Resource Diversity In Pakistan: How Mineral Resources Can Aid Economic Revival? – OpEd

A sign in Chinese and English at the entrance of the road to Saindak copper-gold project in Balochistan, Pakistan. Photo Credit: ماني, Wikipedia Commons

 July 31, 2023 By Yousma Gul

The first-ever Pakistan Minerals Summit will be held on Tuesday, August 1, 2023, under the umbrella of the Ministry of Petroleum and Nutshell Conferences Group. The highly anticipated event is entitled “Dust to Development: Investment Opportunities in Pakistan” and seeks to examine and take use of the enormous potential of the mining sector.

The conference on minerals is expected to bring together significant corporate figures from Pakistan, international investors, and sector specialists for thought-provoking debates. The event will also feature participation of renowned ministerial delegations from United Arab Emirates, Qatar and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, demonstrating world’s interest in Pakistan’s mining industry. The event will stimulate networking, knowledge-sharing, and exploration of attractive investment prospects with an emphasis on building global collaboration and partnerships. The conference will determine the trajectory of the sector’s prosperity. The initiative aims to work together to enhance economic growth, job creation, and technical innovation in the mining industry via thoughtful discussions and innovative collaborations.

All this falls under under Pakistan’s flagship project Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) which has been established with a joint collaboration of Pakistan’s government and its military. SIFC has already initiated its task to improve many sectors in Pakistan such as Agriculture, Information Technology (IT), Energy, Minerals and Defense etc. It will prepare a long-term road map for growth, development and investment in the relevant fields while capitalizing on low-hanging fruits

The mineral sector has always been highlighted as a basis of economic strength. Several developed countries like China, United States of America, Turkey, Italy, Chile, Australia, etc have always valued the significance of mines and minerals sectors and resultantly, this sector has contributed greatly to their GDP. Pakistan is blessed with abundant availability of mineral reserves covering an area of 600,000 sq. Km. 92 minerals are explored in Pakistan out of them only 52 have been exploited, reporting a total production of 68.52 million metric tons per year. However, the total mineral produced are exported at trivial prices and only a handful of one to two minerals are value added in the country that includes gypsum to manufacture cement and salt for Chlor-Alkali industries.

Pakistan has fairly large mineral resources ranging from metallic, non-metallic, fossil fuels and precious gemstones. Metallic minerals are composed of one or more metallic elements; possess thermal and electrical conduction properties and are economically valuable. Estimated chromite ore deposits in Pakistan are over 2.572 million tons with annual production around 237,000 metric tons. As per the Ministry of Energy, Pakistan has one of the world’s largest reserves of chromite mostly found in Muslim Bagh, Chagai, Kharan, Malakand and North Waziristan. Most of the extracted chromite in the country is exported to developed countries. Pakistan’s largest copper and gold reserves are found in Chagai Dist of Balochistan (Saindak and Reko Diq); Reko Diq reserves comprising copper bearing gold contain 0.29 gm / Ton of gold; therefore, basing on gold to copper ratio, it is amongst top five global gold deposits.

The largest deposits of iron ore are found in Kala Bagh. Recently discovered iron ore deposits by Global Survey of Pakistan (GSP) at Dilband in Kalat, Uthal in Lasbela and Nizampur in KPK are of great economic significance. Current estimated reserves of iron ore are 1,400 million tons with annual production of around 600,000 metric tons. Whereas, Lead and Zince’s present estimated available ore, in the country is over 23 million tons; Duddar mine (Balochistan) is one of the largest lead and zinc mine in Pakistan. Estimated deposits of Antimony are 86,000 tons but detailed investigations may prove more tonnage. 

While, non-metallic minerals consist of chemical elements that usually don’t feature the properties of metals; weak electrical conductors and economically less valuable except power resources like oil, gas and coal. Barium minerals possess high specific gravity; suitable for oil drilling, x-ray shielding and manufacturing of paints and papers. Barium minerals possess high specific gravity; suitable for oil drilling, x-ray shielding and manufacturing of paints and papers and their estimated reserves for barites are 13.71 million tons and the domestic annual production of barites is around 220,000 metric tons. Similarly, the annual production of China Clay, which is mainly used in the ceramic industry, in Pakistan is about 20,000 metric tons, largely in KPK and Sindh. Large group of rocks forming silicate minerals that makeup over 50% of earth’s crust; mainly used in industry for manufacturing glass and ceramic products. Large deposits of feldspars are available in KPK, Chitral, Sindh and Northern Areas. Its domestic yearly production is around 40,000 metric tons. 

Punjab and Sindh’s land is filled with most of the Fuller’s deposits with annual production of around 9,000 metric tons which is used in oil refining and other industries. Furthermore, Sizable deposits of fireclay are found in Punjab and the same remains the main fireclay consumers. Its total reserves of fireclay is over 100 million tons and domestic production during the year 2017-18 was more than 838,000 metric tons. Silica and Glass Sand’s total reserves in Pakistan are estimated to be 557 million tons and domestic production during the year 2017-18 was more than 367,000 metric tons. It is mainly used for road surfacing, construction and other manufacturing materials. Gypsum is used for cement, plaster of paris, soil conditioning and decorative purposes; Anhydrite can be used as a substitute or in combination with Gypsum. Presently, estimated gypsum reserves are over 4,850 million tons. Domestic production of gypsum during the year 2017-18 was more than 2.5 million tons. The magnesite, which is suitable for the production of refractory bricks and fused magnesium phosphate, resources in Pakistan have been estimated at 12 million tons. Domestic yearly production is around 19,000 metric tons (2017-18). The rock salt resource estimate in Pakistan is billion tons and its domestic annual production is around 3.7 million tons. Exploration and evaluation of these deposits has proved the existence of inexhaustible reserves of rock salt in Salt Range. 40% of the total output is consumed by soda ash, caustic soda and leather industries; the remaining is marketed for domestic/human consumption.

Sherwan deposit (Abbottabad) is the primary producer of soapstone in Pakistan. Due to its thermal and fire-resistant properties, it is widely used in architectural applications. The domestic annual soapstone production is more than 138,000 metric tons (2017-18). As per estimation by GSP, Solid Fuel or Coal is more than 186 billion tons of reserves present in Pakistan (the largest being in Sindh; 185 billion tons). The annual production of indigenous coal in the country is expected to exceed 7.00 million tons in the coming years. Almost entire indigenous coal production is being used for firing brick kilns and by some industrial units. Three coal-fired power plants of 50MW capacity each based on fluidized bed technology have been set up at Khanot near Hyderabad. 2 x Thar coal-powered generation units with a capacity of 330 MW each are also functional. Not only these but some of the important gemstone deposits are also found in KPK, GB and AJK. 

Pakistan’s mineral resources hold immense untapped potential for uplifting the country’s economic performance. The government’s commitment to attracting foreign investment underscores the nation’s determination to unlock its mineral wealth and derive economic growth through sustainable mining practices. The idea behind untapping Pakistan’s mineral resources is to make Pakistan self-reliant in the area of manufacturing value-added chemical products by utilizing our own minerals with complete indigenous resource sustainability.

Yousma Gul is a lecturer at International Islamic University, Islamabad

Riots and 'zero crime' policy: The number of prisoners in France hits record high


By Euronews with AFP

Published on 31/07/2023

The overall occupancy rate is currently 122.8% and stands at 146.3% in remand prisons.

France’s chronic prison overcrowding is likely to get even worse as the country has broken a new all-time record for the number of inmates in their prisons: with 74,513 people currently behind bars.

Since the end of 2022, there has been one record after another broken, almost month after month, with the latest figures marking the sixth time the European country exceeded its previous high number.

According to official figures published on Monday, there were 74,513 inmates in prisons, 2,446 more compared to last year.

There were also more than 15,818 more than in summer 2020, when the Covid pandemic led to a drastic fall in the number of inmates.

France had gradually returned to its pre-Covid incarceration levels, but last April the country went over the 73,000 prisoner barrier for the first time. Then it hit another record after surpassing 74,000.

The overall occupancy rate is currently 122.8% and stands at 146.3% in remand prisons, where those waiting for their trial are held in custody and people with short sentences are incarcerated.

This overcrowding means that 2,478 inmates have to sleep on mattresses on the floor. A number that has grown significantly compared with the 1,872 on 1 July 2022 and only 422 three years ago.

Riots in France raise the average

The big question is what's behind the rise in prisoner numbers?

France is one of Europe's worst performers and was severely criticised in January 2020 by the European Court of Human Rights for the "structural" overcrowding in its prisons. It was condemned again on 6 July.

In spite of this, the overcrowding shows no signs of abating.

After the outbreaks of riots that followed the death on 27 June of Nahel, a teenager killed by a policeman in Nanterre, the government called for a "firm", "rapid" and "systematic" response.

More than 742 people were sentenced to prison terms and "more than 600" were incarcerated, according to the figures published by the Minister of Justice.

The association Observatoire international des prisons (OIP) stated that Prison overcrowding could worsen over the next few months as the Olympic Games approach, while the authorities set themselves the target of "zero crime".

On 19 July, a parliamentary report stressed the "urgent need" to introduce a prison regulation mechanism.

Despite this, there has been no further steps in this direction.

According to prison administration statistics, short sentences in particular have soared over the last thirty years. The time spent in detention has also increased, rising from an average of 8.6 months in 2006 to 11.8 months in 2020.

Discovery Of Whale Carcass In Hong Kong Sparks Anger Over The Potential Damage Done By Sightseers

The foundation said in its previous statement that a crowd of people was spotted approaching the animal, believed to be a Bryde's whale and to be around seven metres long.

Whale Carcass In Hong Kong Photo: Department of Natural Resources 

and Environment Tasmania via AP

 01 AUG 2023

The discovery of a whale carcass in Hong Kong waters on Monday has sparked an outpouring of grief on social media, with many comments blaming the mammal's death on sightseers. Many residents thought the dead mammal was the whale that has attracted groups of sightseers since it was first spotted in the city's waters in mid-July.

Compass Chan, scientific officer of Ocean Park Conservation Foundation Hong Kong, didn't confirm whether it was the same whale. But he said an initial check on the dead whale found a new wound on its back, in addition to two old wounds.

“It's a pity," Chan said at a media briefing. “If it really died, I think it's a good chance to let everyone to think seriously how we should get along with other species in the nature.” Its cause of death would have to be confirmed by a necropsy, he said.

After the carcass was found in the waters in Sai Kung — a district known for known for its hiking trails, beaches and islands — many residents have taken issue with the whale-watching activities seen over the past two weeks.

They accused the sightseers of causing the death of the whale because of their ignorance. Some reposted a Canto-pop song whose title translated as “Whale Eater” on their social media.

The foundation said in its previous statement that a crowd of people was spotted approaching the animal, believed to be a Bryde's whale and to be around seven metres long. It warned that human activities can cause stress and lead to life-threatening consequences, saying the whale already had propeller wounds.

The government said Friday night that the necropsy might take several days and the results would serve as a reference for it to handle the emergence of whales in Hong Kong in the future.

Fanning The Flames

To conduct a comprehensive analysis of what makes up wildfire smoke plumes, Rajan Chakrabarty’s team spent 45 days traveling to different wildfire locations in the western United States where they sampled gaseous smoke and aerosol species and analyzed their chemical and optical properties. This research was conducted as part of the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign, a joint venture led by NOAA and NASA. CREDIT: Steve Brown, NOAA

 August 8, 2023  0 Comments

By Eurasia Review

As Canadian wildfire smoke continues to impact large swaths of the United States, resulting in poor air quality and negative health outcomes for millions of Americans, more people than ever are feeling the effects of longer fire seasons and a changing climate. Now, researchers at Washington University in St. Louis have discovered that wildfires may have even bigger climate impacts than previously thought.

In a new study published in Nature Geoscience, researchers led by Rajan Chakrabarty, the Harold D. Jolley Career Development Associate Professor in the Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering in the McKelvey School of Engineering, found that wildfires are causing a much greater warming effect than has been accounted for by climate scientists. The work, which focuses on the role of “dark brown carbon” — an abundant but previously unknown class of particles emitted as part of wildfire smoke — highlights an urgent need to revise climate models and update approaches for the changing environment.

To conduct a comprehensive analysis of what makes up wildfire smoke plumes, Chakrabarty’s team spent 45 days traveling to different wildfire locations in the western United States, where they sampled gaseous smoke and aerosol species and analyzed their chemical and optical properties. This research was conducted as part of the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign, a joint venture led by the National Aeronatics and Space Administration and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“The conventional understanding has been that dark plumes of wildfire smoke contain black carbon soot, which absorbs solar radiation, while lighter plumes contain mostly organic carbon that scatters sunlight, meaning it offsets the absorption or warming effect of soot,” Chakrabarty said. “Typically, climate models ignore or dismiss organic carbon as insignificant compared to black carbon when it comes to warming, but that is not what field observations reveal.

“This is not a binary picture. Instead, we are looking at an entire continuum where there is strong light absorption by organic carbon, or dark brown carbon, similar to black carbon,” he said.

During their sampling of ground and airborne smoke from largescale wildfires, Chakrabarty’s team encountered an abnormally strong light absorber in plumes that wasn’t black carbon, yet it accounted for more than half of observed total absorption.

Chakrabarty turned to Rohan Mishra, associate professor of mechanical engineering and materials science, to investigate this unknown material and its properties. Arashdeep Thind, who earned a doctorate in materials science and engineering in 2021 while working in Mishra’s lab, used a sophisticated electron microscope — housed at the Center for Nanophase Materials Sciences, a U.S. Department of Energy user facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) — to measure the optical properties of individual particles from the smoke samples Chakrabarty’s team collected.

“We knew there was something unusual with this material in its composition, structure and absorption spectrum,” Mishra said. “By looking at the local atomic structure of the dark brown particles — that are the size of only a few tens of nanometers — and simultaneously measuring their optical properties using the electron microscope at ORNL, we were able to decipher that these particles are similar to black carbon. It’s likely that they form similarly to soot in the high-temperature flames along the leading edges of wildfires.”

Mishra and Chakrabarty found that dark brown carbon absorbs slightly less light than black carbon on a per particle basis, but it is four times more abundant in plumes. This means that stealthy dark brown carbon particles in wildfires probably result in much more climate warming than previously recognized.

They also noted that these particles absorb wavelengths of light from ultraviolet to near infrared, covering the entire visible spectrum. Surprisingly, this potent brown carbon is resistant to sunlight-driven photochemical bleaching that makes light-absorbing organic aerosols lose their absorptivity in the atmosphere.

The team’s findings have broad implications. With wildfires predicted to rise globally in the coming decades, the role of dark brown carbon produced in fires will be even more impactful. Chakrabarty and Mishra say this underscores the need to harness multidisciplinary collaboration to revise existing climate models to account for the unexpected effects of brown carbon in wildfire smoke. Without this critical adjustment, they said, there is the risk of underestimating the global warming effects of wildfires, and thus, the urgency of climate change mitigation efforts.

 

New World Order: From The Legacy Of Colonialism To Sovereignty And Development – OpEd

Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg. Photo Credit: Rosatom

 August 7, 2023 

By Professor Maurice Okoli

Many of today’s problems affecting the majority of the world, including Africa and Russia, are a direct consequence of the persistence of old colonialism and the imposition of renewed forms of colonialism. 

Conversely, the notorious prosperity of the West can be attributed to the rules of a predatory world order generated by this colonial legacy. The justifications, forms and technologies of colonialism have changed over the centuries, but to this day their disastrous consequences have not been fully overcome. 

The “golden billion” continue to feed their prosperity and finance the maintenance of their “freedoms and values” by siphoning off all kinds of resources from the majority of the world. This is vital for it to maintain this world order in perpetuity. Russia, Africa and most other countries do not agree to submit to such a dictatorship. 

Today it is increasingly clear that a new world order is irreversible. Its foundations are political, economic, cultural and informational sovereignty, true equality, development and prosperity of citizens, universally agreed norms of international law and mutual respect, the rejection of neocolonial plunder and of all modern forms of colonial exploitation and oppression. 

How does Russia see Africa’s role in the new world order? What forms of new colonialism are being imposed on the global majority by the West today? How can Russia and Africa cooperate in strengthening the sovereignty of international cooperation members and countering the diktat of powers that aspire to world hegemony? 

Can Africa play a critical role in resolving a number of the world’s problems, including the resolution of the most severe international conflicts? What place in word and deed does the West ascribe to Africa in its models of world order? Why do Western politicians’ words and deeds in Africa diverge?

Russia and Africa are working together to ensure Africa’s sovereignty. The outcomes of the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg showed that Russia is willing to work hard to compete in Africa, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

He described the competition between several countries in their approaches to the African continent as a “normal process”. “We have to work hard to keep up with this competition. It is a great responsibility and a lot of work. The summit has shown that we are ready for this work,” Peskov added.

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development also proposed to send additional employees of embassies and trade missions to Africa and to create an additional department for work with African countries. African countries regard Russia as a trustworthy partner in their quest for economic independence, Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said on Wednesday.

“African countries are shifting from a struggle for political sovereignty and independence to a struggle for economic sovereignty. They regard us as a trustworthy partner in these processes, willing to provide Russian businesses the opportunity to grow and prosper. And we are eager to share our knowledge and technologies,” he added.

“We had a substantive and engaging exchange of views on the entire range of themes of strategic cooperation between Russia and African countries. We have identified the main areas for further joint work and outlined plans to strengthen foreign policy coordination and increase trade and investment flows, as well as industrial cooperation between Russia and the countries of the African continent,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said during his closing speech at the second plenary session, posted tothe official Kremlin website.

It is, however, expected that the results will form a good foundation for the further deepening the Russian-African partnership in the interests of the prosperity and well-being of the peoples both Russia and Africa.

Despite unprecedented pressure from the West, the forum and summit were attended by official delegations from 48 countries (27 countries were represented by the head of state or the second highest official) and the five largest integration associations of the continent.

The summit resulted in the adoption of five key documents:

1. Declaration of the second Russia – Africa summit
2. Declaration of the second Russia – Africa summit on the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space
3. Declaration of the second Russia – Africa summit on Cooperation to Ensure International Information Security
4. Declaration of the second Russia – Africa summit on Strengthening Cooperation to Combat Terrorism
5. Action Plan of the Russia – Africa Partnership Forum for 2023–2026

Two documents were also signed with leading African integration associations in Vladimir Putin’s presence:

1. Memorandum of Understanding between the Russian Government and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) on fundamental issues concerning relations and cooperation
2. Memorandum of Understanding between the Russian Government and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) on fundamental issues concerning relations and cooperation

By the joint declaration, Russia and Africa seek to build on the historical and time-tested friendly bilateral ties. It further reaffirmed the need to jointly oppose neo-colonialism, and support the influence of Africa as an essential pillar of the multipolar world.

That marked the second time the summit events of such a magnitude with a focus on a wide range of relations between Russia and the States of the African continent were held. Organized by the Roscongress Foundation, St. Petersburg hosted the second Russia-Africa summit on 27–28 July 2023. 

Professor Maurice Okoli

Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He is an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club. As an academic researcher and economist with keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: markolconsult@gmail.com

Century-Old Coral Reveals Pacific Western Boundary Current Strengthened As Climate Warmed, Impacting El Niño

 

A diver collects a coral sample, illustrative of the process used by researchers in climate studies. One such sample was analyzed to reveal that during the past century, the western boundary current in the southern Pacific Ocean has intensified with global warming, a team of researchers reported recently in Nature Geoscience. The current plays a pivotal role in influencing weather patterns, including phenomena such as El Nino, which, having officially arrived in June 2023, may potentially set a new record for global average temperature. CREDIT: Xingchen (Tony) Wang

 August 8, 2023 

By Eurasia Review

The Pacific Ocean’s western boundary current, which forms a critical regulator of sea surface temperature and weather patterns, has significantly strengthened as the planet warms, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The study provides the first evidence that the western boundary current in the South Pacific has significantly strengthened during the 20th century in response to global warming, contributing to an intensified equatorial undercurrent, according to Boston College Assistant Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Xingchen (Tony) Wang, a co-author of the report.

Records drawn from coral samples also showed a pronounced recurring pattern of variable ocean-atmosphere climatic conditions – known as decadal oscillation – indicating that periods of enhanced western boundary current correspond to periods of increased sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, according to report, prepared by Wang, National Taiwan University’s Haojia Ren and her team, and collaborators from Taiwan’s Academia Sinica, University of California, Berkeley, University of Texas at Austin, and Hawai’i Pacific University.

“This result confirms the significant role of the western boundary current in controlling the heat balance of the equatorial ocean, as predicted by climate models,” Wang said.

The team examined the historical clues embedded in century-old coral, probing the chemical components of tropical coral’s skeleton for data on environmental and climatological conditions in the past, much like examining the rings that mark the year-by-year development of trees. The study, titled “Increased tropical South Pacific western boundary current transport over the past century,” explored how global warming has led to the strengthening of the western boundary current in the South Pacific, which has had a significant effect on the broader global climate.

Wang said that the team set out to better understand how the western boundary current has changed as the climate has warmed. The ocean acts as the largest heat reservoir in the Earth’s climate system, Wang said.

“More than 90 percent of the global warming heat has been absorbed by the ocean,” Wang said. “The circulation of the ocean plays a key role in redistributing the ocean’s energy and in doing so, regulates global and regional climate. This means that the strengthening of the western boundary current has an effect on weather events that take place hundreds if not thousands of miles away.”

He added, “The tropical Western Pacific Ocean is the largest warm pool in the world. It is particularly important for a climate phenomena known as El Niño.”

The El Niño, as NOAA has officially declared its arrival in June, has been closely associated with increased flooding and rain across the Americas and the Pacific.

The western boundary current system in the tropical Pacific Ocean transports water into the equatorial region and regulates its sea surface temperature, influencing El Niño and La Niña activities. However, due to the limited availability of long-term observational data from satellites and instruments, it has been unclear whether the western boundary current is strengthening or weakening in the context of global warming, Wang said.

The researchers collected a century-long coral sample from the Solomon Sea and used a mass spectrometer to analyze the isotopic composition of nitrogen – namely the ratio of nitrogen-15 and nitrogen-14 – preserved in the coral sample, which served as a proxy for western boundary current changes, according to the report.

The coral records also showed a pronounced decadal oscillation, indicating that periods of enhanced western boundary current correspond to periods of increased sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. 

Wang said the findings indicate that the continued strengthening of the western boundary current will keep playing a significant role in the global climate and the extreme weather events that have become increasingly common in the 21st century.

“We were a bit surprised that the western boundary current has indeed strengthened under global warming,” said Wang. “It implies that the western boundary current will continue to play an important role in regulating tropical and global climate in the future. For example, enhanced western boundary current might make it easier to develop strong El Niño events, such as the one we are currently experiencing.”

Wang said the next steps in this research will continue to use coral samples to study ocean circulation changes and how those changes interact with the climate system, both today and in the past.

Current Estimates Of Lake Erie Algae Toxicity May Miss The Mark

 August 8, 2023 

By Eurasia Review

There is more to a harmful algal bloom than the green stuff in water that meets the eye – specifically, a changing hazard level of toxins produced by the microbes that make up the scummy mess.

A new study analyzing toxins produced by Microcystis, the main type of cyanobacteria that compose the annual harmful algal bloom (HAB) in Lake Erie, suggests that the toxicity of the bloom may be overestimated in earlier warm months and underestimated later in the summer.

The research is part of a large project, led by The Ohio State University, designed to develop a more accurate harmful algal bloom toxicity forecast for Lake Erie.

The toxicity relates to the bloom’s concentration of the liver toxin microcystin, of which there are hundreds of varieties called congeners defined by very small molecular differences. The analysis showed that the toxicity level of the most common congeners found in Lake Erie relates strongly to nitrogen – when there is more nitrogen present in early warm months, dominant congeners tend to be of the less toxic variety. Later in the season, when nitrogen is nearly gone, the balance of dominant congeners changes to a more toxic type.

“The different levels of toxins will ultimately affect the toxicity and the human health impacts. We know that different populations are more sensitive to the toxins, especially those who have non-alcohol fatty liver disease,” said Justin Chaffin, senior researcher and research coordinator at Ohio State’s Stone Laboratory and lead author of the study. “Knowing which congeners are around can better inform beach management, better inform water treatment, and better inform those who need to avoid the water when they should avoid it.”

The research was published recently in the journal Harmful Algae.

Lake Erie supplies drinking water to an estimated 11 million people in the United States and Canada, and the project led by Chaffin is geared toward developing toxicity forecasts that best prepare water treatment plant operators for the removal of microcystin. A high concentration of the toxin overwhelmed a Lake Erie water treatment plant in 2014, leading to the three-day Toledo drinking water crisis.

But not all microcystin congeners are alike in terms of toxicity. The most abundant and most studied congener in Lake Erie, known as MC-LR, has been shown in recent research to be somewhere in the middle, in terms of toxicity, compared to other congeners in the lake’s bloom. In this study, Chaffin and colleagues set out to determine the location and abundance of these different congeners to get a better handle on toxicity trends over the busy summer season.

The team collected samples at 15 sites stretching from Maumee Bay to the Central Basin from June through September in 2018 and 2019, focusing on identifying the concentration of specific microcystin congeners present over time and the changing nutrient levels in the water.

Along with the common MC-LR congener, two other congeners were found to dominate the microcystin populations: MC-RR, whose toxicity is about one-fifth of MC-LR, and MC-LA, estimated to be about 2 1/2 times more toxic than MC-LR. MC-RR, which is 17.5% nitrogen, was more dominant early in the season, when the water was rich in nitrogen, and MC-LA, which is 10.8% nitrogen, dominated later in the season, when nitrogen levels had substantially dipped – however, the total microcystin concentration was lower at that time as well, meaning overall toxicity may not have dramatically increased.

Detecting congeners doesn’t come easily – it requires highly sophisticated equipment and is more expensive than the analysis tool ELISA that’s routinely used to measure microcystins in the bloom – which is why current toxicity estimates are probably off, Chaffin said.

“Because ELISA measures overall concentration, basically you’re overestimating the toxicity in early summer when the majority of microcystins are a low-toxicity form, and then as summer progresses, the bloom is making more toxic forms, so you may be underestimating the toxicity,” he said.

An investment in routinely gathering congener data could improve modeling efforts to predict how the toxicity of the HAB in Lake Erie changes each year. Chaffin co-authored another recent study that showed using data on toxin concentrations (from existing ELISA measurements that don’t take congeners into account), water currents and a bloom’s increase in toxin production in a one-week weather map-like simulation improved the accuracy of microcystin forecasting by 79%.

“We took all the data we could find and put it in a hydrodynamic model and ran it under simulations,” Chaffin said. “So if you know where the toxins are today and make a map of the bloom like a weather map, you can watch where it’s going to go in the next seven days. And if you add biology data to the simulation, you can get a better prediction of where the highest toxin concentrations will be.

“The next step would be to merge the bloom location and toxin concentration forecast with different congeners so we could really forecast the toxicity of the bloom. But lab capabilities would need to be improved to make that possible.”