Study connects greenhouse gas emissions to polar bear population declines, enabling greater protections under Endangered Species Act

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

 

IMAGE: A POLAR BEAR PHOTOGRAPHED IN THE GREENLAND SEA IN SEPTEMBER 2012. view more 

CREDIT: CECILIA BITZ/UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

New research from the University of Washington and Polar Bears International in Bozeman, Montana, quantifies the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and the survival of polar bear populations. The paper, published online Aug. 31 in Science, combines past research and new analysis to provide a quantitative link between greenhouse gas emissions and polar bear survival rates.

A warming Arctic is limiting polar bears’ access to sea ice, which the bears use as a hunting platform. In ice-free summer months the bears must fast. While in a worst-case scenario the adult bears will die, before then they will lose the ability to successfully raise cubs.

“Until now, scientists hadn’t offered the quantitative evidence to relate greenhouse gas emissions to population decline,” said second author Cecilia Bitz, a UW professor of atmospheric sciences.

Bitz did data analysis for the new report that shows a direct link between cumulative greenhouse gas emissions and polar bear demographic changes. The link largely explains recent declining trends in some polar bear subpopulations, such as in western Hudson Bay. The paper also has policy implications because it allows a formal assessment of how future proposed actions would impact polar bears.

“I hope the U.S. government fulfills its legal obligation to protect polar bears by limiting greenhouse gas emissions from human activity,” Bitz said. “I hope investments are made into fossil fuel alternatives that exist today, and to discover new technologies that avoid greenhouse gas emissions.”

In 2008, polar bears became the first species listed under the Endangered Species Act because of the threat of climate change. The biological link between warming and polar bear survival was clear, and scientists projected that up to two-thirds of the world’s polar bears could disappear by mid-century.

The Endangered Species Act requires that any government-authorized projects, including oil and gas leases, do not further endanger any listed species. But a document released by the U.S. Department of the Interior in 2008, known as the Bernhardt Opinion, required specific proof of how a proposed project’s greenhouse gas emissions would affect a species’ survival before the ESA could be fully implemented for species threatened by climate change.

“We’ve known for decades that continued warming and sea ice loss ultimately can only result in reduced distribution and abundance of polar bears,” said lead author Steven Amstrup, chief scientist emeritus at Polar Bears International and adjunct professor at the University of Wyoming. “Until now, we’ve lacked the ability to distinguish impacts of greenhouse gases emitted by particular activities from the impacts of historic cumulative emissions. In this paper, we reveal a direct link between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and cub survival rates.”

The new paper, published in the 50th anniversary year of the Endangered Species Act and the 15-year anniversary of the listing of polar bears, brings new science to fill that knowledge gap.

Advances in climate science mean that precise links can now be established between emissions and species survival. Bitz was second author on a 2020 Nature Climate Change study that modeled polar bear survival against sea ice decline, connecting polar bear fasting to ice-free days and calculating the annual fasting limits that lead to mortality. That study considered not just adult polar bear’s survival, but also its recruitment success, meaning its ability to have cubs and raise them to the age of independence.

The new paper links ice-free days and polar bear fasting limits to cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. It finds that, for example, the hundreds of power plants in the U.S. will emit more than 60 gigatons of greenhouse gas emissions over their 30-year lifespans, which would reduce polar bear cub survival in the southern Beaufort Sea population by about 4%.

“Overcoming the challenge of the Bernhardt Opinion is absolutely in the realm of climate research,” Bitz said. “When the memo was written in 2008, we could not say how human-generated greenhouse gas emissions equated to a decline in polar bear populations. But within a few years we could directly relate the quantity of emissions to climate warming and later to Arctic sea ice loss as well. Our study shows that not only sea ice, but polar bear survival, can be directly related to our greenhouse gas emissions.”

The study has implications beyond polar bears and sea ice, authors say. The same method of analysis can be adapted for other species and species habitat with direct connections to global warming, such as coral reefs, the endangered Key deer that reside in the Florida keys, or beach-nesting species that are affected by rising sea levels.

“Polar bears are beautiful creatures, and I hope they survive global warming. However, the health and well-being of humans, especially the most vulnerable, is of the utmost importance,” Bitz said. “All of us have experienced heat extremes in the last few years. The harm is inescapable.

"Everything governments and industries can do to reduce greenhouse gas emissions matters, and will help avoid the worst consequences. I’m excited to see the innovative proposals for the Inflation Reduction Act — I hope they stimulate the healthier future that polar bears, and all of us, need.”

The study was funded by Polar Bears International and the National Science Foundation.

 

A polar bear photographed in Churchill, Canada, in November 2021.

CREDIT

Erinn Hermsen/Polar Bears International

Cumulative post-1979 greenhouse gas emissions are shown along the bottom axis. The vertical axis is the number of days that polar bear must fast without access to sea ice as a hunting platform. The results show that regions in Hudson Bay (right columns), which had ice-free months even before 1979, have only slightly longer fasting seasons today. The more enclosed waters of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas (left columns) have experienced a dramatic increase in the number of days that polar bears must fast, and their recruitment failure, or failure to raise offspring, has also risen dramatically. All four populations now have a recruitment failure above zero, meaning their populations are in decline.

CREDIT

S. Amstrup and C. Bitz/Science

JOURNAL

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adh2280 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Unlock the Endangered Species Act to address GHG emissions

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

1-Sep-2023

Landmark study quantifies the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on polar bears, removing an obstacle that prevented climate action

Putting the guts back in the Endangered Species Act

Peer-Reviewed Publication

POLAR BEARS INTERNATIONAL

 

IMAGE: POLAR BEAR view more 

CREDIT: ERINN HERMSEN / POLAR BEARS INTERNATIONAL

Bozeman, Montana – August 31, 2023 – In a new paper, scientists with Polar Bears International, the University of Washington, and the University of Wyoming have, for the first time, quantified a direct link between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and polar bear survival. Published today in Science, the report, “Unlock the Endangered Species Act to address GHG emissions,” provides a template for estimating the demographic impact of proposed GHG-emitting actions on polar bears—overcoming a loophole in the Endangered Species Act (ESA) that has historically blocked climate considerations. The approach outlined in the paper connects the dots between greenhouse gas emissions, the number of ice-free days caused by specific amounts of emissions, and polar bear survival rates. It also explains the recent declining trends observed in some polar bear subpopulations. 

 

Background: Although polar bears were listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 2008 because of sea ice loss caused by climate warming, then-Solicitor of the Department of the Interior, David Bernhardt, issued a legal opinion stating that ESA considerations of emissions would not be required unless the impact of emissions from considered projects could be separated from the impact of all historic global emissions. The inability to make that separation and measure the impact of a specific project meant that climate change—the very reason polar bears were listed—was blocked from inclusion in ESA evaluations. 

 

“We’ve known for decades that continued warming and sea ice loss ultimately can only result in reduced distribution and abundance of polar bears,” says lead author Dr. Steven Amstrup, chief scientist emeritus at Polar Bears International and an adjunct professor at the University of Wyoming, adding, “But until now, we’ve lacked the ability to distinguish impacts of greenhouse gases emitted by particular activities from the impacts of historic cumulative emissions. In this paper, we reveal a direct link between anthropogenic GHG emissions and cub survival rates. The methodology, for the first time, allows us to parse the impact of emissions by source.  Importantly, the approach we describe, using regression analysis to connect GHG emissions to habitat and demographic changes, also has broad application beyond polar bears to other ecosystems and species—and could be used by managers and policymakers around the world when evaluating development projects.”
 

More Context on the Findings and Methodology: Building on the foundation established in a 2020 report linking projected polar bear survival against summer fasting duration caused by global warming, this paper takes the additional step of quantifying the number of ice-free/fasting days caused by a specific amount of CO2-eq emissions, thus allowing for a direct calculation of the impact of a project’s emissions on future polar bear cub recruitment. For example, the hundreds of power plants in the U.S. together will emit 60+ Gt emissions over 30+ year lifespans, which reduce cub recruitment in the Southern Beaufort Sea population by ~4%.

 

The Bernhardt Memo Explained: In 2008, based on projections that up to two-thirds of the world’s polar bears could disappear by mid-century, polar bears became the first species listed under the ESA due to threats from human-caused climate warming. Section 7 of the ESA provides a process ensuring that government-authorized projects (including oil and gas leases) do not further endanger any ESA-listed species. Shortly after polar bears were listed, however, then-Solicitor of the Department of Interior David Bernhardt issued Memo M-37017, claiming impacts of emissions from any individual action or group of actions being considered could not be separated from the impact of historic emissions that have been accumulating since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The limitation described in the Bernhardt Memo has prevented inclusion of global warming emissions from oil and gas leasing, and other GHG-emitting activities, in ESA Section 7 reviews—even though global warming, resulting from GHG emissions, was the reason polar bears were listed in the first place. This new report, published during the 50th-year anniversary of the ESA and 15th-year anniversary of polar bears being listed under the ESA, directly fills the knowledge gap identified in M-37017, allowing GHG emissions from any action to be parsed from historic emissions. This will allow rescission of the Bernhardt Memo and inclusion of GHG pollution in the review of future actions. 

 

"Overcoming the challenge of the Bernhardt Memo is absolutely in the realm of climate research,” says co-author Dr. Cecilia Bitz, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, noting, “When the memo was written in 2008, we could not say how greenhouse gas emissions equated to a decline in polar bear populations. But within a few years we could directly relate the quantity of emissions to climate warming and later to Arctic sea ice loss as well. Our study shows that not only sea ice, but polar bear survival, can be directly related to greenhouse gas emissions."

 

Implications: 

Other Species: The implications of this study go far beyond polar bears and sea ice. The methodology of using regression analysis to link emissions to environmental consequences may be easily adapted for other species and habitats, such as coral reefs, Key Deer, or beach-nesting species impacted by rising sea levels. 

 

U.S. Policy: This report finally addresses the obstacle posed by the Bernhardt Memo and creates a direct link between emissions from individual projects and impacts on ESA-listed species. This gives the Department of Interior the scientific basis needed to rescind the Bernhardt Memo and start including GHG emissions in reviews of all new projects it considers.

 

International Policy: While this report directly addresses a gap in U.S. policy, it has wider implications especially as oil and gas leasing activities continue around the world. Further, this report enables assigning accountability, as emissions can be traced to specific projects and companies looking both backward and forward in time. Such long-term transparency and traceability can inform more sustainable businesses and policies as countries aim to achieve climate and biodiversity targets. 

Polar bear mom and cub

CREDIT

Kt Miller / Polar Bears International

About Polar Bears International
Polar Bears International’s mission is to conserve polar bears and the sea ice they depend on. The organization works to inspire people to care about the Arctic, the threats to its future, and the connection between this remote region and our global climate. Polar Bears International is the only nonprofit organization dedicated solely to wild polar bears and Arctic sea ice, and the staff includes scientists who study wild polar bears. The organization is a recognized leader in polar bear conservation. For more information, visit www.polarbearsinternational.org.

 

About the University of Washington
The University of Washington was founded in 1861 and is one of the preeminent public higher education and research institutions in the world. The UW has more than 150 members of the U.S. National Academies, elite programs in many fields, and annual standing since 1974 among the nation's top five universities in receipt of federal research funding. Learn more at uw.edu.

 

Media Contacts
Annie Edwards, Polar Bears International — annie@fabricmedia.net, +44 0 7307 139 782 
Melissa Hourigan, Polar Bears International — melissa@fabricmedia.net, +1 720 988 3856
Hannah Hickey, UW News — hickeyh@uw.edu +1 206 543 2580

 

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JOURNAL

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adh2280 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Unlock the Endangered Species Act to address GHG emissions

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

31-Aug-2023

 

Three types of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation influence precipitation over the Yangtze river valley in various ways

Peer-Reviewed Publication

INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

 

IMAGE: INTENSE RAINFALL IN YANGTZE RIVER VALLEY DURING SUMMER IN 2023 view more 

CREDIT: SUN BO

The Yangtze River Valley (YRV) is one of the most densely populated and economically developed regions in China. Summer precipitation over this region shows considerable intraseasonal variability with a period of 10–90 days, which can induce extreme precipitation events and lead to massive economic losses and human casualties.

 

The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) is the intraseasonal variability active in the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific region. Over the last three decades, scientists have studied the influence of the BSISO, because it is an essential predictability source in extended-range forecasts.

 

A new study published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters by Prof. Bo Sun’s research team from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology deepens our understanding of the relationship between the BSISO and precipitation over the YRV. Based on the three types of BSISO defined by a recent study, the team found that precipitation over the YRV is affected in various ways, but mainly in terms of its occurrence frequency and duration.

 

The research team obtained their conclusions by analyzing high-resolution reanalysis datasets, which are a blend of past observations and model results.

 

“We classified all selected BSISO events into three types using a cluster analysis method,” explains the corresponding author of the study, Prof. Bo Sun. “Then, we identified the different impacts of these three types of BSISO on summer precipitation over the YRV using composite analysis.”

 

Broadly, this research reveals that these three types of BSISO have different impacts on precipitation over the YRV, but the possible mechanisms leading to the different impacts are also investigated and discussed in the paper, which is important for applying the findings in a practical sense for rainfall forecasting in the region.

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JOURNAL

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

DOI

10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100394 

 

New Danish study on emission factors for nitrous oxide from synthetic and organic fertilizers

The increasing atmospheric concentration of the powerful greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) is mainly due to the use of nitrogen fertilizers in agriculture. A precondition for effective mitigation of nitrous oxide emissions from soils

Peer-Reviewed Publication

AARHUS UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: THE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION OF NITROUS OXIDE PRIMARILY INCREASES DUE TO THE AGRICULTURAL USE OF COMMERCIAL FERTILIZERS AND LIVESTOCK MANURE. A RECENT STUDY HAS DETERMINED THE EMISSION LEVELS OF NITROUS OXIDE FROM VARIOUS SOURCES SUCH AS COMMERCIAL FERTILIZERS, SLURRY, AND BIOGAS SLURRY UNDER DANISH CONDITIONS. view more 

CREDIT: JENS BONDERUP KJELDSEN

In a collaboration lead by Aarhus University, researchers have measured nitrous oxide emissions during two years at four different locations in Denmark, where representative crop rotations had been established to provide a realistic context for the measurements. The experiment included:  

• a crop rotation with milk production in Western Denmark,  
• a crop rotation with milk production in Southwest Denmark  
• a crop rotation with pig production in Southwest Denmark  
• a crop rotation with crop production in Eastern Denmark 

The four locations all have a low soil clay content typical for Northern Europe, while precipitation varied significantly from location to location and between the two years, 2020 and 2021. 

Synthetic and organic fertilizers applied to spring barley  

Spring barley was part of all crop rotations, and here three commercial fertilizers (NS, NPK and UAN) and eight organic fertilizers (three cattle slurries, three pig slurries and two digestates) were applied in 1 m2 subplots at either two or four locations. The exact same fertilizer materials were applied at the different sites to study the interactive effects of local conditions in terms of soil properties and precipitation. The same methods for fertilizer application, measurement and data analysis were used at all sites to ensure comparability.  

"Our side-by-side measurements of nitrous oxide emission from a range of fertilizer materials in spring barley focused on the spring period. In the crop rotation, however, nitrous oxide emission was measured throughout the year in both experimental years, and these measurements confirm that most of the nitrous oxide emissions induced by spring fertilization occur before the crop has 'emptied' the soil of nitrogen," says Professor Søren O. Petersen from the Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University. 

More attention to liquid manure 

In the two experimental years, nitrous oxide emissions from commercial fertilizer were significantly lower than is currently assumed, while emissions from pig and cattle slurry and digestates were on average at level with or higher than previously assumed. This indicates that in Denmark, where 90% is handled as liquid manure, efforts to reduce nitrous oxide emissions from livestock manure will have the greatest effect on the climate.  

"The level varied between sites and years, but we found that nitrous oxide emissions were on average higher from livestock manure than from commercial fertilizer at each of the four sites," says Søren O. Petersen. 

Results differ from IPCC recommendations 

Interestingly, the Danish results differ from the latest recommendations on nitrous oxide emission factors for wet temperate climate from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). In the most recent guidelines, higher nitrous oxide emissions are expected from synthetic fertilizers than from organic fertilizers including livestock manure and digestates. This is based on a global analysis of experimental results.  

"Both results may well be correct, because they are based on different data sets. It shows the importance of studies that represent local conditions," Søren O. Petersen explains.  

Denmark is dominated by soils with low clay content, and almost all livestock manure is in liquid form with or without treatment in biogas plants. This combination provides favourable conditions for nitrification and denitrification, the two microbial processes that together cause the formation of nitrous oxide in the soil.  

"The soil type is important because a well-aerated soil ensures good conditions for nitrification, but also provides good conditions for nitrous oxide produced in and around the liquid organic fertilizer to reach the atmosphere," says Søren O. Petersen.   

In comparison, he explains, almost half of the studies included in the global analysis were done with solid manure, where the risk of nitrous oxide formation is lower because a significant part of the nitrogen may be lost during storage, and net release of nitrogen to the soil is low. More clayey soils will also have a greater tendency for poor air exchange, and thus less risk of nitrous oxide escaping from the soil. 

The new study was part of a collaboration between Aarhus University, University of Copenhagen and SEGES Innovation. It is a project under the Danish Agricultural Agency's Climate Research Program. The studies continue and shed light on, among other things, the effect of nitrification inhibitors on nitrous oxide emissions as a possible climate mitigation measure. 

ITEM	CONTENT AND PURPOSE
External collaborators	Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University, University of Copenhagen and SEGES Innovation.
External funding	This study is part of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries' climate research program (33010-NIFA-19-719)
Conflict of interest	None
Link to the scientific article	The article "Higher N2O emissions from liguid manure compared to synthetic N fertilizers for spring barley on sandy soils in a cool temperate climate" is published in the journal Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. The authors are: Søren O. Petersen, Leanne E. K. Peixoto, Helle Sørensen, Azeem Taripq, Andreas Brændholt, Line Vinther Hansen, Diego Abalos, Alice Thoft Christensen, Cecilie Skov Nielsen, Johannes W.M. Pullens, Sander Bruun, Lars Stoumann Jensen and Jørgen E. Olesen.
Contact information	Professor Søren O. Petersen, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University. Phone: +45 28124304 or email: sop@agro.au.dk

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JOURNAL

Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment

DOI

10.1016/j.agee.2023.108718 

ARTICLE TITLE

Higher N2O emissions from organic compared to synthetic N fertilisers on sandy soils in a cool temperate climate

 

Fossils show ravens lived alongside early humans in Beijing

Peer-Reviewed Publication

CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES HEADQUARTERS

 

IMAGE: NEWLY IDENTIFIED FOSSIL RAVEN WING AND LEG BONES FROM THE UNESCO WORLD HERITAGE ZHOUKOUDIAN “PEKING MAN” SITE view more 

CREDIT: IVPP

While ravens do not occur in China's capital Beijing today, a new scientific study analyzing fossil bird bones from the UNESCO World Heritage Zhoukoudian "Peking Man" site demonstrates that ravens lived in western Beijing at the same time as some of its famous ancient human inhabitants.

The study of raven fossils by Dr. Thomas A. Stidham and Dr. LI Zhiheng from the Institute of Vertebrate Paleontology and Paleoanthropology (IVPP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Dr. Jingmai O'Connor from the Field Museum of Natural History in the U.S.A. was published in the Journal of Ornithology on Aug. 27.

The fossil raven bones were excavated many years ago from the cave site known as Locality 3 on Dragon Bone Hill in western Beijing. Those excavated ancient caves from the Pleistocene Epoch distributed across the hill contained thousands of fossils of birds and mammals, including the first fossils of early humans in China, particularly those of "Peking Man" (Homo erectus) and of our species, Homo sapiens.

Ravens have been closely associated with humans for much of our history. These remarkable black birds have been incorporated into our art, literature, and lives. The identification of Pleistocene age raven fossils at one of the classic cave sites on Dragon Bone Hill in Beijing where the original "Peking Man" cave site is located, helps to show that the relationship between ravens and people may have extended far back into prehistory in eastern Asia.

The Northern Raven, also called the Common Raven, is the largest species of songbird (Order Passeriformes) in the world, with a weight of nearly 1.5 kilograms and a wingspan over one meter. It is mostly a scavenger of carrion but also consumes fruits, seeds, and a wide variety of small animals. It is a nonmigratory bird residing across the northern parts of Europe, North America, and Asia.

Nearly 30 years ago, these bird fossils from Beijing, including an upper arm bone (humerus) and a shinbone (tibiotarsus), were placed in their own extinct species under the scientific name Corvus fangshannus. However, they were not compared at that time to the living raven. In the current analysis, the research team compared the fossils to skeletons of many living species of raven and crow relatives, as well as to extinct fossil species from across Eurasia. Using data from all of those skeletons and bones, the paleontologists identified features of the fossils that are common to some groups of crow and raven relatives as well as other specific anatomical traits that showed these fossils are from Northern Ravens.

Dr. Stidham and Dr. LI reported a large raven skull from a similar cave site in Liaoning Province in northeastern China two years ago. The fossils excavated from cave Locality 3 on Dragon Bone Hill of Zhoukoudian are more than 100,000 years old, whereas the skull from Liaoning Province is nearly 500,000 years old. Since the fossilized animals from the Beijing cave typically lived in warmer areas of China, the mammal fossils from Locality 3 show that Beijing had a warm climate at the time they lived. On the other hand, the Pleistocene cave in Liaoning Province with the raven skull contains fossils showing it had a cold, dry climate.

"Since the Northern Raven is not a migratory species, its presence as fossils outside of its current and historic geographic range across a large part of northeastern China in Beijing and Liaoning Province, during both colder and warmer parts of the Pleistocene Epoch, shows that the raven likely was resilient against climate change," said Dr. O'Connor.

While the Northern Raven appears to have been at least somewhat resistant to climate change in the deep past, its absence during warmer times today leads to a question: Why is it not found in Beijing today?

Lead author Dr. Stidham noted that climate and environmental change are not the only factors impacting where a bird lives. "The fossils from the cave sites on Dragon Bone Hill show us that ancient Beijing was full of large animals like elephants, rhinos, and extinct horses that would have provided carrion to be eaten by local scavengers like hyenas, bears, people, and ravens. With the loss of those large animals at the end of the Pleistocene, we also see the loss of the scavengers in Beijing who ate their meat, including the raven."

The implications of this study extend far beyond Beijing and China. Global researchers continue to analyze and document the diverse responses of birds to climate change in recent decades in order to better conserve them and their ecological relationships. However, those studies largely do not give us data over the longer time intervals needed to clearly prepare for what may happen to birds over the next century of warming climates.

"If we want to better protect birds and other organisms on our changing planet, we need studies like ours that examine the deep past during different global climates using museum fossil collections to identify key factors affecting birds and their responses over the long term," added Dr. LI.

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JOURNAL

Journal of Ornithology

DOI

10.1007/s10336-023-02103-6 

ARTICLE TITLE

The Pleistocene Zhoukoudian ‘Peking Man’ site records the first Beijing (China) evidence of the Northern Raven (Corvus corax)

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

27-Aug-2023

 

FAIR data and inclusive science to enable clean energy

Auburn scientists receive a Department of Energy award to accelerate fusion energy research by developing a Findable, Interoperable, Accessible, and Reusable (FAIR) data platform and training a diverse workforce.

Grant and Award Announcement

AUBURN UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS

 

IMAGE: DR. EVDOKIYA KOSTADINOVA STANDING BY THE COMPACT TOROIDAL HYBRID DEVICE AT THE AUBURN UNIVERSITY'S PHYSICS DEPARTMENT. view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO BY: DR. DAVID MAURER (CTH PI)

Fusion is the process of combining two light atomic nuclei to form a single heavier one while releasing massive amounts of energy. The Sun and all stars are powered through fusion, which makes it the universe's preferred method of producing energy. Recent breakthroughs in fusion research have led to the US government's Bold Vision for Commercial Fusion Energy and the remarkable growth of the global fusion industry.

To accelerate the development of fusion-powered reactors on Earth, the US Department of Energy has selected a collaboration among researchers at MIT (as lead), Auburn University, William & Mary, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and the HDF Group to receive close to $5 million in funding. The project will develop a platform where data from different fusion devices, including Auburn’s Compact Toroidal Hybrid (CTH), is managed according to Findable, Interoperable, Accessible, and Reusable (FAIR) standards and UNESCO's Open Science (OS) recommendations. The data will also be adapted for use with machine learning (ML) tools. The platform's databases will be built using MDSplusML, an upgraded version of the MDSplus open-source software developed by MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center researchers in the '80s to catalog the results of the Alcator C-Mod’s experiments. Today, nearly 40 fusion research institutes use MDSplus to store and provide external access to their fusion data. The release of MDSplusML will enable free exchange of data and models across institutions, thus speeding up progress in fusion research.

The Auburn portion of the project is led by Dr. Evdokiya (Eva) Kostadinova, an Assistant Professor in the Physics Department, who specializes in interdisciplinary plasma research. Kostadinova and her students will collaborate with Dr. David Maurer, an Associate Professor in the Physics Department and head of CTH. In Auburn's CTH experiment, magnetic fields can be shaped in different ways to confine a hot plasma – the state of matter in which fusion reactions occur. Open-sourcing CTH data and adapting it for use with ML tools will allow researchers to explore various concepts for fusion reactors. On the significance of this award, Kostadinova comments, "Fusion research has made remarkable progress, which is evident from multiple exciting results from experiments worldwide. However, true breakthroughs rely on strong collaborations committed to open science and a diversity of viewpoints. This project will enable such collaborations and will allow us to use machine learning to uncover fundamental science hidden in big datasets."

In addition to being a cross-institutional collaboration between four universities and an industry partner, the project also includes a strong focus on workforce development. With four out of five PIs being women scientists, the team hopes to inspire and encourage diversity in the next generation of fusion scientists. To make this a reality, each year of the project the College of William and Mary will host a summer school where undergraduate students will learn how to employ ML techniques in fusion research. On the role of diverse leadership, the MIT lead, Dr. Cristina Rea, says, "Having the opportunity to lead such an important project is extremely meaningful, and I feel a responsibility to show that women are leaders in STEM. We have an incredible team, strongly motivated to improve our fusion ecosystem and to contribute to making fusion energy a reality."