CANADA
Cannabis Act review finds companies struggling to profit, health experts supportive

The Canadian Press
Tue, October 10, 2023 



OTTAWA — A review of the federal legislation that paved the way for the legal recreational use and sale of cannabis says companies in the legal market report struggling to realize profits and maintain financial viability.

Retailers cite the burden of taxes, markups, fees, and regulatory compliance costs as barriers to the industry's viability, which they say is a necessary precondition to maintaining a safe and legal source of supply and to combat the illicit market.

The statutory review was launched by the federal government last year to analyze the Cannabis Act, which in 2018 set purchase and possession limits at 30 grams of dried pot or the equivalent, restricted youth access to marijuana and established safety requirements for growing, selling and transporting the substance.

The report says public health experts remain supportive of the legislation's precautionary approach, including THC limits for edible cannabis products and restrictions on promotion, while some suggest considering stricter age limits on who can possess, distribute and buy cannabis.

While the panel that conducted the review says it heard progress has been made on deterring criminal activity and displacing the illicit market, many public safety stakeholders remain concerned about unauthorized retail stores and illegal online channels.

Panellists heard varying viewpoints on whether consumer demand was being met, with consumers still seeking products unavailable in the legal market such as higher-potency edibles, along with limited access in some rural and remote regions.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 10, 2023.

The Canadian Press

RCMP investigating Ontario government's plan to open Greenbelt land for development

CBC
Tue, October 10, 2023 

In September, Ontario Premier Doug Ford apologized for the land swap and said the lands would all be returned to the protected Greenbelt. He has also previously said he is confident nothing criminal took place. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press - image credit)

The RCMP announced Tuesday it has launched a criminal investigation into Ontario Premier Doug Ford's plan to open up Greenbelt land for development.

"Following a referral from the Ontario Provincial Police, the RCMP O Division's Sensitive and International Investigations (SII) unit has now launched an investigation into allegations associated to the decision from the Province of Ontario to open parts of the Greenbelt for development," RCMP Cpl. Christy Veenstra said in a statement Tuesday.

It added that no further updates will be provided at this time to ensure that the investigation process leads to a "fair and proper" outcome.

"While we recognize that this investigation is of significant interest to Canadians, the RCMP has a duty to protect the integrity of the investigations that it carries out."

The criminal probe comes after the province removed land from the protected Greenbelt last year as part of its broader push to build 1.5 million homes by 2031. Last month, Ford walked back his plan to remove large swaths of land from the protected Greenbelt following weeks of public pressure and the resignation of two ministers. He apologized for the land swap and said the lands would all be returned to the Greenbelt.

Prior to the reversal, two legislative watchdogs examining the government's land swap found the process to select which lands were removed from the Greenbelt was flawed and favoured certain developers.

The province's integrity commissioner found Steve Clark, Ford's housing minister at the time, violated ethics rules. Clark resigned shortly after the commissioner's report was released.

The auditor general, in a separate report, found the developers stood to see their land value increase by $8.3 billion because of the land swap.

Ford has previously said he is confident nothing criminal took place.
Government to 'cooperate fully' with investigation

The criminal probe comes after OPP said in August that the force had asked the Mounties to decide whether an investigation is warranted, in order to "avoid any potential perceived conflict of interest."

On Tuesday, Ford's office said it will cooperate fully with any investigation.

"We have zero tolerance for any wrongdoing and expect anyone involved in the decision-making about the Greenbelt lands to have followed the letter of the law," a statement from his office reads.

"Out of respect for the police and their process, we will not be commenting further at this time."

A drone image of an area targeted for removal from the Greenbelt. This is Area 9 - Bathurst-King - East of Dufferin Street, south of Miller's Sideroad, west of Bathurst Street, in King Township.

A drone image of an area targeted for removal from the Greenbelt. This is Area 9 - Bathurst-King - east of Dufferin Street, south of Miller's Sideroad, west of Bathurst Street, in King Township. (John Badcock/CBC)

The province is set to soon table legislation so future changes to the Greenbelt would have to be done through the legislature and not done by regulation, as the Ford government did last November.

Opposition NDP Leader Marit Stiles says she is hopeful that the RCMP investigation will "get us more answers.

"Now we have a Premier who is under criminal investigation and a government that is spiraling out of control," Stiles said in a news conference Tuesday.

"It is absolutely shameful that under Premier Ford's leadership this government has appeared to have acted so improperly that the RCMP was compelled to launch an investigation."

Probe 'key' to delivering justice, accountability

Meanwhile, Ontario Greens leader and Guelph MPP Mike Schreiner said the probe is "key to delivering the justice and accountability Ontarians deserve.

"I am pleased to hear that the RCMP is investigating the corrupt process that saw a few wealthy, well-connected land speculators cash in $8.3 billion on Ontario's Greenbelt," Scheiner said Tuesday.

"Ontario Greens have repeatedly called for a police investigation to repair the harm done by Ford's Greenbelt giveaway and restore Ontarians' trust. But there are still many unanswered questions that have significant implications on the way we govern in this province."

Similarly, John Fraser, interim leader of the Ontario Liberals, called the move "good news.

"Where there's smoke there's fire, and we need to get to the bottom of why a handful of the Premier's friends and fundraisers were given the inside track for an $8.3 billion windfall," Fraser said.

"All roads lead to the Premier's office. There is no way that in a scandal of this size, one rookie chief of staff was the mastermind behind it."

Leafs' Morgan Rielly among NHLers speaking out against decision to ban Pride Tape

The NHL's decision to ban Pride Tape isn't sitting well with a number of people across the league.

Arun Srinivasan
·Contributing Writer
Tue, October 10, 2023

Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly and general manager Brad Treliving reiterated their support for LGBTQ+ communities Tuesday after the NHL banned the use of Pride Tape for the 2023-24 season.

Pride Tape was used by players as a small act of solidarity with LGBTQ+ communities but the NHL has taken a step backward in its support for queer and trans people throughout the 2023 calendar year. ESPN’s Ryan S. Clark reported that the league recently sent out a memo clarifying which special initiatives teams could participate in, including Military Appreciation Night.

Earlier this summer, commissioner Gary Bettman called themed practice jerseys “a distraction” from the goal of the league’s special interest nights.

"We'll make sure we continue to find our ways to do the right things to support,” Treliving told reporters Tuesday.

“I wish players had the right to do more and be more involved,” Rielly said Tuesday via Sportsnet’s Luke Fox. “I'm going to continue to be involved in the community and offer support to those communities and those groups that want that, need that.”

Morgan Rielly has been a vocal ally of the LGBTQ+ community. (Photo by Andrew Lahodynskyj/NHLI via Getty Images)

Rielly has been a vocal advocate of LGBTQ+ communities throughout his career in Toronto and has taken part in the city’s annual Pride festivities several times. Toronto hosted a Pride Night on April 4 last season and Rielly was excited to participate.

“I think it's a great opportunity for our organization to make everybody feel welcome,” Rielly told Yahoo Sports at the time. “You want Scotiabank Arena to be a place where people feel included, be involved, be a part of what we're doing and it's a great opportunity for us to express that tonight.”

Calgary Flames defenseman Rasmus Andersson said he wanted to continue to support LGBTQ+ communities and offered his disappointment with the NHL’s decision.

"It sucks. It’s something that’s close to my heart and something I would love to support, but it is what it is,” Andersson said via TSN’s Salim Nadim Valji.

“It is a sensitive subject for some people. I don't understand why," Andersson said. "...It's not just Pride Tape, it's Hockey Fights Cancer, that's a big one. We've just got to find different ways to support it. It's something so natural to me, so I don't understand it.”

Pride Tape and its partner, You Can Play, released official statements Tuesday outlining their disappointment with the NHL’s decision:



"The league has used language in recent days which would prohibit the tape from any proximity to NHL hockey. We hope the league — and teams — will again show commitment to this important symbol of combating homophobia."


This story will be updated as more developments emerge.

SHORTEST STRIKE EVER

Canadian auto workers, GM reach tentative contract agreement, ending strike that began at midnight

Tue, October 10, 2023 



TORONTO (AP) — General Motors and the union representing Canadian auto workers reached a tentative contract agreement Tuesday, ending a strike that began just after midnight.

About 4,300 striking workers at two GM factories and a parts warehouse will return to work Tuesday afternoon and will vote on the three-year deal later.

Lana Payne, president of the Unifor union, said that, when faced with the strike, GM had no choice but to follow a pattern agreement reached earlier with Ford.

She says the deal includes “all items that the company had initially fought us on such as pensions, retiree income supports and converting full-time temporary workers into permanent employees over the life of the agreement.”

GM said that it reached the deal with Unifor around 1 p.m. Tuesday after workers went on strike at the Ontario facilities just after midnight. The deal recognizes employee contributions with significant pay and benefit increases and additional job security, the automaker said.

The new agreement covers autoworkers at GM’s assembly plant in Oshawa, a powertrain plant in St. Catharines, and a parts distribution center in Woodstock.

The workers struck at GM after Unifor workers ratified a new three-year labor contract with Ford late last month.

The agreement with GM, if ratified by members, would leave only Jeep maker Stellantis without a contract with Unifor.

Unifor said that the deal includes pay raises of nearly 20% for production workers and 25% for skilled trades. Workers would get 10% in general pay raises in the first year, with 2% in the second and 3% in the third. The company also agreed to restore cost-of-living pay raises starting in December of 2024. Temporary workers would get pay raises, and those with at least one year of service would get permanent jobs.

Workers who get defined-contribution retirement plans will move to a new defined-benefits pension on Jan. 1, 2025.

Payne said earlier that the union had a lot of bargaining leverage with GM because the factory in Oshawa is working around the clock to build profitable Chevrolet pickups. However, in her remarks to reporters she said “demographics," presumably of an aging work force, were a major hurdle.

The deal ratified by workers at Ford of Canada raises base hourly pay for production workers by almost 20% over three years.

Until Tuesday, Unifor had avoided going on strike against the Detroit automakers, unlike its U.S. counterpart, the United Auto Workers. About 25,000 UAW members are on strike against Detroit automakers at five targeted factories and 38 parts distribution centers.

Unifor members at a fourth GM facility, the CAMI Assembly Plant in Ingersoll, Ontario, are covered by a separate bargaining agreement and did not strike.

The union is Canada's largest in the private sector, with 315,000 workers in many industries.

The Associated Press

Unifor reaches tentative deal with General Motors that mirrors Ford agreement

The Canadian Press
Tue, October 10, 2023 



TORONTO — Unifor said Tuesday afternoon that within hours of workers going on strike, General Motors had agreed to a tentative deal that mirrors the one it reached with Ford Motor Co. last month.

"It is thanks to the solidarity of you, the members, that it was possible to move General Motors to accept the pattern to the letter," said Unifor president Lana Payne in a statement Tuesday afternoon.

Close to 4,300 autoworkers at GM's Oshawa assembly plant, St. Catharines propulsion plant, and Woodstock parts distribution centre had gone on strike at midnight after the company resisted the terms set out in the Ford deal.

Payne said key areas of contention included pensions, retiree income supports and converting full-time temporary workers into permanent employees, but that the company had relented on all fronts.

General Motors Canada president Marissa West said the deal includes significant increases in wages, benefits and job security.

"This record agreement, subject to member ratification, recognizes the many contributions of our represented team members," she said in a press release.

Workers at the three operations were expected to go back to work Tuesday afternoon, while Unifor said ratification votes would be scheduled in the coming days.

The terms of the three-year contract include base hourly wage increases of nearly 20 per cent for production and 25 per cent for skilled trades (when compounded), a faster timeline for workers to reach the top wage tier, improvements to pensions and two new paid holidays.

Industry analyst Sam Fiorani said GM has more senior-level workers than Ford so the terms are more expensive for it to meet.

"Their older workers are already getting good benefits, and to up their benefits even more would cost GM a lot of money relative to the workforce they have."

Fiorani, vice-president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, said that GM had the resources to hold out for some time since it has several other plants producing the pickup trucks being made in Oshawa, but that it would have been costly for the automaker.

"Every lost Silverado and Silverado HD unit is worth tens of thousands of dollars of profit ... every lost unit is felt on the bottom line."

Unifor workers at Ford overall voted 54 per cent in favour of the deal, though skilled trades members in Windsor and Oakville voted down the deal.

If GM members vote in favour of the contract, Unifor would then turn its attention to reaching the same terms with Stellantis.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 10, 2023.

Unifor workers reach agreement with Canadian GM plants in less than 24 hours

Tue, October 10, 2023 

Canada's Unifor union started a strike against General Motors on Tuesday. File Photo by Jeff Kowalsky/EPA-EFE

Oct. 10 (UPI) -- The Canadian autoworkers union Unifor launched a strike against General Motors Tuesday, joining thousands of Americans on the picket lines.

In less then 24 hours, the union reached a tentative agreement with the automaker Tuesday afternoon.

More than 4,280 Unifor workers had begun striking at the Oshawa Assembly Complex and CCA Stamped Products, St. Catharines Powertrain Plant and Woodstock Parts Distribution Center.

By 1:30 p.m. ET, though, the union reached an agreement.

"When faced with the shutdown of these key facilities General Motors had no choice but to get serious at the table and agree to the pattern," said Unifor National President Lana Payne. "The solidarity of our members has led to a comprehensive tentative agreement that follows the pattern set at Ford Motor Company to the letter, including all items that company had initial fought us on such as pensions, retiree income supports and converting full-time temporary workers into permanent employees over the life of the agreement."

Earlier in the day, the union had said members at Unifro Locals 222, 199 and 636 would remain on strike "until the pattern is met" while members at the Cami Assembly plant in Ontario would continue operations as they are covered by a separate collective agreement.

In a letter to union members, Unifor leaders said that they worked throughout the Canadian Thanksgiving weekend to reach a deal but GM "made it clear they would not agree to meet the conditions of the pattern agreement" as talks entered the final hours.

Unifor said at the time that GM failed to meet its demands on pension, income supports for retired worker and steps to transition temporary workers into permanent full-time jobs.

The new tentative agreement covers more than 4,000 autoworkers at Unifor locals 222, 199 and 636, putting strike actions on hold to allow members to vote on the plan.

Unifor is Canada's largest private-sector union, representing 315,000 workers in every major area of the economy.

The two sides had averted a strike last month, reaching a tentative agreement.

Tuesday's short strike comes on the heels of the United Auto Workers strike in the United States against General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis.

In the United States, thousands of United Auto Workers connected with Mack Trucks walked off the job in three states Monday after rejecting a new pay deal. The union said the strike would start at facilities in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Florida.

The strike comes after UAW turned down the latest pay offer from the truck manufacturer, with 73% of the 4,000-member union body voting against a tentative agreement reached just one week ago.

The UAW strike against the "Big Three" automakers in the United States, approached one month on Tuesday with the union asking for record pay increases in light of strong profits made by the carmakers since the COVID-19 pandemic. The union had cited some progress last week in negotiations.

Thousands of GM workers at Ontario plants begin strike


Naimul Karim
Tue, October 10, 2023


About 4,300 workers at General Motors of Canada Co. have gone on strike for the first time since 1996 as they demand pension improvements, higher pay and more job security.

Canada’s largest private-sector union, Unifor, which represents employees at the Big Three automakers, hoped to get a similar deal to the one ratified by Ford Motor Co. of Canada’s workers last month. That deal included wage increases of almost 80 per cent in some cases and productivity bonuses of up to $10,000 for full-time workers.

However, the union wasn’t able to reach an agreement with GM by the 11:59 p.m. deadline on Oct. 9.

“We bargained a really great deal with Ford Motor Company a number of weeks ago, and our job here was to do everything we could to pattern that agreement with GM,” Unifor national president Lana Payne said at a press conference on Oct. 10. “We are not there yet. As a result, we are on picket lines.”

GM Canada president and managing director Marissa West said the company presented Unifor with a “record economic offer,” but that there are some “outstanding items” that need to be resolved at the bargaining table.

“We are committed to quickly reaching a new collective agreement so that we can all get back to work,” she said in a statement on Oct. 10.

Unifor’s work stoppage means that GM is now facing work stoppage both in the United States and in Canada. In the U.S., United Auto Workers (UAW) members have been on strike at the Big Three since Sept. 15.

In Ontario, Unifor’s strike includes autoworkers at three Ontario plants in Oshawa, St. Catharines and Woodstock.

Aside from pension improvements and wage hikes, Unifor is asking that more temporary employees be given permanent work status so that they can get better job security.

Payne is confident of getting a similar agreement as they one Ford agreed to, but she said it was going to be a challenge.

“No company likes to take the terms and conditions that you have negotiated with another company and apply it to their own operations. This is never an easy thing to do,” she said, but added that GM would not be able to “break our pattern — not today — not ever.”

Jessica McNally, a quality inspector at GM, said the pattern agreement would be “life-changing” for the company’s workers.

Defined-benefit pension plans may be poised for comeback


What unions have won in hard-fought summer of strikes

“We live paycheque to paycheque right now, we have had issues with part shortages, where sometimes shifts get cancelled, we get sent home early, and it really affects us, our paycheques,” she said in a video posted on Unifor’s website. “Getting these gains, will make it easier for people.”

• Email: nkarim@postmedia.com | Twitter: naimonthefield

Canada's autoworker union orders a strike against GM after failure to reach a new contract

Jamie L. LaReau, USA TODAY NETWORK
Tue, October 10, 2023

Nearly 4,300 autoworkers in Canada went on strike against General Motors early Tuesday.

GM and Unifor, the union that represents autoworkers in Canada, failed to reach a tentative agreement by the time Unifor's contract with GM expired at 11:59 p.m. Monday, prompting Unifor to order a strike at midnight for 4,280 members, it said.

It is the first strike of an automaker in Canada since 1996 and comes after the union reached a tentative agreement with Ford Motor Co., which the workforce ratified on Sept. 24.

Unifor members stand on strike at General Motors Oshawa Assembly Plant, where the automaker builds the Chevrolet Silverado pickup. The Unifor members went on strike at midnight Oct. 10, 2023 after Unifor and GM failed to reach a tentative agreement by the time their contract expired at 11:59 p.m. Oct. 9, 2023.

The affected facilities are GM's Oshawa Assembly Complex and CCA Stamped Products, St. Catharines Propulsion Plant and GM's Woodstock Distribution Center, all in Ontario. Unifor Local 88 members at the CAMI Assembly Plant in Ingersoll, Ontario, are covered by a separate collective agreement and continue operations.

“This strike is about General Motors stubbornly refusing to meet the pattern agreement" the union got with Ford, said Unifor National President Lana Payne. She said the Unifor members at the GM facilities will stay on strike until a pattern agreement is met.

See UAW strike: See the picket lines as UAW strike launched, targeting big three Detroit automakers

In a statement, GM Canada Communications Executive Director Jennifer Wright said, “While we have made very positive progress on several key priorities over the past weeks, we are disappointed that we were not able to achieve a new collective agreement with Unifor at this time. GM Canada remains at the bargaining table and is committed to keep working with Unifor to reach an agreement that is fair and flexible."

Unifor's Payne said in a media briefing that the remaining key issues are the union's pension demands, income that supports retired workers and meaningful steps to transition temporary workers into permanent, full-time jobs.

“When you’re looking at an agreement we reached with Ford Motor Co. … it was economically significant, a lot of improvements. It was the first pension improvement in 15 years with our Ford members. We bargained the highest wage increases that we’ve seen bargained here in Canada," Payne said, noting the union achieved job security too around the transition to electric vehicles.

Unifor members on strike at General Motors Oshawa Assembly Plant, where the automaker builds the Chevrolet Silverado pickup. The Unifor members went on strike at midnight Oct. 10, 2023 after Unifor and GM failed to reach a tentative agreement by the time their contract expired at 11:59 p.m. Oct. 9, 2023.

The Ford agreement includes a 15% increase in wages over the contract term and employees in a defined contribution retirement plan hired on or after Nov. 7, 2016, would be enrolled in a new pension plan in 2025 that would include monthly pensions for workers and surviving spouses. Other improvements include an increase in the monthly benefit for those workers in a pension plan.

Payne said Unifor made some progress with GM throughout Monday, but not enough for a tentative agreement.

"We’re negotiating and will stick with it until we get a deal our members will support," Payne said. "We’ve been very clear from the beginning that we expect GM to live up to this agreement with Ford … we’re showing GM that we mean business here and we want to get the pattern deal we got with Ford."

Unifor's U.S. counterpart, the UAW, has been on strike since Sept. 15 when it launched a targeted Stand Up Strike against GM, Ford and Stellantis, the company that makes Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram and Fiat vehicles. It's expanded the strike twice since that time to include all 38 of GM and Stellantis parts distribution centers and then to Ford's Chicago Assembly and GM's Lansing Delta Township Assembly plants on Sept 29. About 25,000 UAW autoworker members are on strike of the 150,000 in the United States.

Contact Jamie L. LaReau: jlareau@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @jlareauan. Read more on General Motors and sign up for our autos newsletter. Become a subscriber.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Canada's autoworkers strike General Motors and join UAW workers in US

Danielle Smith's big-money sales pitch on Alberta pension plan hasn't worked yet

Premier Danielle Smith has told Albertans that starting a separate provincial pension plan would bring residents higher benefits for lower contributions. Now she has to convince people about this rosy future.© jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau can usually only count on polite applause when he's talking to an Alberta business crowd.

But when executives hosted him this week at an Ottawa reception, he found one line worked surprisingly well — praise for the national pension program that Premier Danielle Smith wishes to exit.

In a list of federal programs assisting Alberta (health care, transit, housing), Trudeau added:

"It's why we strengthened the Canada Pension Plan and why we need to make sure it continues to protect a stable and dignified retirement for all Canadians."

As the solid bout of clapping died down, the prime minister smirked, "Couldn't resist that one."

The assembled energy executives and business lobbyists have ample qualms with federal energy regulations and climate strategies, but they don't have a bone to pick with CPP.

And this is an area where corporate Alberta's attitudes are in sync with the broader public.

According to the first major poll conducted since Smith began her persuasion pitch to remove Alberta from CPP, the proposal remains about as widely opposed as it was before. Fifty-two per cent of Albertans think it's a bad or very bad idea, compared to 19 per cent who think it's a good or very good one, and 15 per cent who are in the middle, the Abacus Data survey shows.

Last month, Smith released a feasibility study that suggested Alberta would get to start its own pension plan with 53 per cent of the CPP's assets — one-third of a trillion dollars. With that much in its kitty, an Alberta Pension Plan could offer residents a rosy future of both lower contributions and higher benefits, arguments the government is presenting through one of its large new advertising campaigns. (No, not that one; the other one.)

Those boasts don't seem to have shifted public opinion much. The few who support it are overwhelmingly younger Albertans — those farthest away from receiving pensions, and are therefore less vulnerable to any gyrations or risks in the health of the retirement security program.

"The (people) most engaged, most likely to vote, probably the most important to the UCP base itself are the most likely to be resistant to this idea right now," pollster David Coletto said in an interview.

For the pullout to be approved in a 2025 referendum, Smith and other proponents would have to convince all those people who consider it an "OK idea" to support it, convert some opponents to supporters, and ensure those enthusiasts come out to vote in greater numbers than the APP skeptics.

Coletto notes that most referendums to directly change the status quo get rejected, a record that holds from Québec separatism to the Charlottetown Accord right up to Alberta's 2021 ballot question to ditch Daylight Saving Time. (The province's equalization referendum? It directly changed nothing.)

The UCP government is doing its best to accentuate all the idealized positives of a plan that would supposedly enrich everybody, including the pension's payers and payees, complete with an online survey that doesn't offer Albertans much chance to register displeasure — preferring, instead, to describe how much rosier they'd like their contributions and benefits to be.

It might help Smith's sales pitch if more groups or experts were coming out to bolster the case for the APP. They're getting the inverse.

The national small business lobby questions the true benefits for Albertans, and the impact on members in the rest of Canada. The Calgary Chamber of Commerce is putting up caution flags about the various uncertainties in abandoning the predictable old Canadian pension system.

"We've benefited from being part of a bigger pool. That means the expenses are shared, the risks are shared," chamber president Deborah Yedlin told CBC's West of Centre podcast. The province cannot rely on the strong investment performance that the national fund enjoys, she added.

"Your returns are going to be challenged because you can't invest in (relative) size," Yedlin said.

The Fraser Institute, a conservative think-tank, is optimistic about the idea and potential perks for Albertans. However, its thinkers have been making the same case about Albertans paying less into a theoretical pension plan of their own for years, before Alberta began studying the idea in earnest under former premier Jason Kenney's Fair Deal Panel.

There is one Alberta entity that used to be more cautious about the pension idea, but now sees far more upside. That would be the Alberta Finance Department itself.

In September 2019, officials drafted a briefing note to then-finance minister Travis Toews, who served in that role for both Kenney and Smith. It was made public under Freedom of Information law and previously reported on in 2020, but bears revisiting today.

Unlike the government's current promotions, the briefing note assesses pros and cons. Pro: a relatively young province could offer residents lower contributions.

Con: that future is more prone to bumps: "The diminished risk pool of an Alberta Pension Plan is more likely to create contribution volatility relative to the CPP," the note to Toews states.

It expresses several other risks, like high administration costs, and weaker returns.

The 2019 briefing note doesn't only consider the assets Alberta could withdraw from CPP, but it also notes the high liabilities. And its estimated slice of CPP assets is much smaller than the government's recent Lifeworks report — below 12 per cent, rather than 53 per cent.

That amount may be overly conservative compared to what economist Trevor Tombe has supposed Alberta could get, and compared to Alberta's share of population among nine CPP provinces.

But it does underline the point that if the argument for a much larger take was widely understood or shared before the Lifeworks report became the apple of Smith's eye this year, the more astronomical figure would have been more common in the discourse before now. (But it hasn't been; in 2020, the Fair Deal Panel itself predicted Alberta's asset grab would be a more modest $40 billion to $70 billion.)

The Smith government's new arguments don't seem to have worked yet, but they have two years to shift opinion before a possible referendum in 2025. That leaves much more time for detractors to tilt the debate in their favour, as well.

Other provinces may develop counter-arguments to ensure Alberta doesn't weaken their program — and Trudeau's remarks on this divisive issue may one day amount to more than smirking asides.

The devil in the actuarial details: The problems with a $334-billion transfer from CPP to Alberta

Special to Financial Post | Doug Chandler, Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald
Tue, October 10, 2023 

Canadian one hundred dollar banknotes

The Alberta government has released a consultant’s report that includes a $334-billion estimate of the asset transfer from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) fund to a new fund to be established for a stand-alone Alberta pension plan.

There are three distinct issues with this number. First, the provisions in the CPP Act concerning the asset transfer are not particularly clear. Second, the number is calculated using data by province of residence, whereas CPP operates on the province of employment. Last but not least, the transfer represents 53 per cent of the CPP fund and that seems too big when Alberta represents only 16 per cent of CPP contributions.

The formula in the CPP Act

The withdrawal provisions in the CPP Act were introduced in 1965 when all of Canada’s provinces, except Quebec, first agreed to join the Canada Pension Plan. Ontario in particular wasn’t fully convinced of the merits of going into a national plan, so the 1965 CPP Act included a money-back guarantee, allowing provinces to change their mind. That’s what the Alberta government is proposing.

After 60 years of contributing the same rate and getting the same benefits as everyone else, the Alberta government is asking Albertans to renege on the decision to join in the first place. What was akin to a 60-day money-back guarantee is being used as a 60-year money-back guarantee.

The formula in the CPP Act provides for a refund of contributions with investment earnings attributed to those contributions, minus the related benefits and administration fees. What this formula fails to mention is critical. It fails to deduct investment earnings on benefits and fees. The consultant’s report notes that a literal interpretation of this formula would lead to an asset transfer of $747 billion — more than the total CPP fund.

The consultants chose to deduct benefits and fees before allocating hypothetical investment earnings at the actual rate earned by the fund. This liberty brings the estimate down to $334 billion, excluding a small additional transfer for the benefit improvements added to CPP in 2019. Even with this correction, the formula doesn’t add up. If all of the provinces with above-average growth in their working-age populations elected an asset transfer, the formula would produce a total asset transfer that would exceed the total assets of the CPP fund.

In his working paper on the Alberta Pension Plan, Trevor Tombe suggests that Alberta’s entitlement to investment earnings under the Act means attributing the total realized investment earnings in proportion to contributions. This interpretation of the Act has the desirable feature that the total of hypothetical asset transfers to all provinces would equal the total assets. Tombe concludes the asset transfer using this interpretation of the legislation (and some other smaller differences), would be $150 billion.

Data problems

When individuals apply for a pension, either Service Canada or the Quebec Pension Plan (QPP) administrator (depending on where they live at that time), will determine benefits from both plans based on the entire history of pensionable earnings by province of employment, as reported on T4 slips. The administrator will make combined payments for the total pension and then the CPP and QPP will settle up their share of the pensions year by year.

In their report, the consultants used publicly available data by province of residence to calculate the $334-billion asset transfer. In the formal actuarial opinion, they say “the data on which the calculations are based are sufficient and reliable based on the terms of the engagement for this report.” Reference to the terms of engagement is a polite way for an actuary to say that the data isn’t really sufficient but they did what they could with the data and the budget they had and their client told them not to waste any more time trying to make it better.

This is a situation in which an actuary is required by professional standards to report both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the impediment to obtaining adequate data. The consultants analyzed interprovincial migration statistics to quantify the impact. They found the potential asset transfer could turn out to be as small as $262 billion or as large as $362 billion once the necessary data by province of employment becomes available. Using interprovincial migration data doesn’t address individuals who maintained a residence or family ties in their home province while working in Alberta — an example of this would be construction camps for oilsands plants in the Fort McMurray area. So correct and complete data could lead to an asset transfer even smaller than $262 billion.

Fairness

This brings us to the last issue. The money-back guarantee approach to calculating the asset transfer looks backwards to contributions and benefits that have already been paid. It rests on the premise that contributions are used to pay current benefits and Alberta contributions should only be used to pay Alberta pensions. Albertans have been contributing more than would have been required in a stand-alone provincial pension plan because workers have been moving to Alberta. The asset transfer contemplated in the CPP Act retroactively eliminates the responsibility of Alberta contributors for current beneficiaries in other provinces — even the parents and grandparents of those new Alberta workers!

If the result is unreasonable and the formula was never intended to be applied in this way, the solution is to amend the CPP Act to substitute a more equitable formula. The principle that a formula must be changed when it produces an unreasonable result appears to be what Alberta Premier Danielle Smith meant when she said Alberta wants a “better constructive relationship with the rest of the country and this begins the conversation” about equalization payments and other national programs.

One obvious alternative to the formula in the CPP Act would be to allocate the assets in proportion to the benefit liabilities being transferred to Alberta — the approach widely used for divestitures in private sector pension plans. That is, an asset transfer would be calculated by looking forward at the pensions that will be paid based on the history of Alberta contributory earnings, rather than backward at the benefits and contributions that have already been paid. This approach would produce an asset transfer around $100 billion.

A second approach used in private sector pension plans, is to transfer assets equal to the accounting or solvency liability for the pensions being transferred. This approach would produce a much larger asset transfer.

A third approach would be to determine the asset transfer in a way that avoids disruption for either Alberta or the remaining provinces by keeping the steady-state contribution rate or the target ratio of assets to liabilities the same in the new plans as it is in the existing plan. This last approach could produce an even smaller asset transfer, especially if it is assumed that Alberta’s working age population will continue to grow at the current pace.

So, to sum up, the right value for the asset transfer from the CPP fund to an Alberta fund is somewhere in a range of $100 billion to $747 billion. There are many moving parts to this calculation, most of which have been ignored. Of course, there are other issues to consider aside from the size of the asset transfer but, until this one is addressed, it will be difficult to focus on them.

What the Canada Pension Plan might look like without Alberta


Alberta wants to leave the CPP: What it means for Canada


‘Impossible’ for Alberta to exit with half of CPP assets: official

While the stated purpose of the consultant’s report was to “help answer key questions that Albertans are asking about the costs and benefits of such a move,” more work is required before Albertans will be in a position to make an informed choice in a referendum.

Doug Chandler is a Calgary-based actuary and an associate fellow of the National Institute on Ageing, Toronto Metropolitan University.

Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald is a Halifax-based actuary and the Director of Financial Security Research at the National Institute on Ageing, Toronto Metropolitan University.

Alberta auditor general to examine failed community lab testing privatization program

EDMONTON — Alberta’s auditor general says he will investigate what went wrong with the United Conservative Party government’s abandoned plan to privatize community lab testing provincewide.

Doug Wylie’s office says in a statement Friday that he will examine procurement and contracting processes.

He plans to make a report available early next year.

Alberta’s Opposition NDP had asked Wylie to investigate the deal, saying Premier Danielle Smith’s government cannot be trusted to determine or divulge what went wrong.

In August, Health Minister Adriana LaGrange cancelled the handling of community lab testing by private provider Dynalife after months of complaints of long wait times and service bottlenecks in Calgary and the southern region.

LaGrange said the province has signed a memorandum of understanding with Dynalife to transfer its staff, equipment and property to the province by the end of the year.

NDP health critic David Shepherd said in a statement Friday that he's encouraged that Albertans will get "some answers on how and why the UCP caused so much damage to the health care we rely on."

“The catastrophic failure of lab privatization is a dire warning to Albertans for the next UCP gamble with our health care," he said.

Alberta Health spokesperson Charlotte Taillon responded in a statement.

"The delays Albertans experienced to access lab services have been unacceptable," wrote Taillon.

"We explored all options to resolve the delays in testing and did what was necessary to make sure Albertans have reliable and speedy access to lab services now and into the future. All parties involved mutually supported this decision.

"This is within the role of the auditor general to investigate and Alberta Health and (Alberta Health Services) will fully co-operate with the investigation."

Dynalife has run lab testing in Edmonton and northern Alberta for more than two decades.

It expanded service to the rest of the province late last year under contract to the province on the promise of an expected $18 million to $36 million in annual savings.

Under the deal, Dynalife operations will be taken over by Alberta Precision Laboratories, which is part of Alberta Health Services, the province's health-care provider.

Alberta Precision Laboratories normally handles lab tests in hospitals and urgent care centres and in remote locations where there is no community lab testing available.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 6, 2023.

Dean Bennett, The Canadian Press

The future of electric vehicles looms over negotiations in the US autoworkers strike


Tue, October 10, 2023 


WAYNE, Mich. (AP) — On the picket lines at a Ford factory west of Detroit, many striking workers don't think the electric vehicle revolution is coming for their jobs — at least not in the near future.

But just in case, they're backing United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain's quest to unionize EV battery factories at Ford and Jeep maker Stellantis, matching a breakthrough concession made by General Motors last week.

So far, neither Ford nor Stellantis has agreed to the change, which would pull employees at all 10 U.S. battery factories proposed by Detroit automakers into national contracts with the UAW, all but assuring they'll be unionized.

Fain also wants workers at the plants to make top UAW assembly plant wages, which now are $32 per hour.

With the UAW strike now in its fourth week, EVs and their potential impact on job security have become central to union negotiations with the automakers. Contract talks are likely to determine whether those plants — mostly joint ventures with South Korean battery companies — are union, which may have long-lasting consequences as the auto industry transforms itself.

“The battery plants are going to be the make-or-break issue,” said Sam Abuelsamid, a mobility analyst for Guidehouse Insights. “It’s going to be a critical factor for them to get good labor agreements at these plants.”

In short, if electric vehicles replace gas-powered ones, most UAW workers at engine and transmission plants will lose their jobs. And if lower-paying battery plants aren't union, workers won't have anywhere to get the same wages and benefits.

Ford and Stellantis thus far don’t want to pay top union wages, fearing that will push up their costs over Tesla and other competitors with nonunion battery plants mainly in the U.S. South. That could make Detroit’s EVs more expensive and harder to sell.

The issue, festering for months behind pay and cost-of-living increases, restoration of retirement benefits for new hires and even a 32-hour workweek, became huge Friday when GM agreed to unionization.

Stellantis didn't comment directly on GM's move, but Ford said workers will have to choose once they are hired at plants that haven’t been built yet. Although Ford said it's willing to work with the union, the company said it's investing billions in battery plants that have to operate "at sustainably competitive levels.”

Last month, Ford CEO Jim Farley accused the union of using the battery plant issue to hold a potential contract agreement hostage. Ford has decided to locate three of its four proposed battery plants in Kentucky and Tennessee, states where workers and politicians could be more hostile to the UAW. The company has put on hold a fourth plant to be built in Michigan by Ford itself.

Before GM changed its stance, the automakers said they have South Korean joint venture partners at nine of 10 battery factories, and those partners have to be at the bargaining table.

Automakers are telling workers their jobs are secure, but the union doesn't see that in the transition to electric vehicles, Fain said. Instead, the companies want to pay “poverty wages” at the new plants and drive down pay in the industry, he said.

“It's really hard to envision a future for us where we have no piece of the battery,” said Fain, adding that 20% — almost 30,000 — of the union’s 146,000 members at the Detroit Three now work in factories that make internal combustion engines and transmissions.

Farley and other auto executives have said that because EVs have fewer moving parts, they will require 30% to 40% fewer workers to assemble than gasoline vehicles. But GM CEO Mary Barra insists there will be enough work to bring everyone along.

A study by Carnegie Mellon University backs her up, in part, finding that it will take more labor to build electric vehicle batteries, motors and drivelines than engines and transmissions for combustion engine vehicles.

On the picket line at the Ford plant in Wayne, Michigan, where Bronco SUVs and Ranger pickups are made, workers questioned whether people would buy EVs because of their limited travel range and lack of charging stations. But they also see a future where buyers could switch, and they think wages at the battery plants should match what they make.

“They’re part of Ford and should be unionized as well," said Chris Jedrzejek, who has worked for the company 23 years. “I'm sure that Ford would rather not have their battery plants unionized, but with the actions of GM, they set the precedent.”

He doesn't believe the company line that higher-wage union battery plants would make Detroit's EVs too pricey. The pay at nonunion Toyota assembly plants, for instance, is similar to the top wage of UAW workers, he said, although Jedrzejek concedes that many Ford workers have better benefits such as pensions.

“I think it’s just a bunch of rhetoric just to try to scare us into signing a bad deal,” he said.

Worker Todd Lauerman, who has been with Ford a dozen years, said making the battery plants union is crucial because fewer workers may be needed to build EVs, and the issue has to be settled this year because if the plants start running and aren’t union, “it’s going to be a lot harder to get it in the next contract.”

It's likely GM agreed to unionize its four U.S. battery plants because workers probably would have voted for the union anyway, Abuelsamid said. The UAW, he said, will use this to try to organize other Korean-owned battery plants.

One GM plant in northeastern Ohio already has voted for the UAW, two more are right next to GM assembly plants in Tennessee and Michigan, and the fourth is near South Bend, Indiana, not far from other GM factories.

“They may have thought they were going to get unionized one way or another, let's just get it done,” said Harry Katz, a professor of collective bargaining at Cornell University.

Stellantis' staying quiet may mean it's willing to work a deal, but Ford's public statements so far indicate it will fight bringing its plants into the national UAW contract.

Katz, though, thinks Ford will eventually have to agree to the template set by GM. “On a matter of principle like this, I don't see them agreeing to anything other than the pattern,” he said.

Without organizing the battery plants, union wins on wages and benefits could be only temporary because membership would decline if the battery factories are nonunion, said Marick Masters, a business professor at Wayne State University.

“It could turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory if inroads aren’t also carved out at the nonunionized factories that will play a pivotal role in the industry’s future," Masters said.

Tom Krisher And Mike Householder, The Associated Press

UK
Civil Aviation Authority appoints new boss amid air traffic control chaos review


Harry Stedman, PA
Fri, 6 October 2023

A former pilot has been announced as the new chief executive of the UK’s aviation regulator, as it conducts a review into the August bank holiday air traffic control meltdown.

Rob Bishton will take up the leading role at the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) from October 21.

He joined the CAA in 2014 and previously spent time at easyJet as chief pilot and head of aircraft operations.

It comes as the regulator said it will consider “airline and airport costs” in its independent review of the events of the August 28 bank holiday.

There was major disruption to flights across UK airports after air traffic control services suffered a technical glitch.

The combined cost to airlines in providing refunds, re-bookings, hotel rooms and refreshments to affected passengers has been estimated at around £100 million by industry body the International Air Transport Association.

There was disruption caused by air traffic control issues across the UK and Ireland in August (PA)

Former CAA chief executive Richard Moriarty stepped down earlier this year after five years in the role.

Mr Bishton said: “I am delighted to be taking on the role of chief executive. The Civil Aviation Authority plays a vital role in shaping the future of aviation and aerospace.

“I am committed to working closely with our stakeholders to ensure that the industry remains safe, innovative and competitive.

“It is our commitment to deliver for consumers, who rightly expect the highest standards from our industry.

“Working alongside all of our dedicated people, our fantastic executive team and the board, I look forward to building on the Civil Aviation Authority’s legacy of excellence on both the domestic and global stages.”

Transport Secretary Mark Harper said: “It’s vital that the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority has strong leadership to manage and regulate one of the most competitive and innovative aviation sectors in the world, so it’s great to welcome Rob Bishton as the new chief executive officer.

“Rob has been a valuable member of the Civil Aviation Authority since 2014 and has over 30 years of aviation experience.

“It is welcome news to see that work continues to help deliver greater consumer protections, regulate the sector and ensure future innovation is done safely and securely.”

UK

Wetherspoon boss Tim Martin accuses Tories of sidelining business

The pro-enterprise philosophies of Margaret Thatcher, and even Tony Blair, are long gone. 

Daniel Woolfson
Fri, 6 October 2023 

Wetherspoon chairman Tim Martin said the Tories have ‘patently made the UK uncompetitive’ - Heathcliff O'Malley

The boss of JD Wetherspoon has accused the Tories of sidelining businesses as warring factions in the Government clash over its direction ahead of the next election.

Tim Martin, founder and chairman of the high street pub chain, said changes such as Rishi Sunak’s increase to corporation tax from 19pc to 25pc in April this year had made the UK less attractive to investors.

He said: “It’s not so much a ‘failure to support’ [by the Conservatives] as a lack of belief in free enterprise. Corporation tax would be a good example – it used to be taken as read that you needed a tax system that encouraged businesses to set up in this country.

“By pushing up corporation tax so much, the Government has patently made the UK uncompetitive with Ireland and has discouraged foreign investment in the UK.”

On Wednesday, Mr Martin, a prominent backer of Brexit, told LBC Radio that he could now see himself voting for Labour “if they had a decent set of policies”.

It comes just days before Labour’s party conference begins in Liverpool, with Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves having launched a “prawn cocktail offensive 2.0” in an effort to woo business leaders ahead of the next election and take advantage of divisions in the Tory party.

Mr Martin added: “The Tories will have sidelined businesses for sure. Although not many business owners are convinced Labour or the Lib Dems are better.

“In general things have changed. There is less support from the main parties for the benefits of free enterprise and there are less senior politicians who have experience of free enterprise.

“The consequence is greater reliance on governmental action. The pro-enterprise philosophies of Margaret Thatcher, and even Tony Blair, are long gone. We will see where that takes us.”

Growing discontent toward the Tories has been voiced by prominent business leaders in recent weeks. Carpetright founder Lord Harris, a lifelong Tory peer, said last month the party did not “deserve” to win the next election, while Duncan Bannatyne, the health club mogul who previously supported Margaret Thatcher, said he believed Sir Keir was the “best of two bad candidates”, calling Mr Sunak’s handling of the economy “terrible”.

JD Wetherspoon posted record sales on Friday after drinkers sought out more affordable pints due to the cost of living crisis.

The pub chain said revenues rose by 10.6pc to hit £1.9bn last year, as it fought off inflationary pressures to secure its first profit since the pandemic

Mr Martin said the success was thanks to its bid to keep prices lower despite soaring costs.

He said: “Prices have increased, but the gap between Wetherspoon and competitors has been maintained or increased. Competitiveness has been retained.”

Pre-tax profits at the chain rose to £42.6m over the year compared with losses of £30.4m in 2022.

However, they were still lower than pre-pandemic, when they stood at £102.4m.

This led to a 4pc drop in the company’s shares on Friday morning.

However, sales have since rebounded across Wetherspoons’ 800 UK pubs, with drinks up 9pc and food rising 17.7pc. Sales from slot and fruit machines also shot up by 26.4pc.

Israel-Hamas War Casts Shadow Over $43 Billion in Assets as Stocks Slump


Ishika Mookerjee and Filipe Pacheco
Tue, 10 October 2023 

(Bloomberg) -- The conflict between Israel and Hamas has turned the spotlight on billions of dollars in Israel-linked fund assets, as money managers gauge the toll on businesses operating in the war-stricken country.

At least $43 billion is held in Israeli stocks or bonds by passive and actively managed funds tracked by Bloomberg. And that’s taking into account only the funds that have 70% or more of their exposure in Israeli securities. Among the products are US-listed iShares MSCI Israel ETF and ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF, both of which slumped in Wall Street trading on Monday.

Israel’s stocks tumbled with the shekel and local bonds following the sudden attack by Hamas over the weekend. Local assets, traditionally seen as a stable spot in the Middle East, had already been rocked this year after government efforts to weaken the judiciary and ensuing mass protests unsettled markets. Concerns about an escalation of the war are rife.

READ: Israel ETFs in US Fall Most Since March 2020 as Volumes Surge

“Ultimately, it will depend on how long the conflict lasts but investors will demand a bit of a risk premium to invest in Israeli assets for a while,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP. “The question is whether it ushers in a new round of severe terrorist activity or not, and then whether Iran may get involved.”

Israel’s stock benchmark plunged 6.5% on Sunday, its biggest drop in more than three years, before edging higher in the next session. The shekel weakened to the lowest since 2016 against the dollar even after the Bank of Israel unveiled an unprecedented $45 billion program to defend the currency.

The market turmoil brought about the worst day since March 2020 for BlackRock’s $132 million passive fund on Monday. Ark’s fund and the VanEck Israel ETF slumped more than 4%.

With factories and other physical assets looking increasingly vulnerable as the war drags on, investors are watching for disruption to business activities and the earnings fallout.

There are more than 100 Israel-domiciled companies listed on US exchanges including several technology firms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Cybersecurity firm Check Point Software Technologies Ltd., Bank Leumi Le-Israel and chip supplier Nova Ltd. are among those commonly held by foreign investors.

Some of the money managers are determined to ride out the storm.

“We are actively reviewing the risks and exposures of the fund and will make appropriate changes if needed,” said John Gualy, who co-manages the Timothy Plan Israel Common Values Fund. “Opportunities may arise for the Fund given the significant stock moves during these times,” he said.

Gualy added the fund has received “very few questions regarding redemption.”

The selloff may exacerbate should the battle with Hamas spiral into a more devastating proxy war embroiling the US and Iran, the impact of which would reverberate across world markets. Global risk assets have already been reeling from elevated borrowing costs, rising oil prices and a stronger dollar.

If investors are “bearish already and negative news comes and there is an element of surprise, then that has the potential to cause a lot of of damage,” said Olivier d’Assier, head of Asia Pacific applied research at Axioma.

--With assistance from Netty Ismail, Jason Siu and Tammy Taweeugsornpun.