A Royal Navy Nuclear Sub Just Spent 6 Months Underwater. That's Irresponsible.

Sébastien Roblin
Tue, September 26, 2023 

Royal Navy Nuclear Sub Completes 6 Month PatrolRoyal Navy - Wikimedia Commons


On September 11, a Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarine glided back to its port of Clyde Naval Base in a zombie-like state—the sound-dampening anechoic tiles on its hull bleached pale white by barnacles where they weren’t stained sickly green with algae. It was the very image of tired.

That haggard sentiment was likely shared by the sub’s roughly 130-person crew, and for good reason. The craft and its crew are believed to have spent 195 days on patrol, the vast majority of it submerged. Many allege that this sets a record for the longest known patrol by a Royal Navy submarine.

According to website Navy Lookout, however, its sister ship Victorious may have endured a couple weeks longer, completing a 207-day patrol in 2021. The website claims that Vanguard-class patrols are averaging 163 days (5.5 months), up from the previous 3 months average.

The Royal Navy refuses to confirm deployment lengths, per official policy. While the returning sub’s identity is unstated in reports, reportedly, only the Vigilant and Vanguard are operationally available in 2023.


While the sub’s crew can justly take pride in completing this stupendously long mission, that it was deemed necessary is not a good thing. Regular nuclear deterrence patrol by the U.S. Navy’s Ohio-class SSBNs last two or three months, while their record for longest ever SSBN patrol—set by the Gold crew of USS Pennsylvania in 2014—was just over 4 and a half months.

HMS Vengeance enroute to Devonport for a refit in February 2012.Handout - Getty Images

The Royal Navy’s four Vanguard-class subs are nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (or SSBN)—often referred to as ‘boomers’ or ‘bombers’ in U.S. and Royal Navy parlance. While attack submarines prowl across the ocean looking for trouble, a boomer just wants to quietly creep around and be left alone—waiting just in case the call ever comes to end the world as we know it by launching a strategic nuclear missile attack. Hopefully, it never does.

London no longer bothers with land- or air-based nuclear weapons, such as its long retired ‘V-bombers.’ Sea-based nukes are expensive, but hard to preemptively attack—when submerged, they effectively guarantee apocalyptic retribution, even if an adversary executes a successful first strike. For over a half century, the Royal Navy has always had at least one SSBN on patrol at sea, armed with nuclear missiles 365 days a year. The mission is known as Continuous At-Sea Deterrence (CASD).

The prime culprit for the extra-long patrols is the class’s lead ship HMS Vanguard. In 2012, the Royal Navy discovered that the Vanguard’s reactor was leaking radiation into coolant water. This development was revealed to the public in 2014.

Vanguard thus spent seven years being refueled and overhauled to the tune of £500 million. These refurbishments included repairs related to its hair-raising collision with French SSBN Le Triomphant in February of 2009, and replacement of much of the tail section and hydroplane bearings. Vanguard finally departed the shipyard at Devonport in May of 2023.

HMS Vanguard arriving at Naval Base Clyde at Faslane in November 2010.CPOA(Phot) Tam McDonald - Wikimedia Commons

During those years three subs were forced to shoulder the continuous patrols—even though they too inevitably required time for maintenance and repairs. Indeed, the same month that Vanguard took back to the sea, Victorious arrived in Devonport to begin a major refit, following an onboard fire in September of 2022.

These problems stem from the risks of operating such a small SSBN force with little redundancy. Sustaining continuous deployment of SSBNs, with their nuclear reactors and missiles, is so expensive that only four other countries currently do it: France, Russia, the U.S. and now China. And though China has 20 times the UK’s population, it has only six Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs.
The psychic toll of underwater boredom

The Royal Navy insists that it has compensated the crew with “extra payment after an extended period at sea.” But many veteran submariners agree that six months underwater is longer than humans should spend in an isolated and confined environment—especially with virtually no communication with the outside world.

Commenting in 2022, on two Vanguards that performed 157-day-long patrols—former Royal Navy SSBN commander Rob Forsyth—noted in a blog post that the “great danger is that this unchanging routine, week after week, leads to boredom, complacency and an inevitable drop-off in standards […] personal relationships are tested to the limit.”

For comparison, Forsyth states that his Cold War-era patrols lasted only 50-75 days (averaging two months), and were carried out in allegedly less cramped conditions than the Vanguard’s. Even then, he wrote that “major effort was still needed to keep crews stimulated and alert and not allow them to withdraw into themselves […].” Forsyth noted that he himself adopted quirky habits, like tying his scrub brush to a leash and taking it for a walk once a week.

Regarding a 111-day patrol by the Warspite from 1982 to 1983, he wrote that he was “told that operating errors, flare ups between crew members and disciplinary problems started to be a problem after the half-way mark, around 50 days in.” He adds that long patrols led to loss of sight, weight, general fitness and spatial awareness, and that the lack of sunlight lead to Vitamin D deficiencies.

Biscuits and tea for Prime Minister Cameron and crew of Vanguard-class submarine HMS Victorious while at sea off the coast of Scotland on April 4, 2013.AFP - Getty Images

The Telegraph interviewed a former attack submarine commander, Ryan Ramsey, who said that he would “be surprised if there aren’t mental health challenges after this because it’s extreme. The reality is they shouldn’t have to do that. Those boats were designed to go on three-month patrols.”

Breakdowns in discipline in Royal Navy submarines have received periodic media attention in recent years, whether related to harassment and forbidden sexual relationships, the abuse of hard drugs and alcohol, or raucous partying. At one point, in 2017, such scandals culminated in 10% of the Vigiliant’s crew being discharged, investigated, or compelled to resign—including the captain and first officer.

The Ministry of Defence’s unwillingness to discuss the length of nuclear patrols on the basis of operational security has earned the ire of critics who argue that the strain on the crew from lengthy patrols increases the risk of a mishap involving the UK’s nuclear delivery systems.

London's Nuclear Vanguards

A Vanguard-class submarine departs Faslane on September 2009.

JEFF J MITCHELL - Getty Images

The Royal Navy’s four Vanguard-class submarines—Vanguard, Victorious, Vigilant, and Vengeance—were commissioned between 1993 and 1999 at a cost of £3.75 billion per hull. Each measures 150 meters long (one and a half football fields) and displaces 17,500 tons while submerged. Originally built for 25-year service lives, they’ve received life extensions to operate 35-40 instead. Their Rolls-Royce PWR2 pressurized water reactors generate air and sustain propulsion such that the submarine can remain submerged nigh indefinitely—at least as long as there’s food for the crew.


Though Vanguards have four torpedo tubes for self-defense, their primary weapons are stored in their sixteen missile tubes. These Trident II D5 ballistic missiles—the same type used by U.S. Navy boomers—are each capable of releasing multiple independent nuclear warheads. In practice, since 2010, the subs have gone to sea loaded with only 8 missiles stuffed with no more than 40 warheads between them. London’s total stockpile is in flux, however. During the 2010s, it was reduced to roughly 160 warheads, with no more than 120 operationally available. In 2021, the government announced plans to regrow the stockpile to 260 nukes.

The cost and purpose of the UK’s nuclear deterrence force is criticized in left-leaning quarters of British politics. One complication is that all Royal Navy submarines are based at Faslane, Scotland. Should Scotland vote for independence in a referendum, use of Faslane by SSBNs could be denied, as Scottish independence parties oppose the base’s use for nuclear deterrence.

Nicola Sturgeon, former leader of Scottish National Party and First Minister of Scotland attends anti-nuclear arms protest in London (Trident being the name of the missile on Vanguard-class submarine) on February 27, 2016.

Mike Kemp - Getty Images

Political risks aside, the Vanguards should (in theory) be replaced by a succeeding generation of Dreadnaught SSBNs—with planned services lives of fifty years—by the 2030s. The initial phases of construction for the first three Dreadnaughts began in 2016 at BAE Systems’ Barrows-in-Furness shipyard. The Dreadnaughts will be slightly longer than the Vanguards and significantly larger, at 153.6 meters and nearly 19,000 tons displacement submerged.

Many of the Dreadnaught’s reported innovations appear to center on improving quality of life for the crew. That includes separate quarters and bathrooms for male and female crew, new dedicated gym facilities and sick bay, and a lighting system designed to simulate an artificial day/night cycle. That could make a six month patrol more tolerable—even if still not recommended.

Infographic on characteristics of the successor SSBNs posted by Royal Navy in 2016, the year the first steel for lead ship HMS Dreadnaught was cut.

BAe Systems PLC - Wikimedia Commons

 

UK

Fund Managers in ‘Complete Shock’ After Sunak’s Green Pivot

Gautam Naik and Leonard Kehnscherper
Mon, September 25, 2023 a

Fund Managers in ‘Complete Shock’ After Sunak’s Green Pivot

(Bloomberg) -- Some of the world’s biggest green investors are voicing dismay and bewilderment as they struggle to digest the UK government’s stated intention to wind back key climate commitments.

“It was a complete shock,” said Ian Simm, founder and chief executive of London-based Impax Asset Management Group Plc, a low-carbon fund investor overseeing close to $50 billion in assets. Britain’s official policy now represents “a risk for anyone considering an investment in the UK that’s dependent on government policy,” he said.

The watered-down climate goals announced by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak last week would delay the take-up of electric vehicles and the rollout of clean heat for British homes. It’s the latest in a string of similar policy adjustments that include expanding North Sea oil and gas production.

The upshot is the UK, which just a few years ago declared its goal of being a global leader in all things green, is now actively undermining its chances of hitting net zero emissions by mid-century.

For Impax, the takeaway is there’ll now “be fewer developers of projects in the green space,” which means “less deal flow for us,” Simm said in an interview.

The Details:

• Sunak said in a speech last week that he would push back by five years to 2035 a plan to bar the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, casting the decision as an effort to protect families struggling with bills.

• The vast majority of vehicles sold in the UK would likely be electric by 2030 without government intervention, he said.

• Sunak also announced a 50% increase in funding to install heat pumps in homes and said gas boilers in existing homes will be phased out beginning in 2035. They will only need to be replaced once the boiler breaks, he said.

Sunak himself said it’s “absolutely wrong” to characterize his announcement as a watering down of Britain’s climate goals. He said the changes simply represented a “new approach” intended to help place more emphasis on consumer needs.

The UK has made “rapid progress in decarbonizing its economy,” with emissions down about 46% since 1990 and in line with its carbon budgets to date, said Maggie O’Neal, Barclays Plc global head of ESG research.

“However, the recent announcement by the PM has cast doubt on whether the UK will meet future” carbon budgets and other climate commitments, she said in a note on Monday. O’Neal also pointed to a warning from the Climate Change Committee that Sunak’s plan will “likely take the UK further away from being able to meet its legal commitments.”

Green Bonds

The first big test of investor confidence in the UK since Sunak’s comments comes Tuesday, when the government is due to auction £3 billion ($3.7 billion) in green gilts. The debt, which typically attracts specialist ethical funds, was first issued in 2021 and has already raised more than £30 billion.

“I’m not sure how it will affect the demand dynamics,” said Ulf Erlandsson, chief executive officer of the Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute. But he said some investors who bought into the bond at previous auctions are “unlikely” to come back given the government’s policy shift.

They’ll probably “have doubts if this can be considered a green bond anymore,” he said.

Any hint of investor skepticism toward Tuesday’s auction would mark a meaningful setback for the UK after years spent trying to cement its position as a global hub for green finance. Britain was the first major country to publish a green finance strategy, and the first G20 member to require large firms to disclose climate-related risks. And it has a far higher proportion of companies rated as “ESG leaders” than North America or Asia, according to MSCI Inc. data cited by Kroll, a financial and risk advisory firm.

The UK had put green finance at the heart of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow back in 2021. As chancellor at the time, Sunak laid out plans to make Britain “the world’s first net zero aligned financial center.”

That goal may now be beyond reach, according to Silvia Merler, head of ESG and policy research at Algebris Investments.

Becoming a net zero financial center is “intertwined with and dependent on consistent policy action to drive and support the UK’s real economy transition,” she said. The latest rollback “represents a dilution of climate pledges and may potentially challenge the UK’s ambition to position the City of London as a global green financial center.”

There’s also concern that Sunak’s pivot away from a green agenda may give businesses an excuse to water down their own efforts, creating a chain reaction of climate backtracking across the country.

While some large companies have made climate-related financial disclosures, “others haven’t, and the government must encourage them despite the easing of green measures,” wrote Mark Lumsdon-Taylor, ESG partner at MHA, the UK independent member firm of Baker Tilly International.

Some investors had already conveyed their unease to the government before Sunak made his climate U-turn official. In August, when a policy pivot appeared to be on the cards, financial institutions including Jupiter Asset Management Ltd., Scottish Widows Plc, Aegon, and Royal London Asset Management Ltd. wrote to Sunak, saying the signals coming from No. 10 risked eroding trust and “potentially delaying net zero-related investment.”

Last week, hundreds of organizations, including climate nonprofits and investment managers, sent a letter pressuring the government to stick with existing net zero policies. And they underlined the importance of such a commitment in light of record green stimulus being channeled into the economies of the US and EU.

“We are already losing investment to the US and EU,” the letter said. “Rowing back would make it worse.”

And green investors are continuing to step up the pressure. The Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change is actively seeking more signatures to double down on its demands that Sunak reconsider his stance.

His policy change “erodes the UK’s position as a global leader on climate, undermines our international competitiveness, and increases the risk that we fail to capitalize on one of the greatest economic opportunities of the 21st century,” according to the draft of a letter due to be sent to Sunak on Sept. 27.

--With assistance from Greg Ritchie.

 Bloomberg Businessweek

STALINIST STATE

UN worried about Vietnam arrest of energy expert after Biden's visit

Francesco Guarascio
Mon, September 25, 2023

Turk, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, attends the Human Rights Council at the United Nations in Geneva

HANOI (Reuters) - The U.N. human rights office has expressed concern about the arrest of a Vietnamese green energy expert, who had collaborated with U.N. and U.S. agencies, just days after President Joe Biden signed business and human rights deals with Hanoi on a visit.

Hanoi police on Sept. 15 detained Ngo Thi To Nhien, Executive Director of the Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition (VIET), an independent think tank focused on green energy policy, Reuters reported last week citing a charity and a source.

"We are aware of the arrest and are following the developments with concern," Ravina Shamdasani, a spokesperson for the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) told Reuters in a statement.


Nhien had worked for the World Bank, with the United Nations Development Programme and the United States aid agency (USAID), according to her profile on LinkedIn.

She "has participated in international and national events, including consultations organized by UNDP on the topic of energy transition," the UNDP in Vietnam confirmed in an email message to Reuters.

The US embassy in Hanoi has not responded to repeated requests for comment.

Over the last two years Vietnam has arrested five environmental human rights defenders accusing them of tax evasion, a OHCHR spokesperson said in June, noting the arrests happened while the country was negotiating international funding for energy transition away from coal, of which it is a major user.

Nhien kept a very low public profile and was considered an expert, not an activist.

Vietnam's government has not issued any public statement about Nhien's arrest, and did not reply to requests for comment.

On Friday, Vietnam also executed a man, Le Van Manh, who had been sentenced to death in July 2005 after being found guilty of murder, child rape and robbery.

The European Union had called to halt the execution.

Phil Robertson, Deputy Asia Director at Human Rights Watch, said Manh had a strong alibi which was disregarded.

(Reporting by Francesco Guarascio @fraguarascio; Editing by Michael Perry)

SCI-FI-IMPROPABLE-TEK

Carbon Capture Tech Hype Is Fizzling Out, IEA Says

Angely Mercado
Tue, September 26, 2023 

Wind turbines generate electricity as the Drax Power Station in the background also generates electricity on June 29, 2023 in Selby, England.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released an updated road map this week for reaching zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The new report emphasizes that solutions like carbon capture technology and carbon credits have not lived up to their promise of removing CO2 from our atmosphere, while renewables have made the most progress toward reaching lower emissions targets.

The IEA initially released its first landmark roadmap report back in May 2021 where it outlined that the world needed to end fossil fuel development ASAP. The new IEA report explains that international cooperation and investment in clean energy have shown the most promise for averting the worst of the climate crisis. Emerging tech like hydrogen fuel cells and other emissions-capturing claims previously accounted for an estimated 50% reduction of emissions to reach net zero by 2050 in the 2021 report. Those methods only make up 35% of emissions reduction in this new version of the IEA’s roadmap.

The use of carbon credits and carbon capture were not completely denounced in this week’s roadmap, but the IEA report emphasized that they are tools to use alongside other emissions-lowering solutions. “The credibility of carbon credits has suffered in recent years as a result of market design imperfections and some cases of abuse,” the roadmap explained. “It is essential to ensure that carbon credits are generated from real, verified, additional and permanent emissions reductions or removals.”

The report suggested applying industry guidelines including Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which describes the creation of a global carbon market for transparency and accuracy. It also suggested that corporations receive more guidance on how to formulate their CO2 removal strategies. This is because some companies that have claimed to use carbon offset technologies have used pretty questionable tech in the recent past. Late last year, Drax Group, a UK clean energy company, was selling offset credits based off of U.S.-based power plants that the company hadn’t even built yet.

Hydrogen also played a smaller role in this year’s report as a climate solution. The updated roadmap describes current hydrogen-based technology as another source of unneeded emissions. “Demand for hydrogen is rising, reaching 95 Mt in 2022, but most of it is met by emissions-intensive supply, resulting in more than 0.9 Gt of direct CO2 emissions in 2022,” the report explained.

Relying on hydrogen and carbon capture tech hasn’t really solved much, which means the world should put efforts and financing toward expanding renewables. Clean energy capacity will need to triple worldwide by the end of this decade to avoid further warming, the roadmap says.

This report comes after the northern hemisphere experienced its hottest summer on record, signaling what the future could hold for billions worldwide if we don’t lower emissions by the middle of this century.

Want more climate and environment stories? Check out Earther’s guides to decarbonizing your home, divesting from fossil fuels, packing a disaster go bag, and overcoming climate dread. And don’t miss our coverage of the latest IPCC climate report, the future of carbon dioxide removal, and the un-greenwashed facts on bioplastics and plastic recycling.

Gizmodo

Exclusive-Vietnam's Bamboo Airways struggling to pay pilot wages; some depart - sources

Francesco Guarascio and Khanh Vu
Tue, September 26, 2023 

An Airbus A321 aircraft of Bamboo Airways taxis at Noi Bai airport in Hanoi

HANOI (Reuters) - Some pilots have left Vietnam's restructuring Bamboo Airways in the last two months after late payments in salaries, according to two people familiar with the matter.

About 30 foreign pilots departed during that time, more than 10% of the airline's total pilot staff in June, according to one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information was not public.

A second person said some pilots had recently quit and others were dismissed.

Embattled Bamboo, Vietnam's No. 3 airline, said in a statement to Reuters that it has undertaken drastic restructuring and those efforts encompass its route network, fleet and human resources.


"Bamboo Airways has reduced a number of pilot personnel recently to serve this goal," the statement said, denying that late payments of salaries were the reason behind the departures.

It did not respond to questions about how many pilots have left.

Many staff at Bamboo have sometimes had to face delays in salary payments but this had not, until recently, affected foreign pilots who make up a large majority of the airline's pilot staff, the sources said.

Messages seen by Reuters from an internal company chat forum that management uses to communicate with foreign pilots show some salary payments have been late.

An Aug. 21 message from a company representative in the forum told foreign pilots they would have received on that day 35% of their monthly salary that had been due a week earlier, and they would be informed about the remainder when there was more information.

A similar message was sent a month earlier.

The amounts were later paid in full but foreign pilots had not received their pay for August that had been due on Sept. 15, according to information from one of the people that was current as of Sept. 25.

Bamboo also said in statements to Reuters that it is operating stably and is planning to raise capital from strategic shareholders. It said one of its major financial backers, Vietnam's Sacombank, had expressed confidence in its long-term prospects and the desire to increase its investment in the airline.

Sacombank has not provided comment.

Bamboo's new chief executive, Nguyen Ngoc Trong, said in a letter to staff last month, which was seen by Reuters, that the airline was facing "tough times" but added the government was committed to supporting the company.

Vietnam's Government Office did not reply to a request for comment.

Trong was appointed CEO in July when his predecessor resigned after less than two months on the job.

Bamboo had flagged in 2021 plans to list in the United States but has been struggling with rapid management changes and aggressive restructuring since a former chairman was arrested in March 2022 over allegations of stock market manipulation.

It was not immediately clear which companies have the biggest stakes in Bamboo. A spokesperson for Bamboo said details about its ownership would be disclosed at a later date.

Bamboo, which flies both internationally and domestically, has around 17% of Vietnam's market share, its then CEO told local media in March.

It booked losses of 17.6 trillion dong ($722 million) last year, the government has said.

Bamboo's flights continue to regularly depart, schedules at the country's two main airports show. Seven of its 30 planes, including some of those recently acquired, are currently parked for maintenance, according to tracking website Planespotters.net.

(Reporting by Francesco Guarascio @fraguarascio and Khanh Vu; Additional reporting by Phuong Nguyen, Mai Nguyen and Jamie Freed; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

Las Vegas hospitality workers could be the latest major labor union to go on strike

RIO YAMAT
Updated Tue, September 26, 2023

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Las Vegas hospitality workers may be the latest major labor union in the U.S. to go on strike after tens of thousands of members voted Tuesday on whether to authorize a walkout that could impact some of the city's most iconic casinos and hotels.

The Culinary Workers Union, a political powerhouse in Nevada, hasn’t gone on strike in more than three decades. Results of the vote are expected to be released Tuesday night.

The union said it has not yet set a deadline for a strike as it continues bargaining for better pay and benefits and improved working conditions with the top employers on the Las Vegas Strip, including MGM Resorts International, Caesars Entertainment and Wynn Resorts.

A walkout could disrupt operations at more than three dozen resorts on the Strip and in downtown, the city’s economic backbone.

“We are the glue that keeps these hotels together, and we should be paid what we deserve,” Deanna Virgil, a longtime employee at Wynn Las Vegas, told The Associated Press after casting her vote Tuesday morning.

Virgil was among 53,000 housekeepers, cocktail and food servers, porters, cooks, bartenders and other hotel employees in Las Vegas eligible to take part in the vote, which comes amid increased labor organizing across multiple industries — from strikes to work stoppages. Tuesday’s vote took place on the same day President Joe Biden joined United Auto Workers strikers on a picket line in Michigan.

MGM Resorts said it would comment on the union’s vote later Tuesday after the outcome is announced. Caesars did not immediately respond to emailed requests for comment, and Wynn Resorts said they had no comment.

Virgil, who has worked in the hospitality sector for 38 years, said she is able to make do with her current salary and benefits because she lives with her adult daughter.

“There’s no telling where I would be if I didn’t have the support of my daughter,” Virgil said. “There are a lot of us who have two jobs, but one job should be enough.”

Bethany Khan, the union’s spokesperson, said all members receive health insurance and currently earn about $26 hourly, including benefits. Khan declined to say how much the union is seeking in pay raises because “we do not negotiate in public,” although the union has said it is asking for “the largest wage increases ever negotiated” in the union's history.



The union is scheduled to return to the bargaining table next week with MGM Resorts, Caesars and Wynn Resorts.

Across the country, it’s been a big year for labor unions — from walkouts in Hollywood and on auto production lines in 20 states, to UPS reaching a new deal before a work stoppage that could have significantly disrupted the nation’s supply chain. Workers calling for higher wages, better conditions and job security, especially since the end of the pandemic, have been increasingly willing to walk out on the job as employers face a greater need for workers.

In Nevada, the Culinary Union is the largest labor union, representing about 60,000 hospitality workers. Contracts covering 40,000 of those members in Las Vegas recently expired.

The strike vote was held among workers solely in Las Vegas, and includes employees at properties like the Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, Wynn Las Vegas, MGM Grand, Caesars Palace, Harrah's, Circus Circus, Treasure Island and the Strat.

In 1991, more than 500 workers went on strike at the now-shuttered Frontier hotel and casino in downtown Las Vegas. It became one of the longest strikes in U.S. history, stretching more than six years. The union said all the strikers returned to their jobs afterward, with back pay and benefits.

The union last voted to authorize a strike in 2018. Five-year contracts were reached soon after a majority of the participating 25,000 hospitality workers cast votes to walk off the job. Rory Kuykendall, 40, said he is hopeful that Tuesday's vote will have the same effect.

“It’s great to see all the huge numbers in turnout,” said Kuykendall, a bellperson at Flamingo Las Vegas. “It’s a chance for all the members to come out and show that we’re really ready to fight.”

Last summer, the casino workers’ union in Atlantic City negotiated landmark contracts that gave workers the biggest raises they’ve ever had. It also removed any chance of a strike for several years, an important consideration for Atlantic City’s casino industry as it tries to return to pre-pandemic business levels.

In past contracts, the Atlantic City union had concentrated on preserving health care and pension benefits, but this time sought “significant” pay raises for workers to help them keep pace with spiraling prices for gasoline, food, rent and other living expenses, the union said.

Strike Vote Nevada Culinary Union members rally ahead of a strike vote Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2023, at Thomas & Mack Center on the UNLV campus in Las Vegas. Tens of thousands of hospitality workers who keep the iconic casinos and hotels of Las Vegas humming were set to vote Tuesday on whether to authorize a strike amid ongoing contract negotiations. (K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal via AP)

India's Moon Lander Appears to Have Died

Victor Tangermann
Tue, September 26, 2023 


Last month, India became only the fourth country in the world to pull off a soft landing on the lunar surface.

Afterward, the country's Vikram lander flexed its muscles by releasing a rover and even firing up its thrusters to float 15 inches above the surface before softly landing once again.

A couple of days later, the team at the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) put Vikram and its accompanying Pragyaan rover into sleep mode to wait out the next lunar sunrise on September 22.

Unfortunately, the pair have yet to "re-awaken" from their prolonged night-time nap days later — and, as The Guardian reports, ISRO scientists haven't been able to make contact, saying that "hopes are dimming" of Vikram and Pragyaan ever waking back up.

It's an unfortunate development, highlighting the extreme conditions of the lunar surface, particularly in the long absence of the Sun's warming rays.

Lunar Ambassador

But scientists are far from definitively calling it.

"Efforts to establish communication with the Vikram lander and Pragyaan rover will continue," the ISRO tweeted.

According to the team, mission control will try to reestablish communications until the next sunset on September 30.

"Unless the transmitter on the lander comes on, we have no connectivity," ISRO chief AS Kiran Kumar told the BBC on Monday. "It has to tell us that it's alive. Even if all other sub-systems work, we have no way of knowing that."

Surviving the bitter cold may be difficult, but there have been recent instances of lunar rovers surviving a harsh night. China's Chang'e-4 and Yutu-2 rovers, for instance, have successfully woken up from their slumber on more than one occasion.

However, even if Vikram never wakes up again, India can count its Chandrayaan-3 mission as a groundbreaking success, with the lander serving "as India's lunar ambassador" on the Moon, per the ISRO.

More on the lander: India's Moon Lander Just Took Off Again and Landed in a Different Place

IEA says route to net zero requires more cash and less politics

Forrest Crellin
Updated Tue, September 26, 2023

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, in Brussels

PARIS (Reuters) - Record growth in clean energy technology, including solar panels and electric vehicles, means it is still possible to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

But it also said the world would need need to invest nearly $4.5 trillion per year in the transition to cleaner energy from the start of the next decade, up from spending of $1.8 trillion expected in 2023.

Temperatures have hit record levels this year and global averages are around 1.1C higher compared with the pre-industrial average.

That compares with the goal set by the 2015 U.N. Paris Agreement to keep global temperature rises well below 2C, while pursuing efforts to limit them to 1.5C to prevent the most severe consequences, such as drought, floods and increased wildfires.

In its update to its Net Zero Roadmap, which proposes scenarios to reach net zero emissions by the middle of the century, the IEA said an increase in solar power capacity and in electric vehicle (EV) sales since 2021 were in line with targets, as well as infrastructure plans in both fields.

Much more effort, however, is still required as a tripling of global renewable capacity, a doubling of energy efficient infrastructure, an increase in heat pump sales and a further rise in EV use are needed by 2030, the IEA said.

It also called for a 75% cut in energy sector methane emissions by 2030, which would cost an estimated $75 billion, just 2% of net income received by the oil and gas industry in 2022.

The IEA pathway to net zero will also require an equitable transition, taking into account national circumstances and requiring advanced economies to reach net zero sooner than developing economies, the report said.

Despite this year's extreme weather, politicians, mindful of the cost-of-living crisis and seeking re-election. have been backsliding on climate pledges.

"Governments need to separate climate from geopolitics, given the scale of the challenge at hand," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

(This story has been refiled to correct a typographical error in paragraph 10)

(Reporting by Forrest Crellin; editing by Barbara Lewis)

Global use of oil could peak this decade: IEA

Nick Robertson

THE HILL
Tue, September 26, 2023 



Greenhouse gas emissions and the global demand for fossil fuels could peak this decade, according to an updated analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that emphasized more must be done to prevent devastating climate change.

The agency said that the case for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is “stronger than ever,” citing a rapidly growing green energy industry and electric vehicle sales.

The new projections are an update to the agency’s 2021 plan to get to net zero global greenhouse emissions by 2050.

“The speed of the roll-out of key clean energy technologies means that the IEA now projects that demand for coal, oil and natural gas will all peak this decade even without any new climate policies,” according to the report. “This is encouraging, but not nearly enough for the 1.5 degree Celsius goal.”

Much of that expansion was prodded on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to the report, which forced European countries to move rapidly away from natural gas and to alternative energy sources.

The IEA projects global renewable energy capacity will nearly triple to 11,000 gigawatts by 2030 and methane emissions will fall to a quarter of current levels in the same period — to about 30 megatons per year.

The new plan also relies less on technologies that have not yet been developed. While about half of the reductions in the 2021 report necessitated future tech, the 2023 update reduces that to about 35 percent.

The technologies that have shown the most promise in the last two years have been new battery processes and the hydrogen electrolysis method of removing carbon dioxide from the air, according to the report.

If the world continues and doubles down on investing in green energy sources, as well as ceases new construction of fossil fuel sources, net zero is still possible by 2050, the IEA said, but a lack of international cooperation makes that difficult.

“By 2035, emissions need to decline by 80 percent in advanced economies and 60 percent in emerging market and developing economies compared to the 2022 level,” according to the report. “As part of an equitable pathway to the global goal of net zero emissions by 2050, almost all countries need to bring forward their targeted net zero dates.”

And as time goes on, the need for action becomes more apparent, the agency said.

“The energy sector is changing faster than many people think, but much more needs to be done and time is short. Momentum is coming not just from the push to meet climate targets but also from the increasingly strong economic case for clean energy, energy security imperatives, and the jobs and industrial opportunities that accompany the new energy economy,” the report concludes. “Yet, momentum must be accelerated to be in line with the 1.5°C goal and to ensure that the process of change works for everyone.”

EV sales growth points to oil demand peaking by 2030 − so why is the oil industry doubling down on production?

Robert Brecha, Professor of Sustainability, University of Dayton
Tue, September 26, 2023 

THE CONVERSATION

Tesla brought EVs into the mainstream. Patrick Pleul/picture alliance via Getty Images

Electric vehicle sales are growing faster than expected around the world, and sales of gas- and diesel-powered vehicles have been falling. Yet, the U.S. government still forecasts an increasing demand for oil, and the oil industry is doubling down on production plans.

Why is that, and what happens if the U.S. projections for growing oil demand are wrong?

I study sustainability and global energy system transformations. Let’s take a closer look at the changes underway.

EVs’ giant leap forward

On Sept. 12, 2023, Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental organization that advises the world’s major economies, drew global attention when he wrote in the Financial Times that the IEA is now projecting a global peak in demand for oil, gas and coal by 2030.

The new date was a significant leap forward in time compared with previous estimates that the peak would not be until the 2030s for oil and even later for gas. It also stood out because the IEA has typically been quite conservative in modeling changes to the global energy system.

Birol pointed to changes in energy policies and a faster-than-expected rise in clean technologies – including electric vehicles – along with Europe’s shift away from fossil fuels amid Russia’s war in Ukraine as the primary reasons. He wrote that the IEA’s upcoming World Energy Outlook “shows the world is on the cusp of a historic turning point.”

EV sales have been growing quickly, particularly in China. China’s BYD produces several of the top-selling models globally. VCG/VCG via Getty Images

The United Nations also released its “global stocktake” report in early September, assessing the world’s progress toward meeting the Paris climate agreement goals of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) compared with preindustrial temperatures. The report found serious gaps in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by soon after mid-century. However, it noted two bright spots: The world is more or less on track in the growth in solar photovoltaics for renewable energy – and in the growth of electric vehicles.

The dynamics of EV expansion are important because each vehicle that uses electricity instead of gasoline or diesel fuel will depress demand for oil. Even though demand for petroleum products in other sectors, like aviation and petrochemicals, is still increasing, the IEA expects a decline in road transportation’s 50% share of oil consumption to drive an overall peak in demand within a few years.

EVs are now on pace to dominate global car sales by 2030, with fast growth in China in particular, according to analysts at the Rocky Mountain Institute. If countries continue to upgrade their electricity and charging infrastructure, “the endgame for one quarter of global oil demand will be in sight,” they wrote in a new report. As electric trucks become more common, oil demand will likely drop even faster, the analysts wrote.

Global sales of light-duty vehicles already show a decrease in internal combustion – gasoline and diesel – vehicle sales, mainly due to increasing EV sales, but also due to an overall decline in vehicle sales that started even before the pandemic.
So, why is the US projecting oil demand growth?

Based on the data, it appears that global oil demand will peak relatively soon. Yet, major oil companies say they plan to increase their production, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration still projects that global demand for oil and fossil fuels will continue to grow.

Vehicles do last longer today than they did a couple of decades ago, and they are also larger, slowing down efficiency gains. But the Energy Information Administration appears to be lowballing projections for EV growth.

The Biden administration, which pushed through large U.S. tax incentives for EV purchases, has taken steps to clear the way for increasing some oil and natural gas exploration. And large government subsidies continue flowing to fossil fuel industries in many countries. These contradictions undermine the goals of the Paris Agreement and could lead to costly stranded assets.

What do these trends mean for the oil industry?

It’s fair to assume that large industries should have a good handle on future developments expected to affect their fields. But they often have a competing priority to ensure that short-term gains are preserved.

Electric utilities are an example. Most didn’t feel threatened by renewable electricity until penetration expanded quickly in their territories. In response, some have lobbied to hold off further progress and invented spurious reasons to favor fossil fuels over renewables.

Of course, some companies have changed their business models to embrace the renewable energy transition, but these seem to still be in a minority.

Large corporations such as BP and TotalEnergies invest in renewables, but these investments are often offset by equally large investments in new fossil fuel exploration.

Both Shell and BP recently backpedaled on their previous climate commitments in spite of tacit admissions that increasing oil production is inconsistent with climate change mitigation. Exxon’s CEO said in June 2023 that his company aimed to double its U.S. shale oil production over the next five years.

In 2020, then-BP CEO Bernard Looney declared that the oil company would achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. In 2023, after record profits, BP announced it would increase fossil fuel production investment by about billion a year for the rest of the decade. Daniel Leal/AFP via Getty Images

What is happening in the fossil fuel industry seems to be an example of the so-called “green paradox,” in which it is rational, from a profit-maximization point of view, to extract these resources as quickly as possible when faced with the threat of future decreased market value.

That is, if a company can see that in the future its product will make less money or be threatened by environmental policies, it would be likely to sell as much as possible now. As part of that process, it may be very willing to encourage the building of fossil fuel infrastructure that clearly won’t be viable a decade or two in the future, creating what are known as stranded assets.

In the long run, countries encouraged to borrow to make these investments may be stuck with the bill, in addition to the global climate change impacts that will result.

Extractive industries have known about climate change for decades. But rather than transform themselves into broad-based energy companies, most have doubled down on oil, coal and natural gas. More than two dozen U.S. cities, counties and states are now suing fossil fuel companies over the harms caused by climate change and accusing them of misleading the public, with California filing the latest lawsuit on Sept. 15, 2023.

The question is whether these companies will be able to successfully adapt to a renewable energy world, or whether they will follow the path of U.S. coal companies and not recognize their own decline until it is too late.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. Like this article? 

It was written by: Robert Brecha, University of Dayton.

Read more:

Boosting EV market share to 67% of US car sales is a huge leap – but automakers can meet EPA’s tough new standards

Climate change is an infrastructure problem – map of electric vehicle chargers shows one reason why

Right-to-charge laws bring the promise of EVs to apartments, condos and rentals

Robert Brecha is also affiliated with Climate Analytics, a global non-profit climate science and policy institute. Opinions and ideas expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the University of Dayton or Climate Analytics.
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