Saturday, August 19, 2023

During pandemic, proponents of 'doing your own research' believed more COVID misinformation

by Chris Barncard, University of Wisconsin-Madison

As the virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic first began to spread around the planet, it brought along a new vocabulary. Unfamiliar phrases like "flatten the curve," "COVID pod" and "essential worker" infected regular conversation. But another—"do your own research"— was already well-known to Sedona Chinn, who studies misinformation and health communications.

"We had heard the phrase a lot before," prior to the pandemic, says Chinn, a University of Wisconsin–Madison professor of Life Sciences Communication who began researching the idea in 2019 with University of Michigan communications professor Ariel Hasell. It was "coming from a lot of online, anti-vaccine rhetoric."

Both researchers knew people who were willing to "occasionally do weird, unproven stuff, typically around health," Chinn says. "It's not like they reject doctors and medical expertise, but they think their opinion can be equally valid if they do their own research."

Then the calendar turned over to 2020, and "do your own research" had simultaneous moments in both discourse (especially online) related to the complicated and often confusing global public health emergency, and in the relatively chaotic national politics in the United States.

The phrase's use grew quickly, Chinn says, "popularized by Q-Anon and other conspiratorial groups, in more extreme and more dangerous ways. Now, we're following what seem more like connections to certain political views than calls for more and better scientific research."

According to a new study Chinn and Hasell published recently in the Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review, people who were supportive of the phrase "doing your own research" were more likely to be distrustful of scientists and more likely to believe misinformation about COVID-19. Even when controlling for the type of media they consumed, the DYOR fans among the researchers' panel of about 1,000 survey respondents grew more distrustful and more ill-informed about COVID-19 even as news of successful vaccine trials emerged.

"We measured their trust in science and COVID beliefs in December 2020 and again in March 2021," Chinn says. "We wouldn't normally expect this to change too much, especially over such a brief period. But for people who felt positively about 'doing your own research,' we did see that their distrust in scientific institutions and misperceptions about the pandemic grew."

What may be most fascinating to Chinn is that telling someone to "do your own research" is generally excellent advice.

"There's a lot of research showing that people who do more information seeking about politics are more civically engaged and people who do more information seeking about their health conditions have better treatment outcomes," she says. "So, it is objectively good to do your own research."

Those good outcomes are hard to square with the correlation between DYOR and COVID misinformation, but the phrase does not necessarily have a benign history. "Do your own research" gained initial popularity as a slogan of Milton William Cooper. In the 1990s, Cooper wrote a book and hosted a radio show about his theories of a vast global conspiracy tying together UFOs, the Kennedy assassination and the AIDS epidemic, among other subjects.

"DYOR messages can promote skepticism in the guise of being informed and independent," Chinn says. "(People believe) you should 'do your own research' because maybe you can't trust what they're telling you. And so, you need some alternative research or alternative information to balance out (what you believe are) potentially untrustworthy institutional sources of knowledge."

Chinn is expanding on the initial study's findings with new work analyzing the content of social media posts that call for readers to "do your own research," examining whether people who support "DYOR" actually do engage in their own research, and studying how suggestions to "do your own research" may affect people's beliefs and behavior.

"As we dig further, we're finding that 'do your own research' is really not associated with much information seeking," Chinn says. "And it begins to look more like an expression of an anti-establishment world view than an interest in finding more or better evidence on any given topic."

More information: Sedona Chinn et al, Support for "doing your own research" is associated with COVID-19 misperceptions and scientific mistrust, Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review (2023). DOI: 10.37016/mr-2020-117

Provided by University of Wisconsin-Madison

Research shows some people believe scientists threaten their group's power, values

REIFICATION

Selling a juicy burger with a photo: The effect of induced positive consumption simulations on purchases

by Marilyn Stone, American Marketing Association

Researchers from Yale University and University of Southern California have published a new Journal of Marketing study that synthesizes and evaluates over 50 studies conducted over four decades to determine when mental simulation prompts heighten consumers' purchases.

The study is titled "EXPRESS: From Mentally Doing to Actually Doing: A Meta-Analysis of Induced Positive Consumption Simulations" and is authored by Gizem Ceylan, Kristin Diehl, and Wendy Wood.

Enticing people to buy a juicy burger or the new Apple Vision Pro spatial headset computer can involve the same marketing approach: prompting consumers to mentally simulate future purchases or consumption.

Marketers often prompt mental simulations via visuals or via verbal calls to action. For example, restaurants try to entice patrons with mouthwatering photos on their Instagram accounts or menus. The Apple Vision Pro launch video shows people using the new headset computer in a hope that consumers will simulate how they would use the device. A commercial for EasyJet, a leading European airline, asks people to "Imagine Where We Can Take You" along with visuals of flying over clouds and of different holiday locations from beaches to cities.

The question is: How effective are these mental simulations? Mental simulation has been shown to improve action readiness and is thus used in advertisements and other communications to facilitate purchase and consumption. "However," note the researchers, "although some studies have noted positive influences on behavioral intentions and behavior, others have found minimal or even negative effects. It is difficult to interpret these findings given how the modality of simulation, frequency of induction, type of consumption experience, and target populations vary widely in research and practice."

Behavioral impact

This new study synthesizes and evaluates over 50 studies conducted over four decades (from 1980 to 2020) to analyze when mental simulation prompts heighten consumers' purchases. It produces several important findings for the industry:

Mental simulation increases behavioral responses; however, the average effect is small, suggesting that while mental simulation works in general, marketers must identify ways to strengthen its impact.
The study identifies more powerful mental simulation prompts—such as dynamic visuals with augmented reality (AR) or 360-degree videos, along with verbal instructions to go along with visuals—and guides marketers how to use such interactive media.
The frequency and spacing of the mental simulation determines its effect on consumer behavior and the study offers guidance to managers for effective ad planning and delivery. For example, when marketers place the same message across different platforms, consumers may be exposed to the same content over and over again within a single episode of mental simulation. In addition to repetition being annoying in general, mass repetition is not just ineffective but it also reduces consumption, likely due to habituation.
Simulation has limited impact on behavior in online samples in which participants may not be sufficiently motivated to engage in mental simulation.

"While mental simulation inductions are a common approach found across many industries and product categories, our systematic, large-scale analysis suggests that marketers should carefully consider the right approach, context, and frequency of prompting mental simulations," the researchers say.

Real-world implications

This study offers the following lessons for Chief Marketing Officers:

Using more interactive and engaging simulation prompts, such as 360-degree videos and AR tools, is especially effective in increasing behaviors. Investing in such technologies and approaches could be particularly important for companies that rely on consumers simulating a future experience or outcome.

Some existing technologies and channels—such as animated graphics and email marketing—can be leveraged for simulation-based communications. Luxury brands already employ unboxing videos on TikTok and Instagram to stimulate viewers' imagination and influence their future purchases.

Marketers must consider combining visual and verbal prompts. For instance, in the case of online reviews, consumers find it easier to process the review when the photo and text convey similar aspects of one's experience, which, in turn, increases the review's perceived helpfulness.

For marketers employing mental simulation in their campaigns, controlling—especially limiting—daily exposure is particularly important. For instance, Hulu has taken steps to ensure its viewers can encounter the same commercial only twice per hour, four times per day, or 25 times per week. Platforms such as Facebook and Instagram now allow marketers to place limits on daily or weekly exposure, which we recommend should be set even lower than those employed by Hulu.

The online studies yielded non-significant results as opposed to in-person studies, which produced significant effects. Mental simulation prompts were ineffective for online respondents, possibly because they were not sufficiently involved or engaged in the simulation process. This finding may be particularly alarming for managers because a large chunk of advertising spending is on TV and digital channels that may be consumed during distracting activities and can lead to active disengagement from ads. As a workaround, ads that include mental simulation may better fit into channels in which consumers initiate the marketing activity, such as search ads that ensure greater consumer attention and engagement based on declared interests.

More information: Gizem Ceylan et al, EXPRESS: From Mentally Doing to Actually Doing: A Meta-Analysis of Induced Positive Consumption Simulations, Journal of Marketing (2023). DOI: 10.1177/00222429231181071

Journal information: Journal of Marketing

Provided by American Marketing Association Consumers value products more on sunny and snowy days but not when it rains

Researchers develop bioinspired geolocation method based on daytime sky polarization

by Chris Packham , Tech Xplore

The first guy on Earth who ever got lost probably said to himself, "I could really use a set of geographic coordinates expressed as latitude and longitude right about now." Time passed, neocortexes evolved, and eventually, compasses and sextants gave way to global navigation satellite systems for geoposition and navigation.

However, these systems are often unreliable and susceptible to jamming and spoofing. Magnetic compasses, while still useful, are subject to magnetic interference, and celestial navigation is only possible on a clear night without the interference of light pollution.

A French research team developing an alternative geoposition method sought examples of geolocation methods from biology. While many species of birds and insects calibrate their magnetic compasses via the movements of stars around the Earth's magnetic pole, they noted that some migrating bird species calibrate their internal compass during the day based on skylight polarization patterns. The theory suggests that sunlight is scattered by small particles present in the Earth's atmosphere, and over the years, researchers have developed GPS-free navigational techniques exploiting this model.

The researchers cited the specific example of the Cataglyphis desert ant. These ants forage in daylight for dead insects, hunting in a zigzag pattern. Each time an ant changes direction, it raises its head and takes a reading on the sun. When it finds a food source, it returns directly to the nest in a straight line to minimize its direct exposure to sunlight in the high heat of the desert, essentially computing its course via biological skylight polarization analysis.

The research team now reports a system called Skypole that uses a polarimetric camera to measure the degree of skylight polarization rotating with the sun. By processing captured images of the sky, the team was able to determine the position of the north celestial pole and pinpoint the observer's latitude and bearing. Their study is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

It is generally accepted that animals use skylight polarization to determine geolocation, but it is unclear how they use that information. The team took a cue from a theory that animal species like Cataglyphis use temporal properties of the skylight polarization pattern to position themselves, and developed a system that compares polarimetric images of the sky in order to find true north.

The team compared images taken at two distinct moments with time intervals ranging from 30 to 60 minutes and computed the differences in two features: the degree of linear polarization and the angle of linear polarization. Their algorithm accounts for the constancy of the degree of linear polarization at the celestial north pole, as well as the two variables captured in the images.

The method they describe has a number of advantages: Using only visual information, the system derives geolocation with reasonable accuracy, without reliance on time, date or initial position. Their image processing package is minimal and operates with modest computing resources. However, the image acquisition intervals and the system's degree of accuracy currently preclude certain geolocation applications.

The researchers write, "It is worth noting, however, that this algorithm has been kept as simple as possible and that a more sophisticated data processing algorithm would no doubt greatly improve the accuracy … in future studies, special emphasis should be placed on image filtering in order to reduce the influence of noise." Additionally, they note that their study could contribute a new hypothesis regarding the use of visual information by animals for geolocation.

More information: Thomas Kronland-Martinet et al, SkyPole—A method for locating the north celestial pole from skylight polarization patterns, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2023). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2304847120

Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Russia's Luna-25 probe enters Moon orbit

The lander was carried into space by a Soyuz rocket launched Friday in Russia's Far East.

Moscow's Luna-25 lander was successfully placed in the Moon's orbit Wednesday, the first such Russian mission in almost 50 years, space agency Roscosmos announced.

With the lunar launch, Moscow's first since 1976, Russia is seeking to restart and rebuild on the Soviet Union's pioneering space program.

"For the first time in Russia's contemporary history, an automatic station was placed in lunar orbit at 12:03 pm Moscow time (0903 GMT)," a Roscosmos spokesperson told AFP.

The probe will orbit 100 kilometers (62 miles) above the Moon's surface, before a planned landing Monday north of the Boguslawsky crater on the lunar south pole.

"All the 'Luna-25' systems are operating normally, and communication with it is stable," the spokesperson said.

Cameras installed on the lander have already taken distant shots of the Earth and Moon from space.

The lander, weighing around 800 kilograms (1,764 pounds), was carried into space by a Soyuz rocket launched Friday from the Vostochny cosmodrome in Russia's Far East.

It is expected to stay on the Moon for a year, where it is tasked with collecting samples and analyzing soil.

The mission comes as the future of Russia's long-running cooperation with the West in space looks in doubt, as Moscow presses ahead with its offensive in Ukraine.

Russia said it would go ahead with its own lunar plans, despite the European Space Agency announcing it would not cooperate with Moscow on future missions over its actions in Ukraine.

Russia to launch lunar mission Friday, first in nearly 50 years

Talking with Webb using the Deep Space Network

by Thaddeus Cesari, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

NASA's James Webb Space Telescope is nearly 1 million miles (1.5 million kilometer) away from Earth, orbiting around the sun-Earth Lagrange point 2. How do we send commands and receive telemetry—the science and engineering data from the observatory—from that far away? We use the DSN (Deep Space Network) to communicate with the observatory. We receive data when we have a contact with Webb using a DSN antenna

Sandy Kwan, the mission interface manager for Webb within the DSN, notes that "each mesmerizing Webb image that has graced our screens would not have been possible without the support of the DSN antennas and personnel, the backbone of interplanetary communication."

The DSN has three sites around the world, each positioned 120 degrees apart. There are antennas in Goldstone, California; Canberra, Australia; and Madrid, Spain. This allows us to communicate with Webb at any time of day, as the Earth rotates. The DSN is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Southern California. Kari Bosley, the lead Webb mission planner at the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI), walks us through more of this communication process between Webb and the DSN.

"How do we plan contact time with Webb? It's not as simple as picking up the phone and calling the telescope. In order for Earth to connect with Webb there are a few things that happen prior to scheduling a contact. On average, the Webb mission operations center connects with the observatory at least two to three times in a 24-hour period. There are mission planners at STScI where the Mission Operations Center (MOC) is located, mission schedulers at JPL, and of course at the DSN complexes. The mission planners at STScI work together with the mission schedulers at JPL to create contacts with Webb.

"How do we know when we can contact Webb? The Flight Dynamics Facility at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center sends the MOC at STScI the view periods in which the observatory is visible from those three different DSN sites. The mission scheduler compares those times to what is available in the scheduling system where other missions are competing for time with their spacecraft.

"All missions require specific amounts of time to communicate with their spacecraft, and the timing depends on where the spacecraft are in space. There are times when conflicts between multiple missions request the same resource at the same time. When this happens, our mission scheduler at JPL will negotiate with other missions to come to a compromise that satisfies all of the missions. Once all negotiations are complete, schedules are sent to the mission planners up to six months in advance. The scheduling for the first eight weeks is fixed, with no changes allowed unless there is an emergency or important event with a spacecraft. The later periods are subject to continuing negotiations.

"Each of the DSN complexes has different types of antennas, including 70-meter (230-foot in diameter), 34-meter (111-foot in diameter), and 26-meter (85-foot in diameter) antennas.

"The DSN complexes use the 34-meter antennas to talk with Webb with the 70-meter antennas as a backup. The DSN supports different radio frequency allocations, such as the S-band and Ka-band frequencies that Webb uses. S-band has a lower bandwidth, and we use that to send commands to the spacecraft (e.g., start recorder playback), to receive engineering telemetry to monitor the health and safety of the observatory, and for ranging. Ranging is the process of determining Webb's position and trajectory by the delay between when the signal is sent up and when it is received back on the ground.

"We use Ka-band to downlink stored science and engineering data, and some telemetry from the spacecraft. If we used S-band to downlink data, it would take many days to download each day's data. With Ka-band, it takes much less time, and we can usually complete download all of the stored data in a couple of hours. The high gain antenna on Webb is used for Ka-band downlink and the medium gain antenna is used for S-band uplink and downlink when both antennas are pointed directly at the complex for a contact. Most of our contacts are two to six hours in length. Normally, we request at least four-hour contacts. Since DSN hosts almost 40 different missions, scheduling is complicated.

"There are times when our contacts are very short and times when they are longer. In each contact, it is important to downlink as much data as we can since the telescope continually makes science observations and acquires more data. When we are not in contact, the telescope continues to autonomously perform science observations. These data are stored on a solid-state recorder and downlinked on our next contact. After the Webb MOC at STScI receives the data and ingests them into the Barbara A. Mikulski Archive for Space Telescope for processing and calibration, the observers will receive the data from their observations.

"Those interested in seeing the downlink and uplink between NASA missions and the DSN can visit the 'Deep Space Network Now' website at https://eyes.nasa.gov/dsn/dsn.html. You can view the missions and resources that are actively being used at DSN."

Provided by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

Ground segment testing a success for James Webb Space Telescope

Immigration slowed in COVID-19 pandemic, but migrant jobs not filled by U.S.-born

by Greg Watry, UC Davis

kitchen worker — Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

A prevailing narrative about immigration is that migrants displace U.S.-born residents in the workforce, but new research from University of California, Davis, economists shows that's not the case.

The study, published in the Journal of Population Economics, details how the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decrease in immigration to the U.S. and how jobs often filled by migrants were not filled by U.S.-born residents.

"We found that this drop in immigrants corresponded also to a drop in employment in some specific types of occupations, including accommodation and food services, retail trade, non-durable goods manufacturing, and health care and social assistance," said Giovanni Peri, a professor of economics and director of the UC Davis Global Migration Center. "The question is, 'Did Americans move into those sectors and into those states that experienced the biggest drop in immigrants?' And the answer is, 'no.'"

Aggregating data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the study, according to Peri, has the potential to change prejudiced views of immigration by providing data and facts.

Immigration can bolster the labor market but "changing the attitude toward immigration starts with changing our understanding and our knowledge of the facts," Peri said.

COVID-19 pandemic adds to immigration slowdown

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, immigration to the U.S. already faced a slowdown due to policies implemented by the Trump administration. But the pandemic halted international travel, leading to a drastic decline in the net growth of working-age (18–65 years old) foreign-born individuals.

Between May 2010 and May 2019, this population segment grew by an average of 660,000 individuals per year. Between May 2019 and June 2022, that population segment only grew by a total of 300,000, implying a working-age, foreign-born population gap of 1.65 million.

This decline in immigration affected different states in different ways.

"There are some states in which up to 30% to 35% of the population are immigrants, like in California, New York or Texas," Peri said. "And then there are some states where there are very few immigrants, like Wyoming and Alabama."

In four immigrant-heavy (more than 20% of represented employment) job sectors—including accommodation and food services, retail trade, non-durable goods manufacturing, and health care and social services—employment dropped at least 10% during 2020. The most affected job sector—accommodation and food services—experienced a 30% drop.

"This study isn't saying that the immigration drop was the only explanation for job openings," clarified Peri, noting that early retirement ushered in by the COVID-19 pandemic also contributed to the drop-off in employment. "But because there was already this decline in U.S. workers, immigrant loss was especially consequential."

Help wanted

With such a steep drop-off in immigration, Peri and his co-author, Reem Zaiour, a doctoral candidate in the Department of Economics, wondered if Americans would fill the increasing number of open jobs by moving to states that historically have high foreign-born populations.

It turns out that the effect on such mobility was negligible.

"Jobs were out there, but they were not filled," said Peri, noting that myriad reasons could account for this, including education level and age. "So, immigrants fill jobs that without them would be essentially unfilled."

While immigration and employment appear to be bouncing back to their pre-2020 trends, Peri said the study provides a window into how declining immigration can affect the overall U.S. labor market and highlights the need for immigrants.

"My research on the economics of immigration is deeply motivated by this idea that immigration is an extraordinary asset for the U.S.," Peri said. "The U.S. is an aging society; the population is slowing down; and innovation and changes come from new ideas and new people."

Peri presented the findings from this research in San Diego on Aug. 11 at the Institute for Humane Studies event "Downstream Effects of COVID-19 Restrictions on Immigration."

More information: Giovanni Peri et al, Changes in international immigration and internal native mobility after COVID-19 in the USA, Journal of Population Economics (2023). DOI: 10.1007/s00148-023-00972-y

Provided by UC Davis Why allowing more migrants into the US could boost the economy

Research shows criminal fines and fees disproportionately affect poor individuals and those in vulnerable groups

by University of Pennsylvania

Jean Galbraith, Professor of Law at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, and co-authors have published "Poverty Penalties as Human Rights Problems" in the American Journal of International Law. Their research focuses on financial sanctions imposed by criminal justice systems around the world. It uplifts "poverty penalties"—monetary sanctions and related consequences that disproportionately burden low-income people—as an urgent yet understudied international human rights issue.

Over the last decade, financial sanctions like fines and fees have received increased attention in the United States. The authors study these issues as a global phenomenon that disproportionately affects poor individuals and people in vulnerable groups. These pervasive practices often have devastating consequences for those living in poverty.

"In many countries, if you can't afford to pay your fine, then the consequence is that you go to jail," Galbraith said. "This is an incredibly harsh rule—and unless a fine is perfectly scaled to a person's finances, it means that low-income people are penalized far more in practice than are high-income people. But somehow this issue has flown under the radar of international human rights law."

The article demonstrates the global prevalence of poverty penalties, as well as variation in both their imposition and downstream consequences of nonpayment. As the authors show, countries vary in their ability to effectively scale financial penalties to financial circumstances. Countries also vary in how they respond to failure to pay fines, with some turning immediately to imprisonment and others using mechanisms like late fees, surcharges, forfeiture of property, or the loss of other rights or privileges.

The trend, however, is one in which countries deploy poverty penalties with cascading consequences that place disparate financial burdens on lower-income people. The authors show how poverty penalties also frequently cause disproportionate harm to populations that are already vulnerable for reasons of race, religion, gender, and disability.

"This paper highlights an important topic seldom explored from an international law perspective," co-author Latifa AlMarri said. "I aspire for our work to inspire further research and exploration."

A gap in international human rights law

Despite the prevalence of poverty penalties, the past century of international human rights law discourse has largely ignored the issue. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) has no specific references to excessive fines or the intersection of financial penalties and poverty.

This omission, the authors argue, reduced the likelihood that future national constitutions would also include such clauses, foreshadowed the absence of poverty penalties in future UN human rights instruments and agencies, and created a UN structure that contributes to the invisibility of poverty penalties and their impact.

"The disproportionately severe impact of criminal fines and fees on people without means raises human rights concerns," noted co-author Rheem Brooks. "Our research revealed that these harmful fining practices exist in many countries around the world, and this article presents an opportunity to not only uncover how poverty penalties can belie notions of justice but also how we can begin to redress this harm."

As the authors show, poverty penalties have received a modest increase in international attention in the last decade. The authors advocate for a more expansive approach as a matter of international human rights law, with important implications for global poverty reduction and criminal justice reform efforts.

To achieve this, the scholars articulate several human rights concerns that flow from poverty penalties, suggest practical efforts for international actors to raise the issue in various settings, and define potential best practices. The article also makes an urgent call for more data collection about on-the-ground practices and caution against pitfalls that advocates should consider when pursuing substantive reforms.

Collaborations supporting academic excellence

An example of the impact of scholarly collaborations between faculty and students, this research is a product of the "Global Legal Change" seminar taught by Galbraith in the 2022–2023 academic year.

"The students leapt in and took ownership of this project," said Galbraith. "They began with a deep dive into practices in countries around the world. Their preliminary research revealed that poverty penalties are widespread—and that while this issue has received attention in many domestic jurisdictions, it has gotten surprisingly little attention as a topic of international concern. They decided that we should turn this into a law review article—and so we did."

The authors chose to pursue publication to maximize the potential impact of their research, which includes making practical recommendations for international actors to address poverty penalties in a variety of human rights settings. The students split into three pairs, each responsible for drafting different segments of the paper, and engaged in a highly collaborative research and drafting process.

The authors note that the groundbreaking research "only begins to scratch the surface of understanding this problem, its full impact, and how countries or international bodies may start addressing it." The researchers hope their work "sparks further research on the issue through both anti-poverty and global human rights lenses."

More information: Jean Galbraith et al, Poverty Penalties as Human Rights Problems, American Journal of International Law (2023). DOI: 10.1017/ajil.2023.25

Provided by University of Pennsylvania Why it is more difficult to be poor in some states than others

New data reveal US space economy's output is shrinking—an economist explains in 3 charts

by Jay L. Zagorsky, The Conversation

The space industry has changed dramatically since the Apollo program put men on the

moon in the late 1960s

Today, over 50 years later, private companies are sending tourists to the edge of space and building lunar landers. NASA is bringing together 27 countries to peacefully explore the moon and beyond, and it is using the James Webb Space Telescope to peer back in time. Private companies are playing a much larger role in space than they ever have before, though NASA and other government interests continue to drive scientific advances.

I'm a macroeconomist who's interested in understanding how these space-related innovations and the growing role of private industry have affected the economy. Recently, the U.S. government started tracking the space economy's size. These data can tell us the size of the space-related industry, whether its outputs come mainly from government or private enterprise, and how they have been growing relative to the economy at large.

Companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic made up over 80% of the U.S. space economy in 2021. The government held a 19% share of space spending, up from 16% in 2012—mostly thanks to an increase in military spending.

Ways to measure the space economy

On July 14, 2023, India launched a rocket as part of its Chandrayaan-3 mission to put a lander and rover on the south pole of the moon.

There are many ways to measure economic success in space.

One way is the economic impact. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which tracks the nation's gross domestic product and other indicators, recently began to monitor the space economy and published figures from 2012 to 2021. The Bureau of Economic Analysis calculated the impact of space using both broad and narrow definitions.

The broad definition comprises four parts: things used in space, like rocket ships; items supporting space travel, like launch pads; things getting direct input from space, like cell phone GPS chips; and space education, like planetariums and college astrophysics departments.

In 2021, the broad definition showed that total space-related sales, or what the government calls gross output, was over US$210 billion, before adjusting for inflation. That number represents about 0.5% of the whole U.S. economy's total gross output.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis also has a narrow definition that excludes satellite television, satellite radio and space education. The difference in definitions is important because back in 2012 these three categories represented one-quarter of all space spending. However, by 2021, they only represented one-eighth of spending because many people had switched from watching satellite TV to streaming movies and shows over the internet

Space's share of the economy

A closer look at the data shows that space's share of the U.S. economy is shrinking.

Using the broad definition and adjusting for inflation, the relative size of the space economy fell by about one-fifth from 2012 to 2021. This is because sales of space-related items—everything from rockets to satellite TV—have barely changed since 2015.

Using the narrow definition also shows the space economy is getting relatively smaller. From 2012 to 2021, the space sector's inflation-adjusted gross output grew on average 3% a year, compared with 5% for the overall economy. This suggests space is not growing as fast as other economic sectors.

Space jobs

The number of jobs created by the space economy has also declined. In 2021, 360,000 people worked full- or part-time space-related jobs in the private sector, down from 372,000 about a decade earlier, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis could not track all space-related government jobs since spy agencies and parts of the military don't provide much information. Nevertheless, it has tracked some since 2018. The military's Space Force, which is the smallest branch, adds about 9,000 workers. NASA has about 18,000 employees, which is half of its 1960s peak.

Combining these government workers plus all private workers results in just under 400,000 people. To give some perspective, Amazon's U.S. workforce is over twice as big and Walmart's is four times bigger than reported U.S. space-related employment.

Growing competition in space

The U.S. has long dominated the space economy, especially in terms of government spending.

The U.S. government spent a little more than $40 billion in 2017, compared with about $3.5 billion spent by Japan and less than $2 billion by Russia.

Moreover, most of the top private space companies are based in the U.S., led by Boeing, SpaceX and Raytheon, which gives the U.S. a leg up in continuing to play a leading role with the rockets, satellites and other stuff needed to operate in space.

The U.S. also published more than twice the amount of space research in 2017 as its next nearest rival—China.

But China is catching up and has narrowed the gap in recent years as top Chinese officials decided success in space is a national priority. Their goal is reportedly to surpass the U.S. as the dominant space power by 2045. China recently put a large space station called the Tiangong into orbit and aims to put people on the moon.

China's not the only one joining the 21st century space race. India is expanding its space economy rapidly, with 140 space-tech startups. India launched a rocket on July 14, 2023, designed to put a lander and rover on the moon. And the European Space Agency's Euclid spacecraft plans to map parts of the universe to study dark matter. The ESA released the craft's first test images at the end of July 2023.

The U.S. has a strong foothold in space. But whether it can maintain its lead—as the space race moves into a new frontier of space mining and missions to Mars—remains to be seen.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Kenya to launch first operational satellite next week

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