It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Monday, August 28, 2023
See inside a revolutionary flying car that will cost $789,000 and just started test flights
Tim Levin Mon, August 28, 2023 I got to ride in the very first prototype of Aska's flying car. It looked nothing like this rendering of the final version.Aska
Flying cars could finally be on the horizon.
Aska, a California-based startup, is working on an electric aircraft that can drive on US roads.
The Aska A5 is scheduled to land in 2026 with a price tag near $800,000. Flying cars may be closer to reality than you think.
Northern California-based startup Aska is trying to finally deliver what humans have been dreaming about for decades: A car that can drive on the road and then, with the flip of a switch, take off into the sky, "Back to the Future" style.
Here's what it was like to ride in Aska's first prototype — and what the future may hold if the startup gets off the ground.
Meet the Aska A5, a bizarre-looking helicopter-car hybrid that could finally make the dream of flying cars a reality.
Aska's first flying-car prototype is definitely more aircraft than car. Tim Levin/Insider
The world has been collectively obsessed with the idea of cars that can drive and fly for decades, but they haven't taken off in any real way yet. Aska wants to change that.
The California-based startup has been working on developing its flying car since 2018. Aska is targeting commuters who want to live farther from cities. Tim Levin/Insider
It recently finished its first prototype (pictured here), which I got to ride in and see for myself. My test ride lasted about 10 minutes, and we stuck to the ground.
Its prototype recently won approval for flight testing by the Federal Aviation Administration, and Aska has done some hovering so far. The A5 is only designed to travel 10 miles or less. Tim Levin/Insider
It's the second flying car startup to get FAA certification this year, after Alef Aeronautics.
The firm wants to revolutionize commuting and help customers live farther away from their offices in expensive cities like San Francisco, Aska CEO and cofounder Guy Kaplinsky told me during my test ride. A rendering of the Aska A5 flying car.Aska
Aska says the A5 will be able to cruise at 150 mph and travel 250 miles between fueling stops. It's powered by electric motors and a range-extending gas generator.
The A5 will be able to take off and land vertically, like a drone or helicopter, as well as horizontally, like a regular plane. Aska plans to offer a car-sharing service for commuters. Tim Levin/Insider
Its rear wing and propellers can rotate 90 degrees to switch between forward flight or vertical landings. Other companies are working on electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (commonly called eVTOLs), but those flying taxis can't drive on the ground.
For driving on the road, the A5's wings fold inward, creating a more compact, roadworthy package. The prototype is about as large as an F-350 pickup. The final car will be about 30% smaller. Tim Levin/Insider
But you should think of it as an aircraft that can drive, rather than a car that can fly. Aska is looking to get the A5 approved for local roads with slower speed limits at first.
Aska doesn't want to replace your car. It only envisions customers driving 10 miles or less, between their home or workplace and a takeoff location. Aska's flying car will at first be able to drive on local roads with slower speed limits. Tim Levin/Insider
Still, it wants the A5 to be at least somewhat convenient on the road. The prototype is about the size of a huge Ford F-350 pickup truck, but Aska is targeting the footprint of a more modest F-150 for the final product. That should make it easier to park.
The Aska A5 can be yours for $789,000 to start. The company says it's on track to start deliveries in 2026. A rendering of the Aska A5 flying car.Aska
If that's a little too steep for you, Aska is also planning a more affordable car-sharing service.
New York has tried poison, traps, and birth control to fix its pest problem. Rat researchers say the city should focus on its people instead.
Katherine Tangalakis-Lippert Sun, August 27, 2023 The prolific rat problem in New York City is caused at least in part by poor food waste disposal, experts say.
Hershorn/Getty Images
New York City has a pest problem so prolific, the mayor hired a dedicated rat czar earlier this year.
Previous efforts to reduce the rat problem include brutal traps, poison, and birth control bait.
Experts say the real problems are in human behavior and the rats just do what they can to survive.
Earlier this year, New York City Mayor Eric Adams appointed the city's first Rat Czar to oversee efforts to rid the Big Apple of a prolific pest problem that's led to viral memes like Pizza Rat. But experts say people, not rodents, are behind the persistent infestation.
In her role as director of rodent mitigation, Kathleen Corradi — a former school teacher credited with creating the city's Zero Waste Schools initiative while she worked at the Department of Education — has been given a Sisyphean task: To reduce, by whatever means necessary, New York's rat population.
Corradi was appointed after residents reported almost 3.2 million rat sightings to the city's 311 service request line last year, Insider reported. The rats are so iconic to the city that tourists go on walking tours just to catch a glimpse of them.
"Rats are a symptom of systemic issues, including sanitation, health, housing, and economic justice," Corradi said when her hiring was announced. "As the first director of rodent mitigation, I'm excited to bring a science- and systems-based approach to fight rats. New York may be famous for the Pizza Rat, but rats, and the conditions that help them thrive will no longer be tolerated — no more dirty curbs, unmanaged spaces, or brazen burrowing."
Representatives for the New York Mayor's Office and Department of Sanitation did not immediately respond to Insider's requests for comment.
The city has historically focused on population control methods, including brutal spring traps and hazardous poisons to keep the pests at bay. Scientists even developed a rat birth control to be used in baits, according to an essay published Sunday in The New York Times by Jason Munshi-South, a professor of biology at Fordham University. However, it was too costly and ineffective for real-world usage.
But despite years of trying to shoo away or kill the rodents, which can carry and spread parasites and disease, rats in the city are still frequently seen on the subway, in trash cans, and simply walking down the street in search of their next meal.
Rats aren't the real enemy, Munshi-South and other experts, including Michael Parsons, an urban rat researcher and visiting scholar at Fordham University, agree.
Parsons previously told Insider the "real city rats" are "the men and women of bureaucracy and their two-and-a-half centuries of bad practice."
"Ms. Corradi needs to change to science-supported steps rather than unproven, 'gimmicky' approaches," Parsons said, giving examples like relying on unproven methods like composting to reduce the presence of rats.
Instead, city officials should study rodent biology, conduct cleaning during the day while the rats are less active, and develop a more efficient waste disposal system citywide, he said.
Munshi-South also argues that people are the problem — more than rats, which are just seeking food out of survival — could ever be.
"For rats to go away, everyone in the city — plus our restaurants, schools, grocers — must be willing to address the fundamental issue of food waste," Munshi-South wrote for NYT. "New Yorkers waste roughly 6.5 million pounds every day, which amounts to as much as a pound per person. To really have fewer rats, New York norms of takeout and eating outside would have to change."
With a citywide population of over 8 million people, according to 2022 Census records, that challenge may prove more difficult than Corradi bargained for when she accepted the $155,000-per-year position.
She may have been prepared to deal with the rats, but Parsons said the key to her success will be to "understand that rat control begins by changing people's habits, hygiene, and expectations."
Argentina Lifts Wages, Welfare in Defiance of IMF Austerity Push Maya Averbuch Sun, August 27, 2023
(Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s Economy Ministry announced measures to improve government workers’ salaries and funnel money toward retirees and poorer families, defying an International Monetary Fund appeal earlier this month for the country to spend less.
Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who is running for president, outlined measures that include tax-breaks, higher pension payments, additional money for food programs for families with kids, and low-interest credit lines. It also includes financing for export products, according to the announcement made on social media Sunday.
The new plan comes after the Union Por La Patria coalition of President Alberto Fernandez, for whom Massa is a candidate, was surprised by the win of libertarian Javier Milei in the primary this month prior to the October election. The measures could put the government in conflict with the IMF, which approved a cash transfer to the government last week following extensive negotiations over its multi-billion dollar loans, after Argentina failed to meet program targets amid a drought.
NOTE: IMF Board Approves $7.5 Billion Disbursement to Argentina
“The main objective is that every sector of the economy has help, in some way, from the state,” said Massa in a video, citing the devaluation of the currency and the unprecedented climate crisis as reasons to offer financial support to Argentine families.
A condition of the IMF’s aid to Fernandez’s government was that Argentina step up expenditure controls by limiting public wages and pensions. The lender said in a statement last week that the government would implement a temporary increase in taxes on select goods and services to offset losses from drought-related exports.
US Federal authorities have been probing roughly 5,000 pilots suspected of withholding major health issues that could imperil their ability to fly safely, report says
John L. Dorman Sun, August 27, 2023 Veterans Affairs investigators discovered that thousands of American pilots may have falsified their medical history.sharrocks/Getty Images
Federal officials are probing roughly 5,000 pilots suspected of withholding major health issues, per The Washington Post.
Veterans Affairs investigators stumbled on the health record inconsistencies over two years ago.
Some veterans who have been temporarily grounded feel as though they're being singled out.
Federal authorities have been probing roughly 5,000 pilots who officials believe may have falsified their medical records to hide that they were earning benefits for significant health issues that could imperil their ability to fly safely, The Washington Post reported.
The pilots who have had their records examined are military veterans who informed the Federal Aviation Administration that they were suitable to fly, but didn't disclose that they were also receiving veterans benefits for various disabilities that could prevent them from effectively sitting in a pilot's seat.
Veterans Affairs investigators stumbled on the record inconsistencies over two years ago, but the FAA had not publicly disclosed many aspects of the investigation, according to The Post.
FAA spokesman Matthew Lehner told The Post that the agency had been probing around 4,800 pilots "who might have submitted incorrect or false information as part of their medical applications" and indicated that roughly half of the cases were closed. The spokesman also said 60 pilots who "posed a clear danger to aviation safety" were — for the moment — barred from the cockpit while their records were being looked over by officials.
Nearly 600 of the pilots who are being probed have licenses to fly the general public on passenger airlines, according to individuals with knowledge of the cases who spoke to The Post.
Many of the other pilots possess commercial licenses, which gives them ability to be hired to fly for a range of clients.
Pilots have to pass regular health screenings, but according to The Post, the tests are often not always comprehensive. And the FAA is reliant on pilots disclosing conditions that officials may not be able to pinpoint, including depression or post-traumatic stress, according to doctors who spoke to the newspaper and oversee the exams.
According to The Post, some veterans have downplayed their health conditions to the FAA in efforts to retain their eligibility to fly, while also inflating the severity their health conditions to the Veterans Administration in order to boost their disability payments.
Some pilots have been grounded while investigators review their medical history to the FAA.d3sign/Getty Images
Thousands of pilots may be risks to the "flying public"
The Post obtained records that reveal the FAA's Office of Aerospace Medicine since last year has set aside $3.6 million to bring onboard medical staffers to conduct additional reviews of certification records for 5,000 pilots who might present "potential risks to the flying public."
Officials at the Department of Transportation declined to comment to The Post regarding the report.
"The FAA used a risk-based approach to identify veterans whose medical conditions posed the greatest risk to safety and instructed them to cease flying while the agency reviews their cases," the FAA's Lehner said in a statement. "The vast majority of these pilots may continue to operate safely while we complete the reconciliation process."
In some of the closed cases, pilots have been told to resubmit more accurate records and sit for new health exams, while some have been unable to fly until they're cleared by the FAA, according to Lehner and lawyers for affected pilots.
And the VA inspector general's office is now probing some of the 4,800 pilots and will look into whether the Department of Justice should be involved in individual cases regarding potential benefits fraud, according to two individuals who knowledge of the subject who spoke with The Post.
For two decades, the FAA has been aware that thousands of pilots may have been flying with significant health ailments, but transportation officials pushed back against calls for more substantial background checks for pilots, according to The Post.
The FAA review has also brought about an array of criticism from military veterans who feel as though the probes haven't been applied equally.
"If they're going to shine a light on veterans, they need to shine a light everywhere," former Army pilot Rick Mangini told The Post.
Mangini has been unable to fly for his position at a cargo company after his medical certificate lapsed last month; he had not revealed a sleep apnea condition, for which he received benefits from the VA.
While Mangini disclosed on his application that he was receiving disability benefits, he told The Post that he didn't know he had to detail his condition.
"I know of a lot of pilots who have told me about [medical conditions] they aren't telling the FAA about," he said. "What they're doing to veterans? That's the definition of harassment."
A possible future mission for the US's secretive Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade drones? Hunting Russian nukes
Stavros Atlamazoglou Mon, August 28, 2023 at 5:07 a.m. MDT·5 min read A US Marine launches a Switchblade drone during an exercise at Camp Pendleton in California in September 2020.US Marine Corps/Cpl. Jennessa Davey
Russia has devoted increasing military resources to Ukraine but maintains an outpost in Kaliningrad.
Perched on the Baltic, nuclear and conventional forces in Kaliningrad can strike deep into Europe.
Loitering munitions that Ukraine is using may be useful for tracking Russian missiles in Kaliningrad.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022 has pushed tensions between Moscow and NATO to their highest level in decades
Over the past 18 months, there have been close calls along the alliance's borders with the two warring countries, and NATO and Russian aircraft have tangled over the Black Sea. The tense environment has been punctuated by Russian threats of nuclear strikes against the West in response to NATO's military support for Ukraine.
In a future war, the secretive drones the US has supplied to Ukraine — the Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade — could get a new mission: hunting Russian nukes in Kaliningrad. Drones vs. nukes S-400 surface-to-air missile systems at a military base in Kaliningrad in March 2019.REUTERS/Vitaly Nevar
Kaliningrad is a key military outpost sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland on the Baltic coast. It has long hosted both nuclear and conventional forces, though Russia's military has moved several units based there to Ukraine since the fighting started last year.
Kaliningrad's location allows the Kremlin to threaten several NATO members with long-range weapons, and it could be a base from which Russian forces could interfere with a NATO response to a clash with Russia.
While chances of a war with Russia seem low, Kaliningrad still represents "a major threat" to NATO, and the alliance need to invest in troops and weapons to neutralize Russian forces there in case of a conflict, William DiRubbio, a second lieutenant in the US Air Force, wrote in a recent article published by the journal of the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank.
DiRubbio argues that NATO could use special-operations forces to prevent Russia from launching the tactical nuclear weapons it has stored in Kaliningrad by targeting the Iskander ballistic missiles that would likely carry those weapons.
An Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile.Russian Defense Ministry
Going after the Russia's nuclear command-and-control infrastructure "could have immense deterrence and escalatory ramifications" and should be avoided, as should targeting the nuclear warheads themselves, but taking out the delivery platform would thwart Russian nuclear launches, according to DiRubbio.
Since Iskander missiles are mobile, special-operations troops would be "the best method to deal with them," DiRubbio writes, citing missions by the US Army's Delta Force and its British cousin, the Special Air Service, to hunt down and destroy Iraq's Scud missiles during the Gulf War as precedent.
NATO forces could use loitering munitions — drones designed to linger near a target before crashing into and destroying it — for such a mission in Kaliningrad. "A focus should also be on the training of these forces with the Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade drones to assist them in their search and destroy efforts," DiRubbio writes.
Special operators are trained to undertake such difficult missions, and one could see a Delta Force squadron armed with loitering munitions, also known as "kamikaze drones," infiltrating Kaliningrad in order to do it. "To enable quick action in the case of conflict, NATO ought to begin investment in small staging camps near Poland and Lithuania's respective border with Kaliningrad," DiRubbio writes. Switchblade and Phoenix Ghost A US Marine prepares a Switchblade drone for launch during an exercise at Camp Lejeune in North Carolina in July 2021.US Marine Corps/Pfc. Sarah Pysher
The US has sent tens of billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine and provided thousands of weapons, ranging from main battle tanks down to one-way attack drones, like the Switchblade and Phoenix Ghost, that a few soldiers can carry and operate.
With relatively short range, these drones are designed to take out relatively small targets on the battlefield, whether its a few troops in a trench or an armored vehicle. The US has provided a few hundred of those two drones to Ukraine, including both version of the Switchblade.
The Switchblade 300 packs an explosive charge roughly equivalent to a Claymore anti-personnel mine to take out infantry targets. It is fired from a mortar-like tube and has a range of 6 miles, though it can stay in the air for just 15 minutes. The Switchblade 600 is designed for heavy-duty targets, like tanks, and packs an explosive charge similar to that of a Javelin anti-tank missile. It has a range of 24 miles and can stay in the air for about 40 minutes.
Little is known about the capabilities of the Phoenix Ghost loitering munition. However, US officials have stated that it is a one-way attack munition akin to the Switchblade.
Loitering munitions, whether provided by international partners or built by Ukrainian troops have had success in Ukraine, helping shape the battlefield at the tactical level. By pairing them with highly trained special-operations troops operating from forward bases, as DiRubbio outlines, they could also prove valuable in other serious contingencies.
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. He is working toward a master's degree in strategy and cybersecurity at Johns Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies.
Removing Fukushima's melted nuclear fuel will be harder than the release of plant's wastewater
Sun, August 27, 2023
OKUMA, Japan (AP) — At a small section of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant’s central control room, the treated water transfer switch is on. A graph on a computer monitor nearby shows a steady decrease of water levels as treated radioactive wastewater is diluted and released into the Pacific Ocean.
In the coastal area of the plant, two seawater pumps are in action, gushing torrents of seawater through sky blue pipes into the big header where the treated water, which comes down through a much thinner black pipe from the hilltop tanks, is diluted hundreds of times before the release.
The sound of the treated and diluted radioactive water flowing into an underground secondary pool was heard from beneath the ground as media, including The Associated Press, toured the plant in northeastern Japan for the first time since the water release began.
“The best way to eliminate the contaminated water is to remove the melted fuel debris,” said Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings spokesperson Kenichi Takahara, who escorted Sunday’s media tour for foreign media.
But Takahara said the scarcity of information from inside the nuclear reactors makes planning and development of the necessary robotic technology and a facility for the melted fuel removal extremely difficult.
“Removal of the melted fuel debris is not like we can just take it out and be finished,” he said.
The projected decades-long release of treated water has been strongly opposed by fishing groups and criticized by neighboring countries. China immediately banned imports of seafood from Japan in response. In Seoul, thousands of South Koreans rallied over the weekend to condemn the release, demanding Japan to keep it in tanks.
Japan’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday issued a travel advisory to Japanese citizens to use extra caution while in China. It said act of harassment, including massive phone calls, have targeted to the Japanese embassy, consulate and Japanese schools in China, and it urged Japanese in China to stay away from those places and from protests of the water release, and not to talk loudly in Japanese to avoid attention.
Managing the ever-growing volume of radioactive wastewater held in more than 1,000 tanks has been a safety risk and a burden since the plant was wrecked by a massive earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011. The tanks are already filled to 98% of their 1.37 million-ton capacity.
Releasing the water into the sea is a milestone for the decommissioning of the plant, which is expected to take decades. But it is just the beginning of the challenges ahead, such as the removal of the fatally radioactive melted fuel debris that remains in the three damaged reactors, a daunting task if ever accomplished.
The plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, started releasing the first batch of 7,800 tons from 10 of the group B tanks, among the least radioactive water at the plant.
They say the water is treated and diluted to levels that are safer than international standards, and so far, testing by TEPCO and government agencies has found no detectable radioactivity in seawater and fish samples taken after the release.
The Japanese government and TEPCO say releasing the water is an unavoidable step in the decommissioning of the plant.
Since the earthquake and tsunami destroyed the plant’s cooling systems and caused three reactors to melt, highly contaminated cooling water applied to the damaged reactors has leaked continuously to the buildings' basements and mixed with groundwater. Some water is recycled to cool the nuclear fuel, while the rest is stored in the tanks.
The release started at the daily pace of 460 tons and moves slowly. TEPCO plans to release 31,200 tons of treated water by the end of March 2024, which would empty only 10 tanks because the site will continue to produce radioactive water.
The pace will quicken later and about 1/3 of the tanks will be removed over the next 10 years, freeing up space for the plant's decommissioning, said TEPCO executive Junichi Matsumoto, who is in charge of the treated water release. The water will be released over 30 years, but as long as melted fuel stays in the reactors, it requires cooling water under the current prospect.
About 880 tons of radioactive melted nuclear fuel remain inside the reactors. Robotic probes have provided some information but the status of the melted debris remains largely unknown, and the amount could be even larger, says Takahara, the TEPCO spokesman.
A trial removal of melted debris using a giant remote-controlled robotic arm is set to begin in Unit 2 later this year, though it will be a very small amount, Takahara said.
Spent fuel removal from the Unit 1 reactor's cooling pool is set to start in 2027. The reactor top is still covered with debris from the explosion 12 years ago and needs to be cleaned up after putting a protective cover to contain radioactive dust.
Inside the worst-hit Unit 1, most of its reactor core melted and fell to the bottom of the primary containment chamber and possibly farther into the concrete basement. A robotic probe sent inside the Unit 1 primary containment chamber has found that its pedestal — the main supporting structure directly under its core — was extensively damaged.
Most of its thick concrete exterior was missing, exposing the internal steel reinforcement, prompting regulators to ask TEPCO to make risk assessment.
The government has stuck to its initial 30-to-40-year target for completing the decommissioning, without defining what that means. Rushing the schedule could cause more radiation exposure to workers and more environmental damage. Some experts say it would be impossible to remove all the melted fuel debris by 2051 and would take 50-100 years, if achieved at all.
China’s Zijin Mulls $3.8 Billion Expansion of Serbia Copper Mine
Misha Savic Mon, August 28, 2023
(Bloomberg) -- China’s Zijin Mining Group Co. is developing plans to expand its copper mine in eastern Serbia due to demand for the metal considered vital to the global energy transition — an effort that could cost billions of dollars.
The company opened the Cukaru Peki copper and gold mine almost two years ago, with a $678 million investment allowing it to reach reserves a few hundred meters deep. Now it wants to drill down almost 2 kilometers (1.25 miles) to make the most of assets acquired in a takeover spree.
“These are vast reserves, which require additional infrastructure, additional investment of around $3.5 billion to $3.8 billion,” said Branko Rakocevic, the top Serbian official at the mine, whom the Chinese company authorized to speak with reporters.
Across the globe, companies and governments are racing to produce materials considered key to the shift toward a greener economy. Copper in particular is used in wind turbines, power grids and electric vehicles. China is the world’s top-supplier of so-called critical minerals, but the European Union and US are seeking to boost domestic supplies to ensure that they don’t fall further behind in the transition.
Read more: Why the Fight for ‘Critical Minerals’ Is Heating Up: QuickTake
Serbia, a candidate for EU membership, has embraced foreign investors including China as it looks to revitalize an ailing sector of its economy. Australia-based BHP Group, the world’s biggest mining company, is also looking more closely, signing an agreement earlier this year to explore for new copper deposits in the country.
Cukaru Peki is located in the town of Bor, where copper, gold and silver have been mined for over a century. The mine’s lower zone, at depths of more than 460 meters (1,508 feet), is believed to hold 2.2 million tons of copper, more than in the upper zone. Its gold content is thought to be lower at the deeper depths.
The upper zone may be exhausted of its deposits around 2034, while deeper operations could start in 7 to 10 years, according to Rakocevic. Zijin’s long-term plans for the site include building roads, and expanding power supply and flotation facilities, he said. Zijin’s Expansion Zijin bought Serbia’s sole copper and gold complex in 2018, when the government auctioned off the debt-laden business in an effort to save thousands of jobs in an impoverished mining region. Following a string of takeovers, the Chinese company developed full control of what is now Cukaru Peki.
The acquisition — and further investments to expand mines in Congo and Tibet — are helping to transform Zijin into one of the world’s largest copper miners, leapfrogging western producers like Rio Tinto, Anglo American and Antofagasta. By 2025, it expects to produce about 1.2 million tons of copper, a six-fold increase over levels seen in 2017.
Zijin now runs two units in Serbia. One produces copper cathodes, gold, silver and sulfuric acid at facilities co-owned with the government. The other, Serbia Zijin Mining — which operates the Cukaru Peki mine — exports copper concentrate to China, Canada, Bulgaria, Spain and Korea.
The companies have been among Serbia’s top exporters for the last two years, riding a wave of demand for metals. Benchmark copper futures soared earlier this year, though prices have cooled in recent months, largely over concerns about the health of China’s economy.
“Still, copper is in demand always and everywhere” which justifies the long-term investment, Rakocevic said. “The market is stable enough. Prices declined from last year, but we don’t expect much volatility.”
--With assistance from Mark Burton.
Vietnam PM Fighting for Future as Economy Lags Growth Target
John Boudreau and Philip J. Heijmans Mon, August 28, 2023
(Bloomberg) -- While disagreements are common between elected leaders and central bankers, they’re unusual in one-party, Communist-run nations. When they do happen, it’s usually the sign of a power struggle.
That appears to be the case now in Vietnam, which is suffering from an economic slump that will likely see it miss its full-year 6.5% gross domestic product growth target. Although anything close to that would be the envy of many emerging markets, a failure to hit the goal could be career damaging for Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, according to people familiar with the situation.
Chinh, 64, ordered government agencies this month to speed up public investment in a bid to accelerate growth to 9% in the second half of the year. He’s been urging the State Bank of Vietnam to ease access to loans and lower policy interest rates for a fifth time this year. The latter demand prompted a deputy governor to retort that rate cuts aren’t a “magic wand” – rare pushback in a nation where the central bank chief is effectively a cabinet member who reports to the prime minister.
That resistance is of particular concern for Chinh, who saw two of his deputies ousted earlier this year in a corruption purge that also took down former President Nguyen Xuan Phuc, once seen as a potential successor to take the Communist Party’s top job from General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who’s now 79.
Two years ago, Trong became Vietnam’s longest-serving leader since the war era after securing a third term. Following the president’s ouster in January, one of the general secretary’s closest allies — Vo Van Thuong, the youngest member of the Politburo at age 52 — took that job, making him a strong contender to become Vietnam’s top official when the next party congress is held in 2026. Power Play
“They have to build a consensus on the successor, and perhaps they have to remove anyone who may oppose the choice made by Mr. Trong,” said Le Hong Hiep, a former foreign ministry official who is now a senior fellow at the Vietnam Studies Program of ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. Some officials, he added, may want Chinh gone “because if he’s still in power he may be an obstacle.”
All of that is adding pressure on Chinh, whose job is among the four most powerful in Vietnam. And hitting the GDP growth target is seen as a key metric for his success, the people familiar with the situation said.
Vietnamese officials didn’t respond to repeated requests for comment.
Chinh’s urgency stems, in part, from a twice-a-decade confidence vote on the party leadership scheduled for October. Although the premier is expected to prevail in the vote by Communist Party lawmakers, a poor showing could severely weaken his authority.
Once a picture of vibrant and enduring economic growth, export-dependent Vietnam is now experiencing turbulence as global demand wanes. Exports fell for a fifth consecutive month in July, the longest slump in 14 years. Pou Chen Corp., the world’s biggest maker of athletic shoes, has cut more than 8,000 jobs in Vietnam this year as orders fell, according to a media report.
Slow Growth
There’s a “high chance” Vietnam will miss its 2023 GDP target, said Darren Aw, senior country risk analyst at Fitch Group’s BMI Research. “The economy would need to rebound very sharply in the second half, which we think is unlikely to happen.”
Vietnam’s GDP rose 3.72% in the first half, the slowest pace of growth over that time period in at least a decade, excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Instead of cutting the full-year target, Chinh has put pressure on the government and central bank to meet that goal.
In Vietnam, the State Bank reports to the prime minister and has to get the premier’s approval for decisions ranging from adjustments to key policy rates to lending regulations. While the central bank has resisted cutting interest rates further, it has taken other actions, including pressuring lenders to slash deposit rates to accommodate Chinh.
While the July data was encouraging and growth may quicken to 7% in the second half of this year, the premier’s target for the June-December period was “still somewhat of a stretch” against a backdrop of weak demand and subdued credit growth, said Mohamed Faiz Nagutha, an economist at BofA Securities. Bright Spots
“No matter what kind of stimulus you have today, it takes time for it to impact the real economy,” Nagutha said.
The domestic political tension is overshadowing bright spots for Vietnam. The benchmark stock index has gained about 19% this year after underperforming relative to peers in 2022. Inflation of 2.1% in July is slower than many other nations.
Vietnam is also turning into a gaming powerhouse to cash in on a market estimated to exceed $300 billion next year. And the country continues to benefit from efforts by many companies in the West — including key suppliers to Apple Inc. — to reduce their reliance on China. President Joe Biden said he plans to visit soon.
But the economy faces critical risks, from uncertainty in the property sector to potential delays in policy implementation following the corruption crackdown. A depreciating currency could also forestall further interest rate cuts, complicating the premier’s growth push.
To stimulate and broaden trade, officials have been stepping up the charm offensive abroad. President Thuong recently visited Austria, Italy and the Vatican, while Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed a readiness to boost imports after meeting Chinh in June. Vietnam is seeking to boost partnerships with Australia and the US after having already agreed to do so with South Korea last year. On Monday, Vietnam upgraded a bilateral economic pact with Singapore for the first time since it was signed nearly two decades.
Yet for a country touted as a potential winner from US-China economic tensions, foreign investment has been fairly muted so far this year, according to BMI. The total dollar value of registered capital from foreign companies in the first half of 2023 was down 4% from a year earlier and 14% compared to the same period in 2021, according to government data.
Vietnam also risks losing its edge among foreign investors already in the country as bottlenecks including strict visa rules and power shortages roil industrial parks in the northern provinces. European business confidence toward the Vietnamese market dropped 4.5% last quarter, according to a survey published by the chamber in July.
“The Vietnamese government should not make the mistake and take for granted that investors already in Vietnam will just stay in Vietnam,” European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam chairman Gabor Fluit said. “They need to keep working on improving the business environment to give a clear signal to the investors already here.”’
None of that is good news for the prime minister.
“He’s under pressure to get the economy rolling again,” said Hiep from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “This is a kind of an effort to save his political career through economic means.”
--With assistance from Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen and Nguyen Xuan Quynh.
(Updates with economic cooperation pact with Singapore in 19th paragraph.)
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Russia Weighs Unified Fertilizer Trader to Boost Pricing Power Bloomberg News Mon, August 28, 2023
(Bloomberg) -- Russia is considering setting up a unified trading company to export fertilizers in a bid to increase its pricing influence on global markets.
The idea was proposed in July by UralChem PJSC’s founder Dmitry Mazepin, two people familiar with the situation said, declining to be identified because the information isn’t public. It has since been discussed by Industry Minister Denis Manturov and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the people and another person close to the government said. No decision has been taken and it’s not clear when the proposal will be discussed again, all three people said.
Spokespeople for the government didn’t respond to requests to comment. Uralchem’s press service said it’s unaware of the proposal.
Russia is the world’s largest fertilizer maker, with produce accounting for about 15% of global annual consumption. While fertilizer companies haven’t been included in international sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine due to their importance for global food security, Baltic ports have stopped handling most products, contributing to a decline in shipments. An exodus of global shipping companies, some international banks and insurers from Russia has also made it harder to send goods abroad.
Some large fertilizer makers don’t support the idea out of concern it will hurt business, two of the people said. Exports of most types of fertilizers have already recovered to their pre-war levels, so producers don’t see how the proposal will benefit them, the people said.
A unified trading company could give the government more control over export revenues and allow it to exert much greater influence over global pricing. Russia has been demanding smoother export conditions for its fertilizer producers in talks to restore a grain export deal that allowed Ukraine to ship through the Black Sea and that Moscow abandoned last month.
Companies currently trade their goods through Switzerland and other third countries. Russia previously had a potash trading alliance with Belarus that allowed it to control 40% of the nutrient’s global sales and prices via output caps. Potash prices slumped when the deal collapsed in 2013.
The SAG-AFTRA strike is the best thing to happen to Cameo, the short-video app where celebs get paid to make clips for fans, since the lockdowns
Kai Xiang Teo Mon, August 28, 2023 The SAG-AFTRA strike is the best thing to happen to Cameo, the short-video app where celebs get paid to make clips for fans, since the lockdownsCameo
Over 2,400 celebrities flocked to Cameo amid the SAG-AFTRA strike.
It's the largest boost to the platform since the lockdowns in 2020.
Stars joining the platform include Screen Actors Guild president Fran Drescher and actress Alyssa Milano.
Short-video request app Cameo has seen over 2,400 celebrities starting or reactivating their accounts since the actors' strike began in July, the company's CEO told CNN on Sunday.
This latest influx of celebrities to the platform in July marks a 137% increase from June and represents the largest growth in celebrity sign-ups on the platform since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Steven Galanis.
"You just assume that they're making all this money, they're rich and famous, but the vast majority of them just aren't," Galanis told CNN, adding that Cameo was a way for some to "bridge the gap."
The Screen Actors Guild, or SAG strike — has gone on for over a month now — means that the guild's over 160,000 actors are now withholding their labor from Hollywood companies, barring them from acting or promoting their shows.
Before the strike, the SAG and Cameo inked a new deal for actors to count their earnings from "Cameo for Business," personalized marketing video clips made by celebrities for companies, towards health and pension benefits.
Fran Drescher, "The Nanny" actress and the president of the Screen Actors Guild, was one of the performers who restarted their Cameo accounts since the strike began and is charging $1,500 for a personalized video. A message from the actress costs $20.
Milano told the New York Times that Cameo "is a great way to supplement some income during this idle time," while "Everybody Loves Raymond" star Fred Stoller told CNN that requests on the app were "Postmates money."
During the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, actors like "Lord of the Rings" star Elijah Wood also joined the platform, charging $340 for a personalized video.
Yet, the post-pandemic landscape hasn't been all rosy for the company.
Despite the recent influx of celebrities, Cameo has grappled with layoffs, axing 80 of its workforce in July and leaving the company with less than 50 employees, the Information reported. The company previously axed 87 jobs in 2022.
Galanis said at the time Cameo hired too many workers too quickly to "support both fan and talent demand during the pandemic lockdowns."
Cameo did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Insider, sent outside regular business hours.
