UK

Young Swiss workers may be offered visas to fill job shortages under Home Office plans


Ben Riley-Smith
Sun, July 23, 2023 

The Home Office is looking at loosening migration policy - Alamy

Thousands of Swiss young adults could be given two-year visas to come to Britain as waiters, baristas and au pairs under plans being examined by the Home Office.

Officials have approached their counterparts in Switzerland to try to reach a special deal for 18- to 30-year-olds to work in the UK for a limited period, and vice versa.

There are hopes to sign similar agreements with European Union nations, but that is complicated by Brussels’ usual insistence that such deals are struck collectively by the EU bloc.

This loosening of migration policy is a reflection of the tight UK labour market, with unemployment low and yet many job vacancies remaining, which has been cited as a factor in rising prices.

It is also notable given the rhetoric that Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, often employs on immigration, including recently on the need to train more Britons for jobs where there are skills gaps.

The development, first reported in The Sunday Times, would help restaurants, cafes, households looking for a nanny, and other employers to find suitable workers to fill vacancies.

Britain’s departure from the EU, which took effect in January 2020, means that the UK is no longer part of the bloc’s “freedom of movement” rules.

They allowed any EU citizen to freely move to another EU country without needing a visa.

The rule became a central issue in the EU referendum, with those advocating Brexit arguing that the inability to control the number of people who moved from the EU to the UK had to end.

The idea being pursued by the Home Office is for bilateral deals that would allow a number of people aged 18-30 to move to the UK for a set period of time to work.

It would likely be reciprocal, meaning that a similar number of Britons aged between 18 and 30 would be able to move to work in the country that struck the deal.

A Home Office insider insisted that Switzerland, which being outside the EU has more flexibility to make such agreements, was the only country that has been approached so far.

European Commission leaders tend to oppose individual members striking immigration deals with third countries without Brussels being involved in the negotiations.

Such deals are normally struck across the EU’s 27 member states. That approach could complicate any Home Office attempt to make agreements with the likes of France and Italy.

The policy push appears to be in its early stages. A Home Office insider said that government officials, rather than Ms Braverman herself, had reached out to Switzerland.

How tightly to set the post-Brexit immigration regime continues to be an issue that splits the Conservative Party, with fervent Eurosceptics favouring a tougher approach to work visas.

Washington's AI discussions are focused on beating China as part of a new Cold War, says Marc Andreessen

Hasan Chowdhury
Mon, July 24, 2023

Marc Andreessen made the comments on a recent episode of the Joe Rogan Experience podcast.

Michael Kovac/Getty Images for Vanity Fair

AI is shaping up to be a new Cold War with China, according to Marc Andreessen.


The Silicon Valley veteran discussed US policymakers' plans on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast.


It comes as regulators scramble to create rules to govern the technology.

Washington's leaders are determined that the US will beat China in a global race to dominate AI as a new Cold War takes shape, according to Marc Andreessen.

In a recent episode of the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, the Silicon Valley investor and cofounder of VC firm a16z suggested his recent conversations with policymakers on AI have taken on a more competitive tone as soon as China is mentioned.

"The minute you open up the door and talk about China, and what China is going to do with AI, and what that's gonna mean in this new Cold War that we're in with China, it's a completely different conversation," he said.

Andreessen added that Washington's policymakers said not only do they need "American AI to succeed," but that they need to "beat the Chinese." The comments were first reported by Fortune.

The comments from Andreessen come as the ChatGPT-led rise of AI this year has left policymakers grappling with the potential harms posed by the technology and devising rules that govern its use.

Last week, tech leaders from a range of companies leading the AI charge, including OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, signed a voluntary pledge at the White House to deliver safeguards for the development of AI.

However, Andreessen's comments suggest Washington is also keen to aggressively accelerate the development of AI as a means of maintaining an edge over China at a time when geopolitical tensions between the world's two largest superpowers are simmering over.

Andreessen said Beijing's leaders "view AI as a way to achieve population control" because "they're authoritarians."

During a recent trip to China, Elon Musk said he told Chinese leaders that an AI-led superintelligence in the future could have the power to overthrow the government.

Representatives for Andreessen did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment outside regular working hours.

 Business Insider

Marc Andreessen says his A.I. policy conversations in D.C. ‘go very differently’ once China is brought up

Steve Mollman
Sun, July 23, 2023 


Marc Andreessen spends a lot of time in Washington, D.C. these days talking to policymakers about artificial intelligence. One thing the Silicon Valley venture capitalist has noticed: When it comes to A.I., he can have two conversations with the “exact same person” that “go very differently” depending on whether China is mentioned.

The first conversation, as he shared on an episode the Joe Rogan Experience released this week, is “generally characterized by the American government very much hating the tech companies right now and wanting to damage them in various ways, and the tech companies wanting to figure out how to fix that.”

Then there’s the second conversation, involving what China plans to do with A.I.

“It’s a completely different conversation,” said Andreessen, cofounder of the VC firm Andreessen Horowitz. “All of a sudden it’s like, ‘Oh well we need American A.I. to succeed, and we need American technology companies to succeed, and we need to beat the Chinese.’”

China, of course, has a vision for A.I. that many observers find unsettling.

“They view A.I. as a way to achieve population control,” said Andreessen. “They’re authoritarians. So the number one priority for the Chinese leadership is always that the Chinese population stay under control and not revolt or expect to be able to vote or whatever.”

While China wants to use A.I. for authoritarian control within its own borders, it also wants to export those capabilities to leaders in other nations, Andreessen continued. He noted that in the field of A.I. security cameras, for example, China has world-leading companies. “They’re really good at like sniffing out people walking down the street,” he said.

Andreessen noted many nations are deploying 5G networks using Chinese technology. On top of that infrastructure, he said, they can roll out China's A.I. authoritarian surveillance technology.

“What they pitch to the president or prime minister of country X is if you install our stuff you’ll be able to better control your population,” he said. “And of course a lot of people running a lot of countries would find the China model quite compelling.”

Back in America, he continued, “Once you start thinking in those terms. you realize that, actually, all these debates that are happening in the U.S. are interesting and maybe important, but there’s this other much bigger, I would argue more important, thing that’s happening—which is, what kind of world do we think we’re living in 50 years from now?”

In Washington, D.C., he said, “The minute you open up the door and talk about China, and what China is going to do with A.I., and what that’s gonna mean in this new Cold War that we’re in with China, it’s a completely different conversation…One of my hopes would be that people start thinking outside just our own borders and start thinking about the broader global implications of what’s happening.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

The highly-skilled jobs being replaced by AI

Tom Haynes
Mon, July 24, 2023

AI

Workers in the technology sector are already feeling the impact of the dawn of the age of artificial intelligence, with half as many job vacancies as there were last year in some roles, new figures have revealed.

Analysis from job site Adzuna found a significant drop in the number of jobs on offer for more than a dozen careers previously identified as being “most exposed” to AI.

Vacancies for several professions had plummeted by as much as 50pc since 2022, the website found.

Adzuna’s data showed there were 691 listed vacancies in July for graphic designers, compared to 1,641 last year – a drop of 58pc.

Software engineering roles also plummeted by 57pc, from 20,193 vacancies to 8,644.

While a stagnant economy and persistently high inflation are likely to be making employers reticent about hiring, the impact of AI technology such as ChatGPT and Google’s Bard, is also likely to be having an impact, Adzuna said.

Tech workers were a notable casualty of the AI revolution, it said. Roles in data management, IT support analysts and web designers fell by more than a third.

The website identified dozens of jobs which were judged to be the most exposed to AI replacement, using studies published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the University of Pennsylvania, and Goldman Sachs.

AI’s takeover of the workplace has caused disquiet among unions, who have called on the Government to regulate the nascent technology.

Less than half of those surveyed by tech union Prospect said they were confident their employer would consult them about introducing the technology at work.

Andrew Pakes, Prospect’s deputy general secretary, said: “Advances in technology have the potential to bring huge benefits to both employers and workers.

“But there needs to be proper consultation with workers about what is being introduced and how before anything is implemented.”

Now read: The careers that will survive the AI revolution – and pay the highest salary

Britons are increasingly nervous about using AI relative to other countries, according to a report by pollster Ipsos.

Only 12pc of those surveyed by the company said they believed AI would create more job opportunities than jobs that are lost – and just under half (46pc) said businesses should embrace the technology in the workplace.

Customer service jobs are expected to vanish as roles become more automated, the report found.

Roughly four in 10 said they did not expect AI to impact their job in the next year, but the figure fell to one in four when looking five years from now.

Andrew Hunter, of Adzuna, said: “Skilled, white-collar workers whose jobs rely on their wealth of knowledge may be particularly at risk from AI, with the technology increasingly able to emulate responses and outputs.

“Job vacancies have fallen across the board year-on-year, but some jobs have seen larger declines that may in part be due to the increasing adoption of AI.”

However, Mr Hunter said AI “will also create new job opportunities for roles like prompt engineers as companies clamour to make the most of advancements.”

It comes as research by nonprofit employment network Generation found the entry-level tech job had “disappeared”.

The report found 94pc of employers in over 16 industries said they required prior work experience, with two-thirds of companies demanding at least a year of work experience.

A.I. might have what it takes to replace the C-suite — But experts say the top jobs are safe for cultural reasons

Geoff Colvin
Mon, July 24, 2023 

PhonlamaiPhoto—Getty Images

Future CEOs and other denizens of the C-suite may look back on Nov. 30, 2022, with decidedly mixed emotions. That day, the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, reversed years of research findings about which workers would be most threatened by automation. For the first time, instead of low- and middle-skilled workers, it’s top executives who are seemingly in A.I. crosshairs.

“I think decisions CEOs make will be amenable to machines in the long run,” says Anton Korinek, an economist and professor at the University of Virginia’s Darden business school, who has studied artificial intelligence and its effects on labor. “It will be possible to automate everything CEOs can do. The trillion-dollar question, of course, is how long that long run is going to be.”

The reversal of research results has been startling. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development last year published a hefty study on how A.I. will affect workers, based on a survey of experts conducted before the ChatGPT launch. One conclusion: The C-suite needn’t worry. Of 48 different kinds of jobs, “top executives” ranked No. 47 on “automatability.” Only “religious workers” were less threatened.

But more recent studies paint a starkly different picture. A post-ChatGPT study by researchers at Princeton University, the University of Pennsylvania, and New York University, using U.S. Department of Labor data on more than 800 occupations, finds that chief executive jobs are in the top 12% of positions that could be significantly changed or eliminated by ChatGPT-type technology. More broadly, the study finds that “highly-educated, highly-paid, white-collar occupations may be most exposed to generative A.I.”

“What a contrast to what most people were worried about just a year ago,” Korinek observes. “We thought automation may affect lower-skilled physical workers. After the ChatGPT moment, it looks like just the opposite is happening.”

Could A.I. really eliminate C-suite positions, typically the highest paid jobs in business? In theory, yes. Incorporation laws don’t require companies to have anyone in those positions. Charles Elson, a corporate governance authority and an attorney at the Holland & Knight law firm, says those laws require that “the affairs of the corporation shall be under the direction of the board of directors. There’s no law that you have to have a CEO or other officers.”

In practice, however, experts say the C-suite may be more stoutly armor-plated than the academics think. In the real world, technology—even highly-capable technology—isn’t the only factor determining how top-level jobs will get done. A chatbot won’t take over a C-suite job until it can clear three hurdles, none of them easy. In order from easiest to most difficult:
It would have to do the whole job

Sounds obvious, but the difference between doing the whole job and doing almost the whole job is night and day. If A.I. can do much but not all of a CFO’s job, for example, the CFO becomes more productive and valuable. Economists would say the technology complements the worker. But if A.I. can do the whole job, the technology substitutes for the worker, and the worker is unemployed.

Today’s A.I. could be a turbocharged complement to C-suite executives. For example, Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of the pioneering A.I. company DeepMind, has launched a startup called Inflection.ai, which offers a personal assistant that it claims will help you talk through tough decisions, come up with creative ideas, change jobs, learn a new skill, and much else. But current A.I. isn’t ready to negotiate contracts with your suppliers and customers, evaluate your employees, or allocate your company’s capital.

How long before A.I. can do all that and more, enabling it to substitute for C-suite labor rather than just complement it? It could be sooner than you expect. A.I. engines are doubling their capabilities every three to six months, according to Stanford University’s Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence and researchers led by Jaime Sevilla at the U.K.’s University of Aberdeen. Consider ChatGPT Plus, which launched in February, an upgrade on ChatGPT at $20 per month. Original ChatGPT scored in the bottom 10% of test takers on the Uniform Bar Exam, while ChatGPT Plus scores in the top 10%. ChatGPT is limited when it comes to performing advanced math, but ChatGPT Plus includes a tool called Code Interpreter, which analyzes data, creates charts, and performs complex math on the user’s own data.

Even those impressive capabilities leave a long way still to go, however. Korinek believes a world-class A.I. CEO would require long-predicted artificial general intelligence (AGI), which OpenAI CEO Sam Altman defines as “AI systems that are generally smarter than humans.” And that level of technology may not be just around the corner. When Geoffrey Hinton, one of the so-called “godfathers of A.I.,” was asked recently when AGI would arrive, he tweeted, “I now predict 5 to 20 years but without much confidence,”and he later told the Guardian newspaper that he “wouldn’t rule out 100 years.”

Yet even AGI won’t be enough to displace a human C-suite executive, because a digital replacement would have to do more than master tasks. Specifically…
It would have to satisfy regulators

All businesses are regulated, and some — financial services, health care, transportation, manufacturing — are heavily regulated. How much trust will regulators invest in A.I.? For example, imagine that a bank wants A.I. to take over a function previously handled by the CFO — “that is going to be heavily scrutinized by the regulators,” says David Wilkins, a Harvard Law School professor whose work on the role of the general counsel has familiarized him with many regulated industries, “particularly after the information about ChatGPT and its tendency to hallucinate.”

Another example: In any publicly traded company’s SEC annual report, the CFO and CEO must sign statements certifying that “this report does not contain any untrue statement of a material fact or omit to state a material fact,” among many other promises. Would regulators allow A.I. to sign that certification? That puts the government in charge of allowing A.I. to displace CFOs and CEOs.

But even without the regulatory wrinkle, A.I is unlikely to replace a human executive because…
It would have to satisfy society — customers, employees, shareholders, communities

Korinek foresees a future in which humans may be hired for some jobs “merely for the fact of being human,” even if A.I. could do the jobs more effectively and at lower cost. He calls them “nostalgic jobs.” C-suite positions may be prime candidates.

A.I.’s galloping advance “forces us to ask what are the human qualities that we value among our top leaders,” says Wilkins, whose areas of study include leadership and ethics. “It’s not just reaching the correct decision. It’s also about persuading people to feel good about that decision, to be motivated to follow that decision.”

Even if A.I. makes better decisions than humans do, Wilkins believes, that won’t be enough. Will A.I. “make us feel that we have been heard, been valued, been judged by something we can understand, meaning another human being?” he asks. He acknowledges that we have already accepted speaking to bots on the phone, resolving disputes on eBay and Amazon without ever engaging a person, and forsaking human interaction in other ways. But “we’re a long way from giving up on that altogether,” he says. “If we do give up on that altogether, then it’s not clear to me what being human really means anymore.”

The nature of humanity is deep waters even for the C-suite. To take just one more step, let’s imagine that in the coming decades the conception of humanity changes. Indistinguishable humanoid robots — think of the Synths in the TV series Humans, or the Replicants in the 1982 film Blade Runner — become real, powered by artificial general intelligence. Could they displace the C-suite?

Creating such robots will obviously be a much harder job than developing only the AGI component. But whenever that might happen — maybe then.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

Opinion
EDITORIAL: Climate change deniers can't believe their eyes


The Herald Bulletin, Anderson, Ind.
Mon, July 24, 2023 

Jul. 24—Believe it or not, climate change is here.

This summer you can see it, smell it, feel it, even taste it.

Here in Indiana, hazy air from distant Canadian wildfires has left Hoosiers wheezing, coughing and staying indoors, spoiling summer days over portions of the past several weeks.

In the northeast, record flooding has wrought death and destruction.

And in the southwest, temperatures have soared off the charts, surpassing 110 degrees for 19 straight days in Phoenix.

While the United States, like the rest of the world, has experienced severe weather episodes throughout its history, scientists attribute the upward trend in incidence of wildfires, flooding and heat this summer and over the past decade directly to climate change caused by man, most notably through the burning of fossil fuels.

The climate is becoming less stable, leading to more, longer-lasting and wider-spread natural disasters.

Take the Canadian wildfires. (Please take them!)

Given the dry air and abundant trees of the vast country to our north, it's not unusual for forest fires to claim Canadian wilderness each summer. But this is different.

So far this year, more that 27 million acres have been scorched in Canada, overrunning the past record, set in 1995, by more than 9 million acres. Already, nearly 4,500 wildfires have been counted and, as of July 19, more than 800 were still actively burning.

For Hoosiers, this signals more bad news — we likely haven't seen the end of 2023's hazy summer days.

Beyond wildfires, floods and heatwaves, climate change is manifesting other changes dramatically affecting Americans.

Here's one example: In California, near record snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains, abetted by heavy rainfalls in the spring, has brought back to life Tulare Lake, which dates to the Ice Age.

Over the past few months, Tulare has steadily reemerged to overrun 168 square miles of some of the nation's most valuable farm country.

It's an economic and ecological disaster. The waters are polluted by chemicals, manure and diesel fuel. Under the surface, buildings rot and abandoned cars rust. Farmers who work the land for a living are ruined.

Tulare has no natural outlet. It's expected to be an unwanted guest for a long, long time.

Despite record wildfires, unprecedented flooding, searing heat — and the reappearance of an Ice Age lake — many Americans are still skeptical about what is happening.

Findings of a recent survey, show that less than half (49%) believe that human activity causes climate change. Nearly 1 in 10 believe climate change isn't happening at all, according to the poll conducted and published in May by IPSOS, a multinational research and consulting firm.

But climate change clearly is happening. Just walk outside the next time smoke from Canadian wildfires wafts across the Hoosier state. If you won't heed science, perhaps you'll believe your own itchy, watering eyes.

Revealed: Saudi oil wealth backed £4bn Selfridges takeover

Imperialism and world economy : Bukharin, Nikolaĭ Ivanovich, 1888-1938 

Christopher Williams
Sat, July 22, 2023

De facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to boost Saudi Arabia's international clout - BERTRAND GUAY/AFP via Getty Images

Saudi Arabia has emerged as a private financial backer of the £4bn takeover of Selfridges, as part of a shopping spree intended to increase its international clout and boost development of its economy.

The Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, the £500bn Public Investment Fund (PIF), acquired an interest in the historic department store via the Austrian property company Signa Holding, City sources revealed.

The PIF backed the Signa fund that acquired a 50pc stake in Selfridges last August. Signa swooped in equal partnership with the Thai retailer Central Group. Saudi Arabian finance represented a minority of Signa’s contribution.

CANADIAN OWNERS

The pair won an auction launched by the Weston family, owners of Selfridges since 2003, prompted by the death of Galen Weston, the patriarch. Signa and Central’s £4bn bid came out ahead of competition from Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M
Signa is controlled by the billionaire René Benko, who has been named by Austrian prosecutors as a suspect in a long-running political corruption investigation. He has denied any wrongdoing. The PIF previously invested in Signa Sports, an online sportswear retailer which listed in New York in 2021.

The deal for Selfridges would complete a trio of high-profile investments in the UK by the PIF, after it acquired majority ownership of Newcastle United in 2021 and last year became the second-largest shareholder in Aston Martin.

The PIF’s interest in Selfridges via Signa highlights the way Saudi Arabia is using intermediaries – most famously including the Japanese technology powerhouse Softbank and its Vision Fund – to deploy some of its vast wealth.

Selfridges was sold by the Weston family in a £4bn deal - Jonathan Brady/PA Wire

The PIF is the spearhead of efforts by Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), to seek higher returns on the country’s massive oil revenues and gain expertise to drive economic development. It has taken stakes in an array of major Western technology and entertainment companies, and financial institutions.

MBS, who has been invited to visit the UK in autumn despite an assessment by the US that he approved the 2018 murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, is using the PIF’s firepower to improve the Kingdom’s international standing.

He is ploughing hundreds of billions into Neom, a vast urbanisation project that includes a 170km-long, 200m-wide “linear city” in the desert called The Line. The Kingdom aims to attract famous retailers and restaurants.

Saudi Arabia is also spending heavily to bring sports including football, cricket and golf, via its controversial LIV tour, to the Kingdom. It is also funding a new flag carrier airline to take on regional competitors Emirates and Qatar Airways.

The PIF interest in Selfridges opens a new front to the fierce rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which owns the department store’s longstanding London competitor Harrods.

In Qatari hands, Harrods has pursued international expansion, opening stores in airports and in China. Selfridges, founded in 1908, is yet to operate outside the UK.

Signa and Central loaded it up with extra debt under a structure which separates Selfridges’ property from its retail business. The London branch of Bangkok Bank provided a loan of £1.7bn that is secured against the freehold of its flagship London store. The Swiss lender EFG Bank also provided a loan to help fund the deal, secured against Selfridges’ Exchange Square site in Manchester.

As well as providing capital for an acquisition, such debt structures can substantially increase returns. They can also impose higher financial risks on a business, however, particularly when interest rates are rising.

In its most recent accounts, for the year to the end of January 2022, Selfridges retail business reported a sharp increase in sales last year as shoppers returned after the pandemic. Revenues rose 28pc to £653m, although remained £200m short of their pre-Covid peak. Selfridges has since said it had its best Christmas ever last year.

The PIF declined to comment. Signa confirmed the PIF’s interest and said it had no intention to sell any portion of its stake in Selfridges.

A Signa spokesman said: “The ownership of Selfridges has not changed.“

https://jacobin.com/2021/12/weston-family-business-empire-wealth-exploitation-low-wage-labor

The Secret to the Weston Family's Wealth Is Exploitation...

Dec 23, 2021 ... Garfield Weston, who fatefully purchased shares in Loblaw — at the time a provincial food chain — with a “benign fervor.” The family business, ...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-weston-family-investing-strategy-selfridges-sale

Weston family shifts private investing strategy after $6.9-b...

Jun 28, 2023 ... The Weston family, one of Canada's wealthiest, is best known as the controlling shareholder of publicly traded grocery giant Loblaw Cos.

https://www.thewestoncollective.org/the-weston-family

The Weston Family

A Family Tradition. ... Edward Weston (b.1886 - d.1958) began photographing at the early age of sixteen after receiving a Bull's Eye #2 camera from his ...

Lukashenko claims Poland is trying to annex Ukraine, Wagner troops want to invade

Adam Schrader
Sun, July 23, 2023 

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko shake hands during a meeting of the Union State in Moscow, Russia, in April. 

Photo by Mikhael Klimentyev/Sputnik/EPA-EFE

July 23 (UPI) -- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed Sunday that Poland is trying to annex Ukraine while he's had to restrain Wagner Group fighters from invading the country.

Lukashenko's comments were made in a transcript of a meeting with President Vladimir Putin in a meeting in St. Petersburg provided by the Kremlin and translated from Russian.

According to CNN, the Belarusian president is believed to have been largely joking with his Russian counterpart who smiled at his remarks about the Wagner Group.

"I told you a long time ago, we saw this six months ago and discussed it beforehand. Why did I say all this? For us, Vladimir Vladimirovich, this is unacceptable," Lukashenko said. "The detachment of Western Ukraine, the dismemberment of Ukraine and the transfer of land to Poland is unacceptable."

Lukashenko said the transfer of Ukrainian lands to Poland is "payment" for the country's help in the defense of Ukraine.

"The Americans support this," Lukashenko claimed.

Ukraine is "actively involving mercenaries" in the war and "started to involve Poland," Lukashenko said. He claimed Poland has stationed additional troops at the border of Union State -- the name of the supranational alliance of Russia and Belarus for economic and defense policy.

Poland's Interior Minister Mariusz Kamiński announced earlier this month that 500 police officers would be sent to the Belarusian border to beef up security after a surge of migrants attempted to enter the country. Hundreds of people have tried entering Poland from Belarus in recent weeks.

"We can see that the ground is being prepared," Lukashenko claimed. "For example, one of the brigades found its place 40 kilometers (about 25 miles) from Brest."

Lukashenko said Poland has started repairing Leopards on their territory and "activated" an airfield in Rzeszów "where the Americans and others are moving equipment."

The Belarusian leader noted how there is a lot of talk about accepting Ukraine into NATO as he boldly claimed that Poland is trying to annex western Ukraine.

Lukashenko said mercenaries from the Wagner Group that have arrived in Belarus are starting to "stress" him because, he claimed, they want to invade Poland.

"They are asking to go to the West: 'Allow us,'" Lukashenko said. "I said, 'Why do you want to go west?' So they say, 'We control what happens: let's go on an excursion to Warsaw and Rzeszow.'"

Lukashenko said Saturday was a "difficult day" for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which lost 15 Leopards and more than 20 Bradleys in one battle.

"The United States estimates that since the beginning of the counter-terrorist operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine's casualties, or whatever they are called, amounted to 26,000 people," Lukashenko said.

Putin chimed in, claiming the number of Ukrainian casualties was actually "more."

INDIA

Manipur video: India parliament disrupted by protests over violence-hit state

BBC
Mon, July 24, 2023 

A video of two women being paraded naked in Manipur has sparked national and global outrage

India's parliament was adjourned for a third day after opposition MPs demanded a debate on the violence in the north-eastern state of Manipur.

Angry MPs disrupted proceedings by shouting slogans and holding placards in both houses.

Home Minister Amit Shah said he was "ready to have a discussion" and blamed the Opposition for not allowing it.

But protesting MPs demanded that PM Narendra Modi should address the house on the issue.

Tensions have escalated in Manipur since May where ethnic clashes between the majority Meitei group and the tribal Kuki minority have killed more than 130 people and displaced nearly 60,000.


On Sunday, the US expressed concern over reports of a video that showed two women being paraded naked in the state.

The assault on the women took place almost three months ago but became public last week after the video went viral, sparking global outrage.

A US spokesperson called the incident "brutal" and "terrible", Reuters reported.

India is yet to comment on the statement. But earlier this month, the Indian government had responded sharply after a US official said that his country was "ready to assist" in resolving the crisis in Manipur.

Foreign ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said that he had not seen the comments, made by US ambassador Eric Garcetti, personally but that foreign diplomats usually did not comment on India's "internal developments".

The video, which was first circulated on Thursday, shows two Kuki women being pushed around and groped by a mob from a village dominated by Meiteis.

India video shows how rape is weaponised in conflict


India police face scrutiny after women paraded naked


What is happening in Manipur and why?

It sparked widespread condemnation, leading to the arrest of six men. According to a police complaint, one of the women was gang raped. The complaint added that a third woman was also forced to strip but she is not seen in the video.

Questions are being raised about why it took police so long to act - the complaint had been lodged just days after the incident and many of the men are clearly identifiable in the footage.

After the video went viral, Mr Modi condemned the assault as "shameful" and promised tough action but he is yet to make a statement in parliament.

Protests also erupted in Manipur, where thousands gathered over the weekend demanding the arrest of men involved in the assault.

There have also been reports of Meities living in the neighbouring Mizoram state leaving for Manipur and Assam state after an organisation of former insurgents issued a "warning" about their safety.

However, the Mizoram government has assured the Meitei community of their security in the state.

On Sunday, the organisation also clarified that its statement was not a warning, but an "advisory requesting Meities living in Mizoram to exercise caution in the light of the public sentiments".

Manipur assault video emboldens women to speak out

Divya Arya - BBC World Service, Manipur
Mon, July 24, 2023 

Kuki nursing student Chiin Sianching was dragged out of her room, beaten and left for dead

New allegations of violence against women are emerging in the north-east Indian state of Manipur, as the response to a viral video showing two women being paraded naked by a mob encourages others to speak.

Warning: This article contains details some readers may find distressing.

For more than two months, Mary (not her real name), a Kuki woman, could not find the courage to go to the police.

Her 18-year-old daughter had been abducted from outside their home, gang-raped overnight and left badly beaten on their doorstep.

"The attackers threatened that they'd kill my daughter if she spoke about it," Mary told me when I met her outside the relief camp where they have been living since ethnic clashes broke out between the Meitei and Kuki communities in Manipur in May, claiming more than 130 lives.

Then something changed.

A video of two Kuki women being paraded naked by a mob emerged last week on social media.

There was widespread outrage and condemnation, leading to the arrest of six men.

This prompted Mary to make a police complaint.

"I thought if I don't do this now, I won't get another chance." she says. "I will always regret that I didn't even try to get my daughter's attackers punished."

Mary says that her daughter now talks about killing herself, but that she reassures her she can still make something of her life.

Nineteen-year-old Chiin Sianching fears she could easily have met a similar fate.

She and a friend were singled out for belonging to the Kuki community, she says, and attacked in the hostel they lived in while studying nursing in the state capital, Imphal.

"The mob kept banging the door of the room we were hiding in, shouting that your men have raped our women, now we will do the same to you," she says.

She called her mother to say that it could be the last time that she would speak to her. Minutes later the two young women were dragged out on to the street and beaten unconscious - Ms Sianching thinks the mob thought they were dead, so ran away.

Police who found their bodies only realised they were alive after checking their pulses.
Honour and shame

Fake news on social media, purporting to show women being sexually assaulted by Kuki men were fuelling this mob of Meitei men against Chiin and her friend.

Early in the conflict a photo of a dead woman was circulated, apparently showing a Meitei nurse who had been raped and killed by Kuki men. Later, many news outlets debunked this.

Faultlines quickly deepened after the conflict flared up, causing a complete separation of two communities who had previously lived alongside one another. Both now have barricades at village entry points and there are continuing reports of overnight clashes.

Meitei groups have told the BBC that women from the community also faced sexual assault - the BBC has not been able to confirm this. But the video of the two Kuki women being paraded naked united Meitei women in protest too.

Sinam Surnalata Leima, a Meitei women's leader, condemns the attack on the Kuki women as a "heinous crime"

Manipur has a longstanding tradition of women playing a powerful role in civil society, among them the Meira Peibis, or torch-bearers - also known as the mothers of Manipur - who have protested against abuses of power by the state and the army, and human rights violations.

Sinam Surnalata Leima, who leads the Meira Peibis in a group of villages where the two Kuki women in the video were attacked, says that villagers themselves handed over the main suspect to police.

Then the local members of Meira Peibis got together and burned his house.

"The burning is a symbol of the community's condemnation of the heinous crime that those men committed, their actions cannot tarnish the whole Meitei community's honour," says Ms Leima.

The accused's wife and three children have been banished from the village.

But why did the mob act the way it did, in a society that regards its women highly?

What is happening in Manipur and why?

"It was grief and revenge for the Meitei women who had been attacked by Kuki men," Ms Leima reasons.

She does not personally know of any such attacks, but says Meitei women would not discuss a crime of this kind, as it would be considered shameful.

State police said soon after the start of the clashes that they had not received reports of violence against Meitei women, but a spokesman for the Meitei community told me there had been many unreported attacks.

Khuraijam Athouba, who represents a Meitei organisation called Cocomi, said that Meitei women had chosen not to speak about the "violations they faced".

In his view the focus should remain on the issue of killings and displaced people, rather than sexual violence.
Justice

The brother of one of the Kuki women who was seen paraded in the video is tormented by all of these issues.

The mob that stripped and sexually assaulted his sister, also killed their father and their younger brother - he and his mother were saved as they were visiting family in another village when the clashes started.

The 23-year-old man has a blank expression for most of the time when I meet him in a small room in the home of one of his relatives.

I ask him what he would like the government and police to do?

"Arrest each person in that mob, especially those who killed my father and brother," he says.

"And treat both communities with fairness."

Gracy Haokip: "If it wasn't for this video, we wouldn't have got so much attention"

Faith in the federal and state government seems lacking in both communities.

The Chief Minister of Manipur, N Biren Singh, who belongs to the Meitei community, promised the "harshest punishment to the accused, including capital punishment". But when asked about the calls for his resignation for failure to resolve the conflict, he said, "Don't want to go into this, my job is to bring peace to the state and punish miscreants."

Prime Minister Narendra Modi broke his silence on the conflict only after the video of the two women sparked national outrage.

"What happened with the daughters of Manipur can never be forgiven," he said, adding that no guilty person would be spared.

But for Ms Leima, that statement painted her community in a bad light and ignored the violence that has raged since May, causing 60,000 people to be displaced.

"The prime minister spoke when Kuki women were attacked. What about everything we have been facing, are we Meitei women not citizens of India?" she asks.

The video has put the spotlight back on the continuing Manipur conflict.

"If it wasn't for this video, we would have not got so much attention from the government and other political parties," says Gracy Haokip, a researcher supporting victims of the clashes, including the nursing student, Chiin Sianching.

She says it will help the survivors who have courageously shared their experiences while trying to rebuild their lives.

Chiin tells me about the speech she gave to the women in her community, when she told them that she had enrolled into another nursing institute situated in her local area.

"My mother told me that God has kept me alive for a reason, so I have decided I will not give up my dreams."

Powerful Indian women seek reprisals over 'heinous' abuse video

Aishwarya KUMAR
Sun, July 23, 2023 

Women from the Meira Paibis group of the Meitei community in India's Manipur state gather in front of the partially burned house of a man accused of abusing two Kuki women after a video of the incident emerged 

(Arun SANKAR)

Gender trumped tribe for a group of furious Indian mothers who torched the homes of two men from their own community who were accused of abusing women in a video that sparked outrage.

At least 120 people have been killed during months of ethnic conflict between the predominantly Hindu Meitei majority and the mainly Christian Kuki in India's troubled northeastern state of Manipur.

The women from the Meitei community decided to show their anger after the humiliating video surfaced on Wednesday, which reportedly shows two Kuki women being forced to strip naked and then jeered at and harassed by Meitei men in May.

Police arrested four suspects on Thursday but, on the same day, a powerful group of Meitei women known as the "Meira Paibis", or the Mothers of Manipur, set out to burn the homes of two of the accused.

"We condemn the violence against the women and that is why we want capital punishment," Sumati, who gave only her first name, told AFP.

"That is why we destroyed his house."

India is generally traditionalist, conservative and patriarchal but the Meitei have a history of women's activism, with women having a more prominent role in society than elsewhere.

Tens of thousands of people have fled to government-run camps since the violence erupted in May but the video clip has shone a spotlight on the conflict.

- 'Shamed India' -

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said after the video clip emerged that the incident had "shamed India".

Manipur's state government is led by Modi's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party and has said it is investigating the "heinous" incident.

"Both communities are condemning this event," said Suchitra Rajkumari, 42, a local activist. "At least in one point they are agreeing."

The Meira Paibis smashed down the walls of the homes of two of the accused before stuffing bales of hay inside and setting them on fire.

Thangjam Lata Devi, the mother of one of the accused, was told she had given birth to a "spoilt" son. Her home was also torched.

"If they decide to exile you, then that's it," she said.

The Meira Paibis said the homes were burned to send a message.

"We condemn what happened to the women," said Sumati, who helped set fire to one of the houses.

"The accused and their family will not be able to live in their village. That is why we destroyed the house."

The Kuki oppose Meitei demands for reserved public job quotas and college admissions as a form of affirmative action, stoking fears that they might also be allowed to acquire land in areas currently reserved for tribal groups.

Human Rights Watch alleges the policies "promote Hindu majoritarianism".

- Vigilante justice -

But just as Meira Paibis vigilantes administer their form of justice, they have also protected their men.

Some 500 women blocked roads to stop about 100 armed police arresting another suspect linked to the video on Saturday, jeering at security forces in a three-hour standoff.

"Kill us! Take us all!" the women screamed, brandishing burning torches. Their faces were smeared in toothpaste, which they say helps protect against tear gas.

This time, they alleged the men the police wanted to arrest were not responsible and the officers left empty-handed.

The group has blocked roads to bar security forces multiple times during the unrest, accusing the army of being biased towards the Kuki.

"We have a legacy of protecting our people and that gives us inner strength," said Meira Paibis member Matouleibi Chanu.

The Meira Paibis launched dusk-till-dawn patrols after the violence erupted, hammering on electricity poles to raise the alarm.

The army said in June they were forced to release 12 Meitei militia members after troops were surrounded by a 1,500-strong "mob" of women.

"We will do everything to protect our people," said 60-year-old Chongtham Thopi Devi, another Meira Paibis member.

Police said in a statement on Saturday that six arrests had been made in connection with the video and they were conducting "raids" for other suspects.

"We can't use the same force as we do in dispersing men," a senior police officer said, asking not to be identified because he was not authorised to speak to reporters.

"We often find men hiding behind these women in protests and marches... the women lead always."

ash/pjm/pbt

Chevron Extends CEO’s Tenure as Permian Output Surges to Record

Kevin Crowley and David Wethe
Mon, July 24, 2023 



(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp.’s board is waiving the mandatory retirement age for Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth, giving the company more time to find a successor as it notches record production from the world’s most prolific shale basin.

The oil giant, which typically requires CEOs to step down at age 65, made the announcement Sunday as Chevron posted better-than-expected earnings driven by surging output from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. Though Wirth turns 63 later this year, he’ll now be able to stay at the company beyond 2025.

As Chevron’s top boss for the past five years, Wirth has overseen its push into shale production and helped the company narrow its valuation gap with rival Exxon Mobil Corp. While Chevron’s earnings have declined from an all-time high last year, its net income is still more than double the average from 2015 to 2019.

The man who joined Chevron as a design engineer in 1982 plans to grow its Permian output to more than 1 million barrels a day by the middle of this decade and hold it steady through at least 2040. While its recent acquisition of PDC Energy Inc. will allow Chevron to expand in Colorado, Wirth rejected the suggestion that the Permian has become too expensive.

“The Permian is a tremendous asset for our company and for our country,” Wirth said Monday on CNBC. “It is the best place for us to be investing our dollars. It’s the largest single destination for investment.”

Chevron’s second-quarter earnings, originally set to be posted July 28, come as the company heads for record shareholder returns this year. Other management changes in the surprise announcement included the retirement next year of Chief Financial Officer Pierre Breber.

Chevron shares rose 2.2% to $162.14 at 10:40 a.m. in New York.

Though adjusted earnings of $3.08 per share were higher than the Bloomberg consensus, net income dropped to $6 billion, according to a statement Sunday. It’s the fourth straight quarter of lower results for Chevron, which have fallen to almost half the level of a year earlier when oil prices surged after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Chevron maintained its elevated share buyback despite lower commodity prices. At a rate of $17.5 billion a year, Chevron’s buyback — which it’s boosted several times over the past 18 months — is equal to that of Exxon Mobil Corp., which has a 40% bigger market value.

Still, Chevron stock has languished this year, down 12% through Friday compared with a 4% decline in the S&P 500 Energy Index. Wirth has struggled to persuade investors that Chevron has enough fossil-fuel projects in its locker to maintain targeted annual production growth rates of about 3%. Further, the company was forced to redraw its drilling plan in the Permian Basin earlier this year as wells under-performed expectations. By contrast, rival Exxon has a plethora of growth opportunities.

Wirth attempted to ease some of these concerns by agreeing to buy Colorado-based PDC for $6.3 billion in stock in May. The goal is to expand Chevron’s operations in the DJ Basin, which Wirth believes can offer high returns with low risk.

Breber, who was 58 as of February, will retire March 1, 2024, and be succeeded as CFO by Eimear Bonner, 49, currently the vice president and chief technology officer, the company said.

In an interview with Bloomberg News on Sunday, With said the board asked him to stay during a “turbulent time” in the markets. There’s “more that I want to do,” he said, adding that he’s “excited to continue.”

Chevron produced the equivalent of 772,000 barrels of oil per day in the Permian, it said Sunday, registering a new quarterly record for the company in the world’s busiest shale patch.

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Japan has made it even tougher for asylum seekers to stay

Joseph Coleman
Mon, July 24, 2023

In Tokyo, people protest in April against the government's immigration controls, demanding rights for refugees. 

(David Mareuil / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Iranian asylum seeker Afshin had hoped he'd be spending the final decades of his career contributing to a Japanese economy desperate for workers.

Instead, the former construction worker has been sidelined from Japan's shrinking labor force while battling immigration officials. He has endured years of detention.

At one point, he said he was saved from deportation only by a scuffle with officials that left his clothes so bloody that when he arrived at the airport the airline refused to allow him to board.

When he hasn't been in detention in recent years, he has been banned from seeking work or government support.


"It makes no sense," said Afshin, 57, who was a political activist in Iran and spoke on condition that he be identified by only his childhood nickname to protect family there. "They won't let you work, so you can't make money, but they also won't let you sign up for unemployment."

The world's third-largest economy is struggling to repair a labor force cratered by rapid aging. Fertility rates are stubbornly low, and forecasts show the already shrinking population could drop from 124 million to 104 million by midcentury as the proportion of people 65 and older approaches 40%, deepening crises in the labor market, pensions and healthcare.

Mask-wearing commuters make their way through Shinagawa Station in Tokyo. To boost the waning labor force, Japan's government is expanding a foreign skilled-worker system and loosening visa rules for ethnic Japanese born abroad. 

(Jae C. Hong / Associated Press)

Read more: One sign of South Korea's population crisis: Rural elementary schools are running out of children

But Japan has been slow to open to foreign labor, stymied by a historical skittishness about foreigners and fears that significant immigration would lead to crime and instability. The number of foreign-born residents in Japan — mostly from Asia — hit a record high last year of 3 million, or 2.4% of the population, well short of the 13.6% in the United States.

To boost the waning labor force, the government is expanding a foreign skilled-worker system and loosening visa rules for ethnic Japanese born abroad. Tokyo last year launched an overhaul of a foreign trainee program that brings hundreds of thousands of people to Japan temporarily for agriculture, factory work and other jobs. Now it is pushing a plan to hike childcare benefits, hoping to increase birthrates.

But Japan refuses to make it easier for some of the world's millions of refugees to settle here and join the workforce. Instead, the parliament in June passed legislation that could fast-track thousands of asylum seekers to deportation.

Jobless and homeless Vietnamese migrant workers prepare to sleep at a Buddhist temple in Honjo, Japan. 

(Carl Court / Getty Images)

Refugees pose specific challenges to Japan’s foreign worker ambitions. They can show up without any particular skills and sometimes with political baggage at odds with Japan’s foreign policy positions. And Japan is loath to grant residency to foreigners who could require government support or benefits.

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"Refugees for Japan mean difficult people,” said Gracia Liu-Farrer, a sociologist at Tokyo’s Waseda University who studies the plight of the country's immigrants. “So ‘refugee’ does not have a good reputation — it has a social stigma to it.”

Japan grants asylum to only a few dozen of the thousands of applicants each year.

Amid protests in Tokyo and tumult in parliament, lawmakers in June voted to make it easier to forcibly deport unsuccessful asylum applicants. Under the new rules, anyone who has applied more than twice for asylum — such as Afshin — can be sent home.

Critics say the crackdown on refugees is pointless when Japan needs to import labor.

"Nobody's looking at the big picture," said Koichi Kodama, a leading immigration and foreigners' rights attorney. "Instead, it's just a patchwork. Now they're trying to deport a bunch of people, but at the same time they want people to come. There's no balance at all."

Japanese officials say the new rules are aimed at protecting those directly threatened by persecution in their home countries — and quickly deporting those who are not. The measure also closed a loophole that officials said encouraged unsuccessful applicants to keep applying repeatedly just to stay in Japan.

Justice Minister Ken Saito recently asserted in parliament that a third of rejected asylum seekers who had resisted deportation were guilty of non-immigration-related crimes, including violent offenses.

Japanese opposition lawmaker Taro Yamamoto, top left, tries to jump toward Hisatake Sugi, seated, as ruling coalition lawmakers push a controversial immigration bill to a vote in June. 

(JIJI Press / AFP via Getty Images)

Read more: Afghan refugees in U.S. face uncertainty as legislation stalls

"Deportation refusal and long-term detention are urgent problems that need to be dealt with quickly," he said earlier this year. "Unfortunately, there are those who misuse or abuse refugee recognition applications as a means of avoiding deportation."

The Justice Ministry says more than 4,000 rejected asylum seekers are still in Japan after defying deportation orders, and an additional 1,400 on provisional release from detention have gone missing.

The sometimes raucous parliamentary debate over the measure shed further light on a system widely criticized by human rights groups, citing tactics — such as banning many asylum applicants from lawful work — that seem to be aimed at encouraging asylum seekers to give up or never come to Japan in the first place.

"The system makes it so difficult to live in Japan that people just want to go home," said Atsuko Nishiyama, an immigration lawyer.

The harshest criticism has been directed at Japan's feared immigration detention centers, where inmates can be held indefinitely while their cases are adjudicated. Former detainees say at best they are treated like criminals; at worst, they can be denied critical medical care and subject to physical and emotional abuse. Since 2007, 17 detainees have died in custody, including several by suicide. Hunger strikes are not uncommon.

Recent protesters have rallied around the case of a 33-year-old Sri Lankan woman, Wishma Sandamali, who died in 2021 after officials dismissed her repeated requests to be sent to a hospital. A criminal case against officials is stalled, but the family is pursuing a civil lawsuit.

People protest against Japanese immigration policies in April. 

(David Mareuil / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Once asylum seekers make their applications, the chances of approval are razor-thin. Japan joined the U.N. Refugee Convention in 1982 but has historically rejected about 99% of applications.

Read more: Migrant fathers celebrate their day at a family shelter in Mexico with gifts and prayers

Attention has focused on what critics say is Japan's overly strict interpretation of the definition of refugee in international law: somebody with "a well-founded fear" of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, political beliefs or membership in a particular social group.

Saito has repeatedly defended Japan's selection system, pointing out that from 2018 until 2022, the government's rejection of refugee applicants had been upheld by courts in 104 of 109 lawsuits.

"I believe that we must always put our hands on our hearts to ensure that there are no mistakes in our own judgments and the judgments of government offices," he told reporters in June. "But I don't think that means we have to change our system now."

The total of 202 people granted asylum last year was a record high spurred by an influx of former Japanese Embassy employees who fled Afghanistan amid the Taliban takeover. The countries with the most applicants were Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Myanmar.

By comparison, both Germany and the United States recognized some 45,000 refugees each in 2022, the United Nations reported. Even the tiny Netherlands recognized more than 14,000 asylum seekers that year.

Japan has responded to allies' demands for help in handling global crises by accepting outsiders under other legal categories separate from refugees. The country, for instance, has taken in 121 Syrians fleeing war by the end of last year, but as international students. A couple of thousand Ukrainians have been welcomed at least temporarily as "evacuees" and given work permits and government support.

The refugee recognition system operates largely out of public view, and activists and human rights lawyers regularly refer to it as a "black box," arguing that immigration officials issue verdicts without explanation, make unreasonable demands for evidence of persecution and hand out recognition and work permissions — or prohibitions — arbitrarily and with scant oversight.

"In most countries, the question is who is eligible to be accepted," Afshin said on the sidelines of a protest outside parliament in June. "But in Japan, the question is who is eligible to be rejected."

Afshin has witnessed the vagaries of the system firsthand over the last three decades.

He arrived in Tokyo on a short-term visa in 1990 to flee death threats as a member of a group opposed to Iran's Islamic government, he said, joining a stream of Iranians taking advantage of Japan's then-relaxed attitude toward visitors from the oil-rich nation.

Afshin said he, like many other Iranians at the time, worked illegally with no problem for about 10 years, until he was arrested in a crackdown on people who had overstayed their visas. He applied for asylum in 2002.

When he went in for an interview at Immigration, he told officials he had been threatened at gunpoint in Iran. The officer, he said, asked for a photo. "I laughed," Afshin said. "Who is going to take a photo at that moment?"

Since then, he has been detained a total of four years as appeal after appeal was turned down.

He was paroled from detention but banned from work and national health insurance, though he worked on the sly until about eight years ago, when the government started to tighten controls over parolees.

Afshin's fourth application for asylum was rejected this year and he was given a one-year visa on humanitarian grounds, but the document still bans him from working or applying for unemployment insurance.

The stress has taken its toll. He downs handfuls of prescription pills for a heart condition and PTSD he blames on his attempted deportation. Over the past year, he had to raise thousands of dollars through an aid organization to pay full-price for an angioplasty to remove plaque from his arteries. He said his doctor has advised another round may be necessary.

Afshin said he fears he still could be deported at any time.

"I first went into immigration detention 22 years ago and I haven't gotten anything from them," he said. "Why do I have to be grateful for this residence card? Maybe 20% of what I feel is appreciation, but the other 80% is resentment."

Not all asylum seekers are denied a work visa. Myo Kyaw Kyaw, 38, a member of the persecuted Rohingya Muslim minority from Myanmar, arrived in Japan in 2006 with a visa. He said he’d been targeted for his pro-democracy activism.

But his applications for asylum have been rejected three times, and he has been detained for about 2½ years. His third application was rejected in February, but instead of being deported, Japanese officials issued him a six-month visa allowing him to work 28 hours a week. The visa, which is good until mid-August, has allowed him to work for the first time since 2013. He is appealing the February decision.

Now he's employed by the Anti-Poverty Network, a nonprofit that supports asylum seekers, and is a regular at pro-refugee rallies in Tokyo. But he is tormented by uncertainty.

"I don't know how long I can do this," he said, adding that he'd prefer death in Japan to being sent home, where his presence could endanger his family. "I'm going to die here. I don't want to die in Myanmar."

Many asylum seekers privately concede they work on the side despite the ban, particularly in construction and demolition work, though they say employers fearful of prosecution are reluctant to offer steady gigs, and pay is lower than for those with official work authorization.

Nishiyama, the attorney, said some employers come to rely on such workers to do punishing labor most Japanese are unwilling to perform.

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"It would be much better for Japan to give those people special permission to stay here," she said. "Immigration makes them out to be criminals, but from my experience, most of those people would live stable lives here if they had visas."

Meanwhile, many of Japan's would-be refugees are dependent on handouts like the bags of food and other necessities distributed every Sunday at St. Alban's Anglican-Episcopal Church.

The volunteer operation is run by American filmmaker Thomas Ash, director of "Ushiku," a 2021 documentary about detainees at a center north of Tokyo. The film, which Ash shot with hidden cameras to get around the center's photography ban, features the anguished stories of several refugees — including a hunger striker — as they grappled with the physical and emotional abuse of detention.

Ash said the idea of documenting the refugees' plight came when he started visiting detainees at the center a few years ago as part of a volunteer church group and was disturbed by their condition.

"I prayed about what I could do and I felt that I should preserve evidence in case someone died," he said.

On a recent Sunday, Ash and other volunteers hosted a coffee and pastry hour for refugees and handed out plastic bags of rice, coffee, soy milk, curry, candy and other foods.

One of the men gathered there, Julius Nde, 53, said he came to Japan in 2018 because of fighting in his native Cameroon. He'd lived in Japan previously for three years but was forced to leave for overstaying his visa in 2007.

He said he was frustrated by immigration officials' refusal to give him refugee status or permission to work legally.

"Sometimes I visit my friends where they work and ask for money," he said. "They give me an allowance. That's how I live my life in Japan."

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.