mix, planetarily-harmful emissions must be removed at the point of use through carbon capture and storage solutions.
  5. Introduce appropriate governance to reflect how we will meet the Paris Agreement. This could entail designating a Board member to ensure the company adhered to the Agreement. 

Lobby themselves for the change we ALL need

It is no good playing the victim when one is also actively participating in advocating and lobbying for the continuation of oil and gas in a serious way. 

Oil and gas executives often complain they “cannot” impact the demand for fossil fuels. And as long as there is a lack of clarity about government policy and legislation, the oil majors are in essence given carte blanche to continue incremental change. 

For example, they only move at the pace society allows and when incomplete and untruthful communication about the impact of climate decline is shared with the public, this will not be fast enough.

Thus they need to demand that governments create a policy environment which allows the majors to plan towards a renewable, energy-descended future with confidence. 

The ban of the sale of internal combustion engine cars, running on petrol or diesel by 2030, is a good example of how legislation moves markets and alters business models.

At a basic level, therefore, IOCs need to stop lobbying for the continuation of oil and gas and actively lobby to reduce the demand and supply of fossil fuels, directly and indirectly. 

They should:

  1. Demand policy and legislation that will support them to reduce emissions to meet the Paris Agreement.
  2. Introduce a price on carbon where the cost of emitting carbon will appropriately reflect the damage caused by using oil and gas.
  3. End memberships in trade organisations and industry associations that are not Paris compliant and call these out publicly. Transparency in what such associations are lobbying for is readily available through the likes of the Influence Map, thus not knowing is no excuse. 
  4. Demand that new licences to extract oil and gas are not handed out by governments.
  5. Demand legislation that will stop methane leaks through the practices of flaring (burning methane at point of production) and leaking pipes (making it more expensive to leak it than to stop it).

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What can we do? 

It is not that the oil and gas industry has not improved many people’s lives. One of the authors grew up in Norway in the 1980s and 90s and has her education, and conditions for an improved health and well-being, to thank oil for. But she asks – at what cost? 

Well, we are just starting to experience that, in real time.

It’s disturbing that we seem to accept the idea that the protection and wellbeing of the citizen is a motivation of IOCs by accepting and encouraging their continued operation. 

In reality,  the people at the top of the power structures in the industry, the ecosystem around it like the financiers and investors, and governments, are thinking of and protecting only themselves.

So what can we, citizens, do? 

Whilst we are not for one moment suggesting that individual behavioural change is the answer, we do know our collective actions and positions matter. It makes sense to try to move away from oil and gas in ways that reduce the absolute demand for energy. 

We need to do so collectively, which includes demanding that governments legislate. Using all means available to us as citizens, as individuals, as investors, as workers, and as voters we must together loudly call for an end to the fossil fuel era. 

One obvious starting-point is the need for a swingeing, stringent, loophole-free windfall tax on oil and gas companies.

The current so-called “windfall tax” in the UK is a disgrace, massively financially incentivising further fossil fuel exploration at the worst possible time, and recouping little money from IOCs that are drowning in it, in the wake of the massive price rises that greeted the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

A proper windfall tax is merely the first step on the journey to transformative system change that will give us a shot at not having to endure civilisational collapse.  

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We “consumers” need to seek to wean ourselves off fossil fuel dependency. 

If a time ever comes before the achievement of net zero when some companies are actually being responsible, then we will need to consider boycotting companies that are neither demonstrating such a will nor have a clear plan to meet Paris-style objectives.

We need to call for, and seek help to achieve, a reduction of demand for oil and gas through deep systemic changes, as well as a reduction in overall demand for energy, regardless of the source. 

We need to support the organisations and activists that are actively working to ensure IOCs are being held starkly to account, and support good corporate behaviours if and when they occur. 

Staff, investors, shareholders

In the absence of a turn in the direction we have laid out, those people working inside fossil companies should consider consciously quitting – or becoming whistleblowers or “sources” or “double-agents”. 

They should seek to disclose what is happening within their companies: what is known, what is feared, what is delayed, what is banned, what is planned.

“Investors in, and insurers of, oil and gas corporations need to press the oil majors, hard”

Investors in, and insurers of, oil and gas corporations need to press the oil majors, hard. They have great power, and great incentive – an uninsurable world is a world without the insurance industry, before it is a world in collapse.

IOC shareholders need to ask themselves, honestly: Are you content with what you are investing in right now? How will young people who look to you regard you in years to come, when they learn about your investments, if you did not act once you knew? 

How do you think your grandchildren will feel when they learn about your past? How can you now act to make them proud?

We’ve had enough

The plan of action we have laid out for fossil fuel companies is very demanding. It cannot be considered even remotely likely that they will do much of it without literally being forced to. 

Nevertheless, it is what needs to happen, by whatever means necessary and possible. For as we have said: this issue is in one way more straightforward than most broadly political issues: it is literally in no-one’s interest to fry the planet. 

That fact delivers a small note of light into the gathering darkness of this time. But first and foremost we all need to accept, and say out loud, that our collective addiction to oil and gas is killing us all – and that we have had enough.

China begins drilling another 10,000 meter hole into the earth in search of gas



A 3D printed natural gas pipeline is placed in front of displayed CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) logo in this illustration taken February 8, 2022. (Reuters)

Bloomberg
Published: 21 July ,2023: 10:37 AM GSTUpdated: 21 July ,2023: 10:54 AM GST


China has begun drilling a 10,000-meter hole in the ground for the second time this year as it seeks ultra-deep reserves of natural gas.

China National Petroleum Corp. on Thursday began drilling the Shendi Chuanke 1 Well in Sichuan province, with a designed depth of 10,520 meters (6.5 miles), Xinhua News Agency reported.


The project follows a similar-sized well that CNPC began drilling in Xinjiang in May, described at the time as the deepest ever undertaken in China.

While the earlier well was described as experimental in nature, with the project designed to test drilling technologies and provide data on the Earth’s internal structure, the Sichuan undertaking is seeking to find ultra-deep reserves of natural gas, according to Xinhua.


Sichuan, the southeastern province known for spicy food, spectacular mountain views and pandas, is also home to some of China’s largest shale gas reserves.

The nation’s state-owned oil giants have had only limited success tapping their potential, though, because of difficult terrain and complicated underground geology.

China’s government has put pressure on energy companies in recent years to enhance fuel security by boosting domestic production amid a series of power shortages, geopolitical strife and global price volatility.
TSMC delays Arizona factory that will eventually build chips for iPhones and AI

The company is sending Taiwanese technicians to train US workers at the new Phoenix-based production plant.



By Jess Weatherbed
THE VERGE
Jul 20, 2023

TSMC is also predicting a 10 percent decline in revenue for 2023 amid falling demand for consumer electronics. Photo by VCG via Getty Images

The world’s biggest chipmaker is pushing back the start of 4nm chip production at its new facility in Phoenix, Arizona, to 2025, blaming labor shortages. Apple has said that it intends to eventually source chips for its iPhones and MacBook models from the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) plant in the US, while Nvidia and AMD have also committed to using its production capacity.

The chipmaker’s first Phoenix-based fab, which began construction in 2021, was originally projected to start producing 4nm chips next year. A second fab that will produce smaller, more complex 3nm chips is scheduled to open in 2026.

During the company’s Q2 earnings call on Thursday, TSMC chairman Mark Liu said that the company was “encountering certain challenges, as there is an insufficient amount of skilled workers with the specialized expertise required for equipment installation in a semiconductor-grade facility” in the US (seen via The Wall Street Journal).

TSMC is sending a task force of experienced technicians from Taiwan to the US to make up for lost time

Liu added that TSMC is planning to temporarily send technicians from Taiwan to train local workers at the new Arizona production plant. Nikkei Asia reported last month on a “task force” of more than 500 experienced workers on the way to help set up specialized equipment while also quoting analysts who said the slow progress is due to weaker market demand for TSMC’s chip production.

The chipmaker’s Q2 earnings report showed revenue (NT$480.8 billion or around $15.4 billion USD) down 10 percent and profits (NT$181.80 billion or $5.8 billion) down 23 percent from the same period last year, and its CEO Che Chia Wei projected a 10 percent revenue drop for the full year amid falling demand for consumer electronics. “Higher inflation and interest rates impact end demand in all market segments, in every region in the world,” said Wei. “While we have recently observed an increase in AI-related demand, it is not enough to offset the overall cyclicality of our business.

TSMC expects the capacity shortage caused by high demand for AI-capable chips will persist until next year

The explosive popularity of generative artificial intelligence models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT over the last year has resulted in increased demand for advanced chips required to run them. TSMC acknowledged that this has resulted in a capacity shortage as it struggles to fulfill orders, but Wei remains optimistic that this will improve toward the end of next year. “We are working with customers for the short term to help them to fulfill the demand,” said Wei, adding that the company aims to double its capacity “as quickly as possible.”

Liu said TSMC is working with the US government to maximize the subsidies and tax credits available in the CHIPS Act to cover the first five years of increased premiums from fabricating in the US.


TSMC notes that 66 percent of its total net revenue for 2023 so far came from customers based in North America, dwarfing competing markets like China (12 percent) and EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa, with a combined 7 percent). It’s little wonder that the Biden administration is trying so hard to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing, though the various issues delaying TSMC’s Arizona-based plant are a stark reminder that bringing that chip-making capacity in-house is easier said than done.
Cambodian leader’s son, a West Point grad, set to take reins of power - but will he bring change?


By David Rising The Associated Press
Friday, July 21, 2023

Heng Sinith / AP Photo
Hun Manet, right, a son of Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen, greets his supporters before leading a procession to mark the end of an election campaign of Cambodian People's Party, in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Friday, July 21, 2023. Hun Sen says he is ready to hand the premiership to his oldest son, Hun Manet, who heads the country’s army.

Heng Sinith / AP Photo
Supporters of the Cambodian People's Party participate in a procession to mark the end of its election campaign in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Friday, July 21, 2023. The three-week official campaigning period ended Friday for the July 23 general election. Eighteen parties are contesting the polls, but Prime Minister Hun Sen's ruling Cambodian People's Party is virtually guaranteed a landslide victory.



PHNOM PENH, Cambodia (AP) — Hun Sen has been Cambodia’s autocratic prime minister for nearly four decades, during which the opposition has been stifled and the country has grown increasingly close to China.

With his Cambodian People’s Party virtually guaranteed another landslide victory in this Sunday’s election, it’s hard to imagine dramatic change on the horizon. But the 70-year-old former communist Khmer Rouge fighter and Asia’s longest-serving leader says he is ready to hand the premiership to his oldest son, Hun Manet, a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point who heads the country's army.

Tens of thousands of supporters packed a central square in the capital before daybreak on Friday to hear the 45-year-old’s 7 a.m. kick-off to the CPP’s final day of campaigning before the vote.

With a warm smile and soft tone, a stark contrast to his father’s stern look and military-like cadence, Hun Manet said the CPP had brought peace, stability and progress to the Cambodian people.

“Voting for the CPP is voting for yourselves,” he told the cheering crowd, promising to return Cambodia’s national pride to a “greater level than the glorious Angkor era” of the Khmer Empire, centuries ago.

With the only credible challenge to the CPP barred from participating in the elections on a technicality, Cambodians are being offered little choice but to vote for the ruling party again. The arrests over the past week of several leading opposition figures have served to help stifle visible support for anyone but the CPP on the streets of Phnom Penh.

“Authorities in Cambodia have spent the past five years picking apart what’s left of the rights to freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association,” Amnesty International’s Montse Ferrer said Friday. “Many people feel that they are being forced to participate in this election despite their party of choice not being on the ballot.”

There was, however, a palpable sense of excitement as Hun Manet walked through the crowd of some 60,000 shaking hands and taking selfies, before taking a position next to his wife in the back of a pickup truck for a long parade through the city.

Sixteen-year-old Sin Dina, one of many young people who turned out, jumped up and down and waved the Cambodian flag as Hun Manet drove slowly by, said it was the first time she had the opportunity to see him in person.

“He looks like a gentleman, down to earth, approachable, and he’s well-educated” she said, adding she only regretted she was too young to vote. “He’s an appropriate successor to his father.”

Many in the crowd spoke of Hun Manet’s education — his bachelor’s at West Point being followed by a master’s at New York University and a doctorate in economics from Britain’s Bristol University.

His background has given rise to hope from some in the West that he might bring political change, but it will still take work to regain influence in the Southeast Asian country of 16.5 million, given China’s strategic and economic importance, said John Bradford, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“A Cambodia led by Hun Manet might very well be a stronger U.S. ally, but the U.S.-Cambodia relationship can only thrive if it is built on strong fundamentals of common benefit and mutual respect,” Bradford said. “U.S. diplomats should focus on these things.”

At the top of Washington’s concerns is China’s involvement in construction at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base, which could give Beijing a strategically important military outpost on the Gulf of Thailand.

Ground was broken last year on the Ream project, and satellite imagery of the ongoing construction from Planet Labs PBC taken about a month ago and analyzed by The Associated Press shows a jetty now large enough to accommodate a naval destroyer, if the water is deep enough.

Regionally, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which Cambodia chaired last year, has criticized Phnom Penh for undermining its unity in disputes with China over South China Sea territorial claims.

It is not clear when — or even if — Hun Sen will hand off to his son during the next five-year government term, though most seem to think it will happen early enough for Hun Manet to establish himself in the job before the next election.

Both men refused requests to be interviewed by The Associated Press.

Even when Hun Manet does take over, Bradford said it might not mean any change at all, noting that educational and personal background do not necessarily translate into leadership style or political stance.

“We have a dictator in North Korea who went to school in Switzerland,” he said. “His choices don’t exactly reflect Swiss values.”

Hun Manet has given few clues himself, posting frequently on Facebook and Telegram like his father but revealing little of his political leanings.

And few think Hun Sen will fade into the woodwork, instead choosing now as a good time to turn over power so that he can still maintain a large degree of control from the sidelines, said Gordon Conochie, a research fellow at Australia’s La Trobe University and author of “A Tiger Rules the Mountain: Cambodia’s Pursuit of Democracy,” which was published this month.

“It means that while his son is establishing his own authority as prime minister, he’s still got a relatively young, healthy — physically and mentally — father behind him,” Conochie said.

“The reality is that as long as Hun Sen is there, nobody’s going to move against them. And Hun Sen will be the man in charge, even if his son is the prime minister.”

Hun Sen joined the Khmer Rouge at age 18 as it fought to seize power, losing his left eye in the final battle for Phnom Penh in 1975.

When a series of purges within the genocidal communist regime, blamed for the deaths of some 1.7 million Cambodians, put his own life at risk, he fled to neighboring Vietnam, returning to help oust his former comrades in 1979 alongside an invading Vietnamese army.

By his late 20s he was installed as foreign minister by occupying Vietnamese forces, and in 1985 became prime minister, the world’s youngest at the time.


Ken Bizzigotti, File / AP Photo
Hun Manet, the first Cambodian to graduate from the United States Military Academy, holds his diploma on May 29, 1999, after he received it from the military academy at West Point, N.Y. Cambodia's Hun Sen says he is ready to hand the premiership to his oldest son, Hun Manet, who heads the country’s army.

Heng Sinith / AP Photo
Supporters of the Cambodian People's Party participate in a procession to mark the end of its election campaign in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Friday, July 21, 2023.


Over the decades he tightened his grip on power while ushering in a free-market economy and helping bring an end to three decades of civil war.

Ly Chanthy, who braved a steady downpour to watch Hun Manet’s parade through the city on Friday, said she remembered the Khmer Rouge days and would be forever grateful to Hun Sen, and was happy to back his son.

“I will vote for the Cambodian People’s Party until I die,” said the 58-year-old, a Cambodian flag on a makeshift pole over her shoulder.

“I will never forget that he rescued our lives from the Pol Pot regime.”

Under Hun Sen, Cambodia has seen an average annual economic growth of 7.7% between 1998 and 2019, It was elevated from a low-income country to lower middle-income status in 2015, and expects to attain middle-income status by 2030, according to the World Bank.

But at the same time the gap between the rich and poor has greatly widened, deforestation has spread at an alarming rate, and there has been widespread land grabbing by Hun Sen’s Cambodian allies and foreign investors.

As discontent strengthened opposition, the country’s compliant courts dissolved the main opposition party ahead of 2018 elections, and over the past five years the government has strongarmed any dissent while effectively pushing a message of peace and prosperity.


Heng Sinith / AP Photo
A supporter of the Cambodian People's Party participates in a procession to mark the end of its election campaign in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Friday, July 21, 2023. The three-week official campaigning period ended Friday for the July 23 general election. Eighteen parties are contesting the polls, but Prime Minister Hun Sen's ruling

Heng Sinith / AP Photo
Hun Manet, front right, a son of Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen, delivers a speech before leading a procession to mark the end of an election campaign of Cambodian People's Party, in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Friday, July 21, 2023. Hun Sen says he is ready to hand the premiership to his oldest son, Hun Manet, who heads the country’s

An element of “diehard opposition” remains, but even though a “silent majority” may want more options, most are comfortable enough in their jobs and lives that they’re not motivated to demand change, said Ou Virak, president of Phnom Penh’s Future Forum think tank.

With Hun Manet due to take over as prime minister, and an expected wholesale replacement of top ministers, the election will bring a “generational change” to Cambodia’s leadership, which could begin a “honeymoon period” for international diplomacy, he said.

But people will be disappointed if they expect a sharp pivot away from China, he added.

“China is still Cambodia’s main backer, Cambodia’s main superpower partner,” he said. “So I think any shift to the West will be limited, because you can’t alienate your main supporter.”
___


Associated Press journalists Sopheng Cheang in Phnom Penh, and Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this story.
UK
Thumping defeats for Tories but Rishi Sunak is spared by-election whitewash

The Tories narrowly held on to Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, but were defeated in the two other by-elections


By Alan Young
THE SCOTSMAN
Published 21st Jul 2023

Rishi Sunak has suffered a double by-election defeat in safe Tory seats, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats both overturning majorities of about 20,000.

Labour won Selby and Ainsty and the Lib Dems took Somerton and Frome on sizable swings which will leave many Tory MPs looking nervously at their own majorities.

But the Tory leader was spared the prospect of being the first prime minister since 1968 to lose three by-elections on the same day as Labour failed to secure victory in Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Labour Party candidate Keir Mather celebrates winning with 16,456 votes the Selby and Ainsty by-election on July 21, 2023 in Selby (Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)


Boris Johnson not a factor in Uxbridge as Ulez dominates

Tory Steve Tuckwell held on with a majority of just 495, down from the 7,210 Mr Johnson secured in 2019.

In Selby and Ainsty, 25-year-old Keir Mather will become the youngest MP in the Commons – the Baby of the House – after overturning a 20,137 majority.

He secured a 4,161 majority in the North Yorkshire seat with and Labour said it was the highest majority the party had ever overturned in a by-election.

Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell speaks to the media in Queensmead Sports Centre in South Ruislip, west London, after winning the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election,

The swing from Conservative to Labour of 23.7 percentage points is the second largest swing managed by Labour at a by-election since 1945.


A similar swing across the country would result in it winning more seats than in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, Labour claimed.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said: “This is a historic result that shows that people are looking at Labour and seeing a changed party that is focused entirely on the priorities of working people with an ambitious, practical plan to deliver.

“Keir Mather will be a fantastic MP who will deliver the fresh start Selby and Ainsty deserves.

“It is clear just how powerful the demand for change is. Voters put their trust in us — many for the first time. After 13 years of Tory chaos, only Labour can give the country its hope, its optimism and its future back.”

For the Lib Dems, a 29.0 percentage point swing in Somerton and Frome saw a 19,213 Tory majority turned into a 11,008-vote cushion for new MP Sarah Dyke.


Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said the Somerton and Frome result showed his party was once again winning votes in its former West Country heartland.


“The people of Somerton and Frome have spoken for the rest of the country who are fed up with Rishi Sunak’s out-of-touch Conservative government,” he said.

The victory means Sir Ed has become the first party leader since Paddy Ashdown in the 1990s to win four by-elections.


Unease in Uxbridge

Despite Labour’s success in North Yorkshire, the failure to secure victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London has led to a blame game among senior figures over the capital’s mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) to cover outer boroughs.

Labour candidate Danny Beales had distanced himself from the policy, saying it was “not the right time” to expand the £12.50 daily charge for cars which fail to meet emissions standards.

The defeat in the seat was dubbed “Uloss” by a party insider in a sign of the unease at Mr Khan’s plan.

In his victory speech, new MP Mr Tuckwell said Mr Khan had cost Labour the seat.

“It was his damaging and costly Ulez policy that lost them this election,” he said.

“This wasn’t the campaign Labour expected and Keir Starmer and his mayor Sadiq Khan need to sit up and listen to the Uxbridge and South Ruislip residents.”

Labour shadow cabinet minister Steve Reed acknowledged it had been a factor in the campaign and called for Mr Khan to change course.

The shadow justice secretary said: “I think those responsible for that policy will need to reflect on what the voters have said and whether there’s an opportunity to change.”

For Mr Sunak, the defeats happened as MPs drifted away from Westminster to begin their summer break, so he may be spared a clamour against his leadership.

The Prime Minister could attempt to reset his administration with a Cabinet reshuffle in the wake of the contests – Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has already signalled he will exit the Government, so there is a vacancy to be filled – although No 10 has publicly said there are no plans for a shake-up.

Mr Sunak may have decided the benefits of freshening up his team at this stage would be outweighed by the risk of it being perceived as a panicked response to an electoral setback.


By-elections offer slim hope for Rishi Sunak

Friday 21 July 2023
ITV 
Robert Peston
Peston's Politics


Rishi Sunak avoided a triple by-election defeat, but lost two safe Tory seats.


It would be wrong to say that it was anything but a terrible night for Rishi Sunak and the Tories, with the massive swings against it in Selby and in Somerton.

But the retention of Uxbridge and South Ruislip shows how much work Sir Keir Starmer still has to do to be confident of winning the general election, and why the prime minister will believe there remains a path to victory - or at least to avoid humiliation - for him.

The important background is that only a few days ago Labour thought Uxbridge was in the bag, while Selby was a less certain victory.

The party miscalculated, or rather put too little weight on how disillusionment with the Tories could be trumped by a specific issue of material, economic importance to voters.

To put it another way, cash-strapped Uxbridge voters decided it was more important to use the by-election to protest against the Labour London mayor’s extension of the ULEZ - the capital’s charging zone for vehicles - than to signal disillusionment with an unpopular government.In Uxbridge, a single economic issue - during a cost-of-living crunch - trumped the more general national mood that it is time to get the Tories out.The implications for the general election are significant.

Starmer seems still some way from creating the excitement about Labour that would trump local issues like the Ulez. He needs to do more to give voters a powerful reason to vote FOR Labour rather then just AGAINST the Tories.

Second, for Sunak, it reinforces his conviction that if only he could persuade voters they would be financially better off sticking with the Tories, the gap with Labour would narrow.

His obsession with helping to force inflation below pay rises is the correct political obsession, though it requires voters to see any modest recovery in living standards as sustainable under him and at risk under Labour.

Third, it was a terrible night for anyone who thinks tackling climate change is THE SINGLE PRIORITY.

Uxbridge voters said they cared more about the pounds in their pockets today than global warming.

Fourth, the Lib Dems are definitively and importantly back as the important third force in English politics, and are rampant in the West Country again.

Fifth, Boris Johnson may this morning be feeling a twinge of regret that he did not fight the Uxbridge by-election as a platform for his rehabilitation, rather than stomping off in a huff that MPs punished him for lying to them.

Uxbridge, it turns out, even with its slimmer Tory majority than Selby, was winnable. After a recount.

 

Early peanut introduction gaining traction among US parents, but more work needed


Only 13% of parents, caregivers reported being aware of guidelines introduced five years ago


Peer-Reviewed Publication

NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY

  • Peanut introduction is not well known among those with less access to health-care information
  • Having a pediatrician recommend early peanut introduction was best way for parents/caregivers to be informed
  • Fear of an allergic reaction is the main reason parents decline, but only 1% infants had a reaction, which was mild

CHICAGO --- In 2017, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) announced a dramatic reversal in its approach to peanut-allergy prevention, recommending parents expose their infants as young as four months old to peanuts to prevent peanut allergy. 

In the five years since, early introduction to peanuts has been gaining traction among U.S. parents and caregivers, but more work must be done to communicate the guidelines more broadly, especially to those with less access to health-related information, reports a new study from Northwestern University and the Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago. Among all surveyed parents and caregivers in the U.S., 13% of parents said they’re aware of the guidelines and 48% believed feeding peanuts early prevented peanut allergy, despite knowing about the guidelines or not.

“There was general awareness of ‘If I give these foods early, it will help,’ even if families didn’t know it came from the NIH guidelines,” said Dr. Waheeda Samady, associate professor of pediatrics at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicineand director of clinical research at Northwestern’s Center for Food Allergy and Asthma Research. “There’s still a lot of room for growth in terms of educating families and clinicians about these guidelines.”

The study found that having a pediatrician who recommended early peanut introduction was the strongest factor in whether a parent or caregiver was aware of the guidelines.

“This study is taking a look at something still so new to health systems in the U.S.,” said senior author Dr. Ruchi Gupta, director for the Center for Food Allergy and Asthma Research, professor of pediatrics and a pediatrician at Lurie Children’s Hospital. “As a pediatrician, I’m sensitive to the fact that there is a lot to juggle during a four- or six-month appointment. We need to find ways to support pediatricians in their workflows to incorporate the prevention guidelines.”

The study is the first nationwide survey to examine the impact and implementation of the guidelines since their release five years ago. It will be published July 21 in Pediatrics.

The authors said the findings provide an understanding of where American parents land on peanut feeding and where the gaps are. This includes: 

  • Access to care barriers and systemic racism, which makes this information less known to non-white, less-educated and lower-income parents 
  • Supporting primary care providers to provide this information in a timely way 
  • Public health messaging about reactions to peanuts, since this was the main fear reported in the survey

A closer look at the findings:

The 13% of parents and caregivers who said they were aware of the 2017 guidelines reported being white, between the ages of 30 and 44, educated and high income, or cared for a child with food allergy or eczema, the study found. 

The scientists asked survey respondents if they exposed their children to peanuts 1) before seven months (around four to six months old) and 2) after seven months (between seven months and a year old). Seventeen percent of all parents first offered peanut-containing foods before the age of seven months and 42% did so between the age of seven and 12 months, the study found. Peanut introduction occurred earlier among guideline-aware parents/caregivers, with 31% offering it before seven months. 

Fear of reaction was No. 1 reason for delayed introduction 

Thirty-three percent of those who delayed peanut introduction reported a fear of reaction to peanuts as the most common reason. However, the percentage of actual reported reactions of infants and children during peanut introduction were only 1.4%.

“Previous studies have found that, on average, infant reactions are much milder than older kids’ reactions,” Samady said. “Based on this, I would say you should be more concerned about your older child, not your five-month-old. Statistically, reactions are much milder younger in life.” 

The study found reactions that did occur were mostly dermatological (e.g., a rash) or gastroenterological (e.g., vomiting). 

“The perception amongst U.S. parents/caregivers about how common reactions are in children is much higher than the reality,” Samady said.

Broad dissemination of information, resources to integrate are key

There must be a multifold approach to reaching all U.S. parents and caregivers, Samady said. 

“We have to get to all the pediatricians, not just those who work in academic or affluent areas,” Samady said. “But we need to think outside that box as well.” The information should be shared at community centers, daycares and supplemental nutrition programs for WIC clinics (women, infants and children), Samady said.  

Other Northwestern co-authors include Christopher Warren, Lucy Bilaver, Justin Zaslavsky and Jialing Jiang. 

Experts alarmed as free Barbies given to UK primary schools to teach social skills


Initiative raises questions about whether companies should be able to freely market their products in schools


Peer-Reviewed Publication

BMJ


Toy company Mattel has been criticised for “stealth marketing” after giving away free Barbie and Ken dolls to schools as part of a programme to teach empathy to children, finds an investigation published by The BMJ today.

Investigative journalist Hristio Boytchev reports that Mattell’s “Barbie School of Friendship” programme, in which free dolls are given for children to carry out role play exercises, has been rolled out to 700 schools across the UK, "with the potential to reach more than 150,000 pupils", according to the company.

Mattel says it has sponsored research which shows playing with dolls offers “major benefits” for child development, including nurturing skills like empathy.

But experts have criticised the programme, raising questions about potential negative effects of Barbie dolls in terms of gender stereotyping, questioning the use of research to justify the programme, and asking whether companies should be able to freely market their products through schools.

“The project makes me suspicious that it may be exploitative”, said Philippa Perry, a psychotherapist and author of books on parenting and education. “I feel faintly repulsed by it.” Mark Petticrew, professor of public health evaluation at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine called the programme “alarming.”

“Commercial entities like Mattel are not experts in children’s health or education, they are experts in selling products to maximise profits”, adds May van Schalkwyk, a specialty public health registrar, also at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. “The Mattel materials are heavily branded – why should children be exposed to this type of stealth marketing?”

Lisa Georgeson, a teacher at Lord Blyton Primary School in Tyne and Wear, which participated in the programme, said the company had offered free resources “which, given the current lack of funding in schools, is always a positive.”

On multiple occasions, in information aimed at teachers, parents and the public, Mattel references the studies it has funded as the basis for the programme.

The research is part of a five year collaboration between Mattel and Cardiff University, a Mattel spokesperson says. A paper published in 2020 found higher brain activity in children when they played with Mattel dolls compared with playing games on electronic tablet computers. A Mattel-sponsored reanalysis of the same experiment group concluded in 2022 that the children playing dolls used more “internal state language” describing feelings and thoughts.

Franziska Korb, a psychologist at the Dresden University of Technology, Germany, told The BMJ that the study’s idea was good and the methodology appropriate, but stressed that the studies found significant differences between doll and tablet play when each child was playing alone. When children played with an adult, the differences disappeared.

Korb also says the research cannot be used to make statements about long term developmental or behavioural effects.

Sarah Gerson at Cardiff University, the senior author of both studies and recipient of Mattel's research funding, says she finds the programme interesting but expressed some reservations. She described Mattell’s statement to parents – that the research shows playing with dolls like Barbie offers major benefits – as "a bit strong."

When presented with criticism of the programme, a Mattel spokesperson sent anonymous teacher testimonials celebrating the programme for the positive response it has elicited in pupils and the diversity of the dolls, in terms of body type, disability and skin tone.

The spokesperson also told The BMJ that because of the positive results, the company will consider expanding the programme to other markets.

The Department of Education refused to confirm if it had evaluated the programme and told The BMJ that British schools have autonomy to introduce any educational materials they believe are appropriate.

[Ends]

 

‘I feel like I’m suffocating’: What’s driving suicidal thoughts in the Australian construction industry?


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA





Long work hours and job insecurity are driving suicidal thoughts and distress among some Australian construction workers who are experiencing significant pressure from the industry’s demands.

The strain of working in a sector that by nature is often transient, requires hard physical labour and assumes self-reliance and risk-taking attitudes, is pushing some workers to unendurable distress.

These factors are contributing to the 190 cases of suicide within the Australian construction industry every year, equating to one worker taking their life every second day.

University of South Australia study, in collaboration with mental health charity MATES in Construction (MATES), explored the drivers and experiences of suicidal thoughts and psychological distress of industry workers.

The research team also reviewed coping strategies that workers have adopted during challenging times, as well as what the industry can do to lower the risk of losing more of its workers.

A group of construction industry workers employed in a variety of roles were interviewed about their personal experiences with suicidal thoughts while employed in the sector, or their experience supporting a workmate with suicidal thoughts.

UniSA PhD candidate Simon Tyler from the UniSA Mental Health and Suicide Prevention Research and Education Group says eight themes relating to what may drive suicidal thoughts and distress were identified.

“These included challenges directly related to working within the industry, such as working long hours and the stress and isolation that comes from workplace transience and job insecurity, which are common issues in the sector,” he says.

“The people who discussed these issues saw them as increasing in intensity in recent times and said they played a significant part in experiences of suicidal thoughts and distress.”

Other themes driving suicidal thoughts and distress related to personal issues, such as relationship and family concerns, social disconnection, personal financial hardship, perceived lack of support, alcohol and drug use, child custody/access and legal issues, mental health challenges, trauma, or a significant adverse life event.

Many participants also highlighted the stigma around mental health and suicide among workmates that limits them reaching out for help.

“I think it’s just the stigma,” says one participant. “If you have a broken arm people can see and touch and feel it … but mental health. You cannot touch it and feel it and it’s not accepted.”

Other participants discussed thoughts of feeling trapped and overwhelmed.

“… to get me away from that situation, I was either going to take my life or I was going to quit,” one participant says.

“… you feel like you are suffocating. Like, you know, how the f*** am I going to get out of all this?” says another.

Tyler says for the construction industry, suicide is a significant concern.

“It’s a confronting reality – that one worker every second day is taking their own lives,” he says.

“The nature of the construction industry can be challenging with workplace drivers such as employment uncertainty, as well as industry cultures that encourage self-reliance attitudes and behaviours, but it’s also a sector that is determined to change and help better the lives of the people it employs.”

MATES in Construction is an organisation dedicated to creating this change.

With an aim to reduce the high number of suicides in the industry and raise awareness and peer support skills among workers, MATES delivers prevention and mental health programs to the building, mining, energy and construction sectors.

Since its programs were introduced, the organisation has trained more than 237,000 industry workers and estimates the suicide risk in the industry has dopped by about

MATES SA CEO Alan Suridge says participants had identified what helped them personally or had helped others who were experiencing challenges with mental health and suicidal thoughts.

“Mates in Construction is a three-tiered awareness program that teaches workers how to recognise when a mate is struggling and where to go for help,” he says.

“We then provide free counselling and support services to workers in need. Research such as this enables us to educate workers on signs to look for and how to respond appropriately, creating a safer, more caring workplace community.”

Media contact: Melissa Keogh, UniSA Media Team M: +61 403 659 154 E: Melissa.Keogh@unisa.edu.au

 

Tourists help scientists reveal microplastic pollution on remote Arctic beaches


Samples collected by tourists on the beaches of Svalbard helped scientists detect microplastic from lost fishing gear


Peer-Reviewed Publication

FRONTIERS




Tourists acting as citizen scientists have helped a research team detect microplastics on remote Arctic beaches. The global scale of plastic production means that these tiny fragments of plastic are now ubiquitous, and scientists fear that ocean currents will cause plastic to accumulate in the Arctic, damaging ecosystems. But our knowledge of the scale and type of plastic pollution in the Arctic is incomplete. Researchers recruited holidaymakers to carry out sample collection during cruises, hoping to fill in some of the gaps in their knowledge.

“Plastic pollution is now ubiquitous. It is found on land and in soil and most rivers of the world,” said Dr Bruno Walther of the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, author of the study in Frontiers in Environmental Science. “It is even found in the polar oceans and the deepest ocean trenches.”

Plastic gets everywhere

The Svalbard archipelago is Europe’s northernmost landmass – beautiful, remote, and at risk from microplastics transported by ocean currents. Four tourist cruises visiting Svalbard in 2016, 2017, 2021 and 2022 collected sediment samples: all cruises except 2022 also surveyed macroplastic debris (between 2.5 and 10cm in size) for a different study. Initially, single samples were taken from beaches using simple metal tools and sent to the scientists with metadata and photographs to record sampling locations. Later this was expanded to cover whole beaches with sampling grids.

“Citizen science is possible even in remote Arctic beaches,” said Walther. “This helps to cut down on travelling time, CO2 emissions and costs for scientists, and it helps to engage citizens in a global environmental issue.”

These samples were dried out, weighed, and measured. Each sample was filtered to capture particles 1mm or larger in size. This boundary was selected on the basis that larger particles don’t easily become airborne, an assumption that the scientists tested by keeping a bowl of purified water next to their worksurface and filtering it to search for microplastics after their analysis was complete: no microplastics had drifted from the laboratory’s air into the water. To avoid plastic contamination, the scientists ran an air purifier, wore cotton lab coats, avoided synthetic clothing, and covered samples with aluminum lids. Identified plastic particles were examined under a microscope and then analyzed using spectroscopy.

Warning signs

The scientists found that microplastics of the size they were searching for were not widespread but were very concentrated: the estimated overall level of plastic pollution was comparable to areas formerly believed to be much more polluted than Arctic beaches. Two specific sources of plastic pollution were identified in their samples: polypropylene fibers that likely formed part of a fishing net, and polyester-epoxide particles that probably came from a ship’s color coating or equipment.

“Plastic debris from fisheries is the most direct point of entry to the marine realm, and is often particularly important in remote areas,” said author Dr Melanie Bergmann of the Alfred Wegener Institute. “There is an active fishing fleet operating in the waters surrounding Svalbard but also in the North Sea and north Atlantic. Some of the waste that they emit drifts to the beaches of Svalbard.”

The netting appeared to have fragmented very quickly due to the conditions on the beach: repeated freeze cycles, high humidity from fog, and up to 24 hours of sunlight a day in summer. If this rapid fragmentation occurs at other locations, it could introduce tiny, elusive microplastics into the environment very quickly.

“We still need more sampling in the Arctic, in more places and in more regular time intervals to monitor the situation,” said Walther.

“It should be noted that we only analyzed microplastics particles larger than 1mm,” cautioned Bergmann. “This was because of the citizen science approach and to avoid potential airborne contamination by small particles. But our previous studies on Arctic water, ice, and sediment samples have shown that more than 80% of the particles were much smaller. So, we probably would have found more particles, if we had looked for smaller particles, too.”