Monday, September 04, 2023

Opinion

When Elon Musk’s ‘flying sofas’ give Ukraine internet access, we can’t sit comfortably



John Naughton
THE GUARDIAN
Sat, 2 September 2023 

Photograph: Malcolm Denemark/AP

In February 2022, as Russian tanks rumbled into Ukraine, a cyber-attack took down the satellite system run by Viasat that was providing high-speed communications for Ukrainian military forces, rendering them instantly blind, deaf and dumb. With his forces knocked offline, the Ukrainian digital minister sent a plea to an American billionaire, one Elon Musk, for help. Within hours, Musk responded that his Starlink system had been activated in Ukraine. Days later Starlink terminals began to arrive.

Pause for context update. Musk is the founder and Supreme Leader of SpaceX, an innovative firm that has found a way of building reusable heavy rockets that can launch cargo into Earth orbit and safely return ready to be used again, which is a very big deal, and probably why Nasa has become one of its regular customers. In 2019, SpaceX started launching smallish – “sofa-sized”, according to the New York Times – communications satellites into low-Earth orbit with the aim of eventually providing a global mobile phone system called Starlink. Thus far, it has mostly been providing internet connectivity to 60 countries via about 4,500 satellites, but it’s said that Musk plans to have 42,000 of them up there eventually, which is an awful lot of flying sofas.

The service is available in the UK, by the way. So if you live in a remote part of the Highlands and have given up hope of ever getting a terrestrial broadband connection from BT, Musk could come to your aid. The necessary terminal costs £499 and you can get 100Mbps download speeds with low latency for £75 a month. Or so the website says.

At the moment, there are something like 42,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine – in use by the country’s armed forces, hospitals, businesses and aid organisations. The service has clearly been vital to the war effort. It has given Ukrainian forces a major advantage over their adversary – sometimes reducing the time from finding an artillery target to hitting it from 20 minutes to two. “Without Starlink, we cannot fly, we cannot communicate,” one Ukrainian commander told the New York Times. “The huge number of lives that Starlink has helped save can be measured in the thousands,” Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister, told the paper. “This is one of the fundamental components of our success.”

I’m sure it is, but complacency would be unwise, for there is one unknown variable in this fraught equation: Elon Musk, who is famously erratic, volatile and occasionally incomprehensible. He’s in total control of the Starlink service and reportedly has used that power to determine where and how Ukrainian forces can use it. The New York Times reports, for example, that he refused their request last year to provide Starlink access near Crimea, the Russian-controlled peninsula, so it could send an explosive-filled maritime drone into Russian ships docked in the Black Sea. He later said that Starlink could not be used for long-range drone strikes, and proposed a fatuous “peace plan” that included acceptance of Russia annexing parts of Ukraine, and suggested in a newspaper interview that China could be appeased if it were given partial control of Taiwan – which might have something to do with the fact that half of all Tesla cars are now made in Shanghai, and that Xi Jinping is a supporter of Putin’s current expansionist venture into a territory that he regards as rightfully Russia’s.

So here we have an eccentric billionaire with several conflicts of interest playing a vital role in a major terrestrial war with no obvious end in sight. And the funny thing is that this might be just a dummy run for the next geopolitical conflict zone – space – and in particular the zone of low-Earth orbit, in which Musk already owns more than half of all the operational satellites up there and has plans to increase his stake ten-fold. Which makes one wonder if he’s been reading Robert Heinlein’s observation that “Once you’re in Earth orbit, you’re halfway to anywhere.” Including, perhaps, out of your depth.
SCOTLAND FOREVER
Humza Yousaf estimates 25,000 attend independence rally in Edinburgh

Rebecca McCurdy
THE SCOTSMAN
Sat, 2 September 2023 

First Minister Humza Yousaf addresses crowds in Edinburgh on Saturday following a pro-independence rally which he estimated 25,000 people attended. PIC: Lisa Ferguson.

The First Minister addressed the crowd outside the Scottish Parliament, following a march down the city’s Royal Mile from Edinburgh Castle.

Mr Yousaf told journalists after the rally that approximately 25,000 people attended the Believe In Scotland event.

Delivering a speech outside Holyrood, he told the crowd that Scotland was facing a “cost-of-union crisis” as he made the case for Scotland’s place in Europe, secured through independence.

He said: “Let me tell you, ladies and gentlemen, the people of this country – they’re not suffering from a cost-of-living crisis, they’re suffering from a cost-of-union crisis.”

Mr Yousaf also took aim at the UK Government’s immigration policies as he said Scotland would be a welcoming place for all nationalities.

Asked if he can deliver on the goal, he said: “That’s certainly the aim, certainly the hope.

“There’s not a short cut to independence, we understand and know that. The UK Government and UK parties continue to deny the democratic mandate that we have.

“We’ve got to create the conditions to make it impossible for them to ignore. The only way we do that is by mobilising the power of the people.”

He also reiterated that the “plan A” towards independence is to test the support for independence at the Westminster election, however the SNP is set to decide on a concrete method at its conference next month.

Government ministers Lorna Slater and Jamie Hepburn also delivered speeches.

The Scottish Greens co-leader Ms Slater took aim at the conflict the Scottish Government has had with Westminster in recent months, including the section 35 order of the Scotland Act which blocked controversial gender reforms.

She said: “Every day when I’m at work I am asking: ‘What we can do to make things fairer, how we can make sure more people get a living wage, how we can do more for the climate?’ And I’m told: ‘We can’t do that, those powers are not devolved.’

“And that’s before Westminster began rolling back the powers that our Parliament has and disrespecting this Scottish Parliament.

“They’re pushing back on the work we are doing for equalities and for our environment, things we believe in deeply and that we know matter to the people of Scotland.”

However, Donald Cameron, constitution spokesman for the Scottish Tories, said: “Humza Yousaf needs to realise he is the First Minister for Scotland, not the SNP, and his appearance at the independence rally shows his top priority is to push for another divisive referendum.

“People across Scotland will be infuriated that the First Minister attended this march and believes separating our country is more important than helping households through the global cost-of-living crisis and fixing our broken NHS and crumbling schools.

“Humza Yousaf continues to be completely out-of-touch with public opinion and people are rightly seeing through his reckless behaviour.”

 

Activists prepare for yearlong battle over Nebraska private school funding law

If the law is repealed, Nebraska would join North Dakota as the only states not offering some type of public payment for private school tuition.

Corrin Day, from left, Cindy Maxwell-Ostdiek and Garrett Connely deliver petition signatures from Support Our Schools Nebraska to the Nebraska Secretary of State, Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2023, in Lincoln, Neb. Organizers of an effort to have Nebraska voters weigh in on whether to use taxpayer money to pay for private school tuition scholarships said Wednesday they have more than enough signatures to put that question on the November 2024 ballot. (Justin Wan/Lincoln Journal Star via AP)

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Activists declared a victory this week in their fight to repeal a new Republican-backed law allowing Nebraska taxpayer money to be used for private school tuition. But both sides acknowledge that the battle is just beginning.

If the law is repealed, Nebraska would join North Dakota as the only states not offering some type of public payment for private school tuition. Opponents said Wednesday that they’d gathered nearly twice the roughly 60,000 signatures needed to ask voters for repeal.

“If this initiative makes it onto the 2024 ballot, I can promise you the fight will not be over,” Gov. Jim Pillen said.

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Both Nebraska and North Dakota passed bills earlier this year to fund some private school tuition. North Dakota’s bill set aside $10 million in taxpayer dollars for private school tuition reimbursement. The legislation was later vetoed by the governor.

The effort to protect Nebraska’s law has drawn conservative support nationally, including from the American Federation for Children, founded Betsy DeVos, former Trump administration education secretary. National groups are trying to make their mark on school policies following COVID-19 lockdowns and ongoing fights over transgender policies.

Nebraska’s law would allow businesses, individuals, estates and trusts to donate millions of dollars a year they owe collectively in state income tax to organizations funding private school tuition scholarships.

Support Our Schools, an organization sponsored and heavily funded by public education unions, began gathering signatures June 6 with a goal of collecting 90,000 in three months. By Wednesday’s deadline, the group turned in 117,000 signatures to the Secretary of State’s office, which will spend the next few weeks determining whether enough of them are valid for the question to make the ballot.

The higher-than-expected number of signatures is indicative of public sentiment against using taxpayer money for private schools, organizers said.

Supporters of the private school funding plan, including the state’s powerful Roman Catholic lobbying group, launched an aggressive effort to counter the petition drive, blanketing the state with ads urging people not to sign the petition. They also sent 11th-hour mailers with an affidavit that petition signers could use to get their names removed.

Faced with the likelihood that opponents have collected enough signatures to get the question on the ballot, supporters have pivoted to declare a victory of sorts, noting that petitioners failed to get the roughly 122,000 signatures needed to stop the law from taking effect on Jan 1.

“When the bill takes effect, we look forward to the first round of scholarships reaching children in need for the 2024-2025 school year,” said Tom Venzor, director of the Nebraska Catholic Conference, the state’s Catholic lobbying group that advocates for the church’s 110 private schools in the state.

“Our goal has always been to help as many kids as possible as quickly as possible, and we can do that now,” Keep Kids First Nebraska, the group started to counter Support Our Schools, said in a statement.

Opponents answered that optimism with a shrug, noting that companies and people are always free to make charitable contributions to private school tuition scholarship programs. But voters could repeal the scholarship law before 2025, when the law’s dollar-for-dollar tax credits would be claimed, said Karen Kilgarin with Support Our Schools

Taiwan: Typhoon Haikui makes second landfall

Published 09/03/2023

Typhoon Haikui initially appeared to move through Taiwan and out to sea before its surprise second landfall on Monday. It is now heading towards China.














Over 7,000 were evacuated, hundreds of flights were canceled, and more than 217,000 households lost power
I-HWA CHENG/AFP/Getty Images

Parts of Taiwan were grappling with floods, downed trees, and continued rainfall after Typhoon Haikui made a second landfall early on Monday.

On Sunday, coastal Taitung bore the brunt of the typhoon's initial impact. The typhoon was downgraded to a severe tropical storm after its surprise second landfall in southwestern Kaohsiung.

Haikui initially appeared to move through the island and out to sea before the second landfall.

Thousands evacuated

Over 7,000 were evacuated, hundreds of flights were canceled, and more than 217,000 households lost power. By Monday, 58,000 homes were still without electricity. There were no reports of any deaths.

Local reports highlighted significant flooding in Kaohsiung, and nearly 80 individuals suffered minor injuries during the storm.

Schools and businesses in 14 cities remained closed due to the heavy rain.


President urges caution

Typhoon Haikui brought torrential rain and strong winds to eastern Taiwan on Sunday becoming the first major storm to hit the island directly in four years.

On Sunday,President Tsai Ing-wen asked people to practice caution as Haikui "will be the first typhoon to make landfall in Taiwan in four years."

She asked people to avoid going out and not to go up the mountains, to refrain from going towards the coast, fishing or engaging in water sports.

Taiwan's president asked people to maintain caution as the country braces for Haikui Image: CARLOS GARCIA RAWLINS/REUTERS

Taiwan has also mobilized its soldiers and other equipment like amphibious vehicles and inflatable rubber boats.

Haikui is now set to affect southern and northeastern regions.
Haikui considered a weaker storm than Saola

According to the Tropical Storm Risk tracker, Typhoon Haikui was expected to be a category 1 or 2 typhoon when it hit Taiwan.


It is considered to be a much weaker storm in comparison to Typhoon Saola which hit Hong Kong and southern China on Saturday.

By Monday morning, China's national weather and ocean forecasters issued alerts for Haikui as it moved into the Taiwan Strait, heading towards China.

Taiwan last experienced a storm in 2019 called Typhoon Bailu which claimed one life.

ss, rm, ns/sms (Reuters, AFP)

Manipur violence threatens women’s football status

John Duerden

Manipur has long dominated women's football in India, but that success has been jeopardized by violent outbreaks. Whether women's football can get back on track and play a part in unifying the state remains to be seen.


The recent violent outbreaks in Manipur are threatening to have a long lasting impact on sport in the region, especially for girls and women.

Warning: This article contains descriptions of sexual violence

Manipur has long been famous in India as a sporting powerhouse and the driving force behind women's football on the subcontinent. However, in recent months, the northeastern state bordering Myanmar has made international headlines for different reasons.

Ethnic tensions spilled over into violence in May, when the Kuki tribal group, who reside mainly on the hills, clashed with the majority Meiteis, primarily residents of the Imphal Valley, on the question of land resources and political representation. Around 160 people were killed, and it was estimated that between 40,000 to 60,000 had been forced to flee their homes.

The situation in the state that is home to three million people subsequently quietened, but violence flared again on August 29. According to local reports, 18 people were killed in these latest clashes between the Kukis and Meiteis.



There are concerns that Manipur's status as a sporting powerhouse, especially for women's football, could be negatively affected in the long term.
Equality in Manipur sports

With a strong female sporting culture, Manipur's women won the National Women's Football Championship in June for the 21st time out of 26 editions and have consistently kept the national team supplied with talent.

"Football is the number one sport in Manipur, and men and women have been equal across sports. Physical fitness among women is encouraged, and they match the men," Ngangom Bala Devi, a Manipur native and star forward of the India Women's team who recently left Scottish club Rangers, told DW. "This is now spreading elsewhere in India but has traditionally been true in Manipur in a number of sports and not just football."

Manipur resident and local news editor Debanish Achom also highlighted the state's traditionally egalitarian culture and its natural sporting advantage.

"Everyone, men or women, takes up some sports, and football happens to be one of them," Achom said. "And since Manipur women are relatively empowered to go out and be independent, they get the time and confidence to play. Manipur's weather is also favorable for football, as it's colder than mainland India, where the summer temperature is very high."

Leveling the Playing Field  12:36



Negative effects of the violence

The egalitarian culture did not match the image broadcast worldwide in July when a video surfaced of two naked Kuki women publicly paraded by a group of Meitei men. It has been alleged that the women were gang-raped. India Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the incident had shamed the country and promised those guilty would face justice.

"This video was shared widely on social media, which sparked outrage across India," said Achom. "These visuals of the ethnic clashes in Manipur have contributed to the deteriorating image of the state as a place that is unsafe for women."

It also makes it harder for girls and women to play football, especially as whole areas of the country are shut down while security forces seek to take control of the situation.

"There are two different regions, the plains and hills," Bala Devi said. "Those who live in the hills can't travel to the plains, and those in the plains can't go to the hills."

The players at the top levels are still in action for clubs around the country and in national team training camps. "It is lower down the levels where it may be a problem. It is a concern at the grassroots level and for younger girls who have had their lives disrupted," Bala Devi continued.

Such concerns could be costly for the state's future as a sporting superpower. "Training grounds won't be maintained due to lack of funds as the government is busy spending on relief and rehabilitation, and practice sessions will be disrupted by frequent public shut-downs amid the intermittent violence," said Achom.

"Players who live in the hills of Manipur won't be able to come to the state capital of Imphal, where sports infrastructure is available, due to road blockades and ethnic tensions. This is even before the psychological impact of the violence with players and their families as possible victims."
The role of football

Yet, while football and sports have taken a back seat during the recent troubles, there is hope that the game can show the way forward.

"I have played for my state and country for years, and all of us — Meiteis, Kukis or anyone else — have played for India, and it has never been an issue for us," said Bala Devi.

Former India women's national team captain Bala Devi is the most prominent player to hail from Manipur
Alex Todd/Sports Press Photo/imago images

"We play and train together. Football is a unifying force, and there are no differences between us. The people in Manipur have been divided by violence, but football can bring them together," she added.

If Manipur can find peace and get back to playing football, then the future is bright for India's women, especially as the expansion of the World Cup from 24 to 32 teams has opened up the tournament to new nations. At the recent 2023 tournament, several smaller football nations performed well.

"If the Philippines can qualify, then so can we, as they were ranked behind India at the time," said Bala Devi. "Morocco, Jamaica and Haiti have come up, and we can do it too."

It all comes back to time on the pitch and support. "The main concern is that we don't get regular football, and the leagues are scattered in different states with a national league that lasts only a month or a month and a half, and we need seven to nine months."

An Indian Super League for women could be a game-changer.

"The men's league is quite good now, and if we have the same support as the men, then we can qualify" for the Women's World Cup, Bala Devi said. "I want to play at the World Cup before I retire, and I will be 37 next time, and it would be great for Ind
Does Europe need Niger's uranium?

Martina Schwikowsk

Will the lights go out in Europe if Niger were to prevent France from mining more of its uranium? DW asked experts in Niger and Europe about the energy supply chain in the wake of the coup.

CHARTS/INFOGRAPHICS

The French-owned Orano uranium mine near Arlit in northern Niger
Maurice Ascani/Areva/AP Photo/picture alliance

Niger's greatest treasure lies underground: Uranium is the most important commodity in the Sahel state. But coup plotters have been in charge for just over a month, fueling fears that the uranium supply to global markets is in jeopardy.

France, the former colonial power in Niger, is in a particularly tight spot. Around two-thirds of its electricity comes from nuclear power plants powered by uranium sourced in Niger. It also exports electricity to other countries in Europe that have no nuclear plants of their own.

Dealings with France 'unequal'


In the wake of the coup in Niger on July 26, the economic cooperation and military partnerships between the two countries are on the line.

Niger's new military junta under General Abdourahamane Tiani has signaled it is tired of France.

When it took power, the junta ordered a halt to uranium exports and later gave the French envoy 48 hours to leave. Ambassador Sylvain Itte, however, has stayed on in Niamey despite the expulsion. The government of President Emmanuel Macron doesn't want to give up its influence or supply of raw materials, but there is little tolerance in Niger.

"Everyone in Niger feels this partnership is very unequal," said Mahaman Laouan Gaya, a former Nigerien energy minister and the Organization of African Petroleum Producers (APPO) secretary general until 2020.

In an email to DW, Gaya cited what he said were significant inconsistencies. Niger, he wrote, exported uranium worth €3.5 billion ($3.8 billion) to France in 2010 but received only €459 million in return.

"If Niger decides not to export uranium to France, it will have dramatic consequences for France but little impact on the Nigerien economy," Gaya said.

He added that some 90% of Niger's population has no electricity, and price exploitation means Niger today also receives too little income for its exports.

Has uranium production stopped?


For decades, the French nuclear conglomerate Orano (formerly Areva) has been mining uranium in Niger. The material is used mainly to produce fuel rods for France's 56 nuclear power plants.

It is unclear whether the junta's moratorium on uranium exports is being implemented.

"The current crisis has no short-term impact on Orano's supply capacity," a company spokesman recently told the AFP news agency.

Meanwhile, Niger's former prime minister and opposition leader, Hama Amadou, told broadcaster Voxafrica that the mining company was still producing uranate, the basis for uranium.

"I don't think the new authorities have canceled the uranium mining contracts between France and Niger," Amadou was quoted as saying in the report. "So what is the French state afraid of when it comes to its interests in Niger?"

The Niamey headquarters of French-owned uranium producer Somair
Joerg Boethling/IMAGO

Niger mines firmly in French hands

Somair exploits the largest uranium mine in the Sahara, located on the outskirts of the city of Arlit. The company is 63% owned by France's majority state-owned Orano group. Sopamin, a Nigerien state-owned company, owns the remaining 37%.

In 2021, the Somair mine accounted for more than 90% of Niger's uranium exports. France and the ousted government of Mohamed Bazoum had also agreed to restart another mine.

And in May, Orano signed new contracts with the Nigerien government, extending French uranium mining in the country until 2040.

Nigerien journalist Seidick Abba said the coup did not change these commercial agreements between corporations.

"The uranium will still be shipped from the mine near Arlit to France via Cotonou. The contract does not give Niger the right to stop the shipments," Abba told DW.

"The junta has no way to stop the deliveries."

Europe has other suppliers

Last year, France received about one-fifth of its uranium from Niger, according to Euratom Supply Agency data. Central Asian states like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan also supplied significant amounts of uranium to France.

As recently as 2022, Niger was France's third-largest uranium supplier, says Alex Vines of the London-based think tank Chatham House. But the dependence is overestimated, Vines told DW.

"France does business with countries like Kazakhstan, Australia, and Namibia. It can easily diversify its uranium supply," said Vines.

According to the World Nuclear Association, only 5% of the uranium sold on the global market in 2022 came from Niger.

Some analysts warn of price increases with far-reaching effects if no or less Nigerien uranium were to reach the global market.

In 2022, French nuclear power dominance in Europe was visible when energy prices increased as many power plants ran out of cooling water.

Europe has been searching for alternative uranium supplies. Kazakhstan has already signaled, according to reports, that more uranium could be shipped to Europe if needed.

But doubts and worries about whether the lights could go out in Europe because of the conflict in Niger were dispelled by European Commission spokesman Adalbert Jahnz.

He said the European Union (EU) has sufficient stocks of natural uranium to cushion short-term supply risks. There are "sufficient deposits on the world market in the medium and long term to meet the EU's needs," according to Jahnz.
Another Russian mercenary group shows discontent with the Kremlin: ‘A sign of more to come’

At the end of August, Ukraine declared it had finally managed to pierce Russia’s first line of defence after retaking the small village of Robotyne in Ukraine’s south. This key advance coincided with a Russian mercenary group’s threat to stop fighting on Russia’s behalf on the front lines of the village and could be a sign of more anti-Kremlin sentiment brewing among those fighting for Moscow.


Issued on: 04/09/2023 - 
Ukrainian soldiers of the "Skala" battalion enter the embattled village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region on August 25, 2023. The same day, fighters belonging to the Russian mercenary group Rusich had threatened to lay down arms.
 © Skala battalion via Reuters

By: Louise NORDSTROM

Robotyne has been liberated,” Ukraine’s deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar announced on August 28.

Although the tiny village, which had a pre-war population of fewer than 500 people, may be of little importance in itself, it lies along a strategic road that leads to the Russian-occupied road and railway hub of Tokmak. From there, another road leads to the key city of Melitopol, which, prior to Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, was known to Ukrainians as the “gateway” to the peninsula. Last week’s victory was therefore an important advance for Ukraine.

Just a few days earlier, however, fighters from Rusich, a small Russian neo-Nazi paramilitary group stationed at Robotyne’s front line, had threatened to lay down their arms – a move that may have contributed to Russia’s stinging loss there.

The official reason for the threat to lay down arms, Rusich explained in an August 25 statement on Telegram, was that one of the group’s top commanders and founding members, Yan Petrovsky, had been detained in Finland and faced extradition to Ukraine – and the Russian government was not doing much about it.

Petrovsky, a dual Russian-Norwegian national, co-founded Rusich back in 2014 to take part in the Russian occupation of Donbas and is believed to have been a contractor for the Wagner Group at one point. He faces various terrorism-related charges in Ukraine and risks being sentenced to between 15 and 20 years in prison if he is extradited.

In a series of messages screen-grabbed by the research project Antifascist Europe, Rusich members expressed frustration with their treatment by the Russian authorities.

“If the country cannot protect its citizens, why should the citizens protect the country?” asked one.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the group did indeed seem to be operating near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast, describing it as “a critical area of the front line where the Russian military command likely cannot afford for any units to rebel and refuse to conduct combat missions”.

Soon after ISW issued its analysis, Robotyne fell to Ukraine.

There has been no official confirmation – either from Rusich or the Russian defence ministry – that the group’s fighters did stop fighting.

According to Jeff Hawn, a non-resident fellow at the Washington, DC-based think-tank New Lines Institute and an expert in Russian military matters, it would have been a credible scenario.

"There's a very strong possibility" that the mercenaries laid down arms, which would likely have contributed to the fall of Robotyne, he said. Russia is so short of fighters it cannot replace units that give up, he said, adding that we likely won't know "for years" what really happened.

Hawn said the reason for a revolt would likely have less to do with the detention of the group’s leader than with a loss of motivation among Russian mercenary fighters in general, coupled with Moscow’s increasing inability to keep them under control.

“These guys are likely just looking for an excuse to get out,” he said. “They’re realising that Ukraine isn’t just going to break and give up.”

The situation for paramilitary groups has been further complicated by Wagner’s attempted mutiny back in June and the death of the mercenary group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, late last month.

Under Prigozhin’s leadership, Hawn explained, Wagner had long served as an organising tool for other Russian militia groups operating in Ukraine. Prigozhin had also established a culture of paying his mercenaries well, and in dollars – a culture that spread to the other militias fighting in Ukraine.

“Even though he had a reputation of being a tough guy, a thug, Prigozhin was known to take good care of his people, paying them more, and in hard currency.”

Following the group’s botched mutiny, however – and Moscow’s subsequent attempts to try to dissolve the group – the working conditions for Prigozhin’s “militia collective” in Ukraine worsened.

“They’re probably getting paid in rubles now – if they’re getting paid at all,” Hawn said.

“They’re also probably not getting supplied, because militia groups are at the very lowest end of the totem pole when it comes to Russian logistics, which are completely overstretched already.”

Before his death, Prigozhin had long complained that the Russian military was not supplying his mercenaries with enough ammunition, even threatening to pull his troopsfrom the front line in the hard-fought city of Bakhmut.
Prigozhin’s death – and that of his reported right-hand man Dmitry Utkin in a plane crash on August 23 – also wiped out a whole shadow power structure built upon both connections and the ability to command the “thugs and criminals” fighting as mercenaries.

“There’s no one like Prigozhin who currently has the will, or ability to challenge the government directly,” Hawn said. With the Wagner leader now out of the picture, he said, it will become even harder for Moscow to control the dozen or more militia groups still in Ukraine.

Even worse for Moscow, Hawn said, would be if they were willing to switch sides.

“It wouldn’t surprise me if some of these guys repent and suddenly joined the Free Russian Legion, especially if they’re getting paid in dollars,” he said, referring to a group of pro-Kyiv Russian fighters that claimed to have staged several attacks in Russia’s Belgorod region in recent months.

“I do think the incident in Robotyne is significant, and that it’s a sign of more things to come.”
S.African rhino farm, world's largest, bought by NGO

Johannesburg (AFP) – The largest rhino farm in the world, which is home to 2,000 animals and located in South Africa, has been bought by the NGO African Parks, the organisation said Monday.

Issued on: 04/09/2023
South Africa is home to o nearly 80 percent of the world's rhinoceroses 
© Luca Sola / AFP/File

Home to nearly 80 percent of the world's rhinoceroses, South Africa is a poaching hotspot, driven by demand from Asia, where horns are used in traditional medicine for their supposed therapeutic effect.

The government said 448 of the rare animals were killed across the country last year, only three fewer than in 2021 despite increased protection at national parks such as the renowned Kruger.

"African Parks has stepped in as the new owner of the world's largest private captive rhino breeding operation," the conservation NGO said in the statement.

The NGO will take over the 7,800 hectare "Platinum Rhino" site in the North West province, which it says currently is home to 15 percent of the world's remaining wild population of southern white rhino.

The rhino farm was previously owned by 81-year-old South African conservationist John Hume, who auctioned the property earlier this year.

Although he said he was looking for a "billionaire" to take it over, African Parks said that no offers were received, leaving the rhinos at "serious risk of poaching".

The NGO said it received support from the South Africa government.

Peter Fearnhead, CEO of African Parks, said the NGO had "no intention of being the owner of a captive rhino breeding operation with 2,000 rhino."

"However, we fully recognise the moral imperative of finding a solution for these animals so that they can once again play their integral role in fully functioning ecosystems,” he added, describing the scale of the operation as "simply enormous, and therefore daunting".

"However, it is equally one of the most exciting and globally strategic conservation opportunities," he said in the press statement.

African Parks, which manages 22 protected areas across the continent, says it plans to phase out the breeding programme and return the 2,000 southern white rhino to the wild over the next 10 years.

Security and surveillance


The species was hunted to near extinction in the late 19th century but gradually recovered thanks to decades of protection and breeding efforts.

Hume told AFP in an interview before the sale that through the years he had lavished around $150 million on his massive philanthropic project to save the world's second largest land mammal.

Security and surveillance was the farm's biggest cost, the former businessman said.

"I've used all my life savings spending on that population of rhinos for 30 years. And I finally ran out of money," he told AFP in April.

Miles of fences, cameras, heat detectors and an army of rangers patrol the site, which employs about 100 people.

The full extent of the security measures taken and the number of armed rangers on guard are kept secret.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) said the move was a "lifeline thrown to a near-threatened species".

Poachers have increasingly targeted privately-owned reserves in their hunt for horns, which consist mainly of hard keratin, the same substance found in human nails.

They are highly sought after on black markets, where the price per weight rivals that of gold and cocaine at an estimated $60,000 per kilogramme.

Much of the demand for the horns comes from Asia, where they are used in traditional medicine for their supposed therapeutic effect.
Hong Kong's top court to rule on same-sex marriage

Hong Kong (AFP) – Hong Kong's top court will decide Tuesday whether to recognise same-sex marriages, rendering a verdict in one of the most consequential cases on the subject in the city's history.


Issued on: 05/09/2023 -
Hong Kong's top court will decide on Tuesday if the city will recognise same-sex marriages © Philip FONG / AFP

Over the past decade, LGBTQ activists in the former British colony have won piecemeal victories in court, striking down discriminatory government policies on visas, taxes and housing benefits.

But the case brought by jailed pro-democracy activist Jimmy Sham -- set to be decided at 2:30 pm local time (0630 GMT) Tuesday -- will be the first time Hong Kong's Court of Final Appeal has directly addressed the issue of same-sex marriage.

Since launching his challenge in 2018, Sham, 36, has twice failed to convince the courts that Hong Kong should legally recognise his marriage to a same-sex partner, which was registered in New York nearly a decade ago.

In his most recent setback, in August 2022, appeal judges wrote that Hong Kong's constitutional text "only provides access to the institution of marriage to heterosexual couples".

Sham has argued the city's ban on same-sex marriage violates his right to equality, while the lack of a policy alternative -- such as civil unions -- does the same, in addition to breaching his right to privacy.

British rights lawyer Karon Monaghan, representing Sham, told the court in June the ban disadvantages same-sex couples in areas such as inheritance and housing rentals.

A poll this year found that 60 percent of Hong Kongers supported same-sex marriage, compared to just 38 percent a decade ago.

Some international businesses in the city have also backed marriage equality campaigns, crediting it as a way to attract talent.

But the city's Beijing-approved leadership has shown little appetite for passing laws that advance LGBTQ equality.

Rights advocacy has partly gone underground after Beijing imposed a national security law on Hong Kong in 2020, following huge and sometimes violent pro-democracy protests in the finance hub.

Sham, a prominent democracy campaigner, is one of dozens of activists behind bars awaiting prosecution under the security law on charges unrelated to LGBTQ rights.

In July, a radio show promoting gay rights aired by Hong Kong's public broadcaster was cancelled after a 17-year run.





 PAKISTAN


Still Beleaguered 

Has the recent Budget brought little cheer to an auto industry in crisis?
UPDATED 29 AUG, 2023 

The ongoing ordeal of Pakistan’s automobile industry is no secret, and the unfolding story is little short of a tragedy for an industry that only until recently was endorsed as being among the leaders of Pakistan’s economic resurgence. 

A growing, young population and a rising middle class with increasing disposable income had provided a welcome boost in the demand for cars. The successful implementation of the five-year Automobile Policy and the focus on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) had also promised to create avenues for collaboration with Chinese automakers, bringing advanced technologies and investment to the country. Once dominated by a handful of manufacturers, the sector had seen a surge in investments from new players, a boost in local production and advancements in technology. Pakistan, the 15th largest automobile manufacturer-assembler in the world, was poised to rise even higher and very quickly. 

Yet, the promise has effectively fallen flat. In the last year-and-a-half, political upheaval and economic instability have resulted in rampant inflation, a heavily depreciated rupee, stringent import restrictions, production shutdowns and a crash in demand. 

What Went Wrong?

The dollar ran amok against the Pakistani rupee; the greenback an endangered species fast vanishing from State Bank coffers as well as the open market. As a result, the government clamped down on imports to save what little dollar deposits were left (at an estimate as little as under one billion dollars). With thousands of tonnes of imports stranded at Karachi ports, local industrial production had little to run on, resulting in most of the major auto assemblers shutting down their plants for extended periods of time. Figures by the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA) paint a sad picture. Production declined by nearly 55% in FY 2022-23, with only 101,984 units produced compared to 226,433 assembled in FY 2021-22. 

The depreciation of the Pakistani Rupee, which crossed Rs 300 to a dollar at one stage, resulted in astronomically high prices for all vehicles – from passenger cars to trucks and motorcycles, inevitably leading to stagnant demand. Making matters worse, further economic tremors discouraged new local and foreign investment. The inflation that ran wild nearly barricaded all classes (save the elite) from any type of car purchase. The current mark-up rates of 23% have been the highest ever in Pakistan’s financial history, and reflect the gravity of the economic situation. Not surprisingly, passenger car sales have taken a severe thrashing. In FY 2022-23, only 126,879 units were sold, compared to 279,267 units that were sold in FY 2021-22 – a decline of nearly 60%.

The Budget.

 The industry, therefore, hoped to see some light at the end of the tunnel in the budget announcement, albeit without holding out much hope. Industry worries hovered around a raft of possible taxation jack-ups across the usual suspects – advance income tax, capital value tax, customs duty on new cars and withholding tax based on the invoice price.  

Fortunately, when the budget was finally rolled out, none of these salvoes were fired, at least not on the surface. But it was not good news for cars with engine capacities of 2000cc and above. The new policy indicated that a fixed tax of six percent will be imposed on the value of vehicles with engine capacities from 2001cc to 2500cc. Vehicles with engine capacities from 2501cc to 3000cc will be taxed at eight percent of their value. Cars with engine power exceeding 3000cc will be subject to a 10% tax based on their value. 

It is interesting to note the way the value of the cars will be ascertained. The Customs Department will be tasked to evaluate the authentic import value of such cars, which will then be used to calculate the applicable customs duty, federal excise duty (FED) and sales tax. For completely built-up (CBU) and locally assembled cars, with engine capacities above 2001cc, the total invoice value (inclusive of all taxes and duties) will be used to impose the fixed tax regime for all three categories of passenger cars respectively. This step has effectively increased the price of passenger cars in these categories from Rs 300,000 to Rs 1.7 million at a single stroke and is already reflected in passenger car prices in July 2023.

Moreover, a flat 35% customs duty has been imposed on the import of specified car components. In this respect, industry commentators believe that they should have been adapted across different parts, given their critical nature and importance in the overall functioning of the vehicle. By adopting a flat rate for parts as varied as bumpers, spare tyres, suspension and brake components, protective strips, and luggage compartments, the government is stonewalling assemblers already struggling to keep their costs of production down. 

Despite the prevailing doomsday scenario, the elite class is apparently unaffected. In the month of June 2023 alone, 1,159 cars worth $20 million were imported. This is primarily because of a suspected recent change in the policy, which now apparently allows such imports based on the assessed value of the vehicles (opening the door for ‘under-invoicing’ practices) and not on the engine capacity as was the case earlier. This will mean more imports in the coming months. Such double standards built into a policy are suicidal and hardly beneficial for the industry in general.

Silver Lining.

Perhaps the only policy positive in the budget is permitting the import of fully assembled hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) at a one percent duty rate. Similarly, the import of HEV components will be allowed at a four percent duty rate, provided they meet certification and import quota requirements. Another bit of happy news is that Pakistan is making small dents in the export market for parts, with Toyota Pakistan signing a memorandum with Toyota Egypt to export locally-made parts. 

What next?

Although no new taxes were levied on regular car categories, the budget has not given any policy direction on the critical issue of importing completely knocked down (CKD) kits without permission from the State Bank of Pakistan. This dilly-dallying over the last one year has been one of the main reasons why auto manufacturers are continuing to shut down their plants, triggering unemployment, disinvestment and plummeting revenues, both for the industry and the government. Industry analysts believe that the federal government has not taken any steps to address the issues of the core automobile industry and given the IMF conditionalities, the unfortunate assessment is that the industry will remain stagnant for many more months to come.

Mazhar M. Chinoy has led the marketing services function for a leading multinational automobile company and is currently a director at LUMS.
mm_chinoy@hotmail.com