Home prices in Canada are so stretched that even owners want them to fall

Laura Dhillon Kane, Bloomberg News

Most Canadians are prepared to see home values fall, according to a new poll, suggesting some homeowners are willing to give up a bit of their own wealth to improve affordability for others.

Some 70 per cent of respondents said they would be happy (40 per cent) or somewhat happy (30 per cent) to see home prices go down, says the poll conducted by Nanos Research for Bloomberg News. 

When asked about solutions to the high cost of shelter, Canadians’ preferred option is to build more homes, faster — including government-subsidized ones. But 12 per cent said the best answer is to curb immigration. 

“The survey suggests that Canadians believe that real estate is overpriced and a majority would not have an issue if housing prices went down,” said chief pollster Nik Nanos. Given that about two-thirds of Canadian households own their home, the findings appear to contradict the wisdom that homeowners only want to see prices rise. 

Housing costs have become a major social issue and a political problem for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as apartment rents surge and elevated mortgage rates put buying a home out of reach for many younger Canadians. Sean Fraser, the new housing minister, has said he wants to improve affordability without pushing down prices, though it’s not clear how the government would achieve this balancing act.

Trudeau, who’s set to huddle with Liberal members of parliament this week in London, Ontario, is under mounting pressure to outline a strategy to ease the cost of living. 

The benchmark home price in Canada has more than doubled over the past decade to $755,000 and has become increasingly detached from earnings. In Toronto and Vancouver, mortgage payments on the median home consume the vast majority of household income, according to economists at National Bank of Canada. 

Across 10 large cities, mortgage payments eat up about 59 per cent of household earnings, the bank said. The calculation is based on payments for mortgages that are amortized over 25 years; many Canadians now have longer loans to reduce their monthly cash outflow. 

Building more housing was the most popular solution for Nanos poll respondents, with 23 per cent selecting it as the No. 1 way to reduce shelter costs. About 22 per cent called for more government-subsidized housing, and 21 per cent said the top priority should be lowering mortgage rates.

Fewer Canadians favor policies to discourage people from buying second homes. And almost no one supports eliminating the capital-gains tax exemption on the sale of a primary residence — only 1.5 per cent said that would be the best way to improve affordability.

The poll surveyed 1,044 Canadians by phone and online between Sept. 2 and Sept. 4. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 

Trans Mountain sale to start with federal meeting next week

Robert Tuttle, Bloomberg News

Canada’s federal government plans to kick off the sale of a stake in the Trans Mountain pipeline by meeting with indigenous communities as early as next week in Vancouver, according to two people familiar with the plan.

The government will be meeting with members of some of the roughly 130 indigenous groups that have shown interest in a partial ownership stake, one of the people said. The planned gathering follows the issuance of a letter to indigenous communities saying the government intends to sell a stake in Trans Mountain to individual indigenous communities through a special-purpose vehicle, allowing the government to balance competing groups’ requests to own a piece of the project.  

The Canadian finance ministry declined to comment.

The pipeline, which will roughly triple the volume of Alberta crude that can be sent to the Vancouver area to 890,000 barrels a day, is opposed by many British Columbia indigenous communities who fear it will threaten their traditional lands and sully waterways and land.

The government bought the pipeline from Kinder Morgan Inc. in 2018 to keep alive a planned expansion that the company was threatening to cancel amid fierce opposition. The expansion is scheduled to start operation next year after years of delays and the ballooning of project costs to almost $31 billion (US$23 billion).

 CANADA

Unifor's tentative deal with Ford likely to include 'significant' wage gains: expert

The Canadian Press

The union representing workers at Ford Motor Co. facilities in Canada says its tentative deal with the company includes "transformative" gains, with one observer suggesting significant wage increases are likely.

Unifor and Ford reached a preliminary contract agreement late Tuesday night after extending a previous strike deadline by 24 hours.

“We believe that this tentative agreement, endorsed by the entire master bargaining committee, addresses all of the items raised by members in preparation for this round of collective bargaining,” Unifor national president Lana Payne said in a news release.

The three-year tentative deal covers more than 5,600 workers at Canadian Ford facilities. It includes members at Ford’s Oakville assembly plant, Annex and Essex engine plants in Windsor, Ont., along with its parts distribution centres in Brampton, Paris and Casselman in Ontario and in Leduc, Alta.

Key union leaders including Payne sent a message to union members touting the tentative agreement. "This painstaking work has resulted in fundamental, transformative gains that addressed our core priorities of pensions, wages and the EV transition," it reads.

Steven Tufts, an associate professor at York University, said he believes Payne wouldn't risk recommending an agreement unless Ford made a substantive offer. 

"I think the wage increases are going to be significant in that deal," he said. "Payne probably made some inroads on the investments in EV transition ... and would be able to announce guaranteed investments for the transition to electric vehicles."

Tufts said the things to watch now are whether union rank-and-file will ratify the deal at a time when union workers have high expectations for bargaining gains and, crucially, if Payne can repeat any successes from the tentative agreement at GM and Stellantis.

Along with higher wages, the union had said the transition to electric vehicles and pensions and job security were key areas of focus during the bargaining process.

The formal negotiations between Unifor and the Detroit Three opened on Aug. 10 in Toronto — coming at a time when the rising cost of living and inflationary pressures continue to hamper financial security among Canadians.

The union then named Ford as its target for bargaining on Aug. 29, focusing on negotiations with that company to create a blueprint agreement to be used in talks with workers at General Motors and Stellantis.

The tentative agreement must still be ratified by union members.

“In addition to reaching a master agreement, our members at each Ford location face their own unique set of issues that needed to be resolved by our committees at the bargaining table,” Unifor Ford master bargaining chair John D’Agnolo said in a statement.

“This agreement makes the kind of gains our members need today and adds greater financial security for the future.”

The last round of Detroit Three contract negotiations in 2020 led to billions of dollars of investment commitments from the automakers. Unifor has said increased momentum on the transition to electric vehicles has brought total promised spending across all of Canada's auto sector to around $25 billion in the past three years.

Dennis Darby of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters welcomed the tentative agreement between Unifor and Ford. 

"If it is accepted by workers, it will allow the Canadian automotive sector, but also the manufacturing sector more generally, to maintain their activities," he said in an emailed statement. 

He said the current strike in the United States is having a significant effect on manufacturers, creating another headwind for an already slowing Canadian economy.

The tentative deal with Ford comes as U.S. autoworkers continue to strike against Ford as well as at General Motors and Stellantis plants.

South of the border, the United Auto Workers union entered the sixth day of the strike, with its union president Shawn Fain announcing a new strike deadline due on Friday. Fain has threatened to expand the strike across other plants if the Detroit Three doesn't make significant progress.

Tufts speculates that Ford came to an agreement with Unifor with a strategic goal of not having a strike in Canada, while lowering expectations on the deal in the U.S. 

"Ford may have been incentivized to get a deal done without a strike in Canada as a means of dialing down the overall North American conflict," Tufts said. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2023.

Canada showcases tragic wildfire season to promote carbon pricing initiative at UN

James McCarten, The Canadian Press

The federal government is hoping Canada's devastating wildfire season sparks momentum for carbon pricing at the United Nations. 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was the big draw at a UN event Wednesday aimed at encouraging countries to put a price on pollution. 

But two of the heroes from a fearsome summer of wildfires ended up stealing the show. 

West Kelowna fire Chief Jason Brolund's harrowing story of a 36-hour battle to keep the flames out of his B.C. city earned a partial standing ovation. 

And assistant Halifax fire Chief Sherry Dean described how some of her crew members pulled people to safety as their homes went up in flames. 

Trudeau used the moment to promote carbon pricing as a way for the leaders of UN member countries to stand by their first responders. 

It was "36 hours that felt like 100 years," Brolund said as he described his marathon shift in mid-August fighting the blazes that were threatening his community in the B.C. Interior. 

A fellow B.C. fire chief, Darren Lee, "said during this fire that firefighters have been warriors for thousands of years, stepping up to protect their villages," Brolund said. 

"But today, these warriors are doing things that we never imagined, on a scope and scale it's nearly impossible for us to be successful against." 

The money that went into that herculean firefighting effort — about $20 million, by Brolund's account — is being spent "on the wrong end of the problem," he said.

"What could we have accomplished if we use that same amount of money proactively?" 

The event, a late-day gathering after a busy day at UN headquarters, took place in a pop-up nature sanctuary on the campus, designed to showcase the body's effort to kick-start sustainable development. 

Birdsong chirped over the loudspeakers as guests entered a makeshift boreal paradise, complete with leafy plant life, man-made mist and a high-definition greenspace backdrop, swaying in an invisible breeze. 

Dean described how two firefighters requested a pickup truck — the conditions were too harsh for a fire engine — so they could go door-to-door ensuring residents were out of harm's way. 

"They went into homes that were burning and grabbed a gentleman out of his home as the home itself was engulfed in flames," she said.

"If it were not for the heroic efforts of those men, that life would have been lost."

Trudeau hailed their efforts and that of their respective departments, and also acknowledged the deaths of four firefighters who died in a head-on crash early Tuesday in northern B.C.

"First responders on the front lines understand that ambitious collective action to tackle climate change is now a matter of survival," he said. 

"Climate action can be hard, but as leaders, you're here today because you know that it matters and that it works."

Putting a price on carbon has been central in helping Canada "bend the curve," he said, touting the country's emissions-reduction record as the best in the G7. 

He said Canada's Global Carbon Pricing Challenge, which encourages countries to adopt similar mechanisms, is gaining steam, with Norway, Denmark, Vietnam and Côte d'Ivoire coming aboard. 

Climate has been a dominant theme of the UN General Assembly so far this year, along with the grinding war in Ukraine and its global reverberations. 

Today, Trudeau will focus on a different geopolitical crisis, this one in Haiti, where stable government is non-existent, gang violence is rampant and cholera stalks the citizenry. 

He'll sit down with Haitian officials and preside over an ad hoc advisory group moderated by Bob Rae, Canada's ambassador to the United Nations, before a closing news conference.  

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 21, 2023. 

Financial uncertainty new normal for many Canadians, RBC survey shows

The Canadian Press

A new RBC survey suggests financial uncertainty has become the new normal for many Canadians as inflation eats into their savings and hampers their future financial security.

The rising cost of living tops Canadians' list of worries, according to the poll, with 77 per cent of respondents saying they are not able to save as much as they would like to and roughly half saying they've never been more stressed about money.

Craig Bannon, director of regional financial planning support at RBC, says more than one-third of Canadians don't have an emergency fund, further weakening their financial flexibility.

The RBC poll also found that Canadians are worried about a potential recession, with the majority saying it would be tougher on everyone to weather an economic downturn today than it was in 2008. 

If inflationary pressures continue into 2024, the poll finds 72 per cent of respondents with debt are worried about taking on more debt while 21 per cent said they might have to come out of retirement.

The survey, commissioned by RBC, polled 1,508 Canadian adults online between June 20 and 23. The poll cannot be assigned a margin of error because online surveys are not considered truly random samples.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2023.

STFU
Conservative MPs told not to talk to media, post about 'parental rights' protests

ANTI LGBTQ HUMAN RIGHTS 

Story by The Canadian Press •

Conservative MPs told not to talk to media, post about 'parental rights' protests© Provided by The Canadian Press

OTTAWA — Conservative MPs were told not to post online or talk to media about competing protests on Parliament Hill that saw protesters clashing over how schools should handle LGBTQ+ issues.

The Canadian Press obtained a copy of the message sent to members of Pierre Poilievre's caucus, which warned them not to speak publicly about the issue and provided talking points they could use to communicate with their constituents.

It is common for the Opposition leader's office to issue suggested talking points on prominent issues, as it has done on topics that Conservative MPs frequently speak to reporters about, such as bail reform and inflation.

Poilievre's office has not provided a response to a request for comment, including on the explicit direction that MPs not speak to media on this particular issue.

The memo about protests organized all over Canada says protesters have "legitimate points to make" about the issue of what it describes as "parental rights."

Thousands of people gathered in cities across the country for competing protests, yelling and chanting at each other about the way schools instruct sexuality and gender identity and how teachers refer to transgender youth.

The debate that protesters and counter-protesters brought to Canadian streets on Wednesday has gained increasing traction in recent months because of new policies in two provinces.

Both New Brunswick and Saskatchewan introduced education policies that make it a rule for schools to obtain a parent's consent if a student under 16 wants to be called by a different name or pronoun.

Both of those policies have now become the subject of legal challenges.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe has said he is prepared to use the notwithstanding clause to keep the policy in place in the face of concerns from critics, LGBTQ+ advocates and his province's child advocate, who argue that it discriminates against the rights of transgender and non-binary students.

For his part, Poilievre has only waded into the issue when asked about it.

After Prime Minister Justin Trudeau denounced the New Brunswick policy this summer, Poilievre told reporters in the province that Trudeau should stay out of the provincial government's business and "let parents raise kids."

Poilievre's office pointed to that remark in Wednesday's message as one that MPs can repeat "to communicate with constituents on the issue of parental rights."

It also pointed to a statement Poilievre made to an ethnic media broadcaster ahead of Wednesday's demonstrations, in which he said he it was his view "that parents should be the final authority on the values and lessons that should be taught to children."

The preamble to the suggested talking points said protesters "enjoy the freedom of assembly and expression" to make the points they are raising, and that all MPs would be attending party caucus meetings Wednesday.

The note began with bolded text: "This messaging is for reactive use only. Please do not talk to media or post on social media about this issue."

The Canadian Press did not observe any caucus members attending the demonstrations in front of Parliament Hill.

In response to the protests, Trudeau tweeted on Wednesday that "transphobia, homophobia and biphobia have no place in this country," and that he stands in support of the LGBTQ+ community.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was also observed attending a counter-protest in Ottawa.

Since becoming leader, Poilievre has tried steering the party to be laser-focused on issues around affordability and housing prices.

Successive summer polls that show the Tories in a healthy lead over the governing Liberals have left supporters buoyed and confident he is on the right track to return the Conservatives to power after spending eight years out of government.

But party delegates at this month's policy convention in Quebec City also made it clear they want the party to pronounce on cultural issues, not just economic ones.

Party members voted in favour of inking a new provision into its policy handbook stating it believes that women are entitled to "single-sex spaces" and that a future Conservative government should ban medicinal and surgical interventions for minors experiencing gender dysphoria.

Neither Poilievre nor his office have commented on what he intends to do with these new policies, which are not binding.

Like Conservative leaders before him, Poilievre said going into the policy convention that he reserves the right not to include policy changes adopted by the party's grassroots.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2023.

Stephanie Taylor, The Canadian Press

FUNDAMENTALISTS AGAINST HUMAN RIGHTS

Protesters arrested on Vancouver Island as groups clash over 'gender ideology' in schools




Todd Coyne
Senior Digital News Producer,

 CTV News Vancouver and CTV News Vancouver Island
Updated Sept. 20, 2023

At least three people were arrested Wednesday as protesters and counter-protesters gathered in Nanaimo and Victoria to argue about the way schools teach sexuality and gender identity, and how teachers refer to transgender students.

A man with a bullhorn, who had been declaring his opposition to children deciding their own gender identities, was chased down and tackled by Nanaimo RCMP officers after getting into a physical altercation outside of Nanaimo's city hall.

A man with a bullhorn, who had been declaring his opposition to children deciding their own gender identities, was chased down and tackled by Nanaimo RCMP officers after getting into a physical altercation outside of Nanaimo's city hall on Sept. 20, 2023. (CTV News)

Nanaimo RCMP spokesperson Const. Gary O'Brien said the man would likely be detained until the demonstrations were over.

Hundreds more demonstrators had gathered at the B.C. legislature in Victoria, where two people were arrested early Wednesday afternoon.

The Victoria Police Department urged residents to avoid the B.C. legislature grounds, saying the area had "become unsafe" as approximately 2,500 people attended the demonstrations amid "escalating tensions."

The Vancouver Island rallies were among dozens happening across the country as self-declared members of the group 1 Million March 4 Children advocated for the "elimination of the Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity (SOGI) curriculum, pronouns, gender ideology and mixed bathrooms in schools," according to the group's website.

Counter-demonstrators, meanwhile, accused protesters of importing American culture wars into the country and trying to deny students important lessons about inclusion and respect for gender-diverse people.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tweeted about the Canada-wide protests, saying, "Transphobia, homophobia, and biphobia have no place in this country. We strongly condemn this hate and its manifestations, and we stand united in support of 2SLGBTQI+ Canadians across the country – you are valid and you are valued."

Clint Johnston, the president of the B.C. Teachers' Federation, wrote a letter to B.C. Premier David Eby about the union's concerns about the planned protests.

He said they're part of a co-ordinated attack against the transgender and LGBTQ communities.

A man with a bullhorn, who had been declaring his opposition to children deciding their own gender identities, was chased down and tackled by Nanaimo RCMP officers after getting into a physical altercation outside of Nanaimo's city hall on Sept. 20, 2023. (CTV News)

"These rallies are part of a movement across North America that uses 'parental consent' as a dog whistle for rising homophobia and transphobia. This movement is concerning and must be stopped," he said in the letter.

In response to Johnston's letter, the premier said school must be a place where every student feels secure and it's upsetting to see misinformation and disinformation used to attack vulnerable children and youth.

"Without hesitation, I denounce threats, hate and violence against 2SLGBTQIA+ communities. We are seeing a concerning rise in incidents where trans people are being targeted with threats and violence in person and online," Eby said in the statement.

"We cannot and must not stand idly by in the face of any kind of bullying. Any political leader who targets our most vulnerable, at-risk children and youth is no leader at all."

The Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs also expressed support for the counter-protesters Wednesday, saying in a statement that it stands with those who "reject hate and discrimination to defend the rights of our 2-spirit, trans and non-binary family and friends."



Hundreds of demonstrators gathered at the B.C. legislature in Victoria, where one person was arrested early Wednesday afternoon. (CTV News)

RELATED STORIES

Anti-LGBTQ rallies will be met with counter protests in Victoria, across Canada
B.C. Parent Advisory Councils voice support for SOGI in face of protests
B.C. youth representative calls for better government care of gender-diverse youth
'Hate-motivated incidents' that emerged in response to drag story time in Nelson, B.C., under investigation: police

ACROSS CANADA 

SEE

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2023/09/alberta-federation-of-labour-statement.html

With election day nearing, latest polling shows NDP surging ahead in Manitoba


Devon McKendrick
CTVNewsWinnipeg.ca 

Digital Editorial Producer
Published Sept. 20, 2023 4

Manitoba's NDP is on the rise according to new polling numbers released Wednesday.

A Probe Research poll, commissioned by CTV News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press, shows almost half of decided and leaning voters will support the NDP on election day.

In June, both the NDP and Progressive Conservatives were deadlocked with 41 per cent support. But since then, the PCs dropped to 38 per cent, while the NDP gained ground at 49 per cent. Meanwhile, the Manitoba Liberals are at nine per cent.

Across the province, 11 per cent of people asked say they are undecided.

A graph showing the NDP is surging ahead of the PCs in latest tracking numbers from Probe Research, commissioned by CTV News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press.

 (Source: Probe Research. Sept. 20, 2023)

Scott MacKay with Probe Research said the data is pointing to a majority government for the NDP on Oct. 3.

"It really does look that way, especially with the strength in the city," said MacKay.

Those numbers in Winnipeg show the NDP has a massive lead over the incumbent PCs with 57 per cent, compared to 28 per cent. The Liberals have higher results in Winnipeg topping out at 11 per cent.

"The NDP have almost historically high, almost 30 points, between them and the Conservatives. So it's looking like this will be a victory for the NDP and it looks like a majority to me."

A further breakdown highlights the NDP is leading in every single quadrant of the city. The closest race is in the northwest, the NDP has a slight lead at 45 per cent, while the Tories sit at 42 per cent and the Liberals actually have less support than the Green Party – five per cent and six per cent respectively.

A graph highlighting the support for each provincial party in Winnipeg. The NDP have a wide lead over the Conservatives. The data comes from Probe Research in a commissioned report by CTV News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press. (Source: Probe Research. Sept. 20, 2023)

The largest difference in Winnipeg is the city's core with the NDP receiving an overwhelming 68 per cent support. The PCs and Liberals are neck-and-neck for second place – the Conservatives at 15 per cent and the Liberals at 13 per cent.

The northeast is a 60-30 split in favour of the NDP with the Liberals at five per cent.

Both quadrants in south Winnipeg have the NDP sitting at 55 per cent, while the PCs are at 24 per cent in the west and 30 per cent in the east. The Liberals are at 18 per cent in the west and 14 in the east.

MacKay said south Winnipeg was classified as an important area even before the election was called.

"They were seats that were known to be switchable. They were ones that the NDP had held even fairly recently. So I think all eyes were on those regions and today, we see NDP strength in those regions."


Nine per cent of Winnipeggers polled say they are undecided on who they will support.

Data from a Probe Research poll, commissioned by CTV News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press, showing support for provincial parties in southwest Winnipeg. (Source: Probe Research. Sept. 20, 2023)

Data from a Probe Research poll, commissioned by CTV News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press, showing support for provincial parties in southeast Winnipeg. 

(Source: Probe Research. Sept. 20, 2023)

Comparing votes from 2019 could help explain why the NDP are seeing more support.

People were asked who they voted for in 2019 and what they plan to do in this election. Half of people who voted Liberal last election said they will now support the NDP. Another 16 per cent who voted Conservative plan to flip their vote for the NDP.

"The Liberals are an important part of this puzzle of the election because we have them at historically low levels," said MacKay. "I think that this sort of collapse, and I think that's not even too strong a word, of the Liberals, it's really what's helping to deliver this to the NDP."

SUPPORT FOR PARTY LEADERS

As part of the polling, Manitobans were asked if they approve of each party leader's job performance.

The NDP's Wab Kinew is perceived as doing the best job with a 51 per cent approval rating, followed by Liberal Dougal Lamont at 38 per cent.

The PC's Heather Stefanson sits third at 32 per cent. She also has the highest disapproval rating with 48 per cent of Manitobans polled saying they strongly disapprove of her job performance.

A graph showing job performance approval rating based on the results of a Probe Research poll that was commissioned by CTV News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press. (Source: Probe Research. Sept. 20, 2023)

"She is not a popular leader, and in fact, there's a level of intensity of dislike for Ms. Stefanson that we just don't see with Wab Kinew," MacKay said. "Wab Kinew is the only candidate who really has a positive view of the public. People are more inclined to like him than dislike him and that's not the case for Stefanson."

Kinew was next at 27 per cent strongly disapproved and Lamont was at 20 per cent.

Polled residents also have a better impression of Kinew compared to Stefanson, with the NDP leader going up five points, while Stefanson has dropped 23 points with 38 per cent of people saying they view her either somewhat worse or much worse.

Lamont was able to gain one point but 71 per cent of respondents say they still have the same view of Lamont as before.

VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS

With the NDP receiving more support both in the province and in Winnipeg according to the poll, it isn't a surprise the party also leads in most demographic breakdowns.

The NDP is polling higher with women than men, 59 per cent compared to 38 per cent, while the Conservatives have the lead with men at 47 per cent, but lag with women at 29 per cent.

Each age group has significant support for the NDP; however, it’s the PCs that have the slight lead in the 55-plus category – 44 per cent compared to 43 per cent for the NDP. The Liberals also have their highest support in the 55-plus crowd with 11 per cent.

MacKay said the older population is the one positive the Conservatives can rely on.

"That is a very reliable constituency of voters. So it's possible that they are actually going to hold this vote, such as it is, and that some of the NDP support, which is among younger voters are not actually going to vote. So that is something that they will be thinking about."

Data from a Probe Research poll, commissioned by CTV News Winnipeg and the Winnipeg Free Press, showing support for provincial parties in Winnipeg. (Source: Probe Research. Sept. 20, 2023)

It doesn't matter what income bracket Manitobans fall under either, as the NDP hovers around the 50 per cent mark for all three categories, while the PCs range from 31 to 38 per cent support.

University graduates also prefer the NDP compared to the Conservatives with a 62-27 per cent split.

However, those who went to college or any other post-secondary, prefer the PCs at 44 per cent, slightly more than the NDP at 42 per cent. High school education or less also favours the Conservatives over the NDP.

The Liberals sit under the 10 per cent mark in all categories.

Lastly, those who identify as Indigenous or BIPOC are strongly in favour of the NDP.

MacKay wants to remind people that these numbers are not final and situations could change between now and when people head to the polls.

"There is still time, there's going to be significant events, including the debate tomorrow…those can be a turning point. So, it's not over until it's over and there's two weeks left. Who knows what people might have up their sleeve? But this is a good snapshot of where we're at, at this late point of the campaign."

In an emailed statement to CTV News, an NDP spokesperson said, "Since this campaign began, Wab Kinew has been saying that Manitoba needs a change in Government so we can repair our health-care system. This poll suggests a growing number of Manitobans agree. We have been working to earn a mandate from the people of Manitoba and will continue to work hard until election day."

Marni Larkin, the PC campaign manager, said these numbers aren't concerning for the party.

"I have to say I'm a little bit surprised by them because it's certainly not what we're seeing at the door," she said. "I just need to think about the seats I need to win and I feel really confident in those seats. We're just going to keep our head down and get it done."

CTV News Winnipeg did reach out to the Manitoba Liberals and is awaiting a response.

The Probe polling took place between Sept. 7 and 18, 2023. Researchers talked to 1,000 people throughout the province during that time and said with 95 per cent certainty that the margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points.

In this composite image made from three photographs, from left to right, Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba Leader Heather Stefanson speaks during a news conference in Whistler, B.C., Tuesday, June 27, 2023; Manitoba NDP Leader Wab Kinew speaks at the Canadian Mennonite University in Winnipeg, Wednesday, Aug. 16, 2023; and Manitoba Liberal Party Leader Dougald Lamont speaks to the media at the Legislature building, in Winnipeg, Tuesday, March 7, 2023. 

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck, John Woods, David Lipnowski

 

Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign

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Conservatives viewed as best on economy, NDP on health; NDP viewed as best to form government

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September 20, 2023 – Halfway through Manitoba’s provincial election campaign, Manitobans will have a chance to see three party leaders square off in a televised leadership debate Thursday.

As the leaders make their final debate preparations, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Manitoba NDP holding a six-point advantage over the incumbent Progressive Conservative party, as the two frontrunners for the province’s top job attempt to sway voters over the two defining issues of the campaign – the economy and health care.

Indeed, both of those issues stand out as top priorities across the province and across the political spectrum. For the NDP and leader Wab Kinew, health care appears to be a strength. Two-in-five (40%) Manitoba residents say his party is best to lead the province in this area. That said, when it comes to economic issues, Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservatives hold a key advantage. Notably, on both health care and the economy a significant portion of the province say they are not yet sure who is best to steward, suggesting hearts and minds are still to be won on the campaign trail.

The NDP appear to have the upper hand when it comes to leadership. Kinew holds a 17-point advantage in favourability over Stefanson. Further, in the first two weeks of the campaign, Stefanson has significant negative momentum in the eyes of residents (31% say opinions have worsened, 11% opinions have improved), while Kinew has tread water (21% worsened, 23% improved).

Winnipeg represents a stronghold of support for the NDP. In the province’s major urban centre, more than half (53%) say they will vote for their local NDP candidate, compared to the three-in-ten (31%) who support the Manitoba PCs. That said, outside of Winnipeg, the Conservatives hold a 15-point advantage.

More Key Findings:

• The NDP holds a 22-point lead over the Progressive Conservative Party in Winnipeg (53% to 31%), while the PCs hold a significant lead in the rest of the province, 53 per cent to 38 per cent.

• One-in-three prefer Kinew (34%) on the question of which leader would make the best premier. One-quarter choose Stefanson (23%), while fully one-in-five Manitobans say none of the options would make a good premier (21%). Notably, just half (50%) of 2019 PC voters say Stefanson would make the best premier.

• The NDP are chosen as the best party to lead on both Indigenous issues (52% NDP – 15% PC) and LGBTQ2+ issues (31% NDP – 17% PC) by a comfortable margin.

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign - Angus Reid Institute

INDEX

Part One: Impressions of leadership

Part Two: Priorities and performance

• Top issues

• PCs viewed as better on economy, NDP on health care

• Best to form government

• Best premier

Part Three: Vote intention

• Age and gender

• The regional divide

• Voter retention

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Canada: legal challenges threaten to derail truck blockade leaders’ trial

Trial initially scheduled to last 16 days facing mounting delays amid challenges over the admission of certain evidence


Leyland Cecco in Toronto

THE GUARDIAN

Wed 20 Sep 2023 20

A shirtless protester participates in a blockade of downtown streets near the parliament building on 16 February 2022 in Ottawa. Photograph: Scott Olson/Getty Images

The trial of two protest leaders who encouraged a truck blockade of Canada’s capital is facing mounting delays as legal arguments threaten to derail the closely watched case.

Early last year, the month-long “Freedom Convoy’” protest paralyzed Ottawa after hundreds of large vehicles blocked key thoroughfares. Initially meant as a challenge to coronavirus public health measures, the protests soon morphed into a broader collection of political grievances against the governing Liberal party.

As the standoff dragged on and inspired copycat blockades in other parts of Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau invoked the Emergences Act, granting the federal government sweeping powers to declare the blockades illegal, tow away trucks and punish the drivers by arresting them, freezing their bank accounts and suspending their licenses.

The leaders Tamara Lich and Chris Barber were arrested in the final days of the protest. The pair, who called on demonstrators to “Hold the line” amid a looming crackdown from police, were charged with mischief, counseling others to commit mischief, intimidation and obstructing police.

The trial began in early September and was initially scheduled to last 16 days. But repeated challenges over the admission of certain evidence and the scope of witness testimony means that timeline will be impossible to meet. So far, only three of the prosecution’s 21 witnesses have completed their testimony. The judge overseeing the case is now considering extending the trial into November.

On Tuesday, Ottawa’s manager of emergency and protective services testified that city officials had braced for a “worst-case scenario” as the truckers approached the national capital. Kim Ayotte, who oversaw bylaw enforcement and fire and paramedic services at the time, visited the protest zone repeatedly and exchanged a series of text messages with Barber as it became clear that many protesters were refusing to leave.

But Ayotte had to vacate the courtroom five times throughout the day while lawyers debated the line of questioning put to him. He was also asked to return to the stand with contemporaneous notes after initially appearing empty-handed.

At the outset of the trial, the prosecution said Barber and Lich “pressured decision-makers” to achieve the political aims, including the end to pandemic health orders.

“This case is not about their political views,” crown prosecutor Tim Radcliffe told the court. “What’s at issue … is the means they employed, not the ends.”

The prosecution has argued that because Barber and Lich worked together, the evidence presented to the court should apply to both defendants.

But for weeks, the defence has debated how wide a net the prosecution can cast in its reliance on social media posts and videos from the Freedom Convoy 2022 Facebook page. They argue much of the evidence is irrelevant if it wasn’t posted directly by Lich or Barber.

On Tuesday, Barber’s lawyer Diane Magas threatened to seek an application to have the charges withdrawn because of the delays. A provision of the Canadian charter requires a defendant be tried in a reasonable amount of time.

“We have an obligation, if there’s going to be an issue, that we raise it at the earliest opportunity so that the Crown can respond appropriately,” Magas told reporters.

Under legal parameters known as the Jordan framework, a delay of greater than 18 months after arrest is “unreasonable”. But it is unclear how this might apply to Lich and Barber’s cases because much of the delay has been the result of challenges lodged by the defence.

 

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