Friday, August 25, 2023

‘No more water’: Iraq drought claims lakeside resort


By AFP

Declining rainfall and rising temperatures have hit Lake Habbaniyah and the rest of Iraq - Copyright AFP Yuki IWAMURA
Laure Al Khoury

Iraqi merchant Mohamed has never seen such a grim tourist season: years of drought have shrunken the majestic Lake Habbaniyah, keeping away the holidaymakers who once flocked there during summer.

“The last two years, there was some activity, but now there’s no more water,” said 35-year-old Mohamed, asking to be identified by his first name only.

He laid out inflatable water floats, nets and shirts in front of his lakeside shop, but expected few if any customers.

“This year, it’s dry, dry!” Mohamed told AFP, his shirt soaked in sweat in the inhospitable heat of nearly 50 degrees Celsius (120 Fahrenheit).

Shorelines at Habbaniyah, about 70 kilometres (45 miles) west of the capital Baghdad, have receded by several dozen metres after four consecutive years of drought ravaged parts of the country.

The United Nations ranks water-stressed Iraq as one of five countries most impacted by some effects of climate change.

When full, as it last was in 2020, the lake can hold up to 3.3 billion cubic metres (117 trillion cubic feet) of water, said Jamal Odeh Samir, director of water resources in Anbar province, where Habbaniyah is located.

But now “the lake contains no more than 500 million cubic metres of water”, he told AFP.

Shops like Mohamed’s and holiday homes by the lake now sit empty in the height of summer. On the beach, stray dogs wander between unused umbrellas.

To get to the water, visitors must walk through foul-smelling mud that was once submerged under the lake surface.

– ‘Only place to relax’ –

The resort was created around the artificial lake in 1979, becoming a popular destination for tourists from across the Middle East in the following years.

Declining rainfall over the past four years and rising temperatures have hit Habbaniyah — alongside much of the rest of the country — hard.

Baghdad blames upstream dam construction by Turkey on a staggering low water level in the Euphrates river, which feeds the lake and also runs through Syria.

“The strategic water reserves in Iraq are at their lowest point” in nearly a century, Khaled Shamal, spokesman for the water resources ministry, has warned.

Last week during a visit to Baghdad, United Nations human rights chief Volker Turk warned that “rising temperatures plus the drought, and the fact that the loss of diversity is a reality, is a wake-up call for Iraq and for the world”.

Sada’a Saleh Mohamed, a local official overseeing finances at the Habbaniyah resort, said “the lake has receded” and tourism has become “really very weak”.

“The lake has become a pond of stagnant water, unsuitable for consumption or for swimming,” he said.

When evening fell and temperatures dropped slightly, a few people finally arrived to barbecue on the beach.

Qassem Lafta came with his family from the nearby city of Fallujah.

“Before, we would come here and it was much better, the water was higher,” said the 45-year-old merchant.

He said he hoped authorities would revive the lake.

“It’s the only place where people from Anbar, southern Iraq and Baghdad can come to relax.”

‘Animals are thirsty’: Dust and bones on Turkey’s shrinking lake


By AFP
August 25, 2023
Carcasses of dead gulls like the shoreline of Turkey's shrinking Lake Van 
- Copyright AFP ILYAS AKENGIN

Fulya OZERKAN

Shepherd Ibrahim Koc recalls his youth with fondness as he grazes cattle on a barren field that was once lush with vegetation on the edge of Turkey’s largest lake.

An occasional shrub marks the spots from where Lake Van has retreated over years of global heating and drought.

“The animals are thirsty,” the 65-year-old lamented.

“There is no water,” Koc said, echoing sentiments expressed by a growing number of Turks who have watched their mountains lose ice caps and their water reservoirs dry up.

A weather map of Turkey — an agricultural superpower stretching from Bulgaria in the west to Iran in the east — shows much of the country suffering from a prolonged drought.

Shrinking shorelines are exposing lakebeds that pollute the air with a salty dust. Scientists fear the problems could grow only worse.

“I think these are our good days,” Faruk Alaeddinoglu, a professor at Van Yuzuncu Yil University, told AFP.

“We will witness the lake continuing to shrink in the coming years.”

Lake Van covers approximately 3,700 square kilometres (1,400 square miles), reaching a maximum depth of 450 metres (1,475 feet).

Its surface area has shrunk by around 1.5 percent in recent years, according to measurements Alaeddinoglu carried out last autumn.

“That is a terribly large amount of water for a 3,700 square kilometre area,” he said.

– ‘Barren land’-


In the Celebibagi neighbourhood on the lake’s northern shore, the waters have receded by around four kilometres.

A long walk along the exposed lakebed is littered with bird bones, craggy bushes and dried dirt covered with sodium and other minerals.

“We are walking in an area which was once covered with the lake’s waters,” said Ali Kalcik, a local environmentalist.

“Now, it’s a barren land without a living thing.”

The sight of dazzling flamingos dancing in the air against the backdrop of mountains signals the spot where the lake finally begins.

Alaeddinoglu said the lake’s size had changed in the past because of rifts in tectonic plates that make Turkey into one of the most active earthquake zones in the world.

But he blamed the ongoing water loss on rising temperatures that result in “less precipitation and excessive evaporation”.

Almost three times as much of the lake’s water evaporates than comes back down in the form of rain, Alaeddinoglu said.

Lush gardens of newly-built summer cottages are also draining water from the region, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has built a government retreat.

– ‘Business is dying’ –


The problem has become so severe that officials are urging local farmers not to grow crops requiring too much water.

This means farmer Kinyas Gezer can no longer afford to grow sugar beets, which are a particularly thirsty vegetable.

“All my labour has been wasted,” the 56-year-old lamented, pointing to his shrivelled apricots.

“If it goes on like this, we will abandon farming. The business is dying.”

The water’s loss also exposes pollution, according to Orhan Deniz, a professor of Yuzuncu Yil University, whose campus sits on the lake’s shore.

“Large patches of slime mixed with mud give off a bad smell and make human pollution more evident,” he said.

“In the 1990s, we would swim during lunch break and then go back to university,” he said, gazing at the lake from his office.

“Now it’s not possible to step in the water, let alone swim in it,” he said.

– ‘A bird massacre’ –


The lake is still popular with tourists and some locals swim along its more scenic parts.

Van Governor Ozan Balci said his office has spent 80 million lira ($3 million) cleaning up the lake.

“We are doing our best to protect the lake because of its cultural heritage and people’s common memory,” he told AFP.

In the shoreline village of Adir, some locals swam and others picnicked under a tree.

But dead gulls lying not too far from the vacationers betrayed the ecological problems facing the lake.

Experts say pearl mullets that form the basis of the gulls’ diet migrated early this year because of the drought.

Deprived of food, the gulls simply starved to death.

“The remaining birds here have one more week. Then they will also die,” local villager Necmettin Nebioglu, 64, said.

“In the past, the seagulls would follow us while we were swimming. Now look, it’s a bird massacre,” he said, pointing to a pile of carcasses on the shore.


In search for Hawaii fires cause, lawyers probe power lines

ByMark Chediak and Jef Feeley
August 14, 2023 — 

San Francisco: While the cause of the deadly Maui fires remains under investigation, lawyers are sending experts to the island to look into utility power lines as being a possible source of ignition.

Attorneys with Watts Guerra, Singleton Schreiber, and Frantz Law Group said they have been collecting evidence, interviewing witnesses and reviewing reports that indicate that damaged power infrastructure owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries created the spark for the flames.



What appear to be power lines down at the scene at one of Maui’s tourist hubs which was reduced to wreckage by the fires.CREDIT:AP

“All evidence – videos, witness accounts, burn progression, and utility equipment remaining – points to Hawaiian Electric’s equipment being the ignition source of the fire that devastated Lahaina,” said Mikal Watts, a Puerto Rico-based plaintiffs lawyer at Watts Guerra who has won millions of dollars in settlements in other wildfire cases, including against California utility giant PG&E Corp.

Hawaiian Electric said it doesn’t have information on what caused the fires, according to an email statement from spokesman Darren Pai. “Access to the impacted area is also limited for safety and emergency response concerns,” Pai said. “After the immediate emergency has passed, we will work with the County and others to investigate what happened on Maui.”

Officials haven’t said what sparked the blazes that were fanned by hurricane-force winds and levelled the historic town of Lahaina. The investigation into what Hawaii Governor Josh Green described as the state’s largest-ever natural disaster could take weeks or months to produce an official determination of the cause.



Burnt areas in Lahaina on the Maui island, Hawaii.CREDIT:AP

Emergency workers on Saturday continued to dig through the ash and rubble, with the official death count from the fires rising to 93.

Hawaiian Electric, which operates the Maui Electric utility, has come under criticism for not turning off power despite warnings of critical fire conditions due to predicted dry, gale-force winds.

The utility earlier this week said strong winds downed electric power lines and snapped power poles ahead of the blazes.

That said, many things can spark a fire in the right conditions, including backfiring cars and trucks dragging chains along a road.


A burnt coconut tree in Lahaina, Hawaii.CREDIT:AP

Sensors that monitor power flow into households detected a major grid fault just after 11.38pm local time on August 7, about 20 minutes before a fire was first reported in Maui, followed by dozens of faults overnight, said Bob Marshall, chief executive officer of Whisker Labs.

The company’s plug-in household devices determine whether a fault is taking place on utility equipment through the magnitude of voltage swings. In Maui, the strongest readings came around Lahaina.

While Marshall cautioned that it’s not clear whether the faults were the ignition sources, he said that fires need a spark and there is “clear data showing dozens of major grid faults in the area of the fires and around the start times of the fires”.

There was no reported lightning at the time and it’s unlikely people were camping with high winds and a red flag warning, he added.

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Maui fires
Warning sirens did not sound on Maui, Hawaii official confirms

Michael Wara, a wildfire expert who is director of the Climate and Energy Policy Program at Stanford University, said there is “no question” that the utility should have cut power to reduce wildfire risk with the forecast of gusty winds.

The controversial practice is now used by utilities in California, Nevada and Oregon after power lines sparked catastrophic fires during dry windstorms in California.

“We had a situation here with very high winds, very high heat,” said James Frantz, whose firm, Frantz Law Group, is looking at power lines as a culprit and has been signing up residents and businesses in Maui who lost their homes.

“And all those factors call for de-energising those lines when that event occurs. They did not do that and they had the power to do it.”

Frantz Law Group has an office in Honolulu and is working with a local law firm on the investigation.

Hawaii Electric doesn’t have a formal power shutoff program for fire risk, Pai said.



The death toll from the wildfires in Hawaii has risen to 80, making it one of the deadliest blazes in recent US history.

“Preemptive, short-notice power shutoffs have to be coordinated with first responders and in Lahaina, electricity powers the pumps that provide the water needed for firefighting,” Pai said. The utility has a “robust wildfire mitigation and grid resiliency program that includes vegetation management, grid hardening investments and regular inspection of our assets,” he added.

The blaze that razed Lahaina damaged or destroyed 2207 structures, the majority of them residential, with an estimated capital cost of approximately $US5.5 billion ($8.5 billion), according to a damage assessment released Saturday by the Pacific Disaster Centre and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Plaintiff lawyers often dispatch representatives of their offices to sign up clients in the wake of wildfire disasters. The plaintiff law firms now working in Maui represented fire victims in a $US13.5 billion settlement with PG&E, which was driven into bankruptcy in 2019 after its utility equipment sparked some of the deadliest wildfires in California history.

Attorney Gerald Singleton said his group, Singleton Schreiber, was flying investigators to Maui this weekend to look into witness accounts of falling power lines and then fires starting, although an actual cause has yet to be determined.

“This wasn’t something they couldn’t have predicted,” Singleton said of the high winds taking down lines. “It’s hard to understand why more precautions weren’t taken.”

If there is a link to power lines, Hawaiian Electric will have to be shown to be negligent or that it could have reasonably prevented a loss, a higher legal standard than the one applied to utilities in California, according to a note Friday by Guggenheim Securities.

Bloomberg
Biodiversity ‘calculator’ aims for better outcomes for nature in areas slated for development

Infrastructure Consulting firm Aecom recently tested the metric on the former location of the Keppel Club golf course. 

SINGAPORE – Hoping to see better outcomes for nature before they are affected by building and development projects, a biodiversity specialist had a vision to put a value on all of Singapore’s habitats and land spaces.

Over 1½ years, Mr Ashley Welch and his colleagues from infrastructure consulting firm Aecom, and partners from biodiversity consultancy Camphora, built the Singapore Biodiversity Accounting Metric – a free online calculator that estimates the amount of biodiversity that may be lost from planned building projects.

The tool can be downloaded from this website.

Mr Welch, a biodiversity consultant, is hoping that putting tangible numerical values on habitats and green spaces will spur developers to avoid encroaching on high-value habitats to minimise biodiversity loss.

To calculate the value of a forest or freshwater pond at a development site, the spreadsheet-based tool considers different parameters, including the type and size of the habitat, the condition it is in, its ecological importance and whether it can be replaced. The ecological importance parameter, also known as distinctiveness, is given a score from zero to eight, with eight indicating that the habitat carries very high ecological importance.

For rare habitats or secondary forests dominated by native species, the metric may advise users to avoid touching them at all costs.

A secondary forest will have a higher value than an abandoned carpark with planter boxes, for instance. The value of each land area is represented as numerical biodiversity units. Biodiversity gains and losses in post-development scenarios are shown as percentages.

This tool could spur developers or agencies to build on brownfield sites, or previously developed land, instead of on undeveloped land, said Mr Welch.

But due to limited land space in Singapore, the clearing of more forested land and vegetation is inevitable, he acknowledged. To limit biodiversity loss in these cases, proposed developments should prioritise nature by redesigning the infrastructure to reduce its toll on the environment, enhancing or restoring degraded habitats and introducing urban greenery, he added.

“The metric incentivises you to try and put back as much (nature) as you can to get a better score. There will be projects here that will have a 10 per cent net loss in biodiversity... and it’s better than a 50 per cent net loss,” said Mr Welch.

“Biodiversity accounting assessments encourage us to break down the complexity of nature and allow us to make better decisions that the average person would have otherwise been unaware of.”

The tool is designed to be used at a project’s master planning stage or alongside environmental impact assessments and field surveys. The metric can currently calculate the values of terrestrial, freshwater and intertidal habitats.

Environment consultancy DHI Group, for instance, has a biodiversity metric for the marine environment called EBM BioQ.

The metric can currently calculate the values of terrestrial, freshwater and intertidal habitats. PHOTO: SINGAPORE BIODIVERSITY ACCOUNTING METRIC


A key reason that drove Mr Welch to build the metric was to reduce the subjectivity with environmental impact assessments and their following mitigation measures.

Dr Anuj Jain, founding director of bioSEA, a company that specialises in ecological design, agreed that a site’s value can be interpreted differently by consultants.

“The tool presents a standard set of values that can be collectively debated and agreed upon by the conservation and ecology community,” he said.

“In the past, projects have also got around to clearing ecologically valuable forested areas and replacing them with streetscapes and park connectors. In cases where the impact of development is huge, the tool may be able to help save valuable ecological habitats from being developed.”

Aecom and Camphora have been using the tool on some master planning work and environmental impact assessments, but they are unable to disclose the ongoing projects.

Aecom recently tested the metric on a 48ha site in the Greater Southern Waterfront, which will be redeveloped to house around 9,000 public and private housing units. In 2022, the authorities said the first Build-To-Order project would be launched for sale within three years.

The company previously conducted an environmental impact study on the site and its connecting green spaces, and later used the tool to check if its proposed mitigation measures were optimal.

The site, which is the former location of the Keppel Club golf course, has three high-value habitats bordering it, said Mr Welch. They are Berlayer Creek, which is one of two remaining mangrove patches in southern Singapore, the Bukit Chermin secondary forest dominated by native trees, and a marine area with seagrass meadows and rocky shores.

The first decision made was to leave those high-value habitats untouched.

As for the 48ha golf course, it was a nesting and foraging ground for birds and acted as an ecological bridge between the Southern Ridges and Labrador Nature Reserve.

To help preserve the site’s connectivity for wildlife, the authorities have announced that green corridors will be formed alongside the housing blocks, with one running through the future estate, and another next to Berlayer Creek to buffer the vulnerable habitat from urban light and noise.

A page in the Singapore Biodiversity Accounting Metric which shows users how to use the tool. PHOTO: SINGAPORE BIODIVERSITY ACCOUNTING METRIC

The tool calculated a 10 per cent net gain in biodiversity with those proposed changes – a rare instance where development seems to give nature a boost.

“The project prioritised development on a habitat suboptimal for biodiversity, a golf course. The green corridors – comprising a secondary forest and some urban streetscapes – will connect with the existing forest and mangroves,” said Mr Welch.

The tool is loosely based on a British biodiversity metric created by conservation agency Natural England.

In Britain, such metrics are part of policy. From November, new housing and commercial projects there must ensure that their developments leave habitats in a better state than before, with at least a 10 per cent gain in biodiversity. This can be done by restoring a habitat off-site, but as a last resort.

Mr Welch and his team are looking to improve the metric – which was built with the help of a grant from the Economic Development Board – with feedback from other consultants and the nature community. They aim to eventually create a similar tool for the whole of South-east Asia.

Assistant Professor Lim Jun Ying from the National University of Singapore’s Department of Biological Sciences noted that any methods or metrics relying on biodiversity values should be regarded as a convenient “shorthand” based on available data.

“In reality, species with different attributes will respond to land-use changes in different ways, and over different timeframes... It is important to remember that there are many aspects of biodiversity and ecosystems that are hard to capture quantitatively,” he said.
At mass grave exhumation, daughter of Spanish Civil War victim seeks closure

A total of 108 civilians, many associated with Leftist parties and unions, were executed and buried at the Colmenar Viejo cemetery between April and December of 1939

Reuters Colmenar Viejo Published 14.08.23, 

Representational imageTwitter/ @SniffOutStocks

Benita Navacerrada is a 91-year-old Spanish woman with a yearning to know where her father was buried more than 80 years ago.

She hopes the answer will lie in an exhumation outside Madrid of the remains of more than 100 people who were executed by forces of late dictator Francisco Franco in 1939, in the aftermath of Spain’s Civil War.

“I want to know where he is because I have never known,” Navacerrada told Reuters this week at the cemetery of Colmenar Viejo where two mass graves have been found.

Navacerrada said locating her father, who was a union leader and died when she was seven, would bring joy and closure: “I could say he is resting in peace and not thrown out there like pigs”.

Forensic scientists were analysing this weekend the second mass grave, located in a pathway at the cemetery, collecting skulls with signs of bullet holes and bones to genetically identify them and later hand them to their family members.

A total of 108 civilians, many associated with Leftist parties and unions, were executed and buried at the Colmenar Viejo cemetery between April and December of 1939.

The exhumation of the first mass grave started last year with the financial support of Spain’s Leftist government and led to finding of the remains of 12 people.

Spain transitioned to democracy following Franco’s death in 1975 but the legacy of his four-decade fascist dictatorship still divides Spanish society. The issue of exhumations was a hot topic in the run-up to a national election in July in which both a Right-wing and Left-wing bloc failed to win a majority.
Arrest of Saudi scholar and influencer another sign of social media crackdown

Detention of public health expert Mohammed Alhajji surprised many observers as he was seen as apolitical



Stephanie Kirchgaessner
THE GUARDIAN 
@skirchy
Sun 13 Aug 2023 


A prominent Saudi scholar and Snapchat influencer has been arrested by Saudi authorities in what experts said was evidence of the kingdom’s extreme crackdown on social media users.

The arrest of Mohammed Alhajji, a public health expert who completed his dissertation in the US, follows the disappearance and recent arrests of other prominent influencers for “crimes” that include the perceived criticism of the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and support for women’s rights.

Alhajji’s arrest was confirmed by two sources with close knowledge of the matter.

There was no indication of why the influencer – who was seen as apolitical and supportive of the Saudi government – was detained.


Alhajji had been scheduled to speak at an event in Riyadh on Sunday, but observers noted that a tweet describing the event had been deleted in recent days.


Saudis accused of using Snapchat to promote crown prince and silence critics

It followed the recent news of the arrest of Manahel al-Otaibi, a 29-year-old certified fitness instructor and artist who frequently promoted female empowerment on her social media accounts. Among other charges, Otaibi was accused by Saudi authorities of using a hashtag – which can be translated as #societyisready – to call for an end to male guardianship rules. Another Snapchat influencer, Mansour Al-Raqiba, who had more than 2 million followers, was sentenced to 27 years in jail for allegedly privately criticising the crown prince.

In one of his last Washington Post columns before his brutal murder in 2018, Jamal Khashoggi, the Saudi journalist, criticised waves of arrests by the crown prince’s government and the “public shaming of intellectuals and religious leaders who dare to express opinions contrary to those of my country’s leadership”.

Yahya Ibrahim Assiri, a UK-based Saudi dissident and founder of human rights group ALQST, said Saudi Arabia was no longer seeing “mass arrests” as described by Khashoggi five years ago.

“The prisons are full and the society is completely threatened. No one criticises the violations or the corruption,” Assiri said. “However, the authorities are still looking for more victims and still targeting anyone they feel could express their opinion at any time. Alhajji is not criticising the authorities – he is trying to be on the safe side – but he has been arrested unfairly, like a lot of people.”

Alhajji has a verified Snapchat account and 385,000 followers on Twitter. In interviews highlighting his academic success in the US, where he attended graduate and undergraduate university, Alhajji was described as a social media personality who wanted to use his platform to explain public health issues to a Saudi audience.


“It’s like a reality TV show, a lens for people 7,000 miles away to observe my PhD life in the US, my life in Philly,” he was quoted as telling a Temple University news outlet.

Describing his then recent move back to Saudi Arabia, he noted that he had built enough of a following to get recognised. “They call me Dr Mohammed,” he said. Alhajji graduated from Temple with a PhD in 2020. His research on the spread of sickle cell disease, a common genetic disease in Saudi Arabia, earned him an award from the American Public Health Association Genomics Forum and the Society of Behavioral Medicine.

Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of Dawn, a human rights group founded by Khashoggi, said Saudi Arabia was notably now arresting prominent voices that had “nothing to do with politics” because any independent voice was seen as a threat in the mind of “MBS”, as the crown prince is known. The disappearance of people like Alhajji, for no known reason, was one of the “terror” tactics used by the crown prince, she said.

“MBS also knows he’s free to do whatever he wants in the country because he is secure in his impunity, with the likes of Biden, Macron and Sunak falling over themselves to woo him for weapons purchases and happy to look the other way about anything else,” she said.

Alhajji was described by those who have followed his work as member of Saudi Arabia’s elite, who had formerly represented the Misk Foundation, a government organisation meant to encourage Saudi youth, which was founded by Mohammed bin Salman. He also appeared before a UN body in 2019 representing Saudi Arabia.

Omar Abdulaziz, a Canada-based Saudi dissident who was a close confidant of Khashoggi’s, said it was “shocking news” given that Alhajji was largely seen as a supporter of the current government.

Social media companies have declined to comment on the disappearances and arrests of their most prominent users in the kingdom, including the decades-long sentences against two women – Noura al-Qahtani and Salma al-Shehab – for tweets and likes on Twitter that were deemed offensive.

Snapchat CEO and founder Evan Spiegel was in Saudi Arabia in December 2022. The company, which has more than 20 million users in the kingdom, including an estimated 90% of 13-to-34-year-olds, declined to comment on Alhajji’s arrest.

The Saudi embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
MONGOLIA’S RARE EARTHS DIPLOMACY AND ITS GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS



By Marina Zhang

Note: This article appeared in The Diplomat on August 12 2023.

Mongolia, rich in minerals especially copper and rare earths, but sandwiched between China and Russia, is making a pivotal shift toward a ‘third neighbour’ – the United States. During a recent visit to Washington, Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai aimed to fortify US ties concerning critical minerals and particularly to enhance cooperation in rare earth mining. Additionally, Mongolia and the US brokered an ‘Open Skies’ aviation agreement, intended to bolster direct trade.

Should these agreements be realised and rare earths air-shipped from Mongolia to the United States, what are the implications for China-US strategic competition?

‘Chokepoint’ strategy

The China-US relationship has been the world’s most pivotal bilateral dynamic since the end of the Cold War. Recently, competition has taken precedence over cooperation between these two superpowers, with Beijing and Washington jockeying for advantage from trade and technology to control over critical mineral supply chains.

Global supply chains have evolved due to two intertwined factors: advancements in ICT and cross-border logistics, along with the reduction in institutional barriers facilitated by organisations like the WTO. As a result, supply chain management has become crucial for optimising efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and uninterrupted capital and information flows for both businesses and national economies.

However, supply chains present a paradox: As they grow more complex, weaving in multilayered arrays of suppliers each chosen for their competitive advantages, they also become more vulnerable to external shocks. This includes natural disasters, pandemics, and unpredictable geopolitical shifts. Recent events like the China-US tech war and the economic sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine highlight the fragility of today’s global supply chains.

In the context of a volatile geopolitical environment, certain chokepoints within supply chains are regarded as potential vulnerabilities. A ‘chokepoint‘ denotes a critical and irreplaceable component or link within a supply chain, susceptible to control by potentially adversarial entities. At its core, a chokepoint is characterised by a form of monopoly. While businesses may wield monopolies to achieve heightened economic gains, nations often cultivate them for political objectives. Beyond the establishment of monopolies to create strategic chokepoints, an alternative and more aggressive strategy also exists: targeting an opponent’s chokepoint to intentionally disrupt their crucial supply.

In the competition between the United States and China, both nations are employing chokepoint strategies. To start, the US utilised its dominant position within semiconductor supply chains to exert extensive technological and geopolitical influence. This manoeuvre effectively curbs China’s progress in advanced chipmaking. China, in response, has implemented its own countermeasures, including export controls of critical metals. These reciprocal actions have transcended the realm of economic sanctions, signifying a broader form of economic warfare between the two powers.

In the midst of these various measures and countermeasures, China holds a wild card: its control over the separation and refinement of rare earths. Presently, China is the sole provider of a continuous, uninterrupted supply of high-energy permanent magnets suitable for high-temperature applications such as electric motors used in EVs.

The geopolitics of rare earths

Rare earths play a crucial role in numerous modern technologies. Specifically, the rapid growth of renewable energy and related technologies, such as electric vehicles, wind and solar energy, spurred a 37 percent increase in rare earths demand in 2022, a trend expected to continue for at least the next five years. Yet, the supply chains for rare earths are mired in geopolitical vulnerability. Notably, China boasts the most substantial natural reserves of all 17 rare earth elements and has cultivated a unique ability to refine and separate each one.

Moreover, since 2012, China has intensified its efforts to move up the value chain. Notably, it has consolidated rare earth mining and processing under state-owned enterprises and established pivotal research centers. Despite commencing patent filings nearly two decades after the United States and Japan, China held more than 80 percent of all rare earth-related patents by 2020.

China is now the largest importer and exporter of rare earths, meaning it controls the bulk of rare earth processing including refinement, separation, and fabricating magnet materials. During the first half of 2023, China imported 90,920 tons of rare earth ores and metals, a substantial portion from the United States, and exported 26,236 tons of refined rare earths, primarily magnet materials. While theoretically feasible, decoupling from China’s rare earth supply chains would involve substantial costs and potentially disruptive supply chain stability.

Beyond just rare earths, China is the leading and most cost-effective supplier of many critical minerals vital for clean energy transition. Given the geopolitical and environmental risks tied to mining and processing minerals, concerns about rare earth supply security have intensified. Recognising their potential vulnerability to Chinese restrictions, Western governments are actively seeking to level the playing field. This includes seeking to diversify mining sources and building facilities independent of China’s input.

In the face of geopolitical competition between the US-led West and China, more nations, including Mongolia, are gravitating toward the democratic bloc to mitigate risks from China’s dominance in critical supply chains. Reacting to a series of export controls and technology sanctions on semiconductors imposed against it, China has felt compelled to employ reciprocal actions.

For example, Beijing, with precision and deliberation, initially curtailed exports of gallium and germanium – two rare metals integral to the manufacturing of several strategically significant products, including military weapons systems. This move came in the wake of China’s new Foreign Relations Law enacted on July 1, which asserts that the nation may employ countermeasures when facing external restrictions. Moreover, the recent introduction of China’s drone export control policy indicates a potential escalation in these tit-for-tat measures.

In light of China’s countermeasures, the Pentagon is investigating partnerships with US and Canadian companies to recycle rare metals from waste and refine both gallium and germanium. Furthermore, the United States has declared limitations on American investments in China’s tech sector.

Given this backdrop, the Mongolian prime minister’s visit to Washington to discuss potential rare earth collaborations can be seen as bolstering the United States’ position, potentially tipping the balance of power in this geopolitical tug-of-war.

Can Mongolia’s rare earths diplomacy shift the power balance?

The potential rare earth partnership between the United States and Mongolia holds promise for mutual gains. For the US, the collaboration could serve to diversify its sources of rare earths. Meanwhile, Mongolia stands to benefit from expanded diplomatic ties and potential US investments that could fuel its economic growth. However, as with any international relationship, the devil is in the details.

Several significant barriers cast shadows over the potential partnership. First, the economic viability of mining rare earths, which come in oxide concentrations ranging from 1 percent to 70 percent, is far from guaranteed. Uncertainties persist regarding the quality of Mongolia’s rare earth reserves and the requisite investment for extraction and processing.

Second, Mongolia may face domestic opposition to rare earths mining operations, which come with a heavy environmental cost. Across its entire value chain, this process consumes substantial energy and water resources while generating various wastes and pollutants, including toxic mining residues, wastewater laden with heavy metals, radioactive waste, and air pollutants such as carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide. China learned this lesson the hard way: Reports indicate that it could take anywhere from 50 to 100 years for the environment to fully recover in a county in Jiangxi Province where heavy rare earth deposits are rich. The estimated price tag for this restoration is approximately 38 billion yuan, equivalent to around $5.5 billion.

Third, the absence of critical infrastructure in Mongolia, including adequate roads for transporting heavy machinery and reliable electricity, compounds the challenges. Ironically, Mongolia’s best hope for addressing this situation is China. The two countries have agreed to cooperate on a variety of infrastructure projects, including cross-border railways, trade ports, and roads and highways.

Lastly, Mongolia’s landlocked status leaves it reliant on road transport to reach the nearest Chinese ports for global trade. While the ‘Open Skies’ aviation agreement offers an alternative, the cost of air shipping minerals can easily negate any economic benefits. Additionally, the agreement’s implementation depends on the consent of either China or Russia, as their airspace must be crossed for flights to proceed.

Therefore, though bolstered ties between the United States and Mongolia could be disadvantageous for China geopolitically, Mongolia’s pivot seems more symbolic than rooted in economic pragmatism. The potential drawback of this shift is that it could jeopardise the existing cooperation between China and Mongolia. China remains the most significant destination for Mongolia’s mineral exports, including copper and coal. Should Mongolia decisively tilt toward the West, Mongolia’s exports could face constraints.

Conclusion

As China-US tensions escalate, other countries often feel pressured to align with one of these superpowers. Smaller countries have less weight in shifting the China-US dynamic than larger ones, and nevertheless their decisions reflect shared geopolitical anxieties. As pointed out by Oyun-Erdene, countries like his own could suffer greatly if superpower competition boiled over.

In the race against time to combat climate change, global unity rather than fragmentation is the need of the hour.

Dr Marina Zhang is Associate Professor – Research at the Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney.

Niger Shakes Off Neo-Colonialism – Analysis

By 

By Manjeet Kripalani and Neelam Deo 


The July 26 coup in the West African nation of Niger, a former French colony, has succeeded in the impossible: pushing Ukraine off the lips of Western leaders and off the front pages of the Western global press. Coup leader Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani, 63, declared the French military defence agreements at an end, and asked French companies, mining uranium in Niger, to leave the country and the resources for the Nigeriens to manage for themselves. It has provoked much handwringing about the fate of democracy in Niger. That the French and U.S. troops stationed there have been leading the regional anti-jihadist fight and expelling them will be a set back with dangerous consequences. That Niger will fall into further chaos because African countries have not built the institutions necessary to govern themselves.

This may well be the case. But the coup has revealed three truths: the long tail of colonialism is reaching its end; alternatives to the western control and command have emerged; the younger generation in developing countries have neither awe nor loyalty to the old master and nothing to lose in overthrowing the past, even though they know not their future.

The events in Niger reflect this with surprising sharpness.

Niger was a French colony from 1900 to 1960. Over 70 years later, in 2023, the Nigerien economy is still dependent on its former colonial power. Tchiani’s central demand is to end its political, economic, and military dependence on France, with which it has numerous military defence agreements, whose companies mine and take away 80% of Niger’s uranium, and whose currency, the West African CFA, is controlled by the Banque de France. The cynicism of the latter, even as France itself uses the Euro, is not lost on the Nigeriens. Niger’s elected former president, Mohamed Bazoum, was supported by Paris, and continued the status quo.

This model of control is replicated many former French colonies in West Africa – Niger, Mali, Cote D’Ivore, Burkia Faso, Guinea, Gabon, Senegal. For some of their leaders, Paris is still the Mecca, rather than their own capitals. These West African leaders, elected or otherwise, have built themselves in the image of their colonisers, and received French support in return. The convenience of having French Franc-controlled economies means that the wealth acquired during leadership positions can be transferred to France, Belgium or Canada.


This is enabled due to lack of air connectivity within Africa but continuing colonial linkages to the former mother country. Locals would often joke that to visit a neighbouring country, their rulers went through Paris – where they could check on their bank accounts and indulge in some fine dining.

Many of these countries are in ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), which is allied to France and the U.S and which has immediately threatened military action to its own member country, rather than call for diplomacy. This is exactly the position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as well, where the West argues against diplomacy or a ceasefire.  Former President Bazoum, under house arrest, even wrote an Op-Ed in the Washington Post, seeking the return to ‘democracy’ in Niger.

This has had no effect on Tchiani or the Nigeriens. In fact, they showed greater enthusiasm for the ouster of the French, and even if ordinary people didn’t support Tchiani before, they do now. A recent telephone poll by Premise Data shows that 78% of educated Nigerien men[1] support the coup and prefer the involvement of the Russians over the French and Americans. Clearly, the U.S.-Russia proxy war in Ukraine has forced much of the world to take sides, and some countries in Africa see Russia as an alternative to the West. They see a direct benefit from Russia’s forgiving $23 billion in African debt and sending free foodgrain to the region. In a deliberate provocation, the Nigeriens on the streets of Niamey and other towns have been waving the Nigerien and Russian flags for the cameras.

The pushback against France is not new but has accelerated in the past year. Mali, which also saw a coup in May 2022, similarly demanded that the French leave their country, and waved Russian flags along with their own. Ditto with Burkina Faso, which saw two military coups last year. Both Mali and Burkina Faso were suspended from ECOWAS. Both have announced support for the new dispensation in Niger.

Alternatives to the Western model – colonial or the Washington Consensus – are now available and being accessed in Africa. These include Russia through security and resource engagements, China through its Belt and Road Initiative and extractive industries investments, investments by Gulf countries – and in smaller measure by countries like Türkiye and India.

Maybe, as the West repeatedly says, none of these African countries are viable on their own, and that ruthless coup leaders will commit atrocities. Almost certainly they will, and almost certainly there will be chaos. The coups may continue as outsiders exacerbate existing religious and fault lines, and even as French control of those economies erodes.

Historically there have been other templates for these African countries to follow. The Indian example of democratic governance and economic development is one, and the Gulf experience of enrichment through control of its own natural resources, is another.

For now, Nigeriens seem willing to take a chance on their new coup leaders. Even if they are overthrown, perhaps the deluge that follows is one that will ultimately take them on a path that will free them from the neo-colonialism that they currently endure.

About the authors:

  • Manjeet Kripalani is the Executive Director, Gateway House.
  • Amb. Neelam Deo is co-founder, Gateway House and former ambassador to Ivory Coast with concurrent accreditation to Niger, Guinea, and Sierra Leone.

Source: This article was written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.

References

[1] “After Niger’s coup, the drums of war are growing louder,” The Economist, Aug 7, 2023, https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/08/07/after-nigers-coup-the-drums-of-war-are-growing-louder.

The hunt for Russia’s secret ships

Turkey’s strategic straits are a trade superhighway — and a lifeline for the Kremlin’s war machine.


Yörük Işık has been watching the waters in his native Istanbul for over a decade |
 Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images

BY GABRIEL GAVIN
POLITICO EU
AUGUST 14, 2023

ISTANBUL — Yörük Işık puts down his espresso cup suddenly and picks up his camera. “This one is carrying diesel,” he says, training the long lens on a rusted red tanker bobbing into view in the distance. “Maybe in violation of the price cap.”

For more than a decade, he’s watched the waters in his native Istanbul, tracking the comings and goings of the tens of thousands of grain carriers, container vessels and warships that chart a course along the Bosphorus Strait every year. The natural canal flowing through the heart of Europe’s largest city links the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, connecting Russia and Ukraine to the rest of the world.

“I’m obsessive,” he explains, “I don’t like to go too far inland because I have this fear I’ll miss something. You never know what’s going to happen and often you don’t realize it’s suspicious until afterwards. Even when I have free time or I’m writing a report, I sit on my balcony so I can keep an eye out.”

With his long hair and grey beard, Işık doesn’t stand out among the fishermen, tug captains and dock workers making a living in Turkey’s ports. But as a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think-tank, the 52-year-old has built up unparalleled evidence of Russia’s efforts to quietly acquire sanctioned goods and military hardware — while keeping energy and agricultural exports flowing to help pay for them. A regular analyst in Turkish media and on television, his Bosphorus Observer site has become a go-to resource for those tracking the Kremlin’s supply routes.

Ultimately, it’s a battle that could decide the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

“It’s all about finding out what they’re hiding,” he said, looking out from the café on the Bosphorus as the call to prayer wafts across the water from the half-dozen or so white minarets that dot the hillside.

“Sometimes they’ll lie and say a ship is going from one perfectly innocent place to another. They’ll turn their tracking off and go dark in the Black Sea or spoof their location. Along the waterway is endless traffic, it’s like watching an Istanbul taxi rank, but when you look closer and see the ship physically isn’t there, that tells you a lot. The camera doesn’t lie.”
Troubled waters

Just 500 kilometers away across the Black Sea, Russia’s war is raging in Ukraine. Since the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Western nations have imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow in an effort to cut it off from luxury products and dual-use goods that could be repurposed for use on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the G7 club of nations has imposed a $60 per barrel cap on Russian crude oil, threatening steep penalties for traders who flout the rules.

But analysts and policymakers fear not enough is being done to make the restrictions stick and helping Russia get hold of what it wants has become big business for middlemen — both companies and countries — prepared to take the risk.
“It’s very difficult to track what’s coming from Eur
ope to Russia and vice versa,” said George Voloshin, an expert in sanctions circumvention with financial crime watchdog ACAMS. “We have a very incomplete picture because Russia is trying to adapt to increasingly stringent sanctions and once you have a control in place, they find a way around it. Turkey is the gateway for that kind of trade — particularly for European consumer goods.”

According to statistics collated by analytics platform Trade Data Monitor, seen by POLITICO, Turkey is the fifth-biggest source of Russia’s imports, shipping more than $3.6 billion worth of goods and commodities last year alone. Machinery and electronic components are among its top exports for 2023, up 200 percent and 183 percent respectively in the first six months of this year. And that doesn’t even include the supplies that simply transit the Bosphorus without ever formally entering Turkey.

“Ankara has carved a role for itself where on one hand it’s an intermediary in the conflict, but on the other a convenient geographical hub for the re-export of things that Moscow needs,” said Maria Shagina, a senior fellow working on sanctions policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Yörük Işık has spent years building evidence on Russia’s efforts to circumvent sanctions and move military hardware into and out of the Black Sea | Gabriel Gavin/POLITICO

“That ranges from oil and diesel shipments to military hardware. For Russia, this comes at a cost — but, at the moment, it’s profitable and it’s hell-bent on winning a war of attrition this way over time.”
Chasing a shadow

Meanwhile, a so-called shadow fleet of hundreds of aging tankers has emerged on the global market over the past year to haul embargoed Russian energy exports and buy oil above the price cap, giving the Kremlin much-needed revenues to pay its troops and purchase weaponry. Without proper maintenance or insurance, they frequently turn off their transponders to hide the origin of their fuel or carry out ship-to-ship transfers to confuse those watching from afar.

In June, the EU moved to bar these vessels from its ports — but many continue to sail through the Bosphorus.

“The shadow fleet was all under the flag of the Marshall Islands, and they were all deregistered thanks to successful U.S. diplomacy,” said Işık. “Then, in one night, the whole shadow fleet moved to Gabon registration. Maybe next it will move to Cameroon or Palau. When you see these flags, it’s not that they’re immediately guilty, but there’s a higher chance you’ll find something compared to others.”

With warnings that circumvention could prolong the war, costing more Ukrainian lives, Brussels is ramping up pressure to tighten existing loopholes. According to Voloshin, those like Işık who monitor ports and waterways can be “very useful” in piecing together the full scale of the problem and helping target sanctions against those involved. “You need people like that at every single dock and airport, but unfortunately that’s impossible.”

Worse still for the maritime industry, unprecedented Western sanctions mean unsuspecting companies could fall foul of the existing rules inadvertently. “The EU’s latest sanctions package has introduced the first ban on spoofing anywhere in the world,” said Ami Daniel, co-founder of Windward, an Israeli tech firm that tracks vessels suspected of sanctions circumvention using satellite imagery.

“Anyone doing business with vessels suspected of that kind of activity as well as vessel who turn off transmissions or conduct unreported ship-to-ship transfer could face criminal charges, fines or see their goods impounded. If a container under the transit ban — chemicals, automotive, technology — makes an unscheduled stop in Russia, it becomes untradeable, and without due diligence major companies could be caught up in that.”
Playing both sides

Of even greater concern are the ships said to be covertly supplying Russia’s armed forces.

“With naval ships, you can see their flags, it’s not something secret. But some are now disguising themselves as merchant vessels — they might do commercial jobs, or hire civilian crews to hide it, but they’re carrying Russian Armed Forces equipment and not flying a naval flag,” said Işık.


“Turkey isn’t inspecting these ships. During the Syrian war, when there was lots of tension with Russia, Turkey created lots of headaches for naval auxillary vessels, and there’s plenty of evidence put out by people like me that these ships are operating in this way. But Ankara isn’t being creative or coming up with new approaches at the moment.”

Despite being a member of NATO, Turkey has refused to impose sanctions on Moscow, instead hosting a series of ill-fated peace talks and stepping up economic relations with both sides. That policy seems to reflect public opinion inside the country where, according to a poll last year from Aksoy Research, nearly two thirds of Turkish people worry that the war is having a negative impact on their country — but 80 percent believe they still need to stay neutral.

As part of efforts to insulate itself from the consequences of the conflict, Ankara also underwrote the U.N.-brokered grain deal, credited with helping get food supplies from Ukraine’s blockaded ports to the developing world. Its collapse following the Kremlin’s withdrawal last month has sparked fears of famine and led to a spate of Russian attacks on Ukrainian export infrastructure. Turkey’s National Security Council has since warned tension in the Black Sea “is not in anyone’s benefit,” but stopped at calling for the two sides to return to the negotiating table.

The Russian war ship BSF Nikolay Flichenkov 152 passing through the Bosphorus Strait on October 18, 2016 | Ozan Kose/AFP voa Getty Images

“The Turkish government would rather see predictability than not, but it’s clear their government has been compensated from the conflict,” Ryan Gingeras, a professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, told POLITICO. “They’ve abetted stolen shipments of grain out of Ukraine — they’ve made sure they’ve stayed on good relations with Moscow, as well as Kyiv, but the collapse of the grain deal shows the limits to which Ankara can exert influence over the Black Sea.”
War on the waves

Ukraine is now evidently intent on dealing with the threat Russia poses itself.

Last week, Kyiv declared the waters around Russia’s Black Sea ports a “war risk area” from August 23 until further notice. Speaking to POLITICO, Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said that his country views “everything the Russians are moving back and forth on the Black Sea [as] our valid military targets.”

Hours earlier, the Ukrainian armed forces reportedly hit a Russian fuel tanker, the Sig, with a sea drone, causing it serious damage. The ship, sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2019, had been sailing close to Ukraine’s occupied Crimean peninsula, carrying 43,123 barrels of fuel oils.

“The target they chose was the most wonderful one,” Işık beamed.

“The Sig is a ship that, along with its sister ship Yaz, has been assisting the Russian armed forces for more than half a decade now. Hitting the Sig, which is a secret Russian naval auxillary vessel carrying kerosene from refineries in occupied Crimea, hits Russian logistics in Syria, it hurts the profits of the Kremlin-linked elites making money from that trade and cuts the money being used to pay their private militaries.”

“If my work helped Ukraine identify it then I’m proud, because I’ve been after it for a long, long, long time,” he said.“There’s 15-20 other targets like that, and I think Ukraine knows about them all. Given the world has chosen not to take action, they have acted.”

But for Işık, Istanbul isn’t just a place to watch the war unfold — it holds the key to ending it.

“This city has been here for thousands of years because of the waterway,” he said, swilling coffee grounds around the bottom of his cup. “If you control the water, you control the trade — and then you get to decide how the world works.


Campaigner wants Canberra to 'end the uncertainty' for refugees
Sri Lankan refugee Neil Para is walking 1000 kilometres to raise awareness of refugees in Australia, particularly those facing visa problems.

Sri Lankan refugee Neil Para is walking 1000 kilometres to raise awareness of refugees in Australia, particularly those facing visa problems. Photo: Neil Para Facebook


 14 August 2023
Christina Persico


Australia has announced the number of people resettled under its Humanitarian Program has increased to 20,000 a year, up from just under 18,000.

The move has been welcomed by a refugee, who is part-way through a 1000km advocacy walk - but he wants to see more.

Australia's Minister for Immigration, Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs, Andrew Giles, said the Anthony Albanese-led Government reaffirms its commitment to those in need with an increase in the Humanitarian Program annual intake.

But policy for the offshore detention programme - known as Operation Sovereign Borders - remains unchanged.

"With more people displaced worldwide than ever before, the Albanese Labor Government is stepping up to play its part in the global resettlement effort in a responsible way," Giles said in a statement.

"This responsibility extends beyond their arrival, by providing robust support to refugees to ensure they are well equipped to settle into Australia and rebuild their lives with certainty."

Refugee Neil Para and the coalition of refugee groups supporting him have welcomed the increase in the intake.

Para formed the Union of Australian Refugees this year to help give refugees a voice and is walking 1000km to Albanese's electorate office in Sydney to raise awareness of their plight, especially those with no visas or visas that don't give them certainty.

"That is why we formed the Union; we are a voice for refugees who are already in Australia," Para said.

"We welcome the minister's announcement, but we want the minister to please end the uncertainty for those who are already here."

Para has lived in Australia for 11 years with his wife and three daughters, and without a permanent visa.

He will present a petition to Albanese's office at the end of his walk.

His youngest daughter, Nive, has a Medicare card as she was born in Australia and is a citizen, but Para said she does not have the same rights as other Australian children.

Ian Rintoul from the Refugee Action Coalition said they also welcomed the increase, but they were mindful there are around 10,000 refugees already in Australia needing permanent visas.

Sri Lankan refugee Neil Para is walking 1000 kilometres to raise awareness of refugees in Australia, particularly those facing visa problems.

Sri Lankan refugee Neil Para is walking 1000 kilometres to raise awareness of refugees in Australia, particularly those facing visa problems. Photo: Neil Para Facebook